Taking Inventory: Pittsburgh Pirates
The 2017 season was the second straight sub-.500 showing by the Pirates, who finished 75-87 and continued to distance themselves from a 2013-15 stretch in which they made the playoffs three straight times. It has now been three-plus months since the Pirates last took the field, though it’s not yet clear which direction they’ll take heading into 2018. While owner Bob Nutting would like to both buy and sell this winter, the Pirates have neither acquired any established major leaguers nor traded any away during what has been a plodding offseason across the majors. With spring training set to commence next month, action figures to pick up soon in Pittsburgh and other big league cities. If the Pirates do indeed sell players in the coming weeks, they have at least a few who would garner respectable returns, as evidenced below…
One-Year Rentals
Andrew McCutchen, OF ($14.5MM): Getting rid of McCutchen would be agonizing for the Pirates, who have seen the center fielder develop into a star and a beloved figure in their city since drafting him in 2005. Nevertheless, considering the Pirates have taken inquiries for him this winter a year after nearly trading him, it’s quite possible he has played his last game with the club. Given that he’s entering his last year of team control, McCutchen’s value now is likely higher than it’s going to be during the season. And the 31-year-old helped his stock in 2017 by hitting .279/.363/.486 with 28 home runs in 650 plate appearances, thus rebounding from a mediocre 2016 at the plate.
While McCutchen isn’t any kind of a defensive asset at this point, his bat still carries plenty of value, which has led to interest from the Mets and Giants. Getting McCutchen’s money off the books would appeal to the low-payroll Pirates, but that alone wouldn’t suffice – unsurprisingly, they also want a legitimate return for their longtime franchise face.
Jordy Mercer, SS ($6.5MM projected arbitration salary): The Pirates are reportedly content to keep the 31-year-old Mercer, who likely wouldn’t bring back much in a trade anyway. Mercer’s a lifetime .256/.316/.383 hitter who has only drawn up-and-down reviews from advanced defensive metrics since he became a regular in 2013.
Sean Rodriguez, UTIL ($5.75MM): Rodriguez was part of an August 2017 trade with the Braves in which he returned to the Pirates for struggling first base/outfield prospect Connor Joe. If Rodriguez’s value was low then, it’s in an even worse state now, given that he closed the season by hitting .168/.255/.274 in 106 PAs in Pittsburgh. Between the Braves and Pirates, Rodriguez batted an ugly .167/.276/.295 and struck out in 37.3 percent of PAs. In fairness to Rodriguez, it’s worth noting that an offseason car crash and the shoulder surgery he underwent thereafter likely played a part in his forgettable year.
Daniel Hudson, RHRP ($5.5MM): The hard-throwing Hudson didn’t produce to the level the Pirates hoped when they signed him as a free agent last winter, as he logged a 4.38 ERA with 9.63 K/9 and 4.82 BB/9 across 61 2/3 innings. More than half the league showed interest in Hudson in the weeks before he joined the Pirates, though, and that was off a season in Arizona that came with some rough patches. So, perhaps Hudson would be able to bring back something of a worth in a trade in the wake of last year’s unspectacular output.
Two Years Of Control
Francisco Cervelli, C ($22MM through 2019): Cervelli was a revelation for the Pirates in 2015, leading them to extend him the next year, but he hasn’t been nearly as effective recently. Injuries helped limit Cervelli to 182 games during the previous two seasons, including 81 in 2017. While Cervelli, 31, slashed a respectable .249/.342/.370 in 304 trips to the plate to continue a solid offensive career as a Buc, the excellent pitch framing he showed off in prior years was not on display. Now, considering Cervelli’s price tag, injury issues, 2017 defensive drop-off and the lack of contenders looking for a starting catcher, this doesn’t seem like the ideal time to move him. Interestingly, though, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review suggested that there were some trade rumors about Cervelli during the Winter Meetings last month.
Ivan Nova, RHP ($17MM through 2019): The unexpected success Nova experienced as a Pirate in late 2016 after coming over in a trade with the Yankees didn’t quite transfer last year. Still, in the first season of a three-year, $26MM deal, Nova ate innings (187) and posted a playable 4.14 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 1.73 BB/9 and a 45.7 percent groundball rate. On one hand, you’d expect plenty of teams in need of a capable back-end starter to have interest in the reasonably priced 30-year-old if the Pirates shop him. On the other, we were among many around the game to overestimate his market when he was a free agent in a weak class of starters a winter ago.
Gerrit Cole, RHP ($7.5MM projected salary): As a Scott Boras client whose team control is running out, it seems to be a matter of when – not if – the Pirates trade Cole. The 27-year-old fireballer has drawn widespread interest this offseason from teams seeking a mid-/front-of-the-rotation starter. The Yankees, Cubs and Twins are among many clubs that have inquired about Cole, who’d very likely bring back an impressive haul in a deal.
David Freese, 3B/1B ($4.25MM in 2018 and either a $6MM club option or a $500K buyout in 2019): There hasn’t been much trade buzz this offseason regarding Freese, who may lose playing time in Pittsburgh in 2018. The soon-to-be 35-year-old offered unexciting production for the fifth straight year in 2017, when he hit .263/.368/.371 in 503 PAs, though a roughly average player on an affordable salary shouldn’t be seen as valueless.
George Kontos, RHRP ($2.7MM projected salary): There doesn’t seem to be much value here – the Giants gave Kontos to the Pirates for nothing last August, after all – yet the 32-year-old has held his own in the majors. Kontos’ ERA ranged from 2.33 to 3.39 from 2014-17, and he has typically limited free passes in his career (2.62 BB/9). Further, while Kontos was a below-average strikeout pitcher in past seasons, he did register a career-high 9.5 K/9 and a personal-best 16.4 percent swinging-strike rate in 2017. He also recorded a .269 xwOBA against, beating out newly minted $52MM man Wade Davis (.289), among others.
Longer-Term Assets
Gregory Polanco, OF (controllable through 2023 for $54MM): Hamstring injuries helped limit Polanco to 108 games and just 0.5 fWAR in 411 PAs last season, when he batted a meager .251/.305/.391. While the 26-year-old has never been an offensive dynamo, his baserunning, defense and contract have combined to make him a valuable player. Barring a shocking trade, he’ll attempt to bounce back in Pittsburgh next season.
Starling Marte, OF (controllable through 2021 for $41.5MM): Marte was among the most valuable assets in the sport from 2013-16, when he hit, ran and defended his way to 16.4 fWAR, but the shine came off to a degree last season. Not only did Marte sit 80 games on account of a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, but he wasn’t any kind of force during the 77 contests in which he did appear. The 29-year-old hit a career-low .275/.333/.379 and experienced a dramatic decline in the power department, which has never been a major strength for him anyway. Like Polanco, though, there’s nothing to suggest the Pirates are interested in moving Marte or his still-appealing contract.
Josh Harrison, UTIL ($10MM salary in 2018 and club options totaling $22MM from 2019-20): As with McCutchen and Cole, Harrison has been a popular name in rumors this winter. Perhaps the Pirates should part with the 30-year-old Harrison now, given his recent inconsistency. Harrison broke out in 2014, but he followed that up with subpar showings from 2015-16 before rebounding to enjoy a quality season last year. The Yankees, Mets and Blue Jays are a few clubs that have pursued the infielder/outfielder this winter.
Felipe Rivero ($3.1MM projected salary; controllable through 2021): As an elite, flamethrowing reliever who’s under wraps for the foreseeable future, the left-handed Rivero is clearly one of the most valuable players in the Pittsburgh organization. The 26-year-old is now coming off the best full season of his career, during which he tossed 75 1/3 innings of 1.67 ERA ball and notched 10.51 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 52.9 percent grounder rate. Rivero also converted 21 of 23 save chances, and if he remains in the ninth inning for the Pirates, it’s only going to drive up his price in arbitration. There is a case to be made that the Pirates should shop Rivero now when his value’s at its zenith, especially if they don’t expect to compete in 2018, though it seems highly unlikely to happen.
While Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, Chad Kuhl, Trevor Williams and Tyler Glasnow are among other Pirates with trade value, there’s no reason to expect the team to market any of those pre-arb players.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Images.
Twins Have Shown Interest In Chris Tillman
The Twins have checked in on free agent right-hander Chris Tillman this offseason, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (Twitter link). They’re on a shortlist of teams that have shown reported interest in the soon-to-be 30-year-old Tillman, who has also been on the radar of the Orioles (his organization from 2008-17) and Tigers.
Free agency came at an inopportune time for Tillman, who, despite a generally successful career, saw his stock take a serious hit during a nightmarish 2017. Thanks to shoulder troubles, Tillman didn’t take the mound for the Orioles until mid-May, and when he was able to pitch, he posted a 7.84 ERA/6.93 FIP across 93 innings (21 appearances, 16 starts). Along the way, Tillman experienced a drop in velocity and managed just 6.1 K/9 against 4.94 BB/9, with unappealing groundball and home run-to-fly ball rates of 39.5 percent and 20 percent, respectively. He was also among the majors’ absolute worst hurlers by expected weighted on-base average against (.398), per Statcast, which suggests his actual wOBA allowed (.419) was largely deserved.
On the heels of last season’s woeful showing, Tillman has reportedly been seeking a one-year deal with the hope of rebuilding his stock and faring better on the market next winter. The Twins, meanwhile, have been looking for answers for a rotation that lacks appealing options behind Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios. Fresh off their first playoff season since 2010, the Twins have generally aimed high in their search for starters, having shown interest in the likes of Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole and Jake Odorizzi. Darvish seems to be No. 1 on Minnesota’s wish list, and Wolfson tweets that the team’s still waiting for a resolution on his situation before it potentially moves to add other starters.
At this point, Tillman is obviously a far less exciting possibility than Darvish or any of the other aforementioned names. However, in the event Tillman bounces back to something resembling his pre-2017 level, his presence would benefit the Twins. Tillman’s not far removed from a four-year stretch (2013-16) in which he exceeded the 170-inning mark in each season and combined for a 3.91 ERA/4.27 FIP with 6.99 K/9 against 3.13 BB/9 over 758 2/3 frames.
AL East Notes: Brach, Orioles, Ellsbury, Yankees, JDM
Trade rumblings around Orioles righty Brad Brach have settled down in the wake of Zach Britton‘s Achillies injury, as Baltimore will be turning to Brach as closer for at least half of the 2018 season. As Brach explained in an appearance on 105.7 The Fan’s “Orioles Hot Stove Show” (hat tip to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), however, he doesn’t mind being part of the speculation.
“I definitely pay attention to it and it’s easy to do in the offseason because it’s not affecting your work,” Brach said. “You don’t have to go in the mornings and go to MLBTradeRumors or turn on MLB Network and see your name and go to the park that night and pitch. The offseason you have all day and all night to kind of just sit there and mess around. And being from New Jersey, a lot of my friends are my fans, and as soon as my name got brought up I had a group text message and there were probably 50 text messages sent to me in about three minutes, so it’s hard to ignore it and especially in the offseason. I kind of like it. It’s fun. It kind of makes these winter months not drag as much.”
Thanks for the shoutout, Brad, even if MLBTR might not be causing quite as many text explosions in the near future. Some more from around the AL East…
- “The Orioles actually like (Jacoby) Ellsbury a little,” Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, though several hurdles stand in the way of the Yankees managing to deal the veteran outfielder. New York would have to eat the big majority of the $68.5MM remaining on Ellsbury’s contract, and he may prefer to only waive his no-trade protection for a deal that would send him closer to his home in Arizona. Ellsbury-to-Baltimore was first floated by the Yankees as part of trade talks about Manny Machado, though obviously the O’s would need a lot more than Ellsbury for such a deal given how Ellsbury has struggled in each of the last three seasons. While the Orioles’ interest in Ellsbury may be muted, his addition would bring more left-handed balance to Baltimore’s lineup and also perhaps open the door for Adam Jones to shift to right field.
- Ellsbury’s deal is the biggest obstacle facing the Yankees in their desire to both make further upgrades (including some potential big names) to their roster while also staying until the $197MM competitive balance tax threshold. Since an Ellsbury trade could be a tall order, Sherman writes that David Robertson might be the biggest trade chip “within reason” that would allow the Bronx Bombers to both move a large salary and score a quality return. Robertson is owed $13MM in 2018, his final year under contract, and Sherman wonders if a closer-needy team like the Cardinals would part with MLB-ready young talent for Robertson’s services. This does seem to be speculation, however, as Sherman notes that the Yankees have shown no willingness to trade from their loaded bullpen, plus Robertson is a closer-in-waiting should Aroldis Chapman get injured.
- The Red Sox are reportedly wary of giving J.D. Martinez more than five guaranteed years, which is a justifiable stance given how often longer-term contracts have backfired on teams (including the Sox themselves). WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford, however, presents the counterpoint, noting that an elite hitter like Martinez is a safer investment for a six- or seven-year deal since clubs like the Red Sox can eventually move him to a DH role. Boston has a clear need for a middle-of-the-order bat now, which Bradford feels Martinez can certainly fill in the short term given that the slugger (despite some recent injuries) has shown no signs of slowing down at the plate. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list predicted that Martinez would indeed land a contract beyond the five-year threshold, pegging him for six years and $150MM.
MLBTR Originals
Here is the past week’s worth of original content from the MLBTR writing team…
- Relievers have been pretty much the only members of the free agent class to see some serious action this winter, so Jeff Todd outlines which noteworthy bullpen arms are still available for teams in need of late-inning help.
- Contributor Matt Swartz and his arbitration model are back with the “Arbitration Breakdown” series, looking at some of this winter’s most interesting and perhaps influential arb cases. Mookie Betts (link), Khris Davis (link), and Manny Machado (link) are the first three players spotlighted.
- The “Taking Inventory” series continued, examining what the Reds, Padres, Rays, and Royals still have to offer in the way of possible trade chips.
- The start of the new year usually signals the beginning of extension season, as teams consider long-term deals for core players. Since clubs often try to lock up pre-arbitration players, Jeff looks at the record contracts given to players who were still awaiting arbitration eligibility.
- Connor Byrne took a look at what the 2017 postseason teams from the National League and American League have done this winter to reinforce their chances at some more October baseball.
- A majority (57.04%) of MLBTR readers polled feel that the Pirates should trade more than one of Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole, and Josh Harrison this offseason. In other surveys of the readership, Zack Cozart‘s three-year contract with the Angels was judged (with 33.25% of the vote) as the best three-year deal of the offseason so far, while 27.45% of readers polled feel J.T. Realmuto is the most likely of seven notable trade candidates to be dealt.
Mets Notes: Harrison, McCutchen, Lagares, Kendrick
Here are the latest rumblings from Citi Field, courtesy of Mike Puma of the New York Post…
- The recent talks between the Mets and Pirates about Andrew McCutchen may have actually been more focused around Josh Harrison, who has long been cited as a Mets target for their hole at second base. According to Puma, the Mets would’ve taken on the salaries of McCutchen ($14.75MM) and Harrison ($10MM in 2018, plus club options in 2019-20), preferring to give Pittsburgh salary relief rather than to deal prospects from New York’s thin farm system. Of course, the Mets have payroll restrictions of their own, which is why Juan Lagares (owed $15.5MM in 2018-19) would “almost certainly” have been going back to the Pirates in such a deal to help balance out the salaries. In my view, this trade doesn’t make much sense for the Pirates unless the Mets added significant minor league talent — Harrison and McCutchen are both quality trade chips for the Bucs, not mere salary dump candidates. A source tells Puma that a trade between the Mets and Pirates continues to remain unlikely.
- As for other second base options beyond Harrison, “Howie Kendrick is viewed by the Mets as a potential fit” due to his positional versatility and his reputation as a clubhouse leader. The Blue Jays and, potentially, the Nationals have been the only other teams linked to Kendrick this winter; interestingly, reports from a month ago indicated that the Mets weren’t interested in Kendrick, though obviously plans can change over the course of offseason business. Injuries limited Kendrick to 91 games and 344 PA last season, though the veteran was very productive (.315/.368/.475) when he was on the field for the Phillies and Nationals. Kendrick has seen much more time as an outfielder than as a second baseman over the last two years, though the Mets could deploy him all over the diamond rather than in a strict everyday role at the keystone.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Lynn, Cobb, Cashner, Soria, Bour, Swihart
Here are some hot stove-related items from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required and recommended)…
- The Nationals have interest in free agent righty Lance Lynn, though a signing would further put the team over the luxury tax threshold. Washington has been circling the starting pitching market all winter, with Jake Arrieta standing out as the top-tier name most often mentioned as a possibility due to the well-documented relationship between Nats ownership and Scott Boras (Arrieta’s agent). Arrieta, however, would be a considerably pricier signing than Lynn, though Lynn wouldn’t be cheap himself; MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projects Lynn for four years and $60MM.
- Alex Cobb isn’t looking for a $20MM average annual value in his next contract, according to “officials on both sides of the Cubs’ negotiations with” the free agent right-hander. Reports that this inflated asking price spurred the Cubs’ interest in Yu Darvish as an alternative to Cobb are also not accurate, as per these same officials.
- The Orioles recently met with Andrew Cashner and his representatives. Baltimore’s interest in Cashner dates back to at least the start of the offseason, and the O’s are still in sore need of arms to bolster their weak rotation. There hasn’t been a ton of buzz about Cashner on the rumor mill, though he is still reportedly looking for a three-year deal and there seems to be at least some interest between Cashner and the Rangers.
- The Athletics also had interest in Joakim Soria before the Royals dealt him to the White Sox earlier this week. Soria would’ve given the A’s extra closing depth behind Blake Treinen, and Oakland could also have potentially looked to move Soria at the trade deadline. The A’s have already made two notable additions (Yusmeiro Petit and Emilio Pagan) to their bullpen mix this winter, and it stands to reason that they could still be looking for more veteran relief help after missing out on Soria.
- Teams continue to ask the Marlins about Justin Bour, though the club wasn’t listening to offers about the first baseman during the Winter Meetings. Bour is one of Miami’s more intriguing long-term assets, just entering his arbitration years and coming off a season that saw him his .289/.366/.536 with 25 homers in 429 plate appearances. Bour’s age (he turns 3o in May) and the amount of depth at the first base position makes Bour a less-valuable trade chip for Miami than Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, though obviously the Fish would still garner a lot of interest in Bour if they made him available.
- Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Sox “are not looking to move” Blake Swihart, despite trade interest from other teams. The last two seasons were essentially a writeoff for Swihart, due to defensive issues behind the plate and ankle injuries that limited him to just 91 minor league games and 25 MLB games in 2016-17. Still, the Sox haven’t given up on the former top prospect, with Dombrowski noting that Swihart’s positional versatility has helped add to his value for the team. While Dombrowski noted that “you could never say you would not move him or anyone else,” Swihart is “still part of our plans….Sometimes you get stuck with players who are out of options. In this case, because of his flexibility, I think we’ve got a little better chance of getting through it.”
NL Notes: Brewers, Padres, Mets
A quick look around the National League…
- The Brewers are arguably in position to spend big on a free agent starting pitcher this offseason, but it’s unlikely to happen “unless prices come down,” Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. General manager David Stearns claims he’s “comfortable” with the team’s current rotation options – including the newly signed duo of Jhoulys Chacin and Yovani Gallardo. At the same time, he’s still working to improve the Brewers’ pitching and other areas of their roster. “I wouldn’t say we have anything that is imminent,” he told Haudricourt. “But that can always change with one phone call. We are involved on a number of fronts, some of them farther along than others. We’ll see where that takes us.”
- Outfield prospect Edward Olivares is someone San Diego had “been on for some time” before acquiring him in Saturday’s Yangervis Solarte trade with Toronto, Padres general manager A.J. Preller said (via Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Preller went on to reveal that the Padres may not be done trading infielders, even after shipping out Solarte. “We’re still having discussions on the different infielders, and we’ll see how things play out,” stated Preller, who admitted after acquiring third baseman Chase Headley last month that he could flip him. Other teams had also called about Cory Spangenberg and Carlos Asuaje at that point.
- The Mets and reliever Jenrry Mejia avoided arbitration this week, settling on a $1.729MM salary, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). However, Mejia isn’t in position to collect that money, as Heyman notes. Major League Baseball issued Mejia a lifetime ban in February 2016 after his third positive test for performance-enhancing drugs.
Checking In On Last Year’s National League Playoff Teams
Earlier this week, we checked in on how last year’s five American League playoff qualifiers have addressed their rosters since this still-quiet offseason began in November. We’ll follow up today with the National League, starting with the reigning pennant winners…
Los Angeles Dodgers (2017 record: 104-58; current FanGraphs projection for 2018: 94-68): The Dodgers’ financial clout hasn’t been on display this winter, owing to a desire to get under the $197MM competitive balance tax figure in 2018. Los Angeles helped its cause in that regard last month by dumping the contracts of Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy on the Braves and only getting back old friend Matt Kemp, whom the team seems likely to flip elsewhere or release prior to the season.
Aside from a household name in Kemp, whose best days are long gone, the newest Dodgers may not be all that familiar to casual fans. Their only major league signing, former back-end Marlins starter Tom Koehler, took a $2MM guarantee to work as a reliever in 2018. There’s optimism Koehler will thrive in that role, as FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan highlighted last month. On the other hand, southpaw Scott Alexander has already demonstrated excellence as a major league reliever, and the Dodgers acquired the groundball machine from the Royals this week in a deal that saw them part with fellow lefty Luis Avilan. LA’s hope is that Koehler and Alexander will ably step in for Avilan, 2017 standout Brandon Morrow – who joined the Cubs in free agency – and the still-unsigned Tony Watson.
Speaking of unsigned players, high-end starter Yu Darvish remains without a contract two months after the market opened. Two disastrous World Series starts notwithstanding, Darvish was mostly outstanding as a Dodger after they acquired him from the Rangers at last July’s trade deadline. While the Dodgers have discussed a reunion with Darvish this offseason, it’s hard to picture it coming to fruition when considering their wariness toward the tax and the expensive pact he’s sure to secure.
Generally, Dodgers president Andrew Friedman has been hesitant to hand out large contracts – a key reason the team was only on the periphery in the sweepstakes for the extremely costly Giancarlo Stanton, despite reports that he’d have preferred to play in his hometown of LA. As such, any splashy pickups may be more likely to come via trade than free agency. The Dodgers, in fact, tried to swing a deal for Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. earlier this offseason. That trade would’ve cost the Dodgers Yasiel Puig, but the Red Sox were uninterested in making the move.
Washington Nationals (2017 record: 97-65; current projection for 2018: 91-71): Fortunately for the Nationals, they haven’t and won’t lose any integral contributors from last year’s team to the open market. Nevertheless, Washington has been active in the rumor mill lately, with catching, pitching and outfield upgrades on the club’s radar.
Entering what could be the final season of the Bryce Harper era in D.C., reports have connected the Nationals to the likes of J.T. Realmuto, Alex Avila, Jake Arrieta, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Greg Holland and Christian Yelich in recent weeks. Adding Realmuto, Avila or Jonathan Lucroy would be especially beneficial for a team that received the worst behind-the-plate production in the majors last season. The Nationals thought they found their solution at catcher a year ago when they signed Matt Wieters, but the Scott Boras client hasn’t been effective over a full season since 2013. Although Wieters is guaranteed $10.5MM in 2018, Washington would be hard-pressed to count on him again as a regular.
Just as he did last year with Wieters, there’s speculation that Boras could end up talking Nationals ownership into taking on one of his high-profile free agents this winter. Boras has a longstanding relationship with the franchise, and inking any of Arrieta, Holland or outfielder J.D. Martinez to big-money pacts would address areas the Nats have been looking at this winter. To this point, their free agent signings have been modest – they re-upped reliever Brandon Kintzler and brought in reserve first baseman Matt Adams.
Chicago Cubs (2017 record: 92-70; current projection for 2018: 92-70): Free agency has been a mixed bag for the Cubs, who have been aggressive in adding players as others have reached the market. Arrieta is still out there, as mentioned, though the Cubs lost 2017 closer Wade Davis to the Rockies. For now, they’re slated to replace Davis with Morrow, who, for what it’s worth (maybe nothing), doesn’t come with the “proven closer” tag. Morrow is one of five pitchers the Cubs have inked to big league deals this offseason, joining two other relievers (Steve Cishek and Dario Alvarez) and a pair of starters (Tyler Chatwood and Drew Smyly, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery).
While president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have been busy, they’re definitely not done upgrading their team’s pitching staff. Whether it’s a rumored possibility – Arrieta, Darvish, Archer, Alex Cobb, Gerrit Cole or Danny Duffy – or an off-the-radar name, the Cubs will add another starter to round out a rotation that currently includes Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood.
Additionally, Chicago could make a splash in the position player market, as reports have linked them to Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Orioles infielder Manny Machado,. A left side alignment of Kris Bryant at third base and Machado at short would be transcendent, but the latter’s only under control for another year. Consequently, teams have been reluctant to meet the O’s lofty asking price for Machado. In the event the Cubs do reel in Machado, it’s unclear what it would mean for starting middle infielders Addison Russell and Javier Baez, who are under wraps for the foreseeable future. Notably, the Cubs dangled Baez in talks with the Padres at last month’s Winter Meetings.
Arizona Diamondbacks (2017 record: 93-69; current projection for 2018: 84-78): On the heels of a surprisingly great season, the Diamondbacks apparently aren’t in financial position to do anything significant in free agency. While ace Zack Greinke is occupying a massive chunk of payroll and has drawn some trade interest this winter, the 34-year-old’s contract makes a deal a long shot. Greinke’s presence, while highly beneficial in 2017, is one reason J.D. Martinez is likely to sign elsewhere after an incredible second-half run with the D-backs last season.
Meanwhile, 2017 closer Fernando Rodney (Twins) and catcher Chris Iannetta (Rockies) have already left, though they obviously aren’t nearly as important as Martinez. The Diamondbacks may attempt to replace Rodney in the ninth inning with either of their two new bullpen pickups, Brad Boxberger or Yoshihisa Hirano. Boxberger, whom they grabbed in a trade with the Rays, has been an effective major league reliever (including a stint as a closer), but injuries have beset him lately. Hirano was a great closer in Japan before immigrating to Arizona last month for a guaranteed $6MM.
To this point, Boxberger and Hirano stand as the Diamondbacks’ only noteworthy additions, but GM Mike Hazen expects more moves to occur. Trading starter Patrick Corbin and his projected $8.3MM salary is reportedly a possibility, and clearing his salary would enable the D-backs to address other areas either through trades or free agency. They’ve aimed high on the trade front, having been connected to Machado, Yelich and Marcell Ozuna (who’s now out of the picture after going from the Marlins to the Cardinals). Speculatively, the D-backs could also pursue an offensive upgrade over defensively gifted catcher Jeff Mathis – particularly in the wake of Iannetta’s exit – though Hazen has downplayed that possibility.
Colorado Rockies (2017 record: 87-75; current projection for 2018: 80-82): Like division-rival Arizona, Colorado was among 2017’s biggest surprises. The Rockies haven’t rested on their laurels since the D-backs ousted them in the wild-card game, having signed a trio of established relievers – Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee – to three-year deals worth a guaranteed $106MM. Davis and Shaw, two newcomers, will replace Holland and Pat Neshek. Thanks to Davis, Shaw, McGee and the Adam Ottavino–Mike Dunn tandem, the Rockies have the priciest bullpen in the game, which they were able to assemble thanks in part to a starting staff that’s peppered with inexpensive hurlers.
Of course, it’s debatable whether the Rockies’ approach is the right one. They’re on pace to start next season well ahead of last year’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll of $127MM-plus, and that’s without having done anything major to upgrade either their rotation – which lost Chatwood – or position player group. The Rockies addressed the latter area to a degree when they brought in Iannetta, though his signing may rule out a Lucroy re-up.
Given that the Rockies’ two best players, third baseman Nolan Arenado (two years) and center fielder Charlie Blackmon (one year), are running low on team control, there’s an argument that they should be aggressively trying to upgrade their lineup around them. But the Rockies haven’t been in on any of Martinez, Eric Hosmer or Logan Morrison to this point. They have shown interest in Jay Bruce, though, and he’d seemingly be a higher-impact signing (and a higher-cost one, granted) than fellow rumored possibilities Mark Reynolds and Carlos Gonzalez – both of whom posted mediocre production as Rockies over the past couple years.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Donaldson, Hosmer, Pads, Cards, Twins, Marlins, Yanks
This week in baseball blogs…
- Jays From the Couch and BP Toronto each explore an extension for Josh Donaldson.
- Chin Music Baseball regards the Padres as an odd fit for Eric Hosmer.
- East Village Times sees Lorenzo Cain as a better target than Hosmer for the Pads.
- The Redbird Daily wants the Cardinals to pass on Hosmer in favor of Logan Morrison.
- 216Stitches analyzes this winter’s class of free agent outfielders.
- Twins Daily ranks Minnesota’s best assets.
- Underthought criticizes Marlins ownership for breaking up an elite outfield.
- The Runner Sports (links: 1, 2) looks at a potential Manny Machado acquisition for the Yankees. TRS also profiles a pair of potential two-way players for the Astros.
- Reviewing The Brew‘s writers discuss an ideal future outfield alignment for the Brewers.
- The Point of Pittsburgh compares the Pirate careers of Barry Bonds and Andrew McCutchen during their team-controlled years.
- Righteous Shift is holding out hope that Indians third baseman Yandy Diaz‘s power will come around in 2018.
- The Loop Sports reacts to the White Sox’s Joakim Soria and Luis Availan acquisitions.
- Big Three Sports writes about the adjustments Byron Buxton made at the plate last season.
- The K Zone is bullish on Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes.
- Camden Depot challenges the notion that Orioles owner Peter Angelos is cheap.
- Pinstriped Prospects examines the state of the Yankees’ 25-man roster.
- Blue Jays Beat wonders if the club should trade Devon Travis.
- Sports Talk Philly and Call to the Pen each focus on the Phillies’ lineup.
- Pirates Breakdown explains how the Pirates could hit for more power next season.
- Rox Pile names 18 things for the Rockies to look forward to in 2018.
- District On Deck makes five Nationals predictions for 2018.
- Jays Journal lists 12 Toronto predictions for this year.
- NY Yankees Digest offers some predictions for the Bronx Bombers.
- Kennedy’s Commentary addresses the lack of veteran free agent signings this winter.
- DiNardo’s Dugout (podcast) covers topics including the slow-moving offseason and the Rockies’ acquisitions.
- Mets Daddy argues that Johan Santana doesn’t merit Hall of Fame enshrinement.
- Everything Bluebirds previews Jays shortstop Troy Tulowitzki‘s season.
- Dodgers Way forecasts salaries for the team’ arbitration-eligible players.
- The Giants Cove criticizes the club for “a one-dimensional approach to roster building” in recent years.
- Rotisserie Duck pays tribute to the former major leaguers who passed away in 2017.
- Chris Zantow remembers former major league player and coach Rob Picciolo, who died this week.
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AL Rumors: Jays, Lynn, Rangers, Cashner, Tigers, Orioles, Machado
The Blue Jays have shown at least some offseason interest in free agent right-hander Lance Lynn and center fielder Jarrod Dyson, according to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, who also lists the previously reported Lorenzo Cain and Alex Cobb. Whether they add any of those players, other free agents or go the trade route, the Blue Jays still have the payroll flexibility to make notable moves, Davidi explains. And general manager Ross Atkins suggested to Davidi and other reporters Saturday that the Jays aren’t yet satisfied with their their outfield or starting pitching, adding that they “could go several directions” for help. “We feel like we have one of the better systems in baseball, it’s not the best, we still have work to do, we feel that we’re probably in the top third, but we have plenty of depth to protect us throughout the major-league season, to provide options for us throughout the major-league season and to trade from,” Atkins said. “Whether that’s a bigger deal or a smaller deal, we’ll see, but we are now in a position where we have that option.”
More on a few other American League teams:
- The Rangers are still in touch with free agent right-hander Andrew Cashner, who’s interested in re-signing with the team, TR Sullivan of MLB.com reports. After Cashner joined the Rangers on a $10MM guarantee last winter, the Texas native proceeded to toss 166 2/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball, but that came with the majors’ worst K/BB ratio among qualified starters. Cashner, 31, is reportedly seeking a three-year contract this time around. If the Rangers ultimately do bring Cashner back, he’d follow Doug Fister, Mike Minor and Matt Moore as the fourth established rotation piece to latch on with them this winter (though Minor hasn’t started a big league game since 2014).
- Earlier this week, Tigers general manager Al Avila discussed the futures of shortstop Jose Iglesias, third baseman/outfielder Nicholas Castellanos and catcher James McCann with Dan Dickerson and Pat Caputo on 97.1’s The Ticket (via Katie Strang of The Athletic; subscription required and strongly recommended). Avila expects Iglesias to be the Tigers’ Opening Day shortstop, but he acknowledged that the 28-year-old’s time with the franchise is likely to conclude in the near future. Iglesias “may well be traded at the trade deadline, if not sooner, depending on the needs that teams have out there for a shortstop,” said Avila. Strang goes on to break down potential replacements within the organization for Iglesias, who’s in his last year of arbitration eligibility (he’ll make a projected $5.6MM). Castellanos is in his penultimate year of arb control, meanwhile, and he’ll collect around $7.6MM. Although the Tigers have come up short in extending Castellanos, “he might be a guy that we stick with,” commented Avila, who noted that the soon-to-be 26-year-old’s stock would increase “quite a bit” if he were to make a successful transition to the outfield. McCann is under control for the next three years, but Avila suggested that he could be a trade candidate, per Strang. (In case you missed it, MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently examined Iglesias, Castellanos, McCann and the rest of Detroit’s potential trade chips.)
- The Diamondbacks “doubled back with renewed interest” in Orioles infielder Manny Machado, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. A deal is not imminent, though, as Kubatko notes that nobody has sent the pitching-needy Orioles an offer good enough to convince them to move Machado. As of December, Arizona reportedly wasn’t willing to part with third baseman Jake Lamb in a Machado package.