Steve Adams
- 'Tis Monday. 'Tis chat day. I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to send in questions in advance if you prefer!
- Let's get underway!
Kirk
- thoughts on Texas going after Freddy Peralta in the winter?
Steve Adams
- I don't see why they wouldn't. I imagine lots of teams will be interested in him, though. The Brewers hold an $8MM option that they'll obviously pick up. It's a matter of whether they move him to extract some significant prospect value in return or whether they just ride out his final year and recoup a high draft pick for him post-2026.Typically, they have gone the trade route, but they did hang onto Willy Adames for his full control window -- and Peralta is even cheaper and arguably more valuable than some of the guys they did trade when they were down to a year (or just over) of club control -- Hader, Burnes, Williams.
- Texas will have Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Leiter locked into rotation spots. Tyler Mahle, Patrick Corbin and Merrill Kelly are free agents. You can't feel all that great about the health outlook of either deGrom or Eovaldi, despite deGrom staying healthy this year.
- They have plenty of prospect depth and some interesting young big leaguers they could include (Kumar Rocker, Josh Jung come to mind as former top prospects who might be trending toward change-of-scenery territory).There's no reason to suggest they won't pursue him -- but nothing uniquely positions them as any sort of favorite, either.
The Mayor
- Is Scott Harris or A.J. Hinch's job on the line with the latest Tigers meltdown? Harris especially should be under fire from ownership for his trade deadline moves.
Scott Harris
- Look, I still have all my top prospects. I thought our pitching looked good and needed minor tweeks. Maybe I need an eye exam?
this little piggyback
- I root for the Mets and the Tigers. Please talk me off the ledge.
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Luke Weaver Open To Rotation Opportunities In Free Agency
Luke Weaver has been one of the Yankees’ best low-cost pickups in recent memory. Originally landing in the Bronx via a Sept. 2023 waiver claim, Weaver pitched well in three starts for the Yankees down the stretch that year and made a good enough impression that the Yanks re-signed him to a major league deal in January after he’d become a free agent. He moved to the bullpen in 2024 and made his $2MM base salary look like a raucous bargain. The Yankees made the no-brainer call to pick up a $2.5MM option on Weaver for the 2025 season, and while he hasn’t been as good as he was in ’24, he’s still been a key member of the relief corps.
Weaver is slated to return to free agency for a second time this offseason, and he’ll do so with much higher stock than last time around. The 32-year-old figures to be one of the top relievers on the market … unless he follows the same path as former teammate Clay Holmes and signs with an eye toward moving back into a rotation. The extent to which teams around the league will have interest in that scenario remains to be seen, but when asked about the possibility, Weaver himself told Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on their podcast that he’s open to the idea:
“For so long, being a starting pitcher — you don’t expect to be a reliever. Being a starting pitcher, honestly, has got to be the best job in the big leagues — especially when it’s going well. But, I just found this niche. I just found this ability to do something a little bit different and use my background of starting to channel it into how I pitch now.
…The door is open. I am never just going to say, ’Absolutely not.’ When the time comes, let’s talk about it. Clay has done a great job this year in that transition. I don’t know what people are saying, but I’ve watched from afar, and I’m proud of him. That’s a really cool thing that he’s done. The transition, I don’t think people truly understand — that’s crazy. To do it as consistent as he has, I commend him. It’s cool to see that it’s possible, too. We see it happening from time to time now. Teams are being a little more strategic. So, yes, I’m very much open to it, but I also am not just like, ’Yeah I want to go do that,’ or, ’Yeah I want to go do this.’ Let’s sit at the table. Let’s have a conversation and see what that looks like and what best [puts me in position] to be the most successful. I would like to have those options if they are there.”
Weaver began his career as a starter and enjoyed plenty of early success. The former Florida State standout was the No. 27 overall pick by the Cardinals in 2014 and was in the big leagues just two years later. His debut effort was rocky, but in 2017, Weaver made 10 starts (and three relief appearances) for the Cardinals in a season that saw him pitch 60 1/3 innings of 3.88 ERA ball. He pitched 136 1/3 innings in 2018 and scuffled a bit, logging a 4.95 ERA, before coheadlining (alongside Carson Kelly) the Diamondbacks’ return for Paul Goldschmidt, who was traded to St. Louis one year ahead of his first crack at free agency.
In 2019, Weaver looked to be in a full-fledged breakout with Arizona. He started a dozen games and pitched 64 1/3 innings with a 2.94 earned run average, a 26.5% strikeout rate and a 5.4% walk rate. A flexor strain wiped out nearly two-thirds of his season, however, and when Weaver returned during the shortened 2020 season, the right-hander struggled badly. Weaver made a full slate of 12 starts and notched solid strikeout and walk rates, but he was also immensely homer-prone (1.73 HR/9) and limped to a 6.58 ERA in just 52 innings.
Shoulder and elbow injuries plagued Weaver each season from 2021-23. He posted a combined 5.80 ERA in 225 innings between four teams across those three seasons but, as previously noted, impressed the Yankees down the stretch. Heyman noted within the podcast that Weaver’s opportunities that offseason included a major league deal to return to the Yankees, a series of minor league deals with spring training invitations, or some options overseas. He chose to sign with the Yankees on that one-year contract, and he’s been reborn in the Bronx.
Through 145 1/3 innings out of Aaron Boone’s bullpen, Weaver has pitched to a 3.28 ERA with a 29.6% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, a 32.2% ground-ball rate and 1.24 HR/9. The 93.8 mph he averaged on his four-seamer as a starting pitcher earlier in his career has spiked to 95.4 mph in short relief. He’s mostly scrapped his former mid-80s slider in favor of a harder, firmer cutter in the low 90s and worked off a four-seam/changeup/cutter mix that’s served him quite well.
That three-pitch mix, at least on the surface, would seemingly give Weaver a decent chance to transition back to rotation work. He’s the same age now that Holmes was when he reached free agency last winter. On the other hand, Holmes’ 6’5″, 245-pound frame is more in line with the prototypical starting pitcher than Weaver’s more slight, 6’2″, 180-pound frame. That’s not to say that Weaver can’t make a similar transition, but that leaner build is less common among starting pitchers, who tend to skew a bit on the larger side (which is only natural, given the physical demands of a starter’s workload).
Regardless, Weaver could well draw some interest as an under-the-radar rotation candidate this winter. Many of the expected top names in free agency have struggled this year, whether that’s with injuries or just lesser results than one might’ve expected on Opening Day. Dylan Cease, Michael King, Zac Gallen, Zach Eflin, Nestor Cortes, Walker Buehler and Dustin May are just some of the many pitchers whose platform year for free agency hasn’t gone as hoped. Weaver could present an intriguing alternative, particularly since he’s demonstrated that he can have success in a short relief role if stretching him back out doesn’t go according to plan.
Weaver made clear that he’s very interested in re-signing with the Yankees as well, but he’ll see what all of his opportunities look like in free agency this winter. His openness to stretching back out should lead to an even wider field of teams who are potentially interested and give him even more possibilities to consider. For now, the righty’s focus is understandably on the present and on pushing as deep into the postseason as possible, but he’ll be a far more fascinating free agent to track in the winter of 2025-26 than in 2023-24.
Fans — Yankees fans in particular — will want to check out the full interview, during which Weaver discusses (among many other topics) the rigors of trying to be available as often as possible, some pivotal differences in a pitcher’s mindset depending on the situations they’re facing, and his thoughts on the AL MVP race between two of his close friends: Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh.
Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast
On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.
Only a few days remain in the 2025 regular season. Do you have a question about the final week? The playoffs? The upcoming offseason? If you have a question on those topics or anything else baseball-related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.
Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.
In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
The Opener: AL Playoff Race, Padres, Brewers, Pitchers’ Duel
As we enter the final week of the 2025 regular season, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on:
1. AL contenders prepare for a hectic week:
No teams in the American League have games scheduled for today, giving everyone in the league a breather ahead of a wild final week of the regular season. Only the Blue Jays have clinched a postseason spot among the AL’s teams, and even they haven’t clinched a division title. The Yankees and Mariners appear all but guaranteed a playoff spot at this point, but the Red Sox and Tigers are still facing realistic scenarios where they’re on the outside looking in come October. The Astros and MLB’s hottest club, the resurgent Guardians, are vying for that final spot in the playoffs. With series coming up between Cleveland and Detroit, Boston and Toronto, and Detroit and Boston before the regular season comes to a close, there are plenty of big games to watch throughout the week that will impact the AL playoff picture in a big way.
2. Series Preview: Brewers @ Padres
Over in the NL, one big series between playoff contenders is set to commence today when the Brewers head to San Diego. Milwaukee has already clinched the NL Central but will still need to fend of the Phillies to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Padres, meanwhile, have not yet clinched a playoff berth (although they’re very close to doing so), and they also sit just three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.
San Diego would love a late hot streak to pry the NL West away from the Dodgers, but Brewers ace Freddy Peralta (2.65 ERA) stands in the way of that today. The Friars will counter with Nick Pivetta (2.81 ERA) opposite Peralta. Randy Vasquez (3.94 ERA) will take on an as-of-yet unannounced Brewers starter for Game 2. The series wraps with Milwaukee’s Quinn Priester (3.25 ERA) on the mound, while the Padres’ starter for that final game is still TBD. The set is scheduled to kick off at 6:40pm local time in San Diego this evening.
3. Star lefties face off in the NL East:
Neither the Braves nor the Nationals are a factor in the postseason race, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t intrigue to be found in their game this evening. One of the top up-and-coming lefties in the game, Nationals southpaw MacKenzie Gore, is set to take on reigning Cy Young winner Chris Sale in Atlanta. First pitch will be 7:15pm local time.
It’s been an up-and-down year for Gore, who looked like a Cy Young contender early on but started to slip during the summer months and wound up taking a trip to the injured list. He’s posted a 1.74 ERA in two starts since returning and will look to finish the season on a strong note. Sale had a chance to repeat as the NL’s Cy Young winner until a ribcage injury sidelined him over the summer. He’s been elite when healthy, posting a 2.35 ERA with a 32.3% strikeout rate, but he’s been limited to 115 innings and 19 starts this season.
Brewers Place Brandon Woodruff On 15-Day Injured List
The Brewers announced today that they’ve placed right-hander Brandon Woodruff on the 15-day injured list with a right lat strain. Woodruff’s IL placement is retroactive to September 18. Left-hander Robert Gasser was recalled from Triple-A in a corresponding move and is slated to start today’s game for Milwaukee.
Woodruff’s retroactive placement on the shelf means that he’ll be eligible to return in time for the start of the NLDS on October 4. Of course, that would require Woodruff to be shelved for only a minimum stint on the IL, which is far from guaranteed. According to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Woodruff is suffering from a “moderate” lat strain in the words of manager Pat Murphy, and it is too early to tell how Woodruff’s playoff availability may be impacted by the injury. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports that Woodruff is seeing a doctor in St. Louis today in order to get his injury assessed after the strain occurred during the righty’s bullpen session on Saturday.
At the very least, the news brings Woodruff’s regular season to an abrupt end. Woodruff will end the regular season with 12 starts under his belt, and a 3.20 ERA/3.18 FIP in 64 2/3 innings of work with a sensational 32.3% strikeout rate. Woodruff made just 11 starts in 2023 due to shoulder issues and ultimately went under the knife in October of that year. That caused him to miss the entire 2024 season, and an ankle injury during his rehab this season delayed his return to the big league mound until early July. He immediately slotted back into the top of Milwaukee’s rotation upon his return, and helped to sustain the hot streak that thrust the Brewers to the best record in all of baseball.
The timing of this latest ailment is surely frustrating for both the Brewers and Woodruff himself, given its proximity to the playoffs. Woodruff acknowledged as much himself in comments made to reporters (including McCalvy) this morning. Woodruff noted that he “wasn’t surprised” by the injury and noted he’s been managing his shoulder for some time, adding that a setback could have occurred in June or July and that it’s just “crappy timing” that this happened to come up right before the postseason.
With Woodruff sidelined, the Brewers’ potential postseason rotation is in flux. Freddy Peralta and Quinn Priester appear to be locks to start playoff games, but there’s little certainty outside of that. Woodruff would obviously get starts if and when he returns, and Jose Quintana could find himself in the conversation as well depending on his own recovery from injury. While those two are shelved, however, they’ll likely be forced to choose between struggling rookie Jacob Misiorowski and fellow rookie right-hander Chad Patrick to round out the rotation. Perhaps Gasser can put himself into the discussion with a strong outing today, but the southpaw has not yet pitched in the majors this year after undergoing elbow surgery last year and has just 38 innings of work in the minors under his belt this season.
Padres Notes: Bogaerts, Bader, De Vries, Gore, Kwan
The Padres are expected to activate Xander Bogaerts from the 10-day injured list prior to Monday’s game with the Brewers, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. The shortstop might’ve already been back this weekend except a planned on-field workout on Friday was canceled due to rain, delaying Bogaerts’ return until the start of the six-game homestand that will conclude the Friars’ regular season.
A left foot fracture has kept Bogaerts out of action since August 27, and it wasn’t clear if he would be able to play again before the postseason, even if the injury wasn’t expected to keep Bogaerts out of any October action. Bogaerts has hit .262/.330/.387 with 10 home runs over 534 plate appearances, for a decent but unspectacular 103 wRC+. He has displayed some good plate discipline and augmented his work at the plate with 20 steals (in 22 attempts) and very good defense in the view of the Outs Above Average metric (+7). Jake Cronenworth and Jose Iglesias have handed most of the shortstop duty over the last four weeks, and with Bogaerts back, Cronenworth should return to his usual second base position.
Returning Monday gives Bogaerts six games to ramp up for a postseason trip that has been all but officially clinched. San Diego seems likely to finish as the NL’s second wild card team, unless the Padres can overcome the Dodgers’ three-game edge in the NL West race, or if the Padres somehow fritter away their five-game edge over the Reds (who hold the third and final wild card slot).
Though the Padres surely wish they’d been able to overtake Los Angeles for the division lead, a 25-22 record since the trade deadline has at least helped San Diego more or less lock up its fourth playoff berth in the last six years. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller was his typical active self at the deadline, swinging five trades in July to add a variety of roster upgrades.
The many players actually acquired were just the tip of the iceberg, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that “the Padres were in on every top player” even somewhat available at the deadline. Most of those trade targets were cited on MLBTR’s pages, but Heyman adds that the Padres also had interest in Harrison Bader, who instead went from the Twins to another NL power in the Phillies.
San Diego’s interest in Bader was logical, as the Padres had a clear need in the outfield. Rather than Bader, the Padres ended up acquiring both Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn from the Orioles for a six-prospect trade package, addressing both left field and first base in one fell swoop. O’Hearn’s bat has cooled off since the deal while Laureano has played really well, so there probably aren’t any regrets in the Friars’ front office about missing out on Bader, who has exploded since arriving in Philadelphia.
The largest of the Padres’ deadline deals saw Mason Miller and JP Sears acquired from the Athletics for four minor leaguers, including elite prospect Leo De Vries as the headliner. De Vries was far and away the most prominent prospect moved at the deadline, and it took the inclusion of a controllable young arm like Miller to convince the Padres to move the young shortstop.
This doesn’t mean that other teams didn’t ask. San Diego was known to have made a push to pry MacKenzie Gore away from the Nationals, even though Washington wasn’t going to move Gore for anything less than a haul. Heyman writes that the Nats’ ask from the Padres was a five-player package that included De Vries, so it isn’t too surprising that the Padres turned elsewhere.
Steven Kwan was another outfielder on the Padres’ wishlist, and a De Vries-for-Kwan trade was floated between the Padres and Guardians even though Heyman says that neither team wanted a straight-up swap. Kwan (like Gore) is arbitration-controlled through the 2027 season, so while two-plus years of control is still a lot of an established player, it perhaps wasn’t enough of a long-term add to convince Preller to move De Vries.
From Cleveland’s perspective, the Guardians often pursue at least one MLB-ready piece when trading their veteran assets. De Vries only just made his Double-A debut after his move to the Athletics’ farm system, and while he is posting strong numbers, he doesn’t turn 19 until next month and isn’t expected to reach the majors until 2027. While the Guards were only 54-54 on July 31, keeping Kwan has paid dividends, as has helped contribute to the September surge that has now given Cleveland a chance at not just a playoff spot, but even the AL Central title.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Mark P
- It’s the second-last Weekend Chat of the regular season, so get those questions in now!
Yosef
- Out of the dodgers free agents. Realistically who do you think they’ll keep ?
Mark P
- At least one of Rojas/Hernandez, Vesia’s club option is likely being picked up, and Muncy’s club option will still probably be exercised (though I wouldn’t be totally shocked if it isn’t).
Beyond that, the other FAs will be let go, and Kershaw is retiring.
Hot Stove
- With this hot streak do the reds squeak their way into the playoffs?
Mark P
- Cincinnati is in a wild card spot right now, by dint of holding the tiebreaker over the Mets. The Reds’ final six games are against the Pirates, and against a Brewers team that will probably be resting guys. So, the Reds’ fate is in their own hands, and it helps that the Mets have just been spiraling.
I think I wrote just in last week’s chat that the Reds had really missed an opportunity to take hold of the wild card race. Clearly they read the Weekend Chat and were so enraged that they went on this winning streak!
Austin Hays
- Will my option be picked up by the reds this year?
Mark P
- It’s a $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout. Mutual options are virtually never exercised by both sides, so Hays will head to free agency again.
Dan
- Will Sonny Gray agree to waive his no trade clause with a rebuild coming?
Mark P
- He wasn’t willing to waive it last year when it also seemed like a rebuild was coming, so I’d lean towards Gray returning. If he indicated he was willing to be moved, I can see the Cards exploring deals. Susan Slusser recently reported that the Giants have Gray on their offseason trade radar, and laid out some plausible reasons why Gray might be willing to approve a deal to San Francisco in particular.
Cubs Designate Nate Pearson For Assignment
The Cubs designated Nate Pearson for assignment, according to the right-hander’s official MLB.com profile page. The move clears a 40-man roster spot for right-hander Eli Morgan, who was activated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Iowa.
Pearson first joined the Cubs in a trade from the Blue Jays at the 2024 deadline, and he seemed to benefit from the change of scenery. After posting a 5.63 ERA in 40 innings for Toronto prior to the deal, Pearson stabilized things and posted a 2.73 ERA across 26 1/3 innings for the Cubs. Even though the secondary metrics had a less-favorable view of Pearson’s performance, it looked like he had earned himself a spot in Chicago’s bullpen picture for 2025.
However, Pearson got off to a rocky start and found himself optioned back to Triple-A by the middle of April. He has been recalled and optioned down a couple of more times since, with the end result of an ugly 9.20 ERA and more walks (10) than strikeouts (seven) over 14 2/3 innings in the Show. Pearson’s numbers in Iowa have been considerably better, yet even his 2.22 ERA and 30.6% strikeout rate over 44 2/3 Triple-A frames have come with the red flag of a 12.9% walk rate.
Walks have been a persistent issue throughout Pearson’s career, and his seemingly improved control in 2024 may have proven to be a mirage based on his 2025 numbers. He has also had a lot of trouble keeping the ball in the yard, as Pearson has allowed 28 home runs over his 156 2/3 career innings in the majors. Formerly one of baseball’s top pitching prospects during his time in the Jays’ farm system, Pearson battled injuries while in the minors, and a move to relief pitching still hasn’t allowed him to find a niche on a Major League roster.
Pearson has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, so between that team control and his past prospect pedigree, there is a chance he might get claimed as a reclamation project. Since the 29-year-old has more than three years of MLB service time, he has the right to elect free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A, assuming he clears waivers. It seems probable that the Cubs might just release Pearson if he clears waivers — since he is a clear non-tender candidate anyway, an early release would give Pearson an early jump on the offseason free agent market.
Morgan posted a 12.27 ERA over 7 1/3 innings before his season was all but erased by an inflamed ulnar nerve in his throwing arm. The righty’s last MLB appearance was on April 14, and a setback during a minor league rehab assignment in June pushed his clock back even further.
Finally returning to the mound in August, Morgan has looked quite sharp in posting a 1.69 ERA over 10 2/3 innings with the Cubs’ high-A and Triple-A affiliates. With his 30-day rehab window over, he is now back on the 40-man roster and continuing his rehab work in Iowa, and it is unclear if he might get another look in the majors before 2025 is over. Given his long layoff, it seems unlikely that Morgan would factor into Chicago’s playoff roster plans unless other pitchers get hurt.
Astros Notes: Pena, Alvarez, Rodgers, Polanco
6:16PM: During the Astros’ pregame radio show, GM Dana Brown said that Pena’s oblique injury “could be just a two-day thing. It’s minor based on the initial evaluation of it.” Pena will still get some testing done out of due diligence. (Hat tip to Chandler Rome).
5:40PM: As the Astros head into a critical matchup with the Mariners tonight, Houston will be without one of its key players for at least this game and perhaps beyond. Jeremy Pena was included in the initial lineup but has now been scratched due to left oblique soreness, according to an announcement from the team.
Needless to say, losing Pena would be devastating to the Astros’ chances of winning the AL West, or even making the postseason given how the standings have narrowed. The Astros trail Seattle by two games in the division race after losing the first two games of this weekend series, and another loss tonight would put Houston out of the playoff picture entirely, as the surging Guardians would have a matching 84-72 record and the tiebreaker edge.
Because the Astros don’t play on Monday, it provides some extra time to evaluate Pena’s condition. If it is just a matter of soreness and tonight’s scratch was more of a precautionary move, it’s possible the shortstop could be back in action as soon as Tuesday. Oblique issues are notoriously hard to project, however, so even if Pena remains short of an actual oblique strain, there might still be enough discomfort that the Astros don’t want to risk putting him into a game.
Pena is having the best of his four Major League seasons, hitting .304/.363/.477 with 17 homers and 20 steals (in 22 attempts) over 543 plate appearances. Each of those slash categories is a new career high for Pena, and he has also matched his personal best in stolen bases. Between his big numbers and excellent defense, Pena has been worth 5.7 fWAR this season, even though he missed all of July recovering from a rib fracture.
Injuries have been the biggest problem of Houston’s season, as it is rather remarkable that the Astros are still in the race given how many key players have missed substantial amounts of time. Yordan Alvarez is one of those figures, as the slugger has been limited to 48 games due to a hand injury that included a finger fracture, and most recently a sprained ankle that sent him back to the IL on September 16.
Alvarez provided media (including the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara) with an update on his status today, saying that he has yet to begin baseball activities since the inflammation in his ankle hasn’t fully settled. On the plus side, Alvarez is no longer wearing a protective boot, and he feels he is healing a little quicker than expected. In the absolutely best case scenario, Alvarez would be eligible to be activated off the IL on Friday, when the Astros visit the Angels in the opener of their final series of the year.
One player who won’t be an option is Brendan Rodgers, as manager Joe Espada confirmed to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that Rodgers’ season is officially over. The news is no surprise, as Rodgers hasn’t played in a big league game since June 14. Initially sidelined by an oblique strain, Rodgers suffered a concussion and a nasal fracture after an on-field collision in his first minor league rehab game in July. He returned to play one more minors game in August but was then sidelined by back problems.
Signed to a minor league deal in February, Rodgers made the Opening Day roster, and thus locked in a $2MM salary for the 2025 season. He hit .191/.266/.278 over 128 PA and 43 games before his injuries prematurely ended his season, and Rodgers will surely have to settle for another minor league contract with Houston or another club this winter.
Rodgers was brought aboard to add second base depth due to Jose Altuve’s planned move to left field, and he may have been a fallback plan after Houston missed on signing Jorge Polanco. The Astros were the runners-up to the Mariners in signing Polanco, as the veteran infielder told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that Houston was “very close. They made a good offer, but Seattle came back with a better offer.”
The Mariners were also given the chance to counter, as Divish writes that Polanco’s agent gave Seattle a last chance to top the Astros’ offer. The end result was a one-year, $7.75MM guarantee plus a mutual option for 2026 that has now vested into a player option. Missing out on Polanco might well end up being the difference for the Astros in the AL West race, as Polanco rebounded in a huge way from a lackluster 2024 season to hit .265/.325/.489 with 24 homers for the M’s this year.
2025-26 Qualifying Offer Projected To Be Around $22MM
This offseason’s qualifying offer will be worth approximately $22MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The exact figure won’t be known for another five or six weeks, though Sherman writes that the final total will probably be a little under $22MM, according to sources within both the league and the players’ union. This would track with Sherman’s early estimates about the QO in each of the last two seasons — he reported a $20.5MM approximate for 2023-24 that ended up being $20.325MM, and a $21.2MM projection for 2024-25 that wound up at $21.05MM.
The value of the QO is determined by calculating the mean salary of the league’s 125 highest-paid players. This has usually meant an increase in the year-to-year value of the qualifying offer, as detailed in this breakdown…
- 2012-13: $13.3MM
- 2013-14: $14.4MM
- 2014-15: $15.3MM
- 2015-16: $15.8MM
- 2016-17: $17.2MM
- 2017-18: $17.4MM
- 2018-19: $17.9MM
- 2019-20: $17.8MM
- 2020-21: $18.9MM
- 2021-22: $18.4MM
- 2022-23: $19.65MM
- 2023-24: $20.325MM
- 2024-25: $21.05MM
As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year deal that teams can issue to any of their own free agents. A player is eligible to receive a QO if he has spent the entire 2025 season on his current team’s roster, and he hasn’t received a QO in the past. (Here is the list of active players who have already received a qualifying offer.)
Once the World Series is over, teams have a five-day window to decide whether or not to issue a QO to any of their eligible free agents. A player who receives a qualifying offer then has 10 days to decide on accepting or rejecting the offer. Of the 144 players who have ever been issued qualifying offers, only 13 have accepted, as the top free agents are naturally looking for a richer and longer-term commitment than a one-year pact.
If a player accepts a qualifying offer, they’ll simply return to their team on that one-year, $22MM contract for the 2026 season. (The two sides can still negotiate a longer-term extension after a QO is accepted.) If the player rejects the qualifying offer, he is still eligible to be re-signed by his previous team, but he can now gauge the rest of the market.
Even if a player turns down the qualifying offer, simply being issued the offer has a larger-term impact. Should the player sign elsewhere, his former team will receive some manner of draft compensation in return. By that same token, a club that signs a QO-rejecting player will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some money from their international bonus pool. These factors have been known to influence the market for certain players, if teams are wary about giving up draft/bonus assets in addition to the financial cost of a signing.
