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Padres Sign Robert Suarez

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2021 at 7:32pm CDT

The Padres announced they’ve signed reliever Robert Suárez to a one-year, major league contract. The deal also contains a player option for the 2023 campaign.

Suárez has never appeared in the big leagues. The Venezuela native has spent the past five seasons pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, emerging as a shutdown closer the last two years. Between 2020-21, the right-hander saved 67 games for the Hanshin Tigers. He reportedly attracted some big league interest last offseason on the heels of a 2.24 ERA in 2020, but Suárez elected to return to the Nishinomiya-based club for a second season.

The 30-year-old (31 in March) backed up his prior success with another great showing this year. Suárez dominated to the tune of a 1.16 ERA across 62 1/3 frames. His peripherals were equally impressive, as the righty struck out 25.3% of opposing hitters against a minuscule 3.5% walk percentage.

The Padres have made two bullpen pick-ups this afternoon. Suárez’s deal comes just hours after the team finalized a two-year contract with former Cardinals reliever Luis Garcia.

Cubs Sign Marcus Stroman

By Anthony Franco and Tim Dierkes | December 1, 2021 at 7:19pm CDT

The Cubs have agreed to terms with free agent starter Marcus Stroman, the team has now officially announced. The Tidal Sports client will receive a three-year, $71MM contract with an opt-out after the second season, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Passan says Stroman will earn $25MM plus a potential $2MM in escalators in each of the two seasons before he must decide whether to opt out of the remaining $21MM. The contract does not contain a no-trade clause, MLBTR has learned.

After opting out of the 2020 campaign, Stroman accepted an $18.9MM qualifying offer from the Mets last winter. Stroman’s bet has paid off with a guarantee of $89.9MM over his first four free agent seasons spanning 2021-24. Entering the offseason, MLBTR ranked Stroman the #11 free agent overall, projecting him to receive a five-year, $110MM guarantee.

With Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray all off the board, Stroman looks the best bet remaining to provide above-average innings over the next few years. However, unless the Cubs add significant pieces, Stroman’s timeline doesn’t seem to match up with the club’s next window of contention, given the surprisingly short term and the opt-out clause. On the other hand, the unexpected contract structure means the Cubs won’t be saddled with Stroman’s age-34 and 35 seasons as they would have with a five-year pact.

The 30-year-old Stroman doesn’t feature the high-octane, strikeout stuff those other top arms possess. Yet he’s nevertheless been a mid-rotation or better starter for essentially his entire career, thriving on the back of huge ground-ball rates. Stroman has induced grounders on over half the balls in play against him in every season as a big leaguer. His 50.8% mark in 2021 was a personal-low, but even that checked in about seven points above the league average for starters.

Those huge ground-ball tendencies — he was consistently over 60% in that category during his run with the Blue Jays — have kept Stroman largely immune to the increasing home run rate around the league. He’s never had a season allowing even one longball per nine innings pitched, an impressive achievement as the typical starter has allowed between 1.2 and 1.5 homers per nine over the past few years.

Stroman also owns strong control of his arsenal, headlined by a worm-burning sinker he uses a bit more than 40% of the time. He’s never had a season with a higher than average walk percentage, including an even 6% mark in 2021 that was a couple points lower than the 7.8% league rate. Beyond his fastball, the right-hander mixed in a slider, split and cutter more than 15% of the time, according to Statcast.

That repertoire has served Stroman well, as he’s reliably produced in recent seasons. He’s worked to a sub-4.00 ERA in four of his six seasons with 100+ innings pitched, including a personal-best 3.02 mark over 179 frames in 2021. Despite an atypically small frame for a starter, Stroman has also proven a consistent workhorse capable of shouldering fairly significant workloads. He’s started 32+ games and exceeded 175 innings in four of the past five full seasons, with his 19 starts and 102 1/3 frames in 2018 the lone exception. Going back to the start of 2016, he ranks fifteenth in innings pitched league-wide.

As an added bonus, Stroman is coming off his best season from a swing-and-miss perspective. He generated whiffs on a career-high 11.6% of his offerings in 2021, just north of the league mark. The New York native is typically below-average from both a strikeout and swinging strike perspective. But he’s proven capable of succeeding without many whiffs, and any uptick in swing-and-miss stuff could take his game to the next level.

In Chicago, Stroman will pair with Kyle Hendricks at the top of the rotation. Wade Miley has a spot locked down, with Adbert Alzolay also looking likely to claim a back-end spot. There’s certainly still room for upgrades over the likes of Justin Steele and Alec Mills, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, general manager Carter Hawkins and the rest of the front office further bolster that group.

Speculatively speaking, a high-strikeout arm might still be on the wish list. While Stroman’s an unquestionable upgrade to the rotation, his grounder and control oriented style broadly aligns with those of the rest of the Cubs’ starters. Chicago’s rotation ranked eighth in ground-ball rate in 2021 but finished third from the bottom in strikeout percentage. Adding some more swing-and-miss to that group could be desirable, although it’s also broadly apparent that the Cubs are content to pursue ground-ball pitchers and rely on the infield behind them to turn batted balls into outs.

The Cubs are in an organizational transition period, having traded away the core members of their 2016 World Series winner over the past year or so. The roster still seems to have too many holes to compete in 2022, with uncertainty at the back of the rotation and the position player group featuring a handful of journeyman stopgap types. Hoyer has consistently pushed back against the idea the Cubs were orchestrating a full rebuild, though, and their actions this offseason reflect that.

In addition to the Stroman signing, the Cubs claimed Miley off waivers from the division-rival Reds and added backstop Yan Gomes on a two-year pact. That doesn’t preclude further trades off the big league roster — the Gomes signing seems to make a Willson Contreras deal particularly likely, for instance — but it’s clear the Cubs aren’t content to sit at the bottom of the NL Central without making any sort of effort to be competitive.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits players from receiving multiple qualifying offers over the course of their career. Because the Mets tagged Stroman with a QO over the 2020-21 winter, they weren’t able to do so this time around. They’ll allow him to depart without receiving any form of compensation, while the Cubs won’t forfeit any draft choices or international signing bonus space to bring him in. That’s no doubt appealing for a Chicago team that needs to continue to add an influx of young talent to the organization.

Matt Spiegel reported this afternoon that the sides were in discussions, while Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted the parties were “in serious talks” shortly before Stroman’s announcement.

Why Subscribe To Trade Rumors Front Office?

By Tim Dierkes | December 1, 2021 at 7:10pm CDT

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Mariners Interested In Trevor Story

By James Hicks | December 1, 2021 at 7:02pm CDT

Per Robert Murray of Fansided, the Mariners have expressed interest in free agent shortstop Trevor Story. This comes in addition to earlier reports that Kris Bryant had also drawn their attention. Evidently, their recent acquisitions of second baseman Adam Frazier (from the Padres) and 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray (who they gave a five-year, $115MM deal) hasn’t slaked Seattle’s interest in acquiring a big-ticket bat to anchor a lineup set to lose longtime third baseman Kyle Seager.

The M’s had previously been linked to Story, though Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times suggested a few weeks ago they’d have preferred to utilize him as a second baseman (where he’d have paired with incumbent shortstop J.P. Crawford, one of a small handful of shortstop with defensive chops that compare to Story’s) in an effort to keep his throwing arm healthy. With the arrival of Frazier, this option is presumably off the table, though it’s possible that the Mariners could also ask him to play third. Buster Olney of ESPN reported last night that he’d also heard buzz regarding Seattle hoping to sign a third baseman, listing Story, Bryant, and Carlos Correa (another stellar defender who’d have to move off short) as possibilities.

With a lockout almost certainly only a few hours away, it’s looking increasingly likely that Story will have to wait until the labor dispute is resolved before signing, though that would hardly rule the Mariners out. They headed into the offseason with only $14.65MM in guaranteed 2022 contracts on the books (a number expected to reach only about $40MM after accounting for arbitration salaries) and a young squad that had playoff aspirations headed into the season’s final week. Though the signing of Ray obviously sends their payroll number northward, they should have room for at least one more major signing — and quite possibly more.

Indeed, with money to spend and a talented squad, the future is likely bright in Seattle. Beyond Seager and starter Yusei Kikuchi, the Mariners will return all of their major contributors from 2021. They should also be able to count on a greater contribution from 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis — who was limited to 36 games after a deep bone bruise suffered in Spring Training held him out for the season’s first month and a meniscus tear ended his season a bit over a month later — and will look forward to the graduation of several members of their stacked farm system (No. 2 in the bigs, per MLB Pipeline), including outfielder Julio Rodriguez (behind only Adley Rutschman in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100).

Though he’ll fall well short of the $325MM commitment the Rangers gave to Corey Seager, Story would still cost the Mariners a pretty penny. MLBTR predicts he’ll get a six-year deal with a $126MM guarantee, which would make him and Ray the Mariners’ highest-paid players on an annual basis by more than $15MM each.

As with any player who’s spent his career at Coors Field, Story’s home/road splits are an essential evaluative caveat. His career OPS at Coors Field (.972) dwarfs his OPS on the road (.752). Story’s park-adjusted OPS+ numbers — 103 in 2021, 112 for his career — suggest a strong hitter, but they don’t quite match a player with a career line of .272/.340/.523. He’s also entering his age-29 season and coming off an elbow injury that cut into his power numbers in 2021, so decline is likely to be a serious concern to any team considering handing Story a long-term deal.

Blue Jays, Mets Among Teams Interested In Yusei Kikuchi

By Darragh McDonald | December 1, 2021 at 6:20pm CDT

6:20 PM: Though he doesn’t have specifics on offers made by the Mets and Jays, Heyman further reports that Kikuchi has multiple three-year offers on the table. Whether those offers are from either Toronto or New York — or whether he signs before the near-certain lockout in a few hours — remains to be seen.

9:58 AM: The starting pitching market has been red hot of late as teams have been trying to bolster their rotations before the current CBA expires tonight, which is widely expected to lead to a lockout and transaction freeze. One intriguing name that remains available is Yusei Kikuchi. The lefty has attracted the attention of the Blue Jays, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, as well as the Mets, per Andy Martino of SNY.

Kikuchi, 30, is one of the more difficult pitchers to value on the market. After a dominant run in Japan’s NPB over eight seasons, Kikuchi was signed by the Mariners but struggled in his first MLB season in 2019. In 161 2/3 innings that year, his ERA was 5.46, along with a ground ball rate of 44% and meager strikeout rate of 16.1%. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he dropped his ERA only slightly, to 5.17. However, his strikeout rate jumped to 24.2% and his groundball rate to 52%, perhaps indicating that better results were ahead.

For the first few months of 2021, Kikuchi seemed to hit his stride. By July, he was pitching so well that it seemed the Mariners had a tough decision on their hands, as explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams. At that time, Kikuchi had an ERA of 3.18, strikeout rate of 25.4% and 53.8% grounder rate. It started to seem possible that the club could trigger a four-year option over Kikuchi, that would pay him $66MM for the 2022-2025 seasons. However, Kikuchi faded down the stretch, posting a 6.22 ERA, 23.3 strikeout rate and 10.3 BB% from July 7th onward, getting bumped from the rotation before the season ended. In the end, the Mariners passed on their option, leaving Kikuchi to decide whether or not to trigger a $13MM player option for the 2022 season. Despite his sluggish finish this year, he decided to leave that money on the table and test free agency. MLBTR ranked him 34th among this year’s free agents, predicting a contract of $20MM over two years.

The Blue Jays’ rotation took a couple of hits in recent weeks, as Robbie Ray and Steven Matz departed for the Mariners and Cardinals, respectively. However, they mitigated the damage somewhat by signing Kevin Gausman to slot in next to Jose Berrios, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah. Although they have options for the fifth slot, such as Ross Stripling, Nate Pearson and Thomas Hatch, Stripling has often been used as a swingman out of the bullpen, while Pearson and Hatch are still young and dealt with injuries in 2021. Adding Kikuchi could bump those options to the bullpen or the minors and improve the overall depth of the staff.

The Mets have been one of the most active teams in free agency lately, going on a spending spree that included the pickups of Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. That has pushed the team’s 2022 payroll to a massive $263MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Prior to Steve Cohen purchasing the team a year ago, the franchise record payroll was $158MM in 2019. To sign Kikuchi, they would likely have to continue pushing their budget to new record-breaking levels. If they are willing to do so, Kikuchi would add an extra safety net to a rotation that is high on talent but which also has injury concerns, as Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco both missed significant time in 2021. Scherzer, deGrom, Carrasco and Taijuan Walker would take up four rotation spots, if healthy, with younger options like Tylor Megill and David Peterson on hand as likely candidates for the backend.

Royals Sign Taylor Clarke To Major League Deal

By Anthony Franco and Sean Bavazzano | December 1, 2021 at 6:20pm CDT

The Royals have signed right-hander Taylor Clarke to a major league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link). It’s a $975K deal, per Heyman. Clarke was non-tendered last night by the D-Backs.

The 28-year-old Clarke spent the bulk of last season pitching out of the Arizona bullpen to mostly pedestrian results. Through 43 innings the right-hander sported a 4.98 ERA with below average strikeout and groundball rates. Some of Clarke’s underlying stats may portend a turnaround at the Major League level, however. Among them, a .350 BABIP was well above the league average, indicating some poor batted ball luck. Clarke’s FIP too stood at just 3.54, indicating his bottom-line results may slide closer to respectability with more reps.

For just a 6-digit investment the Royals have little to lose by taking a chance on Clarke. In fact, if the right-hander proves to be anything close to a league average arm this deal stands a strong chance of looking quite shrewd. After all, Clarke is controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration and can be a long-term option for a Royals club that’s angling to hop back into contention.

Twins Sign Dylan Bundy

By James Hicks and Anthony Franco | December 1, 2021 at 5:45pm CDT

The Twins announced they’ve signed starter Dylan Bundy to a one-year deal with a club option for 2023. The BBI Sports Group client will reportedly be guaranteed $5MM, taking the form of a $4MM salary in 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on the $11MM option.

Bundy profiles as a buy-low option for a Minnesota club that needs to significantly overhaul its rotation this winter. The former top prospect had settled in as an up-and-down but capable starter with the Orioles over his first few seasons before seemingly realizing his long-awaited breakout in 2020. Acquired by the Angels over the previous offseason, Bundy worked 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball with a strong 27% strikeout rate during the truncated season.

Entering 2021, Bundy looked to be one of the more appealing arms in this winter’s free agent class. Few players’ stocks were dealt a more significant hit over the intervening months, though, as the right-hander struggled with both underperformance and injury. Bundy pitched to a 6.78 ERA over the season’s first three months, eventually being relegated to the bullpen.

His strikeout percentage dropped six points prior to his bullpen conversion, while he allowed an alarming 2.1 homers per nine innings pitched. That was in line with issues keeping the ball in the yard he’d experienced in Baltimore, a significant turnaround from the 0.69 HR/9 he posted during his first season in Orange County.

The move to the bullpen didn’t work as intended, as the Oklahoma native continued to struggle in shorter stints. Making matters worse, he hit the injured list with a shoulder strain in late August. While he’d initially expressed hope regarding a potential return, that proved impossible. Ultimately, Bundy hit free agency for the first time coming off a career-worst 6.06 ERA and an extended absence due to an arm injury.

There’s no doubt the 2021 campaign was a “Murphy’s law” type season. Yet Bundy’s only a year removed from looking like at least a mid-rotation caliber arm, and there’s not a whole lot of financial risk for the Twins in hoping for a bounceback. With Kenta Maeda likely to miss much of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Twins have very little stability in the starting staff. Bailey Ober looks likely to have one spot after a quietly strong 2021 campaign, while rookie Joe Ryan pitched well down the stretch. There’s still plenty of need for more reliability in that group moving forward, and it’s likely president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, general manager Thad Levine and the rest of the front office will continue to scour the free agent and trade markets for starting pitching help.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported contract terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Sign Luis Garcia

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2021 at 4:53pm CDT

The Padres have announced agreement with free agent reliever Luis García on a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $7MM guarantee.

The multi-year deal is a nice pull for García, who entered the 2021 campaign as a non-roster invitee with the Yankees. After failing to crack New York’s season-opening roster, he spent the first couple months of the season in Triple-A. García triggered an opt-out clause in that deal and landed a big league roster spot with the Cardinals in July.

The 34-year-old (35 in January) made the most of his half-season in St. Louis. He worked 33 1/3 innings of 3.24 ERA ball across 34 outings, earning his way into higher-leverage work by September. García fanned a slightly above-average 25.2% of opposing hitters while walking only 5.9% of batters faced. That was handily the best control he’s ever shown, as García typically walked batters at a higher than average rate during his time as an inconsistent middle innings option with the Phillies earlier in his career.

Even more impressive than his bottom line results were his pitch-by-pitch numbers. García generated swinging strikes on 14.9% of his offerings, a mark that’s more than three percentage points above the 11.7% league average for relievers. That’s largely on the strength of his slider, which opponents rather comically missed more than half the time they offered at it. That was his primary complement against right-handed hitters to a sinker that averaged greater than 98 MPH, while he also found plenty of success mixing in a split against lefty batters.

It remains to be seen whether García can sustain his half-season success moving forward — particularly the seeming strides he made with his control. It’s a fairly inexpensive gamble on a live arm for the Friars, with García having the opportunity to cement himself into the club’s late-innings mix. With previous closer Mark Melancon departing to join the division-rival Diamondbacks, Pierce Johnson, Tim Hill, Emilio Pagán and Austin Adams look to be the other top options for new skipper Bob Melvin.

Robert Murray of FanSided reported the agreement and its terms shortly before the official announcement.

Diamondbacks Sign Mark Melancon

By Anthony Franco and James Hicks | December 1, 2021 at 4:09pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have added a proven closer to their murky bullpen mix, signing reliever Mark Melancon to a two-year contract with a $14MM guarantee. The ISE Baseball client will receive a salary of $6MM in both 2022 and 2023. The deal also comes with a $5MM mutual option for 2024, which includes a $2MM buyout.

Melancon is coming off his seventh career sub-3.00 ERA season — his second in as many years. After signing with the Padres for a comparatively paltry one year and $3MM shortly before the start of 2021 Spring Training, the four-time All-Star led the big leagues in saves for the second time in his career, notching 39 in 64 appearances.

Though something of a journeyman — and hardly a flamethrower by today’s standards — Melancon has established himself as one of the game’s most consistently effective relievers. Across a 13-year career with the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Pirates, Nationals, Giants, Braves, and Padres, Melancon has covered 670 2/3 innings with a sparkling 2.79 ERA (2.94 FIP). His 244 saves ranked fourth among active players, behind only Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Aroldis Chapman.

Unusually unreliant on the strikeout for a closer (his 22.6% strikeout rate barely exceeds the major league average of 20.6%), Melancon relies on an elevated ground ball rate (56.4%; league average is 43.8%) to limit the longball; indeed, his home run rate of 1.4% is less than half the 2.9% big-league average. Though now entering his age-37 season, these trends have shown no signs of decline; since 2019, Melancon’s GB% and HR% are 58.7% and 1.4%, respectively — right in line with his career numbers.

Though he hasn’t had a poor season since at least 2012, when he posted a 6.20 ERA (4.58 FIP) in Boston, Melancon has experienced something of a late-career resurgence. From 2013 to 2016, he put together 290 innings of 1.80 ERA ball — good for an eye-popping 213 ERA+ — to go along with 147 saves for the Pirates and Nationals, including a majors-leading 51 for Pittsburgh in 2015. He turned those numbers into a four-year, $62MM pact with the Giants after the 2016 season, though a blood flow issue limited his availability and effectiveness. In 115 1/3 innings in San Francisco, Melancon compiled a still-solid 3.67 ERA (3.32 FIP) before heading to Atlanta in a deadline-day trade in 2019. He’s since pitched 108 1/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball between the Braves and Padres.

The move to Phoenix represents something of a homecoming for Melancon, who played college ball at the University of Arizona in Tucson. The move is at least a bit surprising, though, as D-backs GM Mike Hazen had frankly admitted the club is unlikely to in contend 2022. Coming off an NL-worst 52-110 record in 2021, Arizona looks at least a few years from contention, even as several of their top players (Ketel Marte, Zac Gallen, Carson Kelly) are under team control for several years to come.

Arizona will hope that Melancon can stabilize a bullpen in need of a few more arms but with several serviceable pieces. Caleb Smith, Noe Ramirez, and J.B. Wendelken will return after solid years, and 23-year-old Luis Frias will look to build on a promising debut in 2021. Few other relievers were able to string multiple solid outings together, however, as the club finished third from the bottom with a 5.08 ERA on the year — ahead of only the Nationals and Orioles.

The Diamondbacks may not contend in 2022, but Hazen’s decision to give real (if comparatively modest) money to Melancon could signal that he’s sincere in his stated preference to hold onto his best young players. Marte in particular would return a king’s ransom, but Arizona does have a top-10 farm system (No. 9, per MLB Pipeline) that includes three top-50 prospects in Jordan Lawlar, Corbin Carroll, and Alek Thomas (though only Thomas is close to big-league-ready).

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Melancon’s $6MM 2022 salary will put the D-backs just north of $55MM in salary commitments for 2022 (excluding salaries for players eligible for arbitration), a big step down from last year’s roughly $96MM number. Hazen’s comments likely signal that the club intends to remain below that number, but he will like have space to continue to add should he choose to do so.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was the first to report the signing; Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the guaranteed money; and Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic tweeted Melancon’s annual salaries and the terms of his option.

Bullpen Notes: Rodriguez, Peralta, Strickland, Shaw, Marlins

By Mark Polishuk | December 1, 2021 at 3:29pm CDT

Right-hander Richard Rodriguez was one of the more prominent names cut loose before last night’s non-tender deadline, and now that the Braves have parted ways with the reliever, Jason Mackey of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (Twitter link) that the Pirates are interested in bringing Rodriguez back to the Steel City. Rodriguez posted strong numbers throughout his three-plus seasons in the Pirates’ bullpen, which made him a hot commodity heading into the July trade deadline. While Rodriguez’s peripherals didn’t back up his excellent on-field performance to begin this season, the Bucs were still able to move him to Atlanta for two young arms on July 30.

The righty still managed a 3.12 ERA during his 26 innings for the Braves, but Rodriguez’s home run rate skyrocketed and his strikeout rate dropped off the map to only 8.5%. Atlanta didn’t use Rodriguez during the playoffs, and non-tendered him rather than pay a projected $3.1MM arbitration salary. On paper, it would seem like a reunion between Rodriguez and the Pirates would work out well for both sides, as the Bucs would gain some more relief depth, and Rodriguez would try to get himself on track in a familiar environment.

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