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Padres Reportedly Expected To Keep Dylan Cease, Michael King

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12:01pm: President of baseball operations A.J. Preller was asked about the Cease rumors today. “He’s a very big part of our club,” Preller said, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. “The additions the last couple days supplement what’s a really good rotation. That’s our focus here going forward — having that strong rotation.”

10:30am: Rumors have swirled all winter about the Padres trading a starting pitcher such as Dylan Cease or Michael King. Yesterday, they added to the rotation by agreeing to a deal with Nick Pivetta. They made another modest rotation add today by signing lefty Kyle Hart. It would be fair to wonder if those signings were precursors to a trade but Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club is “inclined” to keep their starters and open the season with a rotation of Cease, King, Pivetta and Yu Darvish. That report came out before the Hart signing, though it seems unlikely that such a modest deal would impact the club’s plans for a headline-grabbing deal.

It’s a perfectly logical stance from a roster perspective. The rotation depth has appeared thin all winter. Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery in October, putting a big hole in the starting group. Cease, King and Darvish gave the club a decent three but the depth options all had question marks. Matt Waldron showed some potential in the first half of last year but had an 8.10 ERA in the second half. Guys like Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito had some passable ERAs last year but with middling strikeout rates.

The only reason a trade of Cease or King was even considered was the club’s financial situation. They had spent aggressively for several years but then they hit a wall in 2023. Their TV deal collapsed, putting a dent in revenue. There were plans to scale back spending going into 2024, even before Peter Seidler died, which has led to an ongoing ownership squabble.

The financial squeeze led the Padres to trade Juan Soto and Trent Grisham last offseason for a five-player package. Losing Soto certainly wasn’t ideal but it saved some money and helped add some pitching depth. This winter, the thought was that a similar trade might be necessary, with names like Cease, King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez thrown around as possible candidates. None of those players are as talented or expensive as Soto but the theoretical plan would be similar, to trade one good but pricey impending free agent for several lesser but cheaper and controllable players to patch several roster holes.

Lin’s report now suggests that isn’t likely to come to fruition. He does leave the door open a little bit, suggesting the Friars could be bowled over by an offer from another club, but it seems holding this rotation core is the mostly likely outcome. Assuming the club doesn’t pivot to a trade, they will go into camp with a strong front four and with Hart jumping into a competition for a back-end role alongside Waldron, Vásquez and others. Stephen Kolek is also going to be stretched out to potentially give some extra depth.

Perhaps the club never got a trade offer that they found particularly compelling or perhaps they simply decided to creatively dance around the payroll situation. Trading a starter to improve rotation depth was always going to be a difficult task, so perhaps they thought it better to just address their holes on a budget. In left field, it seems that a platoon of Jason Heyward and Connor Joe is the move. They each got a $1MM guarantee plus bonuses, so the Friars only committed $2MM there.

Elias Díaz got a $3.5MM guarantee to join Luis Campusano behind the plate, but even that modest guarantee was backloaded. Díaz will get a $1.5MM guarantee and then a $2MM buyout on a $7MM mutual option. The buyout won’t be due until the end of the season, so it allows the Padres to avoid more than half of that guarantee in the short term.

The Pivetta deal is also significantly backloaded. Though he’s guaranteed $55MM on his four-year deal, he’ll only get $4MM this year, in the form of a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary. The remaining $51MM will be paid out with salaries of $19MM, $14MM and $18MM in the three following seasons, with Pivetta able to opt out after the second and third seasons. Even King’s $7.75MM salary to avoid arbitration helped the club in the short term. That money breaks down as a $3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary and then a $3.75MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option. Hart’s deal only guarantees him $1.5MM, with $500K of that being a club option buyout.

Because of those creative maneuvers and some other backloaded deals, the Friars have a big gap between their actual payroll and competitive balance tax number. The latter is calculated via the average annual value of contracts, so a guy like Pivetta will have a $13.75MM CBT hit this year, even though he’ll make far less than that in 2025.

RosterResource currently pegs the Friars for a $259MM CBT number but an actual payroll of just $207MM. That payroll is still a big spike from last year but perhaps it’s manageable enough that the club doesn’t have to pivot to trading Cease or King. The CBT number will lead to some taxes, but they will be modest.

The Padres reset their tax status by ducking under the line last year, meaning they would be “first-time” payors if they pay in 2025. That means their base tax rate is 20% on overages. With their current projection, that would lead to a tax bill of just $3.6MM. That’s also not calculated until the end of the season. If things go poorly during 2025, they could flip Cease, King or other players at the deadline, thus lowering their tax bill or ducking under the line completely.

They could also cut down this year’s payroll in the short term in other ways, with Lin suggesting a trade of Suarez is more likely than one involving Cease. Suarez is making $26MM over the next three years, broken down as $10MM this year and $8MM in the final two seasons of his deal. However, he can opt out of his contract after 2025, which will complicate trade talks.

It’s hard to agree on fair trade value when opt-outs are involved. For an acquiring team, they know they will only get one year of Suarez if he performs well. He would only stick around for 2026 and 2027 if he pitches poorly or is hurt. The limited upside and significant downside generally makes clubs unwilling to give up significant talent for such an arrangement.

For clubs still looking for a frontline starter like Cease, they don’t really have other options at this stage of the winter. The free agent market does still have some guys available, such as Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Jakob Junis and others, but they are more mid-rotation or back-end options. Guys like Marcus Stroman and Jordan Montgomery are likely available in trade but they’re also mid-rotation guys at best and coming off difficult seasons.

Teams such as the Mets, Twins, Cubs and Orioles have been connected to Cease but they haven’t been able to get him thus far. Other clubs would be sensible fits. Unless they bowl over the Padres or the Friars are just posturing for leverage, those clubs might have to be patient. They could consider some of the aforementioned mid-rotation options or wait to see if the deadline offers the big rotation upgrade they seek.

Poll: Who’s The Best Starting Pitcher Remaining?

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The top remaining free agent starter came off the board last night, when right-hander Nick Pivetta agreed with the Padres on a backloaded four-year deal that includes opt-outs after the second and third seasons. It’s a major shift from last winter, when top-of-the-market lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery both lingered on the market deep into March and ultimately missed the start of the season while making up for lost Spring Training reps in the minor leagues. This winter, almost all of the top free agents have already landed somewhere as teams begin their first official workouts, with just five of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents of the offseason (and zero of the top 20) still unsigned.

Four of the five remaining free agents in our Top 50 are starting pitchers. None of them compare to Snell and Montgomery’s stature as free agents last winter, or even Pivetta’s stature as the last mid-market arm available in this year’s market. Even so, each is a clearly useful arm who would help the majority of pitching staffs around baseball this year if signed. Which one should pitching-hungry teams be most interested in, however? A look at all four, in the order they appear on the Top 50:

Andrew Heaney

Heaney is entering his age-34 campaign in 2025 in a different position than his previous trips through free agency. He signed with the Dodgers prior to the 2022 season as a bounce-back candidate coming off a disastrous 2021 campaign, and after delivering excellent results for L.A. in 72 2/3 innings he signed a fresh deal with the Rangers as a risky but high-upside mid-rotation addition. His performance over two years in Texas didn’t play to that high-risk, high-reward narrative that surrounded his free agency, however, as he performed as a fairly run-of-the-mill back of the rotation arm.

In 307 1/3 innings of work for Texas over the past two years, Heaney pitched to a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His 23.2% strikeout rate during that time is a far cry from not only the incredible 35.5% rate he flashed with the Dodgers, but also 26% clip he struck out opponents at from 2016 to 2021. Heaney has emerged from years of injury questions to serve as a fairly steady source of innings, with his 160 frames in 2024 being the most he’s posted in a season since 2018. There’s some room for upside in the veteran’s profile as well, with gains in walk rate (5.9%) and barrel rate (8.3%) last year suggesting he may be able to improve upon last year’s results.

Jose Quintana

Entering his age-36 season, Quintana has the most impressive resume of the pitchers discussed here. He’s a former All-Star who delivered front-of-the-rotation production at his peak with the White Sox. While those days are long behind him, he’s remained effective into his mid-30s. The southpaw signed with the Mets on the heels of a terrific 2022 with the Pirates and Cardinals where he posted a 2.93 ERA with a 2.99 FIP in 32 starts. The results in New York weren’t quite that good, but he was still capable of delivering solid mid- to back-of-the-rotation production in Queens with a 3.70 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.24 FIP in 246 innings of work.

Those results would be valuable in the No. 4 or 5 spot of most rotations, but a look under the hood reveals a somewhat more worrying profile. Quintana has struck out just 18.8% of opponents in each of the past two campaigns. His typically sharp command waned a bit in 2024, with an 8.8% walk rate that clocked in slightly north of average. That left him with the third-worst K-BB% among 58 qualified starters in the majors last year, ahead of only Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. On the other hand, his 47.4% groundball rate was tenth-best, and only six qualified starters allowed line drives at a lower clip. If he can continue those levels of contact management, it’s easy to imagine him having success in front of a strong defense.

Kyle Gibson

Gibson is the prototypical innings eater, a back-of-the-rotation arm who has posted an ERA below 4.00 just three times in his entire career who makes up for that with volume. Besides his half-season as a rookie back in 2013 and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Gibson has made at least 25 starts with at least 147 1/3 innings of work in every single season of his career. He’s averaged just over 30 starts and approximately 175 innings per season in those years. It’s a level of volume that’s hard to find in the the current era of pitching, and any team with instability in their rotation would stand to benefit from plugging Gibson into the mix.

However, Gibson’s status as one of the league’s more reliable arms comes with very limited upside. In 12 years as a big league pitcher, the right-hander has eclipsed 3.0 fWAR just once. He’s also begun to show some minor signs of decline that can’t be entirely ignored headed into his age-37 campaign; his 9.4% walk rate was elevated relative to his career norms, but more concerning was the 9.2% barrel rate he allowed that was tenth-worst among all qualified starters last year. Last year’s 13 quality starts were also the fewest he’s posted in a full season since 2019.

Spencer Turnbull

Turnbull stands out among this crowd of veterans as the youngest arm, entering his age-32 campaign this year. The righty also has by far the shortest track record of the four arms discussed here, with just 356 2/3 total innings in the majors under his belt across parts of six big league seasons. Once a promising young rotation prospect with the Tigers, Turnbull’s career was turned upside down by injuries. He hasn’t thrown more than 56 2/3 innings in a single season since 2019.

For all his lack of volume, Turnbull was excellent when healthy for the Phillies last year. He struck out 26.1% of opponents en route to a 2.65 ERA in a swing role, and while his 3.85 FIP and 3.67 SIERA are both less impressive they still paint him as a well above-average pitcher when healthy. Of all the pitchers listed here, Turnbull has the largest injury track record, but he’s also perhaps the best on a rate basis and the likeliest to deliver results that could put him in line for meaningful playoff innings.

__________________________________________________________

While the four pitchers discussed were the ones who made the cut for MLBTR’s Top 50 back in November, other interesting starters also remain available. Lance Lynn has flashed front-of-the-rotation production at points in his career and had a solid 3.84 ERA in 23 starts last year, but has also struggled badly at times and will pitch his age-38 season this year. Jakob Junis has pitched more out of the bullpen than the rotation in recent years but sports a strong 3.35 ERA in the past two seasons and started 17 games for the Giants in 2022. John Means is clearly quite talented but has only pitched 52 innings across the past three seasons due to multiple arm surgeries. He’ll be sidelined into the summer after UCL surgery last June.

Which of free agency’s remaining starters do MLBTR readers think is the best bet for success in 2025? Have your say in the poll below:

Who's the best starting pitcher still on the market?
Jose Quintana 37.74% (1,481 votes)
Spencer Turnbull 22.63% (888 votes)
Andrew Heaney 20.80% (816 votes)
Kyle Gibson 14.96% (587 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 3.87% (152 votes)
Total Votes: 3,924

Andre Pallante Wins Arbitration Hearing Versus Cardinals

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Right-hander Andre Pallante won his arbitration hearing against the Cardinals, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll be paid the $2.1MM sum he and his reps at Wasserman requested rather than the $1.925MM figure submitted by the team. Pallante was one of three Cardinals players to go to a hearing; the team won its hearing over utilityman Brendan Donovan and lost a hearing versus Lars Nootbaar. Both results were handed down yesterday.

Pallante, 26, worked his way into the St. Louis rotation last year and looks ticketed for a starting role again in 2025. The right-hander logged a 3.78 ERA with an 18.5% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and enormous 61.8% ground-ball rate in 121 1/3 innings over 29 appearances (20 starts). That 3.78 earned run average is a dead match for his career mark in what’s now a total of 297 1/3 innings.

This was Pallante’s first trip through arbitration. He’s picked up 2.145 years of big league service thus far, making him a Super Two player who’ll be arb-eligible four times rather than the standard three. The Cardinals can control him for four more years, all the way through 2028. He still has one minor league option remaining, though as long as he continues at the pace he’s established in his first three MLB seasons, that’s not going to come into play anytime soon.

Pallante figures to join Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz in the Cards’ Opening Day rotation — provided all are healthy. The Cardinals bought out 2025 club options on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn but otherwise haven’t made any changes in the rotation — or really to the broader roster at large — despite a stated goal of getting younger and focusing on player development this coming season.

With Pallante’s salary now set, the Cardinals’ payroll checks in just shy of $148MM, per RosterResource. That’s a reduction of about $35MM, all of which was accomplished by parting with Gibson and Lynn and letting Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton walk as free agents.

Padres Sign Kyle Hart

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The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve signed lefty Kyle Hart to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2026 season. He’ll be guaranteed $1.5MM, per FanSided’s Robert Murray, coming in the form of a $1MM salary and a $500K buyout on a $5MM club option for the 2026 season. He can boost the value of that option to $7.5MM based on escalators tied to games started. According to The Associated Press, the option price would climb by $250K if Hart reaches 18 starts this year, $500K at 22 starts, $750K at 26 starts, and $1MM if he starts 30 games. There’s also a $250K assignment bonus in the event that he’s traded, MLBTR has learned.

Hart, a client of NPG Sports, enjoyed a breakout showing in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2024 and has drawn big league interest throughout the winter. He’s the second starter the Friars have added in as many days, as San Diego also came to terms on a four-year, $55MM deal with Nick Pivetta last night.

Hart, who turned 32 in November, was torched for 19 runs in 11 innings with the 2020 Red Sox, his lone MLB experience to date. He has a fairly nondescript 4.36 ERA in 334 2/3 Triple-A frames as well, but a move overseas and some changes to his pitch repertoire unlocked new reason for optimism.

Brandishing a new sweeper, a heavier reliance on his changeup and using his four-seamer more at the top of the zone in South Korea, Hart broke out with a 2.69 earned run average over 26 starts for the KBO’s NC Dinos. He racked up 157 innings, fanned 28.8% of his opponents and issued walks at a 6% clip. That performance earned him the Choi Dong-won Award — the KBO equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award.

Hart now joins fellow newcomer Pivetta and holdovers Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish in San Diego’s rotation mix. He could have to compete with Matt Waldron, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez for that fifth spot behind the four established veterans, but Hart at the very least seems like the front-runner to land that job.

It’s always possible that a trade changes the calculus, but the minimal 2025 commitments to Hart ($1.5MM), Pivetta ($4MM), Jason Heyward ($1MM) and Connor Joe ($1MM) over the past week have addressed several needs at bargain prices — at least for this year. (Pivetta will earn $19MM in 2026, $14MM in 2027 and $18MM in 2028.) Both Cease and King have popped up on the rumor mill this winter — Cease in particular — but as of this morning the Padres are reportedly planning to hold onto both. That can be revisited at the deadline if the season doesn’t play out as hoped. For the time being, the recent slate of cost-effective pickups seems to have filled various needs within the (very) tight confines of the payroll limitations president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has been navigating throughout the winter.

The additions of Hart, Pivetta, Heyward and Joe over the past week have pushed San Diego’s payroll to a projected $207MM, per RosterResource. That’s an increase of nearly $40MM over last season’s end-of-year mark. The Friars have a projected $259MM worth of CBT obligations as well, placing them a hefty $18MM over the $241MM luxury threshold. However, since they reset their penalty level when they ducked under the tax line in 2024, they’ll be faced with only the minimum penalty: a 20% tax on their current overages. That’s about $3.6MM in penalties right now, and it’s possible trades of players other than Cease/King could yet reduce the bill. The Padres have been open to offers on reliever Robert Suarez, and they’d surely be open to offers on left-hander Wandy Peralta or infielder Jake Cronenworth, too, if it meant shedding a notable chunk of either player’s contract.

D-backs Sticking To Five-Man Rotation

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The Diamondbacks’ surprise signing of Corbin Burnes further crowded a rotation that had at least six starters in the mix. While there’s been talk of a possible six-man rotation in Arizona since that Burnes deal, manager Torey Lovullo said at D-backs camp this week that team is not considering that at this point (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).

That leaves the Diamondbacks with seven starters for five spots: Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Jordan Montgomery and Ryne Nelson. The first four are largely locked into place. Burnes and Gallen are Cy Young-caliber arms when healthy. Kelly has been a steady midrotation arm for the Snakes since signing out of the KBO in the 2018-19 offseason. Rodriguez’s first year in Arizona was marred by injury, but he’s signed three more years and has a lengthy track record.

Montgomery’s status in Arizona has been a talking point throughout the winter. The Diamondbacks signed him to a one-year, $25MM contract with a vesting $20MM player option for the 2025 season. The left-hander pitched enough to trigger that option but nowhere near well enough to decline it in favor of a return to the open market. Signing just days before Opening Day last season, Montgomery missed spring training, rushed through an accelerated ramp-up in Triple-A and never appeared to be himself. He pitched 117 innings but was rocked for a 6.23 earned run average with career-worst walk and strikeout rates.

D-backs owner Ken Kendrick called Montgomery’s performance out late in the season, publicly lamenting the role that he’d played in bringing the left-hander to his organization. “I brought it to (the front office’s) attention. I pushed for it,” Kendrick said in September. “They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan. … And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did.”

Pfaadt, 26, would give the D-backs an upside arm at the back of the staff. The former top prospect hasn’t yet found his stride over a full big league season but has shown glimpses of the potential that made him so well regarded. He looked to have found his stride last year, logging a 3.98 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate through his first 24 starts, but Pfaadt was hit hard in late August and for much of September. He mixed in one late-season gem — seven innings, one run, 12 strikeouts in Milwaukee — but even with that showing still posted an ERA north of 7.00 over his final eight starts. He finished the year at a 4.71 mark but did pile up 181 2/3 innings.

Nelson, who turned 27 in December, made 27 appearances this past season — 25 of them starts — and recorded 150 2/3 innings of 4.24 ERA ball. His 20% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging-strike rate were below average (well below, with regard to the latter), but Nelson’s 5.4% walk rate was outstanding.

There are other options on the 40-man roster, but they’re likely to be viewed as depth candidates, barring a spring breakout. Yilber Diaz, Cristian Mena, Tommy Henry and Blake Walston are all on the 40-man roster and have all made their big league debuts, but they’d likely only be called upon in the event of multiple injuries — at least with the current roster construction.

Kendrick’s comments on Montgomery led to plenty of speculation about a potential trade of this winter, but no such deal has come to fruition. It’s still possible the D-backs could find a taker for a portion of the contract or swap him out for a comparably priced veteran on an underwater deal (e.g. Rhys Hoskins, Starling Marte), but for now, Montgomery will get a full spring buildup and look to bounce back from a dismal 2024 season.

If the D-backs can find some kind of trade that sheds a portion of the Montgomery money, any savings could be reallocated to other needs. Most notably, they’ve been in the market for a closer throughout the winter but have yet to add an established ninth-inning arm. Arizona’s payroll is projected for a franchise-record $195MM, per RosterResource. It’s not clear whether Kendrick is willing to push things further after already ponying up to sign Burnes (six years, $210MM), acquire Josh Naylor in a trade (one year, $10.9MM) and re-sign Randal Grichuk (one year, $5MM). Barring the signing of a veteran like David Robertson or Kyle Finnegan, the D-backs will look inward and lean on A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez and Kevin Ginkel as their top late-inning arms.

Mets Re-Sign Drew Smith

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February 13: The Smith signing is official, per Joe DeMayo of SNY. Righty Christian Scott, who is also recovering from Tommy John surgery, was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move. Smith was himself then transferred to the 60-day IL as the corresponding move when the Pete Alonso signing became official.

February 12: The Mets will extend their relationship with their longest-tenured pitcher, as they’ve reportedly agreed to a one-year deal with right-hander Drew Smith, which contains a club option for the 2026 season. Smith, who’s rehabbing from Tommy John/internal brace surgery performed last July, will be paid $1MM in 2025. His club option is valued at $2MM. The MVP Sports client can boost those totals by way of some yet-unclear incentives.

Smith, 31, has pitched parts of six big league seasons with the Mets. He’s been a fixture in their late-inning mix over the past four years, logging a combined 3.35 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate in that time. Smith has worked plenty of high-leverage spots, recording 33 holds and five saves in 156 appearances while being credited with only four blown saves during that time.

The surgery for Smith was deflating in multiple aspects. It not only knocked him out of the team’s Grimace- and OMG-fueled postseason run, it also coincided with the run-up to his first trip into free agency. A healthy Smith would’ve been an easy candidate for a guaranteed multi-year deal at a decent annual rate. On top of that, it’s the second Tommy John procedure of his career. After a solid big league debut in 2018, he missed the 2019 campaign due to the same procedure.

Depending how long the rehab process takes this time around, Smith could at least potentially be a late-season and/or October option for the Mets. Should he make it back, he’d join a relief corps also featuring Edwin Diaz, A.J. Minter, Ryne Stanek, Reed Garrett and Jose Butto.

For now, once the deal is finalized, Smith will quickly be placed on the 60-day injured list. The Mets will technically need to open a spot for Smith before they can move him to the 60-day IL, but that can be accomplished by placing Christian Scott (also recovering from Tommy John surgery) on the 60-day IL. Smith could move to the 60-day himself once an additional spot is needed for another free agent signing, waiver claim, or the selection of a non-roster invitee to the 40-man roster later in camp.

With the Mets in the top tier of luxury penalization, the Smith reunion will actually cost them about $2.1MM overall (the $1MM salary plus a 110% tax). Those same taxes will apply to whatever incentives he unlocks this year (and next year, if the Mets are again in the top penalty tier in 2026). That’s a drop in the bucket for a club running a cash payroll north of $330MM and looking at roughly $110MM worth of taxes on top of that sum.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the agreement and structure. Jon Heyman of the New York Post added details on the guaranteed money and option value.

The Opener: Spring Training, Arenado, Free Agency

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After a busy day where the winter’s best remaining hitter and pitcher came off the board in free agency, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Pitchers and catchers continue reporting:

After today, all 30 clubs’ pitchers and catchers will have reported for their first official team workout. The Guardians, Rockies, Brewers, and Mariners in the Cactus League as well as the Grapefruit League’s Orioles, Astros, Twins, and Blue Jays are all set to kick things off today. Those teams all unlock access to the 60-day injured list today, meaning any of them with a player suffering a long-term injury will have more 40-man roster flexibility going forward. Team officials figure to be in camp answering questions from the media as well, and as always it’s possible that previously-unreported injuries could crop up as players trickle into camp.

2. What’s next for Arenado?

The trade market for Nolan Arenado has long appeared unlikely to develop until after top infield free agent Alex Bregman signed somewhere. He finally did so last night, however, agreeing to a three-year deal with the Red Sox worth $40MM annually before factoring in deferred money. That’s bad news for Arenado and the Cardinals, as Boston was widely expected to pivot toward Arenado in the event that they came up short in the Bregman bidding. The other failed suitors for Bregman seem to be unlikely destinations. Arenado already blocked a trade to the Astros. A trade between the Cardinals and their archrival Cubs is all but impossible to imagine, and it’s unclear if Arenado would be willing to waive his no-trade clause to approve a deal to the Tigers or the Blue Jays.

3. Lower levels of free agency moving:

While most of the attention was on the major deals signed by Bregman and Nick Pivetta yesterday, they were just two of the seven players who signed big league free agent deals yesterday. All corners of the market have begun to move, with relievers like right-hander John Brebbia, starters like righty Cal Quantrill, and position players like center fielder Michael A. Taylor all agreeing to deals. A number of noteworthy free agents still remain on the market, including Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo, Alex Verdugo, Paul DeJong, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, and David Robertson. Who will be the next one to land a contract?

MLB Mailbag: Yankees, Arenado, Adolis, Orioles, Red Sox, Bohm, Robert

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This week's mailbag gets into the Yankees and Nolan Arenado, whether Adolis Garcia will bounce back, the Orioles' position player surplus, possible Red Sox extensions, fits for Alec Bohm, a pair of hypothetical trade offers, and more.

Ralph asks:

Why are we seeing so many ideas for trades if the Yankees are so close to the threshold? If does not seem that anyone wants to take salary off of the Yankees, so how could they afford Bregman, Arenado or anyone else?

George asks:

The Yankees and Nolan Arenado seem like great fits for each other. Arenado at third would be an upgrade defensively, and he teams back up with Goldy. Jazz moves back to second. With Volpe at short, the infield should be sound defensively.

I know Mo turned down an Arenado for Stroman swap, but perhaps he might reconsider a trade involving Stroman as Spring Training arrives. The Cardinals were rumored to be interested in Clayton Beeter maybe a year or so ago. Also, they could use a right-handed bat.

Do see any pathway forward for a trade that satisfies the needs of both teams?

Daniel asks:

Will the Yankees eventually make a deal for Arenado and dump Stroman to the Cards?

The Yankees' competitive balance tax payroll sits around $305MM, according to RosterResource.  So they're already over the last threshold and will pay a 110% tax on every dollar added.  Back in May, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner famously said, "Look, I’m gonna be honest, payrolls at levels we’re at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially."  So while the Yankees had a CBT payroll of $316MM in 2024, it's fair to suggest they won't go much higher and might simply subtract.

It's worth keeping in mind that Stroman is not directly tied to Arenado.  The Yankees may simply eat, say, $10-12MM of the $18MM owed to him and enjoy the salary and tax savings.

We touched on this last week, but reporting this offseason has suggested the Yankees' interest in Arenado ranges from non-existent to modest.  Yesterday, Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote, "The New York Yankees have continued to check in on Arenado as well, league sources said, but payroll concerns from both organizations have made a trade unlikely at this point."

Arenado's situation seems more tied to Alex Bregman and the Red Sox than anything to do with the Yankees.  Regarding the financial aspect, two days ago, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote, "It’s become apparent how teams want the ticking clock to pressure the Cardinals into covering more salary than the $15 million-$20 million they have expected."

Before the Cardinals kick in a dime, Arenado's CBT hit is somewhere below $21.33MM per year, since A) the Rockies are paying $10MM of his remaining $74MM and B) $12MM is deferred without interest until 2032.  We can use $20MM as an estimate here.

There are two related complications with Arenado.  The first: how is he going to perform over the next three years?  Some projection systems say he'll stick right around 3 WAR in 2025.  On the other end, the aforementioned The Bat X puts him at 1.4 WAR.  Wherever you project for '25, Arenado's age-34 season, you'd factor in further decline for his age-35 and 36 campaigns.

In his recent chat, Derrick Goold wrote, "[The Yankees] want to take on the player but have the Cardinals take on the financial risk that Arenado would repeat this past year. That way it was all upside for the Yankees with the 'value' of Arenado's performance. They would be on the hook for what they considered the cost of him producing like he did in 2024, and the Cardinals would cover the rest."

I'd love to sit down with Brian Cashman and unpack that, because Arenado was worth 2.5 WAR per Baseball-Reference and 3.1 WAR per FanGraphs.  Looking at various free agent position players who signed for one year, such as Gleyber Torres, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, and Max Kepler, the market has paid these types roughly $5-9MM per projected WAR.

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Tigers Made Six-Year Offer To Bregman

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Alex Bregman is headed to Boston on a three-year deal that comes with a massive $40MM average annual value (albeit with deferrals). The two-time All-Star was also known to have multiple six-year offers on the table, one of which was from the Astros.

The Tigers also proposed a six-year offer, as first reported by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. Petzold initially reported that Detroit’s offer was for narrowly above $170MM and included an opt-out clause after the second season. It had some amount of deferred money. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale specified it as a $171.5MM offer.

Detroit’s offer came with an approximate $28.58MM average annual value, before accounting for deferrals. Bregman obviously fared much better on an annual basis on the agreement with Boston. It seems as if Detroit offered the highest overall guarantee. The Astros had a six-year, $156MM offer on the table for most of the winter. While they reportedly bumped that towards the end of the process, they didn’t seem optimistic about getting a deal done.

Indeed, it doesn’t seem that Houston was even in the running by the end. Nightengale reports that the Cubs, Tigers and Red Sox were the finalists. As with Boston, Chicago only seemed interested on a short-term deal. However, they weren’t willing to match the Sox’s offer on an annual basis. Nightengale reports that the Cubs proposed a four-year, $120MM deal. According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, that would have included opt-outs after the second and third seasons.

The Tigers and Cubs would each have kept Bregman at his traditional third base position. They’re likely to turn the hot corner to young players with top prospect pedigree but little to no MLB experience (Jace Jung and Matt Shaw, respectively). Bregman is ticketed for second base work in Boston, where Rafael Devers will stick at the hot corner.

Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech Behind Schedule

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Dodgers right-hander Evan Phillips missed the World Series last year due to shoulder troubles, but the full scope of his injury was never made clear until camp opened this week. Phillips tells the Dodgers beat that he was diagnosed with a small tear of a tendon in his rotator cuff during the 2024 postseason (link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). The tear was not significant enough for doctors to recommend surgery, but Phillips received a cortisone injection and was shelved while his teammates closed out the postseason with a World Series win over the Yankees.

Even with the lack of surgery, Phillips could be IL-bound to begin the season, Plunkett writes. A follow-up MRI in December revealed significant healing but still some damage. Phillips has been limited in his offseason throwing program but said yesterday that he hopes to be on a mound “soon.”

The 30-year-old Phillips is a key member of the Dodgers’ late-inning relief corps when healthy. He picked up 18 saves in 2024 and another 24 saves the year prior. During his three full seasons as a Dodger, the former Braves, Orioles and Rays castoff has posted a 2.21 ERA with a big 29.6% strikeout rate against a tidy 6.5% walk rate. Phillips has saved 44 games overall and also been credited with 34 holds. He’s earning $6.1MM this year in his penultimate season of club control before reaching free agency in the 2026-27 offseason.

There’s a similarly murky update on fellow late-inning righty Michael Kopech. The Dodgers quickly moved to downplay a report that their deadline bullpen acquisition from last summer would miss a month to begin the season. GM Brandon Gomes at the time said that the team hadn’t seen “anything of concern yet” with regard to Kopech’s reportedly ailing forearm. To be fair to the team, there’s still no firm indication Kopech will be out a month, but manager Dave Roberts today conceded that Kopech, like Phillips, is “a little behind schedule” and is not a lock to be on the Opening Day roster (via The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya).

Like Phillips, Kopech played a key role in the Dodger bullpen after struggling with another organization. He posted a lackluster 4.73 ERA with the White Sox despite a huge 30.9% strikeout rate. Command was an issue with the South Siders, evidenced by a 12.6% walk rate, but a pitcher with Kopech’s raw stuff and former prospect pedigree seemed like he should fare better than he was with the ChiSox.

His fortunes indeed turned almost immediately after the trade. Kopech posted a microscopic 1.13 earned run average in 24 innings with Los Angeles. His 33% strikeout rate was a slight improvement, as was his 11.4% walk rate, but that walk rate was still about three percentage points higher than average. Kopech enjoyed a significant uptick in his opponents’ swinging-strike rate and chase rate, however, which adds some legitimacy to the improvement. He’s not going to sustain the ridiculous .167 average on balls in play or 91% strand rate he enjoyed with the Dodgers, but Kopech’s power arsenal and bat-missing abilities should make him a key arm for Roberts in the right-hander’s final season before free agency — assuming this forearm issue indeed proves minor.

The Dodgers, of course, made several meaningful splashes in the bullpen this winter, which will help to offset any missed time for Phillips and Kopech. In addition to re-signing Blake Treinen on a two-year deal, they gave out the largest contract for any reliever this winter when signing Tanner Scott on a four-year, $72MM deal. That pair will be joined by right-hander Kirby Yates, who inked a one-year, $13MM pact.

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