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Cubs Reportedly Made Late Call To Arrieta Before Signing Darvish

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The Cubs “put in one last call” to Jake Arrieta before completing their six-year, $126MM deal with Yu Darvish, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports.  Heyman says Epstein respectfully inquired as to whether Arrieta would have been willing to accept “a deal believed to be similar to the one offered to Darvish should Darvish turn them down.”  According to Heyman, “while Arrieta surely appreciated the gesture, he wasn’t immediately prepared to accept a six-year deal for what was believed to be for a similar annual salary.” 

A careful reading of Heyman’s phrasing is advised, as he at no point states that the Cubs actually made a six-year offer to Arrieta.  Nor could one accurately say Arrieta turned down a six-year offer from the Cubs, as we erroneously did in an earlier version of this post.  Last Wednesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that “the Cubs and Arrieta barely even engaged in contract talks this winter.”  If that’s correct, it would be odd for Epstein to even have made an intimation of a six-year offer around that same time.

It isn’t uncommon for teams or their free agents to touch base with each other one final time before either side is on the verge of a move, either out of mutual respect and/or genuine interest to see if a deal could be reached.  (For one example from this winter, Carlos Santana’s representatives kept the Indians up to date on his market just to leave open the possibility that the Tribe could’ve found the payroll space to keep Santana in Cleveland.)  It also isn’t an uncommon tactic for a team to approach several similarly-valued free agents with similar contact offers to see which, if any, accepts first.

Certainly, it doesn’t seem that Arrieta or his agent Scott Boras felt the need to jump at the Cubs’ offer, as Boras is still confident his client will land a deal closer to the much higher price tag Boras was reportedly seeking earlier this offseason.  While the lack of free agent activity around the sport is “not traditional,” Boras said, “it seems normal (now). The free agent market is now under way. For me, it’s December 10th, not February 10th.”  Heyman gives an idea of Arrieta’s possible current asking price, writing, “Some might have seen the Cubs’ last-minute inquiry as a chance to end a difficult free-agent season happily, but others understood that Arrieta probably wasn’t going to take a much lower deal than Jon Lester’s in light of the fact that a strong case could be made he’s outperformed Lester over the last few years.”  Heyman’s “case” for Arrieta as compared to Lester is certainly worth debating.  Lester signed a six-year, $155MM deal with the Cubs on the eve of his 31st birthday, on the back of a huge walk year that resulted in a fourth-place Cy Young finish and a big market bidding war.  Arrieta turns 32 soon and is coming off a good, but not great, year.  He’s also battling a historically slow free agent market that is likely to leave at least a few big names disappointed.

Heyman lists the Brewers, Nationals, Phillies, Twins, and Cardinals as “the most logical teams” that could still make a play for Arrieta, though he notes that the latter two clubs seem like longer shots.  Milwaukee, Washington, and Philadelphia have all been linked to Arrieta at various points this winter and, now that Darvish is off the board, Arrieta might be the top target for a Brewers team that has money to spend and a need for front-of-the-rotation pitching.  The Phillies also have a glaring rotation need but may still be a year away from serious spending (their deal with Santana notwithstanding), while the Nats would have to carve out payroll space or simply accept a big luxury tax overage in order to sign Arrieta.

Twins Notes: Archer, Rays, Arrieta, Sano, Duke

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The latest buzz from the Twin Cities…

  • The Twins made the Rays a trade offer involving Chris Archer “as recently as two weeks ago,” La Valle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.  The two clubs have often been linked in rumors this winter as Minnesota explores seemingly all free agent and trade options for starting pitching, with Archer and fellow Ray Jake Odorizzi both drawing attention from the Twins.  Earlier reports stated that the Rays had interest in Max Kepler, and Neal notes that Kepler would be likely be targeted “as part of any package for Archer.”  Of course, it remains to be seen if the Twins or any team can meet the Rays’ enormous asking price for the controllable young ace; Archer said last month that he feels that he’ll still be pitching in Tampa Bay in the coming season.
  • Also from Neal’s piece, he lists several other free agent pitching options for the Twins, though Jake Arrieta doesn’t appear to be a likely candidate.  “The Twins’ chances of signing Arrieta…are remote,” Neal writes.  While Minnesota was willing to offer a five-year, $100MM+ deal to Yu Darvish, it doesn’t look like the club is willing to make such a splurge for Arrieta, and will instead look at less-expensive options.
  • Major League Baseball’s investigation into assault accusations leveled against Miguel Sano isn’t likely to be completed before the Twins begin full Spring Training exercises, Brian Murphy of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes.  Past league investigations (as per the domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy) have varied in length, so there isn’t any clear timeline for when the results of the Sano case could be made public.
  • With his career as a starting pitcher faltering in 2013, Zach Duke decided to embrace being a reliever after some blunt words from his wife Kristin, the newly-signed Twin tells Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.  “She kind of had to beat it through my head that I was done as a starter,” Duke said.  “My wife just kind of said, ’Listen, nobody is interested in you as a starter anymore. They’ve seen it, babe. There’s nothing changing. They know what they’re going to get as a starter, and nobody wants it anymore.’ ”  Kristin’s advice ended up turning her husband’s career around, particularly after a late-season run of success out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2013.  Over the last four seasons, Duke has a 2.85 ERA, 2.62 K/BB rate and a 10.0 K/9 over 198 2/3 relief innings.

NL East Notes: Nationals, Lincecum, Swarzak, Phillies

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The Nationals have made late-winter signings in the past, and there’s certainly opportunity for the club to do so again given the large number of available free agents, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman writes.  While the idea of the Nats signing Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, or Lance Lynn at a discounted price in March is tempting for a team that has toyed with upgrading the rotation, Zuckerman feels that Washington is more likely to add a reliever if a late signing is indeed in the cards.  On the whole, the Nats aren’t under any real pressure to make any sort of move, given their deep roster.

Here’s more from around the NL East…

  • The Mets have shown some interest in free agent right-hander Tim Lincecum this offseason, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports.  It’s possible they’ll be on hand for Lincecum’s upcoming showcase, though Heyman notes that it’s unclear which teams will join the previously reported Giants in attendance.  Lincecum didn’t pitch at all in 2017 and it has been some time since he has been both healthy and effective, though scouts from several clubs are expected to check out the former two-time Cy Young Award winner.
  • Anthony Swarzak’s two-year, $14MM contract from the Mets might not have been possible without some advice from Mickey Callaway, Swarzak tells the New York Daily News’ Peter Botte.  The right-hander and his new manager first crossed paths in 2015 when Swarzak was pitching for the Indians and Callaway was the team’s pitching coach, and it was Callaway who pressed upon Swarzak the importance of better conditioning.  “Most of [Callaway’s advice] was in the weight room and really dedicating myself off the field,” Swarzak said.  “I didn’t really want to hear it at the time. But I took his advice and here we are three years later and I’m better than ever and throwing harder and doing things athletically in my delivery that I couldn’t do before. I know that’s what he was trying to get at, and I thank him now.”  A major velocity boost helped Swarzak post a career year in 2017, with a 2.33 ERA, 10.6 K/9 and a 4.14 K/BB rate over 77 1/3 IP with the White Sox and Brewers.
  • The Phillies’ bench situation is broken down by NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury, who notes that defensive versatility will be at a premium for a team that may have just four bench spots available.  The Phils may need to deploy an eight-man bullpen to account for its injury-laden rotation, which leaves less room for position players in general, and especially players who can only fit in at one position (i.e. first baseman Tommy Joseph).  Two of the bench spots are already filled by outfielder Nick Williams and the backup catcher, leaving a utility infield job up for grabs in Spring Training and possibly another reserve outfield job as well.

5 Key Stories: 2/4/18 – 2/11/18

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Here are the biggest stories from the past week here at MLB Trade Rumors…

Yu DarvishDarvish goes to Wrigleyville: The offseason’s biggest free agent finally landed a new home, as Yu Darvish agreed to a six-year, $126MM deal with the Cubs.  Though several teams were linked to Darvish over the course of the winter, it took until almost mid-February in this unusually-quiet offseason for the star right-hander to sign —  this slow market, in fact, seemingly opened the door for the Cubs to pursue Darvish in the first place, as opposed to other pitching targets.  The addition of Darvish to an already-strong rotation of Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood bolsters Chicago’s chances of repeating as NL Central champions, despite other notable offseason upgrades for the Cardinals and Brewers.  It wouldn’t be surprising if Darvish’s contract leads to more movement on some of the other top members of the free agent pitching class, i.e. Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb.

Mets sign Todd Frazier: A prominent free agent position player also signed this week, with Todd Frazier remaining in New York but trading in the Yankee pinstripes for the orange-and-blue.  Frazier signed a two-year, $17MM deal with the Mets, a lower-than-expected contract that reflects the cool free agent market overall and, specifically, the relative lack of contenders looking for third base help.  The Mets themselves were mostly focused on second basemen (or multi-position infielders) this winter with Asdrubal Cabrera penciled in at the hot corner, though the Frazier signing came not long after Cabrera expressed a preference for playing second base.  With so much health and positional uncertainty dotting the Mets’ roster, the team will be helped by Frazier’s durability, not to mention his above-average defense and hitting.

Spring Training for free agents: With more that 100 free agents still unsigned, the MLB Players Association is finalizing plans for a separate Spring Training camp for these unattached players so they can prepare as normally as possible for the coming season.  Several details are still to be finalized about this camp, and not all free agents are expected to attend; some of Scott Boras’ clients, for instance, will train at the Boras Corporation’s own facilities.  The MLBPA camp is the most public example yet of what an unusual offseason this has been for free agent activity, and the war of words between the union and the league office about the alleged reasons for the dearth of signings continued this past week.

Bullpen signings: The Rangers and Rays each added some veteran depth at the backs of the bullpens, with Texas signing Seung-hwan Oh to a one-year, $2.75MM deal (with a $4.5MM club option for 2019) and Tampa Bay welcoming back Sergio Romo on a one-year pact that could pay Romo as much as $2.75MM.  Oh’s second year in Major League Baseball wasn’t nearly as successful as his first, though the former Cardinals closer has the opportunity to regain his old “Final Boss” status within a Rangers pen that lacks a clear answer for the ninth inning.  As for Romo, he could also be in line for some saves should the Rays pull the trigger on an Alex Colome trade.  Romo struggled with the Dodgers last season before regaining some of his old form after a July trade to Tampa Bay.

Arbitration results: ’Tis the season for arbitration hearings, and you can keep track of each case’s decision via the MLB Trade Rumors ArbTracker.  Of course, not all of the unsettled cases have actually gone to a hearing, as Jonathan Schoop and the Orioles avoided arbitration by agreeing to an $8.5MM salary for 2018 (for reference’s sake, Schoop filed for $9MM and the O’s countered with $7.5MM.  The Astros both reached agreement with a young star and saved themselves some work for next winter by inking a two-year, $24MM extension with George Springer that will cover the World Series MVP’s next two arb-eligible seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Severino, Machado, Brewers, Cards, Hosmer, Free Agency

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

Chris Devenski Switches Agencies

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Astros right-hander Chris Devenski has changed his representation and is now a client of MVP Sports Group, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports on Twitter. The switch for the 27-year-old Devenski comes on the cusp of his final pre-arbitration season.

Since making his debut in 2016, Devenski has been an incredible bargain for the Astros, having established himself as one of the game’s premier relievers. Across 110 appearances, including five starts, Devenski has racked up 189 innings of 2.38 ERA ball and posted 9.71 K/9 against 2.19 BB/9. Only one reliever, Brad Hand of the Padres, totaled more frames from the bullpen than Devenski’s 164 1/3 from 2016-17. He also ranked fifth among relievers in ERA (2.41), ninth in K/BB ratio (4.82) and 18th in infield fly rate (14 percent) during that span, thanks to a lethal fastball-slider-changeup combination.

While Devenski isn’t a closer, which could tamp down his value in arbitration, his penchant for effectively eating innings and amassing holds will help his cause when he first goes through the process next year (barring an extension, of course). He’s coming off a year in which he tied for 11th in holds (24), which helped the Astros run away with the AL West en route to their first World Series title.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/11/18

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The latest minor moves from around baseball:

  • Right-hander Josh Roenicke is joining the Uni-President 7-Eleven Lions in Taiwan, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. This will be the second straight season abroad for the 35-year-old Roenicke, who pitched in the Mexican League in 2017. Roenicke last appeared in the majors in 2013 as a member of the Twins, with whom he tossed 62 innings of 4.35 ERA ball. Prior to his Minnesota stint, Roenicke saw big league action with the Reds, Blue Jays and Rockies. Across 220 1/3 major league frames, he has logged a 4.17 ERA with 6.86 K/9, 4.78 BB/9 and a 46.7 percent groundball rate.

NL Notes: Marlins, Brewers, Yu, Cards, Mets

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The Marlins could add a veteran outfielder within the next week or so, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, who names free agents Melky Cabrera, Jon Jay and Jose Bautista as possibilities (though Jay isn’t atop their list, Frisaro notes). Miami is indeed “exploring” signing someone to a major league contract, according to president Michael Hill. Doing so would put the Marlins over the 40-man roster limit, but they’re “prepared to” jettison a player if necessary, per Hill. Notably, all of Cabrera, Jay and Bautista either have ties to Marlins decision-makers or Florida. Cabrera played with Marlins part-owner Derek Jeter with the Yankees from 2006-09, and manager Don Mattingly was on New York’s coaching staff during a portion of that stretch. Jay is a Miami native, meanwhile, and Bautista resides in the state. Any of the three would immediately become the most established outfielder on a rebuilding Marlins team that has traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna in separate deals this winter.

More from the NL:

  • While reports earlier this offseason painted the Brewers as aggressive Yu Darvish suitors, that wasn’t really the case, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Darvish, who agreed to join the NL Central rival Cubs on Saturday, “was never going to wear a Brewers uniform,” Haudricourt writes. With Darvish off the board, starter-needy Milwaukee could perhaps turn its focus to former Cub Jake Arrieta – who’s now the top pitcher available – but Haudricourt suggests it’s unlikely he’ll end up a Brewer.
  • The right shoulder issues that Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter played through last season are no longer hampering him, he tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “It’s not in the back of mind, like it was, not at all,” he said. “It’s not limiting me in any way. I can go out and do whatever. It is as if everything is normal.” Carpenter’s shoulder made it a challenge for him to swing a bat in 2017, yet he still managed to amass 622 plate appearances and slash a terrific .241/.384/.451. Although, Carpenter’s production did drop off from 2015-16, a 1,231-PA run in which he batted .271/.372/.505.
  • Injuries have beset promising Mets starters Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz during their careers, but they’re both optimistic heading into the new season, Kevin Kernan of the New York Post details in a pair of articles. Wheeler missed all of 2015-16 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and then threw just 86 1/3 innings of 5.21 ERA ball in his return last year. His season ended in July on account of a stress reaction in his right arm, but he now “feels great.” Wheeler explained his recovery process to Kernan, saying: “It needed two full months of rest. I got that, and then I’ve been taking these shots every day for the past six months. The medicine is called Forteo and it is supposed to strengthen your bones, so hopefully that helps.” The left-handed Matz logged a mere 66 2/3 frames of 6.08 ERA pitching in 2017, which concluded for him in August when he underwent surgery to reposition the ulnar nerve in his elbow.“They moved the nerve over, they take it out of the groove and they sew it down, basically they moved it out of the way,” Matz said of the procedure. “I feel really good this season,” he added.

Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Deal

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Unfortunately for those who follow baseball, the most popular topic in the sport this offseason has been the historically slow free-agent market. Upward of 100 players remain without contracts as spring training nears, but the good news is that the top available veteran finally came off the board Saturday.

The six-year, $126MM agreement the Cubs reached with right-hander Yu Darvish will hopefully lead to a flurry of signings in the near future. Regardless of how the majors’ other 29 teams react, it likely concludes the offseason heavy lifting for Cubs president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, who have added Darvish, two other starters (Tyler Chatwood and the injured Drew Smyly) and a pair of established relievers (Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek) to a club that ruled the National League Central in each of the previous two years.

Even without Darvish, the Cubs probably would have entered 2018 as the popular pick to win the division, though arguments could have been made for either the rival Brewers or Cardinals to seriously challenge for the crown. Both Milwaukee and St. Louis have been active this offseason after nearly making the playoffs last year. As things stand, though, they’re clearly looking up at a Cubs team with a set rotation (Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood) and an enviable group of position players. There was speculation earlier in the offseason that Chicago would deal from its lineup and/or farm system to boost the front of its rotation, but bringing in Darvish officially took that possibility out of play.

Along with retaining their position players and prospects, there are other other obvious benefits to picking up Darvish, including that he’s a tremendous starter who should boost the Cubs’ World Series chances in the coming years. The towering flamethrower, who emigrated from Japan in 2012, generally thrived with the Rangers and Dodgers, and there’s little reason to expect he’ll fail in Chicago in the near term. Speaking of the Dodgers, they rank as arguably the prominent concern in the NL for the Cubs (with Darvish’s help, they upended Chicago in the NLCS last season), so pilfering the 31-year-old from LA makes the signing all the more satisfying for Chicago. Plus, because Darvish was part of a midseason trade and wasn’t eligible for an offseason qualifying offer, reeling him in won’t cost the Cubs anything in draft-pick compensation or international bonus pool money.

With Darvish now in the mix, the Cubs will say goodbye to free agent Jake Arrieta, who did receive a QO after the season. When he heads elsewhere, Chicago will nab a pick after the second round of this year’s draft in return. Of course, even though Darvish is more hyped than Arrieta and will likely end up with the bigger guarantee of the two this winter, some may prefer the latter. The soon-to-be 32-year-old Arrieta wasn’t great last season, when he alarmingly lost some velocity, but he has been the more successful of the two in recent years. During his run as a Cub from 2014-17, Arrieta ranked third among starters in ERA (2.67), fifth in fWAR (18.5) and collected a Cy Young Award (2015).

Even if you’d rather have Darvish than Arrieta, the contract comes with some risk for the Cubs (which you’d expect with all big-money accords). Specifically, it’s in the form of an opt-out clause after the 2019 season. If Darvish pitches well enough over the next two years to vacate the deal in favor of another trip to the market, his departure would create a sizable hole for a Chicago team that hasn’t had great success at developing starters during the Epstein era, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently detailed (subscription required).

On the other hand, should he go downhill during the next two years and stick with his current contract, it could leave the Cubs with another expensive, declining veteran to join Lester (guaranteed $25MM after 2019, including a $10MM buyout for 2021) and outfielder Jason Heyward (guaranteed $86MM from 2020-23). The Cubs took the opt-out risk on Heyward when they signed him to an $184MM contract prior to 2016, when he was one of the sport’s foremost all-around players. Since then, his offensive game has gone in the tank, making it unlikely he’ll leave when he’s allowed to after next season or potentially at the end of the 2019 campaign.

To the Cubs’ credit, the $126MM guarantee looks quite reasonable for Darvish, and at $21MM per year, it’s palatable from a luxury tax standpoint. During a normal winter, Darvish may have ended up with a much wealthier contract. In fact, at the start of what has since turned into a bizarre offseason, MLBTR predicted a six-year, $160MM payday for Darvish, while former FanGraphs writer Dave Cameron forecast an even richer figure ($168MM) over the same term. All things considered, then, it seems the Cubs made out rather well with this move – one they hope will help guide them back to World Series glory in 2018. What are your thoughts?

(Poll link for App users)

AL Notes: Orioles, McHugh, Indians, Brantley, White Sox

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The Orioles have inquired about the availability of Astros right-hander Collin McHugh, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. Although McHugh could be the odd man out of a loaded Houston rotation this year, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the reigning champions aren’t in a rush to trade him. Nevertheless, with multiple holes in their rotation and a reported unwillingness to spend big to address their staff, it makes sense that the Orioles are interested in McHugh. After all, the 30-year-old has been a quality starter with the Astros since 2014 and is under arbitration control at affordable prices through 2019. He’ll earn in the neighborhood of $5MM this season.

Here’s more from the American League…

  • Indians outfielder Michael Brantley’s status for Opening Day is up in the air, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com suggests on Twitter. Brantley underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle in October, which came on the heels of a 90-game season for the 30-year-old. It was the second straight abbreviated campaign for Brantley, who missed all but 11 games in 2016 on account of right shoulder issues. To Brantley’s credit, he fared respectably across 375 plate appearances last year (.299/.357/.444), leading the Indians to exercise his $12MM option for 2018 early in the offseason.
  • Aside from keeping Brantley and signing Yonder Alonso, the Indians haven’t spent much this winter. Regarding the Tribe’s quiet offseason, one team’s vice president told ESPN’s Buster Olney, “They’re not spending, and that probably means they feel like they’re overextended [financially].” Even though the Indians have been among baseball’s elite in recent years, drawing fans to Progressive Field has still been a challenge. Thanks in part to that, Olney posits that small-market Cleveland may have difficulty maintaining its relatively high payroll going forward, which could soon force the team to engage in a sell-off similar to the one Pittsburgh has orchestrated this winter. The Indians will probably lose top relievers Andrew Miller and Cody Allen to free agency next offseason, observes Olney, who writes that rising prices for their under-control core players could make it tough for them to adequately address other areas of their roster.
  • The White Sox have hired Dave Duncan as a pitching consultant, Scott Merkin of MLB.com tweets. This will be the second stint with the White Sox for the 72-year-old Duncan, who was previously on the team’s coaching staff from 1983-86. He’ll now join pitching coach Don Cooper as the second highly respected pitching guru under Chicago’s employ. Duncan is perhaps best known for his run at St. Louis’ pitching coach from 1996-2011, a period in which the Cardinals won a pair of World Series titles and regularly boasted one of the league’s best staffs.

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