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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates had a Murphy’s Law season in 2019, finishing what they hoped would be a competitive campaign with a 69-93 record that landed them in the NL Central cellar. Thanks to their ever-present payroll issues, they’ll face several tough decisions this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gregory Polanco, OF: $22MM through 2021 (including buyout of 2022 option; contract also contains 2023 option)
  • Felipe Vazquez, LHP: $13.5MM through 2021 (including buyout of 2022 options; contract also contains 2023 option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Starling Marte, CF: $11.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout (contract also includes 2021 option)
  • Chris Archer, RHP: $9MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout (contract also includes 2021 option)

Free Agents

Like more than one quarter of the teams in baseball, the Pirates’ offseason began with the search for a new manager. Clint Hurdle, just days after publicly stating that he’d been assured of his return in 2020, was fired with two years remaining on his contract. The Pirates, who haven’t been in the market for a new manager in a decade, have reportedly interviewed Twins bench coach Derek Shelton, Athletics bench coach Ryan Christensen and Cardinals first base coach Stubby Clapp — each of whom has managed in the minors but not the big leagues. Former Rangers manager Jeff Banister is reported to be under consideration, too, as are Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay, Diamondbacks director of player development Mike Bell and Astros bench coach Joe Espada.

A new team president will need to be brought into the fold as well following this week’s announcement that Frank Coonelly will depart after 13 seasons. That search won’t be as exhaustive, it seems, as the Bucs are reportedly set to name a replacement as soon as next Monday.

The departure of Hurdle came not only after another disappointing season in terms of wins and losses but on the heels of reported discord in the clubhouse. Kyle Crick injured his finger in a fistfight that broke out with closer Felipe Vazquez, but that was only the beginning of the team’s Vazquez troubles.

A bombshell report in September brought forth charges of statutory sexual assault of a minor against Vazquez. A criminal complaint released by Westmoreland County shortly thereafter revealed, even more abhorrently, that during conversations with the police, Vazquez admitted to prior sexual contact with the alleged victim — a minor. Precisely what will happen with the remaining $13.5MM he’s owed by the Pirates will depend on the course of criminal and immigration proceedings along with any ensuing league discipline. Whether or not the contract will be voided entirely isn’t known; what is clear is that Vazquez will not receive his salary while he’s not a member of the roster. Given what has been reported to this point, it’s difficult to imagine him pitching for the the Pirates again — or for any other MLB team.

The altercation between Crick and Vazquez wasn’t the only instance of a behind-the-scenes clubhouse problem in 2019, though. Setup man Keone Kela was suspended by the team after a reported altercation with bullpen coach Euclides Rojas. Kela had also previously butted heads with and been disciplined by the Rangers, who traded him to the Pirates in 2018. Still just 26 years old, Kela has struck out 30 percent of the hitters he has faced in the Majors and is clearly a high-end talent, but he’ll likely be on the trade block this winter. The Pirates, after all, also explored the possibility of moving him back in July. That series of off-field issues won’t do his trade value any favors, but Kela, who is entering his final season of club control, is an obvious change-of-scenery candidate.

As is typical with the low-budget Pirates, there will be more trade scenarios to explore, but the extent to which they’re motivated to make a deal is dependent on where ownership sets the payroll threshold. Pittsburgh opened 2019 with a meager $74.8MM on the books, and at present they’re projected to come in around $71.4MM (assuming no non-tenders and assuming the options of both Starling Marte and Chris Archer are exercised). Take away Vazquez’s $5.75MM salary but add in another $6-7MM to round out the roster with pre-arbitration players, and the Buccos are close to the payroll with which they opened last season after an 82-79 finish. Despite their dip in record, the Pirates did somehow manage to slightly outdraw their 2018 total of 1.464 million fans (1.491 million). However, they also still ranked 14th in 2019 National League attendance — ahead of only the Marlins.

Pittsburgh’s Opening Day payroll topped $90MM each season from 2015-17 before sliding to $86MM in 2018 and the aforementioned $74.8MM in 2019. Put another way, the Bucs can afford to increase payroll. Ownership’s willingness to do so in a season with diminished expectations of winning, however, is far from a given. So, if payroll is pared back further — or if a more long-term outlook is adopted after a 93-loss season — who could GM Neal Huntington look to move?

The Bucs reportedly aren’t shopping Marte, although even if they were, it wouldn’t behoove them to broadcast that intention. More importantly, they may not find a better time to move him. Marte still has two affordable years remaining on his contract at a time when it’s extremely difficult to see Pittsburgh contending in the NL Central and at a time when several hopeful contenders need center fielders. The Phillies, Braves, D-backs, Padres, Giants, White Sox and Rangers are all among the clubs who could realistically look for an impactful center fielder this winter. Philadelphia’s need is particularly glaring.

Despite a lack of certainty in the Pirates’ rotation — more on that later — it also strikes me as worth pondering whether the club will look to find a change of scenery for Archer as well. Selling low on a pitcher for whom they paid an exorbitant price in the first place would sting, but things haven’t panned out for Archer in Pittsburgh. The Pirates didn’t have success trying to push Archer back into throwing a two-seam fastball — a pitch he’d already abandoned once in his career — and they were unable to help him curb his home-run troubles even after kicking the two-seamer to the curb once again in mid-June.

However, after cutting bait on that lackluster sinker, Archer struck out a whopping 31.3 percent of the hitters he faced and induced swinging strikes at a 13.4 percent clip. Those are encouraging signs from a pitcher who also has above-average spin on his breaking ball, above-average velocity on his heater and two years and $20MM remaining on his contract. That’s an eminently affordable rate for most teams, but it’s perhaps more than the Pirates care to commit to a pitcher who now looks like a reclamation project after struggling to fit into Pittsburgh’s mold. Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows aren’t walking back through the door, but the Pirates could definitely still extract some value if Archer is shipped elsewhere. That the offseason trade market is light on intriguing pitchers only enhances Archer’s appeal.

The question for the Bucs would be what to target in these theoretical trade scenarios. Embarking on a full rebuild would mean simply prioritizing the best available young talent, but they haven’t indicated that they’ll be going down that road. In terms of immediate roster needs, the Pirates are largely set in the infield. Kevin Newman impressed at shortstop in his rookie season, Adam Frazier enjoyed a solid year and Josh Bell finally tapped into the power that made him such a touted prospect. Jacob Stallings had a terrific defensive year behind the plate but didn’t offer much offense. Fellow catcher Elias Diaz, who missed the beginning of the season due to a viral infection, had a lost year all around.

In the outfield, Bryan Reynolds — acquired in what was at the time an unpopular Andrew McCutchen trade — is going to garner Rookie of the Year consideration and looks like a potential long-term piece. Gregory Polanco’s first year back from shoulder surgery was a dud, but he’s signed for at least two more seasons and only a year removed from a solid 2018 showing.

The points of upgrade in the lineup seem clear: the Pirates could use help at third base, behind the plate and (if they trade Marte) at one outfield spot.

At the hot corner, Colin Moran has been serviceable but unspectacular when hitting against right-handed pitching and virtually unplayable against lefties in his career. He’s not a great defender, but Moran has yet to even reach arbitration eligibility, so he’ll be back as an option. The Pirates have top prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes, one of the game’s elite defensive prospects, looming in Triple-A. He could push for a big league roster spot by next summer, so a stopgap at third base or a platoon partner for Moran is all that’s really needed. That can be found in free agency (e.g. Logan Forsythe, Todd Frazier or Tim Beckham, assuming the latter is non-tendered).

In the outfield, the Pirates currently have Reynolds, Marte and Polanco, making them likelier to add depth pieces than a starting-caliber name — if they keep Marte. If he’s moved, the club could look to get a young outfielder back, but the free-agent market will also have ample corner options. Avisail Garcia and Kole Calhoun (assuming his option is bought out) could fit the bill, or the Pirates could simply re-sign Melky Cabrera, who was productive early in 2019 before his offense cratered later in the year.

Things are trickier behind the plate. Diaz looked like a potential option following a quietly productive 2018 campaign, but his illness-shortened season makes him more of a question mark. Stallings showed great defensive aptitude, but he’ll soon turn 30 and has just 282 MLB plate appearances under his belt. Catching help would be a logical area of focus in trades. Even if the Pirates hang onto their top chips, it should be addressed in free agency. Yasmani Grandal is going to be too expensive, but a second-tier option like Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud or Robinson Chirinos would likely fit into their price range.

The bigger questions for the Pirates come on the pitching staff. Jameson Taillon’s second career Tommy John surgery, paired with Archer’s struggles, was a massive blow to the Pirates’ 2020 hopes. Add in the fact that uber-prospect Mitch Keller was shelled in 48 MLB innings, and the rotation outlook is unexpectedly bleak. (To Keller’s credit, he was plagued by a ridiculous .475 average on balls in play and did rack up 65 strikeouts, so there’s cause for optimism moving forward.) The rest of Pittsburgh’s rotation includes team innings leader Joe Musgrove, who profiles as a mid-rotation arm, and two pitchers who posted ERAs north of 5.00 in 2019 (Trevor Williams and Steven Brault).

In the bullpen, things are similarly cloudy — particularly with Vazquez likely out of the picture and Kela standing out as a trade candidate. Richard Rodriguez and Michael Feliz turned in solid ERAs with more questionable secondary stats. The rest of the relief corps was a revolving door of shrug emojis. Pirates relievers ranked 23rd in the Majors in ERA, 22nd in FIP and 20th in xFIP as a collective unit in 2019, and that was with Vazquez and Kela combining for 89 2/3 innings. The incumbent group offers minimal hope for improvement.

Whether the Pirates move their most desirable assets now or reload and make another run in 2020, they’re going to need multiple arms added to the pitching staff, some catching help and some infield depth. If they keep Marte and Archer, they’ll likely be limited to low-cost fliers on rebound candidates, given that they’ll already be within $9MM of last year’s Opening Day payroll mark. If one or both of that pair is moved to another club, Pittsburgh could technically spend more aggressively, but the urgency to do so would be diminished, as dealing Marte and/or Archer would in many ways signal a step back.

Barring an unexpected payroll hike, the Pirates don’t look like major players in free agency (as usual). Contending in next year’s NL Central looks like a significant long shot, and the extent to which they believe that possible will have a direct impact on the future of players like Marte and Archer.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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Once again, the Angels are coming off a season in which they failed to capitalize on the presence of baseball’s best player, Mike Trout. The Angels, who have gone to the playoffs just once since Trout’s major league introduction in 2011, stumbled to a dismal 72-90 record this year. In fairness, though, the club dealt with adversity that would have been difficult for anyone to overcome. There were myriad injuries (including to the likes of Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton), but worse than anything, there was the death of left-hander Tyler Skaggs. A beloved teammate and integral member of the Angels’ rotation, Skaggs passed away July 1, and the Angels never recovered on the field.

The Angels fell way out of contention in the second half of the season, which cost manager Brad Ausmus his job after just one year in the role. They quickly replaced Ausmus with the highly respected and accomplished Joe Maddon, a perennial winner who they hope will help turn their fortunes around in 2020. If not, general manager Billy Eppler could be the next key member of the organization who finds himself on the chopping block. Now on the verge of a contract year, Eppler’s likely facing a make-or-break offseason – one that could see the Angels make an earnest attempt to finally return to the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Odds are quite good the Angels’ winter will largely center on acquiring starting pitching, as their rotation has regularly been a below-average unit in recent years. It was especially bad in 2019 (thanks in part to the loss of Skaggs), evidenced by the group’s 30th-place ranking in fWAR and 29th overall ERA. The return of Ohtani, who was unable to pitch at all this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October, could be like a major acquisition in and of itself. But it would be foolhardy to count on Ohtani as the end-all, be-all, given that he’s coming off two surgeries (including a September knee procedure) and barely has 50 MLB innings to his name.

If he’s actually healthy, Ohtani may be able to provide the Angels’ rotation front-line production, though the rest of their options look decidedly less promising. Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning appear to be fine complementary pieces, but the Halos need to aim higher if they’re going to force their way into the playoff race next season. What can they do? The answer’s obvious: Either sign Astros superstar and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole or, if he opts out of his Nationals contract, Stephen Strasburg.

Cole and Strasburg stand out as the crown jewels of the upcoming winter’s free-agent pitching class, both are Southern California natives and the Angels have the spending capacity to reel in either. Super-agent Scott Boras represents Cole and Strasburg, which could theoretically serve as a roadblock for an Angels team whose owner, Arte Moreno, has had beef with Boras in the past. However, the Angels are just a winter removed from adding a Boras client, Matt Harvey, as their largest offseason signing. Harvey cost “only” a guaranteed $11MM, granted, while Cole may be on his way to a record contract for a pitcher (at least $220MM, if not significantly higher), and Strasburg should be able to secure something close to $150MM.

However much Cole and Strasburg end up raking in, it would make sense for the Angels to go all-in on one of the two. Deciding to buy low on the likes of Harvey and Trevor Cahill while tiptoeing around the Patrick Corbin market a year ago blew up in the team’s face. Now, it’s all the more evident the Angels need an ace-caliber hurler to join Ohtani near the top of their rotation, and either Cole or Strasburg would fit the bill.

Let’s say the Angels do get Cole or Strasburg. Then what? Well, they’d still need at least one more quality veteran starter. Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jake Odorizzi are the best of the rest, though each should command paydays of at least $50MM. In all likelihood, any of them would be too pricey for a team with Cole or Strasburg in tow. However, they’d still be able to pick up less expensive help. Competent innings have been hard to come by in recent years for an Angels club that injuries have consistently ravaged, so someone like Dallas Keuchel (if he again encounters a disappointing market), Cole Hamels (if he has to settle for a lesser deal than expected), Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Kyle Gibson or Julio Teheran (likely via trade) could make sense as a secondary addition to the legit ace we’re forecasting the Angels sign.

The Angels’ bullpen looks like a less pressing issue than their starting staff, yet it’s still an area they could stand to address. Hansel Robles was quietly one of the surprise relievers in baseball in 2019; Ty Buttrey, Cam Bedrosian, Noe Ramirez and Felix Pena put up respectable years in their own right; and Keynan Middleton should be ready for a full season as he continues to distance himself from May 2018 TJ surgery. All six of those hurlers are in line to return to the Halos next season, which is – for lack of a better word – a relief. They’re all righties, though, so it wouldn’t be a shock for the Angels to at least target a southpaw to complement them. Probably not Aroldis Chapman or Will Smith, who’d cost too much for a team that has to pour so much money into its rotation, but Jake Diekman and Francisco Liriano would make for affordable targets. It’s important to note that Diekman and Liriano are consistent against lefty and righty batters alike – which is a must-have trait for a southpaw with MLB set to implement a three-batter minimum rule in 2020.

As for the Angels’ collection of position players, Trout and Upton will keep occupying two-thirds of the outfield; Andrelton Simmons will continue to hold down short; the underrated David Fletcher will primarily man second or third; Ohtani makes for a more-than-capable DH; and for better or worse, Albert Pujols will stay as a DH/first baseman. But what of the rest of their lineup?

The Halos are likely stuck with another year of Zack Cozart, who could see a fair bit of action at second or third if he’s healthy. Fellow infielder Luis Rengifo had a decent rookie season, while yet another first-year infielder, Matt Thaiss, at least showed some pop. There’s also Tommy La Stella, who was amid an unexpected All-Star year before suffering what basically proved to be a season-ending fractured tibia at the beginning of July. So, it’s entirely possible the Angels will be comfortable with Fletcher, Cozart, Rengifo, Thaiss and La Stella at second and third. If not, free agency may be a route for the club to take. FAs-to-be Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson look wholly unrealistic, but that may not be the case for Mike Moustakas/Todd Frazier at third or the slew of low-priced second basemen on the cusp of reaching the open market.

Moving to the outfield, the main question is whether the Angels will buy out solid all-around right fielder Kole Calhoun. It seems likely, as doing so would save the team $13MM to spend on other sore spots. They could easily plug in Brian Goodwin and/or another similarly inexpensive player in right as a stopgap as they wait for one of their top prospects to show up. Angels farmhands Jo Adell – who’s among the cream-of-the-crop prospects in baseball – and Brandon Marsh are closing on the majors, so it seems unlikely the team will allocate a substantial amount of money to right field in 2020.

Aside from the Angels’ pitching staff, the catcher position stands out as their most troubling area. Last winter’s relatively cheap signing of Jonathan Lucroy failed, while in-season pickups Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom recorded abysmal numbers. The Angels are now left with Stassi, Bemboom and Kevan Smith (who had a passable overall season at the plate but floundered in the second half) as the only backstops left on their 40-man roster. That’s obviously not ideal. Still, it’s up in the air how much money the Angels will spend to upgrade the position. It could depend on how much they use to fix their rotation, which should be the priority. Should a Cole or Strasburg join the mix, it’s likely the game’s No. 1 pending free-agent catcher, Yasmani Grandal (an Angels target last winter), will end up out of their price range. Otherwise, any of Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud, Robinson Chirinos or even Austin Romine (whom Eppler knows from the Yankees) look like players who could potentially pique the Angels’ interest.

“Obviously, Arte’s never been worried about spending money,” Maddon recently said of Moreno. That’ll need to prove true in the next several weeks, as the clearest path to properly address the Angels’ most glaring weakness – starting pitching – will be throwing cash at the problem. Whether it’s Cole or Strasburg, it seems imperative for the team to land at least one of them if it’s going to finally crawl out of the muck in 2020. It’s hard to imagine this going down as a resoundingly successful offseason for the Angels if they swing and miss on both of those aces.

Latest On Boston’s Pitching Coach Search

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Almost two months after the firing of president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, the Red Sox are set to name Chaim Bloom as their chief baseball officer. Bloom will inherit a team whose coaching staff is just about complete, though manager Alex Cora & Co. still have to find a pitching coach to grab the reins from the reassigned Dana LeVangie. The race consists of five individuals and is nearing a conclusion, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

Of Boston’s quintet of potential LeVangie successors, the previously reported Bryan Price is the only one with experience as a major league pitching coach, Speier relays. Although Price is best known for his ill-fated run as the Reds’ manager from 2014-18, he’s a former professional hurler who oversaw the pitching staffs of the Mariners, Diamondbacks and Reds for a combined 13 years before Cincinnati chose him for its top job.

It’s not fully clear whom Price is vying against to join Boston’s staff, though Speier notes the club has also spoken with in-house candidates and possibly even coaches from the college ranks. Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal (subscription link) suggested last week that Dave Bush, an ex-big league right-hander who has worked with the Red Sox for three seasons, may be in line for a promotion to take over as either the MLB team’s pitching coach or its assistant pitching coach. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes that Bush is “surely” one of the four non-Price choices the Red Sox have interviewed. If true, that still leaves three mystery names in the running for the position.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles are still working through the ugly stages of a rebuilding effort, but could still be an opportunistic buyer of high-value talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Chris Davis, 1B: $69MM through 2022 ($6MM annually deferred, without interest, all the way through 2037)
  • Alex Cobb, RHP: $29MM through 2021 ($4.5MM annually deferred through 2032)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Baltimore Orioles depth chart | Baltimore Orioles payroll outlook]

There’s not a lot to love about the MLB roster in Baltimore, and the few established pieces look like trade candidates. That makes for a freewheeling situation for still-fresh GM Mike Elias, who has loads of roster and payroll flexibility to work with.

The Orioles aren’t obligated contractually for very much spending, but the promises they do have out — to Chris Davis and Alex Cobb — are near-complete write-offs. That’s not to say that a turnaround is impossible to imagine in either case, though it’s tougher to envision for Davis. (Whether and when he’s cut loose may be an ownership call.) The O’s will hope that Cobb can function as an important part of their 2020 pitching mix and perhaps ultimately be dealt. But it’s nearly impossible to imagine either contract being movable this winter.

Things begin getting interesting from a transactional perspective when you look down the list of arbitration-eligible players. I’ve recently suggested Jonathan Villar as a trade candidate. But my eyes bulged when I saw his arbitration projection. It’s tough to see Villar as a highly appealing trade candidate at that price. The O’s may well be better served letting him go test the market while reinvesting the cash on other opportunities. Hanser Alberto is an easier piece to move, though the Baltimore organization may also prefer to maintain the middle-infield stability if nothing interesting is offered up (especially if Villar is sent packing).

With little in the way of player-contract trade capital, Elias and co. have surely dedicated a good amount of thought and analysis to a trio of fairly intriguing, homegrown players. First baseman/outfielder Trey Mancini is the organization’s best hitter and current flag bearer. Righty Dylan Bundy is still youthful and possesses relatively rare swing-and-miss stuff for a starter. And reliever Mychal Givens has an electric arm, though as with Bundy that hasn’t always translated to results. It’s not hard to imagine each of these players drawing trade interest from various other organizations. None is dirt cheap or without his warts, but each now has ample MLB experience and an appealing skillset.

The O’s really can’t afford to cling onto Mancini, Bundy, and Givens with the idea that they’ll help spring a return to contention. But there’s also not much reason to sell these players off just to make a move. In concept, they’re the organization’s slugger, ace, and closer; the team needs gate draws and some baseline competence. And it can certainly hope that some or all kick up their value during the first half of 2020.

There’s also another possibility here, mostly with regard to Mancini. As the 27-year-old bounced back from a messy 2018 effort, chatter increased about a possible extension. There’s not a huge amount of appeal in promising big cash for the late-arbitration and early-free-agency seasons of a good-but-not-great corner outfielder who is in sight of his thirties. But it’s not impossible to imagine the O’s being willing to offer a reasonable sum to entrench Mancini as a holdover star and bridge to their next contending outfit.

Supposing Mancini remains on hand, the O’s may soon have a nice power duo taking aim at the readily assailable walls of Camden Yards. Top prospect Ryan Mountcastle, another first base/corner outfield option, is probably as ready as he’ll ever be after a nice Triple-A season. (Though he may still remain in the minors for a few weeks out of camp owing to service-time considerations.) Mountcastle doesn’t walk much at all and has not stuck at more valuable defensive positions, but remains a well-regarded prospect with the bat.

Between those two, Davis, and DH/corner infielder Renato Nunez, the Orioles are covered in the defensively limited slugger department. They’ve got a decent number of outfield possibilities as well, limiting the likelihood that the organization will target players who do their defensive work on the grass. Up the middle, the team does have a pair of possibilities in Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. Former Rule 5 pick Anthony Santander probably deserves a longer look in a corner capacity, while DJ Stewart and Dwight Smith Jr. are other options.

Speaking broadly, there isn’t a need to address this area of the roster. But the O’s could surely make room if a particularly interesting opportunity arises and will at a minimum consider bringing in some veteran camp competition. Another spot that’s even less in need of tinkering is behind the dish. Chance Sisco and Pedro Severino form a solid, cheap, and youthful duo that can be supported with minor signings. Recent top overall draft pick Adley Rutschman won’t be rushed, but isn’t expected to take much development time.

The 4-5-6 places in the lineup are a source of greater intrigue — particularly if, as noted above, Villar and/or Alberto end up on the move. The club held onto Rule 5’er Richie Martin all season long to gain his rights permanently, but Martin is almost certainly due for a much-needed stint in the upper minors. There’ll likely be at least one middle-infield opening. At the hot corner, Rio Ruiz is still just 25 and picked up the pace offensively in the second half. But he’s not a slam-dunk to hold down the position all year long. Fortunately for the Orioles, there are loads of second and third-base types floating around this year’s free agent market. The Baltimore organization could pick a buy-low target, hunt for younger players that shake loose, or even consider taking on an unwanted contract from another team as part of a larger trade.

All of that is prelude to the area of primary focus this winter for the Baltimore front office: the pitching staff. On the one hand, the situation presents an unquestionable jam. The Orioles’ pitching staff was altogether brutal in 2019, easily lagging the rest of baseball with a collective 5.67 ERA and eye-watering 1.90 home runs per nine. There’s no spending your way out of that. On the other hand, these O’s won’t be competitive and don’t need to be. They ought to have plenty of cash to put to work if they see interesting opportunities to add. And while Camden Yards (and the AL East) make for a deterrent to potential bounceback pitching targets, the Orioles can promise ample opportunity to hurlers that need a chance to get their careers back on track.

The rotation is a particular need. John Means was a major bright spot in 2019, turning in 155 innings of 3.60 ERA ball, but some ERA estimators were very down on his underlying performance (5.48 xFIP; 5.02 SIERA). Bundy is a useful pitcher that still may have a bit of upside, but he has yet to put it all together. Perhaps Cobb can bounce back after hip surgery, but he’s a total wild card. There are a few notable farmhands that could be possibilities — Hunter Harvey (who debuted last year in a relief role), Keegan Akin, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer, Michael Baumann, Cody Sedlock — but the O’s will take the long view on them and can’t be sure what to expect.

It seems reasonable to anticipate some additions to that unit — perhaps reasonably significant ones. Asher Wojciechowski and Gabriel Ynoa were among the pitchers that gave the Orioles some innings last year; they and others remain available. But it’s fair to presume the club would rather be trotting out other hurlers while also avoiding some of the scrambling that was needed this year. When it comes to open-market and/or trade targets, Elias and company arguably ought to aim higher than they did last winter with Nathan Karns and Dan Straily.

The bullpen isn’t much different, except that it’s much easier to throw a bunch of arms at the situation — particularly with all the names just noted floating around. But there, too, there’s cause to think that some veteran supplementation would help, especially if Givens ends up on the move. Attracting decent bounceback candidates may be even tougher in the relief realm, but offering an MLB contract and late-inning role can do wonders.

If 2019 was mostly about landing Rutschman and overhauling the organizational structure to suit Elias’s vision, then how about 2020? Well, the club will be picking second in the coming draft and can surely look ahead to another lofty pick in 2021. But now’s also the time for the new front office to make shrewd assessments of its own sub-elite prospects, identify some diamonds in the rough, and perform the kinds of subtle roster tweaks that can make a big difference down the line.

Latest On Shohei Ohtani

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Although they’re on the heels of yet another disappointing campaign, the Angels may be in position to make a significant splash on the pitching market this offseason. Whether or not that happens, though, it’s imperative for the club’s beleaguered starting staff to get a healthy Shohei Ohtani back in 2020. Ohtani, who didn’t pitch this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October, is progressing in his recovery from TJS and the left knee procedure he underwent last month, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. The 25-year-old is currently throwing from 100 feet and on schedule to retake the mound toward the end of November, according to Fletcher.

The emergence of Ohtani in 2018, his first stateside season after coming over as a much-ballyhooed Japanese free agent, was one of the most encouraging developments in recent memory for the Angels. Not only did Ohtani star with the bat that year, but he further proved he was worth the free-agent fuss by posting front-end production when he was healthy enough to take the ball. He threw just 51 2/3 innings during a 10-start, injury-limited rookie campaign, but the right-handed hurler made those appearances count with an impressive 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP, 10.97 K/9 and 3.83 BB/9.

Now, Ohtani’s fresh off another strong (albeit injury-shortened) season as a hitter. The hope is the lefty-swinging DH will continue to provide a solution at that position while enjoying a much healthier year as a pitcher in 2020. If Ohtani’s able to deliver a much larger chunk of innings next year, and if the Angels make some serious noise on the open market (Gerrit Cole? Stephen Strasburg?), it could go a long way toward a much-needed return to contention. The Halos are heading into a crucial offseason in which upgrading their pitching will be a must, regardless of whether general manager Billy Eppler, new skipper Joe Maddon & Co. are counting on substantial contributions from Ohtani.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals didn’t quite tear their roster down to the nuts and bolts, but 2019 nevertheless represented the first full season in another rebuilding effort for the Kansas City franchise. That approach manifested in the form of a ghastly 59-103 record, leaving the team with the fourth overall draft pick in 2020. Despite ample need throughout the roster, though, don’t expect an aggressive winter from the Royals in the midst of a rebuild.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

  • None (though Gordon’s option is expected to be bought out)

The first order of business for the Royals will be to anoint a replacement for longtime skipper Ned Yost, who announced his retirement as the manager in K.C. late in the season. The Royals have been conducting what could prove to be a nominal search; it’s been rumored for the past year that former Cardinals skipper Mike Matheny, who was named a special advisor to GM Dayton Moore early last offseason, was being groomed for the spot.

Reports out of Kansas City since Yost’s announcement have largely suggested that Matheny is indeed next in line, although the Royals have interviewed quality control coach Pedro Grifol, bench coach Dale Sveum and bullpen coach Vance Wilson. It’s an all-internal list and one that could’ve benefited from an earnest search for outside voices, if that quartet does indeed represent the entirety of the field. The limited scope of Kansas City’s “search” feels far more insular than it needs to be.

Matheny, the apparent favorite, was booted in St. Louis after taking plenty of criticism for his bullpen management, his aversion to utilizing modern baseball data and amid reports of strife between veterans and rookies in the clubhouse. Right-hander Jordan Hicks, the subject of some such reports, downplayed them last July, but Matheny was dismissed a day later (the extent to which those were related remains unclear).

The first order of roster business is Alex Gordon’s 2020 option. That $23MM figure doesn’t stand a chance of being picked up, so the Royals will instead pay Gordon, who hit .266/.345/.396 in 150 games this past season, a $4MM buyout. That doesn’t necessarily preclude a reunion, of course. Gordon hasn’t yet made up his mind about whether he’s interested in returning for his age-36 season, but the Royals have been clear that they’d like him back. The franchise icon may ultimately opt to retire, but if he does play, it’ll be for the Royals.

Once Gordon’s situation is sorted out, the Royals will be primarily tasked with finding ways to bolster the team’s stable of up-and-coming talent and perhaps supplement that group with some low-cost free agents. Kansas City has been largely reluctant to entertain offers on Whit Merrifield in the past, but the team-friendly contract extension to which he agreed last January carries enormous value. The 30-year-old still isn’t a household name but absolutely should be; he’s led the Majors in hits in each of the past two seasons and posted a combined .298/.348/.454 in 2072 plate appearances since becoming a regular in 2017 (despite the pitcher-friendly nature of Kauffman Stadium).

Merrifield will turn 31 this winter, and the Royals aren’t likely to contend until at least his age-32 season — if not his age-33 campaign. A player with that type of offensive output who is also capable of playing a plus second base or any of the three outfield spots would carry trade value even if he were playing near his market value. Merrifield, however, can be controlled for a total of $21MM over the next four seasons (with the fourth year checking in as a $6.5MM team option).

Upwards of half the teams in baseball should salivate over the notion of acquiring him at that rate, and the Royals could rightly ask for multiple MLB-ready (controllable, pre-arbitration) pieces in return. Kansas City reportedly sought three such players in July and should aim high again this winter. That’s not to say they should shrug and accept the best package if the offers are underwhelming, but cashing in Merrifield’s deal for multiple younger players whose ages more closely align with the Royals’ timeline to competitiveness is sensible, even if some K.C. fans will bristle at the notion. Whether Moore & Co. legitimately try to move him remains to be seen, but it’d be surprising if Merrifield’s name didn’t come up in trade rumblings this winter.

Looking elsewhere around the roster, the other veterans on board could generate some interest. Starting pitching is in demand every winter, and this winter’s trade market is particularly lacking in terms of quality veteran names who could be on the move. Danny Duffy’s value isn’t what it used to be, and his contract probably feels a bit heavy to other clubs. But he’d likely generate some interest, particularly if the Royals agreed to take on a smaller contract in return.

Ian Kennedy is overpaid at $16.5MM but was able to successfully reestablish himself as a viable big league arm in 2019. The Royals reportedly didn’t have interest in paying down any of his salary at this year’s trade deadline. Taking on a lesser contract in return for Kennedy’s deal, though, could grease the wheels on a deal and perhaps net some minor league talent for an otherwise expiring asset who won’t command a qualifying offer (and would be ineligible to receive one anyway by virtue of having already received a QO earlier in his career). Kennedy turned in 63 1/3 innings of 3.41 ERA ball (2.99 FIP, 3.46 SIERA) while averaging 10.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 0.85 HR/9 this past season. He also racked up 30 saves and notched a career-best 44.4 percent ground-ball rate. Ian Kennedy the starter had fallen off the map, but as noted back in May, Ian Kennedy, the reliever, is rather interesting.

If there’s another asset with waning team control who could be marketed, that’d be your surprising American League home run king: Jorge Soler. However, drumming up a market could be tough, even with Soler coming off a 48-homer season. The 27-year-old (28 in February) also led the American League in strikeouts and comes with negative defensive value. He’d likely need to land on a team with a pure DH opening, and there simply aren’t many around the league — at least not among teams that are hoping to contend in 2020-21 (when Soler is under club control).

On that note, it’s worth laying out Soler’s contract structure. He’s entering the final season of a nine-year, $30MM deal signed with the Cubs as a prospect back in 2012. That deal, as is common among Major League deals for Cuban-born amateurs, allows Soler to opt into arbitration when he’s eligible. He opted not to last winter on the heels of a miserable 2017 season but surely will do so with a 48-dinger campaign in the rear-view mirror. The type of deal Soler signed is no longer permissible under MLB’s international free agency structure, so he’ll be one of the final players with this type of opportunity.

MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan wrote not long ago that rather than explore a trade of Soler, he expects the team to instead explore an extension with the burgeoning slugger. There’s certainly an argument against doing so, but I explored what such an arrangement might look like at greater length late last month.

As pertains to the open market, the Royals aren’t likely to be big spenders. They opened this season with a payroll just under $97MM and have about $77MM committed to the 2020 roster, including arbitration-eligible players. They could have around $20MM to spend and still keep in line with last year’s payroll, but that doesn’t mean they’ll spend that entire sum.

A new deal for Gordon would probably cost only a few million dollars (perhaps with some incentives), but if he retires, the outfield is a plausible area for upgrade. Merrifield seems ticketed for right field in 2020 — at least early on as a means of getting a continued look at prospect Nicky Lopez at second base. Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling could compete for center-field reps, but the Royals otherwise are lacking in appealing options. Jorge Bonifacio served an 80-game PED suspension this season and didn’t even receive a September call-up; his grip on a 40-man roster spot hardly seems secure.

The free-agent market also features more corner outfield types than teams in need of such players (particularly when factoring in the ample supply of outfielders available via trade). Any of Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, Yasiel Puig, Corey Dickerson or Kole Calhoun (assuming the Angels buy out his option) could make sense in Kansas City — though Ozuna and Castellanos may be too pricey (particularly if Ozuna receives a qualifying offer). Names like Domingo Santana, Nomar Mazara, Hunter Renfroe and Jesse Winker could all circulate on the trade rumor mill. Options aren’t in short supply, and adding a corner bat for the Royals makes sense.

Looking to the infield, the Royals have Adalberto Mondesi at shortstop and Lopez beginning the season at second base, but adding a veteran middle infielder for depth seems prudent. Mondesi underwent shoulder surgery following a somewhat bizarre sequence of events late in the season. Kansas City activated him from the injured list in early September, with Yost telling reporters at the time that Mondesi had been asked not to dive for balls in the field or slide headfirst into bases (Twitter link via Flanagan). Mondesi instinctively dove for a ball to his right later that month and reinjured his left shoulder — incurring the tear that led to his surgery. His availability for the start of the season isn’t guaranteed, so adding a veteran in the Jose Iglesias mold could be sensible to safeguard against an early Mondesi absence and/or poor play from the yet-inexperienced Lopez.

Hunter Dozier, fresh off a breakout, should lock things down at third base. Kansas City has a tentative platoon of Ryan McBroom and Ryan O’Hearn at first base, but adding a more experienced first baseman certainly wouldn’t hurt. O’Hearn impressed in 170 plate appearances in 2018 before faceplanting in 370 PAs in 2019. McBroom will be a 28-year-old rookie with 83 career plate appearances under his belt next season.

Behind the plate, there’s no need for an addition with Salvador Perez coming back and a pair of backup options in Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria. But the Royals will need to take a hard look at who’s throwing the ball to said receivers.

In Duffy, Brad Keller and Jakob Junis, the Royals have a talented but inconsistent top three starters. July acquisition Mike Montgomery will be tendered a contract and get the opportunity to make some starts as well. Beyond that, the combination of Glenn Sparkman, Jorge Lopez (who may be strictly a reliever now), Heath Fillmyer, Eric Skoglund, Trevor Oaks and Jesse Hahn doesn’t do much to inspire confidence. Kansas City has some notable rotation prospects on the way with Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar and Kris Bubic inching closer to the big leagues, but there’s room to add a veteran starter to this mix on a one-year deal.

In the ’pen, things are even more muddled. Kennedy is lined up to close, and righty Scott Barlow has some promising stretches even with a brutal run in the middle of the year. Tim Hill had a solid half-season’s worth of innings from the left side. Kevin McCarthy posted a middling ERA with one of the game’s lowest strikeout rates. Between Lopez, Hahn, Rosario and Kyle Zimmer, the Royals have four out-of-options relievers on the 40-man roster. The bullpen is ripe for turnover and is also perhaps the clearest place to add some veteran stabilizers who could eventually be flipped for younger talent. The Royals won’t be pursuing a Will Smith reunion, but the market should have plenty of interesting short-term options (Steve Cishek, Craig Stammen, Joe Smith, etc.) and bounceback candidates (Cody Allen, Brad Brach, Jeremy Jeffress). There’s room and reason to add multiple pieces here.

Moore began the 2018-19 offseason by speaking of the need to win more games, and a tepid offseason that saw the Royals spend $14.2MM on Billy Hamilton, Chris Owings, Jake Diekman, Brad Boxberger, Terrance Gore and the aforementioned Zimmer didn’t get them there. Kansas City lost 104 games in ’18 and 103 games in ’19. While no one’s expecting the Royals to vie for a postseason berth in 2020, the team’s collection of pitching prospects is a year closer to the Majors. Mondesi is more established. Soler and Dozier enjoyed breakout seasons. The Gordon contract is expiring, and Kennedy’s deal is nearly off the books, too. The Royals aren’t in for an aggressive offseason relative to the rest of the league, but they should be more aggressive than they were last winter — particularly if the front office is serious about last year’s pledge to strive for more wins.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Astros

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The Astros are on the cusp of facing the Nationals in Friday’s third game of the World Series. Even though Houston hosted the first two contests, neither went its way. The Astros dropped a nail-biter Tuesday before the Nats slaughtered them Wednesday. It remains to be seen whether the Astros will mount a spirited comeback, but regardless, their season has a maximum of five games left. After that, they could see some important contributors walk via free agency We’ve already previewed the Nationals’ upcoming list of unsigned players. Now, let’s see which players the Astros might see depart on the open market…

Gerrit Cole, RHP:

  • Fittingly, Cole rivals a National – third baseman Anthony Rendon – as arguably the best pending free agent set to reach the market. Cole’s coming off a 326-strikeout, potential AL Cy Young-winning season at the age of 29 – not to mention a mostly legendary fall – so no one should be surprised if he surpasses or even crushes David Price (seven years, $217MM) for the richest contract a pitcher has ever received. The type of money Cole looks likely to command could end up being too much for Houston, meaning the organization should savor every remaining pitch the superstar throws in its uniform.

Robinson Chirinos, C:

  • While Cole’s likely on his way out of Houston, it wouldn’t be remotely shocking to see the team retain Chirinos. Signed to a $5.75MM guarantee last winter after the in-state rival Rangers cut him loose, the 35-year-old Chirinos has turned in yet another respectable campaign at the plate. Although Chirinos’ reputation as a defender isn’t great, he has at least one key advocate in Astros co-ace Justin Verlander. Chirinos is Verlander’s personal catcher, and manager A.J. Hinch told Dan Shulman of ESPN last week that the two have an incredibly strong bond. Regardless of whether Chirinos sticks with Verlander and the Astros, he should do better on his next contract, perhaps having performed well enough to earn a deal in the two-year, $10MM to $12MM vicinity.

Wade Miley, LHP:

  • Like Chirinos, Miley’s another bargain offseason pickup who has panned out for the Astros. True, Miley didn’t crack their ALCS or World Series rosters. Nevertheless, it’s hard to argue with the regular-season value he gave the team after signing for $4.5MM over the winter. Miley, 32, logged a 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP with 7.53 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 and a 49.7 percent groundball rate over 167 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, his expected weighted on-base average against (.301) checked in below the real wOBA hitters posted off him (.314). Exciting? Not really. Good enough for another guaranteed deal (maybe even a multiyear pact)? Sure.

Will Harris, RP:

  • There don’t seem to be too many relievers who are more underrated than Harris, a 35-year-old coming off yet another regular season of strong production. Harris amassed 60 innings of 1.50 ERA ball (with a lesser but still-impressive 3.15 FIP), recorded 9.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9, and put up a terrific 54.6 percent grounder rate. Harris is now quietly one of the top soon-to-be free-agent relievers out there, so despite his age, he’s another candidate for a two-year accord.

Joe Smith, RP:

  • Smith, 35, joins Harris as a veteran reliever whose quality career has flown somewhat under the radar. He sat out until mid-July this year after suffering a ruptured left Achilles last winter, but the soft-tossing Smith returned to post a Harris-esque 1.80 ERA/3.09 FIP, 7.92 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 49.3 percent grounder rate across 25 regular-season frames. Smith has been similarly tough in the postseason, having piled up 6 1/3 frames of one-run ball. While he probably doesn’t have Harris’ earning upside, Smith should at least be able to land a decent-paying one-year contract.

Hector Rondon, RP:

  • Hey, here’s another proven reliever whom the Astros are at risk of losing. Rondon, however, wasn’t nearly as difficult on opposing hitters as Harris and Smith were during the regular season, nor has the team leaned on him in the playoffs. The 31-year-old’s regular campaign consisted of 60 2/3 frames of 3.71 ERA/4.96 FIP ball with 7.12 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 50 percent grounder rate. Compared to 2018, Rondon’s strikeout rate fell nearly 4 percent and his HR-to-fly ball percentage more than doubled, though he still pumped heat upward of 96 mph. He looks to be a decent bet for a relatively inexpensive one-year deal once the offseason arrives.

Martin Maldonado, C:

  • Let’s move back behind the plate to discuss Maldonado, whom the Astros have acquired via trade in back-to-back summers. They reportedly tried to keep the then-free agent with a two-year, $12MM offer last offseason, but he declined and ended up settling for a $2.5MM guarantee with the Royals. Financially, it didn’t work out, and after another year in which Maldonado combined below-average offense with plus defense, it’s easy to imagine him winding up with a second straight payday in the $2.5MM range.

Collin McHugh, RHP:

  • McHugh entered 2019 with several years’ experience as a sturdy starter and one season (’18) of excellence as a reliever under his belt, but things went haywire. The 32-year-old faltered in his return to a starting role early in the season. Between that and the elbow issues he dealt with, the Astros moved McHugh back to their bullpen. He was much more effective in that position, though McHugh’s season came to a premature end in September because of more elbow troubles. Needless to say, the long-solid McHugh’s about to hit free agency at the wrong time.

Pirates Outright Three Players

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The Pirates have outrighted a trio of players, per the International League transactions page. Catcher Steven Baron and infielders Corban Joseph and Jake Elmore were all dropped from the Pittsburgh 40-man roster.

It’s not at all surprising to see this group of names exiting the premises. They’re all reliable hands to have around, but not valuable enough to hold a roster spot through the offseason. Each will have the right to elect free agency, though certainly a return to the Pirates organization can’t be ruled out.

The 28-year-old Baron has enjoyed three cups of coffee in the majors but doesn’t have anything approaching a statistically significant track record at the game’s highest level. The former first-rounder will surely take up another depth spot at Triple-A entering the 2020 campaign.

Joseph received brief time with three big-league clubs last year. He’s a three-year MLB vet but still hasn’t quite cracked the century mark in total plate appearances. Soon to turn 31, he’s a .294/.362/.457 hitter in 1,710 career trips to the dish at the Triple-A level.

Both of those players are on the same general track as the 32-year-old Elmore, who has circled the block a few more times but also will be viewed by the market as a depth option. He has appeared in over two hundred MLB contests over parts of six seasons, slashing a cumulative .215/.292/.275 over 527 plate appearances.

Eduardo Perez Reportedly “Clear Front Runner” To Manage Mets

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The Mets’ wide-open managerial hunt appears to be narrowing. Eduardo Perez is now seen as the “clear front runner” to earn the gig, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

It isn’t clear what Perez needs to do to lock down the position, but he’s among the relatively large number of candidates to receive a second interview. Former star Carlos Beltran, Twins bench coach Derek Shelton, and Mets quality control coach Luis Rojas are among those who’ve had multiple chats with the New York organization’s decisionmakers.

Nationals first base coach Tim Bogar is another name in the running. He is said to have impressed in his second sit-down, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (Twitter link), though it may not be enough to land the job unless something gums up Perez’s candidacy.

Naturally, there are also still hints of mystery candidates floating around. And it’d be foolhardy to make any assumptions until an announcement is made. But it certainly sounds as if Perez is angling to take the reins.

Perez features impeccable baseball bloodlines, polished communication ability, and experience as a bench coach. He has managed in Puerto Rican winter ball and has an extremely varied background in the game. Perez would follow Aaron Boone in moving from the media realm into the big seat in a New York dugout.

Mike Olt Announces Retirement

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Corner infielder Mike Olt has announced on Instagram that his playing career is over. The former first-round pick hangs up his spikes at 31 years of age.

Olt was once considered one of the game’s thirty or so best prospects, but never quite panned out. Eyesight issues likely played a significant role in preventing Olt from reaching his ceiling.

After coming up through the Rangers system, and briefly cracking the bigs in 2012, Olt was shipped to the Cubs as part of the 2013 Matt Garza trade. He ended up taking four hundred MLB plate appearances over three seasons, slashing just .168/.250/.330.

Olt has tried to push his way back into the majors over the past four seasons but failed to gain traction. He appeared briefly in 2019 in the Atlantic League and Mexican League. MLBTR wishes Olt all the best in the future.

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