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Ender Inciarte Begins Rehab Assignment

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Injured Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte is officially on the path back to the majors. He launched a rehab assignment today, per a club announcement.

Inciarte will start things off with the club’s High-A affiliate. The Braves will surely exercise some caution in ramping him up. Back injuries can linger, as has already occurred in this particular case.

So long as Inciarte’s back doesn’t start barking again, he ought to move fairly swiftly back up the chain. The Braves ought to have at least a few weeks to see how Inciarte looks and fits on the MLB roster before making final deadline decisions.

As I argued about a month back, the left-handed-hitting center fielder still figures to be a useful piece for the Atlanta roster now and into the future. It’s hard to see Inciarte re-taking his everyday role, but he’d still fill a significant niche if he can get the bat going upon his return.

That said, his ultimately activation will still pose tough roster and playing-time questions. Austin Riley is still slugging, though his on-base numbers are sagging, while reserves Johan Camargo, Charlie Culberson, and Matt Joyce are all hitting quite well. It’s a good problem to have for the division-leading Braves.

The Decline Of Jake Arrieta

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Right-hander Jake Arrieta entered free agency in winter 2017 after a four-year run as one of the majors’ premier starters. Arrieta was toiling as a back-end starter with the Orioles just a few years before, but he turned his fortunes around with the Cubs. Not only was he part of the Cubs’ World Series drought-breaking team in 2016, but he won the 2015 NL Cy Young Award and posted a 2.73 ERA/3.16 FIP with 8.89 K/9 and 2.73 BB/9 in 803 innings and 128 starts in a Chicago uniform.

If Arrieta had his druthers, he likely would have stayed on the North Side of Chicago, where he became a beloved figure. However, the Cubs’ Theo Epstein-led front office wasn’t willing to pony up for the Scott Boras client when he hit free agency. The Cubs weren’t alone in that regard. There were reports Arrieta had designs on a $200MM-plus contract when he reached the open market, but after upward of four months in free agency, he settled for the Phillies’ three-year, $75MM guarantee in March 2018. While the Phillies hoped they were landing a front-line starter at something of a discounted cost, they’ve essentially gotten mediocrity to this point.

Arrieta continued his years-long run of durability in 2018, notching 31 starts and 172 2/3 frames, though the results weren’t great. He logged a 3.96 ERA/4.26 ERA with 7.19 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 51.6 percent groundball rate. Respectable numbers? Absolutely. Worth ace-caliber pay? No.

Now 33 years old, Arrieta’s amid his worst season since 2013, when the Cubs pulled him from the Orioles’ scrapheap. He has pitched to a 4.43 ERA/5.14 FIP with 7.03 K/9, 3.47 BB/9 and a 52 percent grounder mark. Despite his continued penchant for inducing grounders, Arrieta has degenerated into a back-end starter. As a result, there’s basically no chance he’ll vacate the remainder of his contract after the season. Arrieta’s pact gives him the right to opt out of his $20MM salary for 2020 in favor of free agency. On the other hand, the Phillies could void his opt-out to pay him $40MM from 2021-22. It appears you can forget that on both counts, though.

Beyond simply looking at Arrieta’s basic numbers, leaks in his foundation are manifest. His average fastball velocity is hovering in the high-92 mph range for the third straight season, down from 94-95 in his best days. As noted before, he’s striking out fewer batters and walking more. Home runs have also become a major problem for Arrieta, who yielded long balls on 10.9 percent of flies from 2013-18 but is up to 21.4 percent in that category this year. Among qualified starters, only the Cubs’ Yu Darvish (whom they chose over Arrieta) and the Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson have allowed more HRs per fly ball.

Looking at Arrieta’s bloated HR rate, it’s no surprise he’s fooling fewer hitters than he did during his peak. Arrieta’s 7.4 percent swinging-strike rate is his worst since 2010, when he debuted in the bigs, while his 27 percent chase rate is his lowest ever. When hitters have gone after Arrieta’s pitches, they’ve made much more impactful contact than before, evidenced by a hard-hit rate (37.9 percent) that easily ranks as the highest of his career. And it hasn’t been a matter of bad luck for Arrieta, whose expected weighted on-base average against (.338) is almost identical to his xwOBA (.337), according to Statcast.

While searching for further causes for Arrieta’s decline, it’s obvious a change in pitch usage has played a role. In 2015, when Arrieta won his sole Cy Young, he fired sinkers at a 33 percent rate, complementing those with sliders (29 percent), four-seamers (18), curveballs (15) and changeups (5). Those pitches all yielded good to dominant results – including against left-handed batters, who posted a dreadful .205 wOBA against him. Nowadays, though, Arrieta’s tossing his sinker 54 percent of the time and his change at roughly 17 percent, with his slider (15) and curve (12) next. For all intents and purposes, he has scrapped his four-seamer. Arrieta’s oft-used sinker and slider have been the main the sources of his problems in 2019, according to Statcast, which credits hitters with a .373 wOBA/.372 xwOBA against the former pitch and a .413/.413 line versus the latter. And lefties – whom Arrieta once stifled – have smashed him for a .384 wOBA.

Including his 2019 performance, the Phillies have gotten an OK starter in Arrieta – not the front-line righty they wanted when they signed him. His presence couldn’t help the club to the playoffs last year and doesn’t look as if it’ll be a key reason if the Phillies make it this season. Considering that, it appears the two sides will be tied together through 2020.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Blue Jays’ Potential Outfield Savior

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This has been anything but a productive season for the Blue Jays’ outfield, which ranks at the absolute bottom of the majors in fWAR (minus-1.0) and second last in wRC+ (75). Center fielder Randal Grichuk has fallen well short of expectations after signing a five-year, $52MM extension in early April, while neither corner outfielders Teoscar Hernandez nor Billy McKinney have come close to replicating above-average offensive showings from 2018. But Toronto’s outfield does have a saving grace in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who – two-plus years after joining the franchise – is now delivering on the considerable hype he garnered as a prospect.

Gurriel signed with the Blue Jays out of Cuba in November 2016, ending a months-long derby in free agency which saw several teams court him. He ultimately accepted a seven-year, $22MM offer from the Blue Jays, who hardly broke the bank for his services. Had Gurriel failed in Toronto, it wouldn’t have done much damage to the team’s books. Had he succeeded, on the other hand, Toronto would have had a steal on its hands. It now looks like a case of the latter.

Gurriel debuted with the Blue Jays last year and showed off legitimate offensive promise, slashing .281/.309/.446 (103 wRC+) with 11 home runs in 263 plate appearances. He did amass 59 strikeouts against just nine walks, though, while drawing atrocious defensive grades in the middle infield. Gurriel totaled minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in almost 550 innings divided between shortstop and second base.

Despite his infield woes a year ago, Gurriel opened 2019 as Toronto’s top option at second base. It didn’t last long, though. The team optioned Gurriel to Triple-A Buffalo in mid-April, in part because he wasn’t doing much at the plate, but has reaped the rewards since then.

The Blue Jays had Gurriel work in the grass during his minor league demotion and now appear to have an outfield cornerstone in their midst. When the Blue Jays sent the 25-year-old down, he owned a meager .175/.250/.275 line in 29 at-bats. Two and a half months later, he has teed off on major league pitching to the tune of a .318/.366/.642 line with 14 home runs in 191 plate appearances. Among major league hitters who have accrued at least 190 trips to the plate, Gurriel’s 163 wRC+ ranks seventh. On the other side, both DRS and UZR have graded him as a scratch defender in left field since he returned from Buffalo.

To this point, the athletic Gurriel seems cut out for his new position, but how sustainable is his offensive outburst? Well, his 25.1 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate aren’t particularly promising, and he sports a .365 batting average on balls in play that won’t hold. He’s also making far less contact and swinging and missing more than he did a year ago. That said, encouraging signs abound. Gurriel may not be making as much contact as he did in 2018, but his hard-hit rate has risen almost 14 percent since then, according to FanGraphs. A drastic increase in fly ball rate, a four-degree rise in launch angle and a noticeable drop in grounders further help explain his power uptick.

Gurriel’s current weighted on-base average, .413, ranks in the top 4 percent of the majors, per Statcast. That’s probably not sustainable, though other indicators show Toronto has a real building block on its hands. The right-handed Gurriel ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected batting average (61st percentile), average exit velocity (65th percentile), expected wOBA (75th percentile), hard-hit percentage (87th percentage) and expected slugging percentage (93rd percentile). Gurriel’s .361 xwOBA sandwiches him between the likes of Charlie Blackmon and Francisco Lindor, among a slew of other familiar names. It helps that Gurriel hasn’t been vulnerable against lefty or right pitchers, whom he has crushed to varying degrees, or particular offerings. Gurriel has posted an xwOBA ranging between .356 and .477 against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches, says Statcast.

Back when Toronto signed Gurriel, the hope for the team was that he’d evolve into an indispensable piece of its infield. It now looks as though he’s turning into an integral part of the Blue Jays’ outfield, which no doubt stands as a major victory – especially with young second baseman Cavan Biggio and shortstop prospect Bo Bichette in the mix. With Gurriel, Biggio, Bichette and budding third base star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in line to comprise almost half of Toronto’s attack for the long haul, an enviable offensive core looks to be taking shape up north.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs Place Tony Barnette On Restricted List

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The Cubs announced today that righty reliever Tony Barnette has been placed on the restricted list, as Patrick Mooney of The Athletic was among those to tweet. He had been pitching at Triple-A on optional assignment.

GM Jed Hoyer says that “Tony is sort of reevaluating things with his family right now.” The veteran hurler evidently was not enthused at the prospect of continuing to work in the minors, with The Cub Reporter first on the news (Twitter link).

Barnette, 35, signed a low-cost, one-year deal that includes a club option. He has thrown the ball well at Triple-A, with a 2.31 ERA and 12:2 K/BB ratio in 11 2/3 innings. But Barnette has received only two MLB appearances this year.

While the news will seemingly leave the Cubs without a depth piece, it’ll also open a 40-man roster spot. Since Barnette is promised only $750K this year, cost considerations are of limited moment.

Red Sox Select Contract Of Trevor Kelley

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The Red Sox announced today that they will select the contract of righty Trevor Kelley in advance of tomorrow’s contest, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported. An active roster spot was opened by optioning fellow right-hander Mike Shawaryn.

The 25-year-old Kelley was a 36th-round pick in 2015 and was left unprotected from the Rule 5 draft last winter. He has generally succeeded in the minors with low home run and hefty infield fly rates. The soft-tossing sidearmer has been devastating against lefty hitters at Triple-A this year, holding them to a collective .077/.172/.115 slash. Kelley has allowed just four earned in 37 2/3 innings this year for Pawtucket, with 34 strikeouts and 12 walks.

There are a few other roster maneuvers out of Boston as well. Infielder Tzu-Wei Lin was activated from the IL and optioned. Corner utilityman Steve Pearce will remain on the shelf; his lower back issue evidently isn’t progressing as hoped, as his rehab assignment was cut off. Finally, Sam Travis is going back to Triple-A after 26th-man service in London.

Brewers Sign Drew Smyly

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The Brewers announced today that they have signed southpaw Drew Smyly to a minor-league deal. He had previously been designated for assignment and then released by the Rangers.

Smyly is due $7MM in total this year, but that cost will all be borne by the Texas organization except for any pro-rated portion of the league minimum that Smyly may command if he’s called up. It’s essentially a zero-risk roll of the dice for the Milwaukee outfit. The southpaw will jump into the club’s Triple-A rotation, per GM David Stearns (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, on Twitter).

The once-strong starter is still only thirty years of age — he just celebrated his birthday, in fact — but hasn’t turned in a healthy and effective campaign in quite some time. He was good in limited action in 2015, struggled through thirty starts in 2016, and then missed all of the ensuing two seasons.

Smyly was able to take the mound this year after a lengthy rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery. And he had his fastball back at his typical ~91mph level. But Smyly was having no success fooling big league hitters, who banged 19 home runs in his 51 1/3 innings. He carries an 8.42 ERA with a 52:34 K/BB ratio on the season.

Tyler Skaggs Passes Away At 27 Years Of Age

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Tyler Skaggs passed away today at 27 years of age, according to an announcement from the Los Angeles Angels. Tonight’s scheduled game against the Rangers has been postponed. MLBTR joins all those around the game in mourning his untimely loss.

The Angels organization issued a statement as follows:

“It is with great sorrow that we report Tyler Skaggs passed away earlier today in Texas. Tyler has, and always will be, an important part of the Angels Family. Our thoughts and prayers are with his wife Carli and his entire family during this devastating time.”

According to a press release from the Southlake Police Department (Twitter link), officers were summoned to the team hotel early this afternoon. They found Skaggs “unresponsive and he was pronounced deceased at the scene.” The department stated that, “at this time, no foul play is suspected.” Neither is suicide suspected to be the cause of death, the department later released (via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register).

Skaggs graduated from California’s Santa Monica High School. He began his professional career with the hometown Angels organization, which selected him in the first round of the 2009 MLB draft — just months after the tragic passing of Halos pitcher Nick Adenhart. Skaggs was traded to the Diamondbacks organization and made his MLB debut in Arizona in July of 2010. He was traded back to the Angels in December of 2013 and had played for the L.A. team ever since.

This season was the seventh in which Skaggs had logged innings at the game’s highest level. He was finally been on track for a fully healthy season after so many prior campaigns were marred by (or lost altogether to) injury. Skaggs took the ball on Monday, making his 96th MLB start. In 520 2/3 career innings, he pitched to a 4.41 ERA.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Designate Zach Duke

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The Reds have designated lefty Zach Duke for assignment, per a club announcement. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by righty Jimmy Herget, who’ll be in line to make his MLB debut.

Duke, 36, seemed like a nice free agent buy at a $2MM price point. He only carried a 4.15 ERA in 2018, but generally looked solid in most peripheral measures and dominated opposing lefties (.220/.283/.319).

Unfortunately, the bottom has fallen out in the veteran southpaw’s 15th MLB campaign. Duke’s typically double-digit swinging-strike rate has collapsed to 7.3% as his chase rate has plummeted to 23.5%. With hitters laying off of most everything out of the zone, Duke has fared quite poorly in the K/BB department with 18 apiece through 23 1/3 innings.

The Reds obviously ran out of hope of finding a solution, deciding instead to give a shot to the 25-year-old Herget. He was added to the 40-man over the winter but has yet to appear in the bigs. Through 37 2/3 frames this year at Triple-A, his second effort at the highest level of the minors, he’s carrying a 3.58 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9.

Giants Recall Austin Slater

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The Giants have recalled outfielder/infielder Austin Slater to make his season debut, the team announced. In a corresponding move, right-hander Dereck Rodriguez was optioned to Triple-A Sacramento for the second time this season. Slater will be the 12th different outfielder used by the Giants in 2019. Five of the previous outfield options are no longer with the organization.

Now 26 years old, Slater showed some promise when he was called up for his big league debut in 2017, hitting at a .282/.339/.402 clip with three home runs in 127 plate appearances. Over a larger sample of 227 plate appearances the following season, however, Slater’s strikeout rate spiked from 22.8 percent to 30.7 percent as his batting line dipped to .251/.333/.307. He posted characteristically strong numbers in Triple-A last year, but his struggles led him to pursue some changes to his swing mechanics in the offseason, as recently explored at McCovey Chronicles.

Within that interview Slater admitted to struggling with his new swing in Spring Training, but the results so far in 2019 have been promising. Slater has posted a .308/.436/.529 line with a dozen homers and 17 doubles in 296 plate appearances. The Pacific Coast League is a known hitters’ haven, so the numbers are surely a bit inflated, but it’s also worth noting that Slater is walking at a career-best 15.5 percent clip as well.

Perhaps most interesting with Slater is the manner in which he’s been deployed defensively in Sacramento. While he’s primarily been a corner outfielder and first baseman in recent seasons, Slater has played all three outfield positions as well as first base, second base and third base. That marks his first real exposure to third base and his first significant action at second base since playing 96 games there back in 2015. If he’s able to continue his hot hitting in the big leagues, he could be deployed all over the diamond and give manager Bruce Bochy some flexibility when making moves late in games.

The demotion for Rodriguez, 27, is the latest speed bump in what’s been a disappointing season for the righty. Rodriguez looked like a needle-in-a-haystack find for the Giants last season when he parlayed a minor league contract into a 2.81 ERA / 3.74 FIP over the course of 118 1/3 innings. The organization surely hoped that Rodriguez could be a long-term option, at least at the back of the rotation, but he’s struggled to a 5.27 ERA in 2019. Rodriguez’s walk and home-run rates have soared while his strikeout rate has simultaneously dipped. San Francisco has also tried him in the bullpen, but Rodriguez has yielded 10 runs in 15 innings out of the bullpen. Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests (via Twitter) that the plan for him is to go to Sacramento and get regular work as a starter once again.

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