Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Sorry for the lack of advance notice. Schedule has been a bit wonky this week. We’ll go from noon CT until around 1:00 CT or so, however. I’ll give the queue a few minutes to start loading up here while I run and grab a snack, then we’ll get underway.
- And we’re off
Harry the K
- What kind of contract is Bader looking at? 2/30? He’s been amazing for the Phillies, offensively and defensively.
Steve Adams
- I’d probably come in a touch lighter on the AAV but yeah, that general range doesn’t seem outlandish
Reds GM
- You guys should publish an article about who could qualify for arbitration for the first time this fall! Also when will the offseason outlook posts begin?
Steve Adams
- Our arbitration projections are in the works as we speak and will check that box for you. Offseason Outlooks probably will get underway late this month and run through the end of October (maybe into early November). We’ll be writing them while also prepping for our Top 50 Free Agent list/predictions and our top offseason trade candidate list, so a lot of balls in the air at once
David
- I don’t think the Ricketts will pay for Tucker after this year.
Steve Adams
- This has pretty steadily been my stance all season. The Cubs would need to exceed their franchise record contract by $200MM+ to re-sign Tucker. I just don’t see it.
Chaim Bloom
- Is my payroll going to be below $100 million for 2026?
Steve Adams
- The Cardinals only have $75MM on the books for 2026, and that’s including Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray, both of whom will be trade candidates (although STL would have to eat a fair bit of money in either case — especially Arenado). Then you have arb raises for guys like JoJo Romero, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, etc.Some of those guys could be traded, but the Cards will probably bring in some short-term free agent vets. I’d say over $100MM but not by a large margin.
Nick Kurtz
- Do you believe service time manipulation has gotten better or worse under this CBA?
Steve Adams
- It’s just changed. Bubba Chandler probably would’ve been up months sooner, for instance, whereas guys like Drake Baldwin, Cam Smith, Jacob Wilson etc. just landed in the majors from the jump. Teams are always going to game the agreed-upon rules to some extent in the name of good business.
SFGigantes
- Thoughts on Verlander getting another 1/15 from SFG for 2026?
Steve Adams
- He’s been solid. It the two parties want to run it back, I think that deal would make sense
Still an A
- When do you see the A’s as legit playoff contenders?
Steve Adams
- I don’t think it’s out of the question that they could be in the Wild Card mix next year. I’d take 2027 as the safer bet, but I like a lot of their young hitters. If they can get a couple surprise rotation performances, be it via offseason additions or in-house strides from a Gage Jump, Braden Nett etc. — it’s not outrageous to me to think they could be a ’26 sleeper.
Yordan Ankle
- Do you have an update on my ankle
Steve Adams
- If I did, it’d be on the site!
Ellis
- What do the White Sox do with Robert Jr. this off-season? Almost seems like it’s come full circle to keep him around with his diminished trade value in case this team takes big strides next year
Steve Adams
- They’ll pick up his option and gauge trade interest again. I think they should’ve eaten all his remaining contract and moved him at the deadline, but they’re obviously comfortable gambling on the woeful health track record.
Mike Ellias
- What does my promotion mean for the O’s off-season?
Steve Adams
- Not much outside the fact that they’ll hire a GM, adding another high-profile voice to work under Elias, who’ll remain final say over all baseball ops matters
Joe Nuxhall
- Reds need a thumper. What does Hunter Greene bring back ? I know people would say I’m crazy to trade Hunter but I think he brings back what we need.
Steve Adams
- He’d bring back more than one premium bat, but that’s true of plenty within Cincinnati’s system. I’m not trading Greene or Chase Burns. You could get a quality bat for either Nick Lodolo or especially Andrew Abbott as well. I do think dealing from their pitching stash makes some sense, as I alluded to last week for subscribers:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/09/reds-trade-rumors-offseason-nic…
Tal’s Hill
- Do stros move Christian Walker in the offseason to open up a hole for Parades
Steve Adams
- Darragh and I talked about this at length on the podcast this morning. (That episode will drop tomorrow)They’d have to eat some of the contract to facilitate a deal, but sure, it’s possible. They could also look to move Paredes, though I think his swing is more or less tailor-made for Daikin Park.
Less popular idea — let me duck/shield my self from Astros fans quick — would be to trade Jeremy Pena to help replenish what’s a pretty barren rotation. Two more years of team control, but he’s a Boras client who’s not likely to sign the type of extensions the Astros offer. Could go Correa at SS, Paredes at 3B, Walker 1B and Altuve/Brice Matthews at 2B.
Not saying they should/will do it — just that it’s something I can envision other teams inquiring about, and the Astros ought to at least hear them out to see what kind of arm is out there.
chaim boom
- Are we heading towards a Nolan Arenado release this off season? Doesn’t seem like there is much trade value left.
Steve Adams
- I’d be surprised if they straight up release him. The trade value’s in the tank, but if they pay him down to like $4-5MM per year, they could at least salvage some cash.
Nico Hoerner
- Traded or extended by the Cubbies?
Steve Adams
- If he’s open to it, extend him again. I don’t think they’ll trade him this winter, though with so few shortstop options out there, some team might try to get a bit creative and pry him away with a position change in mind.
walter alston
- with the lack of good quality closers who do the dodgers go after for 2026
Steve Adams
- They don’t generally chase the high-end closers in free agency anyhow. The only times in the past decade they’ve done so (as you can see in our handy Contract Tracker) were to re-sign Kenley Jansen (5 years, $80MM) and to sign Tanner Scott this past winter (4/72 with deferrals).Jansen was more of an ownership decision. Scott was breaking from the norm and it hasn’t really worked out.
I imagine the Dodgers will have interest in bounceback deals with Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley and Luke Weaver, and they’ll probably be open to paying up for some buzz relievers who’ve elevated their standing considerably this season (someone like Brad Keller)
But in general, I wouldn’t expect them to be on someone like Edwin Diaz or Robert Suarez (the top relievers this winter)
Brian Cashman
- How much will it cost me to resign Cody Bellinger after he opts out?
Steve Adams
- I apparently remain the eternal Bellinger optimist, but something like $120-140MM over five years (maybe six years if it trends closer to the larger end of that range)
John Means
- Havent heard anything on him…is he with the Guards in 2026?
Steve Adams
- He’s pitching on a rehab assignment and should be activated in the final couple weeks. They’ll probably get two starts to see how he looks. Zack Meisel with The Athletic opined recently that Means’ option would be picked up if he’s healthy. I’m a little more bearish on the idea if he looks so-so in his 2-3 MLB starts, but Meisel is super plugged in on the team.I touched on Means a bit in this post
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/09/9-contract-options-to-keep-an-e…
Woodruff
- over/under 99.5mm?
Steve Adams
- Under, but I think he can get a pretty weighty three-year contract
Phanatic
- will the Phillies lose Ranger for… nothing? Who replaces Realmuto if he signs somewhere else?
Steve Adams
- Won’t be for nothing, since he’ll reject a qualifying offer, but the Phils are a tax payor so that reduces the compensation to a pick after the fourth round. Not great.There aren’t a lot of great options at catcher other than re-signing JTR. Could roll the dice on Victor Caratini or a second straight buy-low look for Danny Jansen.
If Realmuto goes elsewhere, the trade market probably makes more sense. Ryan Jeffers, Jake Rogers, Tyler Stephenson are among the guys I can see available this winter.
@tayyyburrr
- Which current Padre gets the better contract- King or Cease?
Collins
- Am I ROY for NL? And will I and MIL qualify for the CBA benefits of such if I am?
Steve Adams
- He has a good chance at it, but he won’t get them a comp pick if he wins the award since he wasn’t a top prospect
Umbruflla
- Did the Orioles find a couple gems in Jacksons that are not Holliday? Jeremiah Jackson and Alex Jackson seem to be keepers, or do the numbers under the hood tell a different tale?
Steve Adams
- Alex Jackson is 30 in December and has K’ed in 40% of his MLB plate appearances in his career, including one-third of them this offseason. It’s been a nice 90 plate appearances, but this isn’t sustainable.Jeremiah, perhaps more so, but he doesn’t walk and is really only thriving because he’s hitting close to .360 on balls in play. I can still see him as a viable utility player, but I’m not really buying these ~150 plate appearances
Framber Valdez
- Are teams gonna try and low ball me because of me crossing up/nailing my catcher?
Steve Adams
- If they do, they just won’t get him.
- Valdez is going to be paid handsomely, even with the late slide. I think the cross-up drama is overstated.
Bo Naylor
- Do I stick with the Guards or am I moved with 1.5 years of a look in the show
Steve Adams
- Could stick around as a glove-first backup, but the Guardians need to try to find more offense at multiple spots in 2025, with catcher near the top of the list.
Brewerfan
- RE:Collins not being a top prospect. Isn’t that ridiculously arbitrary that you have to be a top-prospect when those ratings are incredibly subjective? I get the idea that they are the ones suffering most from service time manipulation, but the idea that teams should only benefit for not manipulating top prospect service time is silly.
Steve Adams
- I agree, sure, but the rules are the rules.
Cade Horton
- Legit chance to win Rookie of the year?
Steve Adams
- Yup
Jake
- What is your opinion on the Jose Barrios so far? Have Martin and Woods-Richardson impressed or disappointed?
Steve Adams
- There’s no question they’ve disappointed relative to the expectations when the Twins traded Berrios to Toronto. But both are still controllable for several years, and SWR is having a particularly nice finish. In retrospect, they should’ve done better, but Martin was barely a year removed from being the No. 5 overall pick and Woods Richardson was a nearly MLB-ready pitching prospect who’d drawn some top-100 love. The package was fine at the time — good, even — but the results haven’t been there. In general, the Twins’ ability to finish off the development on well regarded position prospects has been lackluster.
Allen
- Raleigh is the AL MVP right?
Steve Adams
- If the season were to end today, he’d get my nonexistent vote. But it’s razor-thin between the two, and if Cal goes into the tank while Judge goes on a vintage Judge tear between now and season’s end, you could change my mind.
ROX
- Moniak has had a nice little season.
Steve Adams
- He’s hit decently, yeah, but I don’t understand how the defensive grades have tanked this hard. Still think the Rockies should’ve traded him at the deadline, but maybe the offers were just nothingburgers. I’d absolutely be listening on him this winter.
White Sox hopeful
- What do you make of the early success of the White Sox rookie class this season? Montgomery, Teel, Quero and Miedroth seem to be on the right path.
Steve Adams
- Montgomery either needs to find a way to improve his contact when he chases off the plate or just cut down on his chases in general. He’s making contact only one-third of the time he swings at a ball off the plate, per Statcast, which is awful. But the contact within the zone is passable (albeit a bit below-average), and the power is encouraging.Teel looks great. Quero … I don’t think he’s a catcher, and the bat hasn’t been good enough to justify playing at another position. But he’s still young, so we’ll see.
Meidroth seems fine, but there’s not a lot of ceiling with the lack of power.
Broadly speaking, it’s not a bad group. And I remain a weird Miguel Vargas truther who still thinks Vargas will be an above-average hitter.
Yankees
- It is clear that the Yankees no longer know what they are doing. The handling of Volpe not only shows they don’t care about the development of their players but also that they can no longer see putting him on the IL for 10 days back in May would have been better for him and the team.
Steve Adams
- I think they’ve done plenty of things right this year, but I agree that the handling of Volpe is at or near the top of a notable list of head-scratchers. Beyond the on-field ramifications, why are you letting this kid get absolutely eviscerated by fans — both at the stadium and especially on social media — by keeping a notable injury like a torn labrum so hush-hush?It’s sort of like what the Astros did last summer, letting fans grow beyond frustrated with Kyle Tucker for missing so much time with a contusion/bone bruise … only to finally announce “Oh yeah, he’s had a fracture in his shin for like three months”
On the one hand, sure you can say these guys are professionals and they should be able to take the criticism. But on the other, it’s so unnecessary, and that seems particularly true with a young kid like Volpe. It’s just … weird. Be transparent.
Guest
- Arenado and Gray have each been adamant about not waiving their no-trade privileges
Steve Adams
- Arenado suggested just yesterday that he knows he’ll be a trade candidate this winter as the Cardinals move even more toward the young side of things.Gray didn’t waive his NTC last offseason, but he’s down to one year now and the Cardinals will revisit the idea. Contreras still seems to be holding firm on staying in STL though, at least based on reporting coming from the Cards’ beat.
sox
- Why Raleigh for MVP? Judge has an OPS 200 points higher. It would be virtually unprecedented for someone to win an MVP with numbers that low relative to the runner-up.
Steve Adams
- Because defense matters and because Raleigh has 30-40 more plate appearances, which isn’t a huge margin but when we’re talking about a narrow race, it can be a separator.
MLBTR Fan
- Is 5/125 for Valdez pretty close you think?
Steve Adams
- Light for me.
Bryce Eldridge
- Bryce Eldridge hit one yesterday that would have been a HR in 23/30 ballparks. Unfortunately it was a flyout in AZ. With that said, who do you think ends up with the 3rd NL WC spot out of NYM, AZ, CIN, and SF? If you had to exclude the Mets, who do you think has the best chance to catch and surpass them out of those other teams?
Steve Adams
- I’d still pick the Mets, but this is another topic we discussed a good bit on the podcast episode that’ll run tomorrow morning. I chose the Reds as my favorite to upset the field, if the Mets’ insane swoon persists.
Hot Corner
- With the money ultimately thrown at Schwarber, what is the future for 3B for the Phillies? Bohm is likely on his way out
Steve Adams
- I have long maintained that Bohm is better suited for a bench role. I agree he seems likely to be non-tendered or traded.Phillies will have steep competition for Schwarber, so I wouldn’t necessarily assume he’s back. I doubt they’d sign both, but if Schwarber leaves, I expect Bregman would be firmly in play.
Other possibilities: Eugenio Suarez, Jorge Polanco, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto or the trade market (Josh Jung, Isaac Paredes, Royce Lewis — to name a few)
sox
- Does Raleigh’s defense make up a difference of 200 points in OPS? Judge is a pretty good defender too, although sure, not as valuable defensively as an elite catcher. fWAR and bWAR both have Judge leading Raleigh by a decent margin. Raleigh’s had a great season, and I’m no Yankee fan (quite the opposite), but seems like highway robbery for Judge not to win another one.
Steve Adams
- FanGraphs has Judge up by 0.7 WAR. I don’t consider that a big margin. B-Ref has a 2-WAR gap, but that’s because of a weird drop in Raleigh’s Defensive Runs Saved grade, despite Statcast still grading him as a premium defender. I prefer Statcast for catcher defensive grades.Plus, while Judge is a good defender, he’s spent significant time playing at DH while he navigates this arm injury.
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with preferring Judge, but I’m taking the guy who’s played more often and put up prodigious power output while playing the most physically demanding position on the field for over 1000 innings.
Billy
- I’m smarter than you.
Steve Adams
- Low bar to clear
Ebenezer_Batflip
- Speaking of Breggy, what do you think he’s going to get? I figure he’s expecting 5 years minimum, and at least beating the 28.3m AAV over 6/170 Detroit offered him last year. You think he can get 6/200 after this year, even in spite of his hammy injury?
Steve Adams
- Yeah I have him in the $175-200MM range
MLBTR Fan
- Have MLB execs ever reached out to you guys regarding your opinions or anything on the site etc?
Steve Adams
- I don’t think they care too much about our opinions, but they certainly read the site and would let us know if we botched something particularly egregious regarding their organization. Thankfully that doesn’t happen much. They’re generally more complimentary, though I know there are a handful of teams that don’t especially care for MLBTR haha. Or rather, there have been some teams in the past who did not under since-dismissed bb ops leaders. I’ll leave it at that and let you speculate wildly the rest of the way, haha.
Rangers fan
- Would you keep burger around? He’s cheap but he has no value.
Steve Adams
- Burger is the type of low-OBP, power-over-hit skill set that doesn’t really do a ton for me. That’s not to say he doesn’t have any value when he’s at his best, but the floor on that skill set is pretty low. I didn’t love the Rangers’ trade for him (or the Marlins’ prior trade for him — but hard to say that one didn’t work out well)
woodruff
- does he stay or leave milwaukee?
Steve Adams
- He’ll decline the mutual option and get a larger deal than the Brewers will offer elsewhere.
Little Johnny
- Does Trout actually get to 400 homers this year? He went 130 at bats without a homer so it is hardly a foregone conclusion..
Steve Adams
- Probably? He had a long slump, sure, but he has 21 bombs on the season and the power is obviously still present. It’s not some foregone conclusion or anything, but if you made me guess whether Trout hits a HR in the next 12-13 games or gets skunked, I’d take the homer.
4 Finger Charlie
- Which do we see first? An 80 home run season, 300 hit season, or a .400 batting avg season by a player?
Steve Adams
- None of the above? But 80 homers feels more doable than 300 hits or a .400 average. Today’s pitching and defense is too good to get 300 hits or a .400 average ever again. But I’d say 80 homers is only slightly more plausible (again, because pitching is just so good now)
Brewerfan
- % chance Peralta is dealt in the offseason? how would you see the package comparing to the Burnes trade?
Steve Adams
- Certainly feels possible now that he’s down to one year. I think the package would be comparable to that of Burnes, despite the latter having more name value. Peralta will be earning around half what Burnes had coming in arbitration, and his rate stats/velo aren’t really trending down the way Burnes had been.
Alex Anthopoulus
- Which problem do the Braves need to address more urgently? At #3 starter or a capable 4th outfielder that would allow a rotating DH?
Steve Adams
- Pitching
free agency will be boring
- This free agency is boring bc Bregman, Schwarber, and Bichette are likely to re-sign with their current teams and Tucker is likely going to LA
Steve Adams
- I don’t agree on Bregman or Tucker.
MoonbeamMcSwine
- Guardians middle infield question: They have Arias with limited range, a big gun & inconsistent bat playing SS, Rocchio doing all things well.. and Travis Bazzana in AAA… Are you inclined to make this a three headed monster w/ Baz as the primary 2B? or does he get moved to an OF spot? He has the wheels for it…
Steve Adams
- Bazzana at 2B. I don’t think either Arias or Rocchio is the long-term answer at shortstop.
- I don’t think either is a big league caliber hitter, for that matter.
Danny Jansen
- Let it be known, I will rise from obscurity and become a hero this postseason. You heard it here first!
Steve Adams
- Noted, Danny
- I’ll be rooting for you
M’s Fan
- Who wins the AL West?
Steve Adams
- Mariners for me
The savage
- What do the jays do now? Demote a starter to the bullpen?
Steve Adams
- Gausman/Bieber in the front two SP spots in the postseason, then see how Yesavage and the rest look down the stretch. I think it comes down to him versus Scherzer for the final rotation spot in the playoffs, and if Trey doesn’t get the nod, he’ll be waiting as either a piggyback/long-relief option or a potential late-inning monster. Good problem to have.
Logan Gilbert
- What would an extension for me this offseason look like (two more years of club control for the M’s): 5/120 with options on both sides get two-way conversations going?
Steve Adams
- I think he’s too good to take that. He’s already earning $7.365MM. You can conservatively say he’ll make something like $27-30MM total over his final two arb years, so you’re pitching around three years and $90MM for his first three free-agent seasons.Garrett Crochet is in the same service bracket and just got 6/170 from the Red Sox with about 15% the career innings of Gilbert.
I think Boston went a little wild with that deal, but regardless, 5/120 doesn’t feel strong enough to get Gilbert to sign.
- I’ve got to call it for the week. Tim’s mailbag will run tomorrow, and Anthony will have a subscriber chat on Friday. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and with me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) our Agency Database, our GM Tracker, our Offseason Outlook series and more. Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!