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Cubs Claim Ian Clarkin

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The Cubs announced that they’ve claimed left-hander Ian Clarkin off waivers from the White Sox. The former first-round pick has yet to make his big league debut.

Clarkin, 24 in February, was the No. 33 pick by the Yankees in the 2013 draft but went from the Yanks to the Sox in the 2017 David Robertson/Tommy Kahnle swap. The 2018 season was an ugly one for Clarkin, however, as he was hit hard in 68 Double-A innings. In 18 appearances (10 starts) at that level he posted a 4.98 ERA and averaged just 4.6 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. The Cubs have a general need for left-handed depth in the bullpen and will look to tap into the potential that made Clarkin a first-rounder earlier this decade. It’s far from a guarantee that he’ll stick on their 40-man roster for the remainder of the winter, but if h does, he’ll be an optionable piece for the Cubs in 2019.

Braves, Ryan LaMarre Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Braves are in agreement with outfielder Ryan LaMarre on a minor league contract, tweets MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo. The Octagon client will head to Spring Training and compete for a bench role after spending the 2018 campaign with the Twins and White Sox.

LaMarre, who turns 30 tomorrow, hit .279/.322/.382 in 180 plate appearances between Minnesota and Chicago, adding a pair of homers, 11 doubles and two stolen bases along the way. That offense, though, was buoyed by a .389 BABIP that looks ripe for regression. LaMarre also whiffed in nearly 30 percent of his plate appearances, further adding some reason for skepticism.

That said, the journeyman can handle all three outfield spots and does have a .268/.336/.389 slash in parts of six Triple-A seasons. He’ll head to camp and look to crack the roster as a reserve option for manager Brian Snitker.

Cardinals Designate Conner Greene, Derian Gonzalez For Assignment

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The Cardinals announced a series of roster moves in advance of tonight’s deadline to set 40-man rosters before next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Lefty Genesis Cabrera, right-hander Ryan Helsley, outfielder Lane Thomas and infielder Ramon Urias have all had their contracts selected and been added to the 40-man roster. In order to clear the two spots necessary to accommodate that quartet, the Cards designated right-handers Conner Greene and Derian Gonzalez for assignment.

Greene, 23, was acquired alongside Dominic Leone in last offseason’s Randal Grichuk trade. The former seventh-round pick’s longstanding control issues didn’t improve in his lone season with the Cards, as Greene walked 63 batters in 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. As for the 23-year-old Gonzalez, he pitched to a 3.51 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB.9 across three levels in 33 1/3 innings during an injury-shortened 2018 season.

The 22-year-old Cabrera was one of the key pieces acquired in the summer trade sending Tommy Pham to the Rays and was a lock to be added to the roster today, though he could still be a year away from contributing in the big leagues.. Helsley, 24, is a former fifth-round pick who’s posted impressive strikeout totals in the upper minors and likely isn’t far from a look in the Majors. Thomas, too, is an upper-minors piece who could emerge as an option in the relatively near future after hitting .264/.333/.489 between Double-A and Triple-A this past season. Urias, 24, hit .300/.356/.516 in 90 games between Double-A and Triple-A this past season.

Diamondbacks Outright Braden Shipley, Artie Lewicki

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The D-backs announced today that they’ve assigned right-handers Braden Shipley and Artie Lewicki outright to Triple-A Reno after the pair cleared waivers. The moves bring their 40-man roster to a total of 33 players.

It’s a disappointing outcome for Shipley, whom Arizona drafted with the 15th overall selection back in 2013. The former University of Nevada-Reno standout has accumulated exactly 100 innings at the big league level over the past three seasons but been hit hard, posting a 5.49 ERA with just 64 strikeouts against 45 walks in that time. Beyond lackluster K/BB numbers, home runs have been an issue for Shipley, who has served up 19 long balls in those 100 innings.

Shipley will turn 27 later this offseason and could yet emerge as a viable MLB arm, but he’ll have to first rebuild some stock in the upper minors. He’s coming off a pair of poor seasons in Triple-A but had some success with the Aces in 2016, when he logged a 3.70 ERA and 3.75 FIP in 119 1/3 innings of work.

The 26-year-old Lewicki (27 in April) was claimed off waivers from the Tigers earlier this offseason. He won’t pitch in 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery late in the year. As noted at the time, it seemed unlikely that he’d last the entire winter on the 40-man roster because of that fact, but the D-backs have succeeded in removing him from the 40-man while retaining his rights, so he could be an option for them in 2020.

Lewicki has generally turned in quality results in the upper minors but has yet to have much success as a big leaguer. In 2018, he threw 38 1/3 innings of 4.89 ERA ball with 7.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9 and a 40.3 percent ground-ball rate with the Tigers. However, he posted a 2.03 ERA with terrific K/BB numbers in Triple-A in 2017 and owns an overall 3.79 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 92 2/3 innings at the top minor league level.

Nationals Sign Kurt Suzuki

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Nov. 20: The Nationals have formally announced Suzuki’s two-year deal.

Nov. 19, 11:10am: Suzuki’s contract is a two-year, $10MM deal that’ll pay him $4MM in 2019 and $6MM in 2020, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

10:24am: The Nationals have agreed to a two-year contract with free-agent catcher Kurt Suzuki, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The deal is pending a physical. Suzuki is represented by the MVP Sports Group.

Kurt Suzuki | Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Long a sturdy option, the veteran Suzuki took his offensive game to new heights over the past couple of seasons, hitting at a .276/.341/.485 clip with 31 homers over the course of 697 plate appearances while sharing time with Tyler Flowers.

Unlike many players who experience a significant jump in power production, the 35-year-old Suzuki hasn’t simply “sold out” in terms of sacrificing his typically excellent contact rate for some additional pop. He’s fanned at just an 11.8 percent clip over the past two years — the ninth-lowest among all MLB hitters in that time (min. 600 plate appearances). Suzuki upped his hard-hit rate and homer-to-fly-ball ratio in significant fashion and will look to carry that improved production over to a return stint with the Nationals, for whom he played in 2012-13.

In Suzuki, the Nats will likely find an offensive upgrade over the production (or lack thereof) that they received from Matt Wieters over a previous two-year deal of his own. Getting some help behind the plate was imperative for the Nats, who saw Wieters and a slew of backup options combine to bat just .211/.290/.319 through 1259 plate appearances in 2017-18. Even with some regression in his bat — Nationals Park, notably, is not as hitter-friendly as SunTrust Park — Suzuki should be able to provide an uptick in offensive output at the position.

Defensively, Suzuki hasn’t generated the same level of results. His throwing improved with the Braves after a poor two-year stretch with Minnesota in that regard, but Suzuki’s 21.3 percent caught-stealing rate (25-for-117) over the past two seasons still checks in well below the league average of about 27.5 percent. To Suzuki’s credit, Baseball Prospectus has graded him among the best in the game at blocking pitches in the dirt over the past two seasons, but B-Pro has also rated his framing skills to be below-average in each season dating back to 2008.

It’s not yet clear if Suzuki will represent the Nationals’ sole addition at catcher. Solid as his bat was with the Braves, Suzuki averaged 85 games caught between the two seasons and hasn’t topped 100 games behind the dish since serving as the Twins’ primary backstop in 2015. Pedro Severino, Spencer Kieboom and Raudy Read represent the organization’s other three catching options on 40-man roster, and while any could conceivably serve as a backup to Suzuki, none has experienced big league success to date. Suzuki’s excellent production in 2017-18 should assure him of a prominent role in the Washington lineup, but the rest of the outfit still looks uncertain.

The addition of Suzuki is the third notable pickup in what has been an active offseason for Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo and his front office. The Nats have already acquired righty Kyle Barraclough from the Marlins in exchange for international bonus allotments, and Washington also rolled the dice on a one-year deal with former Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal, who’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery in 2019. Of course, the biggest question surrounding the Nats will be whether they retain former NL MVP Bryce Harper in free agency or if they let him sign with another organization. Certainly, the money promised to Suzuki on this new contract won’t stand as any real impediment to those efforts, but the Nats have holes to fill in the rotation and possibly at second base, as well.

As for the Braves, they won’t receive compensation for the loss of Suzuki, and they’ll now have to watch the former fan and clubhouse favorite suit up for one of their top division rivals. Atlanta already extended Flowers through the 2019 season, but it seems quite likely that they’ll be adding a catcher of some note to step up and handle a significant chunk  — if not the vast majority — of playing time for the 2019 season.

Suzuki checked in 46th on MLBTR’s ranking of the Top 50 free agents this offseason, with an estimated two-year pact worth a total of $8MM. In our corresponding Free Agent Prediction Contest, just 3.87 percent of respondents correctly guessed that he’d return to the Nats.

Projecting Payrolls: Los Angeles Angels

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In the opening piece in this series, we looked at the Philadelphia Phillies, a team almost certain to be a major player in this winter’s free agent market. Next we traveled to southern California to see if the deep pockets of the Los Angeles Dodgers would make them a major player this winter. Once again, in addition to being a fun look at a key market participant, the Phillies piece also sets forth some key assumptions to be used in this series regarding financial information available to the public.

Today, we head 30 miles southeast to Anaheim to check in on an Angels team still seeking to win its first playoff game during Mike Trout’s historic career.

Team Leadership

Unlike the rival Dodgers, Angels ownership has been a pillar of stability since advertising magnate Arte Moreno purchased the club in April 2003. Moreno is perhaps best known for embarking on an aggressive marketing strategy after taking control, rebranding a club that had been known as the California or Anaheim Angels since 1965 as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. After carrying that name for a decade and surviving lawsuits from the City of Anaheim regarding the rebranding, the club finally reverted to its original name in 2016: the Los Angeles Angels.

It’s difficult to argue with the results. While Moreno purchased the team for $180 million in 2003, Forbes projected that team value had increased tenfold in the 15 years that followed, reaching $1.8 billion as of April 2018.

The baseball side of the operation is headed by a model of persistence, general manager Billy Eppler. While working as assistant general manager under Brian Cashman with the Yankees, Eppler interviewed for the Angels general manager job in 2011, losing out to Jerry Dipoto. However, when Dipoto resigned during the 2015 season due to a rift with manager Mike Scioscia, Eppler leaped at the opportunity to return home to Southern California and secured the Angels job.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Angels, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

Using this time frame works well for the Angels as it captures nearly all of Moreno’s run of ownership. After years of spending like a mid-market club, Moreno boosted the Angels to top-10 spending during his first full season in 2004 and they have remained there ever since. Here is what the Angels have spent in the prior 14 seasons:

Angels spending spiked dramatically under Moreno’s first decade of ownership, more than doubling the spending levels employed by the Walt Disney Company during their brief period of ownership prior to Moreno. However, after reaching $151.4 million in 2012, the spending rate has largely plateaued with remarkable consistency over the last three seasons.

The Angels have largely eschewed massive commitments in the amateur sphere. This is likely due in large part to the club being burned on their $8 million deal with Cuban infielder Roberto Baldoquin. Signed in January 2015, the 24-year-old Baldoquin has a putrid wRC+ of 72 for his minor league career. He is yet to reach Triple-A, let alone the Major Leagues. Yet because of the size of the signing bonus that the team gave Baldoquin, the Angels found themselves in the international amateur penalty box for the next two signing cycles, severely limiting their ability to swim with the big fish internationally. Accordingly, their Major League spending is an excellent indicator of total spending.

Future Liabilities

Unlike some other big-market clubs that have handed out significant dollars while retaining salary sheet flexibility, the Angels are largely wedded to their big contracts with five eight-figure AAV contracts extending through at least 2020.

Here is a look at their future guarantees with the peach highlight indicative of a club option for Kole Calhoun.  As mentioned above, note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus. The AAV column captures the player’s luxury tax number.

There are some seriously significant numbers here. While it should start with the all-world Trout, we instead begin with the final three years on what quickly became an albatross deal for Albert Pujols. The Angels now owe Pujols “just” $87 million for his final three seasons, pushing them closer to a time in which his contract won’t all-but-guarantee him significant playing time. Perhaps the need to use Shohei Ohtani as a designated hitter in his return from elbow surgery will push Pujols toward more time on the bench, where he should be at this stage in his career. Unfortunately, the payments to Pujols won’t stop just because he stops playing: Pujols will receive a 10-year, $10 million personal services contract following the completion of his career. I presume that he will retire following his 2021 guarantee.

The other two numbers that jump off the page are the commitments to outfielders Trout and Justin Upton. Both players provided the Angels with good production in 2018 — OK, Trout was a hair better than “good” — so it comes as no surprise that they top the payroll spreadsheet. Both talents figure to occupy core lineup locations throughout their deals.

A pair of infielders follow as Andrelton Simmons and his elite glove come with two more years of below-market control while Zack Cozart will look to rebound after a rough debut season in Anaheim. Neither guarantee is terribly significant, and if the Angels need to move money at some point, I expect that Cozart would be a good starting point.

Finally, we reach Calhoun. The right fielder followed three consecutive above-average seasons from 2014-16 with a solid year in 2017 before slipping all the way to replacement level in 2018. If the Angels find themselves wanting to move salary to make another acquisition, Calhoun would seem to be a logical candidate to find a new home. Ken Rosenthal hears the same.

Moving to arbitration, the Angels feature only modest and even genuinely low projected salaries. Factor in that Matt Shoemaker may be non-tendered, and the Angels figure to allot a comparatively small amount of their total payroll to arbitration-eligible talent. Here are the arbitration statuses (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

In addition to Shoemaker, JC Ramirez is a possible non-tender candidate. It’s also possible the pitchers agree to contracts south of what arbitration would be expected to provide.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

Simply put, neither Moreno nor Eppler has had much to say recently about spending, so we find ourselves looking to prior offseasons for guidance. Last winter, Moreno commented that the Angels lost money in 2016 and 2017, yet it didn’t stop him from authorizing a similar payroll in 2018. He hasn’t imposed any austerity measures during his ownership tenure, so that jives well with what he said last year.

Are the Angels a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

As fun as it would be to see Harper and Trout share the outfield or to see Machado and Simmons vacuum up every ball hit to the left side of the infield, it’s tough to see a fit for either young star here. A look through the Angels roster shows some strong position player talent and a handful of good, youngish starting pitchers. Unfortunately, the best starting pitching in question — Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, and Shohei Ohtani — all come with significant current and/or recent injuries. Los Angeles does have young righty Jaime Barria around, but he looks more like a good back-end option than an impact starter for a contender. Expect to see the Angels focus their spending efforts on an arm or two.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.

The Angels’ payroll has been remarkably consistent over the years. Despite Moreno’s spending increases during his ownership tenure, they have all been of the gradual variety with the sole considerable jump that was unaccompanied by a corresponding dip in the prior year occurring in 2011 when spending spiked $20.7 million in one year as a result of the Vernon Wells acquisition.

With all of that said…

Moreno is the one current owner in Major League Baseball who appears likely to go the way of Mike Ilitch, incurring significant losses to keep his team in contention each year as he ages. Moreno purchased the club shortly after their sole World Series title in 2002, so he is yet to hoist a trophy as owner. To be clear: this is baseless speculation. As far as I can tell, no writers or front office folks have leaked information indicating that Moreno plans to break the bank this winter. But would I be stunned if Moreno authorized a $200 million payroll so he could pair Harper and Trout together for the next two years before allowing both to leave via free agency for Trout and an opt-out clause for Harper? Absolutely not. And in that scenario, the Angels would jettison Calhoun, minimizing the payroll impact of Harper’s addition.

It’s still more likely that the Angels focus on pitching acquisitions this winter — Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin make sense as targets — but if payroll hits $200 million, they would have room for both Harper/Machado and the needed pitching. For now, let’s assume they non-tender Shoemaker and Ramirez but hold onto Calhoun as a bounceback candidate.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $175 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $36.6 million

Marlins Claim Julian Fernandez

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The Marlins announced that they’ve claimed right-hander Julian Fernandez off waivers from the Giants. Their 40-man roster now has 36 players.

The Giants selected Fernandez, 22, out of the Rockies organization with the second pick in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. However, the right-hander suffered a UCL tear in Spring Training and underwent Tommy John surgery in early April. He never pitched in a regular-season game for the Giants, instead spending the season on the 60-day disabled list.

Fernandez should be recovered early in the 2019 season, but he’ll retain his Rule 5 eligibility next season after spending the year on the disabled list. Miami will technically be able to give him a month-long run in the minors as an injury rehab stint, but after that he’d need to be called up and spend 90 days on the active roster or else be put through waivers and offered back to the Rockies. That makes him somewhat of a long shot to actually stick with the Marlins, though as a team that won’t be in the playoff picture next season, they’re the type of club that can afford to carry an intriguing arm of this nature.

In 58 innings with Class-A Asheville in 2017, Fernandez worked to a 3.26 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate. More than his numbers to date, however, the Marlins are betting on Fernandez’s huge velocity (as were the Giants). He’s been clocked in triple digits with his heater when healthy.

Deadline To Set 40-Man Rosters Before Rule 5 Draft Is Tonight

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The deadline for Major League teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft is tonight at 8pm ET. As such, baseball fans should expect to see a flurry of activity over the next 11 hours. There will be likely be players designated for assignment, outrighted and claimed off waivers in addition to multiple smaller-scale trades as teams make room on their own 40-man rosters and also pick up fringe 40-man candidates out of other organizations.

The Rule 5 Draft will take place on the final day of next month’s Winter Meetings (Dec. 13) and allow clubs with open space on the 40-man roster to select certain players not on the 40-man roster out of other organizations. Rule 5 eligibility is dependent on the age at which a player signed and that player’s experience.

A player that signed at 18 years of age or younger and has five seasons of pro ball with is Rule 5 eligible if he is not added to the 40-man roster today. Players that signed at 19 or older and have four seasons of professional experience are also eligible to be selected if they’re not added to the 40-man roster today. (In other words, college draftees out of the 2015 class, high school draftees out of the 2014 class and most international amateurs signed in the 2014-15 international period are eligible this year if not protected.)

MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has a rundown of the players in each team’s top 30 prospect rankings who need to be protected today or else be exposed to potential Rule 5 selection. Of particular note, eight prospects who find themselves on MLB.com’s top 100 prospect rankings need protection, though there’s virtually no chance that any from that bunch are left off their respective rosters. Readers will also want to check out an exhaustive team-by-team look at some candidates to be added to each team’s 40-man roster, courtesy of Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource, as well as a team-by-team look at each club’s decisions from the staff over at Baseball America.

Here’s a quick rundown of the number of open 40-man spaces each team presently has to work with as of this morning:

American League West

American League Central

American League East

National League West

National League Central

National League East

Adrian Beltre Retires

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After a brilliant career that spanned parts of 21 seasons, Adrian Beltre announced today that he is retiring from baseball. Via a Rangers press release, Beltre has issued the following statement:

After careful consideration and many sleepless nights, I have made the decision to retire from what I’ve been doing my whole life, which is playing baseball, the game I love.

I have thought about it a lot and although I appreciate all the opportunities and everything that baseball has given me, it’s time to call it a career. I have enjoyed the privilege of playing professional baseball since I was 15 years old. I have been blessed to have played 21 seasons at the highest level in Major League Baseball.

I want to thank God, my amazing wife Sandra for your unwavering and unconditional love, support and understanding throughout my entire baseball career, my three awesome children, Cassie, A.J and Camila for being the best baseball kids, my parents, and my entire family for all your love and support.

I also want to thank my agents, Scott Boras, Mike Fiore and the entire Boras Corp. for always believing in my talent. A huge THANK YOU goes to the numerous teammates, managers, coaches, and staff members from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox and especially the Texas Rangers. These past eight seasons playing in a Rangers’ uniform have been the best of my career and were made possible thanks to Rangers’ owners Ray Davis, Bob Simpson, and Neil Leibman, General Manager Jon Daniels, Nolan Ryan, and the late Don Welke.

I also owe a huge part of my success in Texas to the amazing Rangers’ fans. You guys are the best!

I also have to acknowledge and thank Tommy Lasorda for believing in this young kid from the Dominican Republic when others thought I was too young to be called up to the Big Leagues.

To all my fans in the Dominican Republic, the United States and Latin America, my sincerest THANK YOU for your continuous support throughout my career. While I will forever cherish the memories from my time playing the greatest game on earth, I am excited to become a fulltime husband and father, and I am ready to take on the next chapter of my life.

It’s been one hell of a ride!

Muchas gracias,

Adrian Beltre

The march to Cooperstown now begins in earnest for Beltre, one of the greatest third basemen to ever play the game. Signed by the Dodgers out of Santo Domingo in 1994, Beltre debuted in the Majors as a 19-year-old just four years later and never looked back. While his first season didn’t yield quality results, Beltre improved greatly in his age-20 campaign and cemented himself as a star in the years to follow. Beltre ultimately accrued more than 20 years of Major League service time, spending at least five years with each of the Dodgers, Mariners and Rangers (in addition to one year with the Red Sox in 2010).

Already a highly regarded player in the first half of his career, Beltre is the rare player who actually improved with his age. While most players begin to fade in their early to mid-30s, Beltre seemingly won a staredown with Father Time. Incredibly, he’d never made an All-Star team prior to his 31st birthday, but he was named to four Midsummer Classic rosters over the final nine seasons of his career. After hitting a combined .270/.325/.453 with superlative defense from 1998-2009, Beltre exploded to hit .307/.358/.514 from 2010-18. Along that remarkable 21-year journey, his glovework scarcely deteriorated, making him one of the best all-around players in the game for the better part of two decades.

Beltre will retire as a career .286/.339/.480 hitter, with 477 home runs, 636 doubles, 38 triples and 121 stolen bases on his resume. He totaled 3166 hits as a Major Leaguer, scored 1524 runs and knocked in another 1707 runs. In addition to his four All-Star nods — which, in retrospect, was far too few — Beltre won four Silver Sluggers, five Gold Gloves and a pair of Platinum Gloves. Even that considerable amount of hardware feels light — particularly on the Gold Glove front, as Beltre is the runaway all-time leader in Defensive Runs Saved at any position since the stat was introduced in 2003. No one is even close to Beltre’s towering mark of 222, with Andrelton Simmons’ 184 DRS currently sitting in a distant second place.

Beltre earned $219MM in one of the greatest careers we baseball fans will ever have the privilege to witness. Fangraphs tallies his career at 84 wins above replacement, while Baseball-Reference pegs him at a whopping 95.7 WAR. As surefire a Hall of Famer as one can find, Beltre will take his place among the game’s elite in five years once he’s eligible for the Hall of Fame ballot.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Cardinals had a thrilling season on the whole, but a tumultuous roller coaster ride bookended by significant winning and losing streaks ultimately ended on a low note as they missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season. That’s a lengthy drought by their standards, as fans hadn’t yet been forced to endure such a streak during the new millenium.

On the one hand, the club has a formidable crew under team control for 2019, including several franchise mainstays, and can expect a reasonable degree of improvement from its wealth of young talent. On the other hand, its veteran core includes eight players over 30 years of age (six are at least 32), and they could be facing some decline in production and/or injury risk from many members of that group. The club’s front office will surely be taking a slew of complex factors into account as they try to put together a contender for 2019.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[St. Louis Cardinals Depth Chart |St. Louis Cardinals Payroll Outlook]

Even after a relatively quiet trade deadline, the Cardinals surged to the forefront of the NL Central race with a torrid August that saw them go 22-6. But a mediocre 12-15 September cost them a chance to compete in the 2018 playoffs, proving that even the surprising midseason replacement of longtime manager Mike Matheny wasn’t enough to flip the club’s fate after a middling 47-46 start to the season. After three consecutive years of seeing their season end with game number 162, the perennially successful Cardinals organization could be facing a sense of urgency to right the ship and get back to October in order to satiate the fan base.

It’s difficult to tell where that process begins. While the team is loaded with fan favorites and high-caliber players in every area of the roster, they’re also staring down one or more significant question marks in their rotation, bullpen, outfield and infield. With their current construction, they’ve got an obviously good team. Unfortunately that’s not likely to cut the mustard in a division where they’re likely to face stiff competition from the Cubs and the now-soaring Brewers, both of whom have younger cores.

One of the simplest avenues would be to add several wins in one fell swoop, by paying for one of the market’s elite talents. The Cardinals have been connected to Bryce Harper this offseason, and have been speculated upon as a potential landing spot for Manny Machado as well. Either would fit easily into the club’s puzzle, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them spend big on a marquee free agent after being putting in strong bids for Jason Heyward and David Price in offseasons past. It’s also worth pointing out that they worked out a deal to acquire Giancarlo Stanton last season before the slugger used his no-trade clause to veto the move to St. Louis. While any realistic offer to add one of the market’s two biggest prizes would surely dwarf any of the three aforementioned contract sums, the Redbirds’ involvement serves as an indicator that adding a superstar bat lies within the realm of possibility.

But the market for both Harper and Machado comes with strong competition, so we can easily assume that the Cards are exploring several contingency plans. For example, the club will likely be motivated to make an upgrade at the hot corner if Machado lands elsewhere. Carpenter is aging and probably profiles best at first base at this point in his career, and Josh Donaldson might be a fitting target after previous reports of interest from St. Louis. Even Mike Moustakas could serve as an interesting add. It’s also worth noting that the Yankees could explore the market for Rookie of the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar in order to address their rotation, though it’s questionable whether the Cards would have any interest in giving up the type of young arm necessary to get a deal done. (Last night’s trade of James Paxton to the Yankees could also shift New York’s focus from the trade market to free agency for their remaining rotation needs.)

Turning an eye to the outfield, St. Louis may have in-house alternatives to signing Harper, should they lose out in that auction. Rookie Harrison Bader certainly earned a foothold on the center field job, and Ozuna is a lock to hold down left field. While Harper’s presence in right would make for a formidable outfield alignment, Fowler probably can’t be counted out as dead weight after a single horrendous season. Beyond him, the club has former top prospect Tyler O’Neill champing at the bit to follow up on a promising debut.

Absent from that list of in-house options is slugger Jose Martinez, who had an excellent offensive showing but proved to be an outright defensive liability. With that in mind, it seems unlikely he’ll be a part of their outfield plans come springtime (though the possibility shouldn’t be entirely dismissed, either), and his performance at first base even begs questions about whether his glove can be relied upon at all. Overall, the returns on playing him were positive; he yielded an above-average fWAR figure thanks to his excellent contact and on-base skills coupled with above-average power. But if the Cardinals wanted to get creative, they could look to explore shopping the slugger to American League team that might value him a bit more highly thanks to the ability to protect him from being entirely exposed defensively. There’d certainly be a number of suitors.

The bullpen is perhaps the Cardinals’ most glaring area of concern. A number of statistical shortcomings (including the second-highest walk rate of any ’pen in the game) led to a -4.54 WPA figure that would have stood as the worst in all of baseball save for the disastrous showing by a largely inexperienced Marlins relief corps. Norris, who held down the closer role for most of the season and was their bullpen’s most consistent fixture, is set to depart as a free agent. If they don’t re-sign him, they’ll probably find it necessary to find at least one viable alternative on the free agent market.

Make no mistake, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be desperate to find anyone with closer experience. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak has said the Cardinals believe flamethrowing righty Jordan Hicks could succeed in that role (though as always that could simply be a negotiating technique), but that doesn’t mean he’ll actually have the job on opening day. The market is littered with former closers (e.g. Craig Kimbrel, Cody Allen, Kelvin Herrera), but it’s not difficult to imagine them instead rolling with Hicks and adding an upside lefty like Andrew Miller or Zach Britton. Speculation on specific names aside, it seems inevitable that the bullpen is an area to which they’ll allocate at least some money.

It’s worth noting that St. Louis will almost inevitably see some positive regression in relief performance, too. It’s more likely that Brett Cecil will rebound somewhat than that he’ll endure another career-low performance. Likewise, it’s improbable that the usually-durable Luke Gregerson will spend such an excessive amount of time on the DL. They won’t have Greg Holland walking nearly eight batters per nine innings across half a season’s worth of work, while Sam Tuivailala and Tyler Lyons represent other possible instances of addition by subtraction. Meanwhile John Brebbia, Dominic Leone and Dakota Hudson all had encouraging showings. In other words, while the Cardinals have some work to do in order to cover high-leverage innings, their situation isn’t quite as eyebrow-raising as a team like the Indians, for example.

Martinez, Wacha, Mikolas and rookie sensation Jack Flaherty seem like good bets to return to the rotation for 2019, while Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver and Adam Wainwright all in the mix for starts as well depending on health and performance. There’s room for improvement in their rotation, but it’s also not a bad cast overall; certainly other contenders are facing more daunting rotation questions. The situation gets murkier beyond 2019, though, as the contracts of Wacha, Mikolas and Wainwright all expire at season’s end. For that reason, we could see the Redbirds check in on free agents or trade targets whom they could keep in the fold for multiple seasons beyond the next. There’s no real urgency to do so, but there could easily be motivation given the right price and player.

The Cardinals are also an organization known for locking up many of their young players pre-arbitration, and this spring could present many opportunities to do just that. A wave of young players impressed last season, and the ever-opportunistic Cardinals brass could look to capitalize on the chance on some early extensions. Flaherty, Hicks, Bader and O’Neill could represent a strong core for years to come, and gaining additional control and cost-certainty over some of that group could allow the Cardinals to feel secure as some of their older veterans depart or retire in the near future.

Whatever path the Cardinals take this offseason, it seems unlikely to be a quiet one. With motivation to end an unusually long playoff drought, the organization will want to set new manager Mike Shildt up for success. They’ve got money to spend, a reasonable amount of prospect capital, and just enough positional flexibility on the roster to allow them to fit the right player into the picture if the opportunity arises. That should present a comfortable cavalcade of potential strategies to one simple end: add enough wins to remain competitive with a pair of formidable divisional opponents.

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