The Astros’ chances of retaining Alex Bregman seemingly went up in smoke when he declined their reported six-year, $156MM offer earlier this winter. Houston pivoted quickly, first trying to engineer a trade for Nolan Arenado, which the current Cardinals third baseman nixed by way of his no-trade clause. The ’Stros pivoted again, signing first baseman Christian Walker for three years and $60MM. In doing so, they pushed Isaac Paredes — acquired from the Cubs as part of the Kyle Tucker return — across the diamond to third base. Or, so it seemed.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Astros are still “keeping the door ajar” for Bregman. It’s a long-shot pairing in light of the new-look corner infield in Houston, but the team has at least considered a scenario where they’d move Paredes to second base and play Jose Altuve in left field, should Bregman ultimately return. It’s an out-of-the-box solution, but the Astros have been (unsuccessfully) hunting for outfielders in free agency and trade. Nightengale adds that the Astros “aren’t optimistic” about their chances, however, adding that Bregman presently has at least two serious offers in hand.
Beyond the roster considerations, there’s the financial aspect to consider. Owner Jim Crane has publicly stated that he has the “wherewithal” to match last year’s $244MM payroll and $262MM worth of luxury obligations, though the team’s actions this winter have suggested otherwise, to an extent. Houston traded its best player, Tucker, to the Cubs in exchange for Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect/2024 first-rounder Cam Smith. They’ve also reportedly been shopping Ryan Pressly, who’s owed $14MM but has full no-trade protection.
That said, Crane suggested when making his comments about 2025 spending that the extent to which the club did or not spend would depend on the specific players available to them. Pushing to a $260MM CBT number again for a free agent who’d be new to the organization and doing so for a longtime cornerstone player whose entire career has been spent with the ’Stros are quite different. One trait Bregman has drawn consistent praise for both from the Astros and in reports citing anonymous coaches and executives around the league is his fiery leadership and clubhouse demeanor. The Astros are more familiar with that than any team, and logic dictates that they’d likely be most willing to pay a premium for it. Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros aout $3MM north of the $241MM luxury barrier. Signing Bregman would put them over with minimal chance of ducking back underneath.
A move to the outfield for Altuve would register as a major surprise, but it’s not exactly hard to see why Houston might ponder it. Altuve’s defensive grades have cratered in the decade since he won his lone career Gold Glove. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 in both of the past two seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average had him at -8 this past season. Altuve made only five errors on the season, but that seems largely due to his inability to get to balls he might’ve had a play on several years ago; Statcast graded Altuve’s range in just the third percentile this past season. His arm strength was similarly panned, landing in the seventh percentile.
There are other alignments that could be considered. The Red Sox, among other teams, have been rumored to view Bregman as a second base option. (Skipper Alex Cora recently spoke on the record about his belief that Bregman could be a plus defender there.) Houston could also leave Bregman and Altuve at their customary spots and move Paredes to left field. However, he’s notably slower than Altuve and has below-average arm strength himself. Altuve still has nearly average speed, and Houston’s left field is smaller than most thanks to the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. The Astros have reportedly been in the market for corner outfield upgrades but have not yet found a deal to their liking.
Bregman has reportedly drawn interest from the Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays and to a lesser extent the Cubs, although Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently indicated he feels next year’s third baseman is “likely” already in the organization. At least to this point, Bregman hasn’t been open to the sort of short-term pacts to which many top free agents acquiesce late in the winter. As of this writing, it’s not clear whether Bregman has received any long-term offers other than the original six-year proposal from Houston. The Tigers have been cast as perhaps the other top landing spot, but talks between the two sides reportedly reached a “standstill” this week.
