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Giants Trade Blake Sabol To Red Sox

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2:04pm: The teams have announced the moves.

1:48pm: The Red Sox have a deal in place to acquire catcher/outfielder Blake Sabol from the Giants, as first reported by Hunter Noll of Beyond the Monster. Boston will send international bonus pool space back to the Giants. Right-hander Chase Shugart is being designated for assignment in order to open a spot on the Sox’ 40-man roster, Noll adds. San Francisco designated Sabol for assignment last week.

Sabol, 27, was the Giants’ Rule 5 pick out of the Pirates system prior to the 2023 season. He stuck on San Francisco’s roster all year, posting a .235/.301/.394 batting line (91 wRC+) with 13 home runs but an ugly 34% strikeout rate. Sabol’s Rule 5 selection came on the heels of a stout .284/.363/.497 slash between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. With that big performance and a respectable rookie showing in the big leagues, he looked as though he could have a role on the Giants for several years to come.

That, however, was not to be. Sabol spent nearly the entire 2024 season in Triple-A and struggled considerably. He slashed .246/.340/.388 there — about 15% worse than league-average production. He went 10-for-32 in a tiny cup of big league coffee, bringing his career rate stats to .243/.313/.392 in 382 plate appearances. That wasn’t enough to save his spot on the roster following a regime change in the Giants’ baseball operations staff that has seen former NL MVP Buster Posey take over as the department’s president.

Sabol has caught 458 innings in the majors and played 271 innings of left field. He didn’t grade as a plus defender in either spot, though both positions come with a pretty small sample of playing time. The Giants added a bit of first base to Sabol’s defensive repertoire in 2024. He’s now caught 1843 innings, played 943 innings across all three outfield spots and played 172 innings at first base since being selected by Pittsburgh in the seventh round of the 2019 draft. Sabol has a pair of minor league option years and five seasons of club control remaining.

With the Red Sox, Sabol will compete with Carlos Narvaez — and any additional catching depth brought in by the Sox — to see who’ll serve as the backup to starting catcher Connor Wong in 2025.

For the Giants, adding some extra pool space is notable. San Francisco punted on a combined $1MM of pool space last offseason when they signed Matt Chapman and Blake Snell after they rejected qualifying offers. That left them tied with the archrival Dodgers for the smallest international bonus pool in the game, at $5.146MM. Between this swap and the trade of righty Will Kempner to the Marlins, they’ve added to that pool by at least $500K, as international allotments must be traded in increments of $250K. The Giants spent $3MM — more than 58% of their initial pool — on top international signing Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez earlier today, so the extra dollars will help to offset some of that weighty bonus.

Turning to the 28-year-old Shugart, he made his big league debut with the Sox this past season, yielding four runs on eight hits and three walks with eight strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings of relief. He spent the bulk of the 2024 season in Triple-A Worcester, where he logged a 4.46 earned run average, 25.6% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate in 70 2/3 innings, mostly out of the bullpen.

Shugart was originally selected by the Red Sox in the 12th round of the 2018 draft. He generally posted solid numbers up through the Double-A level before struggling mightily in his first two seasons of Triple-A ball in 2022-23. This past year was the first in which he’s posted solid numbers at the top minor league level. During his brief big league look, he showed a five-pitch mix — four-seamer, cutter, sinker, slider, changeup — and sat 96.1 mph with his heater. He didn’t induce many swings and misses in the big leagues but turned in a solid 11.7% swinging-strike rate in Worcester.

The Red Sox will have five days to trade Shugart. If not traded by then, he’ll need to be placed on waivers, which is a 48-hour process itself. If he goes unclaimed on waivers, the Red Sox can retain him as non-roster depth in Triple-A and invite him to big league camp this spring. Within the next week, he’ll have some form of resolution on his current DFA status.

Giants Have Had Recent Talks With Randal Grichuk

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The Giants have had recent talks with free agent outfielder Randal Grichuk and his representatives at Excel Sports, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Giants have been looking for ways to upgrade the offense, and the veteran Grichuk would give them a right-handed bat to pair with lefty-swinging outfielders Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski.

Grichuk, 33, was outstanding at the plate for the division-rival Diamondbacks in 2024, batting .291/.348/.528 with a dozen homers, 20 doubles, a pair of triples, a career-best 7.2% walk rate (still below league-average) and a career-low 16.5% strikeout rate. As is typically the case, he was used selectively, with 184 of his 279 plate appearances coming versus left-handed pitching.

Grichuk, as he tends to do, absolutely torched southpaw opponents. He slashed .319/.386/.528 against lefties — good for 51% better than league-average production, by measure of wRC+. He was more strikeout-prone and less likely to walk against righties, but Grichuk maintained his power output even against same-handed opponents; in 94 plate appearances against right-handers, he hit .242/.274/.527.

Also by measure of wRC+, the Giants were one of the ten best teams against lefties in 2024. That’s largely due to the preposterous production of young righty-swinging outfielder Heliot Ramos in such situations (.370/.439/.750). Any player would be hard-pressed to replicate stats that outrageous, however, and San Francisco also lost two of its better hitters against southpaws from last season; Jorge Soler (.277/.387/.500) was traded to the Braves at the deadline, and Michael Conforto (.284/.349/.537) signed with the Dodgers.

Shortstop Willy Adames, who signed a seven-year deal with the Giants earlier this winter, also hits right-handed but has been far more productive against righties than lefties in his career (and in 2024). A signing of Grichuk would help to deepen the lineup against lefties and offset some of the production lost to the departures of Soler/Conforto and some likely regression from Ramos.

As things stand, RosterResource projects the Giants’ payroll just shy of $182MM. That’s not particularly close to the franchise-record $200MM. Their CBT ledger sits at $222MM, leaving them $19MM from the point at which they’d have to pay the luxury tax for what would be a second straight season. Impressive as Grichuk’s 2024 season was, he won’t command anywhere near the type of guarantee that’d push the Giants close to that tax threshold, so he’d be an affordable add that also leaves room for some additional spending, even if the aim is to reset their CBT penalty level.

Nationals Outright Joan Adon

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The Nationals announced Wednesday that right-hander Joan Adon passed through waivers unclaimed after he was designated for assignment last week. He’ll remain with the organization and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Rochester. Washington designated Adon to clear roster space for free agent signee Amed Rosario.

The 26-year-old Adon has logged big league time with the Nats in each of the past four seasons. He’s totaled 132 1/3 innings but sports a 6.66 earned run average in that time. He’s fanned 19% of his opponents, issued walks at an 11.3% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.3% rate. Both those strikeout and walk rates are worse than league-average, but Adon’s grounder rate is a few percentage points above par and he averages about 95 mph on his heater.

Adon has been durable in the upper minors, typically working as a starter, but he’s also gotten some bullpen work in recent seasons as his big league results have been lackluster. Given that he sits nearly 95 mph as a starter when he’s facing lineups multiple times, it’s fair to wonder how high that velocity might trend upward if he were to move to short relief stints.

Adon was out of minor league options, so the Nationals would’ve had to either break camp with him on the Opening Day roster or jettison him from the 40-man by way of trade or DFA at some point during spring training. Now that he’s cleared waivers, he’ll head to big league camp this spring as a non-roster invitee. If he doesn’t pitch his way back into the big league plans, he’ll start the year in Rochester and bide his time while waiting for another opportunity.

Washington’s rotation mix is deeper after signing Michael Soroka and re-signing Trevor Williams. That pair will join MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin and DJ Herz — all four of whom delivered some encouraging performances in 2024 (albeit with some late fades as that group surpassed previous career-high workloads). With that group of six starters in the fold and top prospect Cade Cavalli hoping for a healthy 2025 campaign, Adon has been pushed a ways down the depth chart. A full-time look in the ’pen could be interesting, but it’s not yet clear how the Nats will utilize him moving forward.

Daniel Bard To Throw Off Mound In February, Planning To Sign In April

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Veteran right-hander Daniel Bard missed the 2024 season after undergoing surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right elbow. He sat down with Rob Bradford on the Baseball Isn’t Boring Podcast eight months ago to discuss how the injury impacts his mindset, his daily routine and to give an inside look into the life of an injured pitcher. He also suggested within that his recovery would be about a full year. That timetable still seems largely the same. Bradford reports this morning that Bard is planning to resume throwing off a mound early next month. He’s hopeful of signing with a team in April and pitching in games not long after.

Bard’s surgery repaired only his flexor tendon and not his ulnar collateral ligament, the pitcher himself told Bradford in that interview. He’d been pitching through elbow pain for some time but reached a point where he could no longer complete a bullpen session. An MRI revealed the need for surgical repair.

Now 39 years old, Bard posted elite results as recently as 2022, when he notched a dominant 1.79 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate in 60 1/3 innings for the Rockies. His 34 saves that season were a career-high and ranked sixth in all of baseball. He was a heavily speculated trade candidate that summer, given his status as an impending free agent on a non-contending Colorado club, but the Rox inked Bard to a two-year, $19MM extension instead.

Clearly, that deal didn’t pan out. Bard was brilliant in April and May the following season before taking a step back in June/July and cratering in August and September. The righty told Bradford he was pitching through elbow pain for much of that 2023 season.

Since returning from a six-year absence in the major leagues back in 2020, Bard has been inconsistent but effective on the whole. He sports a 3.83 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and a bloated 13.5% walk rate that’s skewed by the 21.1% walk rate he logged in ’23 while pitching through elbow pain and anxiety. Bard attributed his dominant 2022 showing to scrapping his four-seamer and changing the arm slot on his sinker; if he can get back to anything close to that form, he’d be a bargain for anyone who signs him.

That’s far from a given, of course, but the most recently healthy version of Bard we saw was one of the best relievers in the sport. Given that he’s going to wait until he’s close to game-ready to sign, it’s possible Bard will sign a prorated big league deal and then consent to be optioned when April rolls around. Presumably, he’ll host a workout/showcase for interested teams at that point. He’s spent the past four years in the Rockies organization and spoke fondly of his time there and his teammates with the club, which could give the Rox a leg up if they’re interested in a reunion, but a healthy Bard should draw interest from a wide range of teams.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/25

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January 15 marks the official opening of the international signing period. The majority of top talents have reached verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance, they’re allowed to formally put pen to paper to begin their affiliated careers. The signing period technically runs until December 15, but many of the top signees ink their contracts as soon as first eligible.

This year’s international market has been thrown into disarray, to an extent, by the emergence of star NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki on the market. While Sasaki is an established professional in every sense of the word over in Japan, his age (23) and the fact that he has fewer than six seasons of pro ball in another country under his belt make him an “amateur” under the purview of Major League Baseball’s international free agency structure.

As such, we’ve seen both the Dodgers and Padres both hold off on finalizing longstanding agreements with other teams and, in some cases, let players with whom they’ve had standing verbal agreements instead pursue other opportunities. The Dodgers, for instance, saw Dominican shortstop Darell Morel instead agree to a $1.8MM bonus with the Pirates. That worked out for Morel, who’d agreed to sign for roughly half that amount with Los Angeles (likely more than a year prior). Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports that Venzuelan outfielder Oscar Patiño also walked away from his Dodgers deal ($400K) to sign for a $570K bonus with the White Sox. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen reported yesterday that Dominican outfielder Teilon Serrano, another Dodgers commit, will instead sign with the Twins now. He’ll receive roughly $1MM from Minnesota, per Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com.

Those defections will sting for the Dodgers if they’re unable to ultimately sway Sasaki to sign in Los Angeles, though there will be other opportunities to spend those dollars down the road. Unexpected amateur players can pop up well after a signing period has commenced, and Los Angeles would also have the ability to trade some any unused international money. The Dodgers have long been regarded as the Sasaki favorite — so much so that agent Joel Wolfe had to publicly deny speculation regarding a predetermined agreement between the two sides — and the recent run of prospects bolting from their international class does little to quell that perception. The Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are the three finalists for Sasaki, whose posting window closes on Jan. 23.

Turning back to the rest of the class, Badler has a team-by-team breakdown of the most prominent signings over at Baseball America, as well as scouting reports and (in some cases) projected bonuses for as many as 100 players. Longenhagen runs through his own list of 50 international prospects with their expected team and signing bonus over at FanGraphs, as well as a detailed look at some of intricacies and idiosyncrasies of Sasaki’s unique free agent saga. Romero runs through 35 high-profile international talents and their expected team/signing bonus at his site as well. At MLB.com, Jesse Sanchez and Jesse Borek have their own ranking of the top 50 in the class, with scouting reports on each. Those interested in the finer details of this year’s collection of international amateurs are highly encouraged to check out those resources in full. Badler, Longenhagen, Romero, Sanchez and many others around the baseball world dedicate enormous portions of their time and efforts to covering this topic to the fullest.

Note: This is not a comprehensive list of all international signings, nor is it intended to be. If your favorite team is not listed here, it’s not because they’ve sat out the IFA market. There are a few dozen players who’ll sign $1MM+ bonuses and a few hundred who’ll ink six-figure bonuses. Those interested in a comprehensive rundown of the international class can check out links to the excellent work from Badler, Romero, Sanchez and Longenhagen provided above. We’ll run down some of the top signing bonuses here, focusing on those that check in at $2.5MM or more. These are ordered by reported signing bonus, and this list will be updated multiple times today:

  • Elian Peña, SS, Mets: The Mets paid a reported $5MM bonus to Pena, per Badler, which represents a whopping 80% of their $6.261MM bonus pool. Currently listed at 5’11” and 170 pounds, Pena is a lefty-swinging shortstop who’s expected to move down the defensive spectrum but have more than enough bat to profile at third base or second base if all pans out. Badler and Romero both liken his power potential to that of Rafael Devers, praising his pitch recognition, plate discipline and willingness to draw walks. He turned 17 in October.
  • Andrew Salas, SS/OF Marlins: The younger brother of Twins infield prospect Jose Salas (originally signed by Miami but traded to Minnesota alongside Pablo Lopez) and current Padres top prospect Ethan Salas, Andrew will turn 17 in March. He’s a switch-hitter who’s touted for his patient approach, good swing decisions and balance on both sides of the plate. MLB.com lauds him as a potential plus defender both at shortstop and in center field. Salas was born in Florida but moved to Venezuela, his family’s native country, and is already bilingual as a result. The Marlins are committing a $3.6MM bonus to the youngest of the three Salas brothers, per Romero.
  • Cris Rodriguez, OF, Tigers: Rodriguez receives a $3.2MM bonus from Detroit, per Badler. Already 6’4″ and 200 pounds with his 17th birthday still two weeks away, Rodriguez stands out for his bat speed and raw power. Badler calls him a potential 30-homer slugger who’ll probably settle into a corner but for the time being runs well enough to have a chance in center. MLB.com’s report calls Rodriguez a “near carbon copy” of Eloy Jimenez at this same age, even down to hailing from the same city in the Dominican Republic and possessing a similarly aggressive approach. The Tigers will hope Rodriguez can do a better job of avoiding injuries, but Rodriguez possesses thunderous power — more so than any other player in this class.
  • Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez, SS, Giants: Badler and Romero both note that some scouts have graded De Jesus as the top prospect overall in this year’s class (Sasaki excluded). MLB.com indeed ranks him as the top non-Sasaki talent in the class. Listed at 5’11” and 175 pounds, the 17-year-old switch-hitter draws 70 grades for his speed (on the 20-80 scale) and also plus bat speed and the defensive tools required to convince scouts he can stick at shortstop. He’s landing a $3MM bonus from San Francisco, Badler reports.
  • Diego Tornes, OF, Braves: Tornes won’t turn 17 until July. He’s younger than many of the players in this year’s class but still received a $2.5MM bonus (per Badler) thanks to a projectable 6’4″, 200-pound frame that scouts think is a portent for plus power. He’s a switch-hitter who’s praised for plus bat speed and physicality that are well beyond some of his older peers on this year’s class. MLB.com feels he’ll eventually settle into an outfield corner, where he has an above-average arm and — at least at present — above-average speed.

MLBTR Podcast: The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

The Opener: International Free Agency, Sasaki, Burnes

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With less than a month until pitchers and catchers begin reporting for Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. International signing period opens:

The 2025 signing period for international amateurs has begun and will remain open until December 15. Teams have set bonus pools ranging from $7,555,500 to $5,146,200 for the upcoming period that they can allocate however they see fit — including trading bonus allotments in $250K increments. (A team can only acquire a maximum of 60% of its originally allotted pool, however.) The most highly-regarded prospects in the class have had handshake agreements in place with MLB clubs for years before they were old enough to sign, so for many players at the top of the class their destination is already known. Among the top prospects available are Dominican shortstop Josuar Gonzalez (tied to the Giants), Venezuelan-American shortstop/outfielder Andrew Salas (tied to the Marlins), Dominican shortstop Elian Peña (tied to the Mets) and Cuban outfielder Kevin Alvarez (tied to the Astros).

2. Sasaki officially eligible to sign:

Of course, the presence of right-hander Roki Sasaki, who was posted by NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines last month, is a major disrupting force in the current international class. Sasaki, 23, is regarded as among the most talented pitchers in the world and has four years of NPB experience under his belt already. Unlike the typical teenage prospects that come to the majors through the international amateur system, Sasaki is viewed as big league ready and could be a front-of-the-rotation starter in year one. Whoever ultimately signs Sasaki will likely use most if not all of their bonus pool in order to do so, which could force their more traditional international prospects to look for deals elsewhere.

He recently narrowed down his potential landing spots to three finalists: the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays. A poll of MLBTR readers yesterday suggests that the majority of fans expect him to sign in L.A., with nearly 52% voting for the Dodgers. The Padres have received 33% of the vote at the time of writing. Toronto lags behind at 15%. While Sasaki is officially eligible to sign as of today, he could wait another few days in order to give teams the opportunity to trade for additional dollars in their bonus pool. Sasaki must sign by Jan. 23, when his posting window comes to a close.

3. Burnes presser today:

The Diamondbacks are set to formally introduce right-hander Corbin Burnes at a press conference scheduled for 1pm local time this afternoon. Burnes surprised the baseball world last month by signing a six-year, $210MM guarantee with Arizona after weeks of rumors connecting him to the Giants and Blue Jays. He was nearly universally ranked as the top pitcher available in free agency this winter (aside from, perhaps, Sasaki) and should give the Snakes one of the most formidable rotations in baseball, joining Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt (and perhaps Jordan Montgomery, if he’s not traded). In addition to Burnes himself, principal owner Ken Kendrick and GM Mike Hazen are both set to be on hand for today’s press conference.

The Cardinals Are Amidst A Half-Measure Offseason

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The Cardinals have made zero trades this offseason. Two months ago, that would've been a huge surprise. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak declared at the end of the season that the team would cut MLB payroll and give consistent reps to younger players. Seven of MLBTR's Top 35 trade candidates entering the winter were Cardinals.

All of them remain Cardinals with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report. They're not all analogous situations. In at least three cases, the Cards themselves were probably taken aback. Willson Contreras told the team he had no interest in waiving his no-trade clause. Sonny Gray has also expressed an interest in staying rather than waiving his own no-trade rights. Nolan Arenado is reportedly more open to moving, though he used his no-trade clause to kill a potential trade to Houston.

Mozeliak has openly stated the organization is trying to deal Arenado. The baseball operations leader has called that the simplest way to get the team's payroll where they want it to be. That could still come together, but it has proven tougher to orchestrate than the front office seemingly envisioned. The Astros have already moved on. Other teams are reportedly balking at taking a big portion of the $64MM remaining on the third baseman's contract. Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote last week that talks on Arenado had stalled.

Those instances are beyond Mozeliak's control beyond the fact that he was willing to include no-trade clauses in Contreras' and Gray's free agent deals. (Arenado received his NTC from the Rockies when he signed his extension in 2019.) The front office probably expected those veterans would be eager to move rather than waiting out one or more transitional seasons. In that sense, the Cards are in an unenviable spot.

The most perplexing part of their offseason is that they haven't made any moves in response to those roadblocks. Their offseason has consisted of buying out Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton while claiming depth reliever Bailey Horn off waivers. That needs to change between now and Opening Day.

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J.P. France Targeting July Return From Shoulder Surgery

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Astros righty J.P. France underwent surgery to repair a capsule tear in his shoulder last July. There wasn’t much initial specificity about the timeline beyond the fact that it would end his 2024. France tells Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that the procedure came with a 12-14 month recovery window.

He’s now at roughly the halfway point. France tells McTaggart that he hasn’t encountered any setbacks thus far and hopes he’ll be on track for the earlier end of the rehab window. “I feel like the way it’s going right now, hopefully I’m looking more about the 12-month mark, so that will be me [back] in July. Hopefully that’s the case,” France said. “There’s a fine line because it’s a shoulder surgery and you’re not trying to rush it back, either.” He tells McTaggart that he began a throwing program last month and will progress to working from 90 feet this week.

Even the earlier end of France’s timeline means he’s likely to be shelved until around the All-Star Break. He figures to land on the 60-day injured list if the team needs to opens a 40-man roster spot in Spring Training. In an ideal scenario, France could bolster the team’s rotation depth as they’re weighing whether to buy at the trade deadline.

France was a capable back-end starter during his 2023 rookie season. He overcame a middling 17.4% strikeout rate to post a 3.83 earned run average through 136 1/3 innings. Opponents teed off during his five starts early in the ’24 campaign. France posted a 7.46 ERA over 25 1/3 innings before Houston optioned him to Triple-A. Between that and the injury, he has dropped down the rotation depth chart.

Cristian Javier and France are locks to open the season on the IL. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are more borderline candidates to return by Opening Day. The Astros are set to begin the year with a front four of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Swingman Hayden Wesneski would probably be the fifth starter if Garcia and McCullers are unavailable. Colton Gordon and Ryan Gusto, neither of whom has pitched in the majors, are also on the 40-man roster.

Latest On Alex Bregman’s Market

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Alex Bregman remains unsigned with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Bregman won’t be returning to the Astros after rejecting a reported six-year, $156MM offer that led Houston to pivot to an Isaac Paredes/Christian Walker corner infield tandem.

Early in the offseason, it seemed Bregman and his representation at the Boras Corporation were seeking to eclipse the $200MM mark. Whether that’s still the goal isn’t clear, though it stands to reason that some teams are hopeful he could move off a lofty ask as he lingers on the open market.

To that end, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score writes that the Cubs recently had “casual” conversations with Boras about Bregman. Levine suggests that the Cubs aren’t interested in offering a long-term deal. It seems they’re on the periphery of the market in case the two-time All-Star considers a shorter term with opt-out clauses. There’s nothing to suggest Bregman is currently willing to do so, however.

Chicago traded Paredes as the centerpiece of the Kyle Tucker blockbuster. Top prospect Matt Shaw is the favorite for the third base job. Shaw combined for a huge .284/.379/.488 slash with 21 homers and 31 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A last season. Giving him the starting job would be justifiable, but there’s no guarantee that even a prospect of Shaw’s caliber hits the ground running against big league pitching. The Cubs don’t really have a capable fallback in case Shaw falters. Vidal Bruján, Luis Vázquez and Rule 5 pick Gage Workman are the backup infielders on the 40-man roster.

Bregman would provide a much higher floor. He popped 26 homers with a .260/.315/.453 line in his final season in Houston. Bregman remained an All-Star caliber player despite taking dramatically fewer walks than he had in his previous six seasons. He’s entering his age-31 season, so while it’s understandable if teams are reluctant to commit six or seven years, Bregman shouldn’t be in danger of any kind of immediate drop-off.

The Cubs have sat out the top of the market for consecutive offseasons. They haven’t made a nine-figure investment since committing $177MM to Dansby Swanson over the 2022-23 winter. Chicago was never a factor on Juan Soto, nor did they seemingly have any interest in playing at the top of the starting pitching market. They’ve been loosely linked to Jack Flaherty, though it appears they’re similarly waiting on the fringe of the market in case a buy-low opportunity presents itself. The Cubs have roughly $198MM in luxury tax commitments, according to the RosterResource calculations, putting them more than $40MM shy of the base threshold.

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