Evaluating The $200MM Contracts: Pitchers
Houston’s currently fighting for its life against Tampa Bay in the ALDS, but regardless of whether the Astros advance, they could be a few weeks away from losing one of their most valuable players to free agency. Right-handed ace and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is on the cusp of reaching the open market, where his forthcoming contract figures to easily outdo the majority of his competitors’ next deals. In fact, the lone soon-to-be free agent who’s likely to wind up in Cole’s stratosphere is Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon. Both players are lining up for contracts in the $200MM range, which seems like an especially risky number for a pitcher. But how have those investments on pitchers worked out thus far? Let’s take a look at the few $200MM-plus guarantees given out to hurlers, keeping in mind that past successes or failures obviously do not determine whether Cole will thrive or fall flat once he receives his mega-contract…
David Price, LHP, Red Sox (seven years, $217MM)
- Still the owner of the richest deal ever for a pitcher, Price hasn’t continued as an ace since he signed with the Red Sox entering the 2016 season. At that point, Price was a world-class run stopper who’d already logged five seasons with at least 200 innings. The Boston version has hit the 200 mark just once, though, and has put up a 3.84 ERA/3.74 FIP with 9.32 K/9 and 2.39 BB/9 across 588 frames. On paper, that production’s absolutely fine, but the Red Sox probably expected more when they splurged on Price almost a half-decade ago. Of course, thanks in part to Price, the Red Sox won the World Series a year ago. Flags fly forever.
Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers (seven years, $215MM)
- Admittedly, it’s debatable whether we should count this deal. After all, Kershaw essentially opted out of it last offseason (when he had two years and $65MM left on the pact) in favor of a three-year, $93MM contract to stick with the Dodgers. No matter, Kershaw has been nothing short of outstanding since signing. Therefore, even if the eight-time All-Star and three-time NL Cy Young winner would have stayed with his previous contract, the Dodgers certainly wouldn’t have buyer’s remorse.
Max Scherzer, RHP, Nationals (seven years, $210MM)
- Speaking of not regretting a $200MM-plus investment on a pitcher … we arrive at the Nationals, who are surely thrilled with the free-agent gamble they took on the ex-Tiger Scherzer going into 2016. Scherzer, who has been an All-Star every year and won a pair of NL Cy Youngs since then, remains among the game’s most imposing hurlers to this day. The 35-year-old’s fresh off yet another tremendous (albeit injury-limited) regular season and has been a key figure in what could be a stunning first-round playoff upset of the juggernaut Dodgers.
Zack Greinke, RHP, Astros (six years, $206.5MM)
- Arizona poured its financial resources into Greinke entering 2016, though the headline-stealing addition didn’t quite pay off the way the club hoped. But that’s not a knock on Greinke, who excelled as a D-back. The team’s payroll just couldn’t support his ongoing presence, so it dealt Greinke to the Astros at this summer’s trade deadline. The 35-year-old, however, has enjoyed the latest terrific season of his career between the two organizations. Greinke’s $200MM-plus payday may not have been the most responsible move for an Arizona franchise that’s not a huge spender, but his production has been worthy of it.
If the above group shows us anything, it’s that no pitcher in the $200MM club has flopped (some have been great). That doesn’t mean Cole will follow in their footsteps if he scores a similar contract, but it’s hard to bet against a dominant, flamethrowing workhorse who still has another season in his 20s to come.
Statcast Standouts: Pending FA Hitters
There are multiple ways to evaluate the performance of hitters in Major League Baseball. You can go by the traditional back-of-the-baseball-card statistics, FanGraphs metrics or even the newfangled Statcast numbers we’ve seen pop up over the past couple years. For the purpose of this piece, we’ll go Statcast style to take a look at the hitters who are scheduled to be available in the upcoming offseason’s free-agent class. Here are the standouts at each position when it comes to expected weighted on-base average and average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls (data courtesy of Baseball Savant)…
Catchers:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Yasmani Grandal .362 (real wOBA: .365)
- Jason Castro .362 (.331)
- Alex Avila .352 (.327)
- Travis d’Arnaud .328 (.318)
- Stephen Vogt .326 (.336)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Chris Iannetta 97.2 mph
- Alex Avila 96.6
- Jason Castro 96.5
- Welington Castillo 96.2
- Travis d’Arnaud 93.6
First basemen:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Howie Kendrick .418 (.405)
- David Freese .378 (.420)
- Justin Smoak .367 (.327)
- Kendrys Morales .366 (.265)
- Jose Abreu .361 (.349)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Lucas Duda 96.4 mph
- Jose Abreu 96.1
- Mitch Moreland 95.8
- Matt Adams 95.6 (will become free agent if Nationals choose $1MM buyout over $4MM option)
- Howie Kendrick 94.4
Second basemen:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Howie Kendrick .418 (.405)
- Brian Dozier .329 (.333)
- Brock Holt .315 (.336)
- Jason Kipnis .312 (.305)
- Ben Zobrist .310 (.305)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Howie Kendrick 94.4 mph
- Jonathan Schoop 93.5
- Eduardo Nunez/Chris Owings 93.1
- Brian Dozier 92.9
- Logan Forsythe 92.8
Shortstops:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Jordy Mercer .320 (.318)
- Adeiny Hechavarria .296 (.316)
- Didi Gregorius .291 (.302)
- Jose Iglesias .287 (.309)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Adeiny Hechavarria 92.8 mph
- Jordy Mercer 92.2
- Didi Gregorius 91.8
- Jose Iglesias 87.5
Third basemen:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Anthony Rendon .413 (.418)
- Josh Donaldson .386 (.382)
- Mike Moustakas .345 (.353)
- Pablo Sandoval .337 (.341)
- Logan Forsythe .320 (.301)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Josh Donaldson 98.1
- Jung Ho Kang 97.1
- Pablo Sandoval 95.2
- Mike Moustakas 93.8
- Anthony Rendon 93.5
Outfielders:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Marcell Ozuna .379 (.340)
- Nicholas Castellanos .362 (.360)
- Hunter Pence .358 (.382)
- Matt Joyce .355 (.375)
- Avisail Garcia .344 (.338)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Marcell Ozuna 96.3 mph
- Hunter Pence 95.4
- Avisail Garcia 95.2
- Kole Calhoun 95.0 (Angels can buy Calhoun out for $1MM or exercise a $14MM option)
- Yasiel Puig 94.2
Cubs Launch Managerial Interviews
Oct. 8: Girardi will interview tomorrow, Gonzales further reports, with Ross slated to interview later in the week. Venable, meanwhile, interviewed for the position yesterday.
Oct. 4: The Cubs have begun formal interviews as they seek to identify their next manager, the team informed reporters including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). First-round interviews will carry into next week, at least.
First up for a chat was Mark Loretta, who served as the club’s bench coach under departing skipper Joe Maddon. Loretta had his interview yesterday. As previously reported, first base coach Will Venable will also get a chance to petition for the job. He’s slated for a sit-down next week.
Another previously reported candidate for the position, David Ross, will also get his first formal managerial interview next week. The veteran backstop-turned-analyst has long been speculated as a candidate.
Ross is not far removed from being an in-uniform veteran presence, but has never held a coaching or managing position. Loretta and Venable each have coaching experience, but neither has ever managed.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Cubs will also look at more experienced candidates. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein has said he’d “have a greater comfort for someone handling the role before.”
Joe Girardi is about as experienced as any managerial candidate, having helmed the Marlins for one season before a decade-long stint with the Yankees. He’s also slated to chat with Epstein and company next week.
Indication has been that the Cubs will look far and wide for candidates. If so, it would stand to reason that other names will still pop up for first-round interviews. The existing slate, after all, isn’t exactly an exotic group in terms of background. Two are former Chicago catchers while the others were in Cubs uniforms in the just-completed campaign.
Buck Showalter Not Being Considered For Padres’ Manager
6:40pm: Despite his connection to Machado, Showalter is not currently in the mix to become the next manager, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.
1:05pm: Padres star third baseman Manny Machado is “letting it be known he would like [the] Padres to at least take a look at” his former skipper Buck Showalter, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes on Twitter. Showalter managed Machado for seven seasons in Baltimore.
It’s somewhat unusual to hear of a player suggesting a possible managerial hire. But Machado inked a $300MM deal to join the San Diego organization last winter, so he and the club are joined at the hip for ten seasons (barring intervening developments). That whopping contract perhaps gives him an unusual level of standing in the Padres franchise. And there’s no hint here that he’s demanding Showalter be the chosen candidate.
Showalter would certainly suit the Padres’ desire for an experienced helmsman. The 63-year-old is a grizzled veteran of twenty MLB seasons as a manager. A notably old-school presence around the diamond, Showalter has certainly still had success in the modern game. His O’s teams outperformed expectations and had a notable run of success from 2012 through 2016. After sitting out a year, Showalter is obviously itching to get back at it, as he has previously expressed interest in interviewing for the Mets opening.
At this point, it isn’t known whether Showalter is a realistic candidate for the Padres — or even whether they’ll seriously consider him at all. But it stands to reason the club would at least take a look, particularly now that its highest-paid player has made his preference known.
Postseason Injury Notes: Chapman, Wacha, Diaz
Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman was seen with his left hand heavily bandaged during the team’s celebration last night, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post, but the lefty insisted that there was no serious injury at play. Rather, Chapman explained, he was hit with a bottle while jumping with teammates to celebrate the Yankees’ advancement to the American League Championship Series. There’s no indication that Chapman would need to miss New York’s forthcoming date with either the Astros or the Rays.
A few more injury situations to monitor around the league…
- Cardinals righty Michael Wacha will throw a bullpen session tomorrow, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. A mild shoulder strain kept Wacha off the Cardinals’ NLDS roster, but if he comes out of this ‘pen session well and the Cards manage to topple the Braves in tomorrow’s decisive Game 5, Wacha could reemerge as an option for the pitching staff in the next round. Of course, Wacha didn’t exactly cement himself as a crucial part of a postseason roster while struggling through one of his worst big league seasons. In 126 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.76 ERA with career-worst marks in K/9 (7.4), BB/9 (3.9) and HR/9 (1.85). He’ll be a free agent this winter, so if he doesn’t return for a potential NLCS berth, Wacha may have already tossed his last pitch as a Cardinal.
- Rays slugger Yandy Diaz is still on the team’s postseason roster despite exiting Monday’s game with an apparent foot injury, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Though he’s not in tonight’s starting lineup — Joey Wendle gets the nod at third base, with Ji-Man Choi at first and Tommy Pham DH’ing — Diaz presumably remains available for pinch-hit duties or for a mid-game substitution. Wade Miley is the only lefty on Houston’s ALDS roster, but Diaz and his .314/.397/.588 slash against southpaws could quite likely emerge from the dugout if Miley makes his way to the mound.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Manfred Reportedly Told Oakland Officials That A’s Could Move To Las Vegas
Oakland mayor Libby Schaaf said today that Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred has indicated that he sees Las Vegas, Nevada as a possible relocation spot for the Athletics, Sal Castaneda of KTVU reports on Twitter. Manfred’s threat of exploring options in Vegas had been reported recently by the San Francisco Chronicle.
The newly combative stance from MLB’s top official arose after the city of Oakland filed a surprise suit to block a major portion of the A’s stadium plans. Manfred’s already reported comments conveyed a thinly veiled warning that the team and league could consider alternatives. But it was not known that he had specifically floated Las Vegas as a realistic possibility.
Vegas holds particular allure for Major League Baseball and special meaning to Oakland-area fans. After all, Sin City just lured away the Raiders with a massively subsidized new stadium. Whether or not there’s further appetite in Nevada for taxpayer-funded facilities isn’t really clear, but it is at least a facially plausible threat for the commissioner to make. Notably, though, local officials said they were unaware of any actual discussions to this point, per the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Several other cities have been mentioned at times as potential relocation spots, but it’s not clear which if any would be serious possibilities with the Rays already flirting with Montreal.
Manfred has made clear plenty of times in the past that his strong preference is for the Athletics to remain in Oakland. And the A’s have worked hard to come up with a workable plan built around private financing (which isn’t to say that significant public support wouldn’t be involved). There are surely still plenty of pathways for that result, though it’s also certain that team and league have little appetite for too many more campaigns in the Coliseum.
Red Sox Announce Coaching Staff Changes
The Red Sox announced several notable changes to the coaching staff under manager Alex Cora. In particular, the club will be hiring a new pitching coach duo.
While the Boston organization will retain the services of pitching coach Dana LeVangie and assistant pitching coach Brian Bannister, both will be reassigned. The former will join Steve Langone (who had been manager of advanced scouting) as pro scouts. Bannister will become VP of pitching development, thereby turning his attention to the organization’s farm system.
In addition, the club announced that Andy Barkett will not return as the assistant hitting coach. He had been in that role since the 2018 season, working alongside hitting coach Tim Hyers.
It isn’t entirely clear whether the Red Sox are contemplating any further changes to the staff, though it seems reasonable to presume that they’ll retain the remaining coaches. The club has continued to move ahead with fairly significant decisions even though it still lacks a single chief of its baseball operations department.
Three Needs: Baltimore Orioles
We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that fell out of contention. The Orioles were about as bad as expected last year, but have plenty of possibilities in their second season under GM Mike Elias.
[Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart]
1. Go Wild On Pitching
The Orioles rotation was simply brutal in 2019, allowing more than two home runs per nine innings on average. John Means was quite effective but outperformed his peripherals by a wide margin. Dylan Bundy showed enough to keep hoping he’ll fully realize his talent. Otherwise … mid-season acquisition Asher Wojciechowski led the way with a 4.96 ERA in 16 starts. There were times where the organization had to scramble to find arms.
The Baltimore org should aim for better in 2020. To be fair, the O’s were hoping for much more from Alex Cobb and Nate Karns. And late-spring signee Dan Straily was worse than should have been expected. But there’s an argument to be made that the club should have been more proactive from the outset — and, more importantly, that it ought to be going forward. Given the state of the returning staff, which could include Cobb if he’s able to work back to health, there’s little choice but to add.
Notably, payroll is continuing to dive. There’s only so far to go while Cobb and Chris Davis are still on the books, but the O’s will start with just over $35MM in obligations before sorting out their arbitration situation. It’d obviously be foolish for the team to go splashing cash on veteran free agents, and attracting the most appealing buy-low candidates will be tough given the difficulties of pitching against AL East sluggers in Camden Yards. But there should be opportunities to acquire interesting pitchers via trade or signing, and the Orioles shouldn’t hesitate to commit a bit of cash to acquire some baseline competence and — perhaps — marketable trade assets. And the team should be exceptionally active in grabbing interesting arms from the waiver wire and minor-league free agent market.
2. Market The Middle Infielders
Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto both turned in high-quality efforts in 2019. The former checked in at about four wins above replacement thanks to otherworldly baserunning, above-average hitting, and solid-enough glovework at shortstop. He earned nearly $5MM last year and will get a raise, so he isn’t cheap, but Villar is a fascinating utility rental piece for a contender. As for Alberto, he glowed with the glove at second and made so much contact (9.1% strikeout rate, .305 batting average) that you can almost look past his awful 2.9% walk rate. With loads of cheap control (but no options) remaining, Alberto occupies a different but also useful space in the roster landscape.
To be sure, neither of these players is likely to draw a huge return. But it’d be rewarding to get something back for them after already enjoying their strong work in an otherwise largely miserable season. Cashing in now makes sense as well because it would clear the deck to take yet more risks on other middle infielders. The chief asset for a rebuilding team is its roster flexibility. Chasing upside makes sense; at the very least, the team can look for the next Villar or Alberto.
3. Extend Or Trade Trey Mancini
You hate to think about moving a homegrown star at all, but the Orioles need to be careful not to get stuck in the middle on Mancini. He’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time, with three more seasons of control before free agency. On the heels of a strong bounceback campaign (.291/.364/.535, 35 home runs), Mancini is peaking in value.
There have been prior rumblings of a possible extension. That is a strategy worth pursuing. Mancini is already 27, so he’s not exceedingly youthful. But the Baltimore organization will rightly want to keep at least one gate draw on the roster and can still hope that Mancini will be an important part of the club’s next contending outfit.
That said, the price really has to be right to do an extension. The Padres’ experience with Wil Myers provides something of a cautionary tale. If the O’s can’t strike a real bargain, they’re probably better off dangling Mancini to some of the many organizations that would love to install him as a centerpiece for the next three campaigns.
Former Big Leaguers Playing Abroad: KBO Hitter Roundup
It’s always fun to keep an eye on familiar players who’ve taken their talents across the pond. Now that the 2019 season is in the books, it seemed an opportune time to check in. Numerous former big leaguers are playing abroad, many of them thriving in Asia’s top leagues.
We’ve seen foreign stints help spur big league revivals from quite a few players. Eric Thames, Miles Mikolas, and Chris Martin are among those that played significant roles in the 2019 MLB campaign. Whether any of the players covered below will do so remains to be seen, but there’s certainly a path.
Let’s start with the Korea Baseball Organization, the top league in South Korea. Remember, teams in the KBO and other leagues face limits on the number of non-native players they can employ. That creates a lot of pressure to secure big production from those roster spots, and often spurs mid-season change. (Statistics courtesy of the always excellent MyKBO.)
The top performers …
- Former Phillies slugger Darin Ruf marauded the KBO once again, though he wasn’t quite as awesome this year (.911 OPS, 22 home runs) as he was in 2018 (1.024 OPS, 33 home runs). After scoring with Ruf, the Samsung Lions went after Mac Williamson in a mid-season move. But Williamson failed to gain traction in his forty contests, hitting a tepid .273/.329/.409.
- Several other hitters joined Ruf as repeat KBO participants and star-level performers. Outfielder Jamie Romak has also now completed three excellent campaigns with the SK Wyverns. Like Ruf, he took a step back this year (1.001 OPS to .878 OPS), likely reflecting a KBO baseball de-juicing effort.
- After a brief but promising showing in 2018, Jerry Sands rewarded the Kiwoom Heroes for bringing him back by swatting 28 dingers and batting a robust .305/.400/.543 on the year. Jared Hoying wasn’t quite as productive, but turned in a solid sophomore campaign with the Hanwha Eagles (.284/.343/.460).
- The KT Wiz continued to benefit from their 2017 find of outfielder Mel Rojas Jr., who never got a big-league call-up from the Pirates or Braves. He slashed a robust .322/.384/.530 with 24 homers in his third KBO season.
Several KBO newcomers found something in their new organizations …
- Jose Miguel Fernandez took a difficult path to the majors and did not receive a lengthy opportunity at the game’s highest level, but displayed his intriguing blend of hitting ability with the Doosan Bears. Appearing in all 144 contests, Fernandez poked 15 long balls and slashed a hefty .344/.413/.483.
- The KIA Tigers dropped former Cardinals flash-in-the-pan outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker after just eleven contests. That may have been a quick leash, but they ended up making out well with Preston Tucker. The former MLB reserve outfielder ultimately slashed .311/.382/.479 with nine home runs.
Other KBO organizations are likely to go back to the drawing board after cycling through multiple players …
- Another team changing horses in mid-stream was the LG Twins, who tired of former Phillies first bagger Tommy Joseph after he slashed .274/.335/.426 with nine long balls in 54 games. The club turned to another OBP-challenged slugger in the left-handed-hitting Carlos Peguero, who provided a bit more overall offense (.286/.333/.472) but no additional dingers (9) in his 57 appearances.
- Former Padres infielder Carlos Asuaje struggled in 49 games with the Lotte Giants, slashing just .252/.358/.368. He was replaced by Jacob Wilson, a former Cards and Nats farmhand, but Wilson wasn’t much more effective (.251/.352/.433 with nine home runs). (Wilson and Rojas were the only two hitters to appear in the KBO this year without prior MLB experience.)
- The NC Dinos opened the year with Christian Bethancourt behind the plate, but he didn’t do enough damage to hang onto his roster spot, with a .246/.311/.404 line in 53 games. That led to a mid-season change to former big league outfielder Jake Smolinski. Unfortunately, he managed only a .229/.301/.439 slash of his own.