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Sean Manaea To Reject Qualifying Offer

By Darragh McDonald | November 18, 2024 at 1:46pm CDT

Left-hander Sean Manaea will reject the $21.05MM qualifying offer that was extended to him by the Mets, per Alden González of ESPN (X link). The southpaw was one of 13 players who received a qualifying offer this year, with the deadline for decisions tomorrow at 3pm Central.

As noted by González, the news doesn’t come as a surprise, as Manaea never really seemed like a candidate to accept the offer. He has a lengthy track record of major league success, with an earned run average of 4.00 in almost 1200 innings, and is coming off one of his best seasons.

Manaea signed with the Mets last offseason, a two-year deal with a $28MM guarantee but an opt-out midway through. The lefty would make $14.5MM in 2024 and then have to decide whether or not to walk away from a $13.5MM salary for 2025.

He eventually made 32 starts for the Mets in his age-32 season, logging 181 2/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams earlier this month, Manaea had altered his arm slot and pregame workout midseason, which seemingly made him even stronger as the year went along. Over his last 20 starts, he posted a 3.05 ERA while pairing a 26% strikeout rate with an 8% walk rate. He also made four postseason starts with the Mets as they pushed as far as game six of the NLCS.

That strong performance made it an easy decision for Manaea to opt-out and return to free agency in search of a larger guarantee. It also wasn’t tough for the Mets to issue the QO, knowing that Manaea could reject it and still have plenty of suitors in free agency. MLBTR predicted Manaea for a $60MM deal over three years, even with the QO attached.

The Mets will now be in line to receive modest compensation if Manaea eventually signs with another club. As competitive balance tax payors, they will receive a pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft. The signing club will also be subject to a penalty, though the specifics of that will depend upon whether the signing club was a tax payor or revenue sharing recipient.

Braves Select Rolddy Munoz

By Steve Adams | November 18, 2024 at 12:20pm CDT

The Braves announced Monday that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Rolddy Munoz to the 40-man roster. In doing so, they’ll protect Munoz from next month’s Rule 5 Draft. The deadline to protect players from Rule 5 eligibility is tomorrow evening. Atlanta’s 40-man roster is now up to 39 players.

Munoz, 25 in April, split the 2024 season between High-A and Double-A. His twin brother, Roddery Munoz, was once in Atlanta’s minor league system as well and made his big league debut with the Marlins in 2024. Roddery bounced from the Braves to the Nats to the Pirates to the Marlins via waivers before that debut. He’s since been claimed by the Cardinals and is currently on the 40-man roster in St. Louis.

Rolddy Munoz, meanwhile, has yet to make his big league debut but is now one step closer to doing so after joining the 40-man roster. He logged a combined 4.24 ERA in 51 innings between High-A and Double-A last year, spending more time and enjoying more success at the more advanced of those two levels. Rolddy Munoz fanned a hefty 34.6% of his opponents overall, though his combined 10.1% walk rate was about 1.5 percentage points higher than average.

FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked Rolddy Munoz 18th among Atlanta prospects last summer, noting that he has one of the best sliders in all of minor league baseball: a bat-missing 85-89 mph breaker with incredible movement. He sits upper-90s with his heater and can touch triple digits but has below-average command of the pitch, which has “ineffective movement,” per Longenhagen. Munoz figures to head to Triple-A Gwinnett early in the 2025 season and could have a chance at breaking into the majors next year.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

By Darragh McDonald | November 18, 2024 at 11:45am CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The offseason is here, though the stove isn’t exactly hot yet. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the winter or anything else baseball related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Mets Sign Rafael Ortega To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | November 18, 2024 at 11:21am CDT

The Mets announced this morning that they’ve signed veteran outfielder Rafael Ortega to a minor league deal. Ortega, a client of Prestige Sports, will be in spring training as a non-roster invitee to camp. The Mets also confirmed their previously reported minor league deal with infielder Donovan Walton. He’ll also be a non-roster invitee in camp, the club added.

Ortega, 33, will be in his second stint with the Mets organization. He played the bulk of the 2023 season there, logging 30 Triple-A games and another 47 big league contests. The lefty-swinging Ortega filled a bench role with the Mets in ’23, hitting .219/.341/.272 with a homer and six steals in 136 plate appearances that season. He’s a career .245/.322/.349 hitter in 1301 plate appearances as a big leaguer, dating back to his MLB debut with the Rockies in 2012.

Ortega has extensive experience at all three outfield positions in his big league career, though he’s spent the bulk of his time in center field. He’s spent at least some time in the majors in each of the past four seasons, most prominently with the Cubs in 2021-22, when he batted a combined .265/.344/.408 in 701 turns at the plate.

The Mets saw outfielders Harrison Bader and Jesse Winker reach free agency at season’s end, and they’ve already outrighted outfielder DJ Stewart off the roster and seen him elect free agency as well. Ortega replenishes some outfield depth and provides center field insurance in a way that neither Winker nor Stewart could. For the time being, Brandon Nimmo, Tyrone Taylor and Starling Marte top the outfield depth chart in Queens, but there will assuredly be changes as the team pursues various free agents — headlined, of course, by Juan Soto.

Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Red Sox Among Teams Interested In Willy Adames

By Mark Polishuk | November 18, 2024 at 11:04am CDT

Willy Adames is drawing “very broad” interest in free agency, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) naming the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, and Red Sox as clubs looking at the shortstop. The Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees are also mentioned in a somewhat more speculative fashion, under the general premise that teams with infield needs — rather than specific shortstop needs — have Adames on their radar.

Reports surfaced a couple of weeks ago that Adames was open to moving off shortstop if the situation warranted, thus further opening up his market of potential suitors. Looking at Morosi’s list, the Braves would seemingly be the only one of the four clubs that would be looking at Adames as a shortstop, since Atlanta has a clear need at the position.

Orlando Arcia struggled through a very rough year at the plate in 2024, and replacing Arcia with Adames at shortstop would provide a huge upgrade to the Braves’ lineup. Signing Adames would represent a new frontier for Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, as Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal from the 2020-21 offseason is the largest free agent contract Anthopoulos has handed out over his seven-plus years running the Braves’ front office.

Adames’ expected contract would more than double Ozuna’s deal. MLBTR predicted a six-year, $160MM contract for Adames. Adding somewhere in the range of $26.6MM in average annual value onto the Braves’ books would continue to boost a payroll that has plenty of long-term commitments in place, though Ozuna and Raisel Iglesias are both free agents after the 2025 season, and technically Chris Sale could be as well if Atlanta doesn’t exercise a club option on his services for 2026.

Signing with Boston would open up several defensive possibilities for Adames. Trevor Story is the incumbent shortstop and still an excellent defender, even if injuries have limited Story’s offense and playing time altogether over his three seasons with the Red Sox. Story is still owed $77.5MM through the 2027 season, and while he can opt out of his contract after the 2025 campaign, an opt-out doesn’t seem at all likely given the veteran infielder’s last few years.

The Sox used Story at second base in 2022 when Xander Bogaerts was still on the team, so Story could shift over to the keystone again to accommodate Adames. Or, perhaps the simplest answer is just to install Adames as the regular second baseman, hopefully finally ending the revolving door that has been Boston’s second base position in recent years.

Star prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could slot into the infield mix as early as 2025 if Campbell isn’t utilized as an outfielder. Once the Sox see what they have in the youngsters and need to find playing time, the Red Sox could them perhaps use Adames as a third baseman, bumping Rafael Devers into a first base or DH role. There are plenty of moving parts defensively, yet Adames would provide a clear boost to a lineup in sore need of a big right-handed bat.

Bo Bichette is coming off a miserable 2024 season, yet he remains Toronto’s everyday shortstop heading into his final year of team control. With Bichette in the fold, the Jays could use Adames at second or (more likely) third base, as the Blue Jays’ collective of in-house young infielders are almost all better suited defensively to the keystone than the hot corner.

If Bichette was to leave in free agency next winter, Toronto could explore simply moving Adames back to shortstop, thus addressing a major position in relatively easy fashion. Second and third base could then be occupied on a more permanent basis by one of the Blue Jays’ incumbent infielders, depending on which stood out during the 2025 season. Again, the offensive upgrade is obvious, since Adames, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and what the Jays hope will be a resurgent Bichette form a powerful lineup core on paper.

It is worth mentioning that Adames has played virtually his entire MLB career at the shortstop position, and he hasn’t played anywhere else on the diamond since making 10 appearances as a second baseman during his 2018 rookie season with the Rays. Moving to third base would therefore represent an entirely new challenge for the 29-year-old, which provides an interesting backdrop to the Astros’ pursuit.

Since Jeremy Pena and Jose Altuve have the middle infield positions covered, Houston would therefore be looking at Adames as a third baseman if Alex Bregman signed elsewhere. Astros GM Dana Brown has described re-signing Bregman as “our biggest priority,” so while Bregman’s departure is far from a foregone conclusion, the Astros surely have some backup plans in mind if their longtime third baseman did leave.

Replacing Bregman with another high-priced free agent infielder would count as a bit of a surprise, given how Brown has said his club “may have to get a little bit creative” in managing the payroll this winter. The same applies to the Blue Jays, as Toronto already posted a team-record high payroll in 2024 with only a last-place finish in the AL East to show for it. The Red Sox have plenty of payroll room open, and while the team has shied away from major free agents in the last few years, Boston has already been linked to a wide range of top names (Juan Soto, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Snell), so the Sox seem to be signaling that they are ready to again shop in the high-rent district.

Since Adames is sure to reject the Brewers’ qualifying offer, a new team would face some sort of penalty for signing him. The Braves and Astros both exceeded the luxury tax in 2024, and thus signing Adames or any qualified free agent would cost the club $1MM in international bonus pool money, plus their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft. It is a steep penalty to pay, though the draft hit could be slightly lessened in the form of a compensatory pick after the fourth round if either the teams’ own qualified free agents (Houston’s Bregman, Atlanta’s Fried) signed elsewhere.

The Blue Jays (just barely) and Red Sox stayed under the tax threshold this season, so both would have to give up $500K of international bonus pool money as well as their second-highest 2025 draft selection. The Sox also have a qualified free agent of their own in Nick Pivetta, and if Pivetta departed, Boston’s compensatory pick could come before the start of the third draft round.

Nick Martinez Accepts Qualifying Offer From Reds

By Nick Deeds | November 18, 2024 at 10:59am CDT

Nov. 18: Martinez has now formally accepted the QO, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He adds an update to a prior report, adding that talks on a multi-year deal are not expected to continue.

Nov. 17: Veteran right-hander Nick Martinez is planning to accept the qualifying offer from the Reds, according to a report from Francys Romero. Martinez will remain with Cincinnati for the 2025 season on a one-year, $21.05MM deal.

Martinez, 34, was a somewhat surprising recipient of the QO after a strong inaugural season with the Reds. The right-hander joined the club on a two-year, $26MM guarantee last winter after both he and the Padres opted out of their simultaneous options for the 2024 campaign, making him a free agent. The deal with Cincinnati proved to be something of a coup for the Reds, as Martinez turned in an excellent 3.10 ERA and 3.21 FIP over 142 1/3 innings of work in a season that saw him split his time between the starting rotation and the bullpen.

While the righty posted utterly dominant numbers in relief, sporting a 1.86 ERA in 53 1/3 frames out of the bullpen, his 3.84 ERA across 16 starts saw him flash the ability to be a quality rotation piece. A closer look at Martinez’s work this season reveals that he struggled badly out of the rotation early in the year, with a 5.46 ERA through the end of April. He ended the year on a dominant note after returning to the rotation in early August, however, with a 2.42 ERA in 63 1/3 innings across 11 starts down the stretch. That excellent late-season performance could inspire more confidence in Martinez’s abilities as a rotation piece looking ahead to 2025, although it’s worth noting that his strikeout rate (22.5% vs 19.1%) and groundball rate (42.8% vs 33.7%) were both better out of the bullpen than the rotation this year.

Of course, part of Martinez’s value since returning to MLB following a four-year sojourn to Japan (where he posted a 3.02 ERA in 378 1/3 NPB innings) is his ability to shift from the rotation to the bullpen based on the needs of his team. The right-hander has worked as a swingman in each of the last three seasons, logging 184 innings across 35 starts in the rotation and and 175 innings over 117 relief outings. On the heels of a season that saw Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott all miss time due to injury, it’s easy to imagine the Reds placing additional value on Martinez’s flexibility as they attempt to map out a plan for their young rotation arms. That’s especially valuable given the presence of top prospect Rhett Lowder, who looked dominant in a late-season call-up but may not be ready to jump straight into a wire-to-wire big league season in 2025.

That combination of production and versatility convinced the Reds to extend Martinez the QO, even though $21.05MM constitutes a raise of more than $7MM over his 2024 salary. The sides reportedly discussed a multi-year extension in the days leading up to the QO deadline earlier this month, but did not ultimately come together on a deal. Given Martinez’s age, it’s likely that his earning power on the open market would be tamped down in any multi-year pact. That reality surely made accepting the QO an attractive option for Martinez, and that’s exactly what MLBTR predicted he would do in our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list.

While adding Martinez to the club’s pitching staff for 2025 is sure to improve the team, that hefty raise might cause some complications for the club’s budget. RosterResource estimates the club’s current payroll for 2025 to be just under $81MM. While the Reds are committed to a payroll “at or above” their 2024 level, the club spent just $100MM on payroll last year and the addition of Martinez’s $21.05MM salary would push the Reds to $102MM, just over that mark. Potential non-tender candidates like Santiago Espinal and Jake Fraley could help the club save a few million dollars here and there, but it seems as though Cincinnati will need to exceed their 2024 payroll by a notable amount in order to make further additions this winter.

As for the free agent market overall, this winter’s market remains deep in interesting mid-to-back of the rotation options even with Martinez off the board. Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, and Nick Pivetta are among the mid-rotation arms expected to pursue multi-year deals in free agency this winter, while bounce-back candidates like Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer could provide significant upside as they look to re-establish themselves on one-year, high-AAV deals similar to Martinez’s.

Rays’ 2028 Stadium Deal In Jeopardy

By Steve Adams | November 18, 2024 at 10:32am CDT

The Rays will play their 2025 home games at Tampa’s George M. Steinbrenner Field — the Yankees’ spring training home — in the wake of damage wreaked on Tropicana Field by Hurricane Milton. There’s been an ongoing debate about whether “the Trop” will be repaired in the interim, as the current site was planned to be the site of a new Rays stadium set to open in 2028. Recent events have put that 2028 deal in jeopardy, John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times reports, and Rays owner Stu Sternberg is again referencing relocation as a possible outcome.

As Romano outlines, Hurricane Milton and the ensuing damage prompted the city council and county commission to postpone scheduled bond votes that were key to securing financing for the redevelopment plan. Those delays pushed the vote back by one month, but in doing so pushed them back beyond the November election, meaning the very composition of the boards who are voting on the requisite bonds has changed. Romano adds that the timeline to break ground in 2025 was already “tight” and carried “very little wiggle room.”

“Last month, the County Commission upended our ballpark agreement by not approving their bonds, as they promised to do,” Sternberg told the Times. “That action sent a clear message that we had lost the county as a partner. The future of baseball in Tampa Bay became less certain after that vote.”

Sternberg pledged to “exhaust all [options]” to keep the Rays in the area but eventually conceded that relocation is “not an unlikely conclusion.” Pinellas County commissioner Chris Latvala, per ABC Action News’ Chad Mills, recently blasted the team for committing to play the 2025 season at Steinbrenner Field rather than a facility located within Pinellas County, such as Clearwater’s BayCare Ballpark (the spring home of the Phillies). Clearwater mayor Bruce Rector offered similar criticism to Romano.

Romano points out that Steinbrenner Field has a larger capacity and much more recently upgraded facilities, setting the stage for a smoother transition and lesser revenue losses. Latvala and Rector contend that Pinellas County taxpayers are committing $1 billion in public funding, and thus the Rays should have felt obligated to play their games at a stadium within Pinellas County, rather than nearby Hillsborough County, where Steinbrenner Field is located.

There’s no indication that the Pinellas County Commission will now vote against the previously approved bonds, but Latvala didn’t sound particularly motivated to speed the process along, regardless of the redevelopment’s tight timeline: “If we want to take our time, we can take our time,” he told Romano. “…I don’t think we should be rushed. And if the bonds fall through, so be it.”

It’s possible the delays could already be enough to push back breaking of ground and delay the stadium’s readiness into 2029. That could come with increased construction costs, which Romano speculates could put the Rays on the hook for more than $100MM in additional expenses — all at a time when they’ll be taking in reduced revenues from 2025-28 due to playing games at a smaller site. That will also play a major role in the team’s decision on whether to remain in Florida or more aggressively pursue a relocation bid.

Astros Reach New Naming Rights Deal For Ballpark

By Steve Adams | November 18, 2024 at 9:54am CDT

The Astros and Daikin Comfort Technologies North America have reached agreement on a 15-year naming rights for the team’s downtown ballpark, the team announced (video link via X). Beginning in 2025, Houston’s Minute Maid Park will be renamed Daikin Park. The new name will remain in place through the 2039 season.

“We are excited to be partnering with Daikin for our ballpark’s naming rights,” owner Jim Crane said in a statement Monday morning. “Daikin is an international company that proudly calls the Greater Houston area its North American home. The Houston Astros and Daikin share the same values, a commitment to excellence and a desire to give back to our local community.”

The Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara reports that the prior 28-year naming deal with Minute Maid Co. had been slated to run through the 2029 season but was ended early for yet-unknown reasons. That agreement paid the Astros an estimated $170MM over the life of the deal, per Kawahara. Minute Maid remains a marketing partner but will no longer claim those naming rights. It’s not yet clear how much of that estimated $170MM was yet to be paid out or how the new naming rights agreement will impact revenues.

The team’s lease at the current ballpark runs through 2050, so it’s possible there’ll be at least one additional new name somewhere down the road. Of course, the Astros and Daikin could agree to an extension of the new naming rights agreement at a later date.

The Opener: Rookie Of The Year, QO Decisions, Soto

By Nick Deeds | November 18, 2024 at 8:52am CDT

On the heels of an early-morning signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Rookie of the Year announced:

The four major BBWAA awards are being announced this week, and today things kick off with the Rookie of the Year announcement. In the NL, Pirates righty Paul Skenes and Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill are the leading contenders, with Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio rounding out the finalists in one of the stronger rookie classes in recent memory. Meanwhile, in the AL, Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser is generally considered to be a slight favorite over Yankees right-hander Luis Gil and Yankees catcher Austin Wells for the award. The winners are set to be announced at 5pm CT this evening.

Today’s awards come with additional intrigue beyond the hardware itself, as well. Skenes did not receive a full year of service time in 2024 due to his debut being held off until mid-May, but he’ll earn that full year of MLB service if/when he finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting. Meanwhile, the Padres, Orioles, and Yankees have a chance to earn Prospect Promotion Incentive picks. The Padres will be awarded a PPI pick if Merrill wins the NL award this evening, while the Orioles or Yankees would be awarded a pick if Cowser or Wells respectively win in the AL. Skenes, Gil, and Chourio are all unable to earn their clubs PPI picks for a variety of reasons: Skenes wasn’t rostered long enough to garner a full year of MLB service as previously mentioned, while Gil was not featured on two qualifying top 100 prospects lists and Chourio signed a pre-debut extension with the Brewers, rendering him ineligible for a pick.

2. QO Decisions looming:

The deadline for players to accept the Qualifying Offer is tomorrow, and this weekend saw a pair of reports regarding players on the bubble of the QO decision: Reds right-hander Nick Martinez is expected to accept the one-year offer, while Mets righty Luis Severino is expected to join Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta in rejecting the offer. That trio of players have generally been regarded as the three most likely to accept a QO among the players to whom it was extended. Obviously, top-of-the-market players like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes are certain to reject the QO as they search for nine-figure contracts in free agency, but could a mid-level free agent such as Christian Walker or Sean Manaea surprise the baseball world and accept?

Even if all the remaining players intend to reject their QO and test free agency, the looming deadline could serve as a springboard for negotiations on a multi-year deal, either with their current club or a new one. Left-hander Tyler Anderson and first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the recent examples of players who signed multi-year deals after being tagged with the QO but before the deadline to accept or reject it.

3. Soto to meet with the Yankees:

Speaking of Soto, the market’s most sought-after free agent met with a contingent from the Mets led by owner Steve Cohen over the weekend. That comes on the heels of Soto reportedly meeting with the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Today, Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes that Soto is scheduled to meet with the incumbent Yankees, where the reigning AL champs are set to make their pitch to Soto and agent Scott Boras on why he should stay in the Bronx alongside fellow outfield star Aaron Judge. These early meetings between Soto and clubs have seemingly been largely introductory in nature without formal offers being made or figures exchanged, though that may not be the case for the Yankees given the fact that Soto is already plenty familiar with the organization. Will today’s meeting get the market for the winter’s biggest free agent moving?

Quick Hits: Int’l Market, Mets, Soto, Mateo, Rays, Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | November 17, 2024 at 11:07pm CDT

Roki Sasaki’s impending move to Major League Baseball will have a big impact on the offseason pitching market, but plenty of shockwaves will be felt throughout the international signing market. Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently outlined how several other prospects will be affected if Sasaki’s 45-day posting window stretches beyond January 15 and the start of the next international signing period. If Sasaki doesn’t sign until after January 15, teams will have to use funds from their 2025 signing pools to sign him, rather than their 2024 pools. The 2024 signing period closes on December 15, further narrowing the window of time for Sasaki and an MLB team to finalize a contract.

Since it seems likely Sasaki will indeed still be unsigned by January 15, Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision. This means that the many prospects already committed to these teams on unofficial deals will be in limbo, and the club that finally lands Sasaki is likely to walk away from those pre-existing handshake deals if it means landing the Japanese star. It would leave that team’s set of international prospects suddenly looking to land elsewhere, and potentially other clubs’ prospects might also walk away from their agreements if nothing is finalized on January 15. As Badler notes, teams that aren’t in the running for Sasaki could benefit in swooping in to sign some extra prospects in the aftermath.

The entire situation adds a lot of extra drama to what is normally a fairly routine day on the calendar, as clubs have had these deals with these young January 15th prospects worked out years in advance, sometimes when the players are barely teenagers. Needless to say, it creates a lot of disruption for the players, their families, and their trainers who helped arrange the signings, as what looked like safe pre-arranged windfalls might now be in question. As much as Sasaki may have a higher clear upside than an entire bonus pool’s worth of international prospects, abandoning a January 15th class could create some hard feelings for a team in their future int’l dealings.

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