Breakout Candidate: Dinelson Lamet
Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet may not be among Major League Baseball’s household names yet, but it could be only a matter of time before he joins those ranks. While Lamet hasn’t come close to preventing runs at an elite clip since he made his MLB debut in 2017, he has shown flashes that suggest a true breakout may not be out of the question.
Now 27 years old, Lamet caught on with the Padres out of the Dominican Republic in 2014. The franchise brought in Lamet, then 21, for $100K two years after a deal with the Phillies fell through. San Diego has since benefited from that fairly low-risk move.
After ascending through the minors, where he didn’t garner a significant amount of Triple-A experience, Lamet showed off a tantalizing fastball-slider mix during his first taste of MLB action three years ago. He wound up making 21 starts and tossing 114 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA/4.35 FIP ball with 10.94 K/9 and 4.25 BB/9.
The hope, of course, was that Lamet would build on his respectable first-year effort the next season. Instead, though, he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow in April 2018. The procedure cost Lamet that entire year and the majority of his last season, but he enjoyed an extremely promising showing after returning July 4.
Lamet shook off the rust with 14 starts and 73 frames of 4.07 ERA/3.91 FIP pitching. Those run prevention totals may not look sensational, but a deeper dive gives reason to believe that Lamet will continue his rise. Not only did Lamet cut his walk rate (3.7 per nine), but his strikeout rate rose to a jaw-dropping 12.95. Among 146 starters who threw at least 70 innings, Lamet ranked behind only Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale in K/9. His strikeout percentage (33.6) trailed just Cole, Sale, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Mike Clevinger. The other members of the top 10? Blake Snell, Lucas Giolito, Jacob deGrom and Robbie Ray. With the exceptions of Lamet and Ray (a solid starter in his own right), there isn’t a single pitcher there who’s not a front-line option.
Adding to the good news, Lamet was something of a Statcast hero during his abbreviated 2019. Take a look at where he ranked in these categories…
- Hard-hit rate: 69th percentile
- Expected weighted on-base average: 71st percentile
- Average exit velocity: 77th percentile
- Curve spin: 79th percentile
- Fastball spin: 81st percentile
- Average fastball velocity: 89th percentile
- Strikeout percentage: 93rd percentile
Well above average across the board. Lamet got there owing in part to an increase in velo (his average fastball reached 96.1 mph) and a slider that, according to Fangraphs’ pitch values, was among the most dominant offerings of its kind. As Ben Clemens of FanGraphs explained last August, Lamet was benefiting at the time from adding a second slider to his repertoire.
Lamet’s repertoire may have him on the cusp of busting out, though he’ll have to get the home runs under control. Granted, last season was a homer-happy year across baseball, but Lamet’s HR-to-fly ball percentage (19.7) was still bloated compared to most starters’. And that’s not going to work for someone who has induced grounders at a paltry 36.8 percent rate since he first set foot in the majors.
Aside from a need to cut down on HRs moving forward, Lamet also must show he can continue to stay healthy. That’s obviously not always easy for any hurler, let alone one with such a serious surgery in his past. But if Lamet can hold up, the Padres may have a potential breakout starter on their hands. That would be all the more welcome for a team that already has Chris Paddack fronting its rotation with MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino among its prospects getting closer to the bigs.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Phillies, J.T. Realmuto Pause Extension Talks
Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto has been an obvious extension candidate for a while, but nothing has come together yet as he nears his final season of team control. With the coronavirus pushing back the start of the season for the foreseeable future, it doesn’t appear a new Realmuto pact will materialize in the near term. The Phillies and Realmuto have hit the pause button on negotiations for the time being, general manager Matt Klentak revealed Tuesday (via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer).
As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained Tuesday, there isn’t a roster freeze or a moratorium on extensions, so teams and players aren’t prohibited from hammering out long-term agreements. On the other hand, with the start of the 2020 campaign off the table for a while, there’s a lot less urgency for the two sides to get something done. The Phillies had been prioritizing a preseason extension for Realmuto, though. Therefore, it stands to reason they’ll get back to work on one when there’s clarity regarding the date of Opening Day, if not sooner.
While Realmuto at least has a contract for this year, players from the Phillies and other teams who signed minor league deals containing opt-out clauses are facing quite a bit of uncertainty.
Klentak spoke on their statuses, saying: “We do not have clarity. There’s a possibility we will have to make some of those decisions this week.”
Philadelphia has a few established veterans who landed non-guaranteed pacts with opt-outs and were competing for big league roles before the postponement of spring training. As Lauber notes, infielders Neil Walker and Logan Forsythe and relievers Anthony Swarzak and Francisco Liriano may all exit their deals Thursday. Speculatively, however, MLB could push the deadlines back for players in those situations.
Latest On Willie Calhoun’s Recovery
The Rangers’ Willie Calhoun suffered a fractured jaw March 8, but the outfielder has made encouraging progress in the week-plus since then. Calhoun flew back to Texas with his teammates on Monday after receiving medical clearance, MLB.com TR Sullivan of MLB.com tweets. Aside from the fractured jaw, Calhoun’s not dealing with any other symptoms. He’s slated to begin light cardio activity later this week.
After taking a 95 mph fastball in the face from the Dodgers’ Julio Urias, Calhoun looked like a sure bet to open the season on the injured list. But that was before Major League Baseball shut down for an indeterminate amount of time because of the global coronavirus pandemic. It’s obvious that the longer play is halted, the better Calhoun’s chances are of logging a full season, though it’s anyone’s guess when the sport will resume or how many games the league will squeeze in this year.
A full slate from Calhoun would undoubtedly be welcome for the Rangers, who saw the former top-100 prospect turn into a solid contributor in 2019. Calhoun, 25, accrued a career-high 337 plate appearances and batted .269/.323/.524 with 21 home runs and an impressive 15.6 percent strikeout rate.
The health of Calhoun figures to affect the role of Nick Solak, also 25. Solak had been in line to fill in as the Rangers’ left fielder during Calhoun’s absence. Solak can move around the diamond, though, as he played second and third during his initial big league stint last season and lined up at all three outfield positions as a minor leaguer. And Solak certainly made a case for a larger role during his MLB debut last year, when he hit a robust .293/.393/.491 and tallied five homers in 135 trips to the plate.
Second Yankees Minor Leaguer Tests Positive For Coronavirus
5:20pm: The Yankees have confirmed the report, issuing a statement announcing that while in self-quarantine, the still-unnamed player reported “fatigue and an elevated body temperature” to team medical personnel. The player remains in quarantine, and his symptoms have begun to dissipate, per the club.
10:59am: A second, unnamed Yankees minor-leaguer has tested positive for coronavirus infection, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The prior positive test emerged two days ago.
The Yankees and the rest of the league have already halted Spring Training, of course. But this transmission is surely the result of prior interactions between the players.
Some players are still training at spring sites. MLB players have been granted permission to do so at their own election. Most minor-leaguers have been ordered home, though some — injury rehabbers and some other ad hoc cases — have remained. The Yankees had already closed their facility after the initial positive test.
Heyman writes that some players — it’s not clear which — will remain in self-quarantine and receive testing. It’s not known just how this most recent positive test came about — presumably, the player showed symptoms — or precisely what broader testing plans the Yankees have.
There’s a broader point of controversy surrounding the apparent ability of sports teams to command tests while they still aren’t widely available. The Yankees previously indicated they had only procured one test (the previous positive).
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
MLB Teams Each Pledge $1 Million To Cover Lost Wages For Park Employees During Shutdown
All 30 Major League clubs have established $1MM funds to cover the lost wages of their gameday and event staffs during the league-wide shutdown, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). MLB commissioner Rob Manfred offered the following statement on the teams’ actions (Twitter thread via Joel Sherman of the New York Post):
Over the past 48 hours, I have been approached by representatives of all 30 clubs to help assist the thousands of ballpark employees affected by the delay in the start of the Major League Baseball season. Motivated by desire to help some of the most valuable members of the baseball community, each Club has committed $1 million. The individual clubs will be announcing more details surrounding this support effort in their local communities. The timing of these announcements will vary because of the need to coordinate with state and local laws as well as collective bargaining obligations in an effort to maximize the benefits realized by each group of employees. I am proud that our clubs came together so quickly and uniformly to support these individuals who provide so much to the game we love.
It’s a nice gesture of goodwill and solidarity by all 30 teams, as thousands of ballpark employees throughout the league saw their livelihoods impacted and threatened by the absence of games being played. There are still, of course, other issues to address — namely the manner in which minor league players will be compensated during the hiatus.
As covered here earlier today, non-40-man players aren’t protected by the MLBPA and are currently set to go without their already meager salaries during the unexpected work stoppage. Some clubs — the Rays, Mets and Dodgers among them — are allotting a $400 weekly stipend through the end of the month, although that’s a temporary solution to a much larger-scale problem.
Justin Verlander Undergoes Surgery To Repair Groin Injury
The Astros announced Tuesday that right-hander Justin Verlander underwent a surgical procedure on his right groin. He’d been slowed by a lat strain earlier this month, but Verlander was also scratched from an earlier spring start due to tightness in his groin. That was deemed a precautionary measure at the time, but general manager James Click revealed today that the right-hander had a setback in rehabbing the issue.
“The hope was that physical therapy would be the proper course of action,” Click told reporters (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). “However, after a recent setback in his rehab, the medical staff recommended that a surgical procedure was necessary. The early prognosis is that Justin will be out for about six weeks.”
With the season pushed back at least eight weeks — quite likely longer than that — Verlander should have ample time to get back up to speed once players are cleared to resume training and once a firm target date for Opening Day is established.
Verlander’s health is paramount for the Astros more than ever, now that Gerrit Cole and (to a lesser extent) Wade Miley have departed via free agency. Houston’s 2020 roster is pricey enough that they’ll face luxury-tax penalties for the first time, and the front office opted to spend the limited resources afforded by owner Jim Crane to bring back catcher Martin Maldonado and reliever Joe Smith.
The hope is certainly that a returning Lance McCullers Jr. and young righty Jose Urquidy, whose stock soared in 2019, can join Verlander and Greinke in comprising a formidable top four. Offseason acquisition Austin Pruitt and holdovers like Brad Peacock, Josh James and Framber Valdez could all be in the mix for starts in the final rotation slot. Right-hander Rogelio Armenteros could eventually be in the mix, although he recently underwent surgery to have a bone spur removed from his elbow. Unlike Verlander, he’ll be sidelined for around four months, so he wouldn’t be an option to pitch until July at the earliest. Given the uncertainty regarding Opening Day, it’s anyone’s guess as to what point in the season that’ll be — or if the season will have even started.
Extension Candidates: NL East
We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote earlier today, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.
While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).
In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. Here are some names to chew on from the NL East …
Braves
We all love Freddie Freeman and so do the Braves. He’s now within two years of free agency … but he’s also already 30 years of age. Knowing how this organization operates, it’d be a bit of a surprise to see it go big to keep him around. At the same time, this might be the best window to do so.
It’s likelier that the team will look into deals with young players after scoring huge value in deals with Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies last winter. The most obvious candidate is excellent youngster Mike Soroka, but there’s an argument for fellow starter Max Fried. Both are likely Super Two arbitration qualifiers next winter, so this could be a good time to achieve value. Mike Foltynewicz has some potential appeal despite his ups and downs, but he’s already earning big arb money and is just two years from the open market, so it’s tougher to see a deal that’d make sense for both sides. Perhaps there’s a scenario where a deal with shortstop Dansby Swanson makes sense, but he may still want to wait for an offensive surge that the team won’t pay for on spec.
In terms of more creative possibilities … none of the Braves’ relievers seem particularly likely. If the team is particularly smitten with Austin Riley and/or Kyle Wright, despite some early stumbles, it could chase the upside. Among the pre-MLB players, outfielder Cristian Pache seems the likeliest (highly speculative) possibility. He’s already on the 40-man roster, unlike fellow outfielder Drew Waters and pitcher Ian Anderson.
Marlins
There are a few fairly classic extension targets in Miami. Quality third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson makes sense. Perhaps the team could make a run at backstop Jorge Alfaro if it believes in him. Both of those guys are 2+ service-class players, so they’ve got another year to wait for arbitration.
The same is true of interesting hurler Caleb Smith. Even less-experienced Miami starters could also be targeted, with Sandy Alcantara and perhaps Jordan Yamamoto representing interesting candidates.
There’s an argument to be made that the Marlins ought to consider some even bolder action. Their top position-player prospects — outfielder Monte Harrison and shortstop Jazz Chisholm — are each already on the 40-man roster, so there wouldn’t be any complications to locking them up. Risky? Sure, but the potential rewards are enormous. And they wouldn’t necessarily have to open the year on the MLB roster.
Mets
Pete Alonso stands out here. The lovable longball launcher may only be one season into his MLB career, but he has all the markings of a franchise face and community cornerstone. The team is obviously as smitten as are the fans, as it not only brought him up to open the 2019 season (rather than messing with his service time) but made him happy with a record sophomore salary.
There are some other conceivable position-player targets as well. Fellow breakout star Jeff McNeil is certainly of interest, though he’s already close to his 28th birthday and is under team control through his age-32 season. Pre-arb shortstop Amed Rosario could make sense after making strides in his second full season in the majors. The Mets obviously like J.D. Davis, though it probably makes sense to see if he keeps hitting and how the team’s needs develop with plenty of time before he’s a free agent. (Like McNeil, he’s under team control through 2024.)
There are also some candidates for new deals that are closer to free agency. It’s tough to imagine a deal with Noah Syndergaard given the ups and downs in the relationship and his sky-high ceiling; he’d surely require a monster payday to keep. But New York native Marcus Stroman seems cosy in his home city and might be amenable to a deal. As a walk-year player he’ll be seeking something like full market value. Outfielders Michael Conforto (4+ service class) and Brandon Nimmo (3+ service class) are certainly good enough players to approach. Want a bit of a wild card? How about righty Seth Lugo, who has turned into a heckuva reliever.
Nationals
The Nats’ situation is fairly simple to understand. The club has some glaringly obvious candidates, but it’s largely unknown whether it has attempted to start talks and (if so) whether it has any hopes of making a deal.
Juan Soto is the crown jewel. But he’s an exceptionally youthful superstar represented by Scott Boras. That’ll make it tough to get a deal done … especially if this eye-popping report is to be believed. Fellow outfielder Victor Robles isn’t as established or as certain, but perhaps there’s greater room there for the sides to find common ground.
Shortstop Trea Turner is the other most-obvious candidate. He’s 26 years of age and three full seasons from free agency. A high-quality all-around player who gamely battled through an injury, Turner could certainly be approached. He’s into arbitration with a big salary, though, so he has leverage. The Nats aren’t afraid to pay for quality, so it’s possible to imagine an agreement.
On the pitching front, there aren’t any rising young arms that seem primed for a deal. But with Max Scherzer two years from the open market … well, who knows? He is already 35 years of age, but perhaps the sides could line up on something that keeps the highly productive relationship going. After a challenging 2019 season, it’s likely that closer Sean Doolittle will be allowed to prove he’s still a top-flight reliever before getting his next deal, but talks can’t be ruled out.
Phillies
I don’t need to tell you the chief target for the Phils: it’s catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is now one season shy of free agency. The sides ended up in an arbitration hearing after failing to agree on a 2020 salary. While they say there aren’t any hard feelings, Realmuto — who’s 29 tomorrow — has also made clear he’s not interested in taking a team-friendly arrangement. We might’ve spent more time talking about first baseman Rhys Hoskins as a candidate, but that seems unlikely after his late-2019 swoon.
This is an organization that has proven willing to do a pre-MLB deal, having previously inked Scott Kingery. Top third base prospect Alec Bohm makes some sense, but only if the team is committed to bringing him up early (if not at the start of) the season. He doesn’t have a 40-man roster spot just yet. Top pitching prospect Adonis Medina does, but it’d be rather speculative to lock into him at this point.
What Happens To Extension Talks During The Coronavirus Hiatus?
For the time being, MLB rosters are not locked. There’s still a trickle of transactional news. Odds are, we’ll see some sort of agreement to freeze roster movement — including, presumably, an orderly process for tying up any pending decisions and then ramping back up in advance of a hopeful resumption of play. Once that’s sorted, there could be a flurry of moves before the hold goes into effect.
But really, that’s beside the point when it comes to extensions. Deals can be negotiated at any time, even if it’s necessary to wait to make them official. Even if there’s a halt to transactions for a stretch, teams and agents and players can talk about their futures.
It’s hardly an optimal time to be broadcasting a major new contract, for a variety of reasons. But we are seeing NFL dealmaking happen as if the football season will begin as normal. And it probably behooves us all to keep one eye on the future.
In the baseball context, the major free agent action was already completed — Yasiel Puig excepted. But we were right smack dab in the middle of extension season when the coronavirus crisis hit. And there was some indication that, on the heels of a robust free agent market, we were due for a varied and voluminous slate of new deals.
In some respects, it’s the close in-person proximity of Spring Training that makes extensions so prevalent. But it’s also a function of MLB’s calendar, most of the rest of which is occupied by the playing of games or execution of other business.
Under the present circumstances, there’s quite a strong case for utilizing the time off to consider longer pacts. The time pressure of the coming season has been released momentarily, but it’ll eventually ramp back up and help finalize talks. But whatever truncated second spring ultimate occurs later this year isn’t likely to represent an optimal time for long-term negotiations. Teams will be slammed with season preparations and unusual logistical demands.
If there’s to be another run of new deals, it’ll likely emerge from prior talks that continue during the present lull, even absent the ready ability to chat face-to-face. But the halt to sports also injects potentially massive uncertainty that could itself impact negotiations. Players’ 2020 salaries are already set, but they’re presumably not going to be paid out in full. Some players may be more inclined to secure their financial futures; some teams may wish to avoid long-fuse risks while looking ahead to clogged revenue streams.
No doubt the onset of the coronavirus shutdown halted many negotiations in mid-stream. Perhaps some deals were already reached in principle before the league went on ice. In all periods of uncertainty, there’s added risk and added opportunity. It will be interesting to see how players and teams approach extensions over the coming months — whether or not a moratorium on formal dealmaking forces us to wait for the outcomes.
Check Out Pro Football Rumors For NFL Offseason Updates
None of North America’s major sports leagues are currently playing games, but the NFL is in the midst of one of its biggest weeks of the year, and Pro Football Rumors is covering all the action.
The NFL’s free agency period kicked off on Monday with a series of agreements on major deals, including the Texans trading DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals, the Vikings sending Stefon Diggs to the Bills, and Amari Cooper reaching a $100MM deal with the Cowboys.
Tuesday began with Tom Brady dropping a bombshell, announcing that his time with the Patriots has come to an end. Brady’s eventual landing spot is one of the biggest NFL offseason questions still to be answered, but Pro Football Rumors is keeping tabs on every potential roster move, big and small.
If you’re suffering from hot stove rumor withdrawal and you’re an NFL fan, be sure to follow PFR (@pfrumors on Twitter) for all the latest offseason updates.