Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers went into the offseason with a strong team, but on the pitching heavy side. They spent their offseason trying to add more pop to the lineup without spending much money.
Major League Signings
- Andrew McCutchen, OF: one year, $8.5MM
- Brad Boxberger, RP: one year, $2.5MM (deal also contains 2023 club option)
- Pedro Severino, C: one year, $1.9MM
- Trevor Gott, RP: split deal
- Brett Sullivan, C/OF: one year deal; later traded to Padres
2022 spending: $12.9MM
Total spending: $12.9MM
Options Exercised
- OF Jackie Bradley Jr. exercised $9.5MM player option; later traded to Red Sox
- OF Avisail Garcia declined his end of $12MM mutual option in favor of $2MM buyout
Trades and Claims
- Acquired IF/OF Mike Brosseau from Rays for RP Evan Reifert
- Acquired SP/RP J.C. Mejia from Guardians for C David Fry (originally announced as PTBNL or cash)
- Acquired OF Hunter Renfroe from Red Sox for OF Jackie Bradley Jr., IF David Hamilton and IF Alex Binelas
- Acquired C Victor Caratini and cash considerations from Padres for C/OF Brett Sullivan and OF Korry Howell
- Acquired C Alex Jackson from Marlins for IF Hayden Cantrelle and SP Alexis Ramirez
- Traded IF/OF Jamie Westbrook to Tigers for cash.
- Traded OF Dustin Peterson to Phillies for cash.
Notable Minor League Signings
- Jason Alexander, Trevor Kelley, Jonathan Davis, Rex Brothers, Abraham Almonte, David Dahl, Jonathan Singleton, Tyler White, Moises Gomez, Garrett Whitley, Jakson Reetz, Jose Urena (later selected to 40-man roster)
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Avisail Garcia, Eduardo Escobar, Manny Pina, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brett Anderson, Hunter Strickland, Luke Maile, Daniel Vogelbach, Daniel Norris, Daniel Robertson, Colin Rea, John Axford
The Brewers had an excellent regular season in 2021, going 95-67, winning the NL Central and making the postseason for a fourth straight year. However, they did it in a very slanted way, dominating on the hill but not hitting much. The pitching staff had an ERA of 3.50, third best in the majors, trailing only the Dodgers and Giants. The rotation had a dominant front three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, along with solid contributions at the back end from Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser and Brett Anderson. The bullpen featured excellent hurlers like Josh Hader, Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger.
However, the offense wasn’t nearly as impressive. The team’s overall batting line was .233/.317/.396, producing a wRC+ of 91, or 9% below average, 23rd out of the 30 teams. This uneven attack was on display in the playoffs, when the Brewers faced off against the Braves. Milwaukee eked out the first game with a 2-1 victory, thanks to six shutout innings from Corbin Burnes. But they lost the next three games by scores of 3-0, 3-0 and 5-4. It’s tough for a dominant pitching staff to carry a team with six runs of support over four games. With Avisail Garcia, Eduardo Escobar, and Manny Pina heading into free agency at season’s end, there would be work to do in the offseason just to break even.
Of course, there wasn’t going to be a mountain of money to work with, as the Brewers have never been a high payroll team. Up until a few years ago, their highest Opening Day payroll was $104MM. They shot up to $123MM in 2019 but then back down to $99MM for 2021. (Figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) The club’s president of baseball operations David Stearns has still managed to field competitive teams despite these limitations, which is why he’s attracted the attention of rival teams.
Early in the offseason, Stearns seemed to be a popular target of the Mets, as they looked to hire a new general manager or president. It was thought that there would be a chance the Brewers would let Stearns, a New York native, pursue the opportunity due to the fact that 2022 is the last year of his current contract. However, reports emerged in October that Stearns may have a vesting option for 2023. Whether that was a factor or not, the Brewers denied the Mets permission to interview Stearns for the job that eventually went to Billy Eppler. Further clarity on the contract situation came in February, when it was reported that Stearns is actually under control through 2023 but can opt out after this year if the Brewers win the National League pennant.
As the offseason began and business kicked off, the Brewers signed Trevor Gott to a split deal to bolster their relief corps. Jackie Bradley Jr. exercised his player option. Avisail Garcia declined his $12MM mutual option, taking the $2MM buyout and hitting free agency. The Brewers had a chance to issue a qualifying offer to Garcia but ultimately decided against it. He would later sign with the Marlins on a four-year, $53MM contract, with the Brewers getting nothing in return.
In mid-November, the Brewers swung a trade, acquiring Mike Brosseau from the Rays in exchange for minor-league pitcher Evan Reifert. The utilityman had shown some potential in his first couple of seasons, hitting .284/.343/.500 over 240 plate appearances in 2019-20 while playing all over the diamond. He slid from that level in 2021, ending up with a line of .187/.266/.347, 73 wRC+. Still, the prospect cost was minimal and Brosseau hasn’t yet reached arbitration. If he can bounce back to anywhere near his earlier production, he could be a bargain. With a projected infield of Willy Adames, Luis Urias (who wound opening the season in the injured list), Kolten Wong and Rowdy Tellez, along with a projected outfield of Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Tyrone Taylor, Brosseau would slot into the bench/utility mix with Jace Peterson.
After Manny Pina signed with the Braves, the Brew Crew needed to find a new catcher to pair with Omar Narvaez. They settled on Pedro Severino but he was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for the performance-enhancing substance Clomiphene. With just days until Opening Day, the club quickly pivoted and acquired both Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson to improve the depth behind the plate. Caratini showed some potential with the bat when he popped 11 homers in 2019 but fell off in the following two campaigns. With a $2MM arbitration salary and an additional year of team control, he’s another low-cost flier for the club.
Just before the lockout was set to kick in, the Brewers traded Bradley and a couple of prospects to the Red Sox for Hunter Renfroe. This served Milwaukee’s needs in a couple of ways. First, Bradley is making $9.5MM in 2022 and had a dismal season at the plate the year before. In 2021, he hit .163/.236/.261, with his 35 wRC+ being easily the worst in baseball among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. (Kevin Newman‘s 54 was next on the list). Renfroe was arbitration-eligible and eventually settled with the Brewers at $7.65MM, meaning he’ll be cheaper than Bradley and more productive with the bat. He hit .259/.315/.501 for the Red Sox last year, putting up a wRC+ of 114.
After the lockout, the club’s first move was to re-sign Brad Boxberger, returning him to a high-leverage role in the bullpen with Hader and Williams. The righty threw 64 2/3 innings in 2021, with a 3.34 ERA and 31.2% strikeout rate. Milwaukee also added veteran righty Jose Urena on a minor league deal and selected him to the big league club the next day. Urena, who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, is on hand as a multi-inning relief option.
They then made their biggest signing of the offseason, adding 35-year-old Andrew McCutchen on a one-year, $8.5MM deal. McCutchen’s days of elite outfield defense are behind him, but he can still hit. Over the past two seasons, his slash line is .232/.331/.441, 106 wRC+. But he was especially effective against lefties, with a line of .290/.402/.603 in 2020-21, producing a wRC+ of 164.
While McCutchen is still a fine player, there were plenty of younger and more productive outfield options available in free agency this winter. Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Starling Marte, Seiya Suzuki, Jorge Soler, Mark Canha, Michael Conforto (still unsigned), Eddie Rosario and others were all available. In the end, the Brewers avoided any big or lengthy commitments, settling on an Opening Day payroll of $132MM, a new franchise record but still in the bottom half of the league.
Milwaukee didn’t need to do much on the pitching side of things. Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer and Houser all remained under club control. Top prospect Aaron Ashby is ready to replace Anderson — who hit free agency — as the top depth option for the starting staff. Milwaukee brought Boxberger back and never seemed to seriously consider dealing Hader even as his arbitration price continued to rise. The Brew Crew’s elite arms are back.
On the other side of the ball, Garcia, Escobar, Pina, Daniel Vogelbach (whom the club non-tendered) and Jackie Bradley Jr. have been replaced by Renfroe, McCutchen, Brosseau and Caratini. Whether those moves have improved the offense enough can be debated. What would certainly help is if some of the holdovers could have better results. Christian Yelich was mediocre in the past two seasons, when compared to his 2018-19 peak. Lorenzo Cain had three mostly lost years from 2019-21. Keston Hiura has failed to deliver since his exciting 2019 debut. The Brewers enter 2022 as a pitching-oriented team, but their chances of making a deep playoff run would be greatly enhanced if they can coax returns to form from some of those players.
Mariners Select Mike Ford
The Mariners announced this evening they’ve selected first baseman Mike Ford to the major league club. Catcher/designated hitter Luis Torrens has been placed on the COVID-19 injured list in a corresponding move. (Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times first reported the transactions). Seattle’s 40-man roster remains full.
Ford signed a minor league pact with Seattle over the offseason. The Princeton product broke in with an impressive .259/.350/.559 showing in 163 plate appearances with the Yankees in 2019, but he’s scuffled over the past couple seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, Ford has mustered just a .134/.250/.276 line in 156 trips to the dish. He bounced from the Yankees to the Rays to the Nationals in the second half of last season. Washington non-tendered Ford at the end of the year.
The 29-year-old has gotten out to a nice start with Triple-A Tacoma this season. He’s hitting .317/.404/.488 with more walks than strikeouts through eleven games. That earns him another big league call, where he’ll add a left-handed bat to the bench for skipper Scott Servais.
The Mariners didn’t specify whether Ford is being promoted as a “substitute player.” Under the 2022 health and safety protocols, commissioner Rob Manfred has the sole discretion to determine whether teams are sufficiently impacted by COVID-19 to add a substitute to the roster. In either case, players on the COVID IL won’t count against the 40-man roster, but only designated substitutes can be removed from the 40-man without passing through waivers when affected players return. Mitch Haniger is also on the COVID-19 IL after testing positive over the weekend.
Reds Place Jonathan India, Mike Moustakas On Injured List
The Reds announced they’ve placed infielders Jonathan India and Mike Moustakas on the 10-day injured list. India has a right hamstring strain, while Moustakas has a right biceps strain. In corresponding moves, Cincinnati recalled outfielder TJ Friedl and selected infielder JT Riddle from Triple-A Louisville. The Reds had a vacancy on the 40-man roster after placing outfielder Tyler Naquin on the COVID-19 IL last night.
India’s IL placement is retroactive to April 16, meaning he could first return a week from today. The 25-year-old hasn’t played since last Thursday, but the Reds have held off on placing him on the IL until this evening. That’d seemingly indicate Cincinnati doesn’t anticipate there being a lengthy absence, but India will require a bit more recovery time. The defending NL Rookie of the Year has just seven hits — six singles and a double — through his first 30 plate appearances.
Moustakas was scratched from last night’s starting lineup because of the biceps issue. After the game, manager David Bell told reporters (link via C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic) he anticipated the veteran would return to the lineup tonight. That obviously won’t be the case, as Moustakas is now out until the middle of next week. He’s off to a rough start to the year, going 4-31 with 13 strikeouts.
The Reds were already without shortstop José Barrero and offseason signee Donovan Solano. The infield mix is very thin at this point, with Brandon Drury, Colin Moran and Alejo López the top options for playing time. Moran and López are getting the nods at third and second base, respectively, for tonight’s game against the Padres.
Riddle adds some extra infield depth behind that group. Signed to a minor league deal over the offseason, the left-handed hitter cracks the majors for the sixth consecutive season. Riddle was a fairly frequently-used role player with the 2017-19 Marlins, but he’s picked up just brief cups of coffee with the Pirates and Twins over the past two seasons. Over 793 big league plate appearances, he owns a .223/.261/.355 slash line. Riddle has gotten out to a strong start in Louisville, hitting a pair of homers and doubles apiece en route to a .258/.333/.516 mark in nine games.
In more fortunate Reds injury news, starter Luis Castillo threw 35 pitches during a live batting practice session today, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The All-Star righty is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.
Orioles Designate DJ Stewart For Assignment
The Orioles announced this evening they’ve designated outfielder DJ Stewart for assignment. The move clears a 40-man roster spot for right-hander Chris Ellis, who has been selected back to the majors. Baltimore optioned righty Marcos Diplán yesterday to clear space on the active roster.
Stewart has been in the Baltimore organization since they selected him 25th overall in the 2015 draft. A left-handed hitter with quality plate discipline and some power, he once profiled as a potential everyday left fielder. Stewart performed well up through Double-A, although his offensive production trended down once he hit Triple-A Norfolk for the first time in 2018.
Despite a .235/.329/.387 showing with Norfolk that year, Stewart got his first MLB call. He only appeared in 17 games, but he’d tally more than 100 trips to the plate in each of the next three seasons. Stewart hit seven homers with a massive 17.9% walk rate in 31 outings in 2020, but he’s otherwise posted below-average numbers. Last season, he tallied a career-high 318 trips to the plate and hit .204/.324/.374, popping 12 homers while walking nearly 14% of the time but striking out in 28% of his trips to the dish.
Paired with a lack of defensive value, Stewart’s low batting average eventually squeezed him out of the outfield mix in Baltimore. The O’s optioned him early this season, and they’ve now bumped him from the 40-man roster entirely. They’ll have a week to trade him or try to run him through waivers.
Ellis made six starts for Baltimore last season after they claimed him off waivers from the division-rival Rays. He posted a 2.49 ERA in 25 1/3 innings, but neither his 15.2% strikeout rate nor 12.4% walk percentage indicated he’d sustain that kind of run prevention. The O’s outrighted him off their 40-man roster at the end of the season, but Ellis quickly returned on a minor league pact.
So far this year, he’s made just one start with Norfolk. He worked four scoreless, hitless innings with five strikeouts and a walk. Ellis will take the ball tonight against the A’s for his first big league outing of the season.
Diamondbacks Claim Jacob Webb, Designate Stuart Fairchild
The D-Backs announced this afternoon they’ve claimed reliever Jacob Webb off waivers from the Braves. To create space on the 40-man roster, they designated outfielder Stuart Fairchild for assignment.
Atlanta had somewhat surprisingly designated Webb for assignment last week. The 28-year-old has generally been an effective bullpen piece over the past few seasons, tossing 76 2/3 innings of 2.47 ERA ball since debuting in 2019. That included a sterling 1.39 mark in 32 1/3 frames as a rookie, although Webb’s peripherals that season were more ordinary. Unfortunately, Webb spent notable chunks of each of his first couple seasons on the injured list. In 2019, went down in August with a season-ending elbow impingement. The following year, he missed the first month and a half of the shortened schedule because of a shoulder strain.
Webb returned to health last season and worked 34 1/3 frames with a 4.19 ERA. His 21.6% strikeout rate is a few points below the MLB average, but that belies some excellent swing-and-miss numbers on a per-pitch basis. Webb racked up swinging strikes on 15.6% of his offerings last year, one of the top marks around the league.
Arizona will take a low-risk flier to see if he can translate that whiff rate into a few more punchouts and settle into the middle innings. The D-Backs had one of the league’s worst bullpens last season, giving Webb plenty of opportunity to stake a claim to a spot. He has a minor league option year remaining as well, so the Snakes can shuttle him between Arizona and Triple-A Reno for the remainder of the year if he sticks on the 40-man roster.
Fairchild loses his spot on the 40-man roster and will be traded or placed on waivers within the next week. A second-round pick of the Reds in 2017, he was dealt to the D-Backs alongside the since-traded Josh VanMeter at the 2020 deadline for reliever Archie Bradley. Fairchild posted a strong .295/.385/.564 line in 44 games with Reno last year to earn his first MLB call, but he only appeared in 12 contests with Arizona.
Optioned back to Triple-A to open this season, Fairchild has gotten off to a miserable start. He’s hitting .162/.279/.378 in 43 trips to the dish, striking out 15 times. In the wake of that rough start, the D-Backs decided to bump Fairchild off the roster. He still has a pair of options and can cover all three outfield positions, so it’s not out of the question a team that liked the 26-year-old as a prospect takes a shot on him.
Rangers Designate Greg Holland For Assignment
The Rangers announced this afternoon they’ve designated reliever Greg Holland for assignment. The move clears an active roster spot for starter Jon Gray, who has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list to start tonight’s ballgame against the Mariners. Texas’ 40-man roster now sits at 39.
Holland broke camp with Texas after signing a minor league deal over the winter. The veteran righty got off to a tough start to the season, however, allowing five runs on six hits (including three homers) with a walk and five strikeouts through 4 2/3 innings. Rangers’ brass elected not to give him much time to try to work through those struggles, instead bumping him off the roster.
The 36-year-old didn’t have a ton of leeway after struggling to a 4.85 ERA in 55 2/3 frames with the Royals last year. Holland had posted a sterling 1.91 mark in 28 games during the shortened 2020 schedule, but he hasn’t managed to build off that success the past couple years. Holland was a three-time All-Star and one of the sport’s best few relievers during his prime in Kansas City, but he posted an ERA of 4.54 or higher in the three other campaigns between 2018-21.
Texas will have a week to trade Holland or place him on waivers. He has more than enough experience to refuse an outright assignment and elect minor league free agency if he passes through waivers unclaimed. That’d seem the likeliest outcome, at which point Holland could explore offers from other teams.
Gray is back after a minimal IL stint due to a blister on his pitching hand. Signed to a four-year deal over the winter, he tossed four innings of three-run ball against the Blue Jays during his team debut.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Braves Designate Sean Newcomb For Assignment, Option Huascar Ynoa
The Braves have designated left-hander Sean Newcomb for assignment, per a club announcement. They’ve also optioned righty Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett and recalled right-hander Touki Toussaint and lefty Dylan Lee in place of Newcomb and Ynoa. Additionally, the Braves announced that Ronald Acuna Jr. is headed out on a minor league rehab assignment.
Newcomb’s DFA comes on the heels of a three-year downturn that have seen the starter-turned-setup-man’s effectiveness dwindle considerably. The No. 15 overall pick by the Angels back in 2014, Newcomb headlined the Braves’ return in the trade that sent Andrelton Simmons to Anaheim. After a solid rookie showing in 2017, he looked to have broken out in 2018 when he made 30 starts and pitched to a 3.90 ERA over the life of 164 innings. Newcomb’s 23% strikeout rate was solid, but his 11.6% walk rate marked a continuation of ongoing command troubles that had plagued him dating back to his minor league days.
Despite a decent start to the 2019 season, Newcomb was optioned to Gwinnett in mid-April and returned as a reliever in early May. The new role seemed to suit him just fine, as he pitched to a 2.89 ERA with improved strikeout and walk rates (25.5% and 8.9%, respectively) in 56 innings the rest of the way. Averaging just shy of 95 mph on his heater and putting the ball on the ground on more than half of the batted balls against him, Newcomb looked the part of a quality late-inning option.
That hasn’t proven to be the case, however. Dating back to 2020, Newcomb has a 6.71 ERA in 51 big league innings and has spent some time shuttling between Gwinnett and the big leagues. He’s walked more than 15% of his opponents since Opening Day 2020, plunked another five batters and thrown seven wild pitches. Newcomb is out of minor league options, and with him yielding four runs on seven hits and four walks through just five innings (26 batters faced) to begin the season, the Braves made the choice to cut bait.
Newcomb is earning $900K this season after avoiding arbitration this past offseason. He’s still owed about $842K of that sum for the remainder of the season, and any team that claims him or acquires him via trade would be on the hook for the remainder of that sum. If a new team is able to help Newcomb right the ship, however, he’d be controllable through the 2024 season via arbitration. Given that his salary is only $200K north of the new league minimum, it’s certainly possible that another club will look to help get the once-successful southpaw back on track. The Braves will have a week to trade Newcomb, attempt to pass him through waivers or release him. If he’s released, the new signing team would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster.
As for Ynoa, he’ll remain on the 40-man roster and hope to work toward another big league shot after an awful start to the season. The former Twins prospect, acquired in the deal that briefly sent Jaime Garcia to Minnesota, had a short breakout last year when he pitched to a 3.09 ERA over an eight-start stretch that spanned 43 2/3 frames. Ynoa, however, suffered a broken hand when he punched the bench following a poor start and spent two months on the injured list. When he returned, he posted a 5.05 ERA in 46 1/3 frames, and those struggles have not only continued but escalated in 2022. So far this year, he’s made two starts, both shorter than four innings, and yielded five earned runs in each.
The news on Acuna is a welcome sight for Braves fans, as it signifies that — barring any setbacks in his rehab from last year’s ACL tear — he’ll be back with the big league club within a month’s time. Minor league rehab windows are capped at 30 days, so Acuna will be back by mid-May, health-permitting.
Jacob deGrom Slated For Followup MRI Next Week
Mets ace Jacob deGrom is slated to undergo a followup MRI on his ailing right shoulder next Monday, the team told reporters Tuesday (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). If that round of imaging goes well, it’s possible he’ll be cleared to begin throwing shortly thereafter.
The Mets haven’t received an inning from deGrom so far in 2022, as he’s been shelved after being diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right scapula back on April 1. The original recommendation was for a four-week shutdown. A two-time Cy Young winner, deGrom pitched to a superhuman 1.08 ERA with a 45.1% strikeout rate and 3.4% walk rate in 92 frames last year before being shut down in early July with a forearm issue that eventually proved to be a season-ender.
There’s still no timetable on deGrom’s return and won’t be until that MRI next week is complete, although the Mets have not yet placed him on the 60-day injured list. That leaves open the possibility that he could return before the early-June point that such a move would necessitate.
Even without deGrom and right-hander Taijuan Walker, who’s currently out with a case of bursitis in his right shoulder, the Mets’ rotation hasn’t missed much of a beat so far in 2021. Righty Tylor Megill has gotten out to a magnificent start, hurling 11 shutout innings while brandishing an improved heater that has enjoyed a velocity spike of nearly two miles per hour. Former Cleveland star Carlos Carrasco, who struggled mightily in his first year with the Mets last season, has looked like his old self for his first two trips to the mound. Trade acquisition Chris Bassitt, meanwhile, has allowed just one run through a dozen frames. Max Scherzer has had a pair of sharp outings to begin his Mets career, and lefty David Peterson has yet to allow a run through 8 1/3 frames.
The 33-year-old deGrom is being paid $33.5MM in the penultimate guaranteed season of a five-year, $137.5MM contract. He can opt out of that deal at season’s end — a right he’s said he still plans to exercise even after missing the early portion of the season on the injured list. The right-hander’s current contract would pay him $30.5MM in 2023 and gives the Mets a $32.5MM option on the 2024 season.
Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox filled their right field vacancy by making a long-awaited Craig Kimbrel trade, otherwise focusing on signing Kimbrel’s replacements rather than compensating for the departure of Carlos Rodon.
Major League Signings
- Kendall Graveman, RP: three years, $24MM
- Joe Kelly, RP: two years, $17MM
- Leury Garcia, IF/OF: three years, $16.5MM
- Josh Harrison, 2B/3B: one year, $5.5MM
- Vince Velasquez, SP: one year, $3MM
- Total spend: $66MM
Options Exercised
- Craig Kimbrel, RP: one year, $16MM
Trades and Claims
- Acquired OF Adam Haseley from Phillies for RP McKinley Moore
- Acquired OF AJ Pollock from Dodgers for Craig Kimbrel
- Acquired C Reese McGuire from Blue Jays for C Zack Collins
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Carlos Rodon, Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, Cesar Hernandez, Zack Collins, Brian Goodwin, Billy Hamilton, Evan Marshall, Jimmy Cordero
After a disappointing ALDS loss to the Astros, the White Sox kicked off their offseason by exercising their hefty $16MM option on reliever Craig Kimbrel. The righty had struggled after a crosstown trade in which the Sox paid the high price of Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer. The White Sox seemed intent on trading Kimbrel all along, and at the time their choice on the option seemed related to having given up Madrigal for him. As I wrote in December, “[White Sox GM Rick] Hahn has gambled that whatever he gets back will be better than just paying the $1MM buyout on Kimbrel and spending the money in free agency.”
At the time it needed to be made, the Kimbrel decision involved some financial risk for a club that has never been willing to run a payroll near the first competitive balance tax threshold. Days later, in what seemed a related choice payroll-wise, the White Sox declined to issue a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to lefty Carlos Rodon.
Especially with the benefit of hindsight that the White Sox would make no major commitments to their rotation, the Rodon decision must be read as the club thinking that the southpaw accepting the qualifying offer would have been a bad thing. It’s hard to say whether Rodon would have accepted. He was one of the game’s best pitchers through mid-July last year, but lost velocity and was handled carefully after that due to shoulder issues. Rodon went on to sign a two-year, $44MM deal after the lockout with the Giants that allows him to opt out after the first year if he reaches 110 innings. Rodon’s market would have been different if he had a qualifying offer attached, due to draft pick forfeiture.
In granting righty Lance Lynn a two-year, $38MM extension last July – similar to the contract Rodon would eventually sign – it might be that the White Sox felt they could choose only one of their 2021 aces. That’s only true in that owner Jerry Reinsdorf decided not to set a payroll that would accommodate both. So, the White Sox received no compensation for Rodon’s departure, while Lynn had knee surgery earlier this month and isn’t expected to make his season debut before his 35th birthday on May 12th. The second half of the season will determine whether the White Sox made the right bet: Lynn will be a big factor in Chicago’s rotation, and we’ll learn whether Rodon holds up all year.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the White Sox showed “strong interest” in Justin Verlander before he reached an agreement to re-sign with the Astros on November 17th. That would’ve been a reasonable way to fill Rodon’s shoes, but competition for Verlander was fierce and the Astros were at the top of his list. Most other top free agent starting pitchers signed prior to the lockout as well, and the White Sox weren’t rumored to be interested in them.
Otherwise, the White Sox made a pair of free agent strikes before the December 2 lockout. They gave out a pair of decent-sized three-year deals, adding setup man Kendall Graveman and retaining super-utility man Leury Garcia. The Graveman signing laid groundwork for the eventual Kimbrel trade, ensuring the team would remain strong in the late innings behind top closer Liam Hendriks. Garcia garnered a larger commitment than expected, but would end up as part of the team’s second base solution.
Rick Hahn’s first post-lockout move was to finish off that second base combo with the signing of Josh Harrison. Through nine games of the season, manager Tony La Russa has split second base time evenly between Garcia and Harrison. Harrison is a righty batter with a modest platoon split, with a 113 wRC+ against southpaws from 2020-21. Garcia, a switch-hitter, is also better against lefties. From 2019-21, Garcia and Harrison sport identical 83 wRC+ marks against right-handed pitching. So for the 70% of the time a righty pitcher is on the hill, the White Sox figure to have a fairly easy out coming from the second base position in the lineup.
On the same day as the Harrison signing, the White Sox somewhat surprisingly moved to further bolster their bullpen with the signing of Joe Kelly. Not only was the team surprising given Chicago’s existing bullpen commitments, but Kelly had exited Game 5 of the NLCS with biceps tightness and still secured a strong commitment. His White Sox debut has been delayed by at least a couple of weeks due to the injury. When Kelly is healthy, he, Graveman, and Aaron Bummer can form a very strong bridge to Hendriks.
After the lockout, the White Sox added only back-end starting pitchers to cover for the loss of Rodon and ineffectiveness of Dallas Keuchel, as Lynn had not yet gotten injured. Vince Velasquez, 29, has longstanding control issues that pitching coach Ethan Katz will attempt to solve. Johnny Cueto, meanwhile, can be a source of veteran innings. The White Sox can still plan a hopeful playoff rotation of Lucas Giolito, Lynn, Dylan Cease, and Michael Kopech. While their depth to cover April injuries to Lynn and Giolito isn’t impressive, if everyone is healthy this will be a fearsome rotation.
The White Sox made efforts to trade for Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas, and Montas remains available. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Sox “nearly acquired” Manaea from the A’s before the Padres closed the deal. Nightengale suggests the A’s have sought Andrew Vaughn from the White Sox for Montas. If nothing else, these rumors suggest the White Sox know they’re a bit short on pitching depth, especially with Keuchel’s struggles last year and Kopech’s likely innings limit.
On April 1st, the White Sox finally found a match for Kimbrel, sending him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock. This was a strong move for the White Sox, vindicating their decision to exercise Kimbrel’s option. In the 34-year-old Pollock, the White Sox effectively fill their right field vacancy with a player who posted a 135 wRC+ over 632 plate appearances from 2020-21. Pollock’s injury history suggests he’s good for about 115 games per year, so the Sox will be covering his absences with Adam Engel and Vaughn. The White Sox can’t exactly time when Pollock will get hurt, but the goal will be to have him active for the playoffs. The Sox also completed a smaller swap with the Collins-McGuire deal, improving their defense at the backup catcher position.
With Yasmani Grandal behind the plate, Jose Abreu at first base, Tim Anderson at shortstop, Yoan Moncada at third, Eloy Jimenez in left, and Luis Robert in center, the White Sox came into the offseason with a strong core of hitters. Pollock only deepens that mix. Vaughn, the third overall draft pick in 2019, should bounce around between the outfield corners, first base, and DH depending on the team’s needs. Anderson is under team control through 2024, Moncada through ’25, Jimenez and Vaughn through ’26, and Robert through ’27.
In the aggregate, the White Sox didn’t necessarily do much to improve upon last year’s 93-win team. When Pollock is healthy, they’ll clearly be better in right field, and the team won’t have to play Vaughn at an outfield corner. Second base is mostly a wash. They covered the losses of Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera with Graveman and Kelly, but also lost Garrett Crochet to Tommy John surgery. The rotation is worse off for the loss of Rodon, but Kopech and/or a future trade might fill much of that void. But maybe this was enough – the White Sox remain the clear favorite in the AL Central, and Tony La Russa’s crew is a credible threat to win the World Series in 2022.