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Taking Inventory: Detroit Tigers

By Connor Byrne | June 25, 2017 at 9:56am CDT

This is the ninth entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates, Giants, Padres, Reds and Braves.

The Tigers entered the 2017 campaign with the seemingly realistic goal of contending for a playoff spot, but their season has gone off the rails in recent weeks. Losers of eight straight, the Tigers own the American League’s worst record (32-42) and sit seven games out of a wild-card spot and 7.5 games behind AL Central-leading Cleveland. With the trade deadline approaching, Detroit looks like a seller in the making, which general manager Al Avila essentially admitted earlier this week when he indicated he’d listen to teams’ offers for his veteran players.

Rentals

J.D. Martinez, RF | Salary: $11.75MM

As an impending free agent in the midst of his fourth straight excellent season at the plate, the 29-year-old Martinez stands out as the Tigers’ most obvious trade chip. A foot injury suffered in spring training kept Martinez out of action until May, but he has returned to slash a red-hot .288/.373/.626 with 12 home runs and a .338 ISO in 161 plate appearances. While those power numbers will regress (he slugged .540 and posted a .241 ISO from 2014-16), Martinez will remain a significant offensive threat when they do. Few major leaguers are hitting the ball harder than Martinez this year, per Statcast (via Baseball Savant), and he’s also running what’s easily a career-high walk rate (12.4 percent). Dating back to last season, Martinez has been rather weak in the field, where he registered minus-22 defensive runs saved and a minus-17.2 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2016 (and has already been worth minus-5 DRS this year). Despite that, teams in need of an offensive jolt will show pre-deadline interest in the reasonably priced slugger.

Alex Avila, C | Salary: $2MM

As impressive as Martinez’s batted-ball numbers are, Avila’s might be even better. The resurgent 30-year-old, who’s the son of Detroit’s GM, trails only Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano in average exit velocity (93.9 mph) and paces the majors in rate of balls hit at least 95 mph (62 percent). That has led to a ridiculous .320/.438/.588 line in 185 PAs for the lefty-swinging Avila, who has emerged as one of the newest poster boys in baseball’s fly ball revolution. Avila’s fly ball rate has nearly doubled since last season (from 22.8 percent to 41 percent), and he has cut down on strikeouts while managing an elite-level walk rate for the third straight year. As with Martinez, some regression is in order (Avila won’t sustain a .433 batting average on balls in play, for instance), and Avila’s pitch-framing numbers leave plenty to be desired on the defensive side. But the onetime All-Star’s offensive revival looks worthy of betting on, especially given his cheap salary. A contender like the Red Sox could clearly use more offensive production from behind the plate, and their president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, is quite familiar with Avila after previously serving as the Tigers’ GM.

Controlled Through 2018

Ian Kinsler, 2B | Salary: $11MM in 2017; $10MM club option (or a $5MM buyout) in 2018

It would make sense for the Tigers to shop the 35-year-old Kinsler, who’s amid another solid season, but moving him won’t be easy. He can block deals to 10 teams, for one, and wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade rights over the winter unless a contract extension came with it. Also, barring injuries, it doesn’t look as if second basemen will be in high demand prior to the deadline.

Justin Wilson, RP | Salary: $2.7MM in 2017; arbitration eligible in 2018

Teams might not line up for Kinsler should he land on the block, but given the ever-increasing importance of bullpens in today’s game, the same won’t be true for Wilson if the Tigers shop him. The 29-year-old left-hander took over for the just-released Francisco Rodriguez as Detroit’s closer earlier in the season, and while save opportunities have been scarce, Wilson has still offered quality production when the team has turned to him. After averaging more than a strikeout per inning in each season from 2014-16, Wilson’s K/9 has increased to a career-best 12.84, and he’s running a palatable 2.96 ERA/3.50 FIP/3.58 xFIP trio. There are some concerns here, including an elevated walk rate (3.95 per nine, up from 2.61 last season) and a career-low ground-ball percentage (35.0, down from 54.9 in 2016), but effective, low-priced relievers who throw hard are hot commodities.

Jose Iglesias, SS | Salary: $4.1MM in 2017; arbitration eligible in 2018

It’s unclear whether the Tigers will market Iglesias. If they do, though, the Marlins’ return for the on-the-block Adeiny Hechavarria will be worth watching for Detroit. Hechavarria is a similar player to Iglesias and comes with matching team control and a nearly identical salary (Hechavarria makes $4.35MM). Like Hechavarria, Iglesias is a defense-first shortstop, though the latter was once a league-average hitter. That has changed over the past two seasons, as the 27-year-old Iglesias has combined to bat just .255/.306/.366 with four homers across 513 PAs. To his credit, Iglesias has saved 12 runs (including nine already this year) and posted a 16.3 UZR over that time.

Longer-Term Assets

Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Shane Greene, Alex Wilson

Of the three-high priced names on this list (Upton, Cabrera and Verlander), Upton is the only one with iffy team control status. At the end of the season, the left fielder will have the chance to opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM left on his contract, which won’t do his trade value any favors. The 29-year-old Upton has rebounded from a disappointing 2016, his first season in Detroit, to slash .268/.354/.496 with 14 long balls in 288 trips to the plate to perhaps make an opt-out a bit more realistic than it previously looked. The odds of a trade, on the other hand, appear remote.

Cabrera and Verlander are on even larger salaries than Upton over the next several years, and both have earned full no-trade rights. Those factors make potential trades complicated enough, but when you add in that both are 34 and now look downright mortal relative to their usual selves, in-season deals for either probably aren’t happening.

It’s debatable whether the Tigers should shop Greene or Wilson (or any other inexpensive assets), as they’ll need cheap contributors to step up in their forthcoming efforts to cut spending. Avila did listen to offers for Greene last winter, though, and he could continue to pique bullpen-needy teams’ interest as a hard thrower who’s making a near-minimum salary and comes with three arbitration-eligible years of control. Greene, 28, has pitched to a 3.57 ERA and posted 9.68 K/9 against 4.58 BB/9, with a 46.7 percent grounder rate, over 35 1/3 innings this season. Wilson also carries some appeal as a high-velocity righty with an affordable salary this season ($1.175MM) and two arb-eligible years. He doesn’t bring Greene’s bat-missing ability to the table, but the 30-year-old Wilson has survived a below-average K/9 (5.77) during his 230 2/3-inning career to post a 2.93 ERA (3.69 this season).

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Pirates, Orioles, Cards, A’s, Mets, Jays

By Connor Byrne | June 25, 2017 at 9:18am CDT

This week in baseball blogs:

Pirates Breakdown explores the possibility of the Bucs adding another arm by the trade deadline.
Camden Depot names the Orioles’ top five trade chips.
Notes From The Sally lists the top 25 prospects in the South Atlantic League at the midpoint of the season.
The Redbird Daily examines Cardinals center fielder Dexter Fowler’s power surge.
A’s Farm interviews Athletics scouting director Eric Kubota about the team’s top 11 picks in this year’s draft.
Mets Daddy suggests that the team doesn’t have many appealing trade possibilities.
Jays From the Couch doesn’t expect Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista’s mutual option to be exercised in the offseason.
Padres Prospectus seems similarities between Friars right-hander Dinelson Lamet and the 2016 version of Pirates righty Tyler Glasnow.
The Sports Tank is buying into rookie Dodgers slugger Cody Bellinger’s early success.
Fueled by Sports ranks the majors’ divisions thus far.
Call to the Pen lists the odds of a promotion for each of the Phillies’ top candidates.
MetsMind focuses on righty Matt Harvey’s woeful 2017.
BP Toronto doesn’t see an obvious second base fix for the Blue Jays.
The Point of Pittsburgh asks if the Pirates are in rebuild denial.
Outside Pitch MLB reacts to the Nationals’ rumored interest in Phillies reliever Pat Neshek.
Prospects1500 highlights top performances from each minor league level for the week of June 12.
Ladodgerreport looks at the recent dust-up between Dodgers right fielder Yasiel Puig and the Mets.
The North Shore Nine writes about the success of Pirates reliever Felipe Rivero.
Everything Bluebirds wonders if the Blue Jays should acquire another reliever.
Pinstriped Prospects shares a scouting report on Yankees Single-A outfielder Blake Rutherford.
The 3rd Man In expects the Brewers to regret passing on high school outfielder Jo Adell in the first round of the draft.
The Runner Sports (links: 1, 2) highlights Tyler Clippard’s importance to the Yankees’ bullpen and profiles Astros sixth-round pick Jake Adams.
Rotisserie Duck uses Bowman baseball cards to search for the next Mike Trout.
Sports Talk Philly revisits the incredible June that former Phillies left-hander Cliff Lee had in 2011.

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com.

Quick Hits: Seager, Rangers, Young, Morse

By Mark Polishuk | June 24, 2017 at 11:24pm CDT

Corey Seager won’t be in the Dodgers starting lineup for what could be several games due to a mild right hamstring strain, as reported by Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times and other media. Seager suffered a Grade 1 strain, the lowest level of hamstring injury, and the team is hopeful Seager can avoid a DL stint; Seager said that this current issue isn’t nearly as bad as hamstring injuries he has suffered in the past. Manager Dave Roberts suggested Seager could be available for key pinch-hitting situations, and the team will wait until Tuesday or Wednesday before deciding if the disabled list is necessary for the star shortstop.

Here’s more from around baseball….

Relief pitching will be a deadline priority for the Rangers at the deadline, though the team is still committed to Matt Bush as the closer, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes. “We’ve got to continue to develop Matt in that spot. One of the challenges is finding him consistent work in different situations,” manager Jeff Banister said, noting that Bush is still pretty new to pitching in his professional career. The Rangers also want to see what they have in Ernesto Frieri and Tanner Scheppers before deciding on their specific deadline needs for the bullpen.
Veteran right-hander Chris Young tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that he intends to continue his career after being released by the Royals. “Physically, I feel good,” Young said. “My arm feels good. I don’t foresee this being the end. I’m still capable of competing at a high level. Possibly a change of scenery might help.” Young, who turned 38 last month, has suffered through a pair of rough seasons in 2016-17, posting a 6.52 ERA over 118 2/3 IP. Young also praised the K.C. fans and the Royals organization, noting that GM Dayton Moore told him the news of his release in person.
Mike Morse is still suffering from lingering symptoms almost a month after going on the seven-day concussion DL, the veteran slugger tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Morse has openly talked about this stint with the Giants being something of a last ride in his career, though what could potentially be his final season has been hampered by a hamstring injury and now this concussion. Morse has a .556 OPS over 40 PA for the Giants this year, and he isn’t sure when he’ll be healthy enough to return to action.

Phillies Notes: Franco, Neshek, Galvis

By Mark Polishuk | June 24, 2017 at 10:35pm CDT

Here’s the latest from the City Of Brotherly Love…

Maikel Franco is “more than available” in trade talks, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Franco is struggling through a terrible 2017 season that has seen him hit just .224/.284/.371 over 285 plate appearances — between Franco’s subpar hitting, fielding and baserunning, he has delivered below replacement-level (-0.6 fWAR) production. A trade would be surprising given that Franco was seen as a potential building block piece for the Phillies less than two years ago, though it’s worth noting that he was also a below-average hitter (92 wRC+) in 2016, his first full season in the majors. Franco’s age (24) and past status as a well-regarded prospect would net him some trade interest, though Philadelphia would definitely be selling low on the third baseman.
The Phillies have already received a “standing offer” for Pat Neshek, CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury reports. The veteran reliever is expected to draw wide interest in the weeks leading to the trade deadline and as Salisbury notes, the Phils must believe they can do better than the current offer on the table. It’s hard to predict who the Neshek suitor is, given the widespread need for bullpen help across the league (though feel free to speculate on the #MysteryTeam in the comments section!)
The Adeiny Hechavarria trade buzz could be of interest to the Phillies as a gauge on what Freddy Galvis could net on the open market, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. Galvis is seven months younger than Hechavarria, also a free agent after the 2018 season and is better known for his glove than his bat, though Galvis did manage 20 homers last year. Over their careers, Galvis has been worth 5.1 fWAR over 2059 PA as compared to Hechavarria’s 1.7 fWAR in 2402 PA. Gelb reasons that a team who fails to land Hechavarria could turn to Galvis as an alternate plan.

AL East Notes: Osuna, Rutledge, Rusney, Duda, Rays

By Mark Polishuk | June 24, 2017 at 9:55pm CDT

Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna told Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling and other reporters that he has been dealing with anxiety issues in recent days and is unsure as to when he’ll be back on the mound. “I don’t really know how to explain it. I just feel anxious. I feel like I’m lost a little bit right now,” Osuna said via an interpreter. “This has nothing to do with me being on the field. I feel great out there. It’s just when I’m out of baseball. When I’m not on the field, I feel just weird and a little bit lost.” This is the first time the 22-year-old has experienced such feelings, he said, noting “I’m just not myself right now.” The organization’s head of mental performance, Paddy Steinfort, has been working with Osuna during this period and declined a interview on Osuna’s status.

Here’s some more from around the AL East…

The Red Sox placed Josh Rutledge on the seven-day concussion DL today, calling up Tzu-Wei Lin from Double-A to take his spot on the roster. [Updated Red Sox depth chart at Roster Resource] Troublingly, Rutledge may have originally suffered this concussion in late May, and it was only detected within the last couple of days. Boston was already thin at third base with Pablo Sandoval, Marco Hernandez, and Brock Holt also on the DL, and Rutledge’s absence will only increase the likelihood of the Sox pursuing third base help at the deadline.
Rusney Castillo is playing well at Triple-A but isn’t a likely candidate for a return to the majors for contractual reasons, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes. Thanks to changes made in the new collective bargaining agreement, the Red Sox would have the average annual value of Castillo’s contract (around $10.4MM) counted on their luxury tax calculations through the end of the outfielder’s deal in 2020, even if they called up Castillo for even just one day or dealt him to another deal and ate part of the salary obligations. Between this financial cost and the Sox already being pretty set in the outfield, Castillo may not have a clear path back to the bigs at all for over three years.
The Yankees and Mets are hardly frequent trade partners, though Newsday’s David Lennon suggests that Lucas Duda could be the answer to the Yankees’ need at first base. With Tyler Austin and the still-injured Greg Bird both unproven commodities at first, Lennon argues that Duda is a proven slugger that can help fill that positional need for the Bronx Bombers, and he could be available if the Mets are indeed open to moving veteran players. After an injury-plagued 2016, Duda has rebounded to hit .253/.365/.565 with 13 homers over 200 PA for the Mets. As a free agent after the season, Duda also wouldn’t represent a long-term roadblock for Bird or Austin at the position.
The Rays are closing in on a winning record at the season’s halfway point, and the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin lists ten solid decisions made by the club both last winter and during the season that have positioned the Rays for playoff contention.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Cueto, Puig, Adams, Blevins, Chatwood

By Mark Polishuk | June 24, 2017 at 8:51pm CDT

Some hot stove buzz from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, courtesy of two Full Count videos (link one, link two)…

A rival general manager describes Johnny Cueto’s potential trade value as “lower than a rental’s” due to the added complication of Cueto’s opt-out clause, which could make it hard for the Giants to find a trade partner. If a team were to acquire a normal pending free agent at the deadline and that player got injured or performed poorly, the two sides would likely just part ways after the year. If such a scenario happened to Cueto, however, he might not opt out, so the new team would be taking on a potentially diminished asset for the remaining four years/$84MM on Cueto’s contract.
The offseason trade buzz about Yasiel Puig has died down since he is playing well, so it doesn’t seem like the Dodgers would move the controversial outfielder unless they get full value in return. Interestingly, Rosenthal notes that Puig’s clubhouse reputation is still a work in progress, as “many” Dodgers teammates view Puig “as an annoyance.”
Matt Adams is drawing trade interest, which isn’t a surprise given how he has been crushing the ball since joining the Braves. Whether Atlanta looks to move Adams or not will depend on whether Freddie Freeman is capable of playing third base, thus allowing Adams to stay at first base. Moving Adams into a corner outfield spot is problematic since the Braves would then have to deal Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis, not to mention the defensive shortcomings Adams displayed while playing the outfield for the Cardinals earlier this season.
While the Mets are reportedly open to dealing veterans, Rosenthal says that Jerry Blevins is maybe the least likely of those players to switch teams. Blevins is enjoying his second consecutive excellent year in the Mets bullpen, and since the team plans to contend again in 2018, exercising the $7MM club option on Blevins would be a good way to lock up some reliable left-handed relief.
A Tyler Chatwood trade “would be difficult for the [Rockies] to make,” a source with knowledge of the team’s thinking tells Rosenthal. If anything, Colorado will be looking to add pitching rather than move a solid rotation arm. Chatwood has a 4.08 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and a very strong 57.6% ground ball rate over 90 1/3 IP this season. He is a free agent this winter and he has a strong track record (career 3.10 road ERA) away from Coors Field, plus he may not be a prime candidate for a long-term deal given that Chatwood has twice undergone Tommy John surgery. Despite those factors, Chatwood probably has more value to the Rockies as a player than as a potential trade chip as the team battles in the competitive NL West.

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/24/17

By Jeff Todd | June 24, 2017 at 7:47pm CDT

We’ll track the latest minor moves from around baseball in this post…

Newest Moves

The White Sox signed Grant Green to a minor league deal on Wednesday, the team’s Triple-A affiliate announced (on Twitter). The veteran infielder signed a minors contract with the Nationals over the winter and appeared in two games for the team before being outrighted off the 40-man roster in April and released in mid-June. Picked 13th overall by the A’s in the 2009 draft, Green has played for four teams over parts of five seasons in the big leagues, posting a .248/.283/.336 slash line in 353 PA.
The Athletics signed left-hander Patrick Schuster last week, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports. Schuster joined the A’s organization just a couple of days after being released from his minor league deal with the Dodgers. This is Schuster’s second stint in Oakland, as he made his MLB debut last July before being claimed on waivers by the Phillies in September. Still just 26 and in his ninth year as a pro, Schuster has a 3.38 ERA over 474 2/3 IP in the minors (mostly as a reliever) as well as 11 big league games with the A’s and Phillies.
The Tigers released southpaw Mike Zagurski earlier this month, Tom Reisenweber of the Erie Times-News reports (via Twitter). Zagurski signed a minor league deal with Detroit last winter, making his return to North American baseball after spending the previous two seasons in Japan. The lefty posted a 3.29 ERA, 5.38 K/BB rate and 14.2 K/9 over 27 1/3 combined innings at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, including a 5.06 ERA in 10 2/3 IP at Toledo despite those impressive peripherals. Zagurski will now look to catch on with another team in hopes of making it back to the majors for the first time since 2013.

Earlier Today

Veteran Phillies players Michael Saunders and Jeanmar Gomez were each released, according to the MLB.com transactions page. Both were designated at the same time recently, and the Phils evidently couldn’t find takers in trade — which isn’t terribly surprising given their pronounced struggles and big salaries. Saunders, 30, had a strong 2016 season and has mostly been a better-than-average hitter in the big leagues, so he’ll surely find a new opportunity elsewhere. The same holds for Gomez, who always seemed miscast as a closer but might provide some solid innings in a middle-relief role. Though both can now be had for the league minimum, it would perhaps be a surprise were either to sign directly only a MLB roster at this stage of the season.
Likewise, the Royals announced that release waivers have been requested on veteran right-hander Chris Young, who was just designated. It’s not clear whether the 38-year-old will continue pitching after losing his job with Kansas City. He overcame significant arm injuries to make it back to the majors, and had a few good years upon his return, but has struggled mightily over the past two campaigns.
The Twins have released lefty Adam Wilk, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (via Twitter). He had been designated for assignment after making a few fill-in outings for Minnesota. Wilk has allowed 14 earned runs on 24 hits in his 14 MLB innings this year, while recording just eight strikeouts against nine walks. He’ll likely end up finding a new organization on a minors deal.

Draft Signings: Pirates, Twins, Blue Jays, Cubs, Orioles, Marlins, Angels

By Jeff Todd | June 24, 2017 at 6:57pm CDT

Here are the latest notable signings from the 2017 amateur draft. You can check out scouting reports and analysis of all these players via the draft prospect rankings from MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (the latter two links are subscription-only).

Pirates second-round pick Steven Jennings will receive a $1.9MM bonus, according to MLB.coms Jim Callis (via Twitter). The high-school hurler was taken 42nd overall, which comes with a $1,635,500 allocation.
The Twins will save a bit of cash on 37th overall pick Landon Leach, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (via Twitter). He’ll take home just under $1.5MM, per the report, below the $1,846,100 assigned slot price.
Some of the Twins’ savings will be directed toward third-rounder Blayne Enlow, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link). Reports after the draft suggested that Enlow would receive a bonus in the $2MM range to entice him away from a commitment to LSU. Callis reports that Enlow will receive $2MM on the dot, a major increase from the slot price ($755.5K) for the 76th overall selection.
Blue Jays second-rounder Hagen Danner is in agreement on a bonus that will land right around $1.5MM, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. The deal is pending a physical. Danner’s bonus represents a healthy bump over the $1,043,200 slot value for the 61st overall pick. Davidi notes that once Danner’s deal is finalized, Toronto will have signed all of its picks from the first ten rounds except for first-round selections Logan Warmoth and Nate Pearson.
Cubs second-rounder Cory Abbott lands a slot-value, $901.9K bonus, according to MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (via Twitter). The Loyola right-hander was drafted 67th overall.
The Orioles will pay a $1.3MM bonus to Adam Hall, according to Mayo (on Twitter). It’s an above-slot deal for Hall, who had a slot value of $1,068,700 as the 60th overall pick.
The Orioles will also add supplemental second-round selection Zac Lowther for the $779.5K slot value of the 74th overall pick, Callis tweets.
Marlins second-rounder Joe Dunand will take home a $1.2MM bonus, Callis tweets. The N.C. State shortstop was taken 51st overall, so Dunand’s bonus lands a bit blow the $1,326,800 assigned price.
The Angels have agreed to a $1MM bonus with third-rounder Jacob Pearson, Hudson Belinsky of Baseball America reports on Twitter. Pearson, another LSU commit, will instead begin his pro career after receiving a bonus well beyond the $656.3K assigned to the 85th overall pick.

Duquette: Orioles Looking To Add Pitching, “Premature” To Consider Selling At Deadline

By Mark Polishuk | June 24, 2017 at 6:00pm CDT

Even with the Orioles in a tailspin over the last six weeks, executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette said it was “a little premature” to consider whether or not his team will be sellers at the trade deadline, Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes. If anything, the O’s are still considering making an upgrade to their struggling rotation.

“Our pitching hasn’t been up to standards,” Duquette said. “We’re going to keep our eye out and try to get our pitching back to a competitive level, and see if we can make some additions to the team and see where we are in terms of contending for a playoff spot.”

The Orioles held the top spot in the AL East for much of the early part of the season, and had a 22-10 record after a victory on May 9. Since that date, however, Baltimore has just a 13-28 mark. Some notable injuries (Zach Britton, Chris Davis, Darren O’Day) have been a factor, and top hitters like Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo have been below-average contributors at the plate.

The Orioles’ biggest weakness, however, has been a lack of reliable starting pitching. Baltimore starters have combined for the second-worst fWAR (1.6) and ERA (5.79) in all of baseball, ahead of only the Reds in both categories. Orioles starters aren’t missing bats (6.69 K/9, third-lowest of any rotation in the league) while also posting a league-high 4.13 BB/9.

The O’s have acquired the likes of Wade Miley, Scott Feldman and Bud Norris in deadline trades under Duquette’s time running the front office, and the summer trade market is flush with pitching options for teams looking for rotation help. On the other hand, as Meoli notes, the Orioles’ farm system is thin on major trade chips for opposing teams.

Of course, there won’t be any buying at the deadline if the Orioles don’t turn things around in fairly quick fashion. Welington Castillo will only return in 2018 if he exercises a player option, so the Orioles could consider moving him as a rental for other teams. For bigger-picture moves, Meoli points out that Machado, Jones, Britton and Brad Brach are all free agents after 2018. While dealing Machado or Jones would portend at a larger rebuild, it’s possible Baltimore could explore trading one of the relievers for prospects and then keeping the other as the closer for next season (when the team would presumably be looking for a quick return to contention).

One bright side for the Orioles is a crowded American League table, so Baltimore entered today’s action six games behind the Red Sox in the AL East and just 3.5 games out of the second wild card spot. The question would be how much the O’s want to invest in midseason trades when a best-case scenario might be the one-game playoff, though for Duquette, the wild card is still an attractive target.

“If we get a little bit more time, maybe the second wild card gives a lot of teams hope,” Duquette said. “And once you get into that playoff situation, a lot of teams have advanced from that wild-card spot and done well in the playoffs. There’s more baseball to play, and our aim is to try to get back to playing the kind of baseball that fans are used to from the Baltimore Orioles.”

Top 50 Trade Deadline Candidates For 2017

By Jeff Todd | June 24, 2017 at 4:16pm CDT

With trade season entering full swing, we’ll be doing these lists with greater frequency. We last checked in about a week ago. Click here for the first one, including an explanation of the approach. Basically, we’re looking at both trade likelihood and trade value (in all its facets).

There’s quite a lot of change in the new list, in large part reflecting some shifts in the standings — and shifts in apparent stances from a few key organizations. Just because a team moves into a likely or plausible selling position, though, doesn’t mean that it will necessarily be open to dealing away all of its shorter-term assets. I considered every organization’s strategic position closely in making the list, with the result that some big names snuck in and others did not. That’s all open to debate — and also to modification, as new information reaches the market.

On to the rankings:

1. David Robertson, RH Reliever, White Sox (LR: 1): The results are still there, though Robertson doesn’t carry the same kind of lock-down profile that several top relief trade candidates did last summer. Still, he’s an obvious trade piece for the White Sox and continues to hold down the top spot.

2. J.D. Martinez, OF, Tigers (LR: 14): The Tigers are streaking in the wrong direction, and Martinez is doing the opposite. He’d be an impact rental bat for any lineup and isn’t even all that expensive.

3. Pat Neshek, RH Reliever, Phillies (LR: 4): He hasn’t allowed a run since mid-May and could be the likeliest pitcher in all of baseball to be traded.

4. Jed Lowrie, 2B/3B, Athletics (LR: 8): The writing is on the wall with Franklin Barreto up and in the lineup at second base today. Given Oakland’s aggressive paring of veterans, a deal could conceivably come at any time.

5. Jose Quintana, SP, White Sox (LR: 4): “Q” is finally on a bit of a roll, with a 2.25 ERA and 24:8 K/BB ratio over 24 innings in his last four starts.

6. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Athletics (LR: 3): It’s not clear just how realistic the extension chatter is, but that does create some alternative to a trade. He’s also on a bit of a cold streak at the plate, though in the aggregate the stock is still up.

7. Addison Reed, RH Reliever, Mets (LR: NR): With the news that New York is likely lining up to sell, Reed becomes their top trade asset. The 28-year-old has been somewhat susceptible to the long ball, but otherwise has dominated and will be a top rental reliever.

8 (tie). Justin Wilson, LH Reliever, Tigers (LR: NR): With rising strikeout (12.8 K/9) and swinging-strike (13.8%) rates, and a power arsenal from the left side, Wilson looks like a very appealing chip. He’s also earning just $2.7MM this year with another year of arb control remaining.

8 (tie). Brad Hand, LH Reliever, Padres (LR: 7): Since surrendering a four-spot two weeks ago, Hand has turned in six straight scoreless outings. While he’s holding steady, there are alternatives for teams looking at southpaw relievers.

10. Sonny Gray, SP, Athletics (LR: 4): While the A’s are clearly lining up sales, and do have a variety of young pitchers to use in the rotation, it’s still a bit unclear where things are headed with Gray. He has looked quite good at times, but was knocked around in his last two outings and has generally failed to find consistency.

11 (tie). Ryan Madson (RH Reliever) & Sean Doolittle (LH Reliever), Athletics (LR: 13, 27): With solid peripherals (8.6 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 53.8% GB) and good results (2.45 ERA), Madson continues to look like a nice target for contenders. Meanwhile, a dominant return from the DL has Doolittle rising. While the A’s are clearly selling, though, his health history and advantageous contract make his status a bit uncertain as the deadline ramps up.

11 (tie). David Phelps & A.J. Ramos, RH Reliever, Marlins (LR: 15, 18): There have been some ups and downs, and the command remains a concern, but Ramos has been at his best in June. Over 8 2/3 innings, he has racked up 13 strikeouts against three walks while allowing only two earned runs on five hits. Phelps has been touched a few times of late, but still has strong peripherals and looks to be a nice, sturdy pen piece. Both pitchers are reasonably affordable and come with an added season of arb control.

15. Howie Kendrick, LF/2B, Phillies (LR: 8): The steady veteran is hitting as well as ever, but it’s not yet clear when he’ll be made available and just how much demand there’ll be, especially with other corner outfielders and utility infield types available.

16. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS, Marlins (LR: NR): Miami seems to be itching to deal Hech, in large part to save some of the $2MM+ he’s still owed in 2017. He’s a gifted defender who doesn’t hit all that much, but would represent a useful fill-in at short who could then slide into a utility role for a contender.

17. Todd Frazier (3B) & Melky Cabrera (OF), White Sox (LR: 11 (tie)): Chicago has little reason not to simply get what it can for these expensive veterans, though other organizations may well first prefer to look into other options.

19. Marcell Ozuna, OF, Marlins (LR: 13): It’s still anyone’s guess whether Miami will look to deal Ozuna with the franchise up for sale, but he’d be a big trade chip if he’s shopped.

20. Ian Kinsler (2B) & Justin Upton (OF), Tigers (LR: NR): In Kinsler’s case, there’s a ten-team no-trade clause to be hurdled — particularly if he continues to seek an extension to waive it (see here and here) — but that may not be as big an obstacle now as it was in the winter. While he isn’t producing like he did last year, and doesn’t play a position that figures to come with much demand, Kinsler is a solid veteran who can be controlled for just $10MM next year. As for Upton, he has yet to turn 30 and is posting a strong .267/.352/.494 batting line through 284 plate appearances. He’ll either hit the open market or stick around for $22.125MM a year through 2021; while that’s quite a drastic difference, perhaps the opt-out clause isn’t as big a barrier to a trade in his case as it is in that of an older pitcher.

22. Tony Watson & Juan Nicasio, RP, Pirates (LR: 19): Neither pitcher has been at his best over the month of June, but both will draw interest.

24. Jerry Blevins, LH Reliever, Mets (LR: NR): He doesn’t have to be moved, as he comes with a pretty appealing option for 2018, but Blevins could be a nice chip. He’s a power lefty who is in the midst of a strong season, with a 2.13 ERA and 37:12 K/BB ratio over 25 1/3 innings.

25. Brad Brach, RH Reliever, Orioles (LR: NR): Though the O’s still aren’t buried in the standings, their play has been nothing short of awful of late and the rotation is showing little sign of supporting a turnaround. At this point, though, there’s no indication that the Orioles’ biggest stars will be marketed. It would likely be easier to part with players such as Brach, who have plenty of trade value but aren’t considered core pieces. The organization could face some soul-searching over the coming five weeks, but won’t rush into any moves.

26. Lucas Duda (1B), Jay Bruce (OF), Curtis Granderson (OF), Mets (LR: 24, 24, NR): Duda and Bruce hold steady, with the resurgent Granderson joining them. While a Mets sell-off seems increasingly likely, the markets for these veterans may be somewhat limited. Still, they all could represent notable additions for organizations dealing with an injury or significant performance issue.

29. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates (LR: 22): It’s tough to know just what to make of Cutch’s improved play. On the one hand, it certainly increases his appeal. On the other, perhaps it makes it difficult for the Pirates to sell him if the demand isn’t strong — especially with an Austin Meadows call-up seemingly off the table in the near-term and Starling Marte still suspended.

30. Welington Castillo, C, Orioles (LR: NR): Teams looking for a real upgrade behind the plate — though it’s not quite clear there will be many — will surely be taking a hard look at Castillo, who owns a productive .287/.320/.451 batting line entering today’s action. He has had some injury troubles and hasn’t been great since his latest DL stint, but the overall production is strong. Castillo is likely a rental, as his deal includes a $7MM player option that probably won’t be exercised barring a significant fall-off.

31. Alex Avila, C, Tigers (LR: NR): While he’s more of a part-time player and comes with some long-term injury questions, it’s tough to ignore the otherworldly stat line that Avila has put up. He’s slashing a ridiculous .315/.436/.584 with ten long balls on the year — numbers reminiscent of his long-forgotten 2011 campaign. It helps that Avila is a lefty bat and is earning just $2MM under the free-agent deal wisely negotiated by his proud father, Tigers GM Al Avila.

32. Stephen Vogt, C/1B, Athletics (LR: NR): This is something of a temporary placement. His struggles are well-documented, but Vogt is rather likely to find another home via trade now that he’s in DFA limbo.

33. Lance Lynn (SP) & Seung-hwan Oh (RH Reliever), Cardinals (LR: NR): Like some other organizations moving players onto this list, it’s going to be tough for St. Louis to pull the trigger on a sale. And honestly, if they’re still just five games out of the division lead on July 31st, they may not do it. But the possibility is there, especially since the Wild Card race is currently a laugher. If the Cards look to deal, pending free agents Lynn and Oh seem the clear pieces to move. (Trevor Rosenthal could also be a candidate, but he comes with another year of control and could step back into the closer’s role.)

35. Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Mets (LR: NR): A move off of shortstop has Cabrera asking for a trade, and he may get his wish. Though the Mets could still pick up his $8.25MM option and use him elsewhere on the diamond — as the team has long seemed fairly likely to do, rather than paying a $2MM buyout — a trade now seems rather plausible given Cabrera’s recent comments. He hasn’t hit as much this year as last, and isn’t likely to be used at short by a contender, but still profiles as at least an average hitter who brings some defensive versatility. For the right organization, the option would be a nice bonus.

36. Drew Storen, RH Reliever, Reds (LR: 26): He’s less than thirty years old, doesn’t cost much, and has been mostly effective despite diminished velocity. Storen isn’t a late-inning option anymore for a first-division team, but could deepen a lot of pens.

37. Edinson Volquez (Marlins), Clayton Richard (Padres), Jaime Garcia (Braves) & Scott Feldman (Reds), SP (LR: 32, 33, 17, NR): Volquez has struggled badly in two straight outings after a string of gems. Demand likely won’t be huge, but Miami could be motivated by the opportunity to shed some salary obligations. As for Richard, he’s still providing solid innings for San Diego and might be an appealing southpaw swingman for the right contender. Garcia has been tagged in his last two starts, pushing his ERA up to 4.03 and back in line to what his peripherals suggest. Finally, Feldman could help deepen a staff down the stretch; he’s earning just $3.2MM and owns a typically solid 4.20 ERA through 83 2/3 innings.

41. Jeff Samardzija (Giants), Johnny Cueto (Giants), Gerrit Cole (Pirates), Justin Verlander (Tigers), SP (LR: 34, 35, 37, NR): It’s tough to gauge the trade statuses of these four established hurlers. San Francisco is a clear seller, but may hold Samardzija for the future and may find it hard to deal Cueto with his opt-out clause. As for Cole, the Bucs will likely listen but may not pull the trigger given his future control. And while the Tigers would likely prefer to make a trade for Verlander, his situation is as complicated as they come: he hasn’t been great in 2017, has full no-trade protection, is an all-time great in the organization, and is owed $28MM annually from 2017 through 2019.

45. Ervin Santana (SP) & Brandon Kintzler (RH Reliever), Twins (LR: NR): It still feels wrong to really think of the Twins as sellers, given that the team is just 1.5 games out of the division lead entering action today. But it seems the tide may have turned in the AL Central and it’s not difficult to see a path to seller status. If that ends up being the case, Santana will be a nice asset, though he still wouldn’t be a certainty to be dealt with the Twins hoping to make further strides in 2018. Kintzler will be a free agent after the year, and while he’s not likely to be viewed as a closer by other organizations, it’s hard not to like the 3.05 ERA he has turned in over his 85 2/3 innings since coming to Minnesota.

47. Seth Smith, OF, Orioles (LR: NR): The veteran represents a solid left-handed-hitting bench bat and corner outfield option. He’s not the most exciting deadline asset, but could hold appeal for the right organization. Hyun Soo Kim also warrants consideration but just hasn’t hit much over the course of the season and doesn’t seem as likely to be targeted.

48. Marco Estrada, SP, Blue Jays (LR: NR): Like the division-rival Orioles, the Jays won’t rush to make any trades, and it’s arguable that Toronto has greater hopes of staying in contention. At this point, though, it’s reasonable to anticipate at least some modest selling for Toronto, and Estrada seems the likeliest candidate. His ERA is up to 4.98 due to more homers and a much higher BABIP than usual, but he’s also posting a career-best 10.2 K/9 with just 2.5 BB/9. Francisco Liriano and J.A. Happ are also possibilities among Jays starters, but the former has been maddeningly inconsistent and the latter has another year left on his deal.

49. Raisel Iglesias (Reds) & Tommy Kahnle (White Sox), RH Relievers (LR: 49, NR): Both of these high-powered relievers come with control, so they don’t need to be traded. But there’s a possibility of acquiring a significant future-oriented piece, perhaps these rebuilding clubs ought to consider it.

Falling Out

Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Kelvin Herrera, Jason Vargas & Joakim Soria, Royals: The Royals’ surge has taken their players out of trade contention; remarkably, after a victory today, K.C. sits one game over .500.

Jarrod Dyson, Mariners: This’ll continue to ebb and flow, but for now the M’s are playing well and firmly in Wild Card contention.

Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Brandon Phillips & Kurt Suzuki, Braves: While Atlanta still seems like a marginal playoff contender, the team is playing well and may not be supremely motivated to deal away veterans that won’t bring much in return and who lack obvious replacements.

Daniel Nava, Phillies: He comes with limited trade value upside and has cooled off at the plate.

Alex Cobb, Rays: Tampa Bay is now four games over .500.

Derek Holland, White Sox: He was battered again in his most recent start.

Inactive

Nate Jones (White Sox), Trevor Cahill (Padres), Bartolo Colon (Braves), Neil Walker (Mets), Cesar Hernandez (Phillies), J.J. Hardy & Zach Britton (Orioles), Zack Cozart (Reds), Bud Norris (Angels), Yangervis Solarte (Padres), Victor Martinez (Tigers), Eduardo Nunez & Hunter Strickland (Giants), Phil Hughes & Hector Santiago (Twins), Joe Smith (Blue Jays), Brad Ziegler (Marlins)