Reds’ Managerial Search Enters Second Round
The Reds are well into their search for a new manager, as has long been anticipated. Interim skipper Jim Riggleman took over after Bryan Price was fired and was at the helm for most of the 2018 season, but the club is determined to consider an array of candidates before naming the next full-time dugout leader. As we did last year with other openings of this kind, we’ll use this post to track the early developments in the hiring process in Cincinnati.
Latest Update — Oct. 20
- Per Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi (Twitter link), Giants VP of Player Development and former MLB third baseman David Bell is the now the favorite to be offered the job.
- The Reds informed Jim Riggleman today that he will not return as manager, according to William Ladson on Twitter.
Earlier Update — Oct. 17
- Ausmus and Girardi are also still under consideration, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Both are slated for additional interviews, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon adds on Twitter. It seems they’ll join Bell to make up a group of three finalists, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link).
- The Reds conducted interviews with the 12 candidates listed below and won’t speak with anyone else, per John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that there’s a growing sense that David Bell “has the inside track,” though he notes that Rocco Baldelli’s interview went “extremely well,” too, placing Baldelli “strongly in the mix.”
Click to view full overview of managerial search:
NL Notes: Wainwright, Robles, Braves
37-year-old Adam Wainwright, who re-upped with the club on a one-year pact earlier this month, was elated with the progress of his balky right elbow over the season’s last two months, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch details in a lengthy overview of the situation. Wainwright, who had Tommy John surgery in 2011 and has dealt with discomfort in his elbow on multiple occasions, has apparently had issues with “deep” bone bruises in the area for a number of years now, an ailment for which he could not seem to find a solution. That appears to have changed, as Goold notes, with Wainwright’s adoption of a new, longer arm swing in the middle of his delivery. “Whole new avenues are back in play that I haven’t been able to do in years,” Wainwright said. “I left this season, I left that last start feeling motivated and feeling better than I have in a long time.” The stats do seem, at least in part, to reinforce Wainwright’s perspective: in 22 1/3 IP after his return from the DL on September 10, Wainwright struck out 25 batters and walked just three. His 8.93 K/9, albeit in an extremely small, 40 1/3 IP sample, ranks as the highest in his career, though the rest of his peripherals (a 4.02 BB/9 that led to a career-worst 106 xFIP-) leave little to shout about.
In other news from other around the league . . .
- Mark Zuckerman of MASN peers into Victor Robles’ place in a potentially crowded Washington outfield next season. The consensus top five overall prospect’s status as a coveted trade chip will likely be on hold until the impending Bryce Harper sweepstakes have reached their conclusion, it seems, as the Nats will almost certainly plug Robles into the center field role should Harper depart. Zuckerman notes that Robles, in addition to possessing a near limitless all-around ceiling, is a “gregarious” personality who brims with confidence in all aspects of his play. Indeed, after an uninspiring start to the season at Triple-A Syracuse and in a short stint with the parent club, the 21-year-old unleashed his dormant offensive ability, slashing .359/.405/.718 over the season’s last two weeks after recovering from a hyperextended elbow suffered earlier in the year. The Nats, of course, could both re-sign Harper and make room for Robles by trading outfielder Adam Eaton, though that scenario does not seem to be on the club’s table at the moment.
- MLB.com’s Mark Bowman outlines the Braves’ prospective payroll next season, estimating that the club will have “at least” $60MM with which to maneuver this offseason. Atlanta, who boasts one of the game’s deepest farm systems, a unit stacked with high-upside starting pitchers of all kinds, could look to the trade market – as GM Alex Anthopoulos seemed to suggest in a recent summit with reporters – to address a thin big league rotation and question marks behind the plate and (at one spot) in the corner outfield. Third base, manned mostly by a resurgent Johan Camargo, who slashed just .278/.333/.372 across parts of seven minor league seasons, could also be an area of need, as projection systems will likely not be kind to the 24-year-old. For his part, David O’Brien of The Athletic believes the Braves will have far less than Bowman’s $60MM estimate to spend, placing the figure at nearly half the stated mark.
The Mets’ GM Search
Not long after longtime general manager Sandy Alderson stepped down from his post with the Mets earlier this summer, it became clear that the organization would conduct an extensive search to tab a new head of baseball operations. Assistant GM John Ricco and special assistants J.P. Ricciardi and Omar Minaya have been overseeing the team’s baseball operations department on an interim basis, but the Mets are now formally in search of a new department leader.
There have been multiple reports that owner Fred Wilpon is eyeing a more traditional general manager with scouting-based acumen (an “old school” type of executive, to use a broad description), while his son, COO Jeff Wilpon, is more focused on hiring an analytically-inclined executive that more closely aligns with recent industry trends. Per Jon Heyman of Fancred, the Mets are leaving some candidates with the sense that the new hire won’t quite enjoy a full slate of baseball ops power. As he puts it, the impression is that Omar Minaya or one of the other existing assistant GMs could retain control over player development functions. Team sources that spoke with Heyman denied that was the case, however.
As we’ve done with some recent managerial searches, we’ll track the majority of the updates in the Mets’ GM search here as they navigate the early phases of the process.
Latest Update — 10/20
- Doug Melvin and agent Brodie Van Wagenen are the favorites to land the job, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.
- Ng and Bloom are still being considered for the position, per Puma.
- Littlefield, if not already eliminated, is considered a “long shot” at this juncture.
- Close and former Mets GM Omar Minaya can’t “completely be ruled out” at this time, per Puma and Joel Sherman.
Latest Update — 10/19
- It seems that agent Casey Close is also still in the mix. Martino tweets that he, Van Wagenen, Bloom, Ng, and Melvin appear to make up the finalists.
- LaRocque is no longer under consideration, Marc Carig of The Athletic reports (Twitter link).
- Agent Brodie Van Wagenen is still in the picture after receiving an initial interview, per Carig (via Twitter). (Carig initially tweeted the opposite, but amended his report.)
- The Mets only consider Littlefield a “fringe” contender to land the position, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.
- DiComo now tweets that Watson did not receive a call for a second interview and is no longer in the running for the position.
Earlier Updates — 10/19
- The Mets have interviewed six to eight candidates and will enter the second round of interviews next week, per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (Twitter link). Fred Wilpon will join the interview process in place of John Ricco for the second wave of sitdowns. DiComo notes that Littlefield, Bloom, LaRocque, Watson, Melvin and Ng are the six known candidates to date.
- It’s not fully clear whether all six to eight candidates who’ve interviewed are ticketed for a followup session, though. Andy Martino f SNY.tv writes that the Mets have not yet determined which of the first round interviewees will be spoken with next week. Interestingly, Puma tweets that the Mets plan to make each finalist available to the media after his or her second interview is completed, so it seems as though there’ll be some transparency in the latter stages of the process.
Twins Complete First Round Of Managerial Search
The Twins have embarked upon a search for a new skipper after the somewhat surprising decision to remove Paul Molitor from the post. He had been a holdover appointee from the prior front office regime. The current hiring process, then, will represent the first opportunity for chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine to install their own preferred voice in the dugout.
As we have done with other openings of this kind, we’ll use this post to track the early developments in the hiring process in Minnesota.
First-Round Interviews
- The Twins have interviewed Astros bench coach Joe Espada, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. (Fancred’s Jon Heyman had previously noted the Twins’ interest in doing so.) Espada is in his first season as Alex Cora’s successor in that role, and he’s already drawn reported interest from the Angels and the Rangers in their own managerial searches.
- Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde has interviewed with the Twins, per 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link). The 45-year-old served as the Cubs’ first base coach for three years prior to ascending to bench coach. He has five years of minor league managing under his belt and has been tied to numerous managerial postings around the league.
- Rays field coordinator Rocco Baldelli has interviewed, too, Wolfson tweets. Still just 37, he’s spent four years on the Rays’ staff since retiring as a player earlier this decade. Baldelli’s role as field coordinator was created in advance of the just-completed campaign and represented an expansion of his duties, seemingly to encompass some more forward-thinking approaches for the famously experimental organization.
- Giants bench coach Hensley Meulens has interviewed with the Twins, per Wolfson. Meulens has been a popular candidate in previous managerial searches and has 15 years of coaching experience –mostly as a hitting coach. The Curacao native has also managed Team Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic.
- Wolfson adds that current Twins bench coach Derek Shelton has also interviewed. He has ample experience in MLB dugouts, but only just finished his first season in his current role. Hired away from the Blue Jays, where he functioned as a quality control coach, Shelton spent the prior dozen years as a hitting coach with the Rays and Indians.
- The Twins have already held a meeting with hitting coach James Rowson, per La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. While his coaching background is somewhat specialized in the hitting arena, Rowson has obviously drawn positive attention from the front office. As Neal describes it, he’s an “ebullient” presence in the clubhouse.
Expected To Interview
- Also per Neal, the Twins would like to host chats with recently retired David Ross. A long-time backstop, Ross played as recently as 2016, wrapping up his playing career with the World Series-champion Cubs.
Other Potential Candidates
- The Twins at least performed some background work on Brewers bench coach Pat Murphy, Wolfson (via Twitter). Murphy is obviously tied up for the moment assisting manager Craig Counsell in the Milwaukee organization’s postseason run. The former interim Padres manager has held the Brewers bench coach position since the 2016 campaign.
- Wolfson also tabs Indians bench coach Brad Mills as a name to watch. (Twitter link.) His prior experience with Falvey, who came over from the Cleveland front office, certainly makes Mills an obvious potential candidate. Whether he’ll be asked to interview isn’t yet known. With the Indians’ season just drawing to a close, though, that seems reasonably likely to take place.
Not Under Consideration
NL Notes: Marlins, Machado, Rockies
MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweeted today that the Marlins have announced a press conference for Monday at Marlins Park. No news yet as to the specifics, but with Derek Jeter and President of Baseball Ops Michael Hill planned to be in attendance, speculation is there will be news regarding the Mesa brothers. Still, it’s only speculation as of now, and we’ll have to wait for tomorrow’s press conference to confirm the specifics. Stay tuned.
In the meantime, a couple of other notes…
- Fancred’s Jon Heyman talks to executives around the league about Manny Machado’s upcoming free agency and whether or not his recent antics will adversely affect his earning potential. Machado’s recent character issues trouble many around the league, but his on-field talent continues to speak for itself. One executive suggests the Phillies may be the only team willing to give Machado the monster payday many have expected, but at this stage any specific prediction remains speculative. People close to Machado have suggested he wants to return to the East Coast – specifically the Yankees – but it remains to be seen how exactly the market will shape up for the talented infielder.
- Kyle Newman of the Denver Post suggests the Rockies could push right-handers Yency Almonte and DJ Johnson into bigger roles next season. Newman presuppose the departures of Seunghwan Oh, back to Korea, and Adam Ottavino to free agency, but they’re interesting names to dig into regardless. Baseball America listed the 6’3” Almonte as the 8th best prospect in the Rockies system last season prior to his debut in June, while Johnson is an undrafted 29-year-old rookie having spent time in four organizations. Almonte was a starter in the minors, but a 97-98 mph fastball and power slider certainly play well late in games if that’s how the Rockies choose to deploy him. Johnson’s stuff isn’t as overpowering, but he nevertheless produced a gaudy 13.66 K/9 while pitching in Triple-A this season. That nearly doubles his strikeout rate of the previous two seasons, but he kept it up across 6.1 innings as a September callup (12.79 K/9). Neither Almonte nor Johnson are locks to take on major roles in the Rockies bullpen, but especially in a bullpen with quite a few overpriced, underperforming veterans already on the books, they represent valuable low-cost options that manager Bud Black may turn to in 2019.
AL Notes: Verlander, McCullers Jr., Orioles
Justin Verlander doesn’t plan on shutting it down any time soon, it seems. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle quotes Verlander in a tweet: “I’m going to play until the wheels fall off.” In 2018, Verlander surpassed 200 innings and 200 strikeouts for the third straight season while accumulating 6.8 fWAR and achieving a career-best 3.03 xFIP. In other words, the wheels are secure. Verlander’s current deal runs one more season in Houston at $28MM, after which he will become a free agent in advance of his age-37 season.
More from around the American League…
- In another quote posted by Rome (via Twitter), starter Lance McCullers Jr. suggests that he and the Astros will be examining the state of his current health in the next couple of weeks. With rumblings about his arm health, McCullers addressed a potential injury by admitting that he’s “been pitching through some stuff.” The 25-year-old McCullers has never started more than 22 games in a season, but nevertheless he’s been a valuable swingman for Houston’s recent playoff runs, starting three postseason games while pitching in relief seven times over the past two Octobers. McCullers is arbitration eligible for the second time this offseason, though as a Super Two player, he is not due to be a free agent until after the 2021 season.
- It’s not the sexiest of front office work, but the Orioles face a significant challenge in shaping their 40-man roster in advance of the Nov. 30 non-tender deadline. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes (via Twitter) that the 40-man roster, currently full, will require some finagling to open a minimum of four spots for pitchers Dillon Tate, Luis Gonzalez, Branden Kline, and catcher Martin Cervenka. Additionally, there are five other players currently on the O’s 60-day DL who will need to be added back to the 40-man if Baltimore wants to keep them. Those players – Richard Bleier, Pedro Araujo, Gabriel Ynoa, Mark Trumbo, and Austin Hays – figure to make the roster, with Ynoa being the most likely of the group to be let go. One spot should open when Adam Jones files for free agency, but that still leaves eight players Baltimore will need to non-tender, trade, or waive prior to December’s Rule 5 draft.
MLBTR Poll: Should Rockies Issue DJ LeMahieu A Qualifying Offer?
The Rockies hold the distinction of making arguably the single most aggressive deployment of the qualifying offer. Back in 2014, they extended one to aging corner outfielder Michael Cuddyer after an injury-limited season. Perhaps even more surprisingly, he declined it — a QO wouldn’t be accepted by anyone until the following offseason — and not long thereafter signed with the Mets, leaving the Rox with a first-round pick for their troubles.
These days, teams are generally less willing to go out on a limb with the QO. For one thing, we’ve seen several players decide they’d rather take the sure payday for one season of work than roll the dice on landing a big, multi-year deal. For another, teams have less to gain for their risk under the modified QO rules.
So, where does that leave the Rockies and free-agent-to-be DJ LeMahieu? The 30-year-old has been a steady presence for the Colorado organization, holding down the second base job on a regular basis for the past five seasons.
Defense has always been the calling card for LeMahieu. He has at times graded as one of the best defenders in the sport. And he did so again in 2018, with both DRS and UZR boosting his scores after three years of merely above-average ratings.
While he has produced at about ten percent below league average with the bat in three of the past four seasons, the outlying campaign (2016) saw LeMahieu post a stellar .348/.416/.495 slash. And he was able to drive a career-high 15 balls out of the yard in 2018.
Though his walk rate fell a bit, and LeMahieu ended with only a .321 OBP, it’s worth noting that he managed only a .298 batting average on balls in play. That’d be normal for most players, but DJLM has a long history of carrying much higher numbers. In the majors, his career BABIP is .343. This does seem tied to his dinger boost, as LeMahieu hit far more flyballs (29.5%) than ever before. It’s fair to wonder, then, whether LeMahieu will ever be able to deliver much power while also delivering his core skill — an abundance of solid contact and a lofty batting average — at the plate.
All things considered, it’s not as if LeMahieu doesn’t have his strengths on offense. He’s fourth in all of baseball in batting average over the past four seasons, after all. And the glove is good enough to support him regardless. If you believe UZR, he’s a 2-win player who topped out at 4.4 fWAR in 2016. By measure of DRS-applying rWAR, however, LeMahieu is more a 3-win annual performer who has topped five WAR at his peak.
The Rockies do have some options to fill in. Garrett Hampson has always hit in the minors and had a nice first taste of the majors in 2018. Ryan McMahon has struggled in the bigs but could also be a factor. And top prospect Brendan Rodgers is nearing MLB readiness even as Trevor Story blocks him at shortstop.
Of course, there are loads of second basemen to be found on the market. That hurts LeMahieu’s outlook and makes it likelier he’d accept. Paying him $17.9MM for a single season may be reasonable, in theory, but it’d also severely constrain the club as it seeks other improvements. While the Rockies could land a first-round pick if he rejects it, that’d only occur if LeMahieu secures at least a $50MM contract.
As ever, the decision boils down to what the Rockies believe LeMahieu thinks of his market. If the team expects he’ll reject the QO, issuing it is a no-brainer. If that’s unclear, the question becomes whether the team finds it palatable to imagine him accepting.
There are a lot of factors, but ultimately it’s a yes/no proposition whether to extend the qualifying offer. What do you think the Rockies ought to do? (Poll link for app users.)
Should the Rockies Make DJ LeMahieu A Qualifying Offer?
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No 59% (3,339)
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Yes 41% (2,338)
Total votes: 5,677
2018-19 Market Snapshot: Left-Handed Relievers
This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. We have now completed our run-down of position players, so we’ll turn to the pitching staff — beginning with left-handed relievers.
Teams In Need
There figures to be plenty of demand for lefty relief help. The Astros, Cubs, Mariners, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Rockies, and Yankees each could clearly stand to improve in that area. The Braves, Cardinals, and Nationals have some options but could be intrigued by the possibility of adding a high-quality set-up southpaw. You could perhaps argue the same for the Dodgers, though they have quite a volume of possibilities in house. Numerous clubs other could stand to add additional lefties, including the Angels, Pirates, and Twins, but don’t seem quite as likely to spend big money to do so.
Free Agents
High-leverage arms: Zach Britton and Andrew Miller are the big names here, though both have had plenty of injury questions and neither was in top form in 2018. The former is more youthful (30) and still racks up ridiculous numbers of groundballs, though his combination of 7.5 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 hardly inspired and his sinker velo is down. Miller, 33, still gets the K’s (11.9 per nine) but has seen his swinging-strike rate move southward (13.2%) along with his own average fastball speed (93.6).
Middle relievers: Justin Wilson still can’t find his command, allowing 5.43 walks per nine for the second-straight campaign, but he’s also still hard to square up. Tony Sipp got as many good bounces in 2018 as he did bad bounces in the season prior. All told, he showed quite well but is already 35 years of age. Oliver Perez, who is two years Sipp’s senior, had an even more stunning bounceback campaign that featured a career-high 14.2% swinging-strike rate. Zach Duke, Jake Diekman, and Aaron Loup all underperformed their peripherals and seem likely to draw interest. It was the opposite situation for Jorge De La Rosa, though he still figures to land somewhere after a useful campaign. Speaking of potential converted starters, Jaime Garcia struggled badly in the rotation but produced a 3.54 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .181/.280/.278 batting line in 20 1/3 innings as a reliever. Jerry Blevins had a poor platform season, but he’s a bounceback candidate.
Depth: Tim Collins, Danny Coulombe, Boone Logan, Tyler Lyons, Tommy Milone, Hector Santiago
Trade Candidates
High-leverage arms: If the Giants decide to cash in some assets, Will Smith and Tony Watson look to be highly appealing pieces after both turned in excellent 2018 efforts. The Twins could perhaps consider selling high on Taylor Rogers if there’s an opportunity to get value on this market, though they have good reason to stand pat as well. He has plenty of value to the Rays, but Jose Alvarado could draw big offers after an eye-opening sophomore campaign.
Middle relievers: Richard Bleier could be a fascinating chip for the O’s, but he’ll first need to recover from a serious lat injury. Andrew Chafin and T.J. McFarland will draw interest if the Diamondbacks decide to throw in the towel on 2019. Rangers groundball/command artist Alex Claudio could hold some appeal despite a down 2018 showing in the results department. Marlins southpaw Adam Conley showed some spark at times in a relief role.
A variety of potentially useful pitchers could come available from contenders, either via trade or free agency, if those clubs decide they don’t really want to commit a roster spot and pay them what they’ll likely command in arbitration. Vidal Nuno (Rays), Sam Freeman & Jonny Venters (Braves), Xavier Cedeno & Dan Jennings (Brewers), Sammy Solis (Nationals), Luis Avilan & Adam Morgan (Phillies), and Chris Rusin (Rockies) are all possibilities. It’ll be interesting to see what the Dodgers decide to do with Tony Cingrani, who missed a lot of time and carried a 4.76 ERA but also sported an impressive combination of 14.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. (The smart money is probably on him being tendered and kept in Los Angeles.)
Joe Girardi Withdraws From Reds’ Managerial Search
Joe Girardi has withdrawn from the Reds’ managerial search, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He had the inside track on the job, per the report, but will instead continue working as a television analyst for the time being.
It is not clear at this point how the Reds will adjust to the news. The organization was said to have narrowed down its search to three candidates, with David Bell and Brad Ausmus also reported as finalists.
In the past, Bell has been seen as the favorite to take the reins in Cincinnati. But he’s also interviewing with multiple other clubs. Plus, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Bell is even being whispered about as a possible candidate to advance in the Giants’ baseball operations department after just one season working in the club’s player development system.
Girardi, who previously managed the Yankees and Marlins, is still interested in returning to the dugout in the future, per Rosenthal. In fact, he’s said to be under consideration by the Rangers, if not other organizations seeking new skippers.
Joe Musgrove Undergoes Abdominal Surgery
The Pirates announced today that righty Joe Musgrove has undergone surgery to address the abdominal issue that bothered him late in the 2018 season. He is expected to be “on or close to a regular schedule” for the coming spring.
Musgrove’s campaign came to an early close owing to a pelvic bone stress reaction and abdominal wall strain. At the time, the decision was made to allow him six weeks of rest before the situation would be reassessed.
A recent medical evaluation showed “less than the desired amount of clinical healing,” per the Bucs’ announcement. Accordingly, a surgical course was recommended.
Clearly, the hope had been to avoid this procedure, though it seems there’s still optimism that it won’t create any near or long-term problems for the 25-year-old. While his season debut was delayed due to shoulder problems, Musgrove ended up turning in 115 1/3 innings of 4.06 ERA pitching — quality results that may still have lagged his true effectiveness (3.59 FIP, 3.92 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA).