MLBTR’s Jeff Todd breaks down Kris Bryant’s situation with the Cubs and DJ LeMahieu’s walk year with the Yankees in today’s video:
Phillies Win Arbitration Hearing Against J.T. Realmuto
The Phillies won their arbitration hearing against catcher J.T. Realmuto, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. He’ll earn the $10MM salary figure the team submitted for his final season of club control. Realmuto’s camp at CAA had filed for a $12.4MM sum (as shown in MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker).
Realmuto, who’ll turn 29 next month, enjoyed a strong first year with the Phillies in 2019 after being acquired in a trade that sent catcher Jorge Alfaro and top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez to the Marlins. In 145 games and 593 plate appearances, Realmuto slashed .275/.328/.493 with 25 home runs, 36 doubles, three triples and even nine stolen bases. He also paced the Majors with a 47 percent caught-stealing rate behind the dish and posted some of the best framing marks of his career.
The Phillies have made their interest in working out a long-term deal with Realmuto, and he’s voiced an openness if not a desire to remain in Philly for the long haul as well. While some might question whether the loss in an arb hearing will fracture that potential for a contract extension, Realmuto himself previously indicated that he doesn’t view the arbitration process in a negative light. “I know it’s not the Phillies trying to slight me at all,” he told reporters last month. “It’s more the system. There’s no hard feelings there.”
Given general manager Matt Klentak’s repeated praise for Realmuto, it’d be a surprise if the two sides didn’t at least try to work out an extension that’d keep the two-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger and one-time Gold Glove Award winner from reaching the open market next winter. As it stands, though, Realmuto ranks among the top five projected free agents next year.
With the Phillies’ win over Realmuto, teams are up 7-4 against players in the arbitration results in 2020. The Red Sox (Eduardo Rodriguez), Dodgers (Joc Pederson) Twins (Jose Berrios), Braves (Shane Greene), Brewers (Josh Hader) and Rockies (Tony Wolters) have each won arbitration cases that went to trial. The Dodgers also lost a case, though (Pedro Baez). Marlins first baseman Jesus Aguilar, Angels outfielder Brian Goodwin and Astros infielder Aledmys Diaz have won hearings against their clubs as well.
Latest On Mitch Haniger’s Injury
Mitch Haniger has undergone two surgeries in the past several weeks — core surgery and a microdiscectomy — and while there’s no clear timetable on his return to the diamond, the Mariners’ right fielder offered some additional context on his injury today while speaking to reporters. MLB.com’s Greg Johns tweets that Haniger can’t do any lifting or much activity at all for the first month following the microdiscectomy on his back. Haniger fully expects to play in 2020, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, but he’s limited to walking as his only means of exercise at the moment.
Suffice it to say, that’s not a great outlook and doesn’t bode well for a return in the early portion of the 2020 season. After that initial month has elapsed, Haniger will surely need to build up some strength before returning to full baseball activities, and he will of course need an eventual minor league rehab assignment to get up to game speed.
The level of escalation in Haniger’s injury troubles has been stark. The 29-year-old (28 at the time) sustained a ruptured testicle when he fouled a ball into himself last June. That alone is gruesome enough, but Haniger revealed today that he tore the adductor muscle attachment last summer while rehabbing that injury (Twitter link via Divish). That issue went undiagnosed, leading to the herniated disc in his back and the microdiscectomy that is now limiting him to a walking regimen. (Haniger also provided Divish with a more … colorful? … description of the injury, courtesy of his surgeon.)
That sequence of events — particularly the lack of diagnosis on the adductor issue — will surely be a frustrating revelation for Mariners fans, but Haniger explained today that he felt healthy all offseason long and only incurred a setback upon resuming baseball activities.
With Haniger on the shelf for an indeterminate period of time, the Mariners will have themselves something of a competition in right field. Jake Fraley, Braden Bishop, waiver claim Jose Siri and non-roster invitee Carlos Gonzalez will all be in the mix for playing time alongside projected left fielder Kyle Lewis and center fielder Mallex Smith.
Camp Battles: Mets’ Rotation
We looked yesterday at the rotation battle in Phillies’ camp. Now, let’s head across the division and see what’s kicking with the Mets.
Last year’s Mets staff was loaded with talent, but didn’t necessarily produce to its ceiling. Even with Jacob deGrom running out to a second-straight Cy Young award and Zack Wheeler setting the stage for a $110MM contract — one he signed with those rival Phils — the unit managed only a cumulative 4.25 ERA, good for a solid but underwhelming 12th in the game. The staff was still one of the top seven rotations leaguewide by measure of fWAR, but suffice to say the Mets’ best path to a successful season involves a starting group that out-produces virtually all others in baseball.
With Wheeler gone, new Mets skipper Luis Rojas has indicated that only deGrom is assured a rotation spot as camp gets underway. That characterization seems designed to motivate and avoid categorization of existing players. It’s all but impossible to imagine that Noah Syndergaard or Marcus Stroman will be banished to the bullpen. But it’s also a reflection of the fact that the Mets very clearly designed a battle/depth situation at the back of the rotation.
Let’s consider the depth chart …
- deGrom, duh
- Syndergaard, who has a ceiling as high as any pitcher in baseball
- Stroman, acquired last summer with the idea he’d replace the outgoing Wheeler
How does it shape up from there? Let’s look at things by group …
There’s little doubt that the plan is to keep two of these three hurlers in the rotation. If everyone is healthy, the leftover arm will presumably slide into a long relief role. The candidates:
- Rick Porcello: You hate to say that a contract guarantees a particular role, but the Mets assuredly didn’t promise Porcello ten million bucks to slot his durable arm and craft-over-power stuff into the pen. That said, the veteran righty is looking to bounce back from a rough 5.52 ERA effort and isn’t promised anything (beyond that cash) in a must-win season for the Mets.
- Steven Matz: The southpaw is the incumbent here and he owns a sturdy career 4.05 ERA. Trouble is, Matz has been dogged by health issues and some inconsistencies. Rojas spoke of some of the challenges facing Matz, who’ll need to earn his hold on a spot in the 5-man unit. He’ll earn $5MM in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility.
- Michael Wacha: It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out for the 28-year-old, whose general career trajectory has been fairly similar to that of Matz. Both have shown the ability to be high-grade starters but also endured stretches of subpar performance and related health issues. He’s only guaranteed $3MM but can earn quite a bit more through incentives, which only adds to the motivation.
Beyond that, things fall off and get quite a bit more speculative. Let’s start with the experienced big leaguers:
- Seth Lugo/Robert Gsellman: Both of these swingmen have functioned as starters and relievers in the majors. The former morphed into a highly effective reliever last year and doesn’t seem likely to shift out of that role. There’s really no indication that Gsellman will be a serious rotation candidate either. Still, these names are worth considering as part of the broader picture.
- Erasmo Ramirez: That’s roughly the same situation for the team’s last remaining pitcher with substantial MLB experience. Ramirez has had some real success in the bigs, though his performance — and opportunities — have dwindled in the past few seasons. Bringing him on was like signing a trust veteran catcher to take up residence at Triple-A: you hope you don’t really need him, but feel comfortable calling upon him if you have to.
Otherwise, no pitcher in camp has completed a full season of MLB service. Several have debuted, though it’s tough to say this smattering of arms is laden with upside:
- Stephen Gonsalves: Once a rather well-regarded prospect, Gonsalves had an ugly 2018 debut and then struggled with arm issues last year. Just what kind of form he’s in remains to be seen … that’s why it’s a camp battle!
- Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt, Yefry Ramirez, Pedro Payano: These righties are all in the 25-26 age bracket. They’ve each been drubbed in limited big league chances and have never been seen as a high-ceiling hurlers. But they also each showed either an ability to generate solid results (Lockett, Oswalt) or nice strikeout numbers (Ramirez, Payano) in a tough Triple-A environment last year. Lockett and Oswalt have 40-man spots.
- Rob Whalen: Another guy in that age range (he recently turned 26), Whalen has shown a fair bit of promise at times in the minors. He halted his career owing to depression and anxiety, thus missing the 2019 season, so it is not yet clear just where he’ll fit upon his return to the Mets organization.
If all that fails, or some youngster shows a spark, the Mets could look to a few would-be MLB debutantes. The slate of options includes some reasonably interesting names:
- David Peterson: A 2017 first-rounder, Peterson logged a solid Double-A effort last year (116 innings of 4.19 ERA ball with 122:37 K/BB ratio). It’ll be interesting to see how he handles the Triple-A launching pad.
- Franklyn Kilome: The former Phillies prospect is working back from Tommy John surgery and hasn’t yet appeared in a Mets uniform. He’s a former top-100 prospect, so … who knows?
- Thomas Szapucki: The 25-year-old southpaw made his own return from TJS last year and showed he can still get minor-leaguers to swing and miss. He’s a fairly interesting guy to watch but has just one Double-A game under his belt. Importantly, like Kilome, he also presently occupies a 40-man roster spot.
Quick Hits: Mikolas, K. Seager, Judge, D-backs
Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas will begin the season on the injured list after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. As of now, it appears Mikolas will make his 2020 debut toward the end of April or in the beginning of May, according to Goold. It’s a blow to the Cardinals’ rotation, which got back-to-back quality seasons from Mikolas in 2018-19 and now has to fill a couple openings behind Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright and Dakota Hudson. Carlos Martinez and Kwang-hyun Kim were already known to be in the running before Mikolas went down, and now Daniel Ponce de Leon, Austin Gomber, Ryan Helsley, Alex Reyes, John Gant and Genesis Cabrera are also in the mix, Goold writes.
Here’s more from around the game…
- Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager was the subject of trade rumors over the winter, when “a handful of teams” discussed him with the M’s, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes. Seager has stayed put to this point, and he’s now the longest-tenured player on Seattle’s roster, though he realizes a deal could still come together. The 32-year-old admitted to Divish that a trade remains “a definite possibility.” Seager enjoyed a bounce-back season in 2019, but he’s still owed $37MM over the next two years. His contract also includes a 2022 $15MM club option that will turn into a player option if he’s dealt, which could help stand in the way of a trade.
- Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has been battling a right shoulder issue early in camp, but he’s progressing in his recovery, George A. King III of the New York Post relays. Judge told manager Aaron Bone he’s “game-ready,” but the Yankees are taking it slow with their prized slugger, whom injuries limited to a combined 214 of a possible 324 regular-season games from 2018-19. “Start reintroducing him to full swinging and stuff in the next couple of days I would think,’’ Boone said. “I am sure in the next day or two it will probably start to ramp him back up.’’
- Thanks to a productive 2019 season at the Double-A level, Diamondbacks first base prospect Pavin Smith has a chance to make his major league debut sometime this year, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic observes. Smith was the seventh overall pick of the Diamondbacks in 2017, and while he hit well in low-A ball that year, he provided little to no power (zero home runs, .097 ISO). He then didn’t produce at a particularly impressive clip at the high-A level the next season, but Smith turned it around last year. In his Double-A debut, he put up a .291/.370/.466 line with 12 homers and almost as many walks (59) and strikeouts (61).
Tony Cingrani Generating Interest
Left-hander Tony Cingrani has shown flashes of promise since he made his major league debut with the Reds in 2012, but injuries have knocked his career off course in recent years. Cingrani, who most recently took a big league mound with the Dodgers in 2018, totaled just 22 2/3 innings that year and then didn’t pitch in the bigs at all last season. He underwent shoulder surgery in June, and the Dodgers traded Cingrani to the Cardinals in July. That was a financially motivated move on the part of both teams, though, as the Cards knew he wouldn’t pitch for them in 2019.
Just under seven months after Cingrani went to St. Louis, he remains one of the southpaw relievers left on the free-agent market. The 30-year-old might not be without a team for much longer, however. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that Cingrani’s “drawing a ton of interest.” It’s not clear which clubs are after Cingrani, nor is it known how healthy he is right now.
A starting option during the early portion of his career, Cingrani transitioned to the bullpen on a full-time basis in 2015. As a reliever, he owns a 4.27 ERA/4.19 FIP with 10.08 K/9 and 4.68 BB/9 across 175 innings. Those aren’t sparkling numbers overall, but in his most recent MLB action two years ago, Cingrani did strike out 14.0-plus hitters per nine and post a sub-3.0 BB/9, averaging just under 94 mph on his fastball along the way. With so few intriguing relief choices left in free agency, someone figures to take a low-risk flier on Cingrani if he’s nearing a return to health.
MLBTR Poll: Yankees’ Third Base Situation
A year ago at this time, Miguel Andujar was the clear-cut favorite to open the season at third base for the Yankees. Had it not been for an out-of-this-world two-way showing from the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani in 2018, Andujar would have entered the season fresh off AL Rookie of the Year honors. Andujar fell short to Ohtani, though, and then endured a year to forget in the second season of his career.
Shoulder problems limited Andujar to just 12 games in 2019, but the Yankees had no trouble carrying on without him, evidenced by their 103-59 record and their first AL East title since 2012. One reason the Yankees finally regained control of the division? Gio Urshela, who grabbed the reins at third base as a result of Andujar’s health woes and became one of the injury-riddled Yankees’ most valuable players. It was a shocking rise for Urshela, who had never been known for his offense in prior major league stints with the Indians (2015, 2017) and Blue Jays (2018).
Before last year, Urshela had not hit more than 15 home runs in a professional season, yet he managed to mash 21 in the majors in 2019. That career-high HR total helped Urshela to an outstanding .314/.355/.534 line with 3.1 fWAR and a personal-best hard-hit rate in 476 plate appearances.
Urshela’s track record of success isn’t long, but the World Series hopeful Yankees are believers. General manager Brian Cashman has made it known that Urshela’s the front-runner to open the upcoming campaign at the hot corner for New York. So, despite his impressive performance as a rookie, Andujar’s behind on the Yankees’ depth chart. They’re even giving the soon-to-be 25-year-old work at first base and in the outfield early this spring in an effort to keep his bat in the lineup, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.
Andujar may be hard-pressed to struggle more at first or in the outfield than he has at third, where he accounted for minus-25 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-16 Ultimate Zone Rating in his first season. But make no mistake, Andujar can hit. In his first season in the majors, he piled up 606 trips to the plate and batted .297/.328/.527 with 76 extra-base hits (47 doubles, 27 homers, two triples).
Considering his offensive upside, Andujar may well return to his past role as the Yankees’ primary third baseman sometime this year. Urshela, 28, will have to relinquish the job first, though. Which of the two do you think will log more time at the hot corner for the Yankees in 2020?
(Poll link for app users)
Rangers Getting Nick Solak Work In Center Field
Acquired in a July trade that sent righty Peter Fairbanks to the Rays, Rangers infield prospect Nick Solak impressed upon being promoted to the show late in 2019, hitting .293/.393/.491 with five home runs, six doubles, a triple and two steals in 135 plate appearances. Pair that with his .289/.362/.532 slash in Triple-A last year, and it’s easy to see why Rangers president of baseball ops Jon Daniels, manager Chris Woodward and the rest of the organization’s decision-makers are so intrigued by Solak’s potential.
However, while there’s room for flexibility in the infield, the Texas organization is more focused on having Solak learn a position that is largely new to him this spring; Woodward tells Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News that learning the ropes in center field is Solak’s “top priority” in Spring Training. Danny Santana is currently the team’s top option in center, but playing Solak there would free Santana to bounce around the diamond.
It’s a semi-surprising development for the 25-year-old Solak, who has played just 165 professional innings in center — nearly all of which came with the Rays’ Double-A affiliate back in 2018. He’s played left field a bit more regularly (506 pro innings), but the overwhelming majority of Solak’s experience on defense has come at second base, where he’s logged 2951 innings.
The possibility of Solak suiting up as even a semi-regular option in center field is indeed intriguing. Playing Solak in the outfield and not at third base would free the Rangers to use Todd Frazier at the hot corner regularly, giving former top prospect Ronald Guzman and perhaps non-roster players like Greg Bird and Sam Travis a chance to impress at first base. It’d also allow Santana to shift into a super-utility role that probably better suits him; the Twins tried Santana as a regular center fielder early in his career without much success.
For much of the offseason, center field looked to be an area of need in Arlington. (Of course, it very arguably still does, even with the Solak wrinkle now in play.) Delino DeShields has been the Rangers’ most regular option in recent years, but he’s now in Cleveland. Joey Gallo logged significant innings there in 2019 and graded out surprisingly well in the estimation of many defensive metrics, but the Rangers seem to prefer him in right field. Prospects Leody Taveras and Julio Pablo Martinez need more time to develop. And the Rangers clearly weren’t enamored of the options on the free-agent and trade markets — at least not at their respective asking prices.
Can Solak successfully make the move? FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen pegs his speed and arm at average on the 20-80 scale but grades him as a well below-average defender overall (though he nevertheless checked in as the game’s No. 109 overall prospect on Longenhagen’s rankings). Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo offer similar opinions at MLB.com, calling him a “fringy” defender all over the infield and outfield despite his athleticism and ability to run. Of course, if Solak hits like he did in Triple-A and in his big league debut, the Rangers might very well be able to live with some defensive growing pains as he adjusts to increased outfield reps. Santana will remain on hand as an option, should the experiment prove unsuccessful, but the manner in which Solak takes to his new position will be an fascinating scenario to watch as the Cactus League progresses.
Camp Battles: Phillies’ Rotation
Finishing an even 81-81, the Phillies were a disappointment in 2019, in part because of their rotation. Their starting staff wound up 17th in the majors in ERA, 20th in K/BB ratio and 23rd in fWAR. The subpar production from the Phillies’ group of starters contributed to the team’s eighth straight year without a playoff berth, but the club has since since made a real effort to improve its rotation and better its chances of earning a postseason spot in 2020.
The Phillies’ biggest move of the winter was signing right-hander Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM guarantee. He’s now near the top of a staff that’ll also include Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta from one through three. Right-hander Zach Eflin’s set to occupy the fourth position, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, which leaves a handful of names vying for the last place in the Phillies’ rotation. Touted prospect Spencer Howard could make his debut this year, but the Phillies will bring him along slowly, so it doesn’t seem he’s in the running for a season-opening rotation spot. Here’s a look at those who are…
- Vince Velasquez, RHP: The 27-year-old Velasquez throws hard (around 94 mph), but his ERA has hung around the 5.00 mark in recent seasons. He worked out of the Phillies’ rotation and bullpen last year, striking out just under 10 batters per nine (against 3.11 BB/9) from the team’s rotation. Problem is that Velasquez didn’t do well to prevent runs in either role. He ended up with a 4.91 ERA/5.21 FIP over 117 1/3 innings.
- Nick Pivetta, RHP: Pivetta was an effective starter for the Phillies as recently as 2018, but the wheels came off last season. He concluded the year with an ugly 5.38 ERA/5.47 FIP in 93 2/3 innings, some of which came as a reliever, though he did continue to post an average fastball upward of 94 mph.
- Ranger Suarez, LHP: The 24-year-old Suarez didn’t make a single start for the Phillies last season, but he did turn in a 3.14 ERA/3.89 FIP with 7.77 K/9, 2.22 BB/9 and a 55.1 percent groundball rate in 48 2/3 innings from their bullpen. Suarez does have quite a bit of starting experience in various levels of the minors, though. He owns a 4.02 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 87 1/3 innings in Triple-A ball.
- Cole Irvin, LHP: Irvin, 26, made his major league debut last season, mostly working from the Phillies’ bullpen. He tossed 41 2/3 frames of 5.83 ERA/5.06 FIP ball with 6.7 K/9 and 2.81 BB/9. Irvin was far better as a Triple-A pitcher from 2018-19, during which he logged a 3.07 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 255 innings.
- Damon Jones, LHP: Jones, 25, was an 18th-round pick of the Phillies in 2017 who hasn’t gotten to the majors yet, but he does rank as their 20th-best prospect at MLB.com. However, Jones had difficulty across a 34-inning Triple-A debut last season, when he walked just under seven batters per nine. Overall, Jones has issued free passes to a bit under five hitters per nine in the minors, so despite a lofty K/9 (11.1), it’s difficult to imagine him opening the season in Philly’s rotation if he doesn’t significantly improve his control.
DJ LeMahieu, Yankees Haven’t Yet Discussed Extension
7:30pm: General manager Brian Cashman also tells Ken Davidoff of the New York Post that he has yet to engage in extension talks, though he of course wouldn’t broadcast the fact if the two sides to sit down to talk dollars and years. “[O]bviously if we did start any negotiations with anyone at any time absent of free agency, we would always try and keep them private, to the degree that is ever possible,” said the GM.
Davidoff also spoke to manager Aaron Boone about LeMahieu’s fit with the club, and the skipper unsurprisingly sounded like someone who’d be on board with LeMahieu continuing to don pinstripes for the foreseeable future: “[T]here’s just something a little bit different that he brings to the room that I think guys are drawn to. Even though he’s not the most vocal guy, I think guys look up to him and enjoy him.”
As Davidoff points out, any new contract for LeMahieu wouldn’t impact the Yankees’ luxury line, so long as it is structured as a new deal beginning in the 2021 season.
9:20am: Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu says he hasn’t yet held any talks with the club about a new contract, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports on Twitter. He also reiterated his affinity for the organization after one golden campaign.
LeMahieu’s contract situation isn’t necessarily a hot topic in Yanks’ camp, but it is fair to wonder whether he’ll ultimately be approached about an extension. The free agent deal he signed last January covered two seasons, meaning DJLM is presently slated to return to the open market next winter.
The Yankees have already made out like bandits on this signing. LeMahieu racked up a .327/.375/.518 batting line with a career-high 26 home runs in 655 plate appearances last year, easily topping expectations. He placed fourth in the American League MVP vote. Suffice to say, LeMahieu earned the entirety of his contract and then some in the first year.
Whether LeMahieu can repeat anything approaching that output is an open question. He did have one other high-grade offensive campaign under his belt, 2016 with the Rockies, but has otherwise typically checked in with below-average overall numbers with the bat.
LeMahieu is already 31 years of age, so it’s not as if he’s an exceptionally youthful player. But his history of high-contact hitting presents a decent floor with the bat even if his power recedes. And LeMahieu is an excellent infield defender who can move around as needed.
So, will the Yanks ride out the deal and hope it keeps paying off? Or will they double down on their initial faith, which was proven wise the first time around? The team could go in either direction, but it’s certainly not difficult to imagine the Yankees deciding to pursue talks. If anything, it’s a bit of a surprise that they haven’t yet kicked off a conversation.
