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Cardinals To Select Cesar Prieto

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The Cardinals are calling up César Prieto, reports Francys Romero. They’ll select his contract onto the 40-man roster tomorrow. St. Louis has a pair of openings on the 40-man, so they’ll only need to make a corresponding active roster transaction.

Prieto, a left-handed hitting infielder, gets his first big league opportunity at age 26. He didn’t begin his affiliated career until he was 22 years old. He’s a Cuba native who played four seasons in that nation’s top league before defecting while on an Olympic trip in 2021. He signed a $650K bonus with the Orioles and began his U.S. career with their High-A affiliate a year later.

The O’s traded Prieto to St. Louis as part of a three-player return for Jack Flaherty at the 2023 trade deadline. His prospect stock dropped between 2023-24 as he posted unspectacular numbers at Triple-A. Prieto has performed well in his third season at the top minor league level. He’s batting .295/.359/.448 with nine homers and 11 steals across 449 plate appearances.

Prieto’s calling card is his plus contact ability. He hasn’t struck out in more than 15.2% of his plate appearances at any minor league stop. He has fanned just 13.4% of the time this season. Prieto has a very aggressive offensive approach and often expands the strike zone. He’s not going to take many walks or hit for much power, but the bat-to-ball skills should allow him to hit for average. Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan of FanGraphs ranked him the #25 prospect in the St. Louis system last month, projecting him as a utility infielder.

The Cardinals have used him at second base, third base and shortstop in the minors. Scouting reports suggest he’s a fringe defender who doesn’t have a huge arm. He probably fits best at the keystone but could see action throughout the infield. He would have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason if the Cards didn’t add him to the 40-man roster. It appears they were planning to select his contract during the winter, so they’ll bring him up a bit ahead of time for his first exposure to big league pitching.

St. Louis is using Thomas Saggese, Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman from right to left on the infield. Winn has played through a sore left knee for much of the second half. He acknowledged earlier this week that he’d probably benefit from rest but said he wanted to remain in the lineup in hope of a long shot playoff berth (relayed by Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat). The Cardinals are 6.5 games back of the Mets with three teams to surpass in the Wild Card race. It’s not yet known if they’ll shut Winn down or simply swap Prieto in for one of Garrett Hampson or José Fermín on the bench.

A’s Release Luis Urias

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The Athletics released infielder Luis Urías, according to the MLB.com transaction log. He’d been designated for assignment on Monday. Urías has sufficient service time to refuse a minor league assignment while collecting what remains of his $1.1MM salary, so a release was inevitable. The A’s preferred to give playing time to controllable infielders Zack Gelof, Darell Hernaiz and Brett Harris for the stretch run.

The 28-year-old Urías can now set out in search of a new opportunity. He’d need to sign somewhere by September 1, at least on a minor league deal, to be eligible for a postseason roster. Urías will be a free agent at the beginning of the offseason in either case, so he’ll presumably only draw interest from a contender that wants to strengthen its infield depth.

Urías got out to a decent start to the season. He hit four homers with a .245/.345/.490 showing through the end of April. He has an underwhelming .227/.309/.307 slash in 271 plate appearances since the beginning of May. Urías has sliced his strikeout rate to a career-low 13.6% clip, but he hasn’t been much more productive overall than he was between 2023-24. He rarely makes hard contact and hasn’t hit for much power since combining for 39 homers with the Brewers from 2021-22.

Defensive metrics grade Urías around league average at both second and third base. He’s a righty hitter who has generally been better against left-handed pitching, as one would expect. That hasn’t been the case this season, as he’s hitting .183 with one homer in 68 plate appearances with the platoon advantage. If he catches on with another team before year’s end, his signing club would pay him the prorated $760K league minimum.

Mets Outright Ty Adcock

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August 28: Adcock went unclaimed and was outrighted off the 40-man roster, according to the MLB.com transaction tracker. He’ll remain in Syracuse. That opens the 40-man roster spot for Tong’s promotion tomorrow.

August 26: The Mets have placed right-hander Ty Adcock on waivers, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The Mets haven’t announced the move but they do need to open a 40-man spot for the upcoming promotion of prospect Jonah Tong on Friday, so perhaps the two are related.

Adcock, 28, has a fairly limited big league track record. He has thrown a combined 23 innings over the three most recent seasons with a 5.48 earned run average. His 20.4% strikeout rate in that sample is a bit below par but he has only walked 4.3% of opponents.

His minor league résumé provides a larger batch of data to look at. He has shown some flashes down on the farm but hasn’t been having a great season. From 2022 to 2024, he tossed 57 1/3 innings in the minors with a 4.24 ERA, 26% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. With Syracuse this year, he has logged 29 Triple-A innings with a 5.28 ERA, 19.2% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate.

Adcock is in his final option season, so he’ll be out of options next year. That would make it harder for him to hold a roster spot through the offseason and into 2026, so he was presumably running out of time.

Despite his lack of results this year, it’s possible some club is attracted to the stuff. His fastball averages in the upper-90s and he also throws a cutter, splitter, sinker and slider. Though he’ll be out of options next year, he is still optionable for the remainder of this season, which could give him appeal to a club in need of some extra bullpen depth. He’ll be postseason eligible with another club if claimed before September 1st.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images

Buddy Kennedy Elects Free Agency

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Infielder Buddy Kennedy elected free agency after being outrighted by the Dodgers, according to the MLB.com transaction log. He’d been designated for assignment earlier in the week when Kiké Hernández returned from injury.

Los Angeles claimed Kennedy off waivers from Toronto two weeks ago. That coincided with an IL placement for Max Muncy. He joined Tommy Edman, Hyeseong Kim and Hernández on the shelf. Kennedy provided an extra infielder alongside Miguel Rojas and rookie Alex Freeland between second and third base. He went 1-17 over seven games.

A former fifth-round pick of the Diamondbacks, Kennedy has played sporadically in parts of four big league seasons. He’s a .178/.271/.274 hitter in 181 career plate appearances. The 26-year-old has split time in Triple-A this year between the Philadelphia and Toronto systems. He has turned in a solid .268/.372/.408 showing in 77 combined games.

Kennedy will look for a minor league deal elsewhere. He’d need to be in another organization by September 1 to be eligible for a postseason roster. He’d be a long shot to get a playoff roster spot either way, of course, but it stands to reason a signing team would prefer that flexibility if they’re adding him as upper minors infield depth.

Jonathan Loáisiga Done For The Year

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Yankees right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga has a flexor strain and won’t return this year. However, he is unlikely to require surgery, which perhaps bodes well for next year. Manager Aaron Boone provided the news to reporters including Chris Kirschner of The Athletic and Greg Joyce of  The New York Post.

Loáisiga, 30, is a talented pitcher but he has often been held back by injuries. In 2023, he underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow and only pitched 17 2/3 innings that year. In April of 2024, he required internal brace surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow.

He reached free agency and the Yankees decided to sign him for 2025, even though he was still recovering from that surgery at the time. Before all the injuries popped up, Loáisiga had put up some good numbers. Over 2020 and 2021, for instance, he logged 93 2/3 innings with a 2.50 earned run average, 23.8% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 58.4% ground ball rate.

The Yanks were surely hoping that a clean bill of health could get him back to that level but it didn’t play out that way. He was reinstated from the injured list in mid-May but landed back on the IL due to mid-back tightness. He started a rehab assignment shortly thereafter but then suffered the flexor strain which has now ended his season. Around those injuries, he gave the Yankees 29 2/3 innings with a 4.25 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 50.5% ground ball rate.

The Yankees bolstered their bullpen ahead of the deadline by trading for David Bednar and Camilo Doval, adding those two to a group that already included Devin Williams, Luke Weaver and others. They recently welcomed Fernando Cruz back from his own IL stint. The relief corps has a 4.88 ERA in August but there’s lots of talent in there and they have a chance at righting the ship down the stretch and into the postseason. Getting a healthy Loáisiga in there could have helped but that won’t happen now.

The Yankees will have to make a decision about next year. Loáisiga’s $5MM deal came with a $4.5MM salary and $500K signing bonus, plus a $5MM club option for 2026 with no buyout. They were willing to place a $5MM bet on him last offseason but it’s possible his subpar performance this year pushed them away from doing so again. This injury presumably makes it even less likely they trigger the option. But they clearly like the player and he’s unlikely to require surgery, so perhaps they could re-sign him at a different price point.

Boone also relayed, per Kirschner, an update on lefty Ryan Yarbrough. The southpaw will likely be working out of the bullpen when he comes off the IL. He gave the Yanks some good results in a swing role earlier this year, making eight starts and eight relief appearances with a 3.90 ERA. Unfortunately, a right oblique strain put him on the IL in mid-June.

While Yarbrough has been away, Luis Gil returned from his own IL stint to retake a spot in the rotation. Also, Cam Schlittler came up from the minors and has been really good through his first eight starts. The rotation now features those two alongside Max Fried, Carlos Rodón and Will Warren.

Yarbrough has been rehabbing lately and has been getting stretched out. His third and most-recent outing saw him toss 4 2/3 innings. But there’s not really a spot for him in the rotation, so the Yankees will seemingly put him in a long relief role. They also have Paul Blackburn doing long relief work and could cut him, though rosters expand in September, which will perhaps allow the club to roster both of them.

Photo courtesy of Jason Parkhurst, Imagn Images

The Reds’ Newest Infield Question

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It wasn’t long ago that the Reds seemed to have an infield surplus. That has changed quickly. The Jeimer Candelario signing was a bust. Jonathan India was traded to Kansas City. Noelvi Marte tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance in Spring Training 2024. Matt McLain sustained significant shoulder and rib injuries and missed all of last year. First basemen Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer regressed, with Encarnacion-Strand’s stock completely tanking when he underwent wrist surgery in July ’24.

Cincinnati has needed to turn to trade a few times. They acquired glove-first utilityman Santiago Espinal in Spring Training last year. Gavin Lux was brought in as a lefty-hitting utility piece last offseason. Lux has been an average hitter and will be due an arbitration raise on this year’s $3.325MM salary. Espinal hasn’t hit at all and will probably be non-tendered in his final arbitration season. Cincinnati went back to the trade market this summer, taking on the final four and a half years on Ke’Bryan Hayes’ contract to land him from the Pirates. He’s now the starting third baseman, moving Marte to what appears to a full-time corner outfield role.

Elly De La Cruz and Hayes should be settled on the left side of the infield. Neither spot on the right side is established. Steer shouldn’t be playing every day on a contender. That might also be true of McLain, whose return from injury has been a major disappointment.

The former first-round pick carries a .221/.299/.329 batting line in 120 games. McLain came out of the gate on fire, homering in three straight games within the season’s first weekend. He has eight home runs in nearly five months since then. He’s hitting .217/.295/.305 in 464 plate appearances since the beginning of April. By measure of wRC+, he’s among the ten least productive hitters in that time (as are Hayes and Espinal).

It hasn’t cost McLain much playing time. That’s in part because of their lack of alternatives. They’d presumably have been more willing to play Espinal if he’d been hitting any better. McLain has dropped to the bottom third of the lineup after hitting second for a good chunk of the season. He looked like a legitimate building block two seasons ago. He finished fifth in Rookie of the Year balloting after hitting 16 homers with a .290/.357/.507 slash in 89 games. Then came last year’s injury-ruined season and this year’s dramatic downturn.

Some of the regression was foreseeable. McLain was never going to repeat the .385 average on balls in play that he had as a rookie. The Reds presumably also expected some rust after the year off. His strikeout and walk profile hasn’t changed much, but he’s doing far less damage on contact. He’s hitting fewer line drives and more lazy fly balls.

There’s also no sign that McLain is turning things around as he gets further removed from the injuries. Excluding his four-day tear in March, he’s been a below-average hitter in every month except June. His numbers have bottomed out over the past few weeks. McLain is hitting .217 with one extra-base knock (a double) and 24 strikeouts in 69 plate appearances in August.

Cincinnati doesn’t have many other options for the final month of the season. The only real alternative would be to play Lux more frequently at second base to open DH at-bats for Miguel Andujar. There’s a defensive downgrade from McLain to Lux and questions about whether Andujar would continue to hit as well as he has if he plays every day rather than getting heavy usage against left-handed pitching. The front office will have a tougher decision on whether to look outside the organization in the offseason.

McLain turned 26 earlier this month. He’s under arbitration control for four more seasons. As recently as this spring, the Reds viewed him as a core piece. McLain told Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer in April that the team approached with a preliminary extension framework before Opening Day. Talks didn’t get anywhere as both sides waited to see how McLain would perform after losing the ’24 season. It’s fair to say the Reds won’t be eager to revisit extension talks now, but it’s not known to what extent they might’ve soured on his long-term projection.

They have a few upper minors infielders who could push for playing time in 2026. Sal Stewart has hit 20 homers with a combined .309/.385/.528 slash between the top two minor league levels in his age-21 season. He’s a promising offensive player but faces questions from scouts about his position. Stewart has played mostly third base in the minors. He has started 15 games at second base this season after making 36 appearances there a year ago. Prospect evaluators consider him a below-average athlete, runner and defender. Do the Reds think he could be a viable if fringy second baseman, or is he more of an option to push Steer for first base reps?

There’s the opposite question with Edwin Arroyo. He’s a gifted defensive shortstop who may have a limited offensive ceiling. Arroyo lost all of 2024 to his own shoulder surgery. He has returned to put together a solid season in Double-A. He’s hitting .289/.351/.380 with good plate discipline metrics but only has three home runs. The Reds will put him on the 40-man roster this offseason, but he has yet to see any Triple-A action. Arroyo shouldn’t have any issue sliding over to second base defensively. He probably wouldn’t make a huge impact at the plate as a rookie.

Tyler Callihan made his MLB debut earlier this season. He broke his wrist crashing into the outfield wall while playing left field in his fourth MLB game. Callihan required season-ending surgery. He can compete for an Opening Day roster spot next spring and is viewed as a bat-first player who’s probably better suited for left field than second base.

The Reds probably don’t want to count on any of Stewart, Arroyo or Callihan out of the gate. They’ll need to decide whether to give McLain another shot or to add someone in free agency or trade. Gleyber Torres is the top free agent at the position. He might be attached to draft pick compensation as a qualifying offer candidate. Signing him would have echoes of the Mike Moustakas/Candelario deals that have flopped on the Reds in the past.

They could take a flier on bat-first utilityman Luis Rengifo. Trade options at the position include Brandon Lowe ($11.5MM club option), Ozzie Albies ($7MM club option), Luis García Jr. (likely $6-7MM arbitration salary), and Lenyn Sosa (pre-arbitration). India will probably be available in free agency with the Royals likely to non-tender him, but that’s only because he’s coming off a replacement level season with Kansas City.

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images.

Corey Seager To Undergo Appendectomy, Not Ruled Out For Season

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Rangers shortstop Corey Seager has appendicitis and will undergo an appendectomy. President of baseball operations Chris Young relayed the news to reporters, including Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, saying that Seager will be “out a period of time” but hasn’t been ruled out for the entire year. Per Jeff Wilson of DLLS Sports, infielder Dylan Moore will be added to the roster with outfielder Evan Carter moved to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot.

Though Seager isn’t completely ruled out for the season, it’s obviously a rough blow. Seager is the best player on the team. Despite missing some time due to hamstring strains and only playing in 102 games, he has produced four wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs. He has 21 home runs, a 13% walk rate, 19.6% strikeout rate, .271/.373/.487 batting line, 137 wRC+ and excellent grades for his shortstop defense.

No club ever wants to lose its best player to an injury but the Rangers are in an especially precarious spot. They have been hovering around .500 for most of the year, currently sporting a 68-67 record. That puts them 4.5 games back of a playoff spot with a month left to go.

They’re not totally knocked out but they’ve taken a few big punches lately. In the past month-plus, they have lost Seager, Carter, Marcus Semien, Nathan Eovaldi, Jake Burger, Sam Haggerty, Chris Martin, Jon Gray and Cole Winn to the injured list. Carter recently suffered a wrist fracture and this transfer means he’s ineligible to return before mid-October. Semien’s foot injury is going to cost him four to six weeks. Eovaldi’s rotator cuff strain is likely season-ending.

The club still has a chance to make a late charge for a postseason spot but doing so without so many key contributors will be tough. There’s also a ticking clock right now due to some granular MLB rules. The Rangers tried to avoid the competitive balance tax this year but reportedly went just over the line when making upgrades to the roster ahead of the trade deadline. They could sneak back under the tax line if a few players are claimed off waivers. However, a player would only be postseason eligible with a new club if claimed prior to September 1st. Since waivers are a 48-hour process, the Rangers would have to put guys on the wire in the next 24 hours or so, or else they would suddenly have significantly less appeal to other teams.

Merrill Kelly, Tyler Mahle, Danny Coulombe, Hoby Milner, Phil Maton, Shawn Armstrong and Patrick Corbin are all impending free agents. They therefore have no value for the Rangers beyond this year. If the club decides to punt on 2025, they could place some or all of them on waivers. It’s unlikely all of them would get claimed but Kelly definitely would and a few others probably would as well. Adolis García can be retained for 2026 but is a non-tender candidate and could make sense for the wire as well.

Time will tell if Seager’s injury pushes them to make that bold decision. For now, Josh Smith will likely step in for Seager at shortstop, per Wilson. That will leave playing time at second, which will be taken by some combination of Ezequiel Durán, Cody Freeman and Moore.

Moore and the Rangers just signed a minor league deal a few days ago after he had been released by the Mariners. He’s having an awful season, which prompted that release. He has a .193/.263/.359 batting line and 35.7% strikeout rate.

He has been better than that in the past. He came into the year with a career .206/.316/.384 line and 102 wRC+, despite striking out in 29.8% of his plate appearances. He had 104 stolen bases and had played every position except catcher.

Though he hasn’t been good this year, he’s essentially free for the Rangers. Since the Mariners released him, they remain on the hook for the majority of his salary. The Rangers only have to pay him the prorated portion of the league minimum salary for any time he spends on their roster. That amount will be subtracted from what the Mariners pay.

Photo courtesy of Kevin Jairaj, Imagn Images

Frankie Montas To Undergo UCL Surgery

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Mets right-hander Frankie Montas has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow and will require surgery, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It seems unclear exactly what kind of surgery Montas will require but Heyman says it will “very likely” be a full Tommy John, which would wipe out his entire 2026 season. Even a lesser surgery such as an internal brace procedure would put him on the shelf for most of next season.

The news doesn’t come out of nowhere. Montas was placed on the 15-day injured list a few days ago with a UCL injury. Manager Carlos Mendoza described it as “pretty significant” and said Montas would not be returning in 2025. The news of the surgery has more of an impact on 2026, which could go down as a lost season for Montas. A full Tommy John surgery generally requires 14-plus months of rehab. The internal brace alternative can sometimes allow a player to come back around a year later, though even that is a rare outcome.

Time will tell what 2026 has in store for Montas. Either way, his signing is officially a regrettable one for the Mets. Coming into 2025, they gave him a two-year, $34MM guarantee with $17MM salaries in each year and an opt-out after the first season. He suffered a lat strain in February and didn’t make it back to a big league mound until late June. He posted a 6.68 earned run average in seven starts and got moved to the bullpen. After two relief outings, he landed on the IL.

Montas will certainly forego his opt-out chance and keep that $17MM salary on the Mets’ books for next year. For their $34MM investment, they have so far received 38 2/3 innings with a 6.28 ERA. There’s a chance he returns late in 2026 but only for a few outings even in a best-case scenario.

The news doesn’t impact 2025. As mentioned, Montas had already been bumped to the bullpen even before being ruled out for the rest of the year. This means the club won’t be planning on him contributing in 2026 either. Thankfully, next year’s on-paper rotation looks a lot like the current group. Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes and David Peterson will all be back next year. Senga’s deal has a post-2025 opt-out but it’s conditional on him pitching 400 innings over the 2023-25 seasons. Since he missed most of last year, he’s only at 280 1/3 and won’t vest that opt-out.

In addition to those four, the Mets are turning to prospects Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong late this year. Either or both could be candidates for next year’s rotation. The same is true of Brandon Sproat, who is in Triple-A. Tylor Megill is currently on the IL but can be retained for 2026 via arbitration. Christian Scott has UCL surgery late in 2024 and could be back in the mix next year.

While it’s not ideal for the Mets to be paying $17MM plus taxes to a pitcher who is out of action, he had seemingly fallen out of their plans regardless. They have plenty of other pitchers and one of the top payrolls in the league, so they can absorb this hit better than most.

For Montas personally, he will eventually return to the open market ahead of the 2027 season, which will be his age-34 campaign. He missed most of 2023 recovering from shoulder surgery, so he won’t have a lot of momentum going into that return to free agency. He will be coming off a four-year stretch from 2023 to 2026 where he was only healthy in 2024 and had a 4.84 ERA that year.

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Francisco Alvarez Suffers Finger Fracture, Still Hopes To Return This Year

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Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez was hit by a pitch on his left pinky finger last night. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports that the backstop suffered a break in that finger but still hopes to be able to play in the majors later this year.

Alvarez was already in a challenging situation. He suffered a sprain of his right thumb a little over a week ago. Shortly after suffering that injury, it was reported that he will need surgery to correct it at some point. However, the recovery time from that surgery is six to seven weeks, which would carry well into October if he had it now. Alvarez and the Mets decided to delay the procedure until the offseason as he attempts to rest it enough to play through it.

He began that experiment by starting a rehab assignment last night. He doubled in his first plate appearance, grounded out in the second and then was hit by a pitch in the third. He was removed for a pinch runner and it now appears that he suffered a fracture.

Despite the break, Alvarez evidently feels he can get back on the field. Perhaps that is possible but it’s anyone’s guess what kind of production he can muster with a sprained thumb on his right hand and a fractured pinky on the other hand. He could perhaps heal up a bit but there’s only a month left in the regular season.

It perhaps helps that the club has cracked off three straight victories while the Reds have lost three in a row. That gives the Mets a cushion of 4.5 games and greatly increases their chances of making the playoffs. Instead of rushing Alvarez back for a playoff chase, perhaps they can pump the brakes a bit and focus on getting him healthy for the playoffs.

It’s a tough spot but it’s understandable why the Mets and Alvarez are taking this path. He has a .265/.349/.438 batting line and 125 wRC+ this year, despite an early-season slump which got him sent down to the minors for a little while. With him on the shelf, the Mets are left with Luis Torrens and Hayden Senger as their healthy catchers. Torrens is hitting .218/.282/.320 this year while Senger’s line is .180/.227/.197.

The glovework can be debated but Alvarez clearly has the greatest ability to make a difference with his bat. Perhaps the injuries will be too much of an impediment for him to make a short-term impact but there’s little harm in trying. Even if he doesn’t have the thumb surgery until the season is done, he could still be recovered in time to have a normal spring training in preparation for 2026.

Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images

Latest On Astros’ Rotation

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The Astros are apparently trying to shake things up in their rotation. Manager Joe Espada tells reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Lance McCullers Jr. will be moving to the bullpen. The skipper emphasized that it would be a “short-term” move in order to “just change things up.”

McCullers has returned to the big leagues this year after two completely lost seasons. He didn’t pitch at all in 2023 or 2024 due to issues with his throwing arm. In 2023, he had surgery to repair his flexor tendon and remove bone spurs from his elbow. The recovery period dragged on longer than expected, preventing him from pitching in 2024. Since a forearm injury limited him to just eight starts in 2022, he had thrown very little over the previous three years.

His return in 2025 has not been triumphant. Since being reinstated from the injured list in early May, he has twice gone back on the IL, once due to a right foot sprain and once due to a blister. Around those IL trips, he has a 6.89 ERA over 12 starts. He has walked 14.3% of batters faced this year. He returned from the blister issue last week and made one start, walking five batters in four innings.

Despite the challenges the Astros have faced with their pitching this year, they are atop the American League West. However, their lead over the Mariners is just a game and a half. If the Mariners catch up, the Astros are only 4.5 games ahead of the Royals, the top American League team not in playoff position. Though the Astros are in a decent spot, they still have to win games for another month to crack the postseason.

It seems they have decided that McCullers needs a shift. He has plenty of good numbers on his track record but hasn’t gotten into a good groove this year. He has also thrown 48 1/3 major league innings this year, surpassing his total for the previous three years combined. Getting him a reset in the bullpen will naturally put a check on his workload.

Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown give the Astros a strong one-two in the rotation, though the remaining spots are more in flux. Cristian Javier has a strong track record but also just returned from a lengthy injury layoff. His first three starts since coming back have resulted in a 5.40 ERA and a 13% walk rate. Spencer Arrighetti has also been limited by injury, having made just six starts with a 6.21 ERA, 17.6% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate. Jason Alexander has a 2.91 ERA over his past six starts but his larger track record is that of a journeyman depth swingman.

The struggles from the rotation also have domino effects for the relievers. The bullpen has recently lost Josh Hader, Bennett Sousa and John Rooney to the injured list. With the relief corps weakened, it’s obviously not ideal for the rotation to be struggling at the same time.

There could be another X-factor over the horizon. In another piece at The Athletic, Rome notes that Luis Garcia could be reinstated from the injured list soon. Garcia is in a somewhat similar position to McCullers. He had Tommy John surgery back in May of 2023. He was expected to rejoin the club last year but renewed elbow soreness has repeatedly set him back, so that it’s now been well over two years since his last major league game.

Rome provides some details on the setbacks, noting that Garcia shortened his arm slot in an attempt to work around the soreness. However, that new motion prevented from getting back his previous velocity. Eventually, in time, he has been successfully able to return to his previous arm slot as he has become healthier and gotten farther away from his surgery.

He has pitched 30 innings across nine rehab outings in recent weeks. He has a 3.30 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate in those. In his last outing, he tossed six Triple-A innings, allowing one run while striking out five opponents.

He has only averaged 91.4 miles per hour at the Triple-A level this year. In his previous big league work, he was mostly in the 93-94 mph range. That’s a bit concerning but both Garcia and pitching coach Josh Miller expressed confidence that he would continue to push that up over time.

Garcia seems likely to be reinstated soon. His first rehab outing was on July 7th. A rehab assignment for a pitcher normally has a 30-day maximum but exceptions can be made for one coming back from UCL surgery. A ten-day extension can be granted as many as three times, leading to a total rehab span of 60 days.

Even with that wider window, Garcia would need to be reinstated in early September. Rosters expand September 1st and the Astros don’t have a starter listed for that date. Alexander started today with Javier, Arrighetti and Brown scheduled for the next three games. They could have Valdez pitch on the 1st on regular rest, though Rome notes that McCullers and Garcia are both options for that start. McCullers taking the ball that day would naturally depend upon if he is used as a reliever in the prior days.

Prior to his surgery, Garcia tossed 352 big league innings with a 3.61 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Getting that kind of production in the rotation would obviously be great but the struggles of McCullers and Javier show that it’s not always easy to just come back and succeed after a lengthy rehab period.

Further down the line, assuming the Astros make the playoffs, they will have to decide on who makes playoff starts for them. Brown and Valdez are obviously the first two guys but picking a third or a fourth starter out of this group will likely come down to who pitches the best in the next few weeks.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

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