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Minor MLB Transactions: 12/26/17

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Here are the day’s minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced Tuesday that they’ve signed former Dodgers farmhand O’Koyea Dickson (English link via the Japan Times). Dickson, 27, made his Major League debut with the Dodgers in 2017 but went hitless in seven trips to the plate. However, he’s compiled a solid .275/.341/.499 batting line with 55 homers and 77 doubles in 1255 plate appearances across parts of three Triple-A seasons. Dickson has played primarily first base in the minors (3230 innings), but he also comes with nearly 1200 innings of experience in left field. The Eagles announced him as an outfielder, so it seems that’s how he’ll be viewed in his first year of action overseas.

Twins Have Interest In Mike Napoli

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DEC. 27: Jon Heyman of FanRag notes that although no deal was ever imminent (and he never reported that it was), the talks should be considered serious, as he believes they’ve progressed to a point where Minnesota looks like the most likely landing spot for the first baseman.

5:50pm: MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that while the Twins like Napoli, there’s nothing imminent between the two sides (Twitter link). Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) hears similarly, saying the Twins’ focus remains on their pitching staff.

DEC. 25, 10:32am: The two sides are in “serious talks,” says Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports.

DEC. 24: The Twins have interest in signing free agent first baseman Mike Napoli and have been in touch with Napoli’s agent, according to La Velle E. Neal III and Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.  Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News first noted the interest recently via Twitter. There isn’t any sign yet that the two sides are close to an agreement.

This isn’t the first time that Minnesota has been linked to Napoli, as the club originally tried to sign Napoli last offseason and actually offered him a larger deal than the one he eventually signed with the Rangers — a one-year, $6MM deal with an $11MM club option for 2019 that included a $2.5MM buyout.  At the time, Napoli chose the Rangers because they looked like a better bet to contend in 2017, though it was the Twins who ended up making a surprise run to the AL wild card game while Texas posted a losing record.

It was a tough year for Napoli as well, as the veteran hit only .193/.285/.428 over 485 plate appearances for the Rangers, though he did slug 29 home runs.  A torn right hand ligament may well have contributed to Napoli’s struggles, though the Rangers chose to buy the veteran out rather than bet $8.5MM more on a rebound year for a player who turned 36 on Halloween.

Given that Napoli provided good power numbers even despite an overall lackluster season at the plate, he could provide a right-handed boost to the Twins’ bench, and even become a major bargain if he could regain the old form that he displayed as recently as the 2016 season.  As Neal and Miller note, the Twins also value Napoli’s reputation as a clubhouse leader, which could be particularly important for a young team that has an eye towards becoming a regular contender.  Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both very familiar with Napoli’s contributions on and off the field, as Napoli played for the Indians and Rangers when Falvey and Levine respectively worked in those clubs’ front offices.

The Twins’ move towards contention and their lack of future payroll commitments have given them lots of options this winter, as the club has been linked to several major names on the free agents and trade markets (though Fernando Rodney has been the only truly notable addition to date).  Minnesota has much more of a dire need for pitching than hitting, so signing a part-time bat like Napoli wouldn’t do much to slow their hopes of landing a top-tier arm.

Free Agent Faceoff: Yu Darvish vs. Jake Arrieta

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While the relief market has been highly active over the past month, there’s been little activity at the top end of the market for free agent starters. Heading into the winter, Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta stood as the top two available starters, and neither has come to terms on a new contract for the 2018 campaign. Both seem like candidates to pull in nine-figure deals, even with fairly quiet market to date, though opinions vary as to which is the better investment.

Yu Darvish | Jamie Squire/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports

Both Darvish and Arrieta are 31 years of age, though Arrieta will pitch all of the 2018 season at the age of 32, while Darvish won’t turn 32 until next August. Arrieta, though, doesn’t have a major arm injury on his recent track record, whereas Darvish missed all of the 2015 season and part of the 2016 campaign due to Tommy John surgery.

Darvish, of course, left a poor final impression on fans when he was tattooed by the Astros in a pair of postseason outings, though SI’s Tom Verducci was told by an anonymous Astros player that Darvish was tipping his pitches in both of those outings. Prior to that ugly finish, Darvish was trending up, pitching to a 3.10 ERA with a 75-to-14 K/BB ratio in 11 starts as a Dodger (between the regular season and the first two rounds of postseason play). Overall, he finished out the year with a 3.86 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and a 40.9 percent ground-ball rate.

Despite the recent Tommy John operation, Darvish averaged 94.2 mph on his heater — his best mark to date in the Majors — and cleared 200 innings when factoring in postseason play. Darvish has been an All-Star in each of his four full healthy MLB seasons, and he owns a 3.27 ERA with more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings over dating back to his second big league season. In 832 1/3 Major League innings, Darvish has been worth roughly 19 WAR per both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs.

Jake Arrieta | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Arrieta, meanwhile, had one of the great hot streaks in MLB history in 2015 when he rode a staggeringly dominant second half to National League Cy Young honors. In Arrieta’s final 147 innings of that 2015 campaign, Arrieta pitched to an unthinkable 0.86 ERA with 147 strikeouts against 27 walks issued. Darvish cannot lay claim to a run nearly that dominant at any point in his career. (Few pitchers can, of course.)

Certainly, though, Arrieta’s dominance has not been limited to that stretch of 20 starts. In parts of five seasons with the Cubs — a total of 803 big league innings — Arrieta logged a 2.73 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and considerably above-average ground-ball tendencies. His innings total has declined in consecutive seasons, though, and Arrieta’s 92.1 mph average fastball in 2017 was the lowest of his career. Arrieta’s home-run and ground-ball rates trended in the wrong direction this past season, as was the case with his velocity.

Arrieta does come with more postseason experience and success than Darvish, though that may not carry as much weight with the game’s increasingly analytically-inclined front offices. He’ll also cost his new team a draft pick in 2018, whereas Darvish isn’t tied to compensation due to the fact that he was traded midseason.

MLBTR projected nine-figure commitments for each of the two in free agency this offseason, though Darvish topped our 2017-18 MLB free agent rankings, which were based on earning potential. There have been reports suggesting that Arrieta and agent Scott Boras are seeking upwards of $200MM, while others have suggested Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $175MM deal as a target for Darvish and his reps at Wasserman. Of course, all agents are going to aim high early in negotiations, and those early targets don’t necessarily line up with the dollar figures that the two stars will ultimately command.

Each pitcher has his merits, and there are various cases to be made in favor of one over the other. With all of that said, I’ll open this up to MLBTR readers to voice their opinions (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Which free agent starter would you rather sign?
Yu Darvish 60.19% (10,426 votes)
Jake Arrieta 39.81% (6,895 votes)
Total Votes: 17,321

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

International Notes: Huff, Kim

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While it’s been slow on the free-agent front in the North America, plenty of recognizable names have been landing deals overseas in Japan and Korea. A couple of notes on the international market as the holiday season is in full swing…

  • Lefty David Huff has agreed to a one-year, $1.3MM deal with the Yakult Swallows in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, according to the Japan Times. The 33-year-old last suited up in the Majors for the 2016 Angels but spent parts of eight seasons in the bigs, posting a 5.17 ERA with 5.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 38.8 percent ground-ball rate in 393 1/3 innings, spending time as both a starter and a reliever. Since his last big league appearance, Huff has been thriving with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization, pitching to a 2.66 ERA with 6.5 K/9 against 1.0 BB/9 in 199 1/3 innings in an extremely hitter-friendly setting.
  • Though Hyun Soo Kim recently signed a four-year contract to return to the KBO (worth a total of $10.7MM), the 29-year-old said at his introductory press conference with the LG Twins that he’s not totally closed off to taking another shot at the Majors if the opportunity presents itself (link via Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency). Kim also spoke highly of his time in the Majors and the amount that he learned playing in parts of two seasons with the Orioles and Phillies. “[T]he biggest lesson is that I realized the importance of routines,” said Kim. “I thought I had built a solid routine myself, but it was nothing compared to what the big leaguers were doing. I thought players who stuck to their routines were always able to get out of their slumps quickly.” Yoo also “marveled” at the manner in which big league players took care of their bodies, Yoo writes, and offered a candid assessment of his time in the Majors. While he attributes many of his struggles to a lack of regular playing time, he takes responsibility for his lack of at-bats. “I didn’t play well when I did have my opportunity,” said Kim. “So it’s on me.”

Recent Christmas Day Transactions

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Happy Holidays, MLBTR readers! We hope you’re all enjoying the season of giving. December 25th is typically a quiet day for transactional news, but it’s not altogether uncommon for teams to make small moves. Since the turn of the millenium, there have been a few players to receive Christmas presents in the form of minor league contracts, and even one who earned a major league deal. Here’s a quick recap of the Christmas Day signings since the year 2000…

2016

  • The Tigers signed left-fielder Quincy Latimore to a minor league deal.
  • The Red Sox inked third baseman Heiker Meneses and left fielder Brian Bogusevic to minors pacts, the latter of whom was extended an invitation to spring training camp.

2013

  • The Yankees reached a deal with right-hander Yoshinori Tateyama on a minor league contract that included a spring training invite.

2012

  • The Cubs signed right-hander Jaye Chapman to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

2007

  • The Giants signed right-hander Keiichi Yabu to a minors pact with a spring training invite.

2004

  • The Cardinals signed Abraham Nunez, a utility infield type, to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
  • The Royals signed right-hander Jose Lima to a major league contract. The club also added infielder Luis Ugueto on a minor league deal with a spring training invite.

 

Looking for a Match in a J.T. Realmuto Trade

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A new ownership group in Miami (headlined by Derek Jeter) has kicked off a fire sale. Dee Gordon is now a Mariner, Giancarlo Stanton a Yankee, and Marcell Ozuna a Cardinal, and there’s no telling whether the Marlins are done yet.

In the wake of this significant shift in direction for the organization, catcher J.T. Realmuto has reportedly requested a trade out of the city. While the team has stated that they have no intention to trade him (via Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports), the club had similar things to say about Ozuna early this offseason before shipping him to St. Louis for a package of prospects. On that note, there’s reason to at least explore his trade value and market.

Unlike Stanton or Gordon, Realmuto has significant surplus value on his contract. He’s been worth a combined 9 WAR across the past three seasons due to his excellent defense, above-average bat and good baserunning skills. He’s projected to make just a $4.2MM salary in his first trip through the arbitration process, and comes with two additional years of team control beyond the 2018 season. The former third-round pick out of Oklahoma’s Carl Albert High School is just entering his prime; he’ll begin the 2018 season having turned just 27 years old.

Realmuto, then, doesn’t help the Marlins’ with their loudly-stated goal to shed salary. However, by taking Stanton, Gordon and Ozuna off the books, they seem to have already reduced their payroll significantly. They don’t seem to have any intention of competing for an NL East pennant this year, and it’s looking more and more like Realmuto won’t be around for the next winning Marlins club. After all, teams like the Astros, Cubs and Nationals all took longer than three years to go from teardown to contention.

So with a realistic time frame to contend in mind, it’s difficult to believe the Marlins wouldn’t move Realmuto for the right offer. The question, then, is a matter of what kind of package would tempt them enough to move their backstop. Above-average major leaguers with three arbitration years remaining typically cost a small fortune; one need not look any further than the Braves’ recent trades of Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel for evidence. It would likely take at least one “blue-chip” prospect to even get the Marlins to pick up the phone, and probably another prospect within or near the top 100 to ultimately get a deal done.

A trade partner, then, would need to have a strong farm system along with a significant need at the catcher position. That club wouldn’t necessarily need to stand out as a contender this season, but Realmuto would fit best on a team with a fairly obvious multi-year window in the near future.

The Nationals jump off the page as the most obvious trade partner for the Marlins in a hypothetical Realmuto trade. They have a great farm system, including outfielder Juan Soto, who doesn’t have an obvious path to the majors. The Nationals’ outfield is crowded, and superprospect Victor Robles is ahead of him in the pecking order. Thanks in part to a terrible season from Matt Wieters, Nats catchers ranked dead last in the majors with -1.1 fWAR. Washington would definitely benefit from the sizable upgrade Realmuto would provide them at the catcher position; in theory the team would have won about five more games last year if they’d had him instead of Wieters.

Beyond that, the Rockies and Diamondbacks are fairly good fits. Both clubs ranked in the bottom ten in WAR value from the catcher position in 2017, and neither has any promising backstops in their farm system. Additionally, both teams are obvious contenders in 2018. Either team could feasibly deal from its prospect depth in order to add Realmuto to their lineup.

The Padres may be ready to give up on Austin Hedges at this point, and while the team probably won’t win next season, they could feasibly be contenders before Realmuto hits free agency. The Twins could make a play if they’re not content with mediocre offensive production from Jason Castro. If the Brewers aren’t buying last year’s breakout from 30-year-old Manny Pina, they’d have plenty of prospect depth to get a deal done.

Although there’s no rush to trade him at the moment, there are a host of teams that would probably be willing to fork over enormous value for a catcher who ranked third in the majors in fWAR this past season. The Marlins would be wise to keep their ears open if they’re approached teams who are interested in, or desperate for, an elite backstop.

Quick Hits: Nationals, Ichiro, Rangers, Rodgers

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On behalf of the MLB Trade Rumors staff, we wish all of our readers a very safe and happy holiday season!  Here are a few more news items to act as stocking stuffers as we head into Christmas Day…

  • The Nationals project to be over the luxury tax limit for the second straight year, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes, which could have some impact on how — or if — the team continues to spend this offseason or at the trade deadline.  The Nats are currently slated for a 30 percent tax on all overages beyond the $197MM threshold, though that tax bill will rise if the Nationals spend beyond the $217MM mark.  There doesn’t seem much chance that Washington will pass the threshold again next year, however, as the club has several big contracts coming off the books, so the Nats will be well-positioned to spend big in the vaunted 2018-19 free agent class, which includes such notable D.C. players as Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy.
  • Ichiro Suzuki is still hoping for another contract with an MLB team, telling the Kyodo News Agency (as picked up by the Associated Press) that “I feel like a big dog at a pet shop that hasn’t been sold. Of course, I want to play baseball next year.”  Ichiro also didn’t close the door on a return to Japan, in somewhat oblique fashion; when asked if there was a possibility he could play for Nippon Professional Baseball next season, Suzuki said “When you use the word possibility, there are many things … it means anything is possible as long as it’s not zero.”  Suzuki turned 44 in October and has spoken of hoping to play until he is 50 years old, though it remains to be seen if a Major League team will give the future Hall-of-Famer a shot at his 18th season in the bigs.
  • An American League scout shared his opinion on the Rangers’ three pitching acquisitions (Mike Minor, Matt Moore, and Doug Fister) with Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News, noting that the trio’s ability to miss bats will help take pressure off a shaky Texas defense.  Most interestingly, the scout suggested that Minor would be most effectively deployed not just as a reliever, but as the Rangers’ closer.  Minor has said that he chose to sign with Texas because the club was open to giving him the opportunity to again be a starting pitcher, so while the left-hander has also said he’s fine with continuing as a reliever, rotation work would seem to be his first option.  Minor began his career as a starter but shoulder problems cost him all of the 2015 and 2016 seasons before he returned to post excellent numbers out of the Royals bullpen last year.
  • After undergoing Tommy John surgery last May, Brady Rodgers hopes to be finished with his rehab by June, the Astros right-hander tells Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle.  A third-rounder in the 2012 draft, Rodgers made his MLB debut in 2016, tossing 8 1/3 innings for the Astros.  He owns a 3.98 ERA, 4.56 K/BB rate and 7.4 K/9 over 575 career frames in the minors, with particularly strong results coming in the last two years at the Triple-A level.  Once recovered, Rodgers will provide more upper minors depth for the Houston rotation.

NL West Notes: A-Gon, Giants, Hamilton, Tomas

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Some notes from around the NL West…

  • The Rockies haven’t been in touch with Adrian Gonzalez, GM Jeff Bridich tells MLB.com’s Thomas Harding.  The just-released veteran could be signed for just a league-minimum salary, as the Braves are on the hook for the remainder of the $21.5MM Gonzalez is owed for the 2018 season.  Gonzalez was still an above-average hitter as recently as 2016, though it remains to be seen how productive or healthy he can be next year after a serious back injury severely limited him last season.  Colorado has been linked to some first basemen this winter, though they also have internal options like rookie Ryan McMahon, who Harding profiles in the piece.
  • The Giants are still in the market for an outfielder and bullpen help, and some in the organization think both needs could be met in one trade, NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic writes.  The reliever trade market in particular is more appealing to some in the office than signing a bullpen arm.  On the outfield front, the Giants are still talking with the Reds about Billy Hamilton, though Cincinnati is still making “high demands” for the speedy center fielder.  As Pavlovic notes, the Giants could be even less likely to move young talent after swapping Christian Arroyo and two young pitching prospects to the Rays as part of the Evan Longoria trade.
  • The Giants are also on the lookout for a veteran starter on a minor league deal, Pavlovic adds.  Chris Stratton, Ty Blach, Tyler Beede, and Andrew Suarez are the in-house contenders for the two open spots in San Francisco’s rotation, and the team wants a more experienced arm in the mix to compete with all the youngsters.
  • Yasmany Tomas recently underwent a surgical procedure on his core area, this one to clean out scar tissue, the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro reports.  This seems like a less-serious procedure than the core surgery that ended Tomas’ season back in August, as the Diamondbacks say the Cuban outfielder is expected to be ready by the beginning of Spring Training.  Tomas was bothered by the injury for much of last season, which contributed to his sub-par .241/.294/.464 slash line over just 180 PA.  He and the D’Backs are still hoping for a proper breakout campaign in his fourth MLB season, as Tomas is still owed $42.5MM through the 2020 season.

AL East Notes: Span, Moreland, Hosmer, Machado

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Here’s the latest from around the AL East…

  • Born and raised in Tampa, Denard Span is happy to be playing for the Rays, even if his stint could potentially be a brief one, the outfielder tells Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Times.  “Nothing would surprise me if I get traded or flipped or whatever the terminology is. I guess until I show up to spring training then it will probably sink in that I’m a Ray,” Span said.  “There are so many possibilities, but I definitely would love to put on this hometown uniform. It would be a dream come true. It was something I always imagined.”  With Evan Longoria now dealt to the Giants for a four-player package that included Span, the outfielder now has the highest salary on the Rays’ 2018 payroll, which likely makes him a trade chip for the cost-conscious franchise.  Still, Span also has some value to the Rays on the field and in the clubhouse, so the team could at least begin the season with Span in a corner outfield role.
  • While there is a gap in ability between Eric Hosmer and Mitch Moreland, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe notes that the Red Sox may have found value in re-signing Moreland to a two-year, $13MM deal than in spending over $100MM more to sign Hosmer on what would have been a six- or seven-year contract.  As Speier observes, Hosmer is the better hitter overall, though Moreland offers more power and he had a higher xwOBA in 2017.  Hosmer could hit more home runs playing in Fenway Park, though Speier argues that the Sox would’ve been risking a lot on Hosmer successfully adjusting his swing from his current grounder-heavy offensive approach.  Moreland is also clearly the better defender of the two first basemen, at least per the Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 metrics.
  • While the Orioles have stated that they will keeping Manny Machado, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com guesses that the star third baseman will be in another uniform before Opening Day.  A Machado trade is “still under consideration no matter what words trickle out” since the O’s could easily reverse course if another team meets their asking price.  While several complications could certainly prevent a trade from taking place given Machado’s stature, Connolly believes the biggest hurdle was the Orioles’ decision to consider trading Machado whatsoever, and “taking that step tells me that they aren’t going backward.”

Latest on Gerrit Cole

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TODAY: Chance Adams and Miguel Andujar could be part of a hypothetical Yankees/Pirates trade for Cole, Kristie Ackert and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News report.  If those two prospects and Frazier are all included, that could mean the Pirates will also include Josh Harrison in the deal.  While the Yankees have also talked to the Diamondbacks about Patrick Corbin and the Tigers about Michael Fulmer, it seems as if Cole is New York’s preferred target of the three pitchers; Corbin is under control for just the 2018 season while Detroit is putting an enormous asking price on Fulmer’s services.

SATURDAY: A trade of Gerrit Cole doesn’t appear to be imminent at this point, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter). Though it seemed at one point that talks between the Yankees and Pirates were picking up momentum, Crasnick says that multiple clubs have engaged with the Pirates since the winter meetings; the prospect of a Cole trade isn’t “Yankees or bust”.

The Yankees don’t appear to have tunnel vision on a Cole deal, either. Though the Bronx Bombers are trying to net Pittsburgh’s prized right-hander with proposals centered around Clint Frazier, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that the Bombers offered similar packages to the Rays and Tigers for Chris Archer and Michael Fulmer, respectively. From my perspective, it seems as though the Yankees may not be interested in Cole specifically, but rather could have a broader objective to move the 23-year-old Frazier in exchange for pitching help. Following the club’s acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton, it appears as though Frazier is destined to be a high-ceiling depth piece for the Yankees, whose outfield picture features Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Stanton, with Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury also on the roster.

In a brilliant piece for the New York Post, Joel Sherman points out that the Yankees can afford to be patient, as they did with Stanton this winter and Sonny Gray this summer. They’re not desperate for pitching right now, as their rotation is set to feature Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Gray, CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery. While each of those pitchers carries a question mark or two (or in Sherman’s words, “red flag possibilities”), the ballclub wouldn’t be chastised if it were to have these five in the rotation come Opening Day. Furthermore, top prospects Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield could reach the majors before long, with Adams being the more likely of the two to contribute in 2018.

From the Pirates’ side, they don’t necessarily need another outfielder. However, it stands to reason that a trade of Cole could set off a domino effect that prompts Pittsburgh to sell off other pieces. As Brink states in a separate article (one that deals with the “what if” scenario of a Cole trade), trading the right-hander could act as “the first tug on the rope that raises the white flag on 2018.” In that case, they’d be highly likely to shop Andrew McCutchen, the 2013 NL MVP, and his hypothetical trade would mean that Frazier could suddenly become a useful piece.

It’s unclear how serious the Pirates’ talks are with other potential suitors at this time, or even whether those clubs have made formal offers. Crasnick notes in his above tweet that a deal probably won’t come together before Christmas, but adds that trade talks could pick up again between then and New Year’s. It stands to reason that Pittsburgh could be patient for months, or even wait until the 2018 trade deadline to trade Cole (if they opt to move him at all). It will of course be far more evident how the Pirates’ playoff chances compare with those of the other NL Central clubs. However, there are plenty of reasons to move him now as well, including the high probability that clubs would be willing to pay more to have Cole for a full season, and the risk that the Yankees might acquire a different starter.

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