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Tigers Prospects Jackson Jobe, Dillon Dingler Facing Significant Absences

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The Tigers today announced a number of injury updates on some of the minor league players, with Evan Woodbery of MLive.com among those to relay the info (Twitter links). Per the release, right-hander Jackson Jobe has lumbar spine inflammation and will be sidelined for three-to-six months. Meanwhile, catcher Dillon Dingler received a meniscectomy on his right knee and will be in rehab for the next four weeks before starting a return to play progression.

Jobe, 20, was the club’s first round pick in 2021, getting selected third overall that year. He spent last year between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, posting a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings. Based on his draft pedigree and strong professional debut, he is currently considered the club’s top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.

Jobe wasn’t going to be a factor for the Tigers here in 2023, as he still has yet to reach Double-A and only made three starts at Class-A Advanced last year. However, it’s surely not ideal for him to miss most or perhaps all of a year that would have otherwise been spent developing his skills. It’s also notable as it continues an incredibly frustrating run of poor health for the club’s top young pitchers. One year ago, the Tigers were set to head into the season with a rotation headlined by homegrown starters like Matt Manning, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, with Jobe headlining the next wave. Instead, Mize made just two starts last year before requiring Tommy John surgery, Skubal went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery and was recently placed on the 60-day injured list, while Manning was held back by various ailments and only made 12 starts last year.

Dingler, 24, was a second round pick of the Tigers in 2020 and has been generally considered to be one of the club’s top 10 prospects in the years since, with his defense earning especially high praise. Last year, he played 107 games at Double-A, hitting 14 home runs in that time. He struck out in 31.9% of his plate appearances but also drew walks at a 10% clip. His .238/.333/.419 batting line amounted to a 107 wRC+, indicating he was 7% better than the league average hitter.

Dingler went to the Arizona Fall League at the end of last year but was shut down after four games due to knee soreness. He’ll now have to miss the next four weeks before he can even start to ramp up towards returning to action. His prospect stock isn’t considered quite as high as Jobe’s but it’s still another blow to the club’s farm. He still hasn’t reached Triple-A and was looking up a catching corps of Eric Haase, Jake Rogers and Donny Sands. He might not have factored into the 2023 plans but he is Rule 5 eligible this coming winter and will miss some crucial time between now and then.

Since neither of these two players were likely to make an immediate jump to the big leagues this season, today’s news isn’t going to have a huge impact the near-term fortunes of the club. However, the Tigers aren’t expected to compete this season after a 66-96 campaign last year. Given that they are future-focused at the moment, these two injuries bring some more frustration to a franchise that has had much of it lately.

Central Notes: Kuhnel, Reds, Tigers, Moreno, Jobe

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In 2019, right-hander Joel Kuhnel threw 53 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with an ERA of 2.18, strikeout rate of 23.3% and walk rate of 7.4%. Just 24 years old at the time, he also made his MLB debut that year, logging 9 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build off that strong campaign, with injuries hampering him over the subsequent two years. In 2020, a shoulder issue limited him to just three big league innings. Due to the pandemic wiping out the minors, those are the only innings on his ledger that year. He underwent surgery to repair a torn capsule in his right shoulder in October of 2020 and was outrighted off the roster, then was rehabbing for much of 2021, throwing eight minor league innings on the year.

Kuhnel is now getting geared up in spring training for 2022, since he is not on Cincy’s 40-man roster and not affected by the lockout. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com checked in with the 27-year-old as he tries to get back on track. “Everything feels normal,” Kuhnel said. “It feels better than ever, really.” The Reds’ bullpen didn’t do them many favors in 2021, as their 4.99 ERA ranked 27th in baseball, only beating out the non-competitive Diamondbacks, Nationals and Orioles. Advanced metrics were a bit kinder, but not by much, with Reds’ relievers putting up a 4.56 FIP and 4.34 xFIP. The club has been rumored to be cutting payroll this offseason, making it unlikely they bolster their staff with a big free agent splash. That means that improvement from internal options like Kuhnel will be important for them as they try to walk a fine line of keeping spending down but staying competitive.

Some other Central notes…

  • Chris McCoskey of The Detroit News is at the Tigers’ spring training facility, even if none of the players on the 40-man roster are. One player in camp that caught his eye is Gerson Moreno, who was selected to the club’s roster after the 2017 season. 22 years old at the time, Moreno lasted just a few months on the roster as he required Tommy John surgery. The Tigers released and re-signed him in the summer of 2018. His rehab period wiped out most of his 2018 and 2019, then the pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020. Last year, Moreno was finally able to get some significant time on the mound, throwing 49 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His 4.59 ERA doesn’t jump out, but his 33.2% strikeout rate is excellent. It does, however, come with an elevated 13.2% walk rate. The Tigers spent big already this offseason to upgrade their rotation and lineup with Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez but haven’t made a big move in the bullpen. If the 26-year-old Moreno can take a step forward, he could give them a boost from within.
  • Other than Eduardo Rodriguez, the Tigers’ rotation consists of hurlers they drafted and developed: Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and Tyler Alexander. The next guy behind them on that path is Jackson Jobe, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Selected by the Tigers with the third overall pick in last year’s draft, Jobe is just 19 years old and isn’t close to the majors, but is already drawing rave reviews. MLB Pipeline ranks him the 46th-best prospect in baseball and Baseball America places him in the 79th spot. Petzold spoke to one scout, who had nothing but superlatives to offer about the right-hander, giving Jobe’s fastball and changeup 70s and his breaking ball an 80, on the 20-80 scouting scale. Jobe is still quite young, meaning Tigers fans will need to be patient, but the scout offers this as the ceiling: “If everything lines up, he’s the No. 1 starter in the big leagues on a championship team.”

Tigers Sign Jackson Jobe, Izaac Pacheco

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The Tigers announced Friday that they’ve signed No. 3 overall draft  pick Jackson Jobe and No. 39 overall pick Izaac Pacheco. That pair of signings comes just a few days after the Tigers locked up No. 32 overall pick Ty Madden. Jobe received a $6.9MM bonus that clocks in $322K under slot, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter links). He adds that Pacheco signed for a $2.75MM that is about $850K over slot.

Jobe, a high school right-hander out of Oklahoma, was something of a surprise pick to many onlookers. He’s regarded as having one of the highest ceilings in the draft and drew praise as the top high-school pitcher in this year’s class, but prep pitchers have a particularly high attrition rate as prospects, so there’s some risk to the selection.

That said, it’s also easy to see why the Tigers were so drawn to him. Jobe ranked seventh on the pre-draft rankings at ESPN and at MLB.com, eighth at Baseball America and FanGraphs, and 16th at The Athletic. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote that Jobe “might be the best prep pitching prospect in years.” The righty draws 60 to 70 grades (on the 20-80 scale) on three different pitches. Listed at 6’2″ and 190 pounds presently, Jobe was also his high school team’s shortstop and is regarded as an excellent all-around athlete. The history of high school pitchers in the first round, particularly right-handers, isn’t great — but Jobe himself is a highly appealing prospect.

Pacheco, meanwhile, checked in at No. 22 at The Athletic, No. 30 at MLB.com, No. 36 at BA, No. 52 at ESPN and No. 65 at FanGraphs. He’s played shortstop in high school and was committed to Texas A&M. Most scouting reports on him feel he’ll settle in as a power-hitting third base prospect, which isn’t a huge surprise for an 18-year-old already listed at 6’4″ and 225 pounds. MLB.com’s report suggests that he could have more raw power than any left-handed hitter in the draft.

The Tigers have saved a bit of money on Jobe and some down-the-board picks (rounds four, five, six and eight, specifically). Those savings don’t quite balance out the over-slot deals for Madden and Pacheco, but the team could still save a bit  of money on some of its yet-unsigned selections. It’s also worth remembering that they can exceed their bonus pool by up to five percent before being penalized with the loss of future picks. Detroit had the second-largest bonus pool at $14,253,800 total, so they could exceed that pool by up to $712K. Given that flexibility, they should be able to sign the rest of their picks without much issue.

2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results

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The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced.  The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.

Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon.  This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.

For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections…

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
  2. Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  3. Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
  4. Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
  5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
  7. Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
  8. Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
  9. Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
  10. New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  11. Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
  12. Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
  13. Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
  14. San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
  15. Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
  16. Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
  17. Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
  18. St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
  19. Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
  20. New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
  21. Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
  22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
  23. Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
  24. Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
  25. Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
  26. Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
  27. San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
  28. Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
  29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
  30. Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
  31. Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
  32. Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
  33. Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
  34. Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
  35. Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
  36. Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)
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