MLBTR Chat Transcript: Lindor, Clevinger, BoSox, Price, Dodgers
Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat, moderated by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk
Mike Clevinger Drawing Trade Interest
TODAY: The Dodgers continue to be “very aggressive in pursuit of” Clevinger and Lindor, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.
DEC. 19: Indians righty Mike Clevinger is drawing trade interest, per Robert Murray (Twitter link), although the team is said to have put a “crazy high” asking price on the soon-to-be 29-year-old. The Padres and Dodgers are among the clubs to have at least inquired on Clevinger, although there are quite likely others, given the sizable demand for starting pitching, the dwindling supply in free agency and Cleveland’s recent trade of Corey Kluber.
Interest in Clevinger isn’t much of a surprise. He enters his age-29 season with three years of club control remaining and a sterling 2.96 ERA with 10.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 40.6 percent ground-ball rate over the past three seasons (477 2/3 innings in total). Clevinger missed about two months with a teres major strain last year but otherwise hasn’t had a notable injury since undergoing Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.
The Indians’ front office is widely believed to be working with a slimmer budget this season than in recent years, as ownership has opted to scale back spending after reaching record payroll levels in 2017-18. That payroll preference was perhaps the primary reason that Kluber was moved — as opposed to holding onto him in hopes of receiving a better offer this summer — and it’s part of the reason that the club will at least listen to proposals on players like Clevinger and superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. But president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have repeatedly stated that they expect Lindor to be their Opening Day shortstop; Antonetti reiterated as much in an appearance on MLB Network this week (video link). And while there’s been no declaration on Clevinger’s status, he’s likely viewed as a similarly vital piece of the team’s core.
Clevinger is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM in his first trip through the arbitration process this winter, so he’s nowhere near as pricey as Kluber ($17.5MM) or Lindor ($16.7MM projected salary). And, because he’s controlled for three more years and his salary isn’t yet prohibitive (relative to Paul Dolan’s apparent spending preferences), one can imagine that it would indeed take a staggering offer to pry Clevinger from the organization’s grasp.
Elite prospects like Gavin Lux and Dustin May have been frequently mentioned in trade rumblings surrounding the Dodgers and Lindor, and it stands to reason that the Indians would have a similarly high ask to consider parting ways with Clevinger. While he may not match Lindor in pure 2020 value, he’s about 25 percent as expensive and can be controlled a year longer than Lindor. Essentially, fans hoping to see their club secure a talent the caliber of Clevinger or Lindor should make a list of the young, controllable players with whom they’d be most reluctant to part … and then expect that at least one and more likely two of said group would be at center of such a deal (in addition to some lesser prospects).
Latest On Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Market
There has been widespread interest in left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has become even more of a prized commodity since he is now the only starting pitcher remaining within the top 38 players on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents. The current field of suitors appears to consist of seven teams, as listed by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), give or take one unconfirmed team and, of course, the ever-popular “mystery team.”
Heyman’s list includes several teams who have been already linked to Ryu at earlier points this winter — the Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, and Twins. The “mystery team” could be the Braves (who are known to some level of interest in Ryu, though perhaps only peripherally), Heyman guessed, though he doesn’t mention the Cardinals, who were said to be considering Ryu two weeks ago. Since that report, however, St. Louis added another pitcher in Korean southpaw Kwang-Hyun Kim, who came at a much lower price tag than Ryu (though, obviously, without the MLB track record). With Kim in the fold, it could be that the Cards feel their rotation mix is set, and Ryu is no longer a target.
The other teams mentioned in Ryu’s market are two new faces, as Heyman writes that the Padres and “possibly [the] Phillies” could have interest. While the two clubs have yet to be connected to Ryu this offseason, it isn’t surprising that either San Diego or Philadelphia would be looking in, given how both teams have been looking to upgrade their respective rotations.
The Phils already made one big splash in signing Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract. However, Wheeler is only one addition to a pitching staff that generated 7.6 total fWAR (23rd in the majors) in 2019. Wheeler and Aaron Nola are a good top-of-the-rotation pairing, though the remaining options of Jake Arrieta and two of the Zach Eflin/Vince Velasquez/Nick Pivetta trio aren’t terribly inspiring, given how these arms all struggled last season. Ryu would be a nice addition to any staff, but he would especially help the Phillies keep pace with the other loaded rotations in the NL East.
Since the Phillies already have a projected payroll (just under $205.4MM, as per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource) that sits just barely under the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, however, it remains to be seen if the club is willing to surpass the threshold for another star player like Ryu. Philadelphia was reportedly looking to be more “opportunistic” with their future signings to avoid the tax, though the team could take the one-year hit while staying in the first level of tax penalties, which is a CBT number of less than $228MM. Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, and David Robertson all come off the books after the 2020 season, so the Phillies could duck back under the tax threshold after just one year.
The CBT isn’t a concern for the Padres, though payroll itself is an issue, as the club has reportedly been trying to deal Wil Myers‘ contract for weeks. Despite having some level of financial limitation in place, San Diego has been looking for frontline pitching for over a year, mostly on the trade front given how the Padres have so many strong minor leaguers to offer as trade chips. The Padres have also explored free agent signings, and Ryu is clearly a known quantity after facing him for so many years in a Dodgers uniform. Adding an experienced veteran like Ryu to the young staff could make the Padres more open to move other younger arms (if not the trio of Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, or Luis Patino) as part of future trades to bring salary relief, perhaps attached to Myers as sweeteners in a deal.
Giants, Tony Watson Reach New Deal
December 22: As it turns out, Watson actually didn’t exercise his player option; rather, he and the Giants negotiated a new deal that will pay him $3MM in 2020, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. He’ll still have the chance to earn $4MM worth of incentives, bringing his potential 2020 earnings to a total of $7MM.
November 2: Giants reliever Tony Watson has exercised his player option for 2020 with San Francisco, according to Kerry Crowley of Bay Area News Group (link).
Watson arrived in San Fran in 2018 via a modest two-year, heavily incentivized deal that promised him a combined $6.5MM over the first two years of the deal, with a 2020 option attached. Watson’s option for 2020 is guaranteed at $2.5MM, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today relays that Watson will have the opportunity to earn $7.5MM total in 2020 via incentives (link); At the time of the deal’s signing, it was reported that Watson had the ability to earn $14MM over two years or $21MM for three years, depending on escalators and performance bonuses.
Regardless of the particularities of his salary structure, this offseason would have likely marked an inopportune time for the 34-year-old Watson to hit the open market. 2019 marked the lefty’s first season pitching to an ERA in excess of 4.00, and he also logged some of the lowest strikeout totals (6.83 K/9) of his career in the process. Worse yet, a broken wrist ended his season prematurely in early September.
Of course, between 2013 and 2018 Watson was one of the game’s most reliable southpaw bullpen arms, recording a 2.46 ERA in 424.2 innings with the Pirates and the Dodgers. Now, the Boras client can suit up for San Francisco for one more go-around in 2020 in hopes of recapturing that old form and reentering the market again in advance of the 2021 season.
Blue Jays Showing Interest In David Price
The Blue Jays and Red Sox are discussing a deal that would send veteran starter David Price to Toronto, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. While Rosenthal is quick to note that an official move isn’t close yet, it’s nonetheless notable that Price is in play for a Blue Jays team that has made abundantly clear its desire to upgrade the starting rotation.
The progress of the teams’ negotiations will hinge on Boston’s willingness to cover some portion of the remaining three years and $96MM on Price’s contract. It’s been no secret that the Red Sox, aiming to duck beneath the luxury tax threshold for 2020, are seeking a taker for Price, Nathan Eovaldi, or both. However, the team has simultaneously expressed its disinclination to include a promising piece simply to facilitate a trade. While that would strengthen the return for Price, and likely decrease the amount of cash needed to move him, it would either detract further from the big league roster or eat into an already-thin farm system.
Furthermore, attaching a more attractive player to Price likely isn’t necessary: the Red Sox, for their part, are said to be investigating other options for Price, who has garnered interest from other teams, including the Padres, Cardinals, and Reds, among others. He’s a valuable pitcher, albeit one who hasn’t lived up to the expectations that came with his $217MM price tag. So it makes sense that pitching-needy teams should explore whether they Price can be had for, say, $20MM annually.
From Boston’s point of view, it’s worth nothing that even offloading $20MM of Price’s yearly salary won’t be enough to get them under the tax line. As Rosenthal states, Roster Resource pegs the Sox’ current luxury tax obligations at nearly $238MM, meaning that almost all of Price’s salary would have to come off the books if they are to sneak under the $208MM luxury tax threshold. Of course, that’s part of why Eovaldi and Mookie Betts have also been named as candidates to be traded this winter.
Price, of course, made brief stint with Toronto in 2015, when he was acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. To be sure, remnants from that 2015 team are few and far between, with a new front office and manager in place, as well as a completely refreshed core of youthful position players.
The Jays have been frequently linked to free-agent southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu, who looks like the last remaining top-flight starter on the market. However, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting that as many as seven teams are in the running for Ryu’s services, there’s a very real possibility that Toronto will strike out on that front and be forced to pivot to alternate means of improving the rotation. They’ve already added Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson, but lack a real number one after trading Marcus Stroman last year.
Nick Senzel Changes Agencies
Promising Reds’ outfielder Nick Senzel has hired the Scott Boras Corporation as representation, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The 24-year-old remains two seasons from arbitration eligibility.
The former University of Tennessee star and second overall pick made his MLB debut in 2019. He tallied 404 unremarkable plate appearances (.256/.315/.427), although he did expand his defensive profile. A third baseman in Knoxville, Senzel added the keystone to his resume in the minors. Last season, he moved to center field, where he logged all 92 of his MLB starts. He figures to stick in center now that the Reds have inked Mike Moustakas to join Eugenio Suárez on the roster.
Senzel hasn’t wowed to the extent some may have hoped, but he remains a key long-term asset for the Cincinnati organization. A former consensus top ten prospect, he comes with six seasons of team control. He’ll first need to bounce back from season-ending shoulder surgery; at last check, the Reds were “optimistic” he’d be a full go in 2020.
Senzel’s change in representation will be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent info on thousands of Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions within, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Notes On Dallas Keuchel, Market Trends
The White Sox continued their active offseason by inking Dallas Keuchel to a three-year deal with a vesting option for a fourth. Let’s check in on some reactions to Chicago’s most recent splash, as well as a look at broader market trends.
- The Sox are still a bit shy of being legitimate contenders, feels ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Between some anticipated regression from Tim Anderson, whose .399 BABIP is not sustainable, and uncertainty among Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal and Nomar Mazara, Chicago’s lineup doesn’t match up with the league’s elite, even if it is rife with upside. In Schoenfield’s estimation, that’s not quite enough to support a rotation that still looks a bit underwhelming. Keuchel and Gio González are reliable but no longer top-of-the-rotation starters, and there’s little in the way of depth beyond those two and ace Lucas Giolito. Skepticism aside, Schoenfield notes there’s little question this will be the most exciting White Sox team in recent memory.
- The Athletic’s James Fegan feels similarly, pointing out that the Sox may not contend until the soon to be 32-year-old Keuchel is firmly on the downside of his career. Nevertheless, Fegan praises the signing as a “declarative moment” for the franchise. Between Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal, the organization is showing “seriousness and urgency about breaking an embarrassing eleven-year playoff drought,” Fegan argues. Keuchel should be a positive in the clubhouse, he feels, and Chicago no doubt needed to add capable arms to a rotation that was the league’s sixth-worst run prevention unit in 2019.
- While the 72-win White Sox have been busy this offseason, playoff teams have actually been the most active in free agency thus far, found Ben Clemens of Fangraphs in a piece which predated the Keuchel signing. 58.6% of free agents worth at least 2 fWAR last season have inked with teams who made the postseason in 2019. (Keuchel’s signing wouldn’t change that figure, as he was worth just 0.8 wins in his abbreviated time with the Braves). If that trend were to hold, it would make for the highest rate of quality free agents flocking to playoff teams in the past twenty years. Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Anthony Rendon are among the notable exceptions. Nevertheless, as Clemens explores more fully, teams looking to defend their postseason berths, not those hoping to unseat recent powerhouses, have been the first to strike in free agency.
Phillies Sign T.J. Rivera To Minor-League Deal
The Phillies agreed to a minor-league deal last week with T.J. Rivera, as first reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). No other terms are known, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the former Mets’ infielder secured an invite to MLB spring training.
Rivera, now 31, hasn’t seen MLB action since a September 2017 Tommy John Surgery. Before that injury, he had done fairly well as a role player in Queens, slashing .304/.335/.445 (109 wRC+), while logging time at first, second, third and in left field. He’s never been one to draw many walks or hit for much power, but he perennially put the ball in play in the minors and ran a minuscule 14.2% strikeout rate over his 344 MLB plate appearances.
Rivera latched on with the Nationals on a minor-league deal last August, but an undisclosed injury limited him to fifteen games in AA. He’ll try to earn a spot as a right-handed utility option off Joe Girardi’s bench, much like Phil Gosselin, whom the Phillies also recently signed to a minor-league deal.
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Dallas Keuchel Deal
Dallas Keuchel is the newest member of the White Sox, courtesy of a three-year, $55.5MM deal with a vesting option that could push the final value of the deal to 4/$74MM. At 31 years old, Keuchel can’t be called an upside play, nor is he likely, given recent performance, to repeat the kind of output that saw him earn a Cy Young award back in 2015. But, in committing multiple years and an $18.5MM AAV to the lefty, the White Sox seemed to, for the moment, answer an age-old question: just what is the value of “pretty good”, anyway?
For front offices in recent offseasons, “pretty good” has seemed to be a non-starter. When Keuchel was on the market just last winter, more than a few observers offered opinions on why the lefty struggled to find a long-term deal: there was the dip in velocity; the mid-3.00 FIPs; a resounding lack of strikeout oomph. Few argued that Keuchel was an incompetent pitcher, but words like “impact”, “upside”, and “premier” were not what one would have ascribed to him. A year later, debate will likely still follow his receipt of a deal that, if vested, will be within throwing distance of a $100MM.
Then again, if the case of Dallas Keuchel and his recent forays into the open market say anything, the commentary may be more about the current qualifying offer system than anything else. Sure, one could argue that the prorated, one-year, $13MM deal he signed with the Braves last year was of the “prove it” variety— a chance to show that downward trends in velocity and underlying metrics wouldn’t threaten his bottom-line results. But did Keuchel really prove that in 2019?
Across 112.2 innings with Atlanta, Keuchel basically pitched to career averages. His 3.72 ERA (3.67 career ERA), 7.27 K/9 (7.16 career K/9), and 60.1% GB rate (58.9% career GB rate) in 2019 were all in keeping with his broader body of work, if not slightly better. Meanwhile, he continued to show diminished velocity (88.3 mean mph in 2019) and his 4.72 FIP would tell you he was somewhat benefitted by the defense playing behind him in Atlanta—leaving some remaining question as to whether his performance is sustainable. Basically, Keuchel is the same guy who entered last offseason in search of a long-term deal—except one year older, and, perhaps more critically, free of a QO. For those inclined to criticize this deal as an overpay based on what the lefty received last offseason, it would pay to bear that in mind.
Within the context of this offseason, Keuchel checks in comfortably below what Madison Bumgarner received from Arizona. That five-year, $85MM was slightly lighter in terms of AAV, although that was likely a secondary consideration with respect to the opportunity to maximize guaranteed dollars—plus, we know Bumgarner was rather adamant about ending up in Arizona and may have left richer offers on the table. Meanwhile, it trumps what Kyle Gibson earned, and is miles above the one-year, $9MM guarantee that Julio Teheran—another player comfortably within the hall of pretty good—received from Los Angeles. This may not register as brilliant analysis, but, for the moment, Keuchel’s deal seems to occupy its own little window in the winter of 2019-2020.
For a relatively recent precedent, we might look, perhaps a bit ironically, to the four-year, $67.5MM contract Nathan Eovaldi drew from the Red Sox in the very same offseason that saw Keuchel left out in the cold. Eovaldi was likely able to earn that sum because of his relative youth, postseason performance, and, of course, premier amounts of impact/upside. Keuchel was lacking in a few of those departments last offseason, but, then again, he offered a few things Eovaldi did not: a broad track record of stability, numerous 30-start seasons, and a sinker-based repertoire that may prove more immune to season-over-season vagaries. He may lack Eovaldi’s horizon, but he offers a “pretty good” floor. That Keuchel should ultimately line up alongside Eovaldi in terms of AAV is perhaps a fitting commentary on his value.
So, what say you? Is this an overpay for veteran stability or a reasonable investment in the market’s mid-point? Just what is the value of pretty good, anyway? (Poll link for app users)
NL Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Mets, Arenado, Hernandez
A fourth guaranteed year has been said to be the lynchpin in any potential deal for third baseman Josh Donaldson this winter, leaving interested teams in a precarious spot as they play chicken with the veteran’s representatives. The Braves, in particular, could be in something of a no-mans-land if they miss out on Donaldson, as they would lose their incumbent starter and potentially see a league rival (Nationals, Dodgers) strengthen their lineup at the same time. As David O’Brien of The Athletic sees it, the team’s two recourses in the event of a Donaldson departure may be the exploration of trades for either Kris Bryant of the Cubs or Nolan Arenado of the Rockies—and neither of those options is entirely realistic in the writer’s eyes. For Bryant, his ongoing grievance with the Cubs adds a fair bit of uncertainty for any interested trade partner. While the Cubs are, as O’Brien puts it, “widely expected” to win that grievance hearing and maintain two years of control on Bryant, it’s not impossible that the tide could swing in Bryant’s favor and leave him with just one year left.
When it comes to Arenado, O’Brien seems merely skeptical that Atlanta would be willing to swallow a contract of that magnitude, considering that the $35MM annual salaries in Arenado’s deal would more than double the highest salary that Braves star Ronald Acuna will make in the final years of the eight-year, $100MM extension he signed in April. Then again, Donaldson has reportedly given the Braves the right of last refusal on any potential deal, so it may well be that Atlanta ends up viewing a four-year Donaldson deal as the most reasonable course of action. Given that Washington and Minnesota have reportedly made four-year offers already, this may be a case of a player waiting for his preferred team to blink.
More from around the NL…
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post sees no such obstacle standing in the way of an Arenado-Mets pairing. As Sherman notes, the team’s ability to save as much as $23.5MM in the Yoenis Cespedes adjustment may give them some crucial breathing room to entertain a truly franchise-altering blockbuster. Additionally, the club may be well served to counter the Yankees Gerrit Cole addition with a headline-grabbing move of their own, and Steve Cohen’s continued negotiations with the Sterling partners to become the majority owner of the Mets may offer them some added financial backbone in the near future. Still, a deal for Arenado would realistically cost the team not just payroll space, but also a talented young player of the Jeff McNeil variety—not exactly an easy price to pay in its own right.
- Nationals organizational outfielder Yadiel Hernandez will be extended an invite to big league Spring Training in recognition of his excellent 2019 season in Triple-A, reports Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post. Dougherty adds that Hernandez will get at least a “small look” in camp, after a ’19 campaign in which the 32-year-old hit .323/.406/.604 with 33 home runs. It’s not exactly common to see 32-year-old rookies, but there does come a point where, juiced ball caveats aside, a player’s performance demands at least a trial run at the highest level. Plus, Hernandez did come over with a fair amount of recognition as an international signing out of Cuba in advance of the 2017 season. As things stand now, the champs will enter 2020 with Michael A. Taylor and Andrew Stevenson as bench outfielders.