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International Notes: Vargas, Ona, Twins

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As we await the outcome of the Twins’ negotiations with Korean slugger Byung-ho Park and the posting of fellow Korean All-Star Ah-seop Son, let’s take a look at some other news pertaining to the international market:

  • Another exciting young Cuban player could soon be on his way to a major league organization, according to a report from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. 16-year-old infielder Miguel Vargas — the son of former Cuban star Lazaro Vargas — has defected from the island with his father. (The elder Vargas is no minor figure in the country: he played on two gold medal-winning teams and was the manager and director of the Havana Industriales.) As Sanchez notes, Vargas is one of several younger players who will look to become eligible for this July 2 period (if they can secure an exemption) or the one that follows it. While most prominent Cuban players who have joined the league in recent years were older and more established, we seem to be experiencing an increasing trend of younger players looking to sign at the same age as their counterparts in other parts of Latin America.
  • 19-year-old Cuban outfielder Jorge Ona falls in between the veteran types and the just-eligible teenagers. As Ben Badler of Baseball America writes, Ona took the sixth spot on BA’s latest ranking of Cuban talent, and he’s the best player who has left the island in search of a big league job. Ona is still waiting to be declared a free agent, but Badler says he stands a good chance of qualifying to sign during the present signing period. There’s new video of the youngster available at the link.
  • Twins slugger Kennys Vargas — no known relation to the gentlemen of the same surname discussed above — has drawn interest from the Korea Baseball Organization, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Selling the rights to the 25-year-old slugger could help balance out the team’s prospective signing of Park, who would in some regards take the place of Vargas in the organization. Club VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff said that moving Vargas “wouldn’t be in play unless or until we got Park done.” Of couse, Vargas himself would need to agree to a move and reach a contract with a KBO club. The Twins have been among the most active MLB teams in sending players to Korea. (From a player’s perspective, there’s often quite a bit more money and fame to be found abroad. Eric Thames, for example, has turned into a KBO star.)
  • Meanwhile, 24-year-old Twins outfielder Oswaldo Arcia has told the team that he is not interested in going to Asia at this point. “The player has to agree,” Radcliff said. “He has no interest in doing that. He wants to be a major league star.” Arcia is coming off of a tough season — he was demoted and struggled at Triple-A — but has shown himself to be at least a competent major league hitter already. While he’s also a poorly-regarded defender, Arcia would still presumably draw interest from other big league clubs. He may well end up getting a chance elsewhere, as Berardino notes that he’s out of minor league options.

Giants Sign Brandon Crawford To Six-Year Extension

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6:11pm: Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports the breakdown of Crawford’s contract (via Twitter). He’ll receive a $1.2MM signing bonus $5.8MM in 2016 and $8MM in 2017 before earning $15MM per season from 2018 through 2021 — his would-be free-agent years.

4:56pm: The Giants announced that they’ve signed shortstop Brandon Crawford to a six-year contract extension. The new deal will buy out Crawford’s final two arbitration seasons and four free-agent years, keeping him in San Francisco through 2021 — his age-34 season. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Wasserman Media Group client will receive $75MM and a full no-trade clause in the deal.

Brandon Crawford

Crawford, 29 in January, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive $5.7MM this offseason in what would’ve been his second time through the arbitration process. If we assume something in the range of $8MM for his final arbitration salary, the Giants are buying out four free-agent seasons at a total of about $61-62MM — about $15.5MM annually.

In locking up Crawford, the Giants will secure one of the game’s premier shortstop defenders as he comes off an offensive breakout. Dating back to 2012, Crawford has tallied 42 Defensive Runs Saved — 19th in the Majors of any player at any position in that time. While he’s long been known more for his glove than his bat, Crawford’s isolated power (slugging minus batting average) has increased in each season of his Major League career, beginning at .092 in 2011 and topping out at this season’s hefty .205. Crawford slugged a career-best 21 homers in his age-28 season and tallied an excellent .256/.321/.462 batting line to complement his outstanding defense. Fangraphs valued his contributions at 4.7 wins above replacement, and Baseball-Reference weighed in at 5.6 WAR.

The Giants will hope that Crawford’s power outburst can be sustained, if not built upon, but it should be noted that Crawford doesn’t need to be a 20-homer bat at shortstop to justify the type of money committed to him in this deal. The average shortstop has been about 13 to 14 percent worse than the league-average hitter over the past four seasons, and Crawford’s bat exceeded those levels each year dating back to 2013 (when adjusting for his cavernous home park). Simply delivering better-than-average offense, relative to his positional peers, and continuing to turn in sterling defensive work should be enough for Crawford to justify, if not exceed the value of his new contract.

While Crawford, like any player who signs an extension of this nature, could have potentially earned more money by going year to year through arbitration and hitting the open market at age 30 in search of a five- or six-year deal through his age-36 campaign, he now has the security of knowing that he’ll remain with the only organization he’s ever known for the vast majority of his career. That carries plenty of weight for a player, especially one who was born and raised within about 45 miles of AT&T Park.

As for the Giants, they’ve undoubtedly done their homework in looking ahead at the players who joined Crawford in his service time bracket (between four and five years). Crawford would’ve easily led the shortstop class in free agency that season, as he’d be joined by the likes of Ruben Tejada, Danny Espinosa, Eduardo Nunez and Alexi Amarista. The Giants, with little in the way of big-league ready shortstops in the upper levels of their minor league system — most scouts feel that Christian Arroyo will need to move to third base, while Lucius Fox and Jalen Miller are probably at least four years away — have proactively addressed that need and locked down a fan favorite in the process.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Angels Sign Cliff Pennington To Two-Year Deal

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The Angels announced today that they’ve signed infielder Cliff Pennington to a two-year contract. Pennington, a client of Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon, will receive $1.5MM in 2016 and $2.25MM in 2017 for a $3.75MM guarantee, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter). Pennington can also earn up to $750K per season based on plate appearances, according to MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (Twitter link).

Cliff Pennington

Pennington, 31, split the 2015 season between the D-Backs and Blue Jays, batting a combined .210/.298/.281 in what was the worst offensive season of his eight-year Major League career. However, Pennington entered the 2015 season with a lifetime .248/.315/.350 batting line, giving hope that he can rebound to an extent at the plate while continuing to delivery sound defensive value by way of run prevention and positional versatility.

Pennington can competently play second base, shortstop and third base, grading out as an average or better defender at each infield position according to Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved. He’s a switch-hitter that has typically fared better from the larger (left-handed) side of the platoon, and while his speed hasn’t been as apparent in recent years, he averaged 19 steals per season in 2010-12 and has generally been a positive all-around contributor on the basepaths.

Pennington can provide the Angels with a backup plan to newly acquired Andrelton Simmons, as the team’s only backup option at shortstop had been Taylor Featherston, who is probably ticketed for Triple-A to open the 2016 campaign after surviving 2015 as a little-used Rule 5 utility option. The Angels currently have uncertainty at both second base and third base, so bringing Pennington into the fold gives them a bit of depth on the Major League roster, though they’ll almost certainly look to upgrade at one of the two spots. Johnny Giavotella handled second base duties in 2015 but is a poor defender with limited offensive upside, and the Angels may not want to count on Kyle Kubitza or Kaleb Cowart to immediately step into the picture at third base given their lack of experience.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Agree To Minors Pact With Kyle Blanks

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TODAY: The deal is complete pending physical, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News tweets.

YESTERDAY: The Giants are “close to finalizing” a minor-league deal with free agent outfielder/first baseman Kyle Blanks, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. The oft-injured slugger is expected to have a solid shot at breaking camp with the big club, Shea adds.

Blanks, 29, has at times looked like a possible big league regular. There have been ups and downs, but he owns a useful .241/.322/.416 batting line in 933 career plate appearances at the major league level, spread widely over seven seasons.

There are other reasons to believe that Blanks is worth a roll of the dice. For one thing, he’s dominated the Triple-A level to the tune of a .300/.400/.568 slash line. And defensive metrics have generally viewed him as an average (if not slightly above average) defender in the corner outfield and at first.

The biggest difficulty to date has been health. Blanks has suffered from elbow, shoulder, and foot issues over the last five years, and most recently underwent surgical procedures on both Achilles tendons.

It appears that San Francisco has in mind to utilize Blanks as a right-handed-hitting bench bat, if he cracks the roster. He could theoretically spell Brandon Belt at first, though Buster Posey also figures to see some time there. It’s also possible to imagine Blanks spending time in left field — at least if the club does not add a big-name free agent to play there.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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Despite losing ace Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery in Spring Training, the Rangers shocked everyone with a return to the postseason. Now, they’ll look to build toward a 2016 return despite possibly losing a few key contributors to free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Prince Fielder, 1B/DH: $120MM through 2020 ($6MM paid annually by Tigers)
  • Elvis Andrus, SS: $103MM through 2022 (can opt out after 2018 or 2019 seasons)
  • Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $102MM through 2020
  • Cole Hamels, SP: $73.5MM through 2018
  • Yu Darvish, SP: $21MM through 2017
  • Adrian Beltre, 3B: $18MM through 2016
  • Derek Holland, $11.5MM through 2016 (includes buyout of 2017 option)
  • Martin Perez, SP: $9.75MM through 2017 (includes buyout of 2018 option)
  • Josh Hamilton, OF: About $6MM through 2017 (can opt out after 2016 season)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

Most pundits were throwing dirt on the Rangers’ grave as early as March. The news of Yu Darvish’s Tommy John surgery and pre-existing injuries to Derek Holland, Martin Perez and others led observers to wonder how Texas could conceivably contend in a tough AL West — especially considering no one knew what to expect from Prince Fielder coming off 2014 neck surgery.

As we know now, the story played out quite differently. Fielder returned with a flourish, earning American League Comeback Player of the Year honors. The club rode early, albeit unsustainable hot streaks from the likes of Nick Martinez and Wandy Rodriguez, each of whom helped bridge the gap to the return of Holland and Perez. Shawn Tolleson stepped up and solidified the ninth inning after former Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz was designated for assignment and released. Everything seemed to click for the Rangers, whose outlook heading into 2016 already looks vastly improved.

That’s due, in large part, to the fact that the Rangers effectively did some of their offseason shopping in July. The loss of the five prospects with which GM Jon Daniels parted to acquire Hamels undoubtedly stung, but the Rangers softened the blow by convincing the Phillies to surrender live-armed lefty setup man Jake Diekman, take on the remainder of Matt Harrison’s contract and include $9.5MM in cash. Hamels will probably be the Opening Day starter for Texas next season unless Darvish is ready to go for the opener. Regardless of their ordering, that duo will create a formidable one-two punch for second-year manager Jeff Banister.

The Rangers have Holland, Perez, Martinez, former first-rounder Chi Chi Gonzalez and Nick Tepesch as internal rotation options to fill in behind the co-aces, but there’s still interest in re-signing Colby Lewis, and a reunion with Fort Worth native Yovani Gallardo can’t be ruled out. Gallardo should command at least a three-year deal, if not four, but the Rangers made sure to recoup some value by a qualifying offer to the right-hander, so they’ll secure a 2016 draft pick if he’s not retained.

Adding a starting pitcher is said to be a priority for the Rangers, and I’d imagine they’ll look to add an arm even if a new pact with Lewis is reached. Lewis delivered 204 innings for an injury-hampered club, but he turned 36 in August and logged a 4.66 ERA (4.17 FIP) this season. If he can be had on a one-year deal, it could make sense to lock down those innings but still bring in a younger arm that can be relied upon for better results.

It’s not clear whether the Rangers would be open to free agents that require draft pick forfeiture, but reports early in the offseason indicated that they’d only be interested in Matt Wieters if the Orioles’ catcher did not receive a QO. (Of course, Wieters did receive one and made the surprising decision to accept, so he’s not a consideration anymore.) If the team is intent upon keeping its pick, then the free agent pitching options could include names like J.A. Happ, Scott Kazmir, Rich Hill, Mike Leake, Mike Pelfrey, and Chris Young.

Of course, that prior report on Wieters also seems to indicate an openness to upgrading at catcher. Daniels has expressed a willingness to do so this winter, but the need isn’t as strong as many would think. Robinson Chirinos is far from a household name, but the 31-year-old batted .232/.325/.438 with 13 homers this season to go along with more or less average pitch-framing numbers and a solid 29 percent caught-stealing rate. He’s not a defensive wizard nor is he an elite slugger, but his bat is above-average for a catcher, he’s a competent defender and he can be had for little more than the league-minimum. Wins above replacement pegs Chirinos at about four wins over the past two seasons (4.2 rWAR, 3.8 fWAR). That’s a useful starter, especially at his price, and clear free-agent upgrades aren’t readily available, especially with Wieters and A.J. Pierzynski off the market. Jonathan Lucroy could potentially be a sizable upgrade, but he finished the year battling post-concussion symptoms, casting some doubt on his ability to get behind the dish every day. (He played only first base upon return from the disabled list.) The Brewers would probably be open to moving him for a significant return, but they may be able to extract more from an acquiring team if Lucroy is traded this summer once he demonstrates his health. Whenever he’s made available, the Rangers will probably at least check in.

Looking around the infield, the Rangers are set with Mitch Moreland at first base, Rougned Odor at second, Elvis Andrus at shortstop and Adrian Beltre at third base. In the event that either corner option falls to injury — each has had some struggles with the injury bug in recent years — prospect Joey Gallo could again enter the fold. Gallo wowed early in his Major League debut, but his penchant for strikeouts was soon exposed. He ultimately landed in Triple-A and struggled to make contact there as well. Still, Gallo is a potential 40-homer threat, and the Rangers may want to find a way to see him in the Majors for an extended time next year, as he could be the team’s regular third baseman as soon as 2017.

Texas will probably shop Andrus’ unfortunate contract around to see if there are any takers for the 27-year-old, but that’s not likely (at least, not without the Rangers taking on a similarly undesirable deal or absorbing an enormous amount of cash). Andrus’ bat never developed like Texas hoped, and it in fact regressed heavily following the 2012 season. Defensive metrics have been down on Andrus over the past two seasons as well, with his once premium ratings slipping to well below-average over that two-year span.

One idea that the Rangers are said to be considering is a long-term contract for Odor. Still just 21 years old, Odor looked utterly lost early in the season, and a .144/.252/.233 batting line in mid-May finally earned him a demotion back to the minors. Odor remained at Triple-A for about five weeks before returning with a 3-for-3 showing on June 15. That big game set the tone for the rest of his season, as the highly touted young infielder would hit an incredible .292/.334/.527 with 15 home runs over his final 91 games. That’s outstanding production for any second baseman, let alone one who is younger than the average player in the Class-A Midwest League. An extension would guarantee Odor his first fortune while possibly extending the Rangers’ club control into Odor’s free agent years by a season or two. Odor currently projects to be a free agent heading into his age-27 season, so he can still hit the open market at a young age even if he signs away a free agent year in exchange for his first major payday.

The X-factor in the infield is shortstop Jurickson Profar. Formerly ranked the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball, Profar’s career has stalled after he twice ripped a muscle in his shoulder, requiring a pair of surgeries and a lengthy rehabilitation. Profar is making up for some lost time by playing in the Arizona Fall League, but he’s been DHing there and still needs to work his way back up to full-time fielding efforts. If it seems like forever ago that Profar homered in his first Major League at-bat, that’s because that long ball occurred back in 2012. The Rangers almost certainly wouldn’t sell this low by trading Profar now, especially when he’s so close to a possible Major League return. They’ll instead see if he can handle some time in the middle infield next year, possibly starting him out at Triple-A while working him back in with the glove. In the unlikely event that the team is able to find a taker for Andrus, the Rangers could bring in a veteran shortstop like Cliff Pennington or Clint Barmes (if not a more expensive option like Alexei Ramirez or Jimmy Rollins) to handle shortstop and hope that Profar can eventually slide into regular reps there. Or, young Hanser Alberto, who filled in admirably for the injured Beltre in late 2015, could see some time there.

In the outfield, Choo’s contract isn’t exactly favorable in its own right, but his second half makes it look far less daunting for the Rangers. The 33-year-old delivered a strong August and a Herculean September to end with a .343/.455/.560 second-half batting line. He won’t repeat the .420 BABIP that he logged following the break, but Choo walked at a 14.4 percent clip and slugged 11 homers over his final 305 plate appearances, so the improved production wasn’t all BABIP smoke and mirrors. Perhaps it’s not enough to convince a team to take on Choo’s contract in a trade, but it’s enough that the team can feel more comfortable that he can hold down a prominent role heading into the 2016 campaign.

The Rangers’ first major move of the offseason was to ship out Leonys Martin in an intradivision trade that netted Tom Wilhelmsen, James Jones and a player to be named later from the Mariners. In doing so, Texas essentially named Delino DeShields Jr. its starting center fielder. He’ll receive the bulk of the at-bats there and bring plenty of speed to the top of the order. A left-handed hitting backup option might be worth considering, though Jones, acquired in the Martin trade, could fill that role, and DeShields’ .334 OBP versus right-handers in 2015 doesn’t suggest that a platoon is necessary.

Hamilton is in line to receive quite a bit of playing time as well, but he underwent a second minor knee operation this winter and struggled to stay healthy in 2015. The Rangers picked him up on the cheap from the Angels and aren’t heavily invested in Hamilton from a financial standpoint, so I don’t envision him standing in the way of a significant bat, should an opportunity present itself. A right-handed bat is said to be something Daniels and Co. are seeking this offseason, and left field would make a reasonable place to deploy that bat. However, a run at Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes could simply be deemed too pricey. Texas already has $76.5MM committed as far out as the 2018 season and $54MM in both 2019 and 2020. Adding another $20MM+ salary to the ledger for those seasons this far in advance is a risky endeavor and probably shouldn’t be deemed likely unless the club shuffles some salary by dealing Andrus or Choo.

Perhaps a more likely scenario would be an addition in the Steve Pearce mold — a player who can at least platoon with Hamilton in left field and can also fill in for Mitch Moreland at first base if needed. Pearce crushes left-handed pitching and would bring a bit of versatility to the table as an emergency option elsewhere around the infield (he played some second base in Baltimore in 2015). Texas could pursue a reunion with Mike Napoli, who filled that role last year, but Napoli’s left-field experience is limited to 2015, whereas Pearce has more than 2,000 innings of outfield experience between the Majors and Minors.

With Tolleson, Wilhelmsen, July acquisition Sam Dyson (one of the most underrated trade pickups of the year) and brilliant rookie Keone Kela serving as right-handed bullpen options and Diekman representing a terrific left-handed option, there’s a lot of talent in the bullpen. Sam Freeman is a potential second lefty after logging a 3.05 ERA in 38 1/3 innings, but while Freeman struck out 40 hitters in that time he also walked 25 men — an average of nearly six free passes per nine innings. A lefty with better control is something the Rangers may consider, and there’s the possibility that they’ll pursue a more proven ninth-inning arm. Tolleson was great for much of the season but did wilt late in the year. Then again, that could have something to do with Banister’s alarming decision to pitch Tolleson on five consecutive days from late September into early October.

The bottom line for the Rangers is that a team that was little more than an afterthought seven months ago is now entering the offseason with firm expectations of contending in 2016. Daniels and his staff will look to supplement the team’s lineup and rotation with complementary pieces, knowing full well that much of the club’s core is already in place.

Poll: Assessing The Andrelton Simmons Trade

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We often hear talk of which team “won” a trade, despite the fact that most deals are driven at least as much by organizational need as they are asset valuation. Truthfully, assessing a swap from that perspective alone is rarely sufficient and often misleading. That being said, it can be an interesting exercise to focus purely on value, especially when a deal involves long-term assets on both sides.

That’s the way this poll will approach the recent trade between the Braves and Angels. Let’s break down the contractual assets that changed hands:

Angels Receive

  • Andrelton Simmons, 26, SS — Controlled for five years with $53MM guaranteed. Arguably the game’s best defensive player, Simmons has historically been merely an average hitter for his position. He has shown some power (17 home runs in 2013), though, arguably making him a high-floor player with upside.
  • Jose Briceno, 23, C — The backstop, seemingly a minor part of the deal, has yet to advance into the upper minors and struggled last year at the High-A level.

Braves Receive

  • Sean Newcomb, 22, LHP — Rising prospect with 6+ years of control available who pitched at Double-A level last year. The power southpaw has significant upside but has battled control issues.
  • Chris Ellis, 23, RHP — Fast-moving college arm who could contribute at the back of a rotation. He also reached Double-A in 2015 and can be controlled for 6+ seasons in majors.
  • Erick Aybar, 31, SS — Entering his final year of control at a $8.5MM salary, Aybar could be an underappreciated part of this deal. He’s a quality veteran infielder coming off of a down year, but with a history of sturdy defense, good speed, and an above-average bat for a shortstop. He could also become a trade chip this winter or at the trade deadline.
  • $2.5MM (representing difference between 2016 salaries of Simmons and Aybar)

Both organizations have new general managers who went out on a limb, in different ways, to strike this deal. And both talked about the value proposition that they faced (in addition to considerations of organizational need).

Angels GM Billy Eppler has many roster holes to fill, and could easily have relied on Aybar, but explained that the trade presented a rare chance to add a top-quality defender at the game’s most important position in the field. “When you have an opportunity, you do it,” he said. “The free agent market does not generally offer a plentiful amount of shortstops. It was a supply-and-demand equation.” Only that kind of premium ability could justify giving up Newcomb’s huge arm, per Eppler, who said that doing so “gives you a lot of pause and makes your stomach hurt a little bit.”

For Braves GM John Coppolella, meanwhile, there were also references to the need to seize an opportunity to acquire hard-to-get assets at an appealing price. “It’s a very tough trade, and a painful trade for us,” he said. “We didn’t want to trade Andrelton Simmons. But we felt this was too good for us to pass up. We felt like we were getting so much talent back in this deal, that if we didn’t make this trade, it would be very tough for us to keep going forward with our plans.” He went on to discuss the importance of Aybar to the swap, noting that the deal was not “some kind of prospect trade,” but rather “was a value-for-value trade that had two really good prospects in it.”

So, both general managers felt so torn about the deal that their comments referenced pain (physical or otherwise). Yet both also saw a value proposition that was simply too good to pass up. The Halos pulled the trigger even though they already had a good shortstop in place for 2016 and will have rotation openings thereafter. And the rebuilding Braves made the deal despite Simmons’ youth and control, not to mention the fact that they have already built a stable of young pitching through other trades.

We’ll have to wait to see how things play out, of course, but it’s still fun to ask: if you were forced to take one side of this deal, from a pure value perspective (i.e., ignoring team-specific context), which one would you take?

David Ross Likely To Retire After Season

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Cubs catcher David Ross said yesterday that he’s likely to retire after the coming season in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). The veteran is entering the second and final season of the two-year, $5MM free agent deal he signed to join the Chicago organization.

“I think this is probably going to be it for me,” said Ross. He explained that he’s “going to give it one more run” but that it’s “time to be a dad” thereafter.

Ross, 38, is entering his 15th season of MLB action and has long been one of the game’s best-respected back-up backstops. Though he has only taken more than 200 plate appearances in a season twice in his career — over 2006 and 2007 with the Reds — Ross has seen regular reserve duty (between 100 and 200 PA) in every season dating back to 2003.

At his best, Ross has presented a reliable on-base threat with good pop. While he had several such individual seasons, his best multi-year stretch was with the Braves between 2009 and 2013. Over those four years, Ross slashed a robust .269/.353/.463 and joined Brian McCann to make up one of the league’s best catcher pairings. Of course, the veteran is also a gifted defender who still rates as an outstanding pitch framer even as his offensive production has fallen off.

Ross is a well-traveled player, though the “journeyman” tag does not fit here given his consistent playing time and many multi-season stops. In addition to the clubs mentioned above, Ross played for the World Series champion Red Sox in 2013, his first of two seasons in Boston, opened his career with the Dodgers, and had briefer stints with the Pirates and Padres.

It remains to be seen whether Ross will ultimately consider another campaign beyond 2016. As things stand, though, it appears that he’ll enjoy one more season with an exciting, young Cubs team before hanging up his gear.

Free Agent Notes: Greinke, Soria, Hill, Parra, Anderson

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It may not be wise to assume that the Dodgers will end up bringing back righty Zack Greinke, ESPNLos Angeles.com’s Mark Saxon writes. The team has shown indications that it is looking for younger, less expensive assets rather than huge veteran contracts. And Greinke himself may be less than thrilled with the clubhouse culture in L.A., leaving a “distaste” that “is believed to be a factor in his thinking.” Obviously, Greinke and the club thrived with his first contract, so it’s probably not worth writing off a return, but the report does suggest the interest may not be as clear as had generally been assumed.

Here’s the latest on some other free agent situations around the league:

  • The Tigers have “picked up” talks with reliever Joakim Soria but haven’t yet made him an offer, MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports. Soria received one offer from an unknown team earlier in the offseason, says Beck, but the market has moved slowly as a potentially-active trade market for pen arms continues to sort itself out.
  • Lefty Rich Hill is expected to sign a contract this week, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. It’s not clear which club, but Bradford says it isn’t the Red Sox. Hill’s out-of-nowhere late-season run in Boston has made him an interesting piece of the market picture. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Hill will be able to secure a one-year deal with a $5MM guarantee.
  • The Mets have had contact with the representatives for free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, Marc Carig of Newsday reports on Twitter. Parra would, presumably, take part in a platoon with Juan Lagares, though that would mean relying on him rather heavily in center. While he’s played there, Parra has spent far more time in the corner outfield. And it could well be hard to find enough playing time to woo the 28-year-old, given that the club is rather heavily invested in Lagares and has two left-handed hitters (Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto) set to man the corners.
  • Dodgers lefty Brett Anderson spoke with reporters today about his decision to accept the $15.8MM qualifying offer, as Saxon reports. He indicated that he was hoping to continue to build his stock in advance of next year’s market, a risky but tantalizing strategy. On the one hand, Anderson has a lengthy injury history and is finally coming off of a healthy season; on the other, he’s still young, has mostly dealt with a few fluke injuries in recent years, and can look forward to a seller-friendly market next winter. “There were some multi-year deals out there, but my situation was a little unique and I just wanted to better myself,” Anderson said. “That, and I liked being in L.A., I liked my teammates, I liked everything about it other than the ending of the season.” Anderson also noted that he and the Dodgers had discussed a multi-year arrangement at some point and could again pursue some kind of deal, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets.

 

MLBTR Mailbag: Freeman, Angels, Mets, Marlins, Chapman

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With the offseason underway and multiple blockbuster trades already in the books, let’s dive into another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag…

I was wondering what the return for Freddie Freeman would look like. Since I am a Pirates fan, and am asking within that context, then what would the Pirates need to offer to get a deal done? — Kellen H.

No fewer than a dozen questions asking about the Pirates and Freeman this week. Sorry to disappoint Pirates fans, but I don’t see a realistic way that it gets done. Freeman is owed $118.5MM over the next six seasons, which is just about double the largest contract in Pirates franchise history. Add that to the likely prospect price — one would imagine names like Tyler Glasnow, Josh Bell, Reese McGuire, Jameson Taillon, etc. coming up in talks — and it’s just not realistic, barring a huge shift in the Pittsburgh payroll.

With the Angels trading their top two minor league prospects to Atlanta for Simmons, are they in a position to acquire any offense via trade (i.e. Trevor Plouffe, Brett Gardner, Todd Frazier)? Or are the Angels relegated to Free Agent spending? Did they spend Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis wisely or could they have gotten more for the pair (i.e. Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig)? — Marcus R.

I liked the Simmons deal for the Angels quite a bit and wholeheartedly disagree with the suggestion that Jay Bruce would’ve been “more” to get for Newcomb/Ellis.

The Angels probably don’t have a ton of pieces to move for Frazier — the Reds are looking for controllable, MLB-ready players and the Angels are thin in such types of impact talent, especially on the position-player side of things. Plouffe could potentially be had for a pair of power bullpen arms, though, and Gardner could be attainable as well, though the Angels probably don’t want to surrender any more starting pitching, and I’d imagine that’s the ask for him.

How do you think the Mets are going to replace the power in their lineup from the departure of Cespedes and Murphy. Is Ian Desmond an option for them? — Jonathan V.

They don’t really need to replace Murphy’s power. His postseason performance was never sustainable, and he’s never had that much pop. Murphy is consistently about 5-10 percent above the league average in terms of park-adjusted offense, which is valuable but not irreplaceable. The Mets were already contending without Cespedes, so I don’t think they suddenly need to scramble to find a 35-homer bat or anything, either.

The Mets will have full seasons of Syndergaard, Matz and Conforto next season, and that alone should make up for much of the value lost when Cespedes signs elsewhere. The team had a down performance from Dillon Gee for the early portion of the season and lackluster numbers from guys like John Mayberry, Darrell Ceciliani and Kirk Nieuwenhuis before Cespedes and Conforto came onto the scene. Full years of their young players will replace a large portion of the value brought to the table by Cespedes.

All that said, I can see them making a play for Desmond, but he’s not going to bring Cespedes-style power to the picture for them or anything.

With the probable 2016 returns of Jose Fernandez and Henderson Alvarez, I believe the Marlins will be in a good spot to at least contend for a NL Wild Card Spot, given both Fernandez and Alvarez are healthy. They also would need one other quality starter in the rotation. Is it probable that the Marlins will seriously  pursue some of the quality starters on the market such as Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen, Jordan Zimmerman or Yovani Gallardo? — Jamil V.

That’s a more bullish view than I have on the current iteration of the Marlins, but nonetheless I do think they’ll be in the market for a mid-rotation starter. I picked them to sign J.A. Happ in our free agent prediction contest. Happ had a huge breakout with the Pirates, and the Marlins hired special assistant Jim Benedict — who played an integral role in advance scouting and working with the pitchers in Pittsburgh — away from the Bucs this winter. The Marlins can reportedly spend around $12MM annually on a pitcher this winter, and I think Happ will come in a bit south of that AAV anyhow.

If not him, then yeah, I can see Gallardo being in play. Chen and certainly Zimmermann will command annual values out the Marlins’ comfort zone, and Kazmir could fit that description as well. Miami could reasonably make plays for either Ian Kennedy or Mike Pelfrey from a financial standpoint, but they may not be keen on dealing with Scott Boras (who represents those two and Chen as well) after the recent anger expressed toward Boras by president David Samson.

What do you think its going to take for the Rangers to get a solid catcher this year? — Mike C.

I think they already have one in Robinson Chirinos. He doesn’t hit for much average, but a .232/.325/.438 batting line out of a catcher is pretty strong. Chirinos’ production was slightly above that of a league-average hitter and worlds better than a league-average catcher. The league-average batting line for a catcher in 2015 was .238/.302/.376, so Chirinos got on base at an above-average clip and showed considerably more power than most backstops. He’s also caught 31 percent of base-stealers in his career and improved his pitch-framing skills in 2015. He could improve defensively, but you could do a lot worse than Chirinos as the primary catcher.

In light of the Craig Kimbrel trade, what kind of return can Cincinnati expect on Aroldis Chapman? With just one year of control, compared to three for Kimbrel, will the Reds receive significantly less than the Red Sox gave the Padres? — Tim S.

Yeah, the return on Chapman is going to be less than what the Padres received for Kimbrel. Even if the contracts were closer to even, it’d be really hard for me to imagine a team paying more than Boston did for Kimbrel — that was quite a bit to give up, even for a reliever that dominant. The Reds want MLB-ready players, and looking at their roster, outfielders seem like a potential area of focus (especially if Jay Bruce is traded this winter). For me, you’re looking at one MLB-ready position player and maybe another lower-level piece or two, with the secondary portion of the return dependent upon the quality of the headliner.

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