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Past, Present & Future: National League Closer Turnover

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While a new breed of pitcher, one who can rack up holds, strikeouts and throw multiple innings, is beginning to emerge as an integral role on a baseball roster, becoming the “closer” is still the ultimate goal for a Major League relief pitcher. The closer gets the entrance music. The closer gets the congratulatory hug from the catcher after the third out, followed by handshakes from every teammate. Closers get paid! Most importantly, being the closer usually means that your manager trusts you above all other pitchers in that bullpen.

Give up a lead in the seventh or eighth inning and your team still has a chance to pick you up. The later in the game a players fails, the better chance that mistake will stand out to anyone watching. It will be in the headlines. Fantasy Baseball owners will want to know who is “next in line.”  And for a team that has fought tooth and nail to get to the ninth inning with a lead, it can be debilitating if the last pitcher standing can’t close things out. Managers don’t have much patience for blown saves, either. There is a lot of pressure and a lot of turnover, which is why most teams won’t have the same closer in September as they did on Opening Day.

Here’s a look back at each National League team’s closer situation on Opening Day versus where they are now and where they will be as they head into the offseason. (We ran through the American League earlier this week.)

[Related: MLB closer depth chart at Roster Resource]

Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Brad Boxberger
September 2018: Committee — Yoshihisa Hirano, Archie Bradley, Boxberger

Future Outlook: The Diamondbacks opted to keep their best reliever, Bradley, in a setup role while plugging offseason acquisition Boxberger into the closer’s role. For the majority of the season, things went according to plan. That duo, along with Hirano and lefties Andrew Chafin and T.J. McFarland, were a strength on a team that led the NL West on September 1. But as the bullpen has fallen apart over the past few weeks, the team has quickly descended in the standings and fallen out of the playoff hunt.

As a result, the D-backs will head into the offseason with their closer situation somewhat up in the air. Overall, Boxberger, Bradley and Hirano have each been mostly effective and can still be counted on as valuable late-inning relievers. The D-backs will need to decide if they want add a better ninth inning option, though with numerous holes to fill as key players like A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin depart via free agency, the team could decide it has bigger needs.

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Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Arodys Vizcaino
September 2018: Arodys Vizcaino

Future Outlook: Vizcaino was entrenched as the Braves’ closer to start the season, and he’s seemingly back in as the Braves prepare for their first playoff series since 2013. A.J. Minter proved to be a capable fill-in during both of Vizcaino’s disabled list stints. For a time, he even appeared to be more of a co-closer with a healthy Vizcaino on the roster, presenting a very formidable righty-lefty combination in the late innings.

With a solid group of relievers, including Minter, Jesse Biddle, Shane Carle and Dan Winkler, all under contract for next season and the chance that one or two of their enticing young prospects could help out of the ’pen, the Braves appear to be in good shape in 2019. They could be tempted, however, to bring back free agent Craig Kimbrel, who had 186 saves, four All-Star appearances and won the NL Rookie of the Year award during a five-year stint with the team from 2010-2014.

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Chicago Cubs | Cubs Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Brandon Morrow
September 2018: Committee — Jesse Chavez, Jorge De La Rosa, Steve Cishek, etc.

Future Outlook: The offseason signing of Morrow came with significant risk due to his long history of injuries and a heavy postseason workload (14 appearances) with the Dodgers in 2017. And while the Cubs did their best not to overuse him—he made back-to-back appearances just six times and pitched on three consecutive days only once—his season ended in mid-July due to a bone bruise in his elbow and biceps inflammation.

Pedro Strop was up to the task as the fill-in closer—he had a 1.77 ERA and 11 saves in 13 chances after Morrow went on the disabled list—but a strained hamstring ended his regular season on September 13. He could return for the playoffs. In the meantime, the Cubs have been mixing and matching in the late innings, at times relying on journeymen like Chavez and De La Rosa as they try to hold off the Brewers in the NL Central race.

Morrow and Strop will be back in the picture in 2018—Strop’s $6.25MM club option will almost certainly be exercised—as will setup men Carl Edwards Jr. and Cishek. Finding a left-hander who can close, if necessary, might be on the team’s agenda. Zach Britton could be a target if that’s the case.

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Cincinnati Reds | Reds Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Raisel Iglesias
September 2018: Raisel Iglesias

Future Outlook: Iglesias has had three consecutive good seasons out of the bullpen with 63 saves in 71 opportunities. The Reds, however, have been in last place with less than 70 wins in each of those years, making Iglesias’ contributions less significant.

If the Reds are confident that they can be a much better team in 2019, it makes perfect sense to hold on to the 28-year-old right-hander—he’s under team control through 2021—and make him available via trade only if they fall out of contention during the season. Since he’s been able to stay healthy as a relief pitcher—not to mention that there is no clear “next in line” closer in the organization—they’re be better off leaving things as they are rather than experimenting with a move back to the rotation. The ninth inning should belong to Iglesias again come Opening Day 2019.

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Colorado Rockies | Rockies Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Wade Davis
September 2018: Wade Davis

Future Outlook: Despite a few rough patches along the way, the 33-year-old Davis has 42 saves for the first-place Rockies and has been on a roll when it counts the most. In his last 17 appearances, he’s 10-for-10 in save chances with 23 strikeouts in 17 innings and only one earned run allowed.

Davis is still guaranteed $36MM over the next two seasons—he’ll also get another $14MM in 2021 if he finishes 30 games in 2020—so his mid-season struggles and continued decrease in fastball velocity (95.9 MPH in ’15; 94.9 MPH in ’16, 94.3 MPH in ’17; 93.8 MPH in ’18) are a concern. He has done enough to hold on to the closing job for 2019, but it would be a good idea to have a backup plan in place. Adam Ottavino, the team’s most valuable reliever with a 2.47 ERA, six saves and 33 holds, will be a free agent after the season. Re-signing him or replacing him with a top free agent will be difficult considering that Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw, both disappointments thus far, signed $27MM contracts last offseason. They could rely heavily on Seunghwan Oh, who recently had his $2.5MM option vest for 2019 and has been very good since being acquired from Toronto in July.

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Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Kenley Jansen
September 2018: Kenley Jansen

Future Outlook: Jansen allowed six earned runs with two blown saves and a loss in his first seven appearances of 2018. He missed 13 days in August due to an irregular heart beat that will likely require offseason surgery. Upon his return, he allowed seven earned runs with two losses and a blown save over four appearances. And yet, the 30-year-old right-hander has 37 saves and a sub-3.00 ERA for a Dodgers team that is fighting for a playoff spot as we head into the last weekend of the regular season.

Jansen’s occasional struggles on the mound and health concerns only magnified the team’s inability to replace Morrow, who was their primary setup man and bullpen workhorse last post-season. Setup relievers seem likely to be an area of focus this winter, and the Dodgers will be keeping their fingers crossed that Jansen comes back strong in what will be year three of a five-year, $80MM contract.

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Miami Marlins | Marlins Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Brad Ziegler
September 2018: Co-Closers — Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley

Future Outlook: It’s not clear why the rebuilding Marlins stuck with the veteran Ziegler through a rocky two-month stint as the closer to begin the season. Even though he had just one blown save in 10 chances when he was removed from the role, he had an ERA near 8.00 and Kyle Barraclough, next in line, had a 1.48 ERA. If they had any reluctance to turn it over to Barraclough, he showed why that might’ve been the case by losing the job two months later.

After locking down all seven save chances while allowing just one hit over 12 scoreless innings in June, Barraclough fell apart in July. Over his next 13 appearances, he blew four saves and allowed 14 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings before the Marlins decided on a closer-by-committee approach in early August. Steckenrider and Conley lead the team with four and two saves, respectively, since Barraclough was removed from the closer’s role. Both pitchers have an ERA over 5.00 in the second half, however, so it’s very likely that the team will look to find a more reliable option during the offseason.

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Milwaukee Brewers | Brewers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Corey Knebel
September 2018: Committee — Knebel, Jeremy Jeffress, Josh Hader

Future Outlook: Knebel suffered a hamstring injury during his third appearance of the season, forcing him to the disabled list for a month. By the time he returned, Hader and Jeffress had each established that they were more than capable of picking up the slack if Knebel could not return to his 2017 form. And this did prove to be the case. The 26-year-old Knebel, sharing the closer’s role with Hader and Jeffress, had a 5.08 ERA through August 31st. September has been a different story, however, as Knebel has allowed just four hits and three walks over 13 1/3 scoreless innings with 26 strikeouts. Regardless of how things go in the playoffs, the Brewers appear set with the same trio of late-inning relievers heading into 2019.

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New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Jeurys Familia
September 2018: Committee — Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Anthony Swarzak

Future Outlook: The return of Familia, who missed time in 2017 due to a 15-game suspension and a three-and-a-half month-stint on the disabled list, was supposed to help propel the Mets back into playoff contention. While things have not gone swimmingly for the Mets, Familia’s comeback has actually gone quite well. He posted a 2.88 ERA with 17 saves for the Mets, was traded to Oakland in July and should be headed for a decent payday in free agency this offseason.

The Mets, coincidentally, will likely be in the market for a closer, although it’s not known whether they or Familia would be open to a reunion. Gsellman has held his own as the primary closer, saving eight of nine games since Familia’s departure, but probably isn’t the long-term answer. Lugo has been terrific out of the ’pen, although his best role could be as a multi-inning setup man for whoever the team’s next closer will be.

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Philadelphia Phillies | Phillies Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Hector Neris
September 2018: Committee – Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Tommy Hunter, etc.

Future Outlook: Neris was 8-for-10 in save chances with three losses and an ERA over 5.00 in mid-May when manager Gabe Kapler declared that he would no longer have a set closer. It didn’t take long for rookie Seranthony Dominguez to emerge as the most significant part of the group, pitching 14 2/3 scoreless innings with only two hits allowed, no walks and 16 strikeouts to begin his MLB career. He would falter as the season progressed, though, leaving Kapler to rely more on veterans Hunter and Pat Neshek down the stretch.

Considering that Dominguez was a starting pitching prospect with no experience in the upper minors prior to the 2018 season, it wouldn’t be a stretch to think he can take a big leap forward and solidify the closer’s job for a full season. But with expectations for the Phillies likely to be in the high-to-extremely-high range, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Phillies pursue a more established free agent to close out games.

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Pittsburgh Pirates | Pirates Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Felipe Vazquez
September 2018: Felipe Vazquez

Future Outlook: Vazquez signed a $22MM contract extension in the offseason and changed his name in April. By the end of May, Vazquez had an ERA near 5.00 and four blown saves. There wasn’t the normal negative buzz that surrounds most closers after blowing a save or two, though. He had only allowed an earned run in four of 24 appearances and the Pirates were playing much better than expected. He was also dealing with forearm discomfort and, of course, was one of the most dominant relief pitchers in baseball in 2017. He earned that long leash. Over his last 44 appearances, the 27-year-old lefty has a 1.77 ERA and 26 saves in 27 chances. Yep– still one of the most dominant relievers in baseball.

With three games to go, Vazquez is two appearances shy of reaching at least 70 games for the third consecutive season. He pitched both ends of a double-header twice in 2018 and pitched three consecutive days on three occasions, including two days after experiencing the forearm pain. The acquisition of Keone Kela and the emergence of Kyle Crick and Richard Rodriguez as reliable setup men should help ease Vazquez’s workload in 2019.

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San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart 

Opening Day 2018: Brad Hand
September 2018: Kirby Yates

Future Outlook: While Hand’s offseason contract extension removed any sense of urgency that the Padres had to trade him, it also made him a much more valuable trade chip. After saving 24 games and posting a 3.05 ERA with 13.2 K/9 in 41 appearances, Hand was traded to the Indians for catcher Francisco Mejia, one of the top prospects in baseball. Yates stepped into the closer’s role, although there was a decent chance that it would be a short stint with 12 days to go until the non-waiver trade deadline and several contending teams potentially interested in acquiring him. The 31-year-old stayed put, though, giving him an extended opportunity to prove himself as an MLB closer. He’s passed the test with flying colors, saving 10 games in 11 chances—he has 12 saves overall—while continuing to strike out more than 12 batters per nine innings.

The Padres, who currently have 95 losses, aren’t likely to build a legitimate playoff contender during the offseason. However, they’re far enough into their rebuild that they’ll want to go into 2019 with a team that can at least be .500. In that case, holding on to Yates would be smart, although general manager A.J. Preller will surely be willing to pull the trigger on a deal if a team meets his asking price.

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San Francisco Giants | Giants Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Hunter Strickland
September 2018: Will Smith

Future Outlook: With Mark Melancon on the disabled list to begin the season, the Giants turned to Strickland as their closer. For the most part, he did a fine job, but his days as a closer swiftly came to an end, at least for the near future, on June 18th. Strickland entered the game with a two-run lead over the Marlins, an ERA just over 2.00 and 13 saves in 16 chances. After allowing three earned runs in the eventual 5-4 loss, he punched a door in frustration and fractured his hand. Upon returning in mid-August, Smith had 10 saves and a strong grasp on the closer’s gig.

Smith will likely be the front-runner to keep the job in ’19 with Melancon also firmly in the mix given his experience and his sizable contract (four years, $62MM). He’s not quite back to his pre-injury form, but Melancon has a 3.08 ERA in 40 appearances.

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St. Louis Cardinals | Cardinals Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Committee — Dominic Leone, Tyler Lyons, Bud Norris
September 2018: Carlos Martinez

Future Outlook: The committee was supposed to be temporary while Greg Holland, who signed a one-year contract in late March, worked his way back into shape with a Minor League stint. Holland, though, was brought to the Majors before he was ready and never looked right with the Cardinals. He walked four in his St. Louis debut and never quite recovered. Norris, as he did in 2017 with the Angels, quickly separated himself from the other closer options and proved to be a steady force in the ninth inning with 28 saves and a sub-3.00 ERA through August. The 33-year-old ran out of gas, though, forcing the team to use a temporary committee in early September. Martinez, who returned from a disabled list stint to pitch out of the bullpen in late August, has emerged as the team’s primary closer as they fight for a Wild Card spot.

It’s highly unlikely that Martinez, the Cardinals’ Opening Day starter, will remain in the bullpen beyond this season. Barring any injury concerns, he’s just too good as a starting pitcher. Rookie Jordan Hicks, who has dazzled with his 100+ MPH sinking fastball, is a good bet to be the team’s closer at some point. It’s just not certain that the Cardinals will trust him enough at the beginning of the 2019 campaign, which could put them in the market for a stop-gap closer this offseason.

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Washington Nationals | Nationals Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Sean Doolittle
September 2018: Sean Doolittle

Future Outlook: Doolittle was the Nationals’ closer on Opening Day, an NL All-Star selection in July, and he’s the Nationals’ closer as we enter the last weekend of the regular season. You’d figure things went pretty well for the Nats in 2018. But you’d be wrong.

A stress reaction in Doolittle’s foot forced him out of the All-Star game and out of action for a majority of the second half. When he returned in September, the Nats were out of the playoff chase. Five different relievers, including Kelvin Herrera, picked up saves while Doolittle was out. Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson and Shawn Kelley were all traded, and Herrera suffered a season-ending foot injury in late August.

Doolittle will be back in 2019—his $6MM club option will surely be exercised—and should jump right back into the ninth-inning role unless the Nats make a bold acquisition for another closer. In all likelihood, they’ll bring in another veteran setup man to help out a group that includes Koda Glover and Justin Miller. Greg Holland is one possibility. He has been a pleasant surprise since signing with the team in early August (0.89 ERA in 23 appearances) .

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POTENTIAL FREE-AGENT CLOSER OPTIONS
Nate Jones (if $4.65MM club option is declined)
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Ryan Madson
Andrew Miller
Fernando Rodney (if $4.25MM club option is declined)
Sergio Romo
Trevor Rosenthal
Joakim Soria (if $10MM mutual option is declined)

AL West Notes: Paxton, Buttrey, Laureano, Astros’ Roster

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Mariners lefty James Paxton is slated to make his final start of the season Saturday, and he’ll be on a pitch count of about 85, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Paxton is aiming to top 160 innings in an effort to build up to the point where he’d be able to strive for a 200-inning season without any workload limitations. Paxton, 30 in November, has never approached that mark in any professional season, topping out at a combined 171 2/3 innings between Triple-A and the Majors in 2016. He’s battled everything from a lat strain, to a forearm strain, back inflammation and a severe tendon injury in his pitching hand over the course of an impressive but injury-laden career to date. Seattle has control of Paxton through the 2020 season and will certainly be hoping for a larger workload and better health next season, given the deterioration of previous ace Felix Hernandez. Thus far in 2018, Paxton has pitched a career-high 154 1/3 innings with a career-best 11.6 K/9 mark against just 2.5 BB/9. He’s been more homer-prone than in recent years (1.34 HR/9) but still owns a solid 3.85 ERA that is backed by career-best marks in fielding-independent marks like xFIP (3.08) and SIERA (3.01).

More from the division…

  • The Angels shut down right-hander Ty Buttrey for the remainder of the season this week, as the promising 25-year-old has been dealing with a bout of bursitis in his right knee, per MLB.com’s Maria Guardado (Twitter links). Buttrey’s ascension to the big leagues didn’t draw many headlines, but he’s quietly been sensational both in the upper minors and in 16 1/3 innings for the Angels since being acquired from the Red Sox in the trade that sent Ian Kinsler to Boston. Buttrey pitched to a combined 2.20 ERA with 13.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 with three different minor league affiliates this season, and he’s sporting a 3.31 ERA with an outstanding 20-to-5 K/BB ratio and a 56.8 percent ground-ball rate in the Majors. He’s averaged a hearty 96 mph on his heater thus far in his young Major League career, and so long as his knee issues don’t prove to be especially serious, he should have an opportunity to earn his way into high-leverage spots with the Halos early next season; he did, after all, tally four saves with the Angels shortly after his MLB debut. Small sample caveats clearly apply, but the Angels have to be pleased with the early returns on that swap.
  • The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan takes a look at six questions facing the Astros as the gear up for the American League Division Series against the Indians, including a pair of questions they’ll face in setting their roster (subscription link). If Lance McCullers Jr. is ready to go as a piece in the bullpen, Houston brass will have to decide between a hard-throwing multi-inning option, Josh James, and Joe Smith, a seasoned veteran who could be a matchup specialist against Cleveland sluggers like Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson. The ’Stros also need to weigh whether Max Stassi should be carried as a third catcher, thus freeing up more pinch-hitting opportunities, or if Myles Straw and his blazing speed should command the final bench spot.
  • Ramon Laureano’s brilliant play with the Athletics since debuting in early August has earned him the team’s everyday center fielder role moving forward, writes Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. That spot had been earmarked for Dustin Fowler, a more high-profile prospect acquisition in last summer’s Sonny Gray blockbuster with the Yankees, but he now looks like a corner option for the foreseeable future. Oakland added Laureano in a trade that barely went noticed last November, sending minor league righty Brandon Bailey to the Astros in return. Since debuting, though, Laureano has posted a .295/.364/.486 batting line with terrific center field defense and a perfect seven steals in seven attempts. A’s EVP Billy Beane tells Slusser that the “job is [Laureano’s],” adding that the 24-year-old “has played that position just about as well as anyone we’ve ever had here.”

Rangers Purchase Contract Of Brandon Mann

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The Rangers announced today that they have selected the contract of lefty Brandon Mann. He’ll join the team for its final series.

Mann, 34, has already had a season to remember, having debuted in the majors after first becoming a professional way back in 2002. Now, he’ll get a chance to suit up in Seattle, not far from where he grew up.

Though he was not terribly effective in his six MLB appearances this year, Mann got the job done at Triple-A. Over 52 1/3 frames in 36 appearances, he posted a 2.41 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9.

Liam Hendriks Hires MVP Sports Group

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Athletics right-hander Liam Hendriks has hired new representation, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). He’ll be moving to the MVP Sports Group.

Earlier this year, Hendriks was outrighted off of the A’s 40-man roster. The 29-year-old elected to stick around, rather than giving up the balance of his $1.9MM salary.

That proved a wise choice, finances aside, as he ultimately got a call back after some time at Triple-A. In fact, Hendriks was quite dominant in his 25 1/3 frames at the highest level of the minors, running a ridiculous 43:4 K/BB ratio.

Since coughing up two earned in his first game back in the big leagues, Hendriks has been lights-out. He has now thrown 10 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings, with nine strikeouts against two walks. Over that stretch, he has allowed only five hits while inducing 15 grounders.

In the course of that run, Hendriks has also come to occupy an “opener” role for the Oakland organization. The Aussie has officially now made seven starts, his first since way back in 2014, though he has only once stayed for more than an inning.

Hendriks is eligible for arbitration again this winter. While it once seemed entirely unlikely he’d be tendered a contract, that now seems to be an easy call — particularly with Hendriks showing a velocity bump after some early-season injury issues.

That means that Hendriks will be one of the first players to test the arb market with an opener’s resume, though his is of relatively short duration. Notably, too, he will remain under team control for an additional season. Though he opened the present campaign with 4.038 years of MLB service, the lengthy stint in the minors will leave him shy of five full years.

NL West Rumors: D-Backs, Pence, CarGo, Galvis

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Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic breaks down the tough choices facing the Diamondbacks this winter. Taking another crack at contention would mean filling several needs. It’d also come with some clear risks. As Piecoro well explains: “For years, the Diamondbacks have had just enough talent to want to keep pushing forward, but not enough to seriously contend for a World Series. And, it seems, each time they’ve tried to load up, they’ve only set themselves back further from a possible championship.” It’s a really interesting initial look at the complicated situation, including some takes from rival executives from around the game.

More from the NL West:

  • The Giants are expected to wish a fond farewell this weekend to outfielder Hunter Pence, as Kerry Crowley of The Mercury News writes. He’ll get a prominent place on the lineup card, but that’s not solely honorary. Pence has turned in a bit of a late charge, after all, and the Giants still have a consolation prize (keeping the rival Dodgers from a division title) to play for. So, is this the end for Pence? That still seems unclear. He says he’ll “treat it just like I treat every game. You never know your whole career even when you’re young, it could be your last game.”
  • It could soon also be the end of the line for Carlos Gonzalez with the Rockies, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post recently explored. Understandably, the veteran outfielder is focused on finishing out what could be a special season for the Colorado organization. He has been getting less opportunities of late, which seems likely to be the prelude to a departure via free agency this winter. Whether or not that’ll come to pass, CarGo (much like Pence) says he’ll continue to “try to take advantage every night” of the chance to suit up. Soon to turn 33, Gonzalez carries a .276/.329/.463 slash line through 489 plate appearances — good for an approximately league-average overall output once adjusted for park effects and league context.
  • Finally, we’ll turn to yet another pending free agent. While the Padres’ youth movement is the primary hope for the franchise, the team still needs to fill roles. That could conceivably lead to a reunion with shortstop Freddy Galvis. As AJ Cassavell of MLB.com writes, Galvis has been on a tear at the plate to end the season. And it seems he has generally left a good impression. While fans are pining for Fernando Tatis Jr., skipper Andy Green notes that there are reasons to like the idea of a return for Galvis. Tatis, after all, still has some seasoning left. That leave room at short to open the year, at least, in addition to the possibility that Galvis “could bounce around,” as Green put it. Of course, the veteran infielder is also likely to test the waters to see whether he can pull down more money or a better opportunity elsewhere. He’ll be among several glove-first veterans hitting the open market.

Federal Grand Jury Probing MLB Signings In Latin America

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A grand jury has been convened as part of a federal investigation into Latin American amateur signings by Major League Baseball clubs, according to a report from Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. It’s a notable development in a segment of the baseball labor market long noted for its shadowy dealings.

Full details are not yet known. As Passan explains in this must-read article, however, the potential scope of the investigation is vast. After all, ballplayers from Latin American nations — in particular, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Cuba — make up a significant portion of the game’s talent base. For decades, they have signed as teenagers under an obscure, largely unregulated system.

So-called “buscones” — alternatively framed as “trainers” or “finders” of young talent — play a notable role in the scheme. Characterizing them, though, quickly becomes complicated: root cause or symptom of systematic issues? scourge or part of the solution? There are differing perspectives, both on the system as a whole and the individuals involved.

A recently initiated MLB clean-up effort notably seeks to bring buscones into the process more formally. Of course, they don’t exist in a vacuum. The broad grey area in which they interact with representatives of MLB organizations and player agents is where the business of Latin American baseball occurs. Millions upon millions of dollars change hands in that foggy world, with some of the game’s brightest future stars emerging in one of thirty uniforms.

So, where’s the focus here? Passan writes that the specific “target of the inquiry” is not yet fully certain. But it seems that the 2015 signing of Cuban infielder Hector Olivera by the Dodgers is at least one area of interest, with a “former Atlanta Braves official” (the organization acquired Olivera later that year) and certain unnamed “people involved with the signing” receiving subpoenas.

Olivera received a hefty $28MM signing bonus as part of a $62.5MM total guarantee. Of course, he was excluded from the much more restricting parameters that govern the signings of younger players. The rules — as recently amended — create a hard cap on the amount of total bonuses each MLB team can dole out in a given year.

Whether the Olivera situation is of singular interest or just one element of the inquiry isn’t quite clear. But there’s little question that the duration and breadth of the Latin American signing game offers quite a few more potential targets to investigate. An array of club officials and agency personnel have certainly been involved over the years, with untold numbers of middle men and peripheral figures in addition to the well-known buscones.

Even more broadly, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have undeniable roles in all of this. Whether foreign governmental officials could be involved, potentially raising the stakes, isn’t know, though Passan notes that the matter involves Justice Department attorneys who prosecute actions under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

It’s not yet known how the investigation will proceed, where it will reach, and what the potential and actual consequences will be. As Passan writes, though, it has “spooked” the “top officials on both sides” — that is, the league and the union. And it’s amply arguable that a full accounting of MLB’s involvement in Latin America is warranted.

NL East Notes: Anibal, Braves’ Roster, Kapler, Lagares

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After a resurgent season in the Braves’ rotation, right-hander Anibal Sanchez tells Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he hopes to continue playing but hasn’t thought much about his future just yet. Sanchez, like many others, went through a lengthy free-agent odyssey last offseason and ultimately settled for a non-guaranteed deal with the Twins before being cut loose and signing a minor league deal with Atlanta. The 34-year-old adds that when he does eventually retire, he hopes to embark on a coaching career after taking a few years to spend time with his family. Sanchez has been arguably baseball’s best bargain, helping to a Braves’ staff with 130 2/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball, 8.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 44.7 percent ground-ball rate.

More from the division…

  • Dansby Swanson’s partially torn ligament in his left hand has opened the door for either Ryan Flaherty or Adam Duvall to make the Braves’ NLDS roster, Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes. Were Swanson healthy, then Charlie Culberson would be viewed as an important bench piece; however, if Swanson ruled unable to participate in the Division Series after being evaluated this weekend, Culberson would  step into the team’s starting shortstop role. Duvall has hit terribly since being acquired from the Reds prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, but he’d give the team an extra right-handed bat on a bench that would otherwise be stacked with lefties. Bowman notes that both Flaherty and Duvall could get a few starts in the final few games — both played today — as the team evaluates its options.
  • The Phillies’ season is ending in a veritable free fall, but GM Matt Klentak recently gave skipper Gabe Kapler a vote of confidence. Kapler, however, spoke to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia about his need to improve as a manager and a leader in 2019 and beyond, bluntly stating that he has “a lot of room to grow and improve.” To that end, Kapler is taking the unorthodox step of sending out an anonymous survey to the team’s coaches and others in the organization to evaluate his performance. Kapler candidly suggests that Phillies leadership “fell short” in preparing young players for the rigors of competing in a pennant chase, highlighting that as one of many areas the organization needs to improve moving forward.
  • Injured Mets outfielder Juan Lagares participated in sprinting exercises Thursday for the first time since tearing a plantar plate in his left foot back in May, writes Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. He’s aiming to play in the Dominican Winter League to help prep for the 2019 season. Lagares, considered one of the game’s premier defensive outfielders, has hit just .258/.299/.366 through a mere 961 plate appearances since signing a contract extension that guaranteed him $23MM back in April 2015. Of course, he’s totaled 29 Defensive Runs Saved in barely over 2,000 innings in that time, which speaks to his excellence with the glove. Lagares has been an oft-mentioned trade candidate in recent years, though with $9.5MM still guaranteed on that deal ($9MM 2019 salary plus a $500K buyout on a $9.5MM option for 2020), it’s tough to imagine much demand in him this offseason, barring some salary relief.

Williams: Reds Have Increased Spending Capability This Offseason

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The Reds aren’t known as big-time players in free agency, but president of baseball operations Dick Williams tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he expects to have “significantly” more spending capacity than he’s had in previous offseasons, though he added, “It still only goes so far, unfortunately.”

Cincinnati’s offseason spending over the past two years has checked in around a total of $15MM, with modest two-year commitments being made to David Hernandez ($5MM total) and Jared Hughes ($4.5MM), plus one-year pacts for Drew Storen ($3MM), Scott Feldman ($2.3MM) and Yovani Gallardo ($750K). In fact, the Reds haven’t spent more than $5.5MM on a free agent since signing Ryan Ludwick (two years, $15MM) and Jonathan Broxton (three years, $21MM) in the 2012-13 offseason under former general manager Walt Jocketty.

Fay notes that starting pitching is, unsurprisingly, going to be Cincinnati’s top target this winter, but it doesn’t seem plausible that they’d play for the most in-demand names available; Clayton Kershaw (if and when he opts out), Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel are among the headliners on the open market this season. Each figures to be far too pricey for a Reds team that will still have budgetary restrictions to which it’ll need to adhere.

[Related: Cincinnati Reds depth chart and payroll info]

In fact, it’s at least somewhat surprising to hear that the Reds have the means to significantly bolster their spending. The team is facing an attendance drop, per the figures tallied at Baseball-Reference (1.837 million in 2017, 1.542 million in 2018), and there are no significant contracts coming off the books this winter. To the contrary, there’s been some speculation of an extension for Scooter Gennett, which would come with a pay raise, and their arbitration class should yield raises for Anthony DeSclafani, Scott Schebler, Michael Lorenzen, Billy Hamilton, Gennett (if he is not extended) and closer Raisel Iglesias (assuming he opts into arbitration this winter, as is his contractual right).

However, the Reds are at last seeing a light at the end of the tunnel in terms of Homer Bailey’s albatross contract, which expires following the 2019 season (after he’s earned a $23MM salary and been paid a $7MM buyout on his 2020 option). That contract’s expiration could make the club more amenable to adding some modest multi-year commitments to the books in an effort to supplement an increasingly intriguing core of position players that includes Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Jose Peraza, Tucker Barnhart, Gennett and stalwart Joey Votto, to say nothing of one of the game’s top prospects in Nick Senzel.

The Reds will need to address the rotation aggressively if they have any hope of competing next year. Many of the arms the team has acquired over the course of its rebuild have not yet panned out (e.g. Brandon Finnegan, Rookie Davis, Cody Reed, John Lamb), while drafted/developed prospects like Robert Stephenson, Tyler Mahle and Sal Romano have also struggled. Heading into next season, DeSclafani and Luis Castillo seem the best bets to turn in average or better seasons, though certainly the Reds have a number of young internal options who could yet emerge.

Still, the group as a whole lacks certainty, and to that end, Fay writes that he expects Williams & Co. to make a run at re-signing Matt Harvey, whose career rebounded after being traded to Cincinnati (128 innings, 4.50 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 4.14 xFIP). The free-agent market has a fair number of other serviceable arms and upside plays in its second and third tiers (full list), and The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans tweeted recently that Williams said the team will consider Asia more than in the past. The Reds, of course, watched the division-rival Cardinals strike gold on righty Miles Mikolas in his return from Japan, and it’s worth noting that there have been rumors of 27-year-old Seibu Lions lefty Yusei Kikuchi being posted for Major League teams this winter as well.

It’s far too early to forecast specific targets for the Reds, but it’s nonetheless notable that the organization’s top decision-maker has expressed confidence in his ability to spend more aggressively as the team’s long-term lineup begins to come into clearer focus.

AL East Notes: Sabathia, Sale, Yankees Pen, Showalter

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Yankees lefty C.C. Sabathia cost himself a $500K bonus during today’s matchup against the Rays after he was ejected for plunking catcher Jesus Sucre in retaliatory fashion.  As Steve Gardner of the USA Today details, Sabathia’s contract included incentive bonuses in the amount of $500K for eclipsing each of the 155, 165, 175, and 185 inning plateaus.  As it stood, Sabathia, who sat at 54 pitches in the 6th inning of game in which the Yankees led 11-0, was a near sure bet to hit the first mark, standing just six outs from the total at the time of the incident, though later he confessed ignorance regarding the matter in a soirée with reporters. The 38-year-old, who’s earned upwards of $250MM in his MLB career, turned in another solid campaign for the Bombers this season, comfortably outperforming his peripheral marks (4.22 FIP, 4.28 SIERA) for the third consecutive year on the way to 3.77 ERA, all while posting his highest strikeout rate since 2012.  Sabathia has already expressed a desire to pitch next season, and figures to be in line for a similar (one year, $10MM) deal to the one he inked before the ’18 campaign, should he choose to continue.

In other news from around the division…

  • Chris Sale’s radar gun readings are sounding alarm bells in Boston, where the left-hander sat at a career low 90.1 MPH with his fastball in Wednesday’s outing against the Orioles, the fourth in a series of diminished-velocity starts since his return from the DL after a bout with left shoulder inflammation.  For his part, Sale insists that a balky shoulder is not to blame, placing much of the onus on an out-of-sync lower body, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explains in an information-packed overview of the situation.  As Speier notes, Sale’s extension toward home plate has lessened a bit since his return from the disabled list, and is a good deal lower than the 6.19 ft average he established during his lights-out run of mid-summer.  A correlation between the extension figures and Sale’s overall performance is somewhat murky, though it’s certainly a mark worth monitoring as the Red Sox enter the 2018 postseason on the heels of their most successful campaign in franchise history.  Sale, whose $13.5MM option for 2019 will almost certainly be picked up before he hits Free Agency the following offseason, appears to have capped off a sensational 2018 campaign that saw the hurler post otherworldly marks across the board – his 1.97 FIP and 48 FIP- each rank in the top three in AL history during the live-ball era, and his 13.5 K/9 stands as the best total for a starter (min. 150 IP) since stats were first compiled in 1871.
  • Marc Carig of the The Athletic dives deep into the Yankees bullpen and the manner in which it’s deployed in a fabulously detailed piece that’s unquestionably a must-read for all Pinstripe fanatics.  The Yankee pen of ’18 ranks, per fWAR and K/9, as the best in baseball history, a fact that likely comes as little surprise to anyone who’s followed the incredible collection of talent assembled in the unit over the last few seasons.  Notably, Carig also canvasses the depths to which the unit is influenced by new analytics, making particular mention of rookie manager Aaron Boone’s number-crunching preferences: Boone, it seems, has bucked convention by eschewing previous batter/pitcher history and platoon advantages in favor of new-wave proprietary data based primarily on pitch types, spin rates, and recent velocity totals while aiming to deploy the best possible arm for the situation.  Though the Bombers have a firmly entrenched reputation as one of the league’s most data-hungry franchises, it no doubt helps to feature a cavalcade of relievers capable of setting down batters from both sides at almost any point throughout the game.
  • Orioles manager Buck Showalter, whose contract is set to expire at the end of a disastrous 2018 campaign, addressed his future status for the first time in an interview with reporters (link via Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com), praising the team for “how good they’ve been” and claiming that the uncertainty regarding his future job status is “[not that] difficult.”  Showalter, who led the club through a series of overachieving campaigns in the middle part of the decade, sports a 668-681 record with the O’s since his start in 2010, and figures to be in high demand this offseason should the club decide to move on.

Pirates To Recall Jung Ho Kang This Weekend

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6:07 PM: The Pirates have officially announced that Kang will return for tomorrow’s game against Cincinnati.

4:53 PM: Pirates third baseman/shortstop Jung Ho Kang is likely set to return to the team this weekend after a near two-year hiatus, according to reports from Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic (Twitter link).

Kang, 31, finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year balloting after a banner 2015 season with the Buccos, but has been mired in a litany of legal and injury troubles since the end of the 2016 campaign.  Following that season, the second straight in which Kang flourished offensively for the Pirates, posting a 132 wRC+ despite a BABIP drop of nearly 70 points from the season prior, he was arrested on his third DUI charge in his native Korea, which left him stranded in the country, unable to secure the work visa necessary to play in the U.S.  When he finally arrived stateside earlier this season, Kang was hampered by a nagging wrist injury that truncated his rehab and made a return to the Pirates increasingly unlikely, though he had resumed the rehabilitation process in recent weeks.

The five-time KBO All-Star came to the U.S. with little fanfare after the 2014 season, inking a measly four-year, $11MM deal with Pittsburgh in January of 2015.  He quickly put questions to rest, slashing .287/.355/.461 across 126 games in his rookie campaign and providing loads of surplus value to a mid-market Pirate club in need of a run-producing threat.  Kang’s glove at shortstop graded out mostly average in his half-season of time there, but the team seemed to prefer him at the hot corner, where in 2016 he entrenched himself as one of the league’s top offensive performers at the position, upping his walk totals and making hard contact nearly 40% of the time.

Kang’s future, at this point, is shrouded mostly in doubt – on the one hand, a healthy Kang – whose $5.5MM option is a certain bargain in a context-empty reality – stripped of rust would be a boon to any team’s lineup, at least in the short-term.  On the other, his age (32 in April), drunken-driving convictions (as well as an uncharged sexual assault allegation two years ago), and time away from the game will almost certainly keep most GMs at arm’s length, and the $250K buyout in his current deal may make Pittsburgh’s eventual choice an easy one.

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