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MLBTR Poll: Who’s The Favorite In The NL West?

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We’re now through substantially more than one third of the regular season. The competitive picture is still unfolding, to be sure, and the trade deadline promises to bring notable roster changes as well. But the general outlines of the postseason race are at least beginning to reveal themselves.

In most divisions, there’s a yawning gap at some point that separates the still-competitive teams from those that seem too far back to mount a charge. In fact, there are spreads of at least 6.5 games present in every division … except for one.

With ~60 games in the books, the NL West has played itself to a near-standstill.

It wasn’t long ago that the D-Backs were sprinting ahead of the pack with the Rockies chasing after them like an eager young pup. The Dodgers were seemingly stuck in second gear, while the Giants were flying like a wounded duck.

If you can forgive that hodgepodge of metaphors and similes, the general picture was one in which last year’s pair of surprise NL Wild Card winners from Arizona and Colorado were doubling down. Meanwhile, the old guard California clubs were not just turning in a mediocre showing on the field, but were facing increasingly worrisome injury situations.

Wait … are we leaving someone out? Ah yes, the Padres. Despite making a big free-agent investment in Eric Hosmer and extending (rather than trading) closer Brad Hand, the San Diego organization was not even seen as a dark-horse contender in all but the most optimistic quarters. And the team’s early record reflected that questionable outlook, making it easy to assume at the time that they wouldn’t factor into the race except as a potential late-season spoiler.

And now? Well, regression has taken its revenge, and done so swiftly. The teams are lined up neatly in a row, one behind the next. Even the Padres are within 4.5 games of first — closer than all but 8 other teams chasing leaders in other divisions. There’s a rather tight spread of talent distribution, too, particularly with the Dodgers losing Corey Seager for the year and Clayton Kershaw for an as-yet-undetermined stretch.

So, with something approaching a reset in the NL West, which team do you see as the favorite the rest of the way? (Team order randomized; app users can access the poll by clicking here.)

Who's the favorite in the NL West?
Dodgers 40.68% (2,827 votes)
D-Backs 23.38% (1,625 votes)
Giants 15.32% (1,065 votes)
Rockies 11.97% (832 votes)
Padres 8.65% (601 votes)
Total Votes: 6,950

Latest On Braves’ Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuna

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The Braves have provided updates on the health of righty Jose Ramirez and outfielder Ronald Acuna, each of whom presently resides on the 10-day DL. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported the news (Twitter links).

Ramirez, 28, had been one of the team’s go-to late-inning arms in 2017, when he pitched to a 3.19 ERA in 62 innings. But he stumbled early in the current campaign, allowing a dozen earned runs in just 6 1/3 innings while issuing eight walks against seven strikeouts. Perhaps it wasn’t surprising when it turned out that Ramirez was dealing with a shoulder problem.

Unfortunately, the progress made to date now appears to be at risk. Ramirez had been working back to form but was forced to halt his first live batting practice session today. It’s not clear at this point whether he’ll need to go back to resting or perhaps give throwing another go, but that’s obviously suboptimal news under the circumstances. Continued uncertainty surrounding Ramirez certainly enhances the Braves’ potential need for relievers at the deadline.

As for Acuna, there’s still no reason to fear that he has a significant injury. But he’s still not leaping back to action quite as promptly as seemed possible in the wake of the scary knee hyperextension he suffered while running through the bag at first base.

For the time being, Acuna is still just working on physical improvements. He may resume baseball activities as soon as next week, though that’s not written in stone. Notably, O’Brien adds that the team now anticipates that Acuna will require a rehab assignment. While the Braves are no doubt still grateful that Acuna somehow avoided a much more serious problem, it will likely still be a while before he’s back in action at the MLB level.

2018 MLB Draft Results — Compensation & Competitive Balance Round A

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With the traditional first-round picks in the books, we’ll use this post to track the “sandwich” selections that come before the second round: compensatory picks awarded to clubs that lost QO-declining free agents as well as Round A of the competitive balance picks (tradeable choices that are awarded by lottery to low-revenue/small market clubs).

Here are the picks:

Compensation Picks

31. Rays: Shane McClanahan, LHP, University of South Florida (FL)
32. Rays: Nick Schnell, OF, Roncalli HS (IN)
33. Royals: Jackson Kowar, RHP, University of Florida
34. Royals: Daniel Lynch, LHP, University of Virginia
35. Indians: Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Central HS (GA)

Competitive Balance (Round A) Picks

36. Pirates: Gunnar Hogland, RHP, Dayspring Christian Academy (FL)
37. Orioles: Cadyn Grenier, SS, Oregon State University
38. Padres: Xavier Edwards, SS, North Broward Prep HS (FL)
39. Diamondbacks: Jake McCarthy, OF, University of Virginia
40. Royals: Kris Bubic, LHP, Stanford University
41. Indians: Lenny Torres Jr., RHP, Beacon HS (NY)
42. Rockies: Grant Lavigne, 1B, Bedford HS (NH)
43. Cardinals: Griffin Roberts, RHP, Wake Forest University

Twins To Sign Cameron Rupp

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The Twins have reached agreement on a minor-league deal with catcher Cameron Rupp, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter). It seems he is already in Rochester readying to begin play with the organization.

Rupp, 29, will boost the Minnesota catching depth with Jason Castro expected to miss the rest of the year. Presently, the organization is utilizing Mitch Garver and Bobby Wilson behind the dish at the major-league level.

Though he has yet to see time in the big leagues this year, Rupp was a fixture behind the dish over the past three seasons for the Phillies. In 1,049 plate appearances over that span, he slashed .236/.301/.417 and swatted 39 home runs.

Still, Philadelphia cut Rupp loose late in Spring Training after agreeing initially agreeing to avoid arbitration. The receiver caught on with the Rangers organization shortly thereafter. He is off to a nice start with the bat this year, posting a .264/.328/.509 batting line over 125 Triple-A plate appearances before opting out of his contract recently.

2018 MLB Draft Results — First Round

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The 2018 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll track the first-round picks as they come in — starting with the first 30 picks (worst-to-first, and excepting teams that sacrificed picks to sign qualifying offer-declining free agents). We’ll fire up another post for the “sandwich” choices: selections awarded to clubs that lost QO-declining free agents and competitive balance Round A picks.

Here are the picks:

  1. Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn University
  2. San Francisco Giants: Joey Bart, C, Georgia Institute of Technology
  3. Philadelphia Phillies: Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State
  4. Chicago White Sox: Nick Madrigal, 2B, Oregon State University
  5. Cincinnati Reds: Jonathan India, 3B, University of Florida
  6. New York Mets: Jarred Kelenic, OF, Waukesha West HS (WI)
  7. San Diego Padres: Ryan Weathers, LHP, Loretto HS (TN)
  8. Atlanta Braves: Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS (FL)
  9. Oakland Athletics: Kyler Murray, OF, Oklahoma University
  10. Pittsburgh Pirates: Travis Swaggerty, OF, University of South Alabama
  11. Baltimore Orioles: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Central Heights HS (TX)
  12. Toronto Blue Jays: Jordan Groshans, INF, Magnolia HS (TX)
  13. Miami Marlins: Connor Scott, OF, Plant HS (FL)
  14. Seattle Mariners: Logan Gilbert, RHP, Stetson University
  15. Texas Rangers: Cole Winn, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
  16. Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS (AZ)
  17. Los Angeles Angels: Jordyn Adams, OF, Green Hope HS (NC)
  18. Kansas City Royals: Brady Singer, RHP, University of Florida
  19. St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Gorman, 3B, O’Connor HS (AZ)
  20. Minnesota Twins: Trevor Larnach, OF, Oregon State University
  21. Milwaukee Brewers: Brice Turang, SS, Santiago HS (CA)
  22. Colorado Rockies: Ryan Rolison, LHP, University of Mississippi
  23. New York Yankees: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville HS (GA)
  24. Chicago Cubs: Nico Hoerner, SS, Stanford University
  25. Arizona Diamondbacks: Matt McLain, SS, Beckman HS (CA)
  26. Boston Red Sox: Triston Casas, 3B, American Heritage HS (FL)
  27. Washington Nationals: Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island HS (FL)
  28. Houston Astros: Seth Beer, 1B, Clemson University
  29. Cleveland Indians: Noah Naylor, C, St. Joan of Arc HS (Ontario)
  30. Los Angeles Dodgers: J.T. Ginn, RHP, Brandon HS (MS)

Tigers Select Casey Mize With First Overall Draft Pick

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The Tigers have selected right-hander Casey Mize with the first overall pick of the 2018 Rule 4 amateur draft. The 21-year-old hurler just wrapped up his junior year at Auburn University.

Mize was not even drafted out of high school, so it has been a meteoric rise over his three years in college. Then again, he hasn’t exactly needed to streak up the draft boards over the months leading up to the draft. Instead, Mize planted himself at the top early on and has remained a clear consensus 1-1 option ever since.

Now a polished starter who’s said to possess three swing-and-miss offerings, Mize just turned in a massive season for Auburn. In 16 outings, he threw 109 2/3 innings of 2.95 ERA ball, racking up a whopping 151 strikeouts while issuing only a dozen walks.

The expectation is that Mize will move quickly through the Detroit farm. He’s certainly an interesting addition to a system that features several promising starters among its best-graded prospects. If all goes as hoped, perhaps the rebuilding organization won’t have to wait long for the arrival of a wave of pitching talent at the MLB level.

Diamondbacks Select Contract Of Kristopher Negron

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The Diamondbacks have selected the contract of utilityman Kristopher Negron, per a club announcement. Socrates Brito was optioned to Triple-A to create active roster space; the club had an open 40-man spot, so no move was needed there.

Negron, 32, saw brief time in the majors last year with the Snakes and has spent some time there previously with the Reds. All told, he’s a .214/.296/.338 hitter in 301 MLB plate appearances. And Negron has never shown much more than that with the bat in the upper minors; in parts of nine seasons at Triple-A, he carries a .245/.308/.378 slash.

The appeal here for the D-Backs, clearly, isn’t about boosting the offense. Rather, Negron will help fill in wherever needed, given his professional experience all over the field.

MLB Draft Rumors: Mize, Bart, Rankings, Mock Drafts

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The annual MLB amateur draft is less than an hour away, and the Tigers will be on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick at 7:00pm ET tonight. Those interested in doing some research on tonight’s draft will want to check out Baseball America’s Top 500, MLB.com’s Top 200, Law’s 2018 big board and Fangraphs’ sortable draft board, each of which contain scouting info and insight into the prospects in this year’s class. (The MLB.com and Fangraphs list are free of charge, while BA and ESPN require a subscription.)

Here are some rumblings leading up to tonight’s event:

  • The latest mock drafts (updated as of 5:48pm CST) from MLB.com, ESPN, Fangraphs and Baseball America all have Auburn right-hander Casey Mize going to the Tigers with the No. 1 pick tonight. While there have been occasional rumblings about other players at the top of the draft, ESPN’s Keith Law calls Mize the “clear 1-1 talent” in the 2018 draft. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, meanwhile, tweets that with just a couple of hours until the draft begins, Mize remains favored to go first overall. For those interested in a more in-depth look at the Auburn ace, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com recently interviewed both Mize and his college coaches about the right-hander’s rise from an undrafted high school talent to the presumptive top overall pick in the 2018 draft.
  • In their earlier mock draft at Fangraphs, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel lay out a scenario in which Mize could fall to the Phillies with the third pick, though they caution that it’s not considered likely. However, the two hear that Mize’s camp is “driving a hard bargain” and that the Giants aren’t interested in going over slot for him at No. 2. The Phillies, Longenhagen and McDaniel posit, could put pressure on the Tigers by communicating to Mize’s camp that they’re willing to offer a considerably over-slot deal. In that scenario, the Tigers could take Bart first overall, with high school right-hander Cole Winn going second to the Giants and Mize going third to the Phillies. If the Tigers do take Mize, which is what McDaniel and Longenhagen project, then the Giants would very likely select Bart with the second overall pick.
  • There’s always loads of potential intrigue as the draft unfolds, of course. Another pick to keep an eye on is number six, which is held by the Mets. ESPN.com’s Keith Law posits on Twitter that the New York organization may work out a deal with infielder Noah Naylor that would keep some of the team’s first-round bonus allocation to apply toward other selections. Of course, Law’s latest mock predicts outfielder Jaarred Kelenic will be the choice. Mike Puma of the New York Post agrees (via Twitter) that the club is likely to use its selection on a position player, though he suggests Jonathan India as a likely target.

Anthony Banda To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Rays lefty Anthony Banda will undergo Tommy John surgery, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Given the typical year-plus recovery timeline for this procedure, Banda will likely miss the remainder of the current season and most or all of 2019.

Banda came to Tampa Bay over the offseason as a key part of the three-team swap that sent outfielder Steven Souza to the Diamondbacks. He had turned into a notable prospect in the Arizona system, which he joined along with Mitch Haniger following the 2014 deadline deal that sent Gerardo Parra to the Brewers.

With the news, Banda will join another recent top pitching prospect acquired in a significant, relatively recent trade — Jose De Leon — on the road to a return from a TJ procedure. De Leon will surely hope to be ready at some point relatively early in the 2019 season. It’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Banda will be able to join him late next year, though of course the Rays will surely exercise caution.

In weighing a timeline, it’s also worth bearing in mind that Banda is still not established at the game’s highest level. The 24-year-old southpaw struggled in his first taste of the majors last year, but gave the Rays 14 2/3 useful innings this year, over which he allowed six earned runs while compiling ten hits against three walks. Banda also showed a health (95.4 mph average) heater, up from his numbers in 2017.

In truth, Banda’s limited MLB showing isn’t yet sufficient to draw any conclusions about his future. He has pitched well this year at Triple-A, though, after putting up middling numbers there in 2017. Through 42 frames over eight starts, he owns a 3.64 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and a 38.4% groundball rate.

The move puts another dent in Tampa Bay’s rotation depth, both for the present season and beyond. More immediately, the organization has at least finally welcomed Nathan Eovaldi back. And Yonny Chirinos is also off of the DL, though he has been optioned to Triple-A despite a solid start in his season in the majors.

Yankees Option Tommy Kahnle

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The Yankees announced after Game 1 of today’s doubleheader that they’ve activated right-hander Adam Warren from the 10-day disabled list and optioned right-hander Tommy Kahnle to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

The decision to send Kahnle to the minors would’ve seemed unfathomable following the 2017 season. The flamethrowing righty was a huge part of a July blockbuster with the White Sox and pitched to a combined 2.59 ERA with 13.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 0.57 HR/9 with a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate in 62 2/3 innings. Kahnle trailed only Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and teammate Chad Green in terms of K-BB%, and his 16.7 percent swinging-strike rate was the eighth-best of any qualified reliever in baseball.

So far, 2018 has been an entirely different story for the 28-year-old Kahnle, however. His average fastball velocity plummeted from 97.9 mph to 95 mph, and while that’s still plenty of heat, the near-three mile per hour drop is concerning all the same. Kahnle spent more than a month on the disabled list due to tendinitis in his right shoulder, and he’s allowed seven runs on six hits and a troubling 10 walks in nine innings when healthy. In addition to those 10 free passes, Kahlne has also snapped off a pair of wild pitches and seen his first-pitch strike rate drop from 62.1 percent in 2017 to 52.3 percent in 2018.

While it seems likely to be a short-term stay, the potential for service time ramifications does exist. Kahnle entered the season with just three years, 15 days of big league service time, meaning he’d need 157 days of service in 2018 to reach four years of service time and stay on track to become a free agent following the 2020 season. If he spends more than a month in the minors, that timeline would change, though it seems reasonable to expect the Yankees are hoping for a minimal stay in Scranton to get Kahnle’s command back on track.

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