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NL West Rumors: D-Backs, Pence, CarGo, Galvis

By Jeff Todd | September 28, 2018 at 11:08am CDT

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic breaks down the tough choices facing the Diamondbacks this winter. Taking another crack at contention would mean filling several needs. It’d also come with some clear risks. As Piecoro well explains: “For years, the Diamondbacks have had just enough talent to want to keep pushing forward, but not enough to seriously contend for a World Series. And, it seems, each time they’ve tried to load up, they’ve only set themselves back further from a possible championship.” It’s a really interesting initial look at the complicated situation, including some takes from rival executives from around the game.

Federal Grand Jury Probing MLB Signings In Latin America

By Jeff Todd | September 28, 2018 at 8:52am CDT

A grand jury has been convened as part of a federal investigation into Latin American amateur signings by Major League Baseball clubs, according to a report from Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. It’s a notable development in a segment of the baseball labor market long noted for its shadowy dealings.

Full details are not yet known. As Passan explains in this must-read article, however, the potential scope of the investigation is vast. After all, ballplayers from Latin American nations — in particular, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Cuba — make up a significant portion of the game’s talent base. For decades, they have signed as teenagers under an obscure, largely unregulated system.

So-called “buscones” — alternatively framed as “trainers” or “finders” of young talent — play a notable role in the scheme. Characterizing them, though, quickly becomes complicated: root cause or symptom of systematic issues? scourge or part of the solution? There are differing perspectives, both on the system as a whole and the individuals involved.

A recently initiated MLB clean-up effort notably seeks to bring buscones into the process more formally. Of course, they don’t exist in a vacuum. The broad grey area in which they interact with representatives of MLB organizations and player agents is where the business of Latin American baseball occurs. Millions upon millions of dollars change hands in that foggy world, with some of the game’s brightest future stars emerging in one of thirty uniforms.

So, where’s the focus here? Passan writes that the specific “target of the inquiry” is not yet fully certain. But it seems that the 2015 signing of Cuban infielder Hector Olivera by the Dodgers is at least one area of interest, with a “former Atlanta Braves official” (the organization acquired Olivera later that year) and certain unnamed “people involved with the signing” receiving subpoenas.

Olivera received a hefty $28MM signing bonus as part of a $62.5MM total guarantee. Of course, he was excluded from the much more restricting parameters that govern the signings of younger players. The rules — as recently amended — create a hard cap on the amount of total bonuses each MLB team can dole out in a given year.

Whether the Olivera situation is of singular interest or just one element of the inquiry isn’t quite clear. But there’s little question that the duration and breadth of the Latin American signing game offers quite a few more potential targets to investigate. An array of club officials and agency personnel have certainly been involved over the years, with untold numbers of middle men and peripheral figures in addition to the well-known buscones.

Even more broadly, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have undeniable roles in all of this. Whether foreign governmental officials could be involved, potentially raising the stakes, isn’t know, though Passan notes that the matter involves Justice Department attorneys who prosecute actions under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

It’s not yet known how the investigation will proceed, where it will reach, and what the potential and actual consequences will be. As Passan writes, though, it has “spooked” the “top officials on both sides” — that is, the league and the union. And it’s amply arguable that a full accounting of MLB’s involvement in Latin America is warranted.

NL East Notes: Anibal, Braves’ Roster, Kapler, Lagares

By Steve Adams | September 27, 2018 at 11:03pm CDT

After a resurgent season in the Braves’ rotation, right-hander Anibal Sanchez tells Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he hopes to continue playing but hasn’t thought much about his future just yet. Sanchez, like many others, went through a lengthy free-agent odyssey last offseason and ultimately settled for a non-guaranteed deal with the Twins before being cut loose and signing a minor league deal with Atlanta. The 34-year-old adds that when he does eventually retire, he hopes to embark on a coaching career after taking a few years to spend time with his family. Sanchez has been arguably baseball’s best bargain, helping to a Braves’ staff with 130 2/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball, 8.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 44.7 percent ground-ball rate.

Williams: Reds Have Increased Spending Capability This Offseason

By Steve Adams | September 27, 2018 at 9:20pm CDT

The Reds aren’t known as big-time players in free agency, but president of baseball operations Dick Williams tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he expects to have “significantly” more spending capacity than he’s had in previous offseasons, though he added, “It still only goes so far, unfortunately.”

Cincinnati’s offseason spending over the past two years has checked in around a total of $15MM, with modest two-year commitments being made to David Hernandez ($5MM total) and Jared Hughes ($4.5MM), plus one-year pacts for Drew Storen ($3MM), Scott Feldman ($2.3MM) and Yovani Gallardo ($750K). In fact, the Reds haven’t spent more than $5.5MM on a free agent since signing Ryan Ludwick (two years, $15MM) and Jonathan Broxton (three years, $21MM) in the 2012-13 offseason under former general manager Walt Jocketty.

Fay notes that starting pitching is, unsurprisingly, going to be Cincinnati’s top target this winter, but it doesn’t seem plausible that they’d play for the most in-demand names available; Clayton Kershaw (if and when he opts out), Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel are among the headliners on the open market this season. Each figures to be far too pricey for a Reds team that will still have budgetary restrictions to which it’ll need to adhere.

[Related: Cincinnati Reds depth chart and payroll info]

In fact, it’s at least somewhat surprising to hear that the Reds have the means to significantly bolster their spending. The team is facing an attendance drop, per the figures tallied at Baseball-Reference (1.837 million in 2017, 1.542 million in 2018), and there are no significant contracts coming off the books this winter. To the contrary, there’s been some speculation of an extension for Scooter Gennett, which would come with a pay raise, and their arbitration class should yield raises for Anthony DeSclafani, Scott Schebler, Michael Lorenzen, Billy Hamilton, Gennett (if he is not extended) and closer Raisel Iglesias (assuming he opts into arbitration this winter, as is his contractual right).

However, the Reds are at last seeing a light at the end of the tunnel in terms of Homer Bailey’s albatross contract, which expires following the 2019 season (after he’s earned a $23MM salary and been paid a $7MM buyout on his 2020 option). That contract’s expiration could make the club more amenable to adding some modest multi-year commitments to the books in an effort to supplement an increasingly intriguing core of position players that includes Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Jose Peraza, Tucker Barnhart, Gennett and stalwart Joey Votto, to say nothing of one of the game’s top prospects in Nick Senzel.

The Reds will need to address the rotation aggressively if they have any hope of competing next year. Many of the arms the team has acquired over the course of its rebuild have not yet panned out (e.g. Brandon Finnegan, Rookie Davis, Cody Reed, John Lamb), while drafted/developed prospects like Robert Stephenson, Tyler Mahle and Sal Romano have also struggled. Heading into next season, DeSclafani and Luis Castillo seem the best bets to turn in average or better seasons, though certainly the Reds have a number of young internal options who could yet emerge.

Still, the group as a whole lacks certainty, and to that end, Fay writes that he expects Williams & Co. to make a run at re-signing Matt Harvey, whose career rebounded after being traded to Cincinnati (128 innings, 4.50 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 4.14 xFIP). The free-agent market has a fair number of other serviceable arms and upside plays in its second and third tiers (full list), and The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans tweeted recently that Williams said the team will consider Asia more than in the past. The Reds, of course, watched the division-rival Cardinals strike gold on righty Miles Mikolas in his return from Japan, and it’s worth noting that there have been rumors of 27-year-old Seibu Lions lefty Yusei Kikuchi being posted for Major League teams this winter as well.

It’s far too early to forecast specific targets for the Reds, but it’s nonetheless notable that the organization’s top decision-maker has expressed confidence in his ability to spend more aggressively as the team’s long-term lineup begins to come into clearer focus.

AL East Notes: Sabathia, Sale, Yankees Pen, Showalter

By Ty Bradley | September 27, 2018 at 7:30pm CDT

Yankees lefty C.C. Sabathia cost himself a $500K bonus during today’s matchup against the Rays after he was ejected for plunking catcher Jesus Sucre in retaliatory fashion. As Steve Gardner of the USA Today details, Sabathia’s contract included incentive bonuses in the amount of $500K for eclipsing each of the 155, 165, 175, and 185 inning plateaus. As it stood, Sabathia, who sat at 54 pitches in the 6th inning of game in which the Yankees led 11-0, was a near sure bet to hit the first mark, standing just six outs from the total at the time of the incident, though later he confessed ignorance regarding the matter in a soirée with reporters. The 38-year-old, who’s earned upwards of $250MM in his MLB career, turned in another solid campaign for the Bombers this season, comfortably outperforming his peripheral marks (4.22 FIP, 4.28 SIERA) for the third consecutive year on the way to 3.77 ERA, all while posting his highest strikeout rate since 2012. Sabathia has already expressed a desire to pitch next season, and figures to be in line for a similar (one year, $10MM) deal to the one he inked before the ’18 campaign, should he choose to continue.

In other news from around the division…

Chris Sale’s radar gun readings are sounding alarm bells in Boston, where the left-hander sat at a career low 90.1 MPH with his fastball in Wednesday’s outing against the Orioles, the fourth in a series of diminished-velocity starts since his return from the DL after a bout with left shoulder inflammation. For his part, Sale insists that a balky shoulder is not to blame, placing much of the onus on an out-of-sync lower body, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explains in an information-packed overview of the situation. As Speier notes, Sale’s extension toward home plate has lessened a bit since his return from the disabled list, and is a good deal lower than the 6.19 ft average he established during his lights-out run of mid-summer. A correlation between the extension figures and Sale’s overall performance is somewhat murky, though it’s certainly a mark worth monitoring as the Red Sox enter the 2018 postseason on the heels of their most successful campaign in franchise history. Sale, whose $13.5MM option for 2019 will almost certainly be picked up before he hits Free Agency the following offseason, appears to have capped off a sensational 2018 campaign that saw the hurler post otherworldly marks across the board – his 1.97 FIP and 48 FIP- each rank in the top three in AL history during the live-ball era, and his 13.5 K/9 stands as the best total for a starter (min. 150 IP) since stats were first compiled in 1871.
Marc Carig of the The Athletic dives deep into the Yankees bullpen and the manner in which it’s deployed in a fabulously detailed piece that’s unquestionably a must-read for all Pinstripe fanatics. The Yankee pen of ’18 ranks, per fWAR and K/9, as the best in baseball history, a fact that likely comes as little surprise to anyone who’s followed the incredible collection of talent assembled in the unit over the last few seasons. Notably, Carig also canvasses the depths to which the unit is influenced by new analytics, making particular mention of rookie manager Aaron Boone’s number-crunching preferences: Boone, it seems, has bucked convention by eschewing previous batter/pitcher history and platoon advantages in favor of new-wave proprietary data based primarily on pitch types, spin rates, and recent velocity totals while aiming to deploy the best possible arm for the situation. Though the Bombers have a firmly entrenched reputation as one of the league’s most data-hungry franchises, it no doubt helps to feature a cavalcade of relievers capable of setting down batters from both sides at almost any point throughout the game.
Orioles manager Buck Showalter, whose contract is set to expire at the end of a disastrous 2018 campaign, addressed his future status for the first time in an interview with reporters (link via Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com), praising the team for “how good they’ve been” and claiming that the uncertainty regarding his future job status is “[not that] difficult.” Showalter, who led the club through a series of overachieving campaigns in the middle part of the decade, sports a 668-681 record with the O’s since his start in 2010, and figures to be in high demand this offseason should the club decide to move on.

Pirates To Recall Jung Ho Kang This Weekend

By Ty Bradley | September 27, 2018 at 4:53pm CDT

6:07 PM: The Pirates have officially announced that Kang will return for tomorrow’s game against Cincinnati.

4:53 PM: Pirates third baseman/shortstop Jung Ho Kang is likely set to return to the team this weekend after a near two-year hiatus, according to reports from Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic (Twitter link).

Kang, 31, finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year balloting after a banner 2015 season with the Buccos, but has been mired in a litany of legal and injury troubles since the end of the 2016 campaign. Following that season, the second straight in which Kang flourished offensively for the Pirates, posting a 132 wRC+ despite a BABIP drop of nearly 70 points from the season prior, he was arrested on his third DUI charge in his native Korea, which left him stranded in the country, unable to secure the work visa necessary to play in the U.S. When he finally arrived stateside earlier this season, Kang was hampered by a nagging wrist injury that truncated his rehab and made a return to the Pirates increasingly unlikely, though he had resumed the rehabilitation process in recent weeks.

The five-time KBO All-Star came to the U.S. with little fanfare after the 2014 season, inking a measly four-year, $11MM deal with Pittsburgh in January of 2015. He quickly put questions to rest, slashing .287/.355/.461 across 126 games in his rookie campaign and providing loads of surplus value to a mid-market Pirate club in need of a run-producing threat. Kang’s glove at shortstop graded out mostly average in his half-season of time there, but the team seemed to prefer him at the hot corner, where in 2016 he entrenched himself as one of the league’s top offensive performers at the position, upping his walk totals and making hard contact nearly 40% of the time.

Kang’s future, at this point, is shrouded mostly in doubt – on the one hand, a healthy Kang – whose $5.5MM option is a certain bargain in a context-empty reality – stripped of rust would be a boon to any team’s lineup, at least in the short-term. On the other, his age (32 in April), drunken-driving convictions (as well as an uncharged sexual assault allegation two years ago), and time away from the game will almost certainly keep most GMs at arm’s length, and the $250K buyout in his current deal may make Pittsburgh’s eventual choice an easy one.

MLBTR Chat Transcript: 9/27/18

By Jeff Todd | September 27, 2018 at 1:54pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.

East Notes: Rendon, deGrom, Wendle, Rays Stadium

By Jeff Todd | September 27, 2018 at 1:25pm CDT

As I noted in discussing him recently as an extension candidate, Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon remains an underappreciated star despite turning in another fantastic effort in 2018. That’s largely a reflection of his own preferences, of course, so it’s fascinating to see Rendon open up a bit in a chat with Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post. He describes himself as a lover of the game who is simply “not a fan of everyone treating you different because you play a sport” and only “want[s] to be normal.” (Indeed, he only took this interview to promote the Nats’ youth academy.) That’s not to say that Rendon isn’t interested in a lengthy career, but he clearly seems more concerned with the upbringing of a young family than maximizing earnings. He emphasized, too, that he’s not interested in turning over his professional direction to agent Scott Boras. What that all means for the future isn’t yet clear — from the team’s perspective, one official calls Rendon “an enigma” — but it’s undeniably relevant. Rendon is eligible for arbitration one final time this winter.

The article is essential reading for fans of the Nationals — or of other teams who wonder whether they might one day hope to cheer for the 28-year-old. In other chatter from the game’s eastern divisions …

Speaking of hypothetical extension candidates, there aren’t many more prominent targets than Mets ace Jacob deGrom, who just wrapped up a season for the ages. Andy Martino of SNY.tv examines the situation, noting that the club will first need to resolve its front office before deciding how to proceed. Certainly, it still seems possible that a new contract or a trade could make sense, though it’s also conceivable that the Mets will simply work out an arbitration price. As for deGrom, Martino writes that he “wants to both win and be paid fair market value.” Of course, determining a market price is an interesting proposition, especially since we haven’t seen a pitcher of this quality in quite this contractual situation (two remaining control years) ink an extension in some time. Those interested in considering some recent major contracts can click here to find a list of starters who have signed extensions of $75MM or more in guaranteed money.
The Rays obviously saw something to like in infielder Joey Wendle when they acquired him over the winter, but as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, even they were surprised by his breakout showing in 2018. Senior VP Chaim Bloom explains that Wendle has been “even better than we expected” in most areas — in particular, at the plate — such that “the whole thing has been more than we could have asked for.” That seems fair to say, given that Wendle was acquired for a song and has been among the game’s best rookie performers (as we recently discussed here). It’s an interesting piece on a notable player that includes some quotes from some of Wendle’s former teammates in the A’s organization.
In other Rays news, also via Topkin, principal owner Stuart Sternberg gave a bit of an update on the team’s stadium-building plans. The initial announcement, of course, wasn’t quite like the definitive ones we’ve seen from some other clubs in recent years. Presenting a vision was presumably aimed at the key aspect of the project that needs to be determined: funding. Sternberg says the club anticipates paying “well north” of a $150MM figure he has previously suggested. But the park project is estimated at $892MM, so there’s a gulf still to be bridged. In addition to working with municipalities, Sternberg says “corporate support is going to be paramount to all of this and that is still a work in progress as well.” The hope seemingly remains to resolve a direction by the end of the calendar year.

MLBTR Poll: Likelihood Of Bryce Harper Returning To Nationals

By Jeff Todd | September 27, 2018 at 11:51am CDT

Last night, Bryce Harper and the Nationals played their final home game in a lost season. As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes, it was somewhat anticlimactic — and, for the same reason, perhaps appropriate for a club that has fallen well short of expectations.

To this point, both Harper and the Nats have expressed ample mutual admiration. But there’s no particular reason to think that the sides will line up on a late-breaking extension to keep Harper from reaching free agency. While that can’t be ruled out entirely, it seems far likelier that the 25-year-old will be issued, and will then decline, a qualifying offer.

Of course, the relationship could be re-started from the open market. Harper clearly seems open to considering a return, at least, and the team surely isn’t eager to part with a franchise-altering superstar. At the same time, practicalities — including the allure of other teams (and contract offers), on the one hand, and a ready-made replacement outfield unit in DC, on the other — could well make this an opportune moment for both sides to wish the other a fond farewell.

There’s time yet to consider Harper’s place in the broader market, including contract valuation and the best potential suitors. We’ll be assessing that closely over the coming months. For now, it seems a more appropriate time to gauge the sense of MLBTR readers on a simpler question — Harper’s likelihood of returning to the Nats — in a thoroughly unscientific manner. How would you characterize the situation as the ’18 campaign draws to a close?

(Link for app users.)

Klentak: Phillies To Pursue “Significant Changes” This Winter

By Jeff Todd | September 27, 2018 at 10:38am CDT

With the Phillies continuing their late-season free-fall, GM Matt Klentak held an interesting Q&A with reporters including Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Despite improvements, Klentak says, “significant changes are necessary.”

That conclusion surely sets the stage for a fascinating, high-stakes winter in Philly. The organization has long been expected to be a major factor in the upcoming market. Having made some notable acquisitions last winter and competed for much of the 2018 season, the stakes are raised for a productive offseason.

Of course, winning the hot stove season isn’t a goal unto itself, so Klentak and company are surely taking a hard look at just how to approach the opportunities to come. As he puts it, “we all need to fight the narrative that it’s a simple fix.”

That could be read as a plea for media and fans not to fixate on some of the biggest names available this winter. It’s also perhaps an acknowledgment that the roster comes with some challenges — some that have arisen largely by happenstance, others relating to decisions made recently by the organization. At the same time, it’s loaded with interesting talent that makes near-term competitiveness seem quite achievable.

For now, of course, Klentak isn’t getting into all of the details or expounding upon the team’s specific hopes in the roster-building department. He did note that the organization will be looking to find the change it hopes for not only through the free-agent market, but also in exploring trades and projecting internal improvements.

In that regard, it’s at least as interesting to contemplate some of Klentak’s comments regarding the season that’s now drawing to a close. As he rightly suggests, the club’s ultimate middle-of-the-road outcomes haven’t strayed far from pre-season expectations. While there was surely a missed opportunity here, given the position the club was in as of mid-August, the organization took its shot at the trade deadline and there’s still clear evidence of progress.

There are also lessons to be drawn from what Klentak calls “a good year for us to experiment.” Viewed from that angle, perhaps some refinement in approach — roster construction included — is slated for assessment and implementation. For instance, the team’s defensive alignment has produced some worrying outcomes. Making the necessary tweaks will, as noted above, not necessarily simply be a matter of acquiring high-end new players.

If that all portends a less-than-straightforward upcoming offseason, well, that seems to have been contemplated in advance. “I think in order to take this organization where it needs to go we had to have a year like this, where we pushed the envelope,” Klentak says.

Having done so, the focus now shifts: from gathering talent, and trying out new ways of deploying it, to achieving the desired bottom-line results. It’s unclear as yet how the Phils will set about re-working their roster to accomplish that, but the possibilities are abundant.

What is clear is that Klentak will continue to head up the baseball operations department for his fourth season, while Gabe Kapler will remain at the helm of the dugout. It’ll certainly be fascinating to see what direction the club takes this winter and how it translates onto the field in 2019.

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