MLBTR Mailbag: Harper, Angels, Twins, Gyorko, Davis
In last week’s MLBTR Mailbag, Mark Polishuk stepped in and answered questions on Jason Heyward‘s potential of re-signing in St. Louis, a Daniel Murphy qualifying offer, the Red Sox’ pursuit of an ace and Bronson Arroyo‘s future. Let’s dive right into this week’s questions, with a reminder of course that you can email questions at any time throughout the week (mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com).
How much would it take for the Nationals to extend Bryce Harper this offseason? Could 10 years at $300M get it done? How about the Stanton contract? — Spencer J.
Harper’s season has been nothing short of incredible, especially factoring in his age. Scott Boras rarely goes the extension route with his clients in the first place, and in Harper’s case, I don’t see how he’d take anything short of a record- and precedent-setting contract extension. As weird as it is to say — $300MM is probably light.
Harper will already earn $5MM in 2016 (bringing his career earnings to $13.65MM, not including endorsements, so it’s not as if he needs the cash desperately). After that he has two more trips through arbitration. If we pencil Harper in for even 80 to 90 percent of his 2015 production next season, he’ll be in line for a historic arb raise. To put it into perspective, Chris Davis got a record $7MM arb raise from his first to second season after hitting 53 homers in 2013. Another huge season could get Harper a raise of $8-9MM, followed by a similarly sized raise for his final arb season. That means that just going year to year, Harper can expect to earn something like $36MM for his final two arbitration seasons.
Let’s assume that Boras would want to set a clear precedent with Harper. Factoring in that $36MM over the first two years and adding on another 11 seasons at a $31MM AAV would result in something like $375MM over 13 years. I’m not sure that anything could get done for less, and that might only be a starting point.
That might sound like complete craziness, depending upon one’s perspective, but the same would’ve been said about a 13-year deal for Giancarlo Stanton last year at this time. Harper’s set to hit free agency heading into his age-26 season. He’ll be even younger than Jason Heyward‘s set to be this coming winter and, presumably, will have a strong enough platform that Boras will realistically be seeking contracts worth well north of $30MM annually. Put another way: if Harper hits the open market following the 2018 season as currently projected, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he ends up with a $400MM+ contract. An extension would, in all likelihood, need to reflect that kind of earning power.
With the Angels seemingly out of the division race and struggling to contend for a wildcard spot, how much do you think the departure of Dipoto effected the team? The trades Stoneman made haven’t seemed to help much. What trades and/or free agent signings do you predict for their offseason? — Scott P.
It’s true that Stoneman and Co.’s additions haven’t been all that positive, but I don’t know that you’d have seen a wildly different approach from Dipoto. Avoiding the luxury tax was a mandate while Dipoto was GM as well, and it’s not as if his offseason addition of Matt Joyce paid much in the way of dividends. That’s not to disparage Dipoto, who I think is a very worthy GM candidate for one of the four current openings. Rather, it’s to say that he, too, had his missteps, and to remind that trades are a group effort and not made by one lone decision-maker.
Predicting free agent and trade targets is always difficult, but it’s even more so when it’s still September and the team in question lacks a permanent GM. I don’t expect a big deviation from the desire to avoid the luxury tax, and while they’re shedding the contracts of Chris Iannetta and Joyce, among others, they’re also facing arb raises for Kole Calhoun, Fernando Salas and Cesar Ramos — all of whom will be retained.
As such, my personal expectation is for the Angels to pursue shorter-term upgrades as they did last offseason. Catcher, third base and left field figure to be primary targets. If they’re going to plan for even mid-level spending, they might first have to shed some payroll. In that instance, I’d think second-tier free agents like Daniel Murphy are more likely than those atop the market.
But that’s not the only possibility, of course. Following 2016, the Halos will be free of commitments to C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver and Joe Smith, which will give the incoming GM quite a bit of breathing room between the team’s payroll and the luxury tax threshold (assuming there are no dramatic changes in the upcoming CBA negotiations, of course). I spoke with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes on the matter, and he feels the Angels could pursue some higher-end pitching this winter with those contracts set to move off the books.
With the surprise success of the Twins this year, do you see them being active in the pitching free agent market? Most of their position player talent is home grown but the pitching staff is definitely not. — Andy V.
The Twins do actually have their fair share of pitching they either drafted or acquired in trades — Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Glen Perkins, Tommy Milone — but they’ve definitely shown a willingness to spend on free agency in recent seasons. I don’t know that that’ll be the case this offseason, though — at least not in the rotation. Jose Berrios — one of the game’s top 25 prospects or so — will join Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, May, Gibson, Duffey and Milone in a crowded, albeit underwhelming slate of options for the Twins. In fact, if anything, they might look to shed some of those veteran obligations (Nolasco in particular).
The Twins would be wise to pick up at least one bullpen arm (perhaps two, especially if May is moved back to the rotation), and they have huge needs at catcher and perhaps shortstop as well, depending on your opinion of Eduardo Escobar (I’m not especially sold on his second-half power spike).
If the Twins do enter the free agent market for pitching, I’d expect more interest in relief help than in starters, as a lot of the power arms they’ve drafted in hopes of quickly ascending to the big league ‘pen have stumbled.
What are the chances that the Padres go in to 2016 with Jedd Gyorko as their starting shortstop? He’s been steady yet unspectacular there this year, which is more than most expected. — Roy T.
Gyorko was never a great defender at third base or second base, and reports on his glovework at shortstop to this point, predictably, aren’t great. I’d be pretty surprised if San Diego was willing to run him out there at shortstop for a full season, especially since it’s not as if they have lock-down options at third and second that can’t afford to be displaced. The Padres already punted on defense heading into a season last winter, and they’ve been one of the worst defensive units in all of baseball. Penciling in Gyorko at shortstop would be not only failing to address that need, it’d be exacerbating the existing problem.
There’s a history of big contracts to first basemen becoming complete disasters, with the perfect example being Ryan Howard. You could make arguments for Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and Albert Pujols all being under some bad contracts as well. That being said, should the Orioles push hard to re-sign Chris Davis? If they don’t re-sign Davis, who do you guys see as top targets the Orioles should pursue (at any position)? — Dillon A.
At this point, if the Orioles were to re-sign Davis, they’d need to shatter their existing record for largest contract in franchise history (Adam Jones‘ six-year, $85.5MM deal). Davis is going to command well over $100MM on the strength of ~45 home runs and a respectable glove, and the O’s have too many needs elsewhere to dedicate most of their resources to plugging one hole.
Adding a reliable arm to the rotation, if not two arms, should be a priority. On the position-player side of the equation, adding a reasonably priced corner outfielder would top my to-do list. Justin Upton and Heyward are too expensive, as is Yoenis Cespedes, but someone like Dexter Fowler would make some sense in Baltimore.
As far as replacing Davis goes, Christian Walker decimated left-handed pitching in Triple-A this season, and adding a platoon partner with a low cost of acquisition (e.g. Logan Morrison, Pedro Alvarez) could be a suitable, if unexciting replacement. Manager Buck Showalter has plenty of familiarity mixing his assets based on matchups.
Kyle Kendrick has been disappointing for the Rockies this year, but will his track record be enough to get him a major-league deal, perhaps in a ballpark where long fly balls stay in the yard? Or will he be AAA rotation depth for somebody next year? — Allan
Kendrick has a few things going for him in that he’s consistently been able to make 25 starts and soak up 140+ innings per season, plus some clubs might give him the benefit of the doubt due to pitching at Coors Field. If I had to guess right now, though, I’d peg him for a minor league deal with a decent base salary ($2-3MM) and incentives if he makes the team. Better pitchers than Kendrick (e.g. Roberto Hernandez) had to go that route last offseason. I won’t be shocked to see him get a couple million dollars and a guaranteed roster spot, but I’m not going to predict that as an outcome because I’m not sure exactly where he’d find it. Even his road numbers this year are pretty tough to look at.
Latest On Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright Injuries
After undergoing an MRI, Yadier Molina has been diagnosed with a slightly torn ligament in his left thumb that will sideline him for an indefinite period of time, tweets the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold. Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is “cautiously optimistic” that Molina will return for the playoffs, though, according to a tweet from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, and he’s not the only injured star that could make a postseason appearance; ace Adam Wainwright could rejoin the club in a relief capacity for October, according to Goold. Wainwright has been cleared for baseball activities.
Molina’s injury was the reason for the Cardinals’ DFA of first baseman Xavier Scruggs — as a 40-man move was required in order to recall a replacement catcher. As MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch writes, Molina sustained the injury on a swipe tag of Anthony Rizzo on a game-saving outfield assist from Jason Heyward yesterday.
The 33-year-old Molina has had a down season, hitting just .270/.310/.350 with four home runs. He’s still been excellent at controlling the running game, however, preventing 41 percent of stolen base attempts against him. He’s also drawn positive reviews for his pitch-framing skills once again, saving 5.7 runs above average per StatCorner.com and 7.4 runs per Baseball Prospectus. Even if his bat hasn’t lived up to his standards this season, the potential loss of his defense and familiarity with the pitching staff would be a huge blow for the Cardinals in the postseason should he be unable to return. He’ll be re-evaluated in five to seven days.
On the flip side of the coin, the potential return of Wainwright would be a somewhat unexpected boost to an already dangerous club (though as Nightengale tweets, Wainwright never once believed himself to be done for the season). Wainwright tossed 25 excellent innings for the Cardinals to open the season, but the longtime St. Louis ace ruptured his Achilles tendon midway through his fourth start of the season.
Goold reported yesterday that Wainwright would meet with doctors today in order to see if he could pitch this year, and while he clearly won’t have time to build up to a starter’s workload, adding that caliber of arm to the bullpen would be a boon for the Cardinals who, of course, are plenty familiar with the impact Wainwright can have on a postseason from the bullpen. Wainwright fired 9 2/3 shutout relief innings with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio as a 24-year-old rookie in 2006, striking out Carlos Beltran to seal the NLCS and Brandon Inge to lock down the World Series.
Cardinals Designate Xavier Scruggs For Assignment
The Cardinals have designated first baseman Xavier Scruggs for assignment, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The move will clear room on the 40-man roster for catcher Travis Tartamella.
Scruggs, who’ll turn 28 in a few days, has seen minimal big league time in each of the last two seasons. He hasn’t done much damage in that minuscule sample, but does own a solid .264/.357/.456 slash at the Triple-A level since the start of 2014.
As for Tartamella, 27, he has carried rather anemic batting lines throughout his minor league career. But his glovework is held in high regard, and he’ll represent another depth option behind the dish with Yadier Molina set to miss some time.
Red Sox Progressing In GM Search, Will Interview Astros’ Quinton McCracken
It’s been more than a month since Dave Dombrowski was appointed president of baseball operations for the Red Sox, prompting Ben Cherington to step down from his post as the general manager. To this point, a number of names as GM replacements have been bandied about, including former Major League GMs Frank Wren and Dan O’Dowd as well as current assistant GM Mike Hazen, current adviser Jerry Dipoto, D-Backs vice president De Jon Watson and Yankees AGM Billy Eppler. Obviously, those figure to be just some of the many names the Sox will consider to work under Dombrowski. Here’s the latest on Boston’s search…
- The Red Sox have begun the hiring process, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, and one of their first interviews will go to Astros director of player development Quinton McCracken (Twitter link). McCracken, if hired, would be the second well-regarded executive picked from the Houston front office, as the Astros have already lost AGM David Stearns, who was officially named general manager of the Brewers just one hour ago. The 45-year-old McCracken has a 12-year playing career under his belt in addition to six years working in the player development departments for the Diamondbacks and Astros.
Brewers Name David Stearns General Manager
1:15pm: The Brewers have announced Stearns at a press conference (you can follow along the live video stream of the conference here).
SEPT. 21, 9:43am: Stearns will be introduced as the new general manager today at 1pm CT, tweets MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy.
SEPT. 20: The Brewers are expected to name Astros assistant GM David Stearns as their new GM, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Stearns will indeed be the next GM in Milwaukee, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com tweets, and he adds that a formal announcement will come on Monday.
Stearns, 30, will now become the youngest GM in baseball. He is, in fact, younger than seven players on the Brewers’ current roster (Ryan Braun, Matt Garza, Kyle Lohse, Adam Lind, Nevin Ashley, Francisco Rodriguez and Cesar Jimenez). As an assistant GM in Houston, he was tasked with assisting GM Jeff Luhnow in “all baseball operations capacities including player evaluations, player transactions, and contract negotiations,” per his site bio. The Harvard grad served as the director of baseball operations for the Indians in 2011/12 and has previously worked in the baseball operations departments of the Mets and Pirates.
Stearns is “adored by his colleagues,” Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Despite his academic background, Passan notes that he is “far from an all-analytics guy.”
In August, it was announced that longtime Brewers GM Doug Melvin would move to an advisory position within the organization. Melvin, 63, became Milwaukee’s general manager nearly 13 years ago and prior to that spent eight years as GM of the Rangers. He was the GM in Texas for the team’s first three postseason appearances and helped to construct a pair of playoff teams during his Brewers tenure as well, including a 96-win team that made it to Game 6 of the NLCS against the Cardinals in 2011.
The Brewers have conducted an exhaustive search to fill their GM vacancy, but it seems that they have found their man before the official end to the season. The team was known to be focusing on candidates who were both younger and had an analytics background. Rays VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, Pirates director of player development Tyrone Brooks, A’s assistant GM Dan Kantrovitz and the Brewers’ own scouting director Ray Montgomery were all names linked to Milwaukee’s GM opening.
Photo courtesy of the Brewers media relations department.
AL Central Notes: Cueto, Twins, Chisenhall, Indians
Johnny Cueto‘s struggles over the past month with the Royals have been well-documented, but he looked considerably better on Friday (7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K), and as Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star writes, the improved results could have been due to changes made by someone other than Cueto himself. Cueto admitted to manager Ned Yost and catcher Salvador Perez that he had an issue with Perez’s positioning behind he plate, McCullough writes, and they worked out a new gameplan in a closed-door meeting. The exchange was respectful on both sides, and Cueto was a bit hesitant to even suggest the alterations, per Yost. “He understood that Salvy’s a three-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glover,” said Yost. “He’s not going to come in and tell him what to do.” Catching coach Pedro Grifol explained that Perez’s tendency is to set up higher than where the pitch’s ultimate target is, then adjust as the pitcher is delivering. Cueto prefers a lower target that’s set as he begins his delivery, as he likes throwing directly to the glove. There is, of course, only one start’s worth of data to suggest that the changes will yield better results, and this does little to explain how Cueto was initially so successful in Kansas City before beginning to struggle after a handful of starts.
Here’s more from the AL Central…
- The Twins will pay a small luxury tax (abut $38K) for slightly exceeding their international bonus pool on shortstop Wander Javier‘s $4MM bonus, but VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff explains to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune why they’ve shied away from pool-shattering spending sprees that would prevent them from signing players for more than $250K in future periods. The Twins have been content to sign one top-tier talent and then fill in the gaps with smaller signings recently. “Otherwise, you’re forced to evaluate 13-year-olds to judge whether the strategy will pay off,” said Radcliff. “and that’s not going to work.” Radcliff did note that the pool-shattering concept has been discussed internally and called it a “legitimate strategy,” noting that it does have its merits.
- In his latest reader inbox column, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tackles a number of Indians-related topics, including Lonnie Chisenhall‘s future and the team’s free agent approach. Hoynes points out that Chisenhall has played astoundingly good defense since his move to right field, potentially putting him in line for everyday at-bats in 2016. While Chisenhall’s defensive work in right comes with the usual small sample caveat — it’s just 278 innings — he’s posted incredible marks of +11 Defensive Runs Saved and a +7.6 Ultimate Zone Rating (translating to an unsustainable but eye-popping UZR/150 of 46.4).
- As far as free agency is concerned, Hoynes writes that Cleveland has “made it clear” that it will not be a big player in the free agent market. The team is still stinging from its signings of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn and will pursue trades and international signings or try to find another Scott Kazmir “lightning in a bottle” addition rather than spend for top-tier names. Hoynes also notes that the Indians want to give Trevor Bauer another chance to start in spite of his poor second half and downplays his status as a potential trade candidate.
Submit Your Questions For The MLBTR Mailbag
It’s Monday, which means Mailbag day at MLBTR. If you have a question you’ve been kicking around and would like to hear our take on it, send it in via email to mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. We’ll be tackling a handful of the questions we receive later this afternoon.
Last week, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk stepped in and answered questions on Jason Heyward‘s potential of re-signing in St. Louis, a Daniel Murphy qualifying offer, the Red Sox’ pursuit of an ace and Bronson Arroyo‘s future.
Readers are welcome — and encouraged — to send emails throughout the week, of course. However, please also be mindful of the fact that we receive a sizable number of questions and cannot get to all of them. You can always ask other questions in the weekly live chat every Tuesday afternoon.
AL East Notes: Sabathia, Red Sox, Jepsen
Though he gutted out a quality start after a tough first inning last night,Yankees southpaw CC Sabathia is dealing with bone-on-bone arthritis in his right knee, the left-hander told MLB.com’s Barry Bloom last night. Sabathia told Bloom that he’ll eventually need knee replacement surgery, but “that’s the price you pay.” Sabathia has been wearing a brace on his injured knee which he says prevents the ligaments in the joint from rubbing together when he plants to throw a pitch. As such, he’s able to maintain his mechanics.
A few more notes from around the AL to kick off the week…
- The Red Sox could use an “alpha dog” atop their rotation, writes Peter Gammons of the MLB Network and GammonsDaily.com. Gammons breaks down a number of options for the Sox, including Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda (whom, according to one scout that spoke to Gammons, is “too slight” to pitch every fifth day in the Majors). Gammons outlines the case for and against the Sox reeling in top free agents David Price and Zack Greinke within his column, and he also looks at Johnny Cueto‘s struggles since over the past month with the Royals.
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that while the trade of Kevin Jepsen from the Rays to the Twins doesn’t stand out as one of the more memorable deals from this past deadline, it had a significant impact on the Rays’ clubhouse. There was a feeling in the air that the team had given up by trading one of its top setup men to a team they were chasing in the Wild Card race, Topkin hears from people around the clubhouse, especially considering that the return was a pair of low-level minor leaguers who weren’t going to contribute in 2014.
Quick Hits: Zito, Giants, Cespedes, Stearns
Barry Zito tossed an inning in the Athletics‘ 5-1 loss to the Astros today, marking his first Major League appearance since 2013. It wasn’t exactly a triumphant return (Zito allowed a hit, a walk and a two-run homer to Colby Rasmus in his one inning) but it still represented a milestone for the veteran southpaw, who worked his way back to the Show after sitting out 2014 and spending most of this season at Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate. Here’s more from around the game as we begin a new week…
- David Stearns was involved in all facets of baseball operations as the Astros’ assistant GM, which Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets was one of the many reasons why the Brewers wanted him as their new general manager. Stearns’ multi-tasking ability made him the ideal choice as Jeff Luhnow’s lone second-in-command in Houston, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle notes that many teams have multiple assistant GMs who oversee different departments. Stearns’ departure, therefore, leaves the Astros with a big hole to fill. The Astros have several highly-touted members of the organization who could potentially be promoted to assistant GM, and Drellich notes that promoting from within could help the Astros retain these front office talents before they’re lured away by other clubs.
- There is some thought in rival front offices that the Giants could bid on Yoenis Cespedes this winter, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (Insider subscription required). Cespedes would likely be deployed in left, though some time in center field wouldn’t be out of the question if the Giants wanted to keep him playing every day while also finding time for Angel Pagan and Nori Aoki (assuming Aoki is brought back). It could be a moot point, however, as Olney wonders if Cespedes’ demands for a six-year deal are too rich for the Giants’ liking.
- From that same piece, a rival executive told Olney “the Giants are the quickest fix” of any of the non-playoff teams. While San Francisco has some clear needs in the rotation, they have a lot of payroll coming off the books as well as a solid core of proven veterans and controllable younger players.
- Like most GMs, Alex Anthopoulos uses both analytical and scouting data to inform his decisions, and he gave a bit of insight to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about which methods were used in some recent Blue Jays transactions. Edwin Encarnacion and Dioner Navarro may have been more inspired by scouting reports, whereas Justin Smoak may have been more of an analytics call. Both departments endorsed signing Jose Bautista to an extension in February 2011, a contract that has been a major bargain for the Jays.
- Also from Laurila’s piece, he spoke with Mark Melancon about his development into a star closer with the Pirates after an unsuccessful stint with the Red Sox. Melancon credits ex-teammate Russell Martin with encouraging him to use his cutter more, and he admitted that he’s satisfied that he was able to prove to his critics in Boston (both within the fanbase and the organization) that he indeed has “the closer mentality.”
NL Central Notes: Wainwright, Jocketty, Cubs
The Brewers‘ impending hiring of David Stearns as their new general manager is the biggest news out of the NL Central today, and here’s some more from around the division…
- Adam Wainwright will meet with doctors on Monday to determine if he has a chance to pitch again this season, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The Cardinals ace ruptured his Achillies tendon in late April, an injury that usually has a 9-12 month recovery period. Wainwright has been throwing bullpen sessions to build up his arm strength, though he has yet to practice fielding during his rehab process.
- Reds GM Walt Jocketty said his team will look at add at least one veteran starting pitcher this offseason, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The interview includes Jocketty’s general overview of Cincinnati’s disappointing season, though the GM believes the Reds can rebound in 2016 with fewer injuries and possible help from an improving farm system, and “by 2017, we’ll be back up and running.”
- Jocketty doesn’t regret dealing the likes of Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, as it the trades brought some needed prospect depth into the Reds‘ system. The reinforcements were necessary given the overall strength of the NL Central, “so this was the time you kind of step back and rebuild it a little….not rebuild, but retool. We’re not that far away,” Jocketty said.
- Twelve key decisions best outline Theo Epstein’s master plan to rebuild the Cubs, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. The list includes everything from important draft picks to coaching changes to notable additions and subtractions, and the list even includes a mistake — Edwin Jackson‘s free agent contract “served as a cautionary tale for Epstein.”