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Injury Notes: Mahle, Meadows, Walker, Johnson

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | August 18, 2022 at 7:02pm CDT

The Twins are surely breathing a sigh of relief, announcing to reporters Thursday that an MRI revealed right-hander Tyler Mahle’s shoulder to be structurally sound. Mahle, acquired from the Reds in exchange for three prospects earlier this month, exited yesterday’s start after just 2 1/3 innings due to shoulder fatigue. That was of particular concern, given that he also missed time in July with what was termed by the Reds as a “minor'” shoulder strain. For the time being, there are no plans to place Mahle on the 15-day injured list, though it’s not yet clear whether his next start will be pushed back at all.

Mahle’s Wednesday start saw his fastball clocking in around four miles per hour shy of his typical 93.4 mph average, so there’s still some obvious concern, but the absence of a tear or any structural issues is about the best news for which the Twins could have hoped. In 14 1/3 innings as a Twin, Mahle has pitched to a 2.51 ERA with a 23.1% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate. Mahle, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy are in line to make the majority of the Twins’ starts down the stretch, though they’re expecting right-hander Bailey Ober back in September and just this week promoted prospect Simeon Woods Richardson from Double-A to Triple-A.

Some more injury scenarios of note from around the league…

  • As if things couldn’t get any worse for the Tigers, manager A.J. Hinch announced this week that outfielder Austin Meadows has once again been pulled from a rehab assignment (link via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). Meadows first hit the injured list back in mid-May due to vertigo-like symptoms and returned a bit less than a month later. That return lasted only eight games, however, before he was placed on the Covid-related injured list. Just as Meadows was getting ready to head out on a rehab assignment, he was transferred to the 10-day injured list owing to the bizarre diagnosis of an Achilles strain in both legs. This now marks the second time that Meadows has had a rehab assignment for this injury halted. Hinch’s only update was that Meadows was headed to Detroit for reevaluation and that the Tigers still have hope he can return in 2022. It’s been a nightmare of a season for Meadows, who has been limited to just 147 plate appearances and seen his power disappear: .250/.347/.328.
  • Mets righty Taijuan Walker left his most recent start due to back spasms, with an MRI revealing a slight disc bulge in his lower back, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. However, it’s possible he could make his next scheduled start on Sunday. Walker tells DiComo that he is “shocked” to be feeling so good so soon after experiencing “the worst pain I ever felt.” Although he’s feeling better, he still won’t take the mound on Sunday unless he’s feeling 100 percent, per DiComo. If he is indeed recovered, it would be a tremendous gift for the Mets, given the current pressures on their rotation. With Carlos Carrasco recently landing on the IL and the Mets having a doubleheader on Saturday, having to make it through Sunday without Walker would certainly be a challenge. How his back responds over the next few days will determine if the club can avoid that tricky scenario.
  • Padres reliever Pierce Johnson is heading out on a rehab assignment, tweets Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Johnson had an excellent season for San Diego a year ago, throwing 58 2/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA and 31.6% strikeout rate. The Friars held a $3MM club option over Johnson’s services for this year, which they exercised based on that strong showing last season. Unfortunately, Johnson landed on the IL in April due to elbow tendinitis. He’s yet to return, meaning he’s only been able to get into six games this year. After a layoff of about four months, it seems he’s healthy enough to get back into game shape. Once he’s ready to return to the big league club, he should give the bullpen a boost for the final few weeks of the season.
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Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins New York Mets Notes San Diego Padres Austin Meadows Pierce Johnson Taijuan Walker Tyler Mahle

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James Paxton Diagnosed With Lat Strain

By Darragh McDonald | August 18, 2022 at 4:53pm CDT

Red Sox lefty James Paxton began a rehab assignment today but left after facing just two batters. This was initially reported to be lat tightness by Chris Cotillo of MassLive, with manager Alex Cora later telling Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe that Paxton has a lat strain.

Cotillo adds that Paxton is seeing a doctor tomorrow to determine the severity of the issue, but there’s no question this is a significant setback for the hurler. Today was his first attempt to pitch in an organized game since undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He was still going to need some time to ramp up for a starter’s workload and will now have to push that further down the road. Even a mild lat strain usually requires a recovery period of 2-3 weeks, which means the southpaw will likely be sidelined until some time in September even in a best case scenario.

It’s another disappointing development for Paxton, one of many in recent years, following on the heels of an excellent four-year stretch of effectiveness. From 2016 to 2019, he threw at least 121 innings in each season, keeping his ERA under 4.00 in each campaign as well. He had a 22.9% strikeout rate in 2016 but got it up near 30% for the latter three years of that stretch.

Unfortunately, injuries limited him to just five starts in 2020 and then just a single outing in 2021 before landing on the injured list. Despite two essentially lost seasons, the Red Sox took a chance on him this past winter, hoping he could recover his previous form once he returned to health. The contract reflected his uncertain status, with Paxton receiving a $6MM salary here in 2022 while rehabbing. At the end of the year, Boston will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $13MM club options for 2023 and 2024, effectively a two-year, $26MM deal. Should they decline, Paxton will then get to decide on a $4MM player option for next season.

If Paxton had come through this rehab looking like the solid mid-rotation arm he had been previously, there would have been good reason for the Red Sox to consider triggering their option, especially with Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha slated to reach free agency this fall. There’s also the uncertainty surrounding Chris Sale, who has thrown less than 50 total innings over the past three seasons due to his own injury concerns. However, the longer Paxton remains out of action, the more the needle will move towards the club declining their end of the deal. As for Paxton’s side of things, that will also surely depend upon the severity of his injury and whether he thinks he can top $4MM in the open market this offseason.

In the short-term, the Red Sox surely would have loved for Paxton to come back and help them with the stretch drive here in 2022, but that’s looking increasingly unlikely with today’s setback. Boston is currently four games behind Toronto and Tampa Bay for the final Wild Card spot in the American League, with three other clubs in between them.

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Boston Red Sox James Paxton

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White Sox Outright Yoan Aybar

By Darragh McDonald | August 18, 2022 at 3:55pm CDT

The White Sox have outrighted left-hander Yoan Aybar, tweets James Fegan of The Athletic. This opens a spot on the club’s 40-man roster, which should be filled tomorrow when their previously-reported agreement with Elvis Andrus will be made official.

Aybar, 25, bounced around a bit earlier this year, getting designated for assignment by the Rockies in March, getting claimed off waivers by the Yankees and again by the White Sox. Unfortunately, it’s been a dreary season for Aybar, as he’s registered a 7.67 ERA over 29 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s racked up strikeouts at a healthy 25.9% but has also given out free passes at a 16.8% rate.

Aybar was an outfield prospect in his earlier years, only converting to pitching prior to the 2018 season. Since then, he’s shown lots of strikeout potential but also a lack of control. It could have been reasonably assumed that he would deal with those control issues with more time on the hill, given his late conversion. However, that doesn’t seem to have come to fruition yet. Despite Aybar being claimed on waivers a few times earlier this year, it seems the other 29 teams passed on a chance to grab him this time around.

Players who have previously been outrighted or have more than three years of MLB service time can reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. Aybar doesn’t meet either of those requirements, meaning he will stick around with the White Sox as depth but without occupying a spot on the roster.

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Chicago White Sox Transactions Yoan Aybar

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Brewers Designate Jakson Reetz For Assignment

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | August 18, 2022 at 3:25pm CDT

The Brewers have reinstated right-hander J.C. Mejia from the restricted list and opened a spot on the roster by designating catcher Jakson Reetz for assignment, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

Reetz, 26, was signed by the Brewers to a minor league deal in the offseason. Despite having cracked the majors with the Nationals last year, he was sent to the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers to begin this season. He tore the cover off the ball there, hitting 22 homers in just 64 games, getting bumped up to Triple-A in July.

He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in early August but optioned to Triple-A. McCalvy relays that this was because Reetz had an opt-out date in his contract. Reetz has long been considered a glove-first catcher but had that tremendous outburst in Double-A this season, which was tempting enough for the Brewers to give him a roster spot for a time. However, he wasn’t able to sustain that after a bump to Triple-A, as he’s hit just .212/.254/.424 since joining Nashville, which amounts to a 73 wRC+.

Based on that diminished offensive output, Reetz has lost his roster spot to Mejia, who was acquired from the Guardians in March. He was hit with an 80-game suspension in May due to a positive PED test but now returns to the roster after serving his sentence. Prior to the suspension, he was shelled to the tune of six earned runs in 2 1/3 MLB innings, though fared much better in the minors. In 14 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A, he’s registered an ERA of just 0.63. He’s been optioned to Nashville and will serve as depth for the time being.

With Reetz off the roster, the club is in a precarious position behind the plate, at least for now. They now only have two healthy catchers on the 40-man roster in Victor Caratini and Mario Feliciano. They also have Omar Narvaez, who is on the injured list, and Alex Jackson, who is on the minor league injured list. Narvaez began a rehab assignment on Tuesday and should be back in the mix shortly.

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Milwaukee Brewers Transactions J.C. Mejia Jakson Reetz

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Mets Claim Yolmer Sanchez, Designate Patrick Mazeika

By Steve Adams | August 18, 2022 at 2:45pm CDT

The Mets announced Thursday that they’ve claimed veteran second baseman Yolmer Sanchez off waivers from the Red Sox and opened a spot on the roster by designating catcher Patrick Mazeika for assignment.

The 30-year-old Sanchez is a former Gold Glove winner at second base who never got going with the bat in his brief time with the Red Sox. In a small sample of 37 plate appearances, he went just 4-for-37 with an 11.4% walk rate, 29.5% strikeout rate and no extra-base hits.

Sanchez’s peak years with the bat came in 2017-18 with the White Sox, when he posted a combined .253/.312/.390 batting line while playing second base on a near-everyday basis. Granted, even that career-best production was about nine percent worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but for a player with Sanchez’s speed and defensive skills, that was plenty to make him a solid regular. His line dipped to .252/.318/.321 in 2019, but Sanchez also won a Gold Glove that year, so the Sox likely didn’t mind the tepid output at the plate.

In the time since winning that Gold Glove, though, Sanchez has barely seen the Majors. He logged just 21 plate appearances with the ChiSox during the shortened 2020 season and spent the 2021 season with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate where he posted a grisly .216/.309/.352 line in 355 plate appearances. Things were going much better for Sanchez with Boston’s Triple-A club, for whom he’d turned in a .247/.377/.413 line in 305 trips to the plate.

The Mets’ infield is banged up at the moment, with Luis Guillorme out as long as six weeks and Eduardo Escobar on the injured list due to an oblique strain. New York recently called up top infield prospect Brett Baty to man the hot corner — Baty homered in his first MLB at-bat last night — and have Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso to round out the infield. Guillorme’s absence takes away the Mets’ primary backup to Lindor at shortstop, however, but Sanchez can give them a capable bench option to back up any of Baty, Lindor and McNeil while they work toward getting back to better health.

As for Mazeika, the 28-year-old has had some brief looks with the Mets over the past two seasons but has never provided anything with the bat. He’s a .190/.236/.279 hitter in 159 plate appearances at the MLB level. Mazeika does have a more palatable .272/.367/.414 output in parts of two Triple-A seasons, and the Mets have been pleased with his defensive skills. He’ll be placed on waivers within a week. Any team that claims Mazeika could option him freely in 2022, but he’ll be out of minor league options next season.

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Boston Red Sox New York Mets Transactions Patrick Mazeika Yolmer Sanchez

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Rays Designate Jimmy Yacabonis For Assignment

By Steve Adams | August 18, 2022 at 2:35pm CDT

The Rays have designated right-hander Jimmy Yacabonis for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for righty Luis Patino, who’s being recalled from Triple-A Durham to start tonight’s game, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.

Yacabonis, 30, was claimed out of the Marlins organization earlier in the month but has struggled considerably in his short time with the Rays, yielding four earned runs on six hits and two walks with four strikeouts in 3 2/3 frames. That brings Yacabonis to 11 runs in 13 innings this season (7.62) and boosts his career ERA to a mark of 5.92 in 117 innings between the Orioles, Mariners, Marlins and Rays.

Unsightly as those numbers may be, Yacabonis has a strong track record in both Double-A and Triple-A, and his ability to spin his slider has long intrigued teams. Yacabonis has been designated for assignment several times in his career but has been both claimed off waivers and traded in the past (in addition to a pair of outrights). The 2022 season is now his fifth with some level of Major League activity, further underscoring that teams are intrigued by quite a bit in his profile even if the results haven’t yet aligned with the minor league track record and his slider spin. The Rays will place him on waivers within the next week.

Patino, meanwhile, will return to the big leagues after a roller-coaster run in Durham. He’s missed significant time this season due to a Grade 2 oblique strain, throwing a wrench into the former top prospect’s bid to secure a full-time rotation spot in Tampa Bay. His most recent Triple-A run lasted three appearances: a perfect four-inning outing with four strikeouts, a disastrous start in which he yielded four runs in two-thirds of an inning, and another scoreless five-inning outing (no runs, three hits, two walks, six punchouts).

Patino has yet to establish himself in parts of three Major League seasons, although that’s not exactly unexpected for a pitcher who bursts into the big leagues at age 20. There are still some recent draftees who are the same age as Patino, but the 6’1″ righty nevertheless already has 102 2/3 MLB frames under his belt. There’s ample time for him to solidify his place alongside Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and, health-permitting, Shane Baz as a vital long-term rotation piece for manager Kevin Cash.

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Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Jimmy Yacabonis Luis Patino

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Royals Designate Joel Payamps For Assignment

By Steve Adams | August 18, 2022 at 1:44pm CDT

The Royals have designated right-hander Joel Payamps for assignment and optioned infielder Maikel Garcia to Triple-A Omaha, per a club announcement. That pair of moves will open roster space for Hunter Dozier to return from the paternity list and for righty Max Castillo to be recalled from Omaha. Castillo, whom the Royals acquired in the trade that sent Whit Merrifield to Toronto, will start tonight’s game in place of veteran Brad Keller, who has been moved from the rotation to the bullpen.

Payamps, 28, has been a solid member of the Kansas City bullpen this season, working to a 3.16 ERA with a 17.6% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a hearty 53.3% ground-ball rate, all of which makes his DFA at least a mild surprise. Fielding-independent metrics aren’t quite as bullish on the righty, who’s benefited from an elevated 78.9% left-on-base rate and given up a fair bit of hard contact (40.9%). Still, Payamps is averaging a career-high 95 mph on his heater, keeping the ball on the ground at a career-best rate and sporting a career-best 10.1% swinging-strike rate.

It’s not an elite package of results and secondary marks, but Payamps has had a better year than the standard DFA casualty and figures to have a decent chance of being claimed on waivers. That’ll be the Royals’ only course of action, as he can’t be traded now that the deadline has passed. Payamps is controllable for another four years beyond the current season but is out of minor league options, so any team to claim him will have to carry him on the MLB roster.

Castillo, 23, slotted in as the Royals’ No. 24 prospect at Baseball America in their post-deadline reranking of the system. He made his big league debut with Toronto earlier in the season, appearing in nine games (two of them starts) and working to a 3.05 ERA with a 20-to-5 K/BB ratio in 20 2/3 innings. It’s been a strong season on the whole for Castillo, who notched a 3.10 ERA in Double-A before jumping to Triple-A and yielding six runs in 31 innings (1.74 ERA).

Castillo isn’t a power pitcher but has displayed solid walk and ground-ball rates while garnering praise for an above-average changeup and command of the strike zone. The Royals will take at least some of the remainder of the season to evaluate him as a potential rotation piece, though it’s always possible that he ultimately slots in as a multi-inning reliever or swing man. For now, he’ll join Zack Greinke, Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic on the starting staff.

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Kansas City Royals Transactions Hunter Dozier Joel Payamps Maikel Garcia Max Castillo

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Phillies Claim Bradley Zimmer

By Steve Adams | August 18, 2022 at 1:39pm CDT

The Phillies announced Thursday that they’ve claimed outfielder Bradley Zimmer off waivers from the Blue Jays. He’ll take the active roster spot of center fielder Brandon Marsh, who’s headed to the 10-day injured list due to a sprained left ankle. Bryce Harper was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Zimmer, a former first-round pick and top prospect in Cleveland, was traded to the Jays on Opening Day and held a roster spot throughout the season due to his glovework and baserunning prowess. He’s posted a disastrous .105/.209/.237 batting line on the season, but that’s come in a minuscule sample of 87 plate appearances spread across 77 games.

Zimmer has never been a great hitter in the Majors, but he came into the 2022 season as a .225/.310/.347 hitter, so it’s fair to wonder whether he might’ve fared a bit better at the plate had he been given more than five to six plate appearances per week. At the time of his DFA, Zimmer had played in 22 games and received just 14 plate appearances over a span of more than six weeks.

At least in the short term, the Phils could have more at-bats to give Zimmer. He’ll give them a plus defender to slot in between lumbering sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in the outfield, providing some needed range to help offset the defensive deficiencies the Phillies face in the corners.

Marsh, acquired in a deadline deal sending top catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels, hit .250/.294/.313 in 34 plate appearances with the Phillies before sustaining his current injury on a play at the center field wall. Like Zimmer, he’s a plus defender in center, though Marsh is also a recent second-round pick and top prospect whom the Phils hope can be their everyday option in center for the foreseeable future. It seems likely that once Marsh returns, Zimmer could again be squeezed off the roster, although with rosters expanding to 28 in September, perhaps the Phils will hang onto Zimmer to give them a second plus glove in the outfield as a late-game replacement.

Harper’s move to the 60-day injured list is procedural and does not reset his timeline for a return. The “60-day” term on the 60-day IL is retroactive to whenever a player was first placed on the IL, and Harper has been aiming for a September return anyway. In other words, it’s a technicality that is not reflective of any snags in his rehab or any setbacks. He’s been working to mend a broken thumb sustained when he was plunked by an errant Blake Snell fastball. Harper also has a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, which has limited him to DH work due to an inability to throw from right field. That’ll likely remain his role once he returns next month.

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Philadelphia Phillies Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Bradley Zimmer Brandon Marsh Bryce Harper

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Tarik Skubal Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

By Steve Adams | August 18, 2022 at 10:23am CDT

Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his left forearm this week, manager A.J. Hinch announced to reporters (Twitter link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press). Skubal was already known to be out for the remainder of the 2022 season after being shifted to the 60-day injured list last week, but a surgery of this nature is significant and calls into question his readiness for the 2023 campaign. The Tigers have not provided a timetable for his recovery.

It’s a rather alarming escalation of events regarding Skubal, who just three weeks ago was at least a long-shot trade candidate in the midst of a breakout season. He exited an Aug. 1 start against the Twins after five excellent innings — three hits, no runs, no walks, four strikeouts — due to what the team termed as arm fatigue. At the time of his removal, Skubal downplayed the injury and voiced confidence that he could make his next start. As such, the subsequent trip to the 15-day injured list was viewed as something of a precautionary measure at the time.

Concern began to mount, however, when the Tigers abruptly shifted him to the 60-day injured list on Aug. 12. Hinch told reporters that day that Skubal was meeting with renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache to get an additional opinion on his elbow and forearm. The Tigers definitively shut him down for the season at that point.

Flexor tendon surgery doesn’t necessarily come with as lengthy of a recovery period as the typical 12 to 14 months for Tommy John surgery, but it’s hardly a short-term outlook in most cases. Every procedure and recovery process is different, but it’s worth noting that a pair of high-profile lefties — Danny Duffy and Skubal’s former teammate, Matthew Boyd — underwent similar procedures last year and have not yet made it back to the mound. Boyd (September surgery) and Duffy (October) were both targeting June returns but have since encountered setbacks that have impeded their progress.

Again, there are plenty of instances of pitchers returning from this injury more promptly, and the Tigers haven’t provided specifics on Skubal’s surgery. There’s no sense in attempting to speculate on a specific return date with incomplete information. That said, we’re about six months out from the start of 2023 Spring Training already, so simply looking to other flexor surgeries in recent years, it’s fair to wonder whether Skubal’s availability early in 2023 might be impacted.

It’s another blow to what’s been an astonishingly snakebitten Tigers pitching staff in 2022. For the past several years, the tantalizing trio of Skubal, Casey Mize and Matt Manning — all of them former top-100 prospects — was heralded as the foundation of Detroit’s pitching staff for years to come. Instead, that trio has been beset by injuries, two of which have now resulted in major surgeries. Skubal will face a months-long recovery from his flexor procedure. Mize underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year. Manning hasn’t gone under the knife but has dealt with a notable shoulder injury this year and a forearm strain of his own back in 2020. At the very least, Manning is healthy at the moment; he came off the injured list earlier this month and has made three solid appearances — though those are just his third, fourth and fifth starts of the season.

Detroit’s struggles extend well beyond injuries to that promising group of arms, however. Top outfield prospect Riley Greene missed the first two-plus months of the season with a broken foot and has been overmatched by MLB pitching since returning (.228/.287/.330 in 244 plate appearances). Both Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson were ranked among the game’s top five overall prospects heading into the season, but Torkelson endured similar struggles (.197/.282/.295) before being optioned to Triple-A earlier in the summer.

The Tigers have also had notable injuries to expected contributors (Austin Meadows, Michael Pineda), seen established 2021 contributors regress (Jeimer Candelario, Akil Baddoo) and received nowhere near the help they expected from their top two free-agent signings. Javier Baez is hitting just .227/.269/.378 on the year, while lefty Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched just 39 innings due to injury and to time spent away from the team while dealing with a reported marital issue. Rodriguez is expected to return this weekend (Twitter link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com), but the team’s season has clearly already gone off the rails.

Any of these woes, in isolation, would perhaps be manageable for a team to overcome. Taken in totality, however, there’s no reasonable way to expect a team to withstand that type of strain on the roster. The dam finally burst last week when the Tigers fired general manager Al Avila.

The Tigers will have a new general manager within the coming months, but it’s not yet clear just how said executive and how owner Chris Ilitch envision fixing the mess that has been the 2022 season. That much was true even before the Tigers learned that their top young starter required surgery to repair a flexor tendon. Skubal made 21 starts this season and pitched to a solid 3.52 ERA with an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a quality 45.7% grounder rate.

Prior to his injury, Skubal’s development was one of the very few bright spots in an otherwise calamitous Tigers season, but he’ll now add to the daunting sense of uncertainty that permeates the roster. The Tigers control Skubal and Mize through the 2026 season. Manning is controllable through 2027. Torkelson and Greene can be controlled through at least 2028.

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Detroit Tigers Newsstand Tarik Skubal

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Royals Move Brad Keller To Bullpen

By Steve Adams | August 18, 2022 at 8:44am CDT

The Royals have moved right-hander Brad Keller from the rotation to the bullpen, manager Mike Matheny announced to reporters (link via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). For now, Matheny indicated the plan is merely to “take a look” at Keller in this role, suggesting the organization hasn’t necessarily giving up on him as a starter entirely.

Keller’s shift to the ’pen is a reminder of how quickly things can change in baseball. Just a month ago, he looked the part of an appealing trade chip for the Royals, having pitched to a 3.96 ERA through his first 17 starts. Keller’s 16.4% strikeout rate in that time was well south of the league average, but he also boasted better-than-average walk and ground-ball rates (7.8% and 51.6%, respectively). He’d done a fine job managing hard contact and, while obviously not an overpowering pitcher, looked well on his way to another season as a solid back-of-the-rotation innings eater.

In five starts since that time, however, Keller has been rocked for 25 runs (24 earned) through just 24 2/3 innings of work. He’s twice surrendered eight runs in a start and yielded five home runs in that time (after allowing just four in his prior 43 innings of work). Keller has also walked an uncharacteristic 12.3% of his opponents during this stretch, and after allowing an 88.5 mph average exit velocity and 38.8% hard-hit rate through his first 17 starts, has yielded a 92.1 mph average exit velo and 50% hard-hit rate during this recent slump.

It’s a jarring stretch, one that mirrors many of the struggles the 27-year-old endured in a down 2021 year that, until recently, looked like an aberration. Keller was a steady member of the Kansas City staff from 2018-20 before slipping in ’21 and posting an unsightly 5.39 ERA in 133 2/3 frames (26 starts). The primary factors behind his struggles were spikes in both his walk rate and home-run rate, as has been the case over the past month. Even with those 2021 struggles and this recent stretch of five dismal outings, Keller still carries a career 4.19 ERA with well above-average ground-ball tendencies.

As is always the case, there’s a certain level of intrigue when taking a starter and dropping him into a relief role. Pitchers typically throw harder when they know they’re working in short stints and can thus throw at a higher intensity without needing to worry about saving some gas for second and third trips through the batting order. Keller’s slider has long graded out as a plus pitch, and we know he can rack up grounders. If a few extra ticks of velocity can improve the results on his sinker or generate some extra whiffs with his four-seamer (which already has above-average spin), it’s possible the bullpen version of Keller could turn some heads.

On the other side of the coin, of course, continued struggles in his new role could muddy the waters for Keller and his outlook with the Royals. He’s already in his fifth season with Kansas City, and the former Rule 5 draft pick — one of the best Rule 5 selections in recent memory, to the Royals’ credit — is only under team control through the 2023 season. He’ll be due a raise on this year’s $4.825MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, and although his struggles will limit the magnitude of that raise, he could still pull in something north of $6MM.

The Royals may tender Keller a contract regardless, considering that a reasonable price to pay for a pitcher with his track record — 2022 struggles notwithstanding. Still, a nice finish to the season — whether pitching well enough out of the ’pen to win back a rotation spot or simply shining as a reliever down the stretch — would solidify the ground on which he’s standing. The Royals did discuss Keller with other teams prior to the trade deadline, so it’s likely that those interested parties will also be keeping tabs on how he performs in a new role.

With Keller stepping to the side, the Royals’ rotation will have some fluidity. Zack Greinke will remain in place as a veteran workhorse, followed by right-hander Brady Singer, who appears in the midst of a breakout. Lefties Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic have pedestrian numbers overall but have both been quite sharp in their past eight starts. Any of Jonathan Heasley, Jackson Kowar, Drew Parrish or Max Castillo could be options to step into Keller’s rotation spot down the stretch.

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Kansas City Royals Brad Keller

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