MLB Trade Rumors

We checked in last night at some position players who have done a lot in 2018 to boost their earning capacity in their first trip through arbitration. Now, we’ll turn to the hurlers. Remember, as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz has divined, the touchstones for pitchers are innings, ERA, and accumulation of outcome-based stats — i.e., wins for starters. Swartz also frequently cites strikeouts as a factor in analyzing comparables.

Changes in the game may start to shift the arb earning metrics. But there’s still reason to believe the above-cited factors will continue to drive the process for the time being. Here are ten starting pitchers whose big seasons set the stage for strong 2019 salaries:

• Aaron Nola, Phillies: It has been a dominant season for Nola, who has racked up 16 wins through 193 2/3 innings of 2.42 ERA pitching to this point. That adds to an already-impressive compilation of stats at this early stage of his career. It doesn’t seem he’ll capture the Cy Young vote, despite numbers sufficient to support a case, but even a top-three finish would bolster his arb resume.
• Luis Severino, Yankees (likely Super Two): He hasn’t held up the pace all season long, but Severino is still carrying very appealing overall numbers — including those of the type that play well in arbitration. In 179 1/3 innings, he has a 3.46 ERA with 17 wins and 207 strikeouts. He has cracked 200 K’s now in consecutive seasons.
• Sean Manaea, Athletics (likely Super Two): A shoulder injury diminishes Manaea’s future outlook and could keep him on the shelf for all of 2019. But other than robbing him of his final five starts, it doesn’t detract from a strong set of arb stats. He has reached 160 2/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA and compiled a dozen wins. Though he doesn’t get many strikeouts, Manaea also provided his agents with an ace in the hole when he spun a no-hitter earlier this season.
• Matthew Boyd, Tigers (possible Super Two): If he can notch another win, Boyd will reach a ten-spot. But that’s not the only point in his favor from a surprisingly solid statistical line. Boyd is likely to finish with over 175 frames and could yet draw his ERA to below the 4.00 line; regardless of exactly how things turn out, he’ll be sturdy in both departments. And he has already topped 150 strikeouts. All told, he’s done a ton to advance his case after entering the season with an unappealing stat line. Of course, he’ll have to cross his fingers that 2.136 days of service is enough to qualify as a Super Two.
• Jon Gray, Rockies: The candidates from this point forward all have some major warts. In this case, it’s an ugly 5.07 ERA that doesn’t match Gray’s strong peripherals. He’ll be dinged for that, no doubt, but also rewarded for tallying double-digit wins and over 160 innings with more still there for the taking.
• Vince Velasquez, Phillies: He’s a big strikeout threat, but Velasquez has missed a few starts and his results don’t match his peripherals. Still, 139 innings of 4.53 ERA ball, with eight wins and 156 Ks, ought to play fairly well — particularly if he can pad that line over the final few outings of the season.
• Tyler Anderson, Rockies: Pitching at altitude doesn’t help, to be sure, but Anderson’s 4.82 ERA isn’t going to be viewed with much favor. He also has only six wins. Still, he’s up to 162 1/3 innings and will be compensated for that fact alone.
• Jose Urena, Marlins: Almost an exact match for Anderson, except with the benefit of a pitcher-friendly park, Urena hasn’t been wildly impressive but is in line to get paid. He’s thrown precisely as many frames as Anderson and worked to a 4.21 ERA with a paltry seven wins.
• Steven Matz, Mets: It hasn’t always been pretty, and the home runs are a problem, but Matz is currently through 140 frames with a 4.18 ERA. Though he only has five wins, the southpaw could yet end the season with 150 punchouts.
• Junior Guerra (likely Super Two): Guerra gets the final spot over a few similarly situated hurlers because he has done so much to help himself this year. After a rough 2017 season, the late-blooming hurler’s future was in doubt. But he has taken the ball for 26 starts and two relief appearances, throwing 137 2/3 total innings of 4.18 ERA ball. He’s only sitting on six wins and 132 strikeouts, but the bottom-line results are solid.
• Honorable Mention: The Tigers’ Michael Fulmer is another likely Super Two, but he is headed in the wrong direction after generally quality work to open his career. In terms of outcomes, Mike Montgomery of the Cubs certainly deserved a nod, but he has only compiled 111 2/3 innings to this point and his 3.87 ERA is accompanied by only 74 strikeouts. It’s the opposite situation for Orioles righty Dylan Bundy, who’ll almost certainly end up with over 160 innings with more than a strikeout per frame but is also surrendering more than five earned runs per nine owing to an out-of-control home run rate.

No MLB team would evaluate a player based only upon his accumulation of traditional, outcome-oriented statistics. But one of the game’s primary mechanisms for determining compensation — the arbitration process — remains rooted in the kinds of numbers that once dominated the backs of baseball cards.

On occasion, that disconnect can boost a player’s arb earning power beyond the valuation of his actual value. Not long ago, for instance, Chris Carter was non-tendered after leading the National League in home runs. More frequently, the good or bad fortune that can skew the arb results simply means more or less money in the pocket of a given player who is good enough that his team will pay up regardless.

MLBTR continues to model arbitration salaries every fall. While there’s always some tweaking, the basic principles remain as they were when the arb projections began back in 2011. For hitters, the key factors — as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz ascertained many moons ago — are playing time and power. The accumulation of plate appearances, home runs, and runs batted in are the biggest factors in driving earning power through arbitration, even if those are far from the only things that go into making for a productive baseball player.

While prior years’ performances certainly factor in, we’re focused here on which players have done the most in 2018 to boost their next salaries. It took a few assumptions regarding Super Two qualification to make the list, but they seem rather likely to be correct when that’s finalized.

On to the list:

• Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians: Remember when Lindor was supposed to be an outstanding defender and baserunner with a high-contact profile at the plate? Yeah, he has done all of that and topped thirty home runs for the second-straight season, elevating his game along with his arb earning power in an exceptional campaign. Lindor also has 120 runs and 23 steals.
• Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Dingers and defense are the calling card for Story, who’s also getting on base at a .340+ clip after a dip last year. Also helping his cause? Story has driven in over a hundred runs and swiped 26 bags, so there are plenty of counting stats for his agents to make into exhibits if it makes it to a hearing.
• Trea Turner, SS, Nationals: It’s a shortstop rout at the top. Though Turner has modest power, he’s approaching twenty dingers and forty steals. He also continues to play on a more-or-less everyday basis while hitting at the top of the lineup. Topping 700 plate appearances will be another notable milestone to cite.
• Javier Baez, INF, Cubs: Who could forget Javy? This author, evidently. Somehow, I neglected to include the emergent Cubs star on the initial version of this list despite his season to remember, which includes a .294/.328/.566 slash, 32 home runs, and a NL-leading 105 runs batted in through 590 plate appearances. That output will drive a rewarding first trip through the arbitration process over the offseason to come.
• Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins: While he doesn’t deliver eye-popping counting stats and isn’t playing a premium defensive position, Rosario has done plenty in 2018 to boost his arbitration case. Through 589 plate appearances entering play today, he had racked up a .288/.323/.475 slash with a healthy combination of 23 homers, 86 runs, and 76 runs batted in.
• Kyle Schwarber, OF, Cubs: Similarly, Schwarber doesn’t have a gaudy dinger tally for a corner outfielder and has even less to point to in the other counting areas. But he has put the ball over the fence 25 times in just 478 plate appearances.
• Michael Conforto, OF, Mets: It’s hard to fault Conforto too much for what has been a relatively disappointing season in light of his outstanding 2017 effort. Given his serious shoulder procedure, it’s probably a success in the aggregate. And from an arb perspective, he has done fine for himself. With 25 long balls and 69 RBI through a hefty 578 plate appearances, all before a big game tonight, Conforto will earn well.
• Max Kepler, OF, Twins (likely Super Two): Though he hasn’t broken out, Kepler keeps putting up solid numbers that’ll play fairly well in arbitration. Despite a poor .228 batting average, he could end the year with twenty bombs and six hundred total plate appearances.
• Chris Taylor, INF/OF, Dodgers: No, this hasn’t been quite the follow-up that might have been hoped for after an out-of-nowhere 2017 season. But Taylor is still hitting at an above-average rate and might reach 600 PAs. He  also has 16 homers and nine steals on the year and could get a boost for playing up the middle defensively.
• Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers: He has now reached twenty dingers and will likely top at least 75 RBI, so he has some of the counting stats you like to see. He’ll also accumulate over 500 plate appearances. Though Mazara hasn’t yet taken the next step, his volume of work will pay out rather well in the arbitration process.
• Honorable mention: Tommy Pham of the Rays has been solidly above-average, but his stats don’t jump off the page for a corner outfielder. His excellent 2017 season will boost his earnings, but that’s not quite what this post is about. In 2018, thus far, he’s carrying a .425 slug with 17 homers, a dozen steals, and 53 RBI. Meanwhile, Matt Davidson of the White Sox is a likely Super Two player who isn’t going to get to 500 plate appearances, so he falls short of making the list. But he still warrants mention since he’s a sneaky pick here as a player who many likely did not know was already at arb eligibility. With twenty homers this year, he’s one away from 50 total on his resume, so he should command a relatively healthy salary despite his low plate-appearance tally and less-than-stellar overall performance to this point in his career.