Fallout From The J.T. Realmuto Trade
Following a merciful coda to the offseason’s most protracted soap opera – a fine Philly offer, agreed upon Thursday, that finally plucked former Marlin catcher J.T. Realmuto from the clutches of South Beach – each of the oft-snubbed clubs offered their final say.
We’ll start in Atlanta, in whose court the Realmuto ball seemed to linger longest – indeed, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the team needed only to surrender two from the group of Austin Riley, Cristian Pache, and one top pitching prospect (of which Atlanta has several: each of Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, and Joey Wentz are top 100 prospects in at least one major outlet). Ozzie Albies, said to be an essential part of any Realmuto deal with Atlanta, was never a demanded centerpiece, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though certainly a substantial return, it’s a package that can’t be said, by any reasonable analysis, to be one that would have stripped the farm of the suddenly-conservative Braves to the bone.
The ask of the Dodgers, ever-cautious themselves, was two from a group of Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz, Gavin Lux, and Will Smith, per Heyman, in the same tweet. Ruiz and Smith, both catchers, likely won’t ever be on the field together at Chavez Ravine, and some outlets ranked neither May nor Lux inside the top 100. Both Heyman and Rosenthal concede that Cody Bellinger was the prize on which Miami initially laid its eyes, but it appears the team quickly swiveled to less-established names in the weeks to follow.
Rosenthal confirms earlier reports that the Fish first coveted outfielder Michael Conforto or Amed Rosario from the Mets, and adds that the team also needed a “top shortstop prospect,” presumably Andres Gimenez, to be added to the deal. It doesn’t appear the club pivoted to other names after the Mets balked, likely owing to the thinned-out version of the late-offseason Mets farm.
From the Yankees, the club did seek Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar, per Rosenthal, but only part of a “larger deal” that would obviously have included additional pieces. The Bombers were understandably reluctant to trade either, and the wheat of the Yankee farm – stocked mostly with high-upside, low-level types – wouldn’t have been enough to secure Realmuto’s services. The reported three-team with the Mets that would have sent Noah Syndergaard to New York was bandied about, but a copacetic swap was “never close.”
Cincinnati was both late to the fore and hesitant to move any of its top three prospects, per Rosenthal, and it doesn’t appear a deal was close there, either. Perhaps surprisingly, given the intense scrutiny of the talks, both the Twins and White Sox were “in the mix,” though prospective returns and/or offers are still in the dark.
In the end, Miami seems more than content with its return. The Fish regarded Will Stewart, the trade’s third piece, as Philadelphia’s second-best pitching prospect, per Rosenthal, ahead of near-unanimous top-100 hurler Adonis Medina, righty Spencer Howard, who placed 52nd on Keith Law’s list, and lefty JoJo Romero (66th overall, per Law). Sixto Sanchez, of course, has a decent shot to be an ace, and it’s certainly true that the club could reap more value in Jorge Alfaro alone than it would in the next two seasons with Realmuto behind the dish. The oft-pilloried asks, long said to far outstrip the two-year value of the game’s premier offseason trade target, were, in most respects, perfectly reasonable, and may have quickly been met in eras bygone. This, though, is the time for prospect hoarding, an age in which the control is treasured above all else, and those with even the slightest chance to be stars are stashed deep away, brought out only for the most earnest of window shoppers.
Royals Sign Homer Bailey To Minor League Deal
Per Rustin Dodd of The Athletic, the Royals have signed longtime Red Homer Bailey to a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training.
Bailey, 33 in May, was part of the pre-holiday Reds-Dodgers swap that sent Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood to Cincinnati. There as a salary placeholder only, meant to offset, with the $28MM remaining on his deal, the sizable chunk still owed to Kemp, Bailey was immediately released by Los Angeles upon official approval of the deal by the Commissioner’s office.
After the 2013 season, in which Bailey parlayed a 3.49 ERA/3.31 FIP/3.34 xFIP (4.1 fWAR) campaign into a 6-year, $105MM extension, the former first-rounder has done little to nothing since. A solid, albeit injury-shortened, 2014 campaign was followed by a string of elbow troubles, kicked off by a 2015 Tommy John and culminating with a surgery, two years later, to remove bone spurs in the area.
Bailey’s 2018 was marred by right knee inflammation and a dangerous penchant for surrendering the longball – in 106 1/3 IP, Bailey allowed a staggering 23 bombs for Cincinnati, posting a 6.09 ERA/5.55 FIP mark that was only a slight decline from the year prior. Though his average fastball velocity has remained mostly steady, at 93.8 MPH, its efficacy has waned considerably: by FanGraphs’ measure, the pitch has been among the league’s worst in the category over the last two seasons, with the righty’s swinging strike rate plummeting to below 9%. Bailey, who once relied on the four-seamer over 72% of the time at its peak, has never boasted much in the way of swing-and-miss secondary stuff.
The Royals, who appear primed to enter the 2019 campaign with the underwhelming Brad Keller/Jakob Junis duo at the top of the rotation, may yet have a place for Homer at the rotation’s back end. Lingering gopher-ball issues could certainly be assuaged in the cavernous Kauffman Stadium dimensions, so perhaps the rebuilding Royals are a perfect place for Bailey to attempt a career resurrection.
Latest On Ryan Madson
There had been indications of late that veteran reliever Ryan Madson could be closing in on a deal. Now, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (in a notes post; subscription link), there’s reason to wonder whether he’ll sign at all.
Madson, 38, is said to be “thinking about not playing” in the 2019 campaign. Whether that is due to personal considerations or displeasure with the offers he has received is not clear, but it seems it’s not entirely certain that he’ll be back for a 14th MLB campaign.
If Madson does decide to throw, moreover, it’ll only be in the right circumstances. Rosenthal’s source says that Madson is expected to be “extremely picky” about where he signs. Again, it’s hard to know just what to make of that, since we don’t know what precise factors are driving the decisionmaking.
From the outside, it would be a surprise if multiple teams weren’t interested in giving the Southern California native a MLB roster spot and at least some guaranteed money. He still has a big fastball and compelling peripherals, even if he never was able to get the results to line up in 2018. And Madson put it all together in a compelling 2017 campaign in which he worked to a 1.83 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 59 innings.
No matter where things go from here, it has been quite a momentous late-career push for Madson, who made himself into a star closer in his age-30 season before injuries intervened. He ultimately missed three full MLB campaigns (2012-14), but has been even better since returning. In 239 2/3 innings since his 2015 return, Madson owns a 3.19 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.
NL Notes: D-Backs, Wheeler, Wacha, Dunn
The Diamondbacks‘ interesting offseason reflects GM Mike Hazen’s self-described effort to “thread the needle,” Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes in an excellent look at the Arizona organization and its top baseball executive. Despite trading away franchise cornerstone Paul Goldschmidt in what could turn out to be a highly consequential trade, the Snakes will enter the season with intentions of trying to contend — albeit with a realistic outlook and, it seems fair to presume, backup plans should things go south. Hazen says he’s committed to trying to put a winner on the field whenever possible, making clear he has no regret for pushing in chips at last summer’s trade deadline. It’s an interesting article that’s well worth a full read.
More from the National League:
- Mets righty Zack Wheeler has been noted as a potential extension target this spring, but it does not sound as if he’s anxious to discuss a new deal after previously agreeing to a $5.975MM contract for his final season of arbitration eligibility. As Tim Healey of Newsday writes, Wheeler declined to say that he’s interested in — or even thinking at all about — a long-term arrangement. “I’m here right now,” Wheeler says. “That’s all I’m worried about. All that stuff will figure itself out and I’ll worry about that later.” Those comments certainly don’t seem to rule out an extension, and Wheeler made clear he’s happy to be playing for the Mets, but they also leave little reason to think that he is anxious to secure a new deal. If the team was hoping it might find value by striking up negotiations this spring, then, it may be disappointed.
- Meanwhile, right-handed Cardinals starter Michael Wacha struck a similar tone, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, though he’s in a bit of a different situation than Wheeler. Though Wacha also turned in strong results last year, he ended the season on the shelf with an oblique injury. His own injury struggles are well-documented, albeit not as extensive as Wheeler’s, yet the situation is not one that’s obviously ripe for extension talks even as free agency beckons. Wacha made clear he has not been approached by the club to this point, saying he’s “not getting prepared for any talks” in camp.
- The Rockies are hopeful that southpaw Mike Dunn will be ready to head north with the club out of camp and have a full 2019 season, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes. That would be a boon to a relief unit that has not received the contributions it hoped for from multiple high-priced relief pitchers. The 33-year-old Dunn did not pitch to expectations in 2017 and had a dreadful 2018 showing before giong down to shoulder surgery. That creates quite a lot of uncertainty, though bullpen coach Darren Holmes says that the southpaw’s “arm is working as well as it did in 2016 or better” as camp approaches.
Mets Sign Danny Espinosa To Minor League Deal
The Mets announced Friday that they’ve signed infielder Danny Espinosa to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training.
Espinosa joins a crowded Mets infield mix that currently includes Jed Lowrie, Todd Frazier, Amed Rosario, Robinson Cano, J.D. Davis and first basemen Dominic Smith and Peter Alonso. He’ll face an uphill battle in cracking the roster because of that depth, particularly considering the struggles Espinosa has endured in recent seasons.
Once a high-quality regular for the Nationals, Espinosa has bounced all over the league since 2016, spending time with the Nats, Angels, Mariners, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Dodgers and Phillies (although not all in the Majors). Last year, in 80 games between the Triple-A affiliates for the Dodgers, Phillies and Jays, he hit a combined .229/.291/.356 in 315 plate appearances. If he doesn’t make the roster out of camp, the switch-hitting Espinosa will presumably head to the Mets’ new Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse and give them some depth in the event of an injury.
Diamondbacks Sign Ricky Nolasco, Marc Rzepczynski
The Diamondbacks have announced deals with two veteran hurlers. Both right-hander Ricky Nolasco and southpaw Marc Rzepczynski are slated to appear in MLB camp as non-roster invitees after signing minor-league pacts.
If he’s able to crack the roster, Rzepczysnki would earn at a $1.5MM rate, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). His deal also includes a $500K incentives package.
Another pair of former MLB relievers is also joining the Arizona organization, albeit without camp invites. Righty Michael Kohn and lefty Lucas Luetge also have minors deals in place. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first tweeted Kohn’s deal.
Nolasco will be looking to break back into the majors after sitting out the 2018 season. He did make 33 starts in the 2017 campaign, and spent camp last year with the Royals, so he hasn’t been on the sidelines for all that long.
Even ignoring the absence, it has been some times since the 36-year-old was effective. Nolasco’s strong 2013 season earned him a four-year deal with the Twins, but he carries a 4.99 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in the 575 innings he has thrown since that time.
The 33-year-old Rzepczynski did see MLB action last year, though he was knocked around in both the majors and minors in stints with the Mariners and Indians organizations. At his best, Rzepczynski is an exceedingly tough assignment for opposing left-handed hitters, who have hit just .227/.296/.305 against him in his career.
Kohn and Luetge are each even deeper comeback candidates. Neither has seen the majors since 2015 and neither played in the affiliated ranks at all in 2018.
Indians To Sign Alex Wilson
The Indians have agreed to terms with reliever Alex Wilson, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The right-hander receives a minor-league deal with an invitation to MLB Spring Training.
Wilson will need to earn his way onto the Indians roster this spring. If he can do so, he would stand to earn $1.25MM for the 2019 season. The deal also includes a $750K incentives package.
The 32-year-old Wilson was a perennial contributor to the Tigers bullpen over the prior four seasons. All told, through parts of six MLB campaigns, he carries a 3.23 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 along with a 44.8% groundball rate. The bottom-line numbers were similar last year, when Wilson ran a 3.36 ERA in his 61 2/3 frames while boosting his groundball rate to 49.2%.
Any team would certainly love to have a durable, low-3 reliever in its pen. The issue with Wilson is whether that sort of performance can really be anticipated moving forward. The Detroit organization obviously wasn’t optimistic, as it non-tendered him rather than paying a projected $2.8MM salary. And the rest of the league declined to come forward with a 40-man spot before the start of camp.
Wilson sits in range of 93 mph with his four-seam and two-seam fastballs. He throws breaking balls as well but relies most heavily on cutter/slider offering. Wilson’s hard-to-classify main pitch was more effective than ever last year even as he boosted its usage to the point that he utilized it in half of the pitches he delivered.
To date, Wilson has maxed out that arsenal and done just enough to get outs, even without a swing-and-miss offering or sustained, elite groundball production. He doesn’t issue many walks and has historically not outperformed Statcast’s expectations (career .317 wOBA-against vs. .314 xwOBA-against), but ERA estimators haven’t been enthused (career 3.81 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, 4.14 SIERA).
Those interested in learning more about where Wilson has been and where he might be headed would do well to check out this lengthy look from SB Nation’s Brandon Day.
Nationals Designate Trevor Gott, Announce Signing Of Jeremy Hellickson
The Nationals announced this evening that they have designated righty reliever Trevor Gott for assignment. His roster spot will go to starter Jeremy Hellickson, whose previously reported signing is now official.
Gott arrived in D.C. in the pre-2016 swap that sent Yunel Escobar to the Angels. At the time, Gott was coming off of a debut campaign in which he turned in 47 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball. While he had managed only 5.1 K/9 to go with 3.0 BB/9, Gott also maintained a hefty 57.2% groundball rate.
It came as a bit of a surprise, then, when Gott opened the ensuing season in the minors. He ultimately received little in the way of MLB opportunities over the next two seasons, before finally getting a longer look in 2018.
Unfortunately, Gott faltered in his most recent opportunity at the game’s highest level. His heavy sinker again generated loads of worm-burners (57.1% groundball rate), but he could muster only a 5.6% swinging-strike rate and ultimately allowed a dozen earned runs in 19 innings of work.
The Nationals evidently did not believe that Gott was going to turn the corner. He did post an impressive 38:8 K/BB ratio in his 29 1/3 Triple-A appearances last year, but has simply not been able to induce swings and misses in the majors. Other teams may well contemplate a claim, though, as Gott still possesses a live arm and is only 26 years old.
Farhan Zaidi Discusses Giants’ Interest In Bryce Harper
Newly appointed Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said today that the organization shares “mutual interest'” with free agent star Bryce Harper, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to report.
Zaidi acknowledged that he, CEO Larry Baer, and skipper Bruce Bochy recently sat down with Harper, Harper’s wife Kayla, and agent Scott Boras. There was no sense playing dumb on the subject. As Zaidi amusingly noted, Baer was “made in the casino” by an eagle-eyed fan during the visit to Las Vegas.
The mere fact of the visit itself largely made the point already, but it’s notable that the Giants are publicly discussing their ongoing interest. Zaidi called it a “good conversation over a few hours,” while Bochy labeled it “a great meeting” and heaped praise upon Harper.
While the seeming lack of widespread interest in the 26-year-old Harper (along with the similarly situated Manny Machado) has thus far been the story of the offseason, Zaidi did not drop any hints that the Giants were only swooping in to see if the price had dropped. That may have been part of the thinking, to be sure, but the top San Francisco baseball decisionmaker said that Harper has “a lot of suitors and a lot of interest” from around the game.
Pavlovic offers some other items of note as well, reporting that the initial meeting “lasted much longer than the Giants anticipated.” As Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio tweeted previously, Zaidi also met afterward with Boras on the latter’s private jet. (No word on whether Zaidi first tried to board the wrong aircraft.) While Zaidi acknowledged that Harper could make a decision in short order, the San Francisco organization has yet to formally put a contract in front of him. It stands to reason that it’ll do so in short order. It’s hard to know at this point how likely it is that Harper will choose to head to San Francisco, but it seems the organization is at minimum a viable suitor at this late stage of the process.
MLB Opposed To Near-Term Adoption Of Universal DH
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said today at the owners’ meetings that the league is not interested in considering certain union-proposed changes in advance of the 2019 season, as Ronald Blum of the AP reports. In particular, Manfred indicated he is not open to the introduction of the designated hitter to the National League.
It emerged recently that MLB and the MLB Players Association were exchanging proposals on a variety of significant potential rules changes. Some of those, including the introduction of a twenty-second pitch clock and a rule requiring any pitcher that enters a game to face at least three hitters, were set forth by the league.
Manfred indicated that he was pleased the union responded to the league’s proposals, a fact which some observers have pointed to as a positive step given the chilly (if not altogether frozen) negotiation atmosphere between the sides of late. Despite the less-testy signals, though, it seems the league isn’t inclined to budge on any substantive matters.
It’s not at all surprising to hear that MLB doesn’t wish to pursue an immediate implementation of the DH in the NL. With a good bit of the offseason movement already in the books, it’d be an odd time to make such a move. That’s all the more true of some of the other union-backed proposals involving draft incentives and service time, which surely would require extensive analysis and negotiation.
It is notable, though, that Manfred suggested the league is also generally not receptive to considering the expansion of the DH until the conclusion of the present Collective Bargaining Agreement, at the end of the 2021 campaign. An unnamed official told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that such a change is “not happening during this CBA.”
If that is indeed MLB’s committed stance, it seems to represent an intention to take a hard line on reopening the current rules regime before the deal is up. The issue of the universal DH seemed at least to offer a potential path to mutual benefit, as the league could market a bump in offense while veteran sluggers would find easier paths to roster spots and extra earnings.
Manfred, though, characterized that proposal (and others from the union) as presenting “significant economic issues” that are “different than the type of playing rule changes that we have out there.” That’s certainly true to an extent, but it’s also a bit of a partisan characterization of the league’s own suggestion that pitchers be required to face at least three batters. It’s debatable exactly how the ramifications of that rule would settle out in terms of player earnings, but it would certainly impact the way teams structure their rosters and invest in certain players (in that case, veteran LOOGYs) in much the same way as a universal DH.
It’ll be interesting to see where these discussions go from here. Manfred says the league “will engage on” the subjects raised by the union, so perhaps there’s still some room for an opening. It all takes place against the backdrop of a still-sluggish free agent market in which two young superstars and several other prominent players remain unsigned. Manfred acknowledged today that the hope is to see both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado under contract when Spring Training opens, though even if that occurs it’s hardly a guarantee of a reduction in tension. For the time being, both the league and union will presumably continue to trade words on these and other matters — cognizant all the while that these may be the preliminary skirmishes of a building public relations battle.