Astros Owner Jim Crane On Keuchel, Marwin, Free Agency
Astros owner Jim Crane gave some interesting comments today regarding his organization’s remaining plans for the winter and the state of the market at large, as MLB.com’s Alyson Footer of MLB.com reports on Twitter. It’s tough to tell the degree of interest, but Crane certainly seemed to indicate that the organization has some realistic inclination to bring back one or more of its recent players who remain available on the open market.
“We’ve got a couple guys that were here last year that are a possibility to be back here [this] year,” said Crane. “We hope that happens.” He went on to specifically cite southpaw Dallas Keuchel and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, both of whom are among the most-accomplished players who have yet to find new teams. Calling both Keuchel and Gonzalez “great players and great for the franchise,” Crane suggested there was at least a chance still of a reunion. “Maybe something will work out there,” he said, “who knows?”
It’s certainly arguable that both of those outgoing free agents still make sense on the roster. Between Keuchel and Charlie Morton, the Astros saw a lot of innings walk out the door. While there are options on hand to fill them, pursuit of another starter has long seemed sensible. It’s a bit of a tougher match with Gonzalez, particularly now that the Houston front office has acquired a potential replacement piece in Aledmys Diaz, but perhaps he’d still be of interest at the right price.
The club also bid adieu to several other veterans this winter, a few of whom have already signed elsewhere (including Morton). Backstop Martin Maldonado, southpaw reliever Tony Sipp, and DH Evan Gattis, however, all remain available after wrapping up their contracts with the ‘Stros. Among them, Sipp seems to represent the most sensible roster fit, though there’s no reason to think at this point that he’s a particular target.
However things shake out on Keuchel and Gonzalez, Crane’s comments didn’t admit of much of an opening for the team to pursue free agent market’s two biggest stars — or much of an appetite for any true blockbuster contracts in the future. Stating that the market is “a little bottled up” due to the ongoing presence of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, Crane went on to offer some revealing thoughts on the state of the hot stove economy and his own organization’s theoretical leanings.
“I think that teams are very focused on value,” said Crane of the business-wide approach to free agency. “I don’t know that you’ll see many more ten-year deals in this business anymore because the analytics are so good and a lot of those deals never work.”
The notion of value as an overriding concern — increasingly treated as something of an actuarial assessment of risk — is hardly a novel concept. But it’s interesting to see an owner not only come forward with that viewpoint, but to characterize it as an industry-wide phenomenon and acknowledge a particular practical ramification of such an approach.
Beyond those somewhat eyebrow-raising aspects of Crane’s comment, it’s also an interesting point to consider. It’s certainly possible to imagine decade-long deals that make sense, particularly for especially youthful players, even if it’s to be expected that the bulk of the on-field performance contributions will be reaped in such a contract’s earlier seasons. Beyond that, nobody really needed analytics to tell them of the concerns with guaranteeing so much money for so many years to one necessarily aging, potentially injured player. After all, the teams that have done so in the past did not tack on years and dollars because they preferred to; they simply did what it took to get the player in an open bidding situation.
Such elite players remain highly prized, of course, but the still-deepening analytical revolution — which has both recognized and helped usher in an influx of cheaply-acquired, increasingly well-prepared, league-minimum-earning players along with a youthened aging curve — has pointed to cheaper ways to maximize roster output while highlighting the financial risks of clogging future payrolls. The resulting reductions in demand have made it increasingly difficult for free agents to squeeze extra guaranteed seasons from clubs.
It’ll be interesting to see how things transpire this winter, with a pair of obvious candidates for extremely lengthy deals still waiting to sign them. While the Astros evidently will not be dabbling in such corners of the market, they’ll still be working to improve the roster in other ways — perhaps even by looking at the second tier of remaining free agents, which includes Keuchel, Gonzales, and others. “Every day we’re looking at opportunities,” says Crane.
MLBPA Hires Jerry Crasnick
Long-time journalist Jerry Crasnick has an intriguing new gig, with the Major League Baseball Players Association announcing his hiring. He’ll serve as senior advisor for player, agent, and media relations, working alongside just-promoted director of communications Chris Dahl.
It came as a major surprise last year when Crasnick’s tenure with ESPN was brought to a close. He was a fixture in the baseball reporting community and had enjoyed a productive, a 15-year run at the sports media giant. Over the years, Crasnick provided a trove of insightful hot stove journalism; he also reported quite a few items that were cited on this website.
With the move, Crasnick will take up a role at the MLBPA at quite an interesting time for the union and its members. Effectively addressing the suboptimal developments in the sphere of player compensation will obviously require more than new collective bargaining ideas and willpower at the negotiating table. It’ll also mean laying the groundwork for leverage by performing nuanced public relations work.
MLBTR offers a tip of the cap to Jerry for all his outstanding reporting over the years and wishes him well in his new pursuit.
Cubs To Sign George Kontos
The Cubs have agreed to a minor-league deal with reliever George Kontos, according to Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com (via Twitter). The deal comes with an invitation to participate in spring camp as a non-roster player.
Kontos, 33, has a long track record of getting results at the MLB level, though he has rarely flashed truly convincing peripherals. It’s hard to argue with 357 frames of 3.10 ERA pitching in the bigs. At the same time, with an underwhelming combination of 6.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and a 43.7% groundball rate for his career, Kontos carries only a 3.82 FIP, 4.00 xFIP, and 3.76 SIERA.
Generating light contact has been the name of the game for Kontos, who has held opposing hitters to a .265 batting average on balls in play for his career. Despite the unremarkable strikeout totals, he has also carried a strong 11.7% lifetime swinging-strike rate. Most intriguing of all was a 2017 bump in that statistic to an elite 16.4% level, though Kontos did not carry that with him into the ensuing campaign. He ultimately matched his career-worst ERA last year, allowing 4.39 earned runs per nine over 26 2/3 innings while bouncing between three teams.
All said, there’s plenty to like in securing Kontos on a minor-league deal. At worst, he represents a quality depth option to have on hand. And that past whiff rate does still tantalize, particularly since (as Levine notes) Kontos has shown an uptick in his velocity in workouts this winter. His typically low-nineties heater had trended down a bit in 2018.
Rays To Sign Casey Sadler
The Rays have agreed to a minors deal with righty Casey Sadler. John Dreker of Pirates Prospects first reported the news in December (via Twitter). The pact includes an invitation to participate in MLB Spring Training.
For a Tampa Bay club that has increasingly utilized quite a volume of different pitchers throughout the season, depth is paramount. Sadler, 28, will present the organization with another swingman piece to consider for a multi-inning relief role.
While he has seen MLB action in three campaigns, Sadler remains an out away from his 20th frame at the game’s highest level. He spent all of 2018 at Triple-A with the Pirates organization, which originally drafted him in the 25th round in 2010. In 77 innings for Indianapolis, Sadler worked to a 3.39 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.
Jose Reyes Hopes To Play In 2019
Veteran infielder Jose Reyes is planning to play the 2019 season, Anthony Rieber of Newsday reports on Twitter. When last we checked in, Reyes had indicated uncertainty as to whether he’d continue his playing career.
The question remains whether Reyes will receive an appealing opportunity. His on-field decline is certainly part of the picture. But Reyes will likely find it especially hard to get another chance given that he was arrested and charged with attacking his wife in 2015. While the charges were ultimately dropped when she decided not to testify, Reyes has acknowledged making a “terrible mistake” and was suspended under the league’s domestic violence policy.
That terribly unfortunate event ultimately set the stage for Reyes to return to the Mets, where he has played for the past three seasons. While he certainly did not rediscover his prior All-Star form, Reyes was an effective player for the organization in the first two years of the deal. He struggled last year, however, with a career-worst .189/.260/.320 batting line in 251 plate appearances.
Under the circumstances, it’s all but impossible to imagine the 35-year-old securing a 40-man roster spot. Some organizations may decide not to consider hiring him at all. Still, there’s little doubt that the switch-hitter remains worthy of a non-roster contract from an on-field perspective, so it would not be surprising to see him catch on somewhere if he’s willing to take a minor-league deal.
Athletics Sign Marco Estrada
The Athletics have announced a one-year deal with free-agent right-hander Marco Estrada, as Jane Lee of MLB.com first reported (via Twitter). He’ll be guaranteed $4MM, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter).
The former Brewers/Blue Jays hurler is a client of TWC Sports. To clear roster space, the club has outrighted just-claimed righty Parker Bridwell, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).
This move represents the latest short-term strike from an Oakland organization that wants to boost its pitching staff in the near-term without tying up long-term resources. Naturally, that means taking some chances on players who have not been at top form of late, and Estrada certainly matches that characterization.
The A’s previously inked Mike Fiers and Joakim Soria, but it was clear that the rotation, in particular, was in need of at least one more addition. It’s certainly still possible that other hurlers will be added, at least on minor-league deals.
As for Estrada, he’ll be looking to bounce back from a pair of less-than-effective seasons. Lower body and back issues may partially have been to blame, so returning to full health could make a difference in and of itself. Otherwise, it’s a question whether Estrada can hold off the hands of time for at least one more campaign.
Last year, working in his fourth straight season in Toronto, Estrada posted a brutal 5.64 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He was stung, especially, by the long ball. While he only allowed dingers on a reasonable 11.2% of the flyballs put in play against him, that still worked out to 1.82 per nine, due to the large number of flies he permits.
Estrada still works in more or less the same fastball velocity range (89.0 mph) that he long has, though it did dip in the second half as his struggles increased. He also sat at a typical 10.1% swinging-strike rate last year. Perhaps, then, much of his physical skill remains intact.
The A’s surely won’t be expecting an ace-level performance, of course, but they obviously feel confident that Estrada will provide a good volume of solid innings. He has mostly done just that over the course of his MLB career.
Indians Re-Sign Oliver Perez
The Indians announced Friday that they’ve re-signed left-handed reliever Oliver Perez. It’s a one-year contract with a vesting option for the 2020 season for the Scott Boras client. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Perez will be guaranteed $2.5MM (Twitter link). Perez has a $2.75MM club option that will automatically vest if he reaches 55 games pitched, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The option can also vest at $3MM if he appears in 60 games.
Perez, 37, quietly enjoyed a surprising career renaissance with the Indians last season, working to a sparkling 1.39 ERA with 12.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.28 HR/9 and a 41.2 percent ground-ball rate in 32 1/3 innings of work. Perez’s workload in the Majors was limited by the fact that he opened the season with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate after agreeing to a minor league deal in hopes of rebuilding his stock. The opportunity to do so didn’t present itself with the Yankees, but Perez latched on with Cleveland on a big league deal in early June and firmly put himself back on the map as a viable bullpen option over the season’s final four months.
While one might think that Perez will serve as a left-handed specialist, as he has in the past, his dominance in 2018 should earn him opportunities regardless of opponent. Righties and lefties alike were utterly befuddled by Perez last year; he held left-handed opponents to a .194/.215/.274 slash, which is excellent but still pales in comparison to the comical .104/.218/.104 slash to which he limited righties.
It’s been a quiet offseason for Cleveland, with Perez somewhat incredibly representing their first Major League free-agent signing of the offseason. The Indians have been more active on the trade front, though they’ve dealt away more MLB talent (Yan Gomes, Yonder Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion) than they’ve acquired while also losing free agents Michael Brantley (to the Astros) and Cody Allen (to the Angels).
That makes for a puzzling offseason for a club that entered the winter widely expected to run away with its fourth straight division title in 2019. Cleveland may still be the favorites, but improvements by the Twins and White Sox alike will give the Tribe a tougher time in securing a division title — especially considering the lack of improvement this winter. Payroll issues, however, have been said to be a very real limitation in Cleveland after a franchise-record figure in 2018, and it doesn’t seem as if the team is poised to make any notable expenditures between now and Opening Day. All that said, if Perez is able to remotely approximate last season’s excellence, he’ll help to solidify a bullpen that was in dire need of augmentation.
Mets To Sign Justin Wilson
The Mets are in agreement on a contract with free-agent lefty Justin Wilson, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). The ACES client’s contract is still pending the completion of a physical. Assuming that checks out, he’ll be paid a total of $10MM over two years, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).
Wilson, 31, will give the Mets a much-needed lefty to a bullpen where the previous top options included an inexperienced Daniel Zamora and non-roster invitee Luis Avilan. It’s possible that one or both of those southpaws will still pitch alongside Wilson in the ‘pen, but the veteran Wilson will help to solidify the area of need and provide plenty of strikeouts along the way.
Wilson is coming off an up-and-down tenure with the Cubs, with whom he posted a strong 3.41 ERA and averaged 11.4 K/9 last season. While control was an issue early in his Cubs tenure, he righted the ship in that regard over the course of the 2019 season; after walking 30 hitters in his first 26 1/3 innings as a Cub, Wilson regained his control and issued a vastly more manageable 22 walks in his final 46 innings of work in ’18. Left-handed batters, in particular, struggled against Wilson this past season, hitting just .188/.301/.342. He’s been far more than a specialist throughout his career, however, holding right-handed opponents to a .210/.305/.323 line in parts of seven Major League seasons.
The addition of Wilson is the third notable pickup for the Mets and new GM Brodie Van Wagenen this winter, as they’ve previously acquired Edwin Diaz in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners and re-signed Jeurys Familia to a three-year, $30MM contract as well. That newly acquired trio (re-acquired — in Familia’s case) will be joined by righties Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman in anchoring what should be an improved Mets bullpen in 2019.
With the signing, Wilson becomes the tenth free-agent reliever to sign a multi-year contract this offseason and the second to do so with the Mets (joining Familia). Adding an annual $5MM salary to the mix will push the Mets’ payroll a bit further north. While they’ll technically be on the hook for upwards of $163MM in 2019, they’ll also receive substantial compensation from insurance policies on both David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes. At present, including the Wilson signing and the insurance money they’ll recoup from Wright and Cespedes, the Mets project to a roughly $149MM payroll, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.
NL East Notes: Nola, Markakis, Marlins, Braves, Nats
The Phillies and Aaron Nola have not had any “substantive” discussions regarding a long-term contract extension, writes Matt Gelb of The Athletic in a much broader exploration of Nola’s contractual status and pending arbitration case (subscription required). The two sides are facing a $2.25MM gap between the $4.5MM at which the Phillies filed and the $6.75MM at which Nola and Paragon Sports filed.
A hearing is set for Feb. 14, and with no real talks on a multi-year deal taking place to this point, it seems all the likelier that Nola’s case will be resolved in front of an arbitration panel. There’s no immediate urgency for the Phillies to lock Nola up to a long-term contract, and it’s certainly possible that the right-hander’s preference is simply to go year-to-year through arbitration until reaching free agency upon completion of the 2021 season. Both Nola and Yankees right-hander Luis Severino are important cases for future first-time-eligible starters in arbitration; with the exception of Dallas Keuchel (who is anomalous, having entered arbitration fresh off a Cy Young win), no first-time starter has topped the $4.35MM that Dontrelle Willis received way back in 2006. It’s a stunningly outdated number, and arb victories for Nola and/or Severino would help move the needle forward for future starting pitchers.
More from the division…
- Prior to re-signing with the Braves on a one-year contract, Nick Markakis had interest from the division-rival Marlins, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred. It’s one of the few times this offseason that the Miami organization has been connected to virtually any sort of free agent, as the vast majority of their offseason has centered around the apparently interminable J.T. Realmuto trade saga. Heyman notes that Miami is still seeking a left-handed bat — likely an outfielder — though it’s likely that they prefer to see what the return for Realmuto brings before committing any spots to veteran free agents.
- Speaking of the great Realmuto staredown, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes in his latest Inbox column that the Marlins are still insisting that the Braves include one of their current position players in a trade for the All-Star catcher. So long as that continues to be the price, Bowman writes, it’s unlikely that the Braves will cave into the Marlins’ demands. Bowman also projects that the Braves are about $15MM away from ownership’s top-approved budget level, noting that the team would like to preserve some of those resources for in-season additions when the need arises.
- In another MLB.com Inbox, Jamal Collier writes that the Nationals are still in the mix for Bryce Harper and takes his best guess at how the organization will ultimately act with regards to Harper and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Collier also adds that it’s unlikely the Nationals add another reliever on a market-value contract, adding the caveat that the Nats might make a very late addition to the relief corps if a quality reliever’s market collapses and renders his price point well south of expected levels. In a separate piece, Collier opines that a left-handed reliever would be ideal for the Nats, who tend to use Sean Doolittle in save situations and otherwise have only Matt Grace and Sammy Solis (who struggled through an awful down season in ’18) as the other two options on the 40-man roster. Non-roster invitee Vidal Nuno will also be given a chance, but it’s possible the market does yield an unexpectedly affordable left-handed upgrade, given the bulk of relievers who’ve yet to sign.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/25/19
Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…
- The Athletics announced a wide slate of non-roster invitations to Spring Training, revealing within that they’ve signed left-hander Kyle Crockett, infielders Corban Joseph and Eric Campbell, and righty Brian Schlitter to minor league contracts. Crockett, 27, has the most significant big league experience among the new additions, having logged 9 1/3 innings with the Reds last year and 74 2/3 innings over the past five seasons. Crockett was a 2013 fourth-rounder who skyrocketed through the minors and impressed in a 2014 MLB debut (1.80 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 in 30 innings). He’s managed just a 5.04 ERA in 44 2/3 frames since, though his 45-to-17 K/BB ratio in that time is solid. Joseph, 30, posted a .541 OPS in 19 plate appearances with the O’s last season and hit .312/.381/.497 in 523 Double-A PAs last year. Campbell, 31, had a three-year run as an up-and-down utility piece for the Mets from 2014-16 and hasn’t been in the Majors since. He’s a career .221/.312/.311 hitter and enjoyed a .313/.420/.445 slash in 402 Triple-A PAs with Miami last year. Schlitter, 33, hasn’t been in the Majors since 2015. He has an ugly 5.40 ERA in 71 2/3 innings with the Cubs but worked to a solid 3.36 ERA in 67 innings with the Dodgers’ top affiliate last season.