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Pirates Could Add To Offense By Dealing From Pitching Depth

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The Pirates are scouring the trade market for ways to improve their lineup, and given the lack of pure sellers with available bats, one potential avenue the team has explored is trading from another area of its major league roster to augment the offense. General manager Ben Cherington discussed such a possibility on Sunday (link via Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), and he mentioned just today that the team has an abundance of pitching that could appeal to other clubs (also via Hiles).

Pittsburgh indeed has a deceptively deep collection of arms, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored last Wednesday in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that a back-end starter such as Bailey Falter or perhaps a late-inning relievers like Aroldis Chapman or even Colin Holderman and David Bednar could be in play if the Bucs indeed want to use their collection of arms to add a bat. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com tweets that the Pirates have been willing to deal from the bullpen to improve the lineup but also adds that some of the team’s pitching prospects could come into play.

It goes without saying that Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller don’t factor into this thinking. That excellent trio is the very foundation on which the Pirates’ staff will be built for the next several years. But the Buccos have plenty of affordable back-of-the-rotation options.

The Braves are covering all but $3MM of Marco Gonzales’ salary this season. He’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA with a 17.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate in 26 1/3 innings and has looked sharp since returning from a two-month IL stint owing to a muscle strain in his forearm. A team looking for an affordable fourth or fifth starter (e.g. Twins, Astros, Guardians) could be intrigued. Falter is currently on the injured list due to tendinitis in his triceps but should be back before long. He’s posted a 4.08 ERA in 17 starts (90 1/3 innings) while fanning 16.7% of his opponents against a 7.7% walk rate. He’s out of minor league options but controlled another four seasons beyond the 2024 campaign. Martin Perez tossed six shutout innings today but did so while issuing five walks and only lowered his ERA to 5.20 in the process. He’s earning $8MM, which makes it hard to see him bringing back a bat of note.

In terms of less-established options, the Pirates have names like Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft to peddle. Priester has gotten some MLB experience, but the former top prospect has yet to establish himself as a core rotation piece. Burrows and Ashcraft haven’t yet debuted. The former only just returned from Tommy John surgery performed last April. He’s slowly moving up the minor league ladder on a rehab assignment. The latter has had a breakout season between Double-A and Triple-A.

The Pirates surely don’t want to deplete their stock of arms too greatly, but in an ideal world, top prospect Bubba Chandler will claim a rotation spot by 2025. At that point, there’s a notable glut of arms with only one rotation spot truly open. Even if Chandler needs more time or gets hurt, Pittsburgh would still have him, Priester, Falter, Ashcraft, Burrows, Luis Ortiz and Johan Oviedo (recovering from offseason Tommy John surgery) as long-term rotation options behind Skenes, Jones and Keller.

In the bullpen, Chapman is back to his excessively wild ways. He’s fanned a mammoth 36.6% of his opponents but also issued walks at a woeful 19.5% clip. To Chapman’s credit, he’s been better in that regard after a shaky April/May showing. Over the past two months, he’s sitting on a 3.43 ERA, 35.6% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate. That’s still too many free passes, but it’s more in line with some past marks from Chapman, who has frequently been able to overcome poor command because of his blistering velocity and knack for missing bats. Overall, Chapman sports a 3.93 ERA on the season. He’s being paid $10.5MM, and the Pirates still owe him about $3.72MM as of this writing. He’s a free agent at season’s end.

Both Bednar and especially Holderman would come with greater appeal. Bednar has long frequented the pages of MLBTR in past trade deadlines and offseasons. Clubs throughout the league have targeted the Pittsburgh-area native since he established himself with his hometown club, but a deal has never come together. Now, Bednar is struggling through a career-worst season, with a 4.98 ERA in 34 1/3 innings. The shaky ERA seems tied largely to a spike in homer-to-flyball rate; from 2021-23, only 6.6% of Bednar’s fly balls became homers. This year, he’s nearly doubled that, sitting at 12.2%. Bednar is also allowing more fly balls than ever (50%), making the timing of that spike most unwelcome.

Still, there’s plenty of track record with Bednar, who from ’21-’23 posted a 2.25 ERA with 61 saves and elite strikeout and walk rates. He’s earning $4.51MM this season and is controllable through the 2026 campaign.

The 28-year-old Holderman would be difficult to trade. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible, though he will be this season as a Super Two player. Holderman is controlled four more years, all the way through 2028, and has delivered 36 2/3 innings of 1.72 ERA ball this season, fanning 28.8% of his opponents against a 10.9% walk rate. Moving on from a controllable leverage reliever of that ilk isn’t easy, though the Bucs could consider it a nifty piece of business to acquire Holderman from the Mets in exchange for Daniel Vogelbach (back in 2022) and then trade him for a more impactful bat just two years later. And with so many arms in the system behind Skenes, Keller and Jones, some of those in-house options are going to wind up in the bullpen.

Trades of Holderman and Bednar seem like a long shot, particularly since the latter would be selling low on a popular hometown All-Star. That said, the Bucs do have a large stock of arms from which to deal. Moving an established reliever/starter for a bat could open the door for any number of young, promising in-house replacements, while a more conventional swap might simply see them trade some of those prospects for immediate offensive help — ideally a bat controlled for multiple years beyond the current season.

Mets Place Christian Scott On Injured List With UCL Sprain

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July 24: The Mets’ plan for Scott is to rest and rehab for the time being, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The hope is that he can return before season’s end. Given the timing of the injury, it’s sensible enough to try for the rest/rehab route even if surgery has been considered as an option. Surgery might knock Scott out until the end of the 2025 campaign anyhow, so the Mets will go with a non-surgical treatment in hopes that he can return late in the year and then have the offseason for further rest.

July 23: The Mets announced that right-hander Christian Scott has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right UCL sprain, retroactive to July 22. Left-hander Alex Young was recalled in a corresponding move.

At this point, it’s unclear how severe Scott’s sprain is or how long the Mets expect him to be out, but it’s a concerning development nonetheless. The ulnar collateral ligament is the one replaced in Tommy John surgery and a sprain, by definition, involves some degree of stretching or tearing.

That’s not to say that Scott is definitely going under the knife, as pitchers are sometimes able to return from a UCL sprain via non-surgical means. For a recent and perhaps best-case example, Mason Miller of the Athletics was diagnosed with a mild UCL sprain in May of last year. He missed a few months of the season but was back with the club by September and has been one of the best relievers in baseball here in 2024.

But avoiding the scalpel can also be a temporary measure, as seen in the case of Kyle Bradish of the Orioles. He was diagnosed with a UCL sprain in Spring Training this year but was reinstated from the IL by early May. But after eight starts with the O’s, he was back on the IL and then required Tommy John surgery.

Further updates will reveal more about Scott’s absence but, as mentioned, it’s not good news either way. The young pitcher’s stock has been skyrocketing over the past two years, as he posted a 2.57 ERA in the minors last year. Across 87 2/3 innings at three different levels, he struck out 31.9% of batters and walked just 3.6%.

He’s continued pitching well in the minors this year and has also made his major league debut. His first nine starts at the big league level haven’t been outstanding, as he has a 4.56 ERA and a 19.8% strikeout rate, but that’s a fairly small sample size and he’s obviously still just getting his feet wet in the majors.

The Mets were undoubtedly hoping that he would continue his development, putting up better numbers as he went along, but that will be on pause for an undetermined amount of time. Even losing him for just a few months will take him out of the club’s rotation plans for the stretch run. The Mets are currently 51-48 and clinging to the final Wild Card spot in the National League. As they look to keep that spot, they will do so without Scott in their rotation mix for now.

Kodai Senga is expected to come off the IL this week, joining the rotation alongside Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino and David Peterson. The club also has Tylor Megill on optional assignment and José Buttó and Adrian Houser currently in the big league bullpen. It was reported a few weeks ago that the club had enough healthy rotation options that they were considering trading someone from that group while still trying to compete this year. Reporting from this week threw some cold water on that and this news about Scott perhaps makes that even less likely, though the club at least has a number of solid rotation options to press forward even if their trade options have been diminished.

On top of the immediate impact of subtracting from the club’s rotation depth, it’s less than ideal for a developing starter to be missing significant time. That’s true even if it’s just a few months but it would obviously be even more true if Scott ends up requiring surgery and perhaps missing all of 2025.

The A’s Difficult Deadline Decision

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The A's are one of the few obvious sellers this summer. Oakland will certainly move some players by next Tuesday, but it's not clear if they'll dominate the trade market. The A's don't have anyone on significant long-term commitments that they'll be trying to offload. They could move a couple middle relievers and call it a deadline.

That's not all that interesting. Their bigger decisions will be whether to deal players under team control. They've reportedly set a massive demand on Mason Miller, whom they could stretch back into a rotation role next season. Miller has been the subject of a ton of trade speculation with good reason. There's been less chatter, at least publicly, about Brent Rooker.

The front office might have an even tougher call in the coming days regarding Rooker than they do with their star closer. Rooker has been one of the most productive offensive players in baseball over the past season and a half. He could be the best hitter traded. Yet his winding career arc makes him a tricky player to value -- potentially making it tough for the A's and other teams to align on an asking price.

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J.P. Crawford, Julio Rodriguez Facing Notable Absences

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The Mariners’ offense is already reeling, and they’ll now be without two prominent hitters for significant stretches in the season’s second half. General manager Justin Hollander tells the Mariners beat that shortstop J.P. Crawford, who was placed on the 10-day IL yesterday with a fracture in his hand, will miss at least four to six weeks (X link via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). A timetable for Julio Rodriguez, who landed on the IL at the same time due to a right high ankle sprain, will be reevaluated seven to ten days from now. That doesn’t shed much light on an exact return date for Rodriguez, but it seems clear he’ll miss more than the 10-day minimum with his injury.

Neither Crawford nor Rodriguez has performed up to their personal standards in 2024 — a large reason that Seattle’s lineup has been among the least-productive in the sport. Crawford is playing excellent defense at shortstop but is hitting just .204/.299/.347 on the season. For a player who batted .262/.352/.384 over the three prior seasons — including a career-best .266/.380/.438 just last season — it’s a major downturn in performance.

As for Rodriguez, he’s been about average at the plate this season (.263/.315/.372), but that’s still a precipitous fall for a hitter who burst into the majors with a .279/.338/.495 batting line and 60 homers through his first 287 games. Rodriguez swatted 32 big flies just last season but only has 11 on the year in 2024. His isolated power (slugging minus batting average) sat at .216 in 2022-23 but has plummeted to .109 this year. The timing of his injury is particularly difficult, as Rodriguez looked to finally be getting hot at the plate this month. In his past 48 turns at the dish, he’d delivered a scintillating .409/.469/.750 slash with four homers and three doubles.

With Crawford shelved, the Mariners will likely turn to Dylan Moore and Leo Rivas as their top options at shortstop. Moore’s .230/.307/.425 output against lefties is a solid enough mark, though virtually any defensive metric will agree that he’s stretched too thin playing shortstop on a regular basis. Rivas could take up the larger side of a platoon, in theory. He’s only had six big league plate appearances to this point in his career, but the switch-hitter is batting .288/.440/.397 in 195 plate appearances as a left-handed hitter this season.

In the outfield, Rodriguez’s loss stings even more. The Mariners can go with an alignment of Luke Raley, Victor Robles and Mitch Haniger on most days, with Cade Marlowe and Jonatan Clase as options on the bench. No one from that group can replicate the production of a healthy Rodriguez. For now, the team will hope for good news at his reevaluation, but it’s hard to imagine this pair of injuries won’t impact the Mariners’ outlook at the trade deadline.

Seattle was already known to be seeking a significant upgrade for a lineup that currently ranks 28th in the majors both in runs scored (389) and on-base percentage (.298). The Mariners are actually tied with the Guardians for the 12th-most homers in MLB, but their bottom-of-the-barrel OBP has led to a disproportionate number of solo shots. Seattle has an elite rotation and the makings of an excellent bullpen now that Gregory Santos has rejoined the mix, but the lack of bats is a glaring issue that was already expected to dictate their deadline trajectory. Now, with Crawford and Rodriguez out for a significant period, it seems all the more likely that the Mariners will strive to bolster the lineup in a meaningful way.

Nationals’ Josiah Gray Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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July 24: Gray underwent a Tommy John procedure and internal brace, tweets Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. He’ll miss at least the bulk of next season.

July 19: Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray has been diagnosed with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and will undergo season-ending surgery next week, tweets Bobby Blanco of MASNsports.com. Gray tells reporters that it hasn’t yet been determined whether he’ll undergo a traditional Tommy John surgery, an internal brace procedure or a hybrid of both (X link via Andrew Golden of the Washington Post). That determination won’t be made until the surgery is being performed, but he’ll be sidelined well into next season regardless.

Gray, 26, came to the Nats alongside catcher Keibert Ruiz in the blockbuster 2021 deadline trade sending Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers. He stepped into the Nats’ rotation that same summer and has been a fixture on the staff since, although he’s only been healthy enough to make two starts in 2024. Gray was rocked for 13 runs in just 8 1/3 innings across those two outings before heading to the injured list with a flexor strain.

Just a few weeks ago, things looked to be trending up for Gray. He went out on a minor league rehab assignment on June 9 and, after a shaky first outing, allowed four runs in 15 innings across his next three starts. He tossed six innings in a Triple-A appearance on June 25 and allowed just one run on four hits and no walks with four punchouts. At the time, it seemed that with one more rehab outing, Gray would get the go-ahead to rejoin the Nationals’ rotation.

His next start, however, yielded disastrous results. He was torched for seven runs in just three innings and exited the game with an injury — this time feeling discomfort in his right elbow. Further testing was performed, and Gray unfortunately received the worst-case scenario for any pitcher when he undergoes testing on his elbow.

A former second-round pick, Gray was long touted as a top prospect before his big league debut — not necessarily because of an ace-caliber ceiling but because he was considered a very likely third or fourth starter. In 2023, he looked to have emerged as just that with the Nats, tossing 159 innings with a 3.91 ERA. Gray’s 20.5% strikeout rate and particularly his 11.5% walk rate were worse than the league average, but he substantially cut back on his prior home run troubles last season. Even with sub-par strikeout and walk rates, Gray looked the part of an innings-eating back-end starter, and given that he was just entering his age-26 season, the possibility for another step forward remained.

Now, he’ll be sidelined well into his age-27 campaign — potentially missing the majority of next season, depending on the extent of the surgery he requires. A Tommy John or Tommy John/internal brace hybrid could come with a recovery timetable of up to 14 months. If his recovery is indeed on the lengthy end of the spectrum, it’s possible this injury will knock him out until Opening Day 2026.

Gray entered the 2024 season with 2.075 years of service. He’s been collecting big league service time on the injured list and will continue to do so for the remainder of the year. He’ll finish at 3.075 years and qualify for arbitration for the first time. He’s entrenched in the team’s plans and has three seasons of control remaining beyond the current year, so there’s no chance he’ll be considered a non-tender candidate, even if it’s possible he misses all of next year.

Subtracting Gray from the rotation outlook is a significant punch to the Nationals’ outlook over the next year-plus. With Patrick Corbin coming off the books and top prospect Cade Cavalli soon to return from his own Tommy John procedure, the Nats could look ahead to a 2025 rotation of Gray, Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore, breakout righty Jake Irvin and impressive rookie Mitchell Parker — to say nothing of any potential offseason additions to the pitching staff.

With Gray now on the shelf, that’ll only add further motivation for longtime baseball ops leader Mike Rizzo to add some rotation help in the winter (or perhaps to nab a near-MLB-ready arm at this month’s July 30 trade deadline). The Nationals aren’t quite done with their rebuilding effort — they traded Hunter Harvey last week and could well trade Kyle Finnegan, Jesse Winker and others before the deadline — but are in the final stages. James Wood, the sport’s No. 1 prospect per Baseball America, made his debut earlier this month. Gore, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. have cemented themselves as core players this season. Last year’s No. 2 overall pick, Dylan Crews, should make his big league debut before long. Things are trending up, but the injury to Gray is a setback of some note that figures to factor into the organization’s offseason outlook.

Christian Yelich Could Require Back Surgery

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12:02pm: Yelich is meeting with a spine specialist tomorrow, and season-ending back surgery is a possibility, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

“Everybody plays through stuff, but  sometimes you just can’t,” Yelich tells McCalvy. “That’s kind of where we’re at, at this point. Your body won’t cooperate with you.”

10:35am: The Brewers announced this morning that they’ve placed Christian Yelich on the 10-day injured list due to lower back inflammation. Catcher Gary Sanchez was activated from the IL to take Yelich’s spot on the roster.

Yelich exited yesterday’s win over the Cubs with tightness in his back, and he’s taken a more ominous tone this morning when discussing the injury with the Brewers beat. He’s headed to see a specialist, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (X link), and Yelich’s description of what comes next foreshadowed a potentially notable absence.

“Go from there as far as what’s going to be best for the near future and into the future,” Yelich said of his visit to a back specialist. “A couple different discussions I think that need to be had.”

Yelich, 32, saw his production tail off in 2020-21, but the former MVP has been on the upswing since. His numbers have improved in three straight seasons, culminating in a vintage .315/.406/.504 batting line through his first 315 plate appearances of the 2024 season. That’s 56% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, which stands as the third-highest mark in Yelich’s excellent career. His reemergence as one of the National League’s best and most well-rounded offensive players has played a huge role in Milwaukee’s five-game lead in the division, but Yelich’s comments this morning are far from optimistic.

The Brewers are deeper in outfielders than most clubs, so there are plenty of internal options to step into his spot, though clearly no one can be expected to replicate Yelich’s standout offense this season. Still, Milwaukee has Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins all on the big league roster at the moment. Former top prospect Joey Wiemer has a 16.6% walk rate and .376 OBP down in Triple-A (though his typical power output has curiously been M.I.A.). Milwaukee also just added the appropriately named Brewer Hicklen to its 40-man roster last week; the 28-year-old has hit .274/.383/.569 with 19 homers and 27 steals in Triple-A Nashville after signing a minor league deal in the offseason.

It’s not yet clear how much time Yelich can be expected to miss, but with the trade deadline just six days away, it’s easy enough to see this injury having some broad-reaching impact on the Brewers’ deadline outlook. Yelich’s absence could make the Brewers more wary of dealing from that stash of controllable young outfielders. It’s also feasible that a long-term absence could push the Brewers to look into adding a bat, regardless of position. Yelich has been the team’s best hitter and has also appeared in 26 games as a designated hitter. That could open up some at-bats for any new hitter to step into the lineup.

Starting pitching figures to remain the Brewers’ focus, even after adding Aaron Civale in a deal with the Rays earlier this month, but Yelich’s injury is a difficult one to stomach for a division-leading team. There’s no comparable hitter who could be had, of course, but it stands to reason that a long-term absence for Yelich could prompt Milwaukee to look at a variety of bats who could deepen the lineup.

Tigers Getting Trade Interest In Mark Canha

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When looking at the Tigers’ potential trade candidates, the majority of focus is understandably on starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Tarik Skubal. (The former seems likely to move, the latter does not.) But for all the deserved attention on those arms, Detroit’s roster has several other pieces who could pique the interest of contending clubs. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that outfielder/first baseman Mark Canha, for instance, has a “robust” market and could change hands between now and next Tuesday.

Canha, 35, is earning $11.5MM this season and will be a free agent this winter. He’s hit .236/.341/.361 in 358 plate appearances, checking in about 3% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. Canha’s 19.8% strikeout rate is lower than average, and his 11.2% walk rate is comfortably north of average. He’s played both outfield corners and first base in 2024, not necessarily excelling at any one spot but providing a capable hand at each position.

It’s not an eye-catching skill set, but Canha is thriving in one key area: his right-handed bat is pummeling left-handed pitching. In 276 plate appearances against fellow righties this year, Canha carries a tepid .218/.319/.328 slash. In 82 trips to the plate against lefties, however, Canha is hitting .299/.415/.478 (150 wRC+). Canha has had roughly even splits against lefties and righties in his career, with productive lines against both, but over the past couple seasons he’s begun to see a more conventional platoon split. In 248 plate appearances against southpaws dating back to last season, Canha boasts a .275/.379/.469 slash.

Canha still has about $4.2MM of this season’s salary yet to be paid out. That number will drop to $3.83MM by Tuesday’s deadline. A potential trade partner might not want to cover the full freight of that salary in exchange for a 35-year-old who could be used as a platoon option down the stretch, but if the Tigers cover some of the salary, it’s easy enough to see why contending clubs would want to add a productive righty who can play multiple spots on the diamond.

Canha isn’t going to fetch the Tigers a major prospect even if they pay him down to league minimum for his new club, but he’s still appealing in the right role. The Cardinals, Reds, Royals and Mariners are among the playoff hopefuls who have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. The Braves (Ronald Acuna Jr.), Astros (Kyle Tucker) and Padres (Fernando Tatis Jr.) all have star outfielders on the injured list (and Canha could also play some first base in Houston). The Phillies could pair Canha with Brandon Marsh in an outfield platoon. There ought to be several clubs with interest, and as a pending free agent on a team widely expected to sell, Canha has a good chance to move.

Astros Among Teams Interested In Isaac Paredes

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The Astros, looking to lengthen their lineup and get more production out of first base, are among the teams with interest in Rays infielder Isaac Paredes, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. As Rome explains, the bottom third of Houston’s lineup has produced a disastrous .254 OBP since Kyle Tucker went on the injured list 40 games ago, shortening the lineup and leaving a lot of pressure on the top of the batting order.

Paredes is a natural fit for the Astros, though between his affordable $3.4MM salary, his three additional years of club control, his defensive versatility and this year’s .250/.352/.445 slash, he’d fit on the majority of contenders around the league. Paredes has been Tampa Bay’s primary third baseman this season, but he has considerable experience at both second base and first base as well, and he’s even played 50 innings of shortstop in the majors. He’s probably not cut out for long-term shortstop work, but Statcast feels he’s been average or better at each of the three other infield spots.

Among the 148 qualified hitters in MLB this season, only one has a higher pull rate than Paredes: Houston’s own Jose Altuve. That pull-happy approach from a righty power bat like Paredes makes the Astros’ Minute Maid Park — and the short left field porch in the Crawford Boxes — a particularly interesting fit. Paredes popped 31 homers last season and has 16 so far in 2024.

The Astros have gotten virtually nothing out of first base this season. Jose Abreu was released in the second season of an ill-fated three-year contract. Jon Singleton has been the primary option since. He’s hitting .230/.321/.345 on the season. That’s seven percent worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, at a position where above-average offense is typically expected. Singleton also grades as a poor first base defender and poor baserunner.

Swapping Singleton out for Paredes and then pairing him with Tucker’s eventual return could have a transformative impact on the Houston lineup. The benefits of adding Paredes would be further reaching in the long-term, too. Alex Bregman is slated to become a free agent this offseason, and while the Astros figure to be part of his offseason market, he’s hardly a guarantee to re-sign. Keeping Bregman could require a longer and more lucrative contract than the ’Stros have given out to anyone under owner Jim Crane; Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal is the longest contract issued under Crane, while Altuve’s 2018 extension that guaranteed him $151MM in new money is the largest guarantee. If Bregman doesn’t stay in Houston, Paredes could shift across the diamond to third base in 2025.

For all the reasons just listed, however, Paredes will be extremely expensive to acquire — at least in terms of prospects/young talent. Any of the Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners and Red Sox (among others) stand as obvious fits and suitors for him. The market will be competitive. And, since Paredes is controllable through the 2027 season and should earn under $10MM next season in arbitration, the Rays likely don’t feel a need to move him. They’ll listen, as they do on all of their players, but it’ll take a genuinely compelling offer to pry three-plus years of one of the game’s most underrated infielders from their grasp.

That said, the Rays have sufficient infield depth to withstand the loss of Paredes. Third baseman Junior Caminero ranks as one of the sport’s top five prospects and is ready for a look in the majors. Caminero’s presence alone doesn’t make Paredes expendable — he could easily move to another infield position or just bounce between multiple slots on a regular basis — but having a ready-made replacement does make it a bit easier to move him than if the cupboard behind him were bare. Other, more expensive veterans on the Rays (e.g. Zach Eflin, Randy Arozarena) seem likelier to move between now and next Tuesday’s deadline, but Paredes should draw heavy interest in his own right and likely could be had with a substantial enough offer.

The Opener: Ray, NL Wild Card, Yelich, MLBTR Podcast

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With the trade deadline now just six days away, here are four things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Ray to make Giants debut:

Veteran left-hander Robbie Ray hasn’t pitched in more than 18 months after exiting the first start of his 2023 season with a flexor strain that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. At the time, he was a member of the Mariners, but over the winter Seattle swapped Ray to San Francisco in exchange for outfielder Mitch Haniger and righty Anthony DeSclafani. He’s continued his rehab with his new club since then, and all that work getting back to the mound will finally pay off today when Ray makes his first start in a Giants uniform against the Dodgers in L.A. in a game scheduled for 8:10pm local time.

Ray will be facing right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who is coming off the IL himself but sports a strong 3.47 ERA in 18 starts this year. The Giants will be hoping that Ray, the AL Cy Young award winner in 2021, will provide a boost and halt a potential three-game losing streak. San Francisco has dropped two straight and fallen near the back of a tight NL Wild Card chase. They now sit five games out, and five teams separate them from the Mets, who currently hold the final Wild Card spot. The Giants’ play over the next few days will be crucial with regard to their deadline approach. San Francisco will also need to make a 40-man roster move to activate Ray.

2. NL Wild Card scene and its impact on the trade deadline:

As just alluded to, the NL Wild Card hunt is at a critical juncture. The Cardinals and Mets hold the second and third spots at the moment, but each of the Padres, D-backs, Pirates, Cubs, Reds, Giants and Nationals are within 5.5 games. The Cubs and Nats both still plan to operate primarily as sellers, but the direction isn’t as clear for everyone else in the mix. A series of three to four straight losses for any of these clubs would have massive deadline ramifications. For some clubs, a decision may come even sooner. The Reds are already open to moving some of their veteran relievers even as they look to hang around in the race, but a loss today could drop them 5.5 games out of the postseason picture. Every game carries heightened significance right now, creating a mini-playoff effect and leading to ample scoreboard watching.

3. Yelich exits with injury:

Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich is in the midst of a resurgent season at the plate, sporting a career-best 18.4% strikeout rate and an excellent .315/.406/.504 slash line (156 wRC+) in 73 games this year. That’s been a huge part of Milwaukee’s success, but now it seems the club may need to go without its best hitter for some time after he exited yesterday’s win over the Cubs due to back tightness. According to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, manager Pat Murphy told reporters after the game that Yelich “could be” due for a trip to the injured list. Frustrating as the loss of Yelich would surely be, a silver lining for the Brewers would be the fact that the club is relatively flush in quality outfield options with Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, and Sal Frelick all seeing regular playing time at the moment and Blake Perkins currently in a bench role.

4. Check out today’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast!

This week’s installment of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is a particularly fun one, as host Darragh McDonald is joined by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco for a two-hour megapod during which they discuss the coming trade deadline. Discussed within are not only some of the league’s most obvious buyers (Yankees, Orioles) and sellers (Marlins, White Sox), but also some of the teams facing some tough decisions this summer like the Rays and Blue Jays. The episode is currently live on both Spotify and Apple Music, and will be posted here on the site later this morning!

Orioles Willing To Trade Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins

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The Orioles will be one of the most fascinating teams to watch ahead of the trade deadline. They currently boast a one-game lead over the Guardians for the best record in the American League and a 1.5-game lead over the Yankees for first place in the AL East. Thus, they fit the criteria for major buyers; the O’s are undeniably one of the best teams in baseball, but they still have things worth fighting for down the stretch. What’s more, prospect evaluators widely agree that Baltimore has one of the deepest and most talented farm systems in the game, in addition to a logjam of talented young players on the major league roster. They should be able to outbid just about anyone to land their ideal trade targets in the coming days.

Yet, precisely because of all that talent, the Orioles might also be sellers at the deadline. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, Baltimore is willing to discuss trades for Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins, a pair of veterans who have been with this team since it was one of the worst in baseball. It’s rare to see a team with World Series aspirations trade proven, cost-controlled players at the deadline, but the Orioles can afford to part with Mountcastle and Mullins without compromising anything. Indeed, they might get even stronger by clearing up room on a crowded roster.

It wasn’t so long ago that Mullins was one of Baltimore’s best players. He earned down-ballot MVP votes during a career year in 2021 and followed that up with a solid all-around season in 2022. However, his offensive and defensive numbers both took a turn for the worse in 2023, and that trend has continued into 2024, his age-29 season. Mullins is batting .214 with a 79 wRC+. Despite his perfect fielding percentage, he has put up just 1 OAA (he had six last year and nine the year before). In addition, his arm strength has fallen below average, according to Statcast. Just about the only area where Mullins has provided above-average production is on the bases. He has 16 steals and ranks among the top 15 AL players in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric (BsR).

It might seem far too soon for the Orioles to give up on a 29-year-old center fielder with MVP votes in his past, but given the sheer amount of talented outfielders at Baltimore’s disposal, the team can hardly afford to keep giving so much playing time to a player who is providing so little. Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad all deserve regular playing time, while Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby are a couple of promising options at Triple-A. There aren’t a ton of center fielders in that mix, but Cowser has played phenomenal defense in left this season; he could slide over to center and open up his corner spot for a bigger bat.

Mountcastle, 27, is having a perfectly serviceable season, with 12 home runs and a 109 wRC+. Those aren’t bad numbers, by any means, but contending teams generally have higher expectations at first base, and Mountcastle’s 111 wRC+ over the past four seasons doesn’t exactly suggest that better days are ahead. Thus, if Mountcastle is preventing players like Kjerstad, and eventually Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo, from getting regular playing time, he might be doing more harm than good for the Orioles.

Still, considering his consistently above-average offensive performance in all five seasons of his big league career, Mountcastle would be a welcome addition to plenty of contending teams. With All-Star first basemen Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Yandy Díaz unlikely to be dealt, Mountcastle, under team control through 2026, could be an interesting (and cheaper) alternative for a team in need of a right-handed bat. Meanwhile, Mullins could be an intriguing buy-low candidate for a team that thinks it can help him rediscover his All-Star form. He is not eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season.

The Orioles certainly don’t have to trade either Mountcastle or Mullins, and, perhaps they won’t unless GM Mike Elias receives an overwhelming offer. However, trading one or both of the veterans could allow the O’s to recoup some of the young talent they will part with in other deadline trades. While neither player will command a massive return, Baltimore might still prefer to swap them for prospects rather than continue to run them out in place of better options or, eventually, stash them on the bench.

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