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Tigers Select Matt Gage

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The Tigers announced that they have selected left-hander Matt Gage to their roster. In a corresponding active roster move, right-hander Beau Brieske has been optioned to Triple-A Toledo. To open a 40-man spot, righty Jackson Jobe has been transferred to the 60-day injured list. It was reported yesterday that Jobe will require Tommy John surgery.

Gage, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Tigers in the offseason. He has been pitching for Toledo so far this year with good results. He has logged 32 1/3 innings over 23 appearances, having allowed 1.67 earned runs per nine. His 22.8% strikeout rate and 42.9% ground ball rate are both around average while his 3.3% walk rate is excellent.

That performance will get him back up to the big leagues for the first time in a couple of years. He logged 19 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays and Astros in 2022 and 2023, posting a 1.83 ERA. But his 2024 saw him in plenty of transactions without getting into a big league game. The Astros put him on waivers in January. The Yankees claimed him but then flipped him to the Dodgers in February. The Dodgers released him but then re-signed him to a minor league deal. He triggered an opt-out clause and was added back to the 40-man roster but then flipped to the Mets. The Mets briefly recalled him to the majors but didn’t put him into a game.

Around all those transactions, he tossed 41 2/3 innings in the minors with a 4.10 ERA. The Mets outrighted him off their roster in November, which allowed him to elect free agency and sign with the Tigers. His major league track record is fairly limited but he has usually been good in the minors. From 2021 to the present, he has a 3.43 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate in 199 1/3 innings on the farm.

The Tigers will give him a shot at facing big league hitters again but he is out of options, so his hold on a roster spot may be tenuous. For now, he’ll give the Tigers a third lefty in the bullpen alongside Tyler Holton and Brant Hurter.

Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images

Jackson Jobe To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Tigers right-hander Jackson Jobe will undergo Tommy John surgery. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press was among those to relay the news. He’ll miss the remainder of his season and possibly all of 2026 as well. He is already on the 15-day injured list but will be transferred to the 60-day IL whenever the Tigers need to open a roster spot.

The news is obviously brutal for both Jobe and the Tigers. Jobe, third overall pick of the 2021 draft, was one of the top pitching prospects in the league as he climbed the minor league ladder. The Tigers called him up late last year to factor into their postseason run even though he was only 21 years old. He got to make two regular season appearances and then two more in the postseason.

He came into this year as a member of the rotation. He wasn’t exactly dominant, with a 4.22 earned run average, 17.9% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate through ten starts. However, that’s a small sample of work and he’s also still quite young.

It’s also possible, in the wake of this news, that he wasn’t fully healthy. His velocity was down in his final start and the Tigers placed him on the 15-day IL a couple of weeks ago with a flexor strain. Now it seems the determination has been made that he’ll need to go under the knife. Tommy John surgery usually requires 14 to 18 months of rehab. Given that window, Jobe will miss the remainder of the year and a return in the second half of 2026 can’t be guaranteed either.

For Jobe, it’s obviously a gut punch for him to lose most of his age-22 season and potentially all of his age-23 campaign. For the Tigers, they are going to lose almost two whole seasons of their six-year window with Jobe.

They will have to proceed without him in their plans for the foreseeable future. Their current rotation consists of Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Keider Montero and Sawyer Gipson-Long. They could get Alex Cobb into the mix soon, as he’s currently on a rehab assignment. Reese Olson is out with a finger issue that doesn’t seem terribly serious. Jose Urquidy had Tommy John surgery around this time last year and could be a factor later in the year. Ty Madden has a rotation cuff strain and could also return from the IL later this year.

Most of that group will be in the mix for the 2026 rotation as well. Cobb is the only one fully slated for free agency. Flaherty has a player option for 2026 and could decide to return to the open market. The Tigers have a club option for Urquidy’s services for next year. It’s also possible that the Tigers change this picture via trades ahead of this year’s deadline.

Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images.

Tigers Place Jackson Jobe On IL With Flexor Strain

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The Tigers announced that they have placed right-hander Jackson Jobe on the 15-day injured list due to a grade 1 flexor strain in his right elbow. Righty Dylan Smith was selected to take his place on the roster, a move that was previously reported. Righty Alex Cobb was transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot for Smith.

The news on Jobe doesn’t completely come out of nowhere. After Wednesday’s game, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press noted that Jobe’s velocity was down a bit. Jobe wasn’t in the clubhouse to talk to reporters after the game and the Tigers even closed the clubhouse while reporters were waiting to speak to him within an hour of the game ending, which Petzold noted was a violation of MLB club and media regulations. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for how much time they expect Jobe to miss, though it’s always at least somewhat concerning when a pitcher’s throwing elbow is injured.

Either way, this IL stint interrupts his first extended look in the big leagues. A former third overall pick and one of the top prospects in baseball, he hasn’t quite hit his stride in the majors yet. He made a brief debut late last year and earned a rotation job here in 2025. He has made ten starts this year with a 4.22 earned run average, 17.9% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate and 43.2% ground ball rate.

Those aren’t exactly dominant numbers but Jobe is still quite young. He won’t even celebrate his 23rd birthday until July. The fact that he’s in the majors at all at this age is a testament to his talent. There’s still lots of time for him to fully break out and the injury perhaps provides an explanation for why he hasn’t quite been firing on all cylinders yet.

For now, the Tigers will have to fill his rotation spot. Chris McCosky of Detroit News suggests that Sawyer Gipson-Long is a likely candidate to take over for Jobe. Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April of last year. He is now healthy enough to have made five rehab starts, getting to 5 1/3 innings in his most recent outing. Prior to going under the knife, he made four starts for the Tigers in 2023 with a 2.70 ERA. He is on the 60-day IL so the Tigers would need to open a 40-man spot if he is to be reinstated in the coming days.

As for Cobb, this move doesn’t impact his timeline. His 60-day count is retroactive to his initial placement on the 15-day IL. Since he’s already been on the shelf more than 60 days, he’s eligible to be reinstated at any time. Dan Hasty, broadcaster for the High-A West Michigan Whitecaps, relays that Cobb is expected to start a rehab assignment with that club tonight. Cobb will surely need a few weeks of ramp-up after missing so much time. He’s been out all year due to right hip inflammation.

Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images.

The Tigers’ Rotation Camp Battle

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The Tigers expected to enter Spring Training with four rotation spots secured. Jack Flaherty’s surprisingly quiet market allowed Detroit to reinstall him as the #2 starter behind Tarik Skubal. Righty Reese Olson filled that role down the stretch last year after the Tigers traded Flaherty to Los Angeles. Free agent signee Alex Cobb would’ve had a mid-rotation role in his own right.

It didn’t take long for an injury to intervene. Cobb is battling inflammation in his right hip, which is likely to lead to a season-opening injured list stint. It’s an alarming start to his Detroit tenure, as the veteran righty missed a good portion of last year rehabbing a 2023 labrum repair in his opposite hip.

What had been a camp battle for one spot expands to a competition for two vacancies. Detroit has a handful of recognizable names — including a few one-time top prospects who are still looking to establish themselves — in the mix for those jobs behind the Skubal/Flaherty/Olson top three.

Jackson Jobe

Aside from Roki Sasaki, the 22-year-old Jobe may currently be the sport’s most talented pitching prospect. Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, and MLB Pipeline each placed him as their #2 pitching prospect. Keith Law of The Athletic ranks Jobe as the #1 pitching prospect — Law excluded Sasaki from his ranking based on the latter’s NPB experience — while Eric Longehagen of FanGraphs had Jobe behind Sasaki and Andrew Painter.

Evaluators agree that Jobe has top-of-the-rotation ceiling. He’s the most exciting player in this group, but he’s far from a lock to break camp. The 6’2″ righty’s MLB experience consists of four relief appearances — two apiece in the regular season and playoffs — last fall. He has started all of two Triple-A games.

Jobe spent most of last season at Double-A Erie, where he turned in a 2.36 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate but walked nearly 13% of opposing hitters. He missed two months because of a hamstring strain. Last year’s 91 2/3 innings nevertheless represented the most he’s thrown in a professional season. Even if he breaks camp, he’s unlikely to make 30+ starts and top 150 innings. The Tigers surely don’t want to burn him out early in the year. Jobe still has a full slate of options and could begin the year with Triple-A Toledo.

Casey Mize

The first overall pick in 2018, Mize is now a few seasons removed from being one of the game’s top pitching prospects. The 27-year-old’s body of work has been decent but underwhelming relative to expectations. Mize pitched to a 3.71 ERA over 30 starts in 2021, his first full season. Tommy John surgery essentially cost him the next two years. The Auburn product returned to action with a 4.49 ERA across 102 1/3 frames last year. He showed plus control and got a lot of ground-balls but managed only a 17.3% strikeout rate.

Mize hasn’t missed many bats and gave up a lot of hard contact last season. He’s still sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball, but none of his top four offerings (four-seam, slider, splitter, sinker) got especially strong results last year. It looks like he’s trending towards a fifth/sixth starter role. Mize still has a full slate of options, but he’s 61 days away from reaching five years of service time. At that point, he cannot be sent to the minors without his approval. He’s making $2.34MM and under arbitration control for another year beyond this one.

Kenta Maeda

The Tigers inked Maeda to a two-year, $24MM free agent deal last winter. It looked like a good value at the time, but the veteran righty had a terrible first season in the Motor City. Maeda allowed more than six earned runs per nine across 112 1/3 innings. He struck out just 19.8% of batters faced, a huge drop from the 27.3% mark he’d posted during his final season with the Twins. His home run rate climbed for the fourth consecutive season.

Maeda lost his rotation spot last July. He worked in long relief until the final weekend of the season, when he picked up a spot start after Detroit had punched its postseason ticket. Detroit left him off their playoff rosters. While Maeda was essentially a non-factor by season’s end, president of baseball operations Scott Harris said early in the offseason that the Tigers would give him another chance to earn a rotation spot out of camp. The Tigers kept him on the roster all offseason, suggesting they’re still holding out some hope that they’ll get something positive from what’ll be a $10MM investment this year. Maeda can’t be sent to the minors, so if he doesn’t win a rotation spot, he’ll either head back to long relief or be a release candidate.

Brant Hurter

A seventh-round pick in 2021, Hurter made his MLB debut last August. The 6’6″ lefty came out of the bullpen for all but one of his 10 appearances. He averaged 4.5 innings per appearance, though, so he was more or less operating as a bulk arm who generally followed an opener. Hurter had a strong debut, pitching to a 2.58 earned run average through 45 1/3 frames. He struck out 21.7% of batters faced against a 3.4% walk rate while getting grounders at an excellent 53.1% clip.

Hurter leans most heavily on a sinker that sits in the 92 MPH range. That pitch gets a lot of grounders but rarely misses bats. He showed more swing-and-miss potential with a low-80s breaking ball. Hurter recorded a lot of strikeouts up through Double-A. Hitters started putting the ball in play much more frequently at the top minor league level. There’s volatility with that approach, which is demonstrated by the 5.80 ERA which Hurter posted across 19 Triple-A appearances (18 starts). The Tigers could have some questions about how his arsenal would play against right-handed hitters, in particular, if he works as a traditional starter.

Keider Montero

Detroit added Montero to their 40-man roster during the 2023-24 offseason. They called him up for the first time late last May. The 24-year-old righty took the ball 19 times (including 16 starts) and worked 98 1/3 innings of 4.76 ERA ball as a rookie. The underlying marks weren’t great. His 18.7% strikeout rate and 9.4% swinging strike percentage were each a few points below average. He surrendered more than 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Montero’s 7.5% walk rate was fine and his fastball sat in the 94-95 MPH range, but his rookie year was mostly a struggle.

Montero has missed more bats in his minor league career, albeit with shakier control than he showed in his MLB action. He struck out 24.1% of opponents across 13 Triple-A starts. A walk rate north of 13% contributed to an unimpressive 5.03 ERA over 48 1/3 frames. Montero still has two option years and can bounce between Detroit and Toledo. While he has been a starter throughout his professional career, perhaps there’d be some intrigue in seeing how his stuff plays in a relief role.

Matt Manning

Manning, 27, is another former top 10 pick and top prospect in this mix. The 6’6″ righty has made 50 career starts over the past four seasons. He carries a 4.43 ERA across 254 innings. As with Mize, he has shown decent control but struggled to miss bats (16.4% strikeout rate). Manning fell fairly far down the depth chart last season. He only made five major league appearances while taking the ball 15 times for Toledo. He posted a 4.28 ERA while striking out a quarter of batters faced over 69 1/3 minor league innings. He battled a lat injury in the second half and was sidelined from around the All-Star Break until the middle of September.

This will be Manning’s final option year if he spends at least 20 days in the minors. He’s on track to qualify for arbitration next winter. It’s approaching make-or-break territory if he’s going to carve out a significant role in Detroit.

Ty Madden

Madden reached the majors for the first time last August. The Texas product had a limited role as a rookie. He pitched to a 4.30 earned run average with a 16.8% strikeout rate across 23 innings. Madden missed a lot more bats in the minors, where he punched out 28.3% of opposing hitters over 22 starts. That was about the only positive from his minor league numbers, though. Madden allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine. He gave up way too many home runs and walked nearly 10% of batters faced.

Baseball America ranked Madden as the #18 prospect in the Detroit system this winter. The outlet writes that his four-pitch mix and command are fringy. The stuff has been good enough to get whiffs against minor league hitters, but he’s probably ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season.

Tigers To Promote Jackson Jobe

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The Tigers announced that pitching prospect Jackson Jobe will be selected to the roster prior to tomorrow’s game. He will pitch out of the bullpen and right-hander Shelby Miller will be designated for assignment as the corresponding move, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press on X.

It’s been a wild season for the Tigers. They were a bit below .500 for a lot of the summer and ultimately acted as straightforward sellers at the deadline. They flipped out impending veteran free agents Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin, Mark Canha and Carson Kelly.

With two months left to go in the season, they gave playing time to their younger players, looking to see who would step forward and take on roles in 2025 and beyond. But the results have been so positive that the club has resurrected what looked like a lost season. They have gone 30-17 over August and September as other American League clubs have scuffled. As of today, the Tigers and Royals are tied for the final two Wild Card spots with the Twins one game back and the Mariners two games back.

With one week left and the Tigers looking to put the finishing touches on their improbable comeback, they are willing to consider all options for strengthening their club, which apparently includes calling up one of the top prospects in baseball.

Jobe, now 22, was selected third overall in the 2021 draft. Going into 2022, he hadn’t yet made his professional debut but was already considered one of the top prospects in the league, as Baseball America ranked him #79 overall at that time. He didn’t post amazing results immediately. He made 18 starts at Single-A to begin his career, logging 61 2/3 innings. He struck out 26.3% of batters faced and walked 9% but allowed 12 home runs, leading to a 4.52 ERA. He was promoted to High-A for three starts to finish the year with better results, posting a 1.15 ERA in those.

In 2023, inflammation in his lower back prevented him from getting into a game until the middle of June, but he performed well from there. He tossed 64 innings across multiple levels with a 2.81 ERA, 32.6% strikeout rate and miniscule walk rate of 2.3%. Here in 2024, he has thrown 91 2/3 innings, again across multiple levels. He has a 2.36 ERA in those 21 starts, striking out 25.6% of batters faced but walking 12%.

The strong results have boosted his prospect stock. Baseball America currently ranks him second overall, behind only Roman Anthony of the Red Sox. MLB Pipeline has him #6 and FanGraphs #15. ESPN ranked him #9 last month while Keith Law of The Athletic put him at #10 in July. He sits in the mid to high 90s with his fastball and has a slider/sweeper that is considered his best pitch, as well as featuring a changeup and cutter.

Jobe is considered a potential future ace but will join the club’s relief mix for now. That’s understandable since his workload this year is already a personal high and thrusting an inexperienced guy into a rotation role in the middle of a tight playoff race could lead to unknown results. However, it’s also worth noting that the Tigers haven’t been deploying a traditional pitching staff of late, using a lot of openers followed by bulk guys to strong results. Though Jobe will be working as a reliever, it’s entirely possible that manager A.J. Hinch could give him lots of innings if that seems to be the best course of action.

Exactly how and when the club lets Jobe loose remains to be seen, but it’s an intriguing development for the final week of the regular season and perhaps into the playoffs. If the Tigers hold on to play in October, Jobe should be eligible to participate. If a player is in an organization but not on a 40-man roster prior to September, they are often granted an exception by the commissioner to be postseason eligible.

Jobe won’t have enough time to exhaust his rookie status here in 2024, so the Tigers will be able to keep prospect promotion incentives on the table for 2025. Per the collective bargaining agreement, top prospects can earn their clubs extra draft picks if they are promoted for a full year of service and meet certain awards voting criteria. If Jobe is able to secure a rotation job out of the gate in 2025, that could be in play next year. He’ll be competing for a gig next to Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Keider Montero, Brant Hurter, Kenta Maeda and others.

Miller, 33, signed with the Tigers in the offseason on a one-year deal with a $3MM guarantee, club option and incentives. That investment hasn’t paid off especially well for the club. He has tossed 55 2/3 innings this year with a 4.53 ERA, 21.8% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. He seems to have fallen out of favor, only pitching twice since September 6 and not at all since September 17.

The Tigers will put him on waivers in the coming days but there will be little incentive for any club to claim him. He won’t be postseason eligible for any other team and the regular season is almost done. He’s an impending free agent so there’s no long-term benefit. If he clears waivers, he would have the right to elect free agency. He accept an outright assignment and hope for a postseason opportunity to open up, as Carlos Carrasco just did with the Guardians, or perhaps he will simply decide to get his offseason started ahead of schedule.

Big Hype Prospects: Manzardo, Tiedemann, Jobe, Scott, DeLauter

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The Arizona Fall League has concluded, putting a final wrap on the 2023 season. The Surprise Saguaros took home the hardware – not that that means anything to most readers. Jakob Marsee managed to sneak by Offensive Player of the Year James Triantos for the top OPS and MVP honors. Liam Hicks took home the batting title. Twin sluggers Kala’i Rosario and Aaron Sabato shared the home run title. Ricky Tiedemann won the AFL Pitcher of the Year award over Davis Daniel. Additional awards can be viewed here.

Listed stats are from the AFL.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE
101 PA, 6 HR, .272/.340/.565

Manzardo finished the campaign on a strong note. He reached base three times in the championship game and homered twice in the semi-final while leading a nine-run comeback. The 2023 season represented a small step back in Manzardo’s prospect status. Due to an extreme fly ball approach, he struggled to reach base on balls in play. While no slouch in the power department, his exit velocities hovered around league average. His peripherals show evidence of a post-trade adjustment, although I do not know the specifics of that adjustment. We might be looking at a small sample quirk.

Ricky Tiedemann, 21, SP, TOR
18 IP, 12 H, 8 BB, 23 K, 2.50 ERA

After missing a large chunk of the 2023 season, Tiedemann was on hand in Arizona for just four starts. He made the most of them, showing enough to take home a closely-contested award. Tiedemann spent most of his active time at Double-A where he made 11 starts totaling just 32 innings. He missed bats with ease but struggled at times with command – an issue which followed him to the Fall League. He features a repertoire of three plus offerings including a mid-90s fastball, a sweeper, and a changeup.

Jackson Jobe, 21, P, DET
15.2 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 19 K, 2.87 ERA

The next-highest profile pitching prospect in fall ball, Jobe nearly matched Tiedemann over his four-start run. Jobe works with a deep repertoire of at least five average or better offerings. He’s credited with a head for pitching including a professional-level feel for incorporating analytic analysis into his development. After tasting one start at Double-A this season, he’s on track for a Major League promotion sometime in 2024.

Victor Scott, 22, OF, STL
96 PA, 3 HR, 18 SB, .286/.388/.417

A speedy left-handed hitter, Scott turned heads in the AFL via an advanced feel for contact. He was one of only a handful of hitters who recorded more walks than strikeouts. Thought he has posted above average batting lines throughout his brief minor league tenure, scouts complain of a low-impact swing that might prove exploitable against upper-level pitching. Scott’s path to the Majors likely looks something like Johan Rojas – a defense-first profile with the speed and contact chops necessary to post an empty batting average.

Chase DeLauter, 22, OF, CLE
101 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .299/.385/.529

DeLauter is my pick for most intriguing player to participate in the AFL. His swing is an acquired taste – at first visually disturbing, but then it grows on you. Like Scott, DeLauter recorded more walks than strikeouts, a feat that fits right in with the Guardians hitting ethos. He also led the league in RBI. He will have an opportunity to approach the Majors next season, but he needs to prove he can get to power outcomes more consistently in order to get the call.

Three More

Oliver Dunn, PHI (26): A non-prospect coming off a strong Double-A campaign, Dunn likely played his way onto a 40-man roster this fall. He’s Rule 5 eligible so the Phillies will have to roster him or prepare to watch him be drafted. Dunn posted a 1.071 OPS – fourth-best in the league to go with 12 extra-base hits and 12 steals in 88 plate appearances.

Caleb Durbin, NYY (23): An Altuve-scale second baseman, Durbin led the AFL with 21 steals in 23 attempts. He also posted a 1.044 OPS, good for sixth-best in the league. He even delivered a trio of home runs to go with nine doubles and a triple in 99 plate appearances. He recorded twice as many walks as strikeouts. Durbin was arguably the most dynamic offensive performer in the AFL.

Damiano Palmegiani, TOR (23): Palmegiani was already ticketed for a role with the 2024 Blue Jays. With six home runs and 21 RBI in 92 plate appearances, he was one of the top-performing power hitters in the league. Pending offseason activity, he’s primed to compete for an Opening Day assignment.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Merrill, Jobe, Chourio, Crow-Armstrong

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Big Jackson Prospects is back with another edition starring members of the new Jackson Four.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 490 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .333/.451/.517

Holliday is the top-performing minor leaguer among players with more than 400 plate appearances. His 168 wRC+ is all the more impressive when considering his age relative to his competition. The question now on everyone’s lips – will he make his Major League debut this year? To me, that will depend on how he does in the next few weeks. One factor is outside of his control: will the Orioles have an injury to open a playoff roster spot for him? He’s likelier to get a taste of the Majors if he’s expected to contribute to the playoff push.

To date, Holliday has relied on hard, low-angle contact and high BABIPs to fuel his offensive success. Such an approach tends to be less effective in the Majors. At Triple-A, we’ll get our first public look at his exit velocities. I’ve heard some rumors but haven’t gotten my hands on the actual data yet.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (AA)
(A+/AA) 488 PA, 15 HR, 15 SB, .283/.331/.454

Merrill is having a nice time of it in Double-A. He was reportedly considered for a promotion to the Majors about 10 days back. The Padres seemingly decided against the aggressive move. As it stands, he’s positioned himself to skip a return engagement in Double-A next season. As to where he fits in the Padres long-term plans, he might need to wait for Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth to open the door at second base. The FanGraphs prospect crew described Merrill as “Michael Brantley, except at shortstop,” and that’s exactly how he’s trending.

Jackson Jobe, 20, SP, DET (A+)
(A+) 30 IP, 12.30 K/9, 0.90 BB/9, 3.90 ERA

Jobe is a spin-rate boss with four average or better offerings. His weapons have allowed him to live in the strike zone in the low minors. A test in Double-A to open 2024 should help with the development of his command. Encouragingly, the Tigers are using Jobe like a traditional starter down the stretch. Since reaching High-A, he’s faced 20 or more batters in four of six outings. Compare that to other top pitching prospects around the league. Jobe hasn’t pitched much since he was drafted in 2021. It’s possible we see him finish out his season in the Arizona Fall League.

Jackson Chourio, 19, OF, MIL (AA)
(AA) 509 PA, 21 HR, 37 SB, .282/.336/.471

One of the few upper-echelon prospects younger than Holliday, Chourio has spent the entire season in Double-A where he’s held his own against much older competition. He’s been particularly effective of late, delivering four home runs and a .998 OPS in his last 45 plate appearances. Anyone hoping to see him promoted into the NL Central playoff race shouldn’t hold their breath. His defensive skills remain a work in progress. While he has the raw tools to stick in center field, his reads are still inconsistent. Were his glove ahead of his bat, he’d have a better case for a cheeky late-season promotion.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 21, OF, CHC (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 474 PA, 18 HR, 35 SB, .278/.364/.499

Unlike Chourio, Crow-Armstrong’s impressive defensive ability must be weighing heavy on the playoff-aspiring Cubs. Though they’ve gotten good results from Mike Tauchman, that feels more like found money than a sustainable source of production. A promotion for Crow-Armstrong would be a lock if not for one bugaboo – a 30.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A. There’s considerable swing-and-miss to PCA’s game. He has pop, emerging discipline, and plenty of speed to make up for his lack of contact. There are some roster considerations working against Crow-Armstrong since he’s not Rule 5 eligible until after 2024. If the Central battle remains close come mid-month, I expect to see him.

Three More

Ronny Mauricio, NYM (22): In just 11 plate appearances, Mauricio has already delivered the Mets hardest-hit ball of 2023. There’s no question the switch-hitter shoots lasers. The issue is whether or not he makes enough contact to sustain a regular role. Though athletic, he’s not known for his defensive ability.

Emmet Sheehan, LAD (23): In the wake of today’s news, Sheehan has elevated importance for a Dodgers club with only two veteran starters. In limited action, he hasn’t had confidence in his changeup. He needs that to be his moneymaker. Below-average command hints at a relief future.

Masyn Winn, STL (21): When we covered Winn at the time of his promotion, we noted the bat didn’t seem ready despite a broad base of skills. He’s struggled to a 6 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances. Winn appears to be making a classic first-timer mistake – selling out for any contact at the expense of quality contact. He still has a dozen ways to grow into an average or better player.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Tigers Prospects Jackson Jobe, Dillon Dingler Facing Significant Absences

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The Tigers today announced a number of injury updates on some of the minor league players, with Evan Woodbery of MLive.com among those to relay the info (Twitter links). Per the release, right-hander Jackson Jobe has lumbar spine inflammation and will be sidelined for three-to-six months. Meanwhile, catcher Dillon Dingler received a meniscectomy on his right knee and will be in rehab for the next four weeks before starting a return to play progression.

Jobe, 20, was the club’s first round pick in 2021, getting selected third overall that year. He spent last year between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, posting a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings. Based on his draft pedigree and strong professional debut, he is currently considered the club’s top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.

Jobe wasn’t going to be a factor for the Tigers here in 2023, as he still has yet to reach Double-A and only made three starts at Class-A Advanced last year. However, it’s surely not ideal for him to miss most or perhaps all of a year that would have otherwise been spent developing his skills. It’s also notable as it continues an incredibly frustrating run of poor health for the club’s top young pitchers. One year ago, the Tigers were set to head into the season with a rotation headlined by homegrown starters like Matt Manning, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, with Jobe headlining the next wave. Instead, Mize made just two starts last year before requiring Tommy John surgery, Skubal went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery and was recently placed on the 60-day injured list, while Manning was held back by various ailments and only made 12 starts last year.

Dingler, 24, was a second round pick of the Tigers in 2020 and has been generally considered to be one of the club’s top 10 prospects in the years since, with his defense earning especially high praise. Last year, he played 107 games at Double-A, hitting 14 home runs in that time. He struck out in 31.9% of his plate appearances but also drew walks at a 10% clip. His .238/.333/.419 batting line amounted to a 107 wRC+, indicating he was 7% better than the league average hitter.

Dingler went to the Arizona Fall League at the end of last year but was shut down after four games due to knee soreness. He’ll now have to miss the next four weeks before he can even start to ramp up towards returning to action. His prospect stock isn’t considered quite as high as Jobe’s but it’s still another blow to the club’s farm. He still hasn’t reached Triple-A and was looking up a catching corps of Eric Haase, Jake Rogers and Donny Sands. He might not have factored into the 2023 plans but he is Rule 5 eligible this coming winter and will miss some crucial time between now and then.

Since neither of these two players were likely to make an immediate jump to the big leagues this season, today’s news isn’t going to have a huge impact the near-term fortunes of the club. However, the Tigers aren’t expected to compete this season after a 66-96 campaign last year. Given that they are future-focused at the moment, these two injuries bring some more frustration to a franchise that has had much of it lately.

Central Notes: Kuhnel, Reds, Tigers, Moreno, Jobe

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In 2019, right-hander Joel Kuhnel threw 53 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with an ERA of 2.18, strikeout rate of 23.3% and walk rate of 7.4%. Just 24 years old at the time, he also made his MLB debut that year, logging 9 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build off that strong campaign, with injuries hampering him over the subsequent two years. In 2020, a shoulder issue limited him to just three big league innings. Due to the pandemic wiping out the minors, those are the only innings on his ledger that year. He underwent surgery to repair a torn capsule in his right shoulder in October of 2020 and was outrighted off the roster, then was rehabbing for much of 2021, throwing eight minor league innings on the year.

Kuhnel is now getting geared up in spring training for 2022, since he is not on Cincy’s 40-man roster and not affected by the lockout. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com checked in with the 27-year-old as he tries to get back on track. “Everything feels normal,” Kuhnel said. “It feels better than ever, really.” The Reds’ bullpen didn’t do them many favors in 2021, as their 4.99 ERA ranked 27th in baseball, only beating out the non-competitive Diamondbacks, Nationals and Orioles. Advanced metrics were a bit kinder, but not by much, with Reds’ relievers putting up a 4.56 FIP and 4.34 xFIP. The club has been rumored to be cutting payroll this offseason, making it unlikely they bolster their staff with a big free agent splash. That means that improvement from internal options like Kuhnel will be important for them as they try to walk a fine line of keeping spending down but staying competitive.

Some other Central notes…

  • Chris McCoskey of The Detroit News is at the Tigers’ spring training facility, even if none of the players on the 40-man roster are. One player in camp that caught his eye is Gerson Moreno, who was selected to the club’s roster after the 2017 season. 22 years old at the time, Moreno lasted just a few months on the roster as he required Tommy John surgery. The Tigers released and re-signed him in the summer of 2018. His rehab period wiped out most of his 2018 and 2019, then the pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020. Last year, Moreno was finally able to get some significant time on the mound, throwing 49 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His 4.59 ERA doesn’t jump out, but his 33.2% strikeout rate is excellent. It does, however, come with an elevated 13.2% walk rate. The Tigers spent big already this offseason to upgrade their rotation and lineup with Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez but haven’t made a big move in the bullpen. If the 26-year-old Moreno can take a step forward, he could give them a boost from within.
  • Other than Eduardo Rodriguez, the Tigers’ rotation consists of hurlers they drafted and developed: Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and Tyler Alexander. The next guy behind them on that path is Jackson Jobe, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Selected by the Tigers with the third overall pick in last year’s draft, Jobe is just 19 years old and isn’t close to the majors, but is already drawing rave reviews. MLB Pipeline ranks him the 46th-best prospect in baseball and Baseball America places him in the 79th spot. Petzold spoke to one scout, who had nothing but superlatives to offer about the right-hander, giving Jobe’s fastball and changeup 70s and his breaking ball an 80, on the 20-80 scouting scale. Jobe is still quite young, meaning Tigers fans will need to be patient, but the scout offers this as the ceiling: “If everything lines up, he’s the No. 1 starter in the big leagues on a championship team.”

Tigers Sign Jackson Jobe, Izaac Pacheco

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The Tigers announced Friday that they’ve signed No. 3 overall draft  pick Jackson Jobe and No. 39 overall pick Izaac Pacheco. That pair of signings comes just a few days after the Tigers locked up No. 32 overall pick Ty Madden. Jobe received a $6.9MM bonus that clocks in $322K under slot, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter links). He adds that Pacheco signed for a $2.75MM that is about $850K over slot.

Jobe, a high school right-hander out of Oklahoma, was something of a surprise pick to many onlookers. He’s regarded as having one of the highest ceilings in the draft and drew praise as the top high-school pitcher in this year’s class, but prep pitchers have a particularly high attrition rate as prospects, so there’s some risk to the selection.

That said, it’s also easy to see why the Tigers were so drawn to him. Jobe ranked seventh on the pre-draft rankings at ESPN and at MLB.com, eighth at Baseball America and FanGraphs, and 16th at The Athletic. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote that Jobe “might be the best prep pitching prospect in years.” The righty draws 60 to 70 grades (on the 20-80 scale) on three different pitches. Listed at 6’2″ and 190 pounds presently, Jobe was also his high school team’s shortstop and is regarded as an excellent all-around athlete. The history of high school pitchers in the first round, particularly right-handers, isn’t great — but Jobe himself is a highly appealing prospect.

Pacheco, meanwhile, checked in at No. 22 at The Athletic, No. 30 at MLB.com, No. 36 at BA, No. 52 at ESPN and No. 65 at FanGraphs. He’s played shortstop in high school and was committed to Texas A&M. Most scouting reports on him feel he’ll settle in as a power-hitting third base prospect, which isn’t a huge surprise for an 18-year-old already listed at 6’4″ and 225 pounds. MLB.com’s report suggests that he could have more raw power than any left-handed hitter in the draft.

The Tigers have saved a bit of money on Jobe and some down-the-board picks (rounds four, five, six and eight, specifically). Those savings don’t quite balance out the over-slot deals for Madden and Pacheco, but the team could still save a bit  of money on some of its yet-unsigned selections. It’s also worth remembering that they can exceed their bonus pool by up to five percent before being penalized with the loss of future picks. Detroit had the second-largest bonus pool at $14,253,800 total, so they could exceed that pool by up to $712K. Given that flexibility, they should be able to sign the rest of their picks without much issue.

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