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Manfred Expresses Optimism For 2020 Season

By Jeff Todd | May 14, 2020 at 8:41pm CDT

In an appearance on CNN, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred expressed optimism regarding the prospects for a 2020 season. The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler is among those tweeting quotes from the interview; CNN’s Anderson Cooper has shared some video via Twitter.

Though he’s hopeful of baseball being played this summer, Manfred made clear the thinking involves spectator-free contests. Anything more would be unexpected at this point. The focus, clearly, is just on getting some reasonable product off of the ground.

Manfred also warned of the dire consequences to the economic health of the game if the campaign doesn’t work out. He said losses to the thirty teams could “approach” a remarkable $4B if 2020 is shelved entirely. Obviously, it’s not clear from a brief interview precisely what is and isn’t baked into that number.

Among many other hurdles, of course, is the matter of sorting things out with the players. Manfred expressed “great confidence” that the sides will ultimately see eye to eye, “both that it’s safe to come back to work and work out the economic issues that need to be resolved.”

MLB will not “force” any individual player to suit up, Manfred said. (How that decision would be free from disincentives is another question.) But he expects that won’t be a significant issue. “We hope that we will be able to convince the vast, vast majority of our players that it’s safe to return,” says Manfred.

Planning for the safety of players and others involved in putting on contests will obviously be critical. There’s certainly a strain of opinion that doesn’t see it as a truly achievable goal under the circumstances.

Manfred promoted the testing and tracing plan that was reported earlier today.  Critically, the league does not plan to suspend play if a player (or, presumably, other employee) tests positive. Instead, it would keep that player isolated and away from the playing field until he has received two negative tests — presuming he’s able to recover — while also testing all those that had been in close contact to the player.

That’s a far less restrictive approach than that maintained by the Korea Baseball Organization, which says it will shut down for three weeks if any player tests positive. Thankfully, Korea’s top league hasn’t had to do so just yet. And Taiwan’s CPBL has even progressed to the point where limited live fans are attending games. Of course, those leagues are operating against the backdrop of societies that have had much more success at gaining control over the spread of the coronavirus.

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Uncategorized Coronavirus

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How Does The Future Payroll Look For Cost-Conscious Rays?

By Jeff Todd | May 14, 2020 at 7:34pm CDT

2020 salary terms are set to be hammered out in the coming days. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Next up is the Rays:

Rays Total Future Cash Obligation: $101.17MM

*Does not include vesting option for Charlie Morton (value between $3MM and $15MM based upon number of days on injured list)

*Includes remaining obligations to Evan Longoria (traded to Giants)

(click to expand/view detail list)

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2021-Beyond Future Payroll Obligations MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays

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Cashman Optimistic That Judge Will Be Ready For Start Of Season

By Jeff Todd | May 14, 2020 at 5:33pm CDT

Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge appears to be making quite a lot of progress while awaiting word on whether and when the season will occur. GM Brian Cashman says the organization is “excited to believe that he’s going to rejoin us at full capacity,” as Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports.

The “very unique” rib injury suffered by Judge has been complicated to treat and largely defied clear timelines. It’s rather notable, then, to hear Cashman speak with such clarity on the matter.

Though specifics on Judge’s readiness and the 2020 season schedule aren’t yet known, it sounds as if Judge would be ready to go for a shortened Spring Training that could launch in June. With little time for all players to ramp up for a compressed season, it’ll be critical for the towering outfielder to get himself to 100% before baseball re-launches.

Cashman indicated that Judge isn’t fully out of the woods yet. Imaging “shows the healing” and has left the team hopeful of “expected healing moving forward,” says Cashman, so it sounds as if there’s a lot of progress but also some ground left to be covered.

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New York Yankees Aaron Judge

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Yankees Have Over Half A Billion Dollars On Books Past 2020

By Jeff Todd | May 14, 2020 at 4:33pm CDT

2020 salary terms are set to be hammered out in the coming days. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Next up is the Yankees:

Yankees Total Future Cash Obligation: $612MM

*Giancarlo Stanton (after 2020) and Gerrit Cole (after 2024) can opt out

*total reflects that Marlins to pay $30MM if Stanton does not opt out

*Zack Britton contract includes opt-out opportunity after 2020 if team does not exercise 2022 club option

*Jacoby Ellsbury (released) still owed buyout on 2021 club option, pending grievance

*total does not include J.A. Happ vesting option ($17MM) with 165 innings/27 starts (will likely be pro-rated for shortened season)

(click to expand/view detail list)

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2021-Beyond Future Payroll Obligations MLBTR Originals New York Yankees

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The Senzel Factor: 2020 DH Would Give Reds A Lot Of Options

By Jeff Todd | May 14, 2020 at 2:59pm CDT

With the DH likely headed to the National League, at least for 2020, we’re going to run through each of the NL teams to see how they might best handle this new need/opportunity and explore any interesting potential roster effects. We’ve already done the Dodgers and D-Backs … now on to the Reds:

This is in some respects a dream scenario for the Cincinnati organization, which has a deep group of outfielders and spent the winter adding defensively questionable hitters. Perhaps the potential for a DH helped inform the team’s rather bold decision to give hefty four-year deals to both Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas.

With the aid of the temporary rule change, the club can really make use of exciting youngster Nick Senzel. The versatile infielder/outfielder could get in the lineup on a regular basis while moving around the diamond, opening the door to additional opportunity for him and additional rest for some veterans. If he’s in the lineup, Castellanos or Moustakas could appear as the DH … or slide over to first base to give Joey Votto a day in the hitter-only slot.

It certainly seems reasonable to think that Castellanos will end up occupying DH duties more than anyone else. He’s not considered much of a defender and is presently slated to line up in right field. The Reds could not only plug Senzel into that slot but can draw upon their bounty of platoon-friendly corner outfielders to maximize offensive output. Phil Ervin and Aristides Aquino are the top righty bats, with lefties Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler, and Mark Payton also candidates for the mix. (Left-handed hitter Shogo Akiyama is expected to spend most of his time in center. Senzel, it’s worth noting, can also play there.)

The Reds came into the year looking to shoehorn offensive production wherever possible. Now, they’ll not only have more chances to do so, but have far more flexibility to avoid the potential run-prevention problems that might have accompanied the strategy.

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Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals

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Which 15 Players Should The Rays Protect In An Expansion Draft?

By Tim Dierkes | May 14, 2020 at 1:30pm CDT

In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR.  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

So far, we’ve done the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles.  The Rays are next.

In reality, if the Rays were faced with an expansion draft, they’d make a bunch of trades to minimize the damage of losing quality players given their impressive depth.  I decided to lock down only seven players:

Charlie Morton
Blake Snell
Tyler Glasnow
Austin Meadows
Brandon Lowe
Brendan McKay
Wander Franco

That leaves some very tough calls among these 29, of which you can only choose eight:

Willy Adames
Jose Alvarado
Nick Anderson
Randy Arozarena
Anthony Banda
Jalen Beeks
Michael Brosseau
Diego Castillo
Yonny Chirinos
Ji-Man Choi
Yandy Diaz
Oliver Drake
Peter Fairbanks
Brent Honeywell
Kevin Kiermaier
Andrew Kittredge
Nate Lowe
Manuel Margot
Jose Martinez
Brian O’Grady
Michael Perez
Colin Poche
Hunter Renfroe
Trevor Richards
Daniel Robertson
Chaz Roe
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo
Joey Wendle
Ryan Yarbrough

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! Click here to select exactly eight players you think the Rays should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft.  Click here to view the results.

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2020 Mock Expansion Draft MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays

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Universal DH Could Open Door For 2019 Minor League Home Run King

By Steve Adams | May 14, 2020 at 12:58pm CDT

The Diamondbacks weren’t a bad offensive club in 2019, but they were a middle-of-the-pack unit in the National League in terms of total runs (sixth overall with 813), home runs (ninth, 220) and wRC+ (seventh, 94). Like most contending clubs with a good bit of depth, those numbers should tick up if the league implements a universal DH in 2020, as seems increasingly likely.

For the Diamondbacks, the most established beneficiary on the roster is lefty swinging Jake Lamb. Shoulder injuries have torched the 29-year-old’s past two seasons, and the former everyday third baseman has since lost that spot to Eduardo Escobar as a result. With a DH added to the mix, Lamb could rotate between designated hitter and both infield corners, providing occasional breathers for Escobar and 2019 breakout performer Christian Walker — at least against right-handed pitching. Lamb has struggled mightily in his career against southpaws, though, so he’d likely need to be platooned.

Enter Kevin Cron.

The righty swinging younger brother of slugger C.J. Cron has never been considered among the D-backs’ top prospects, in part because of a lack of defensive value and the type of plodding speed you’d expect from a 6’5″, 250-pound first baseman. But Cron has consistently hammered minor league pitching, and never more so than in 2019, when he belted a minor-league-leading 39 home runs in just 84 games. (Yes — the Triple-A ball was also juiced.)

Cron logged a ridiculous .331/.449/.777 slash with a career-high 16.2 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate with Triple-A Reno. He only received 78 plate appearances in the Majors, due in no small part to the breakout of Walker, who is also a stellar defender at first base. That said, Cron tacked on another six round-trippers in the big leagues, bringing his season total to 45 in just 460 plate appearances.

Lamb might get the first look at DH — he’s playing on a $5.525MM contract after all — but Cron should be in line for at least a platoon gig early in the season. Further injuries to Lamb or some struggles at the plate could open the door for a wider look. It’s not a given that Cron’s minor league dominance would carry over to the big leagues — he’s not even ranked in their top 30 prospects at Baseball America and sits just 26th at MLB.com — but when you homer in nearly 10 percent of your 400-plus plate appearances, it’s probably time for a legitimate chance.

Beyond Cron and Lamb, the D-backs have prospect Seth Beer working his way toward the Majors. He came over from Houston in the Zack Greinke swap and is a bat-first corner option himself, although he’s yet to appear in Triple-A. Versatile Swiss army knives like Josh Rojas and Andy Young can be plugged in all over the diamond, giving the Snakes increased opportunities to spell Ketel Marte, David Peralta, Kole Calhoun, etc. with a day at designated hitter as well.

The D-backs have the depth to take a mix-and-match approach to the DH spot, plus one veteran option looking for a bounceback … but the most interesting thread to follow will be whether 2019’s minor league home run king can capitalize on an opportunity he didn’t expect to have when Spring Training originally commenced.

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Arizona Diamondbacks MLBTR Originals Jake Lamb Kevin Cron

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Latest On MLB’s Proposal For Return To Play

By Steve Adams | May 14, 2020 at 11:14am CDT

Since the league shutdown in mid-March, the looming question hanging over Major League Baseball has been one of how a positive test or tests among players and coaches would be handled. Even earlier this week, as the league presented the the Players Association with a proposal to return to play, that aspect remained a critical unknown. This morning, Jared Diamond and Louise Radnofsky of the Wall Street Journal shed some light on those matters, reporting that MLB’s proposal would see players tested multiple times per week.

Major League Baseball, per the WSJ report, is confident in its ability to gain access to tens of thousands of test kits without depleting the supply available to essential frontline workers. The specifics of that arrangement aren’t clear, and detractors will surely argue that multiple tests per week for athletes, coaches, training staff and umpires could be better allocated. Granted, testing capacity is on the rise and could look markedly different by the time play resumes. Diamond and Radnofsky also write that the league will focus on acquiring primarily 24-hour tests as opposed to more immediate, rapid-result tests.

That, of course, comes with its own potential for pitfalls; an asymptomatic player, coach or umpire who tests positive would still have been in contact with others for a full day before learning of the diagnosis under that scenario. Paired with going a day or multiple days between tests, it’s not hard to envision infections spreading quickly.

Notably, Diamond and Radnofsky underline that a positive test would not result in a stoppage of play under the current proposal. Any person or persons who test positive would be immediately quarantined, while those who’d been in contact will be more closely monitored. Specifics on the protocol for contact tracing and increased or more aggressive testing in the wake of a positive test remain unknown.

With all that in mind, it’s not particularly surprising to see SNY’s Andy Martino cite an unnamed agent who states that there’s “no question” some players will opt not to play in 2020. He adds that no specific proposals on how exemptions for at-risk players would be handled — a debate that carries its own set of intricacies regarding service time and salary.

Some players with heightened risk due to underlying medical conditions have recently voiced a willingness to play, but others have been more outspoken about their concern. There are also many players with underlying conditions that aren’t public knowledge, to say nothing of family members and loved ones who could be at greater risk. Concerns figure to be prominent among coaching staffs as well, where numerous personnel are in their 60s and 70s — some with more troubling medical concerns.

Of course, there’s no situation where play resumes and the risk is wholly eliminated. The goal is to dramatically reduce the risk, and regular testing coupled with temperature checks and other regulations will work toward that end. In the Korea Baseball Organization, there’s been a ban on spitting, high fives and handshakes. Similar restrictions will likely be put in place in MLB, and although strictly enforcing them will be difficult, the players know it’s in their best interest to work to curtail those habits. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that players and personnel will be discouraged from using rideshare services such as Uber and Lyft, and they’ll also be advised against signing autographs and taking pictures with fans at their hotels.

MLB is also wary of the potential for another notable wave of virus cases in the fall and winter, Nightengale adds, which is why the league ultimately scrapped a plan that would’ve seen postseason play push into December. The aim now is for an 82-game season with an expanded, 14-team postseason format that can be concluded in early November.

The health component is the most important piece of negotiations between the league and the players union — although it’s certainly not the only one. The two sides still need to reach some kind of agreement on salary, and players appear loath to accept a revenue sharing system that would represent even greater reductions than the prorated salaries to which they already agreed back in March.

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Newsstand Coronavirus

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Which 15 Players Should The Orioles Protect In An Expansion Draft?

By Tim Dierkes | May 14, 2020 at 9:40am CDT

In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR.  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

So far, we’ve done the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays.  The Orioles are next.

Free agent Jose Iglesias has a club option for 2021, but we won’t force the Orioles to use a protected spot on him.  We will make them include Chris Davis and Alex Cobb, players with full or partial no-trade rights.  After those two, I’ll lock in seven more players:

Trey Mancini
John Means
Austin Hays
Hunter Harvey
Hanser Alberto
Renato Nunez
Anthony Santander

That leaves six spots for these 23 players:

Shawn Armstrong
Richard Bleier
Miguel Castro
Paul Fry
Mychal Givens
David Hess
Travis Lakins
Richie Martin
Cedric Mullins
Evan Phillips
Rio Ruiz
Tanner Scott
Pedro Severino
Chance Sisco
Dwight Smith Jr.
DJ Stewart
Kohl Stewart
Cole Sulser
Dillon Tate
Andrew Velazquez
Hector Velazquez
Asher Wojciechowski
Austin Wynns

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below, please select exactly six players you think the Orioles should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

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2020 Mock Expansion Draft Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals

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Universal DH Would Highlight Dodgers’ Ridiculous Depth

By Steve Adams | May 14, 2020 at 9:10am CDT

The designated hitter is likely coming to the National League in 2020. And while many lifelong NL fans will have strong feelings against the change, Dodgers fans may be most amenable to the switch, knowing how strongly their club is positioned to take advantage of the rule change.

Among the 18 non-pitchers who took at least 50 plate appearances with the Dodgers last season, a whopping 13 of them were better than the league average in terms of wRC+. That doesn’t even include projected second baseman Gavin Lux, who is widely regarded as the game’s No. 2 overall prospect due largely to his upside at the plate (.392/.478/.719 in 232 Triple-A plate appearances last year). It seems safe to expect him to join that group of above-average bats.

It’s true that the Dodgers lost three of those above-average hitters — David Freese retired, Alex Verdugo and Kyle Garlick were traded — but L.A. also added one of the best hitters on the planet in Mookie Betts. He’ll pair with Cody Bellinger and some type of platoon between Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock and Chris Taylor in the outfield.

That’s only part of the Dodgers’ outfield depth, of course, and the infield is similarly stacked with talent and much better-than-average bench pieces. The arrival of Lux at second base likely pushes Max Muncy to first base, leaving Corey Seager and Justin Turner to continue suiting up on the left side of the diamond. Will Smith has the makings of a very good hitter behind the plate, as well.

That’s an extremely deep starting lineup as is, but the Dodgers could field nearly an entire second starting infield with their bench options. Taylor, already mentioned, hasn’t quite replicated his huge debut season in L.A., but his .257/.332/.451 slash over the past two seasons is strong. First baseman/left fielder Matt Beaty was a roughly league-average hitter in 268 PAs last year, and fellow corner option Edwin Rios would be in the mix to start at third base for some clubs after posting a 112 wRC+ in Triple-A last year and hitting .277/.393/.617 in 56 big league plate appearances. Enrique Hernandez had a down season but is only a year removed from hitting .256/.336/.470.

Beaty and Rios give manager Dave Roberts a pair of lefty-swinging bats to work into the mix at first base (either player), third base (Rios) and in left field (Beaty). Hernandez and Taylor can both play shortstop, second base or any outfield slot. No matter who needs a breather at DH on a given day or what hand the opposing starter throws with, Roberts has versatile option with quality offensive track records. The Dodgers also got a nice showing from outfielder DJ Peters in Triple-A last year and reacquired first baseman/outfielder Luke Raley from the Twins this winter on the heels of a 122 wRC+ in Triple-A. Don’t worry — platoon options abound there as well; Peters hits right-handed to Raley’s left-handed bat.

As it already stood, the Dodgers could’ve rolled out a lineup featuring Betts, Bellinger, Pederson/Pollock, Turner, Seager, Lux, Muncy and Smith on any given day. Now, it seems they’ll be able to rotate any of those regulars through the DH position while replacing him in the field with a versatile piece in a favorable platoon matchup. And on days when that projected lineup is out there, virtually any bench bat at Roberts’ disposal should be equipped to deliver well above-average offense — particularly given the ability to tweak based on matchups.

The Dodgers led the NL with a 111 wRC+ last year, and with a deep stable of balanced bats who have versatile gloves, they should excel in 2020 without even needing to think about another addition for the new DH spot.

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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals

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