Tigers Notes: Torkelson, Draft, Pitching Prospects
The Tigers will be on the clock with the top pick in the shortened, five-round MLB draft tomorrow night, and although general manager Al Avila unsurprisingly declined to tip his hand in speaking with reporters today, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News writes that Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson is expected to be the pick “unless something bizarre occurs.” Torkelson has long been regarded as a potential, if not likely No. 1 overall pick, having put together an outrageous NCAA career at the plate (.337/.463/.729) while wowing scouts with elite power, a keen eye at the plate and a potentially strong hit tool. Detroit has the second-largest bonus pool in this year’s draft, due largely to the No. 1 overall selection’s $8.415MM slot value.
Even beyond the selections the Tigers will make over the next two days, though, Avila feels the club will be well-positioned to lure in undrafted amateurs, Henning’s colleague Chris McCosky writes. Bonuses for undrafted players are capped at just $20K, so the Tigers won’t be able outbid other teams, but Avila touts the manner in which his organization has embraced “modern technology” as both an advantage for luring undrafted players and preparing for the draft in general. The club’s bolstered analytics department proved vital for draft preparation in the absence of conventional scouting opportunities, Avila says. He adds that the team’s recruiting message and the clear opportunities at the MLB level both work in their favor as well.
This marks the second time in three years that the Tigers have landed the No. 1 overall selection. In 2018, the top pick led Detroit to former Auburn ace Casey Mize, who now joins fellow Tigers farmhands Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal among baseball’s premier pitching prospects. Each had been ticketed for Triple-A, but Avila acknowledges that the likely lack of a minor league season has at least led to discussion about some of the organization’s top pitching prospects beginning to log innings at the MLB level in 2020.
Avila cautions that “no final decision” has been made and call the debate a “work in progress.” The Tigers, of course, still view their rebuild as an ongoing process and likely won’t be inclined to rush any of their prized arms to the Majors. The determination surely depends on what other developmental opportunities present themselves, too. While virtually everyone expects the minor league season to be canceled, there’s been talk of a potentially expanded Arizona Fall League format and the advent of a Florida Fall League, which could give high-end prospects like Mize, Manning and Skubal some much-needed developmental reps against similarly touted minor league hitters.
MLBPA To Propose 89-Game Schedule In Latest Offer To MLB
The Major League Baseball Players Association is preparing to send a counter-proposal to the league which will call for 89 games at prorated salaries and expanded playoffs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter thread). It’s 25 fewer games than the 114-game proposal the union last sent and 13 games more than MLB’s 76-game proposal on Monday. Of course, the league’s proposal only guaranteed players 50 percent of their prorated salaries — plus another 25 percent should a 16-team postseason be played to completion. As such, it’s hard to envision this deal being accepted — or even considered — by the league.
The new number of games does bring the midpoint between the two proposals to 82 games — the originally proposed number by the league. And ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the union proposal contains expanded 16-team playoffs in both 2020 and 2021, which would surely hold appeal to ownership. The Athletic’s Evan Drellich adds that the players’ share of the playoff pool would be set at $50MM in the event that attendance is either limited or prohibited. Should fans be able to attend — unlikely in 2020 but plausible in 2021 — the players’ share would be dependent on gate revenue, as usual.
The players are also willing to commit to “broadcast enhancements” in the regular season and the playoffs, per Rogers, which would presumably lead to players regularly being mic’ed up to interact with the broadcast team during play. They’d also concede that non-high-risk players opting not to play during the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g. players who have family members at higher risk) would not receive salary or service time. High-risk players could opt not to play and still receive both.
Tonight’s proposal also contains several new elements. Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller tweets that an All-Star Game and Home Run Derby could be held after the World Series concludes — which could create further revenue for teams. The Wall Street Journal’s Jared Diamond, meanwhile, tweets that the union proposal seeks to establish a joint, $5MM fund with the league to support minor league players and drive social justice initiatives.
Still, the biggest issue hasn’t been the potential for expanded postseason play or even the overall number of games, but rather the disagreement on player salary. The union has steadfastly insisted upon prorated salaries, while ownership has continued to push the notion that additional pay cuts are necessary (while making brash claims about team profitability). Ownership has also staunchly refused to consider playing beyond the end of October, and that’s sure to be another roadblock in this latest proposal; Rogers reports that the proposal calls for the regular season to begin on July 10 and run through Oct. 11. As Diamond observes, that would ensure that MLB playoffs don’t go up against the NBA playoffs, which are set to conclude on Oct. 12.
If the sides cannot come to an agreement on salary terms, it seems increasingly likely that commissioner Rob Manfred will implement a roughly 50-game season with prorated salaries. All of the reported components of tonight’s proposal may create optimism that an actual negotiation could finally commence, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman gives plenty of reason for caution (Twitter link). One ownership source reacted to Heyman: “We’re nowhere.”
Matt Harvey Has Received KBO, NPB Interest
June 9: Harvey has also drawn interest from teams in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
June 5: Former Mets ace Matt Harvey recently made known that he’s throwing regular bullpen sessions and hoping for another shot in the Majors, but the right-hander has also received interest from at least one club in the Korea Baseball Organization, MLBTR has confirmed. SBS in South Korea reported yesterday that Harvey had received interest and is at least open to the idea.
That said, there are some notable caveats to consider. Harvey does not appear to have received an offer, and the team in question is not focused solely on Harvey, a source tells MLBTR. It’s possible that the club could ultimately extend an offer to another pitcher of interest. KBO teams are capped at the number of foreign players they’re allowed to roster at the same time, so it’s not likely that the interested team would pursue multiple arms.
Furthermore, there are still some real obstacles with regard to actually getting a foreign pitcher up to speed with a KBO club. Daniel Kim of South Korea’s MBC recently tweeted that teams believe it could take four to six weeks to get a new player into game action. Beyond the actual negotiation and paperwork, the incoming player would need to go into a mandatory two-week quarantine upon arriving in South Korea. Pitchers, in particular, would then need some time to build up to game readiness. Just as many signed pitchers throughout MLB feel they’ll need a minimum three-week ramp-up period before returning to play, Harvey or any other pitcher would need a few weeks to build up his pitch counts.
It’s hard not to wonder what it’d be like to see a player who was at one time such a high-profile star make his way over to the KBO. There’d be some risks for Harvey, as a poor showing in the KBO would only further limit his appeal to MLB teams. Still, given the likely absence of a minor league season in 2020, it’s not as though he can hope for the opportunity to go prove himself in a Triple-A setting. Harvey’s most direct path back to the Majors right now is to hope that a team would be willing to carry him on an expanded roster/taxi squad, but his ugly 2019 numbers might make that a difficult path to achieve. A strong showing in the KBO could serve as a half-season audition for Major League clubs in 2021 and/or lead to 2021 offers in the KBO or Japan’s NPB.
Harvey, 31, struggled with the Angels in 2019 when he totaled 59 2/3 innings with a 7.09 ERA, 5.9 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9. He had a solid run in Cincinnati following a trade in 2018, though, pitching to a 4.50 ERA and 4.33 FIP in 24 starts. By all accounts, he fit in well in the Reds’ clubhouse, and Harvey himself spoke to the New York Post’s Dan Martin last month about the manner in which he feels he’s grown since his early years with the Mets. “I’ve grown up and matured on and off the field,” Harvey told Martin. “There are a lot of things I’d do differently, but I don’t like to live with regret.”
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams or, if you prefer, follow along in the embedded frame below:
DeWitt Claims Baseball Industry “Isn’t Very Profitable”
Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. offered some eyebrow-raising comments in an interview with Frank Cusumano of 590 The Fan (audio link). You’ll want to listen to the entire chat for yourself, but we’ll cover some pertinent elements here — in particular, his highly questionable claim that the baseball industry isn’t even a terribly profitable one.
DeWitt says he believes there will be a 2020 season and that the game will be fine in the long haul. Baseball has “always survived and come back stronger,” he says.
But that doesn’t mean it’ll come about through a mutually satisfactory bargaining process. Indeed, DeWitt seemed less than optimistic that the sides will end up agreeing to terms.
“At some point we do have the right to implement a season and pay full salaries and the only way it makes sense is with a shorter season,” he said. “And that’s I think the way it’ll turn out.”
DeWitt insists that the owners want to make the season as long as possible. At the same time, he rejected the idea of pushing play outside the normal bounds of late October/early November. He cited concerns of a second COVID-19 wave and called it “a little bit of a ridiculous proposal” to imagine “Christmas shopping while you’re watching the World Series on television.”
The Cards’ chairman left little doubt as to where the league sees its leverage. “We understand that if we implement a season — a shorter season — that they will get full pay but in total they’ll make less money,” he said. “So it really doesn’t make a lot of sense for them to continue to hold out.”
That’s all interesting enough, but DeWitt’s most notable comments came when he attempted an explanation of the owners’ overarching position that players should share in the downside of a limited 2020 campaign. The host posed the question why players should subsidize losses even when their salaries have declined on average while the game raked in record revenues over the past two seasons.
DeWitt rejected the idea that declining salaries were tied to more profits: “don’t think for a minute that the reduced payroll added money in the pockets of the owners because it didn’t.” Citing the growth of non-player personnel — from 240 to 400 in the past six years, he says — DeWitt claims “It’s a bit of a zero-sum game” because “a lot more is put into training, conditioning, promotional work, front office, analytics.”
One might respond that what the teams are really doing with those alternative investments — given the areas of emphasis DeWitt cited — is looking for more efficient ways to spend their roster-related funds. And to boost the profitability of the existing product.
But DeWitt insists, against all reason, that “The industry isn’t very profitable, to be quite honest.” It’s rather a remarkable quote.
Depending upon how one draws the lines around the multi-faceted business efforts tied to the game, it may be possible to narrowly support such a claim. But surely, when you pull in broader efforts — television, retail, real estate — someone is making money in the industry?
DeWitt even rejects that notion in large part. He referenced the Cardinals’ massive Ballpark Village effort — the second phase of which the team values at $260MM. It’s an opportunity to benefit St. Louis, he says, but for the Cardinals? Per DeWitt, “we don’t view as a great profit opportunity.”
DeWitt went on to suggest that it’s the players’ own historic preference for market-based salaries that is gumming up the efforts to resume play. Other sports are “aligned with the players,” says DeWitt, because “the more the revenue the more the players get based on a formula.” It’s interesting that this viewpoint arose at this particular moment, during a downturn. And it’s not entirely clear why such a sophisticated businessperson suddenly feels he and his fellow owners aren’t able to adequately consider costs and revenues when bidding on talent.
DeWitt notes that there’s “been a little bit of distrust” when it comes to the players believing ownership’s sharing of financial information. Frankly, it’s not hard to see why. Players have indeed shared in the benefits over the years, as DeWitt notes, even as franchise values have soared. Even though many of the league’s main profit-generating efforts have occurred somewhat outside the scope of the arena the players can access directly, they’ve no doubt been able to secure greater paydays as a result. But it’s inconceivable that wealthy investors would continue to tie up billions of dollars into a business that doesn’t throw off profits. Arguing otherwise won’t help rebuild that missing trust.
American League Future Salary Guarantees
In recent weeks, we have gone through the future payroll obligations of every American League team. These contract commitments were locked in before the terms “coronavirus” and “covid” were permanently embedded in the general public’s lexicon. You can find every individual team’s player-by-player breakdown at this link.
We’ll soon begin marching through the N.L. sides and then undertake some further examination of the overall numbers. First, let’s pause to put the A.L. numbers in context. The chart below orders the American League teams by total post-2020 salary obligations.
(Click here to view the chart at full size.)
Ryan O’Rourke Announces Retirement
Former MLB southpaw Ryan O’Rourke announced last night on Twitter that he’s hanging up his spikes. MLBTR wishes him the best in his future endeavors.
O’Rourke made two appearances last year with the Mets before he was cut loose. He caught on with the Twins on a mid-season minors deal but never got the call to the MLB roster.
Most of O’Rourke’s experience at the highest level of the game came in his 2015-16 stint with the Twins. Over 47 frames in 54 appearances, he worked to a 4.98 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9.
O’Rourke, a Massachusetts native and former 13th round pick, did find quite a bit of success at the Triple-A level. Through an even one hundred appearances over five campaigns, he posted a cumulative 3.29 ERA.
Angels’ Future Payroll Features 4 High-Dollar Players
2020 salary terms still need to be hammered out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.
Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.
We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Next up is the Angels:
(click to expand/view detail list)
Dipoto On Mariners’ Plans For Top Prospects
The Mariners never expected to contend in 2020, but a lost or truncated season stands to impact the club’s developmental timeline. GM Jerry Dipoto discussed his organization’s approach, especially with regard to its top prospects, with Larry Stone of the Seattle Times.
Dipoto acknowledged the tightrope the team is likely to encounter with exciting young talents such as Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic. On the one hand, the original plan was for such players to open the year “in developmental mode” in the upper minors. And while it went unsaid, it stands to reason that the Seattle front office isn’t anxious to burn up service time unnecessarily.
On the other hand, Dipoto is cognizant of the need to squeeze in as much development as possible. These guys need reps and seem unlikely to find them at Triple-A in 2020. Getting prospects the requisite playing experience “becomes a little more challenging when there may not be a league for them to go play in,” Dipoto explains.
“We are very committed to the idea that their development is more important to us than virtually anything else we’re going to do this year,” says Dipoto. “We’re still committed to that idea, and this will just be a delicate balance for not trying to rush them, but make sure they get the competition reps to the best of our ability.”
It sounds as if it’s still up in the air whether and for how long we might get a glimpse of these highly regarded youngsters. That’s all presuming there’s a season at all, of course.
The Seattle brass is clearly pessimistic about anything like a typical minor-league season. It’s not hard to see why, given the stumbling effort to get a MLB campaign underway. But Dipoto says there is some hope that many minor-leaguers will get some sort of competitive action. He says he’s “optimistic” that minor-league action of some kind will be possible later in the year.
More broadly, Dipoto says, the club is bullish on the organization’s outlook. The Mariners’ slate of future financial commitments isn’t onerous; most of it is promised to younger players. As a whole, the current MLB roster is quite youthful, and there’s hope that some new stars are just on the horizon. It’ll certainly be fun to watch if the M’s decide to throw some of that talent into the bigs in an offbeat 2020 campaign.
76ers, Devils Owners Eyeing Mets
Josh Harris and David Blitzer are “in the early stages” of compiling a bid for the Mets, Scott Soshnick of Variety reports. They join a still-amorphous A-Rod/J.Lo bidding group among known pursuers of the club.
There’s little question that Harris and Blitzer have ample experience in purchasing and running major sports franchises. The former is principal owner of the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers and NHL’s New Jersey Devils. The latter also has ownership stakes in those franchises. Both are shareholders in the Premier League side Crystal Palace F.C. There’s baseball experience, too: Blitzer co-owns the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate (the Scranton Wilkes-Barre RailRiders), an interest he’d likely have to divest to swing this deal.
The pair of potential Mets owners surely aren’t looking only for a fun place to park their capital. Both acquired their bankroll through their work at famed private equity shops (Apollo Global Management and Blackstone, respectively). And they’ve made out like bandits through their other sports-related investments.
New bidders generally represent good news for the current ownership group, led by Fred and Jeff Wilpon. Then again, it seems notable that this particular slate of candidates is only just emerging. Harris and Blitzer may well smell an opportunity.
It remains hard to imagine that the Wilpons will be able to wrangle the $2B asking price they’ve reportedly placed on the franchise — unless, perhaps, they waver on their desire to hang on to the SNY network. No doubt profit-minded investors will want the television revenue opportunity to be included in the package.