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Checking In On Last Year’s Least Valuable Hitters

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Of the 278 major leaguers who racked up at least 300 plate appearances last season, FanGraphs assigned negative wins above replacement marks to 28. Most of those players are back in action this year, and with the season now a month old, we’ll focus on the 10 active major leaguers who posted the lowest fWARs in 2018. As you’ll see below, a few look to be enjoying nice rebound campaigns.

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (2018 fWAR: minus-3.1):

By now, everyone who follows baseball knows about Davis’ stark drop-off. He has devolved from one of the game’s fiercest sluggers a few years ago to an easy out nowadays. Davis was abysmal last season and has been similarly woeful across 71 plate appearances this year, evidenced by a .158/.239/.344 line and a 38 percent strikeout rate. The 33-year-old went from Sept. 14 of last season to April 15 of the current campaign without recording a hit – a record 54-AB drought. Davis has been better since he broke that skid, but that’s not saying much. The Orioles will pay him through 2037 on the $161MM contract he signed in January 2016 as an imposing offensive presence.

Dexter Fowler, OF, Cardinals (2018 fWAR: minus-1.2):

Now in the third season of a five-year, $82.5MM contract, Fowler has come back strong from an injury- and depression-marred 2018. The switch-hitting 33-year-old has reverted to his halcyon days with a .316/.419/.430 slash in 93 PA, albeit with little power (one HR, .114 ISO) and a sure-to-fall .414 batting average on balls in play. For now, though, it’s a great comeback story.

Yangervis Solarte, INF/OF, Giants (2018 fWAR: minus-1.3):

For the most part, Solarte was a decent producer with the Yankees and Padres from 2014-17. The switch hitter nosedived as a Blue Jay last year, though, which forced him to sign a minor league deal with the Giants this past offseason. While the 31-year-old did crack San Francisco’s talent-deprived roster, he hasn’t been part of the solution to this point. Thus far, Solarte has batted a career-worst .218/.271/.345 in 60 trips to the plate.

Lewis Brinson, OF, Marlins (2018 fWAR: minus-1.0):

Brinson was the centerpiece of the Marlins’ return for outfielder Christian Yelich, whom they traded to the Brewers in January 2018. At that point, Brinson was a top prospect and Yelich an underrated star. Yelich is no longer flying under the radar, having blossomed into an MVP-winning force as a Brewer, which is all the more unfortunate for the Marlins given Brinson’s lack of progress. Set to turn 25 next month, Brinson has been awful in a Miami uniform. He’s off to a .192/.244/.260 start with no homers and a 34.1 percent strikeout rate against a 2.4 percent walk mark in 82 PA this season.

Hunter Dozier, 3B/1B/OF, Royals (2018 fWAR: minus-0.8):

Dozier has seemingly morphed from one of the majors’ worst players to one of its best. The 27-year-old entered Sunday fourth in the game in wRC+ (197), fifth in fWAR (1.6) and ninth in isolated power (.363), owing to an incredible .349/.444/.699 line with seven HRs in 99 PA. Dozier’s also walking and striking out at praiseworthy clips (14.1 and 18.2 percent, respectively) and barely chasing pitches outside the strike zone. His swings have led to a .474 weighted on-base average, which sits fifth in the league. Both that and Dozier’s .373 BABIP will regress, though his .431 xwOBA hardly suggests his performance is driven by luck. The Royals just might have an offensive star on their hands in Dozier, which is what they envisioned when they drafted him eighth overall in 2013.

Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, Mariners (2018 fWAR: minus-0.8):

Healy was a terrific producer as an Athletic in 2016, his rookie season, but an unrepeatable BABIP and a low walk rate indicated his 132 wRC+ was largely the product of good fortune. Indeed, Healy’s output plummeted from 2017-18 as an Athletic and Mariner. He has come out of the gates in respectable fashion this year as a fill-in for injured third baseman Kyle Seager, though, with a .232/.302/.473 line and five HRs in 126 PA. Healy’s BABIP is just .244 – down 108 points from his rookie season – and he’s easily running career-best walk and out-of-zone swing percentages (8.7, 25.9). But his xwOBA is still a below-average .314, which lands shy of a .332 wOBA that’s not particularly menacing in its own right.

Chris Owings, INF/OF, Royals (2018 fWAR: minus-0.8):

Last season was no banner year for Owings, but that didn’t stop the Royals from guaranteeing the ex-Diamondback $3MM in free agency. The return on investment hasn’t been there so far, as the 27-year-old has stumbled to an unsightly .163/.230/.283 line with minus-0.3 fWAR in 100 trips to the plate.

Ian Desmond, OF/1B, Rockies (2018 fWAR: minus-0.7):

Desmond was effective as a National and Ranger from 2009-16, when he spent his time at shortstop and in center field. For some reason, the Rockies gave him $70MM in December 2016 to play first base. The deal didn’t work out at all over its first two years, which helped convince the Rockies to shift Desmond back to center this season. That hasn’t gone well either. After putting up minus-1.5 fWAR in Colorado from 2017-18, he’s already at minus-0.8 through 92 PA in 2019, thanks to a .198/.239/.349 line. To his credit, Desmond has greatly increased his fly balls/line drives and decreased his grounders this season, and his xwOBA (.278) is leagues better than his wOBA (.219). However, none of that is to say the 33-year-old is verging on of any kind of renaissance.

Tim Beckham, SS, Mariners (2018 fWAR: minus-0.5):

Beckham joins Dozier as another potential late-blooming former first-round pick on this list. While Beckham went first overall to the Rays in the 2008 draft, he seldom lived up to the billing with them or the Orioles from 2013-18. Beckham was downright bad in 2018, which led him to accept a cheap deal with the Mariners in the offseason. Now, he’s a .286/.359/.533 hitter with six long balls in 117 attempts. Neither Beckham’s .375 BABIP nor 27.3 percent HR-to-fly ball rate will stick, but the 29-year-old has made real strides in the plate discipline department. He’s walking at a career-high clip and swinging at far fewer out-of-zone pitches than he did in prior seasons.

James McCann, C, White Sox (2018 fWAR: minus-0.5):

Like Beckham, McCann had to say yes to a prove-it deal in the offseason after a 2018 to forget.  It’s working out so far for Chicago, which has seen the former Tiger slash .333/.382/.490 in 55 trips to the plate and earn plus marks as a defender. McCann, 28, is yet another player who’s walking more than ever and swinging less outside the zone. His .405 BABIP certainly won’t hold, but the .354 xwOBA is more than acceptable for a catcher.

AL Injury Notes: Ohtani, Yankees, Red Sox, Athletics

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The Angels’ Shohei Ohtani won’t make his season debut during their homestand from April 30-May 5, manager Brad Ausmus told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register and other reporters Sunday. The two-way star is still on the mend from the Tommy John surgery he underwent on his right elbow last October, which will keep him from pitching this season but won’t prevent him from helping the Angels’ offense. Los Angeles entered Sunday with a middle-of-the-pack offense, though designated hitters Albert Pujols and Kevan Smith have only combined for average hitting to this point relative to their position. Ohtani was far better than that as a rookie in 2018, when he slashed .288/.361/.564 with 22 home runs and 10 steals over 367 plate appearances.

  • The injury-ravaged Yankees may have to start dipping into the Double-A level to fill their roster at this rate, as a couple more of their players – infielders DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela – left Sunday’s game against the Giants with ailments. LeMahieu departed with right knee inflammation, while Urshela exited after Giants reliever Nick Vincent hit him in the left hand with an 88.5 mph pitch. Luckily for New York, X-rays came back negative in both cases, though LeMahieu will undergo an MRI on Monday (via ESPN.com, Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News). LeMahieu and Urshela have handled third base with aplomb in place of Miguel Andujar, who’s one of 13 Yankees currently on the injured list.
  • Red Sox infielders Dustin Pedroia and Eduardo Nunez are set to embark on rehab assignments, manager Alex Cora said Sunday. Meanwhile, fellow banged-up infielder Brock Holt was scratched from his Triple-A rehab game Sunday because of right shoulder soreness (links via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Pedroia landed on the IL on April 18 with yet another left knee injury, but he’s “a lot better” now, according to Cora, who announced he’s likely to play with Double-A Portland beginning May 2. Nunez, down since the 19th with a mid-back strain, will go to Triple-A Pawtucket on Monday and could be back in Boston by May 6, Cotillo writes. Holt has been on the IL since April 6 with a scratched right cornea, and there’s no word on how serious his shoulder problem is. When healthy, Pedroia, Nunez and Holt have posted pitiful production this year, which helps explain why Boston second basemen have recorded the AL’s worst fWAR (minus-0.9).
  • Athletics first baseman/outfielder Mark Canha suffered a wrist sprain Sunday and may require a stint on the IL, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Slusser notes the A’s could recall Skye Bolt or Dustin Fowler to replace Canha, who has hit .200/.377/.375 with a pair of HRs in 53 trips to the plate this year.

NL Notes: Nats’ Injuries, Mesoraco, Brewers, Nelson, Russell

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A pair of Nationals infielders are currently dealing with injuries, as the club placed Ryan Zimmerman on the 10-day injured list with plantar fasciitis in his right foot, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Meanwhile, third baseman Anthony Rendon is dealing with a contusion on his left elbow that caused him to miss four games before he returned to the lineup for Friday’s series opener versus the Padres, only to feel soreness after the game, keeping him out of action on Saturday and Sunday. Though Rendon has thus far avoided a stint on the IL, manager Dave Martinez told Mark Zuckerman of MASN (Twitter link) that the Nationals may have to “do something different” if the injury prevents him from playing again on Monday. It’s certainly not welcome news for the Nationals, who have already seen injuries to fellow infielder Trea Turner, who is still recovering from a broken finger. There’s no timetable for Zimmerman’s return, though it figures to be several weeks before he is able to return to the diamond. Since Rendon has missed six of the last seven games, it seems somewhat curious that he wasn’t placed on the injured list, a decision that has left the Nats with a thin bench for the past week. And if an IL stint is necessary, it could keep Rendon out of action for longer than necessary, a loss that the Nationals can ill afford in the midst of a tight division race.

Here’s the latest news from around the National League…

  • Despite the Mets’ recent decision to designate catcher Travis d’Arnaud for assignment, it does not appear that veteran Devin Mesoraco plans to report to Triple-A Syracuse. Mesoraco, currently on the restricted list after refusing a minor league assignment, has an “open door” to rejoin the team, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday. However, all indications are that Mesoraco will instead elect to retire, though the backstop has not taken any formal action towards that end, says Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Sans d’Arnaud, the Mets will turn to Tomas Nido to back up Wilson Ramos, and while Mesoraco remains officially part of the organization, it seems unlikely that he will return to the catching mix.
  • Brewers right-hander Jimmy Nelson will have to wait to begin his rehab assignment, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Originally scheduled to make his first start with Triple-A San Antonio on Sunday, Nelson instead returned to Houston to be with his wife for the premature birth of their twin daughters. Nelson missed all of last season after undergoing shoulder surgery in 2017 and is working towards returning to action for the Brewers this season, though his rehab assignment will have to wait for the time being, with no timetable for Nelson’s next pitching assignment.
  • With Cubs infielder Addison Russell eligible to return from his 40-game suspension as early as May 3, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score writes that the team will have to consider a reconfiguration of its infield rotation should Chicago choose to reinstate Russell. A shortstop by trade, Russell is currently blocked by Javier Baez, who has excelled at the position in 2019. Russell has not played second base in the Majors since 2015, and the keystone is currently occupied Ben Zobrist and Daniel Descalso. In an already crowded infield, the Cubs may not have room for Russell, owner of a career .704 OPS.

Orioles Claim Shawn Armstrong

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4:41pm: Per a team release, the Orioles have optioned right-handed pitcher Luis Ortiz to Triple-A Norfolk to make room for Armstrong on the active roster.

1:37pm: The Orioles have claimed right-handed pitcher Shawn Armstrong off waivers from the Mariners, per Greg Johns of MLB.com. Armstrong had been designated for assignment after the Mariners promoted Justus Sheffield. Armstrong will replace catcher Jesus Sucre on the 40-man roster. Sucre was recently designated for assignment by the Orioles. Roch Kubatko of MASN adds that Armstrong, who is out of minor league options, will be placed on Baltimore’s active roster.

For the Orioles, the addition of Armstrong essentially represents a swap for pitcher Mike Wright, who was recently designated for assignment and subsequently acquired by the Mariners in a minor trade.

Though he has struggled mightily early in 2019, Armstrong’s career numbers resemble those of a serviceable relief pitcher. He has appeared in 57 career games, striking out 56 batters in 61 2/3 innings and posting a 3.65 ERA. However, he has never appeared in more than 21 games in any season since breaking into the Major Leagues with the Indians in 2015. Walks have at times been an issue for the right-hander, having walked three batters in 3 2/3 innings this season. The 28-year-old joins an Orioles bullpen that has had great difficulty suppressing the long ball early this season. Though the O’s have given plenty of pitchers opportunities to claim a bullpen role, few have been able to provide steady production. Baltimore will look for Armstrong to solidify himself as a relief option for the rebuilding club.

Indians Option Greg Allen, Recall Jordan Luplow

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The Indians have optioned outfielder Greg Allen to Triple-A, according to Mandy Bell of MLB.com. To take Allen’s place on the active roster, the team has recalled outfielder Jordan Luplow.

It’s been an abysmal start to the season for Allen, 26, who finds himself mired in a slump to the tune of a .325 OPS, having struck out 14 times in 42 plate appearances and walking just twice. His struggles have compounded the Tribe’s outfield problem, which has lacked for production outside of Leonys Martin. It’s an unfortunate turn for Allen, who flashed potential in 91 games with the Indians last year. However, a ballclub that intends to win games cannot afford to continue giving plate appearances to a struggling young player in hopes that he breaks out of a slump. Allen will be given ample opportunity in Columbus to right himself and return to form with hopes that he can contribute to a playoff team later in the season.

The Indians will turn to Luplow in hopes that he will offer a boon to their faltering outfield. Luplow represents a right-handed option for an Indians outfield that features Martin, Jake Bauers, Tyler Naquin, and Carlos Gonzalez—all left-handed hitters. While Luplow started slow with the Major League club and was quickly optioned to the minors, he only received 17 MLB plate appearances before the demotion and has dominated Triple-A pitching since then. Though he boasts an impressive minor-league track record, he has thus far failed to put it together at the Major League level, though inconsistent playing time may in part be to blame: he has only received 207 scattered PAs between Pittsburgh and Cleveland since debuting in 2017.

Dodgers Activate Rich Hill, Place Caleb Ferguson On IL

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The Dodgers have officially activated veteran southpaw Rich Hill to make his 2019 debut, per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. To make room for Hill on the active roster, left-handed pitcher Caleb Ferguson has been placed on the 10-day injured list with an oblique injury. Hill will make his first start of the young season in Sunday’s game against the Pirates.

The injury is the latest in what has been a frustrating start to the 2019 season for Ferguson. A cursory glance at his 3.26 ERA does not tell the whole story. In fact, Ferguson has had trouble preventing home runs and walks, having conceded 8 bases no balls and 3 home runs in just 13 innings of work. Despite the similar 3.49 ERA in 2018, Ferguson enjoyed considerably more success in those two departments last season, when he allowed a more respectable 1.5 HR/9 and 2.2 BB/9, to go along with 10.8 K/9.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles will gladly welcome back the 39-year-old Hill, who has been an integral part of the club’s stellar starting rotation since he joined the club in 2016. To be sure, the Dodgers’ pitching staff has fared just fine without Hill, but he represents the latest boon to a rotation that began the season with both Hill and ace Clayton Kershaw on the shelf. Hill’s return gives the Dodgers seven realistic options to start, though it’s unclear just how his arrival will shake up the rest of the Dodgers’ starters. Kenta Maeda is certainly an option to move to the bullpen, and is probably the most likely to do so with both Ross Stripling and Hyun Jin Ryu performing well behind stalwarts Kershaw and Walker Buehler. Julio Urias, who has also enjoyed an encouraging start to the season, has already been moved to the bullpen. Surely, these are good problems to have for the first-place Dodgers, who find themselves with bountiful options in the event that another starter suffers an injury.

Diamondbacks Designate Matt Koch

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The Diamondbacks have designated right-hander Matt Koch for assignment and recalled righty Jon Duplantier from Triple-A Reno, the team announced.

Koch has been with the Diamondbacks since they acquired him from the Mets in a 2015 trade centering on Addison Reed, but the former has since struggled in the majors. Dating back to his 2016 debut, Koch owns a 4.88 ERA/5.99 FIP with 4.95 K/9, 2.23 BB/9 and a 42.2 percent groundball rate in 125 1/3 innings (36 appearances, 16 starts). Koch got off to a brutal start over 20 frames this year prior to his designation, as he logged a 9.15 ERA with 3.92 K/9, which offset an impressive walk rate (1.74).

The 28-year-old Koch has also fallen flat at the Triple-A level, where he carries a 5.79 ERA with 5.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 146 innings. And he’s out of minor league options, which further takes away appeal.

Quick Hits: Cards, Martinez, Reyes, Royals, Goodwin, Yanks, Ellsbury

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Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez, whose injured shoulder has kept him out of action this year, is “expected” to return at some point next month, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. “I feel so much better. Right now I’m 85 percent, 90 percent,” Martinez declared. “In two weeks … I think I’m going to be great. When I come back to the major leagues, I’m going to be 100 percent.” The electrifying 27-year-old has flashed front-line starter potential during his career, but thanks in part to his own wishes, he’ll work out of the Cardinals’ bullpen when he comes back. However, Martinez’s goal is to rejoin the Redbirds’ rotation after the All-Star break, Hummel relays. Meanwhile, though there’s no official timetable for fellow banged-up Cardinals righty Mike Mayers’ return, he’s aiming for July. The reliever went to the injured list April 16 with a strained lat.

More from St. Louis and a couple other big league cities…

  • Martinez and Mayers certainly aren’t dealing with embarrassing injuries, but the same isn’t true for teammate Alex Reyes. The prized 24-year-old suffered a fractured left pinky after punching a wall following his most recent Triple-A start, general manager Michael Girsch told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch and other reporters Sunday. Reyes will now head to the Cardinals’ facility in Jupiter, Fla., to continue building his arm up, though this injury likely leaves the righty at least a month from returning to St. Louis, per Goold.
  • Outfielder Brian Goodwin was on release waivers a month ago, when the Royals cut him in favor of Lucas Duda. All Goodwin has done since then is slash .333/.430/.556 in 87 plate appearances as a member of the Angels, making him one of the game’s elite hitters in the early going. The Royals could end up ruing their decision to part with Goodwin, but manager Ned Yost and GM Dayton Moore explained to Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star that they don’t regret the choice. Yost noted that Goodwin has struggled as a pinch hitter, which played a part in the Royals’ decision to release him, and observed that “it just made more sense” to have the lefty-swinging Duda and the righty-batting Frank Schwindel (who’s now in the minors) as pinch-hitting options and Terrance Gore as another bench choice. The Royals also had plenty of other outfield possibilities, notes Worthy, who points out Goodwin didn’t exactly make a case for a roster spot during an unproductive spring with KC.  “There probably wouldn’t have been a lot of at-bats for him,” said Moore, who suggested he’s happy Goodwin found a better opportunity elsewhere.
  • Injuries continue to haunt forgotten but well-compensated Yankees outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who last appeared in a game Oct. 17, 2017. Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday (via George A. King III of the New York Post) that Ellsbury is “dealing with different things,” “a number of little things that continue to pop up,” and “certainly” won’t return in the near term. The 35-year-old Ellsbury has battled a litany of health problems over the past couple seasons, including plantar fasciitis in 2019. The Yankees owe Ellsbury $21MM salaries through 2020 and can then cut the cord on him with a $5MM buyout.

Braves Acquire Jerry Blevins

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The Braves have acquired left-handed reliever Jerry Blevins from the Athletics, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. Oakland announced that it will receive cash or a player to be named later in return. Atlanta subsequently selected Blevins’ contract, optioned Wes Parsons to Triple-A Gwinnett and transferred reliever Arodys Vizcaino to the 60-day injured list.

An Athletic earlier in his career, Blevins never made it back to Oakland this year after returning to the organization on a minor league contract in the offseason. The 35-year-old instead tossed 10 2/3 innings of 1.69 ERA ball with 13.5 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 with the A’s Triple-A affiliate.

Blevins had to settle for a role in the minors after a trying 2018 as a member of the Mets, with whom he posted a 4.85 ERA, 8.65 K/9 against 4.64 BB/9, and a measly 21.8 percent groundball rate. Difficulty retiring same-handed hitters played into Blevins’ struggles last year, a season in which he declined sharply after a largely impressive run with the A’s, Nationals and Mets. From 2016-17, his first two full seasons in New York, the soft-tossing Blevins managed a stingy 2.87 ERA with 11.97 K/9, 3.86 BB/9 and a 43.3 percent grounder mark across 91 innings. He was tough on both left- and right-handed hitters in the first of those two seasons, though the latter teed off on him in 2017.

Blevins will now join an Atlanta bullpen which is in dire straits, having limped to the majors’ eighth-highest ERA (4.74) with its worst walk rate (5.87 per nine) and second-worst fWAR (minus-0.7) this season. In the Braves’ estimation, the fact that lefties Jonny Venters and Jesse Biddle are on the injured list and fellow southpaw A.J. Minter has been awful helped create a need for Blevins.

Orioles Designate Jesus Sucre, Place Alex Cobb On IL

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As part of a series of roster moves, the Orioles have designated catcher Jesus Sucre for assignment and placed right-hander Alex Cobb (lumbar strain) on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Saturday. The team also recalled Sucre’s replacement, catcher Austin Wynns, as well as righties Branden Kline and Luis Ortiz from Triple-A Norfolk, and optioned righty Jimmy Yacabonis.

Sucre made the Orioles’ season-opening roster after signing a minor league deal with the rebuilding team in the offseason, though the light-hitting 30-year-old’s production has fallen short even by his standards. Sucre batted a meager .210/.269/.242 with no home runs in 67 plate appearances prior to his designation. Defensively, while Sucre has always been adept at throwing out runners and has caught 4 of 8 would-be base thieves in 2019, he has been a bottom-of-the-barrel framer this season and has given up an AL-worst three passed balls.

As with Sucre, this season has been tough sledding for Cobb, who has struggled to live up to the four-year, $57MM commitment Baltimore’s prior regime made in him entering 2018. Not only has Cobb pitched to a dreadful 10.95 ERA/11.81 FIP and yielded an eye-popping nine home runs in a three-start, 12 1/3-inning span this season, but this is the second time a lumbar strain has sent him to the IL. The injury previously shelved the 31-year-old for two weeks.

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