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MLB Mailbag: Flaherty, Nationals, Sasaki, Pirates, Giants, Twins

By Tim Dierkes | January 22, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag covers how free agent righty Jack Flaherty might approach his current situation, whether Alex Bregman makes sense for the Nationals, accusations of the Dodgers having a predetermined deal for Roki Sasaki, low-cost right field options for the Pirates, how the Giants could fit in a bat, a comparison of Jordan Montgomery, Taijuan Walker, and Marcus Stroman, why the Twins collapsed, and much more.

Lance asks:

It's somewhat surprising to see Jack Flaherty kind of iced out, up to this point, in free agency given the urgency and value placed on quality starting pitching. Would he be in line for a 'better' contract if he opted for a long-term (5-yr) contract at a lower AAV than expected/preferred versus opting for a short-term contract that could see him saddled with a Qualifying Offer next offseason?

I'm seeing a bit of a Carlos Rodon parallel here.  Rodon had an awesome breakout 2021 with the White Sox and hit the market without a qualifying offer, but with a dubious health track record.  So he took two years and $44MM from the Giants with an opt-out, had an even better season, got the QO, and still landed a $162MM deal.

Rodon's Giants contract came after the lockout, and that was an unorthodox winter for all free agents.  But he was only 29 at the time, and I imagine he had lower-AAV longer-term offers like you mentioned for Flaherty.  If so, he made himself a lot of money by not taking that type of deal.

That worked out so well for Rodon because he dominated in 2022.  Flaherty would need to stay healthy and pitch well in 2025 to get the $100MM+ deal he's likely seeking.  He doesn't turn 30 until October, so he's in a good position to take a short-term deal (with opt-outs if it's multiyear) and go back to the market even with the QO.  If he really wanted to be strategic, he could sign with a team that is likely to trade him at the deadline, and dodge the QO again.  If Flaherty's 2025 is decent but not great, he could also consider accepting a QO.

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MLBTR Podcast: Debating A Salary Cap, How To Improve Parity, More Dodgers Moves, And Anthony Santander

By Darragh McDonald | January 22, 2025 at 11:58pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR’s poll asking whether fans want an MLB salary cap (0:30)
  • What does parity mean? (5:25)
  • Trying to assess where things stand for the next round of CBA talks (11:20)
  • How much would a salary cap actually improve parity and what other paths are there? (17:40)
  • What is the mentality of the players right now? (24:50)
  • How baseball is not like the other major sports (28:35)
  • The Dodgers trio of recent pitching additions: Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates (31:55)
  • The Blue Jays signing Anthony Santander (40:30)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation – listen here
  • Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions – listen here
  • Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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The Angels Should Be Positioned For A Late-Offseason Acquisition

By Anthony Franco | January 22, 2025 at 11:57pm CDT

The Angels were aggressive within the opening weeks of the offseason. They acquired Jorge Soler as soon as the trade market reopened. They made the first MLB free agent acquisition of the winter when they added Kyle Hendricks. They signed Travis d'Arnaud and Yusei Kikuchi to multi-year contracts before any other team signed anyone from outside the organization for multiple years.

They've been virtually silent since then. They haven't signed a major league contract since finalizing the Kikuchi deal on November 27. Their only trade pickups since they landed Soler are utilityman Scott Kingery and depth catcher Chuckie Robinson. After identifying a few priority targets, they've taken their foot off the gas.

That isn't because the roster is complete. Soler, d'Arnaud, and Kikuchi are upgrades, but the Halos had a lot more to fix if they're serious about battling for a Wild Card spot. With a handful of high-profile free agents potentially stretching into February unsigned, the Halos should be positioned to bookend their winter with another strike or two.

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Tyler Matzek To Throw For Interested Teams

By Anthony Franco | January 22, 2025 at 11:24pm CDT

Free agent reliever Tyler Matzek will hold a showcase for scouts on Thursday in Irvine, reports Jon Morosi of the MLB Network. The southpaw is looking to demonstrate his health after being limited to 11 major league appearances last season.

None of those came after May 4. Matzek began the year in the Braves’ bullpen. Opponents tagged him for 11 runs over 10 innings. Atlanta placed him on the injured list with elbow inflammation during the first week of May. Matzek remained on the shelf for more than three months. Atlanta dealt him to the Giants as a salary offset in the Jorge Soler deadline acquisition.

San Francisco released Matzek rather than plug him into the MLB bullpen when he was healthy. Atlanta circled back to re-sign the 34-year-old lefty to a minor league deal. Matzek pitched four times with Triple-A Gwinnett and didn’t earn a call up. He qualified for minor league free agency at season’s end.

Elbow issues have derailed Matzek in consecutive seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery during Atlanta’s postseason run in 2022. That cost him the entire ’23 campaign. Between his age and the injuries, he’ll likely be limited to minor league offers. If Matzek’s stuff looks sharp in his showcase, he should find interest from teams as a depth option. He had a strong three-year run with Atlanta between 2020-22. Matzek combined for a 2.92 earned run average while striking out more than 27% of batters faced in 135 2/3 innings over that stretch.

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Twins, Padres Have Discussed Christian Vazquez Trade

By Anthony Franco | January 22, 2025 at 10:23pm CDT

The Padres and Twins have had discussions about a potential trade that would send veteran catcher Christian Vázquez to San Diego, report Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin of The Athletic. There’s no indication that a deal is imminent. Indeed, Hayes suggests that conversations have “slowed” recently, though that doesn’t mean that the sides won’t continue talks in the coming days.

Vázquez is both a logical trade candidate for Minnesota and an obvious fit for San Diego. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said last week that the team’s trade talks had started to pick up steam. While Falvey didn’t identify specific players under discussion, Vázquez is arguably the most obvious candidate. He’s entering the final season of a three-year free agent deal. He has split time with Ryan Jeffers over his two years in the Twin Cities.

Over the past two seasons, Jeffers carries a .246/.328/.456 batting line in exactly 800 trips to the plate. Vázquez has hit .222/.265/.322 through 670 plate appearances. Manager Rocco Baldelli nevertheless stuck to the even divide in playing time last year. Each player made 81 starts. Jeffers caught 720 1/3 innings, while Vázquez logged 719 frames.

Jeffers clearly brings a much higher offensive ceiling. Vázquez is the superior defender. While Jeffers receives subpar grades for his receiving skills, Vázquez has long been a quality pitch framer. He was also a superior blocker. Last year, Vázquez was charged with just one passed ball and was behind the plate for 19 wild pitches. Jeffers committed three passed balls and allowed 28 wild pitches.

Despite Vázquez’s defensive advantage, the Twins may prefer to give Jeffers an extra 15-20 starts to keep his bat in the lineup. That’s particularly true when considering the financials. Vázquez’s deal pays him $10MM annually. That’s a lot for a part-time catcher. Minnesota’s front office has been hamstrung by the budget for a second straight offseason. The Pohlad family ownership group has been loath to raise payroll as they explore a sale of the franchise. Minnesota has not made a single major league free agent signing this winter. Their biggest moves have been depth trades for Mickey Gasper and former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya.

The Padres are in a remarkably similar spot. While ownership isn’t selling the franchise, there’s litigation amongst the Seidler family for control. San Diego has slashed payroll for two straight years themselves. They also have not signed any major league free agents or made any trades of consequence.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has his work cut out for him in addressing multiple areas of need with a limited budget. Catcher is probably the biggest issue on the position player side. San Diego hoped that Luis Campusano would run with the job in 2024. Instead, he hit .227/.287/.361 while grading as one of the league’s worst defensive catchers.

Campusano ceded the starting job to Kyle Higashioka down the stretch. Higashioka landed with the Rangers on a two-year free agent deal, leaving Campusano as the default projected starter. Brett Sullivan is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. San Diego recently added Martín Maldonado on a minor league contract. He hit .119 in 48 games for the White Sox last season. Chicago released him in July.

The 34-year-old Vázquez would provide a significant defensive upgrade over Campusano. While he hasn’t produced at the plate in Minnesota, he was a league average hitter (.274/.315/.399) between the Red Sox and Astros back in 2022. There’s more hope for getting something offensively from Vázquez than there would be if they select Maldonado’s contract.

San Diego would not take on Vázquez’s entire salary. He’s comparable to Jacob Stallings ($2.5MM) and Austin Hedges ($4MM), each of whom signed cheap one-year deals as free agents this offseason. The Padres could push for Minnesota to eat at least half the money to facilitate a trade. Hayes and Lin write that the Twins are reluctant to pay down too much of the deal. Their primary motivation of trading Vázquez would be salary relief. They’d also perhaps need to earmark a couple million dollars for a veteran to back up Jeffers (e.g. Elias Díaz, Yasmani Grandal). The other catchers on their 40-man roster — Cartaya and Jair Camargo — have five combined games of MLB experience.

Minnesota is looking for a first baseman who can replace Carlos Santana. They’re seeking a right-handed hitting outfielder as well. Beyond Vázquez, Chris Paddack ($7.5MM) stands as their clearest trade candidate to create a bit of payroll room. To be clear, there’s no suggestion that the Padres have interest in reacquiring Paddack. Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo and Ty France are among the unsigned first basemen. Mark Canha, Austin Hays and Randal Grichuk are a few righty-swinging outfielders still on the open market.

In addition to their catching pursuit, San Diego needs back-end rotation help and a replacement for Jurickson Profar in left field. They’re unlikely to achieve all of that without shedding salary in a trade of their own. Dylan Cease is their biggest trade chip. He’ll make $13.75MM in his final year of arbitration. Dealing him would be a huge hit to an already thin rotation, but they’d net MLB help in return while creating a decent chunk of short-term payroll space.

The Athletic reports that the Twins are among a number of teams that have shown interest in Cease. Vázquez obviously would not be a key piece in a trade of that magnitude, though he could be included as an ancillary part of a much larger package. As a comparison, Higashioka was probably viewed as the fifth-most valuable player in San Diego’s return from the Yankees for Juan Soto at the time of that trade.

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Minnesota Twins Newsstand San Diego Padres Christian Vazquez Dylan Cease

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Reds Remain In Talks With Carlos Estevez

By Anthony Franco | January 22, 2025 at 8:47pm CDT

The Reds remain in conversation with Carlos Estévez, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman first reported earlier this month that Cincinnati had interest in the veteran reliever.

More broadly, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports that Estévez’s market has picked up this week. While there’s nothing to suggest a deal is imminent, a few teams that have been frustrated with the asking prices on free agent hitters have turned their attention to the bullpen. The relief group lagged the hitting and starting pitching markets for most of the offseason, but that has changed the past two weeks. Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, José Leclerc, Tanner Scott and Paul Sewald have all agreed to terms this month. Kirby Yates is reportedly closing in on a deal with the Dodgers, as well.

Estévez is probably the top unsigned reliever. The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. He turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.

Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

Cincinnati had a decent relief group in 2024. They ranked 18th in earned run average despite the difficulty of pitching at Great American Ball Park. Reds relievers ranked ninth with a 24.3% strikeout rate. They subtracted one of their top strikeout arms when they dealt Fernando Cruz to the Yankees for backup catcher Jose Trevino. A full season from breakout candidate Tony Santillan could be a major boost in front of closer Alexis Díaz. Veterans Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter are back, as is lefty Sam Moll.

The biggest question is whether the Reds have the payroll space to meet Estévez’s asking price. That seemed unlikely a few weeks ago, as general manager Nick Krall said the team wasn’t working with a ton of financial margin. However, the Reds have subsequently finalized a new television contract to stay on the FanDuel Sports Networks for the 2025 season. Krall said that the TV deal allows the front office to “work a little bit more (than before) in both the free agency and the trade market.” RosterResource calculates the Reds’ player payroll around $106MM, approximately $6MM above where they ended last season.

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Cincinnati Reds Carlos Estevez

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Cubs Sign Jon Berti

By Anthony Franco | January 22, 2025 at 8:26pm CDT

The Cubs are in agreement with infielder Jon Berti, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a one-year, $2MM guarantee that includes another $1.3MM in performance bonuses, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Berti is a client of Ball Players Agency.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said last week that the front office was looking to upgrade the bench. A multi-positional infielder seemed the likeliest target. Chicago has already added Carson Kelly as a backup catcher and has a strong outfield. Their infield was much less settled after they included Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker trade.

Berti, who turns 35 today, is a sensible depth pickup. He’s a good athlete who has ample experience at each of second base, third base and shortstop. He has decent defensive grades at all three spots. Berti topped 100 games for the Marlins in both the 2022 and ’23 seasons. He combined for a .268/.334/.373 batting line with solid strikeout and walk rates. While he has minimal power, he’s an excellent runner. Berti stole 41 bases in 46 attempts back in 2022 and continues to grade highly for his overall baserunning acumen.

The Yankees acquired the righty-hitting infielder from Miami just before last season got underway. Berti would have had an opportunity to push DJ LeMahieu for the third base job had he stayed healthy. That wasn’t to be, as he landed on the injured list with respective groin and calf problems early in the year. The latter — a significant strain of his left calf — shelved him between May and September. Berti was limited to 25 regular season appearances and played four times during New York’s run to the AL pennant. He hit .273 with one extra-base knock (a homer) in 74 plate appearances.

Berti finished the season just shy of six years of big league service. New York could’ve kept him for his final year of arbitration eligibility. They opted not to tender him a contract, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected around $3.8MM. He falls shy of that number as a free agent but secures a guaranteed deal and an MLB roster spot. As a player with over five years of service time, he can’t be sent to the minors without his consent. He’ll be on Chicago’s big league team.

It will likely be in a bench role. Dansby Swanson is locked in at shortstop. Nico Hoerner will play second base once he’s healthy. Hoerner is rehabbing from flexor surgery and might start the season on the injured list. That’d leave Berti as the favorite to handle the keystone. Prospect Matt Shaw is expected to get everyday run at third base. He’s coming off a monster year in the upper minors (.284/.379/.488 with 21 homers between Double-A and Triple-A). Shaw has significant offensive upside, but plenty of top prospects have struggled in their first look at major league pitching.

Berti offers insurance for Hoerner’s injury and adds a high-floor fallback at third base if Shaw doesn’t hit the ground running. The acquisition is likely to push at least one of Vidal Bruján or Gage Workman off the roster. Workman is a Rule 5 pick, while Bruján is a former top prospect whom the Cubs acquired from Miami last month. Bruján is out of options and cannot be sent down without clearing waivers. It’s highly unlikely that the Cubs carry each of Berti, Bruján and Workman on the Opening Day roster, especially if Hoerner is healthy.

Berti’s modest base salary pushes the Cubs’ luxury tax number to roughly $200MM, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re still more than $40MM below the tax line and should have ample space for another acquisition. Hoyer has called the bullpen a priority and they’ve been tied to a number of high-leverage relievers on the trade and free agent fronts.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

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Chicago Cubs Transactions Jon Berti

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Michael Kopech Has Begun Offseason Throwing Program

By Anthony Franco | January 22, 2025 at 7:11pm CDT

January 22: Los Angeles general manager Brandon Gomes downplayed the situation this evening. Gomes said that Kopech is amidst his offseason throwing program and said he “(doesn’t) think there’s anything of concern at this point” with their potential closer (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

January 21: The Dodgers are seemingly on the verge of adding two high-leverage bullpen pieces. After agreeing to terms on a four-year deal with Tanner Scott over the weekend, Los Angeles reportedly has a tentative agreement in place to sign All-Star righty Kirby Yates.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who was first to report that the Dodgers and Yates were closing in on a deal, linked the expected addition to the health status of Michael Kopech. There hadn’t been any prior indication that Kopech was facing a potential injury absence. Nightengale reports that the hard-throwing righty has been battling forearm inflammation. He has not been diagnosed with any structural damage, though Nightengale indicates that the Dodgers will take a cautious approach early in the season.

Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that Kopech pitched through what was seemingly a minor forearm issue during last fall’s World Series run. Acquired from the White Sox in a three-team deadline deal, Kopech had a brilliant first few months in Los Angeles. He fired 24 innings down the stretch and posted a 1.13 earned run average. He struck out 33% of opposing hitters while generating swinging strikes on a fantastic 15.8% of his offerings.

Kopech’s playoff performance was a little more shaky. While he only allowed three runs in nine postseason innings, he issued seven free passes while striking out 10 batters. Kopech didn’t lose any life on his 98-99 MPH fastball, though, so that dip was probably more about small sample variance than a reflection that he was significantly hampered physically. His command has never been pristine.

For now, the forearm inflammation seems to be something worth monitoring rather than a huge concern. Nightengale suggests that Kopech could begin the season on the injured list, but no one from the team has publicly stated that’ll be the case. Even if he does miss a few weeks early in the year, the Dodgers have plenty of talent to weather his absence.

The Dodgers could have four or five potential closers. Scott closed for the Marlins for a few seasons before moving into a setup capacity with the Padres after a deadline trade. Evan Phillips had been L.A.’s primary closer for over a year before the Kopech acquisition. Phillips battled shoulder issues late in the season and wasn’t able to go in the World Series. The Dodgers brought back high-leverage arm Blake Treinen on a two-year contract early in the offseason. If they finalize the Yates deal, he could be the favorite for the ninth after saving 33 games for the Rangers. Skipper Dave Roberts will have plenty of high-octane arms he can juggle even if Kopech begins the year on the shelf.

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Cubs, Reese McGuire Agree To Minor League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | January 22, 2025 at 5:30pm CDT

The Cubs and catcher Reese McGuire have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. The Apex Baseball client will presumably receive an invite to major league spring training as well.

McGuire, 30, has appeared in the past seven big league seasons as a part-time catcher. Spending time with the Blue Jays, White Sox and Red Sox, he has appeared in 355 games and stepped to the plate 1,038 times. He has a .252/.300/.364 batting line in that time, which translates to a wRC+ of 80.

Though that puts him 20% below the league average hitter, it’s actually not terrible production for his position, since catchers usually produce about 10% less than par. Unfortunately, the last two years have seen him slide down a bit. With the Red Sox over 2023 and 2024, he slashed .242/.297/.331 for a wRC+ of 70.

Defensively, he’s generally gotten good marks. Outlets like Baseball Prospectus and Statcast consider him to have been a strong framer, while his blocking and work with the running game have been close to average.

When the offense was a bit stronger, McGuire was a useful player. FanGraphs considered him to have been worth least 1.2 wins above replacement in each full season from 2019 to 2022. But as his bat dropped off over the past two years, his value slid along with it. Boston outrighted him off their roster in August and McGuire became a free agent at season’s end.

The Cubs only have two catchers on their 40-man roster now in Miguel Amaya and Carson Kelly. Prospect Moisés Ballesteros should be pushing his way into the mix eventually but he’s only 21 years old and has only 68 Triple-A games under his belt, so perhaps he’ll spend a bit more time in the minors. McGuire will give the club a bit of extra depth without taking up a roster spot for now. If he gets added at any point, he is out of options but his service clock is just below the five-year line, meaning it’s theoretically possible for him to be retained via arbitration for 2026 if he has a roster spot at season’s end.

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Athletics Hire Dave Stewart As Special Assistant

By Darragh McDonald | January 22, 2025 at 4:45pm CDT

The Athletics announced that former big leaguer Dave Stewart has been hired as a special assistant to player development for the 2025 season. The announcement didn’t provide much detail on Stewart’s exact role but he’ll reconnect with the franchise he’s been most associated with over the years.

Now 67, Stewart pitched in the big leagues from 1978 to 1995. His best seasons were spent in Oakland. From 1987 to 1992, he made 212 starts for the A’s, allowing 3.56 earned runs per nine. That stretch included a World Series victory for the club in 1989, with Stewart being named MVP of the series. He threw a complete game shutout in game one against the Giants. An earthquake led to a 10-day delay in the series, which allowed Stewart to also start game three, surrendering three earned runs in seven innings. The A’s finished the sweep the next day.

Stewart would go on to join the Blue Jays for the 1993 and 1994 seasons, winning another World Series in the first of those campaigns with Toronto. He returned to the A’s in 1995, in what would eventually turn out to be his final season as a player.

He then moved into his post-playing days with the A’s. He served as assistant to general manager Sandy Alderson in 1996, though he bounced around after that, working in various roles for all kinds of employers. He took front office and/or coaching roles with the Padres, Jays and Brewers. He founded the Sports Management Partners agency. He was hired by the Diamondbacks to be general manager and held that job for about two years, from September of 2014 to October of 2016.

As of a few years ago, Stewart was part of a group that was trying to get an expansion MLB franchise in Nashville. A few months ago, it was reported that he was no longer a part of that group, but that a different group he was leading was trying to buy the White Sox.

It’s unclear what stage those ownerships pursuits are at right now, but it seems Stewart will circle back to the A’s. The franchise is now in an interim period, as they plan to play in West Sacramento for the next three seasons as they build a new stadium in Las Vegas to be their new permanent home. During this period of upheaval for the franchise, as they move on from one fanbase and look to build a new one from scratch, Stewart will come back as a familiar face and presumably impart some wisdom on the club’s younger players.

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