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MLBTR Podcast: Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR’s early discussions for the upcoming Top 50 Free Agents post and the starting pitchers at the top of this winter’s market (1:00)
  • The ongoing bankruptcy drama of Diamond Sports Group and how the upcoming offseason looks in terms of possible spending (11:45)
  • The Red Sox seem poised for an aggressive offseason (20:35)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Y’all have repeatedly talked about the Tigers being at the beginning a strong period and riding a youth movement to the ALDS (if not further). In addition to adding some talent from outside the organization this winter, can we expect to see some of the homegrown guys being extended? Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter seem like solid options beside the obvious Tarik Skubal. (24:30)
  • Did the reduction in time of the average baseball game negatively impact stadium concession sales? If a Dodger game goes from 3 hours to 2 1/2 hours, are they selling less beer? (28:05)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals didn't use the word "rebuild" at last week's press conference, but it's abundantly clear that they're taking a future-focused approach and stepping back from what's been a perennial goal of fielding a contender for decades. The 2025 season will be president of baseball operations John Mozeliak's final year on the job. A new era of Cardinals baseball is approaching. Let's break down what the offseason could entail.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

As the Cardinals' lackluster season drew to a close, it became increasingly clear that changes were on the horizon. Speculation ranged from the front office to the dugout. Ultimately, manager Oli Marmol will remain in place for the 2025 season, and Mozeliak will return for an 18th season leading baseball operations -- but with a caveat. Former Rays senior vice president and Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will oversee player development next season before taking the reins as the Cardinals' new president of baseball ops. General manager Mike Girsch has already been reassigned. In the dugout, several coaches have been let go already.

It feels almost foreign to be discussing the Cardinals, a bastion of competitive rosters in the NL Central for the past couple decades, as a team now focused not on who might be coming into the fold but rather who might be exiting the frame. That's reality, however, as much of the roster could turn over via a series of trades or surprising decisions on what otherwise seemed like straightforward option calls.

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Red Sox Making Multiple Coaching Changes

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The Red Sox are moving on from six coaches, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. According to Speier, the departures from Alex Cora’s staff include first base coach Andy Fox, bullpen coach Kevin Walker, assistant hitting coach Luis Ortiz, mental skills coach Rey Fuentes, trainer Ben Chadwick and bullpen catcher Mani Martinez.

Fox was promoted to first base coach this past season. He’d previously spent time as Boston’s field coordinator. Fox had been in the organization for more than a decade. He played parts of nine seasons in the big leagues as a utility infielder, spending the bulk of that time with the Diamondbacks and Marlins.

Ortiz, who briefly appeared in the majors with the Red Sox during the mid-1990s, had been an assistant hitting coach for the last three years. Ortiz held the lead hitting job on Chris Woodward’s staffs with the Rangers between 2018-21. Ben Rosenthal has overlapped with Ortiz as an assistant to primary hitting coach Peter Fatse in Boston.

The Sox tabbed Walker as bullpen coach during the 2020-21 offseason. He’d spent the shortened season as an assistant pitching coach. Boston’s bullpen has generally been middle-of-the-pack over the past four years. The relief group was a disappointment this season, finishing 24th with a 4.39 earned run average and 23rd in strikeout percentage (21.9%). The bullpen cratered down the stretch. Only the Nationals’ relievers had a lower strikeout rate in the second half. No team had a worse ERA after the All-Star Break than the Sox’s 5.45, while Boston relievers led MLB with 16 blown leads.

That’s not all on the coaching staff, of course. The front office’s deadline pickups of Lucas Sims and Luis García didn’t work. Kenley Jansen missed most of September, while Chris Martin was shelved for the bulk of July. Nevertheless, the bullpen was one of the biggest factors in the Sox falling out of the Wild Card race, so they’ll look for a new voice. Strengthening the group in front of Rule 5 success story Justin Slaten and a hopefully health Liam Hendriks should be an offseason priority for Craig Breslow and his staff.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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It's been almost a year since the Marlins hired Peter Bendix as their president of baseball operations. Since then, the club has been defined by a no-holds-barred commitment to the future, with seemingly no regard to PR considerations. They made almost no investments in the club last winter, aggressively traded away established players during the season and recently parted ways with their manager, their entire coaching staff and almost every other employee. Expect more of the same this offseason, with the club's collection of starting pitchers likely to be in plenty of trade rumors.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Sandy Alcántara, RHP: $36MM through 2026 (including $2MM buyout on 2027 club option)
  • Woo-Suk Go, RHP (no longer on 40-man roster): $2.75MM through 2025 (including $500K buyout on 2026 mutual option)

Additional Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • none

Total 2025 commitments: $39.75MM
Total future commitments: $85.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Fortes

Free Agents

  • None.

The Marlins snuck into the playoffs in 2023 but it quickly became clear that owner Bruce Sherman didn't have faith in the club's overall direction. Shortly after the club was eliminated from the postseason, it was reported that he planned to hire a president of baseball operations to work above general manager Kim Ng. Understandably, she decided to turn down her end of a mutual option for 2024, rather than accept what was essentially a demotion. Manager Skip Schumaker was reportedly annoyed at the pivot, and the club agreed to void a 2025 club option in his contract, making it clear he wouldn't return beyond the 2024 season.

The sudden shakeup was frustrating for fans, but there was some logic to it. That 2023 club actually had a -57 run differential and a 33-14 record in one-run games, a hard feat to repeat. The farm system was generally regarded as one of the worst in the league by any outlet that measures such things.

Despite the playoff berth, change was afoot and that has been the name of the game since then. Rays general manager Peter Bendix was hired as president of baseball operations and showed that he essentially viewed the franchise in the same way as Sherman, with little regard for the club's short-term chances. The largest free agent deal they gave out last winter was $5MM for Tim Anderson.

The prophecy, somewhat self-fulfilled, came true quickly in 2024. The Marlins got out to a horrible start and Bendix didn't hesitate to start the selloff, with Luis Arráez flipped to the Padres in the first week of May. He continued the selloff closer to the deadline by sending out A.J. Puk, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing, Bryan De La Cruz, Huascar Brazobán, JT Chargois and Josh Bell. That list might have been even longer if it weren't for a large number of injuries to other potential trade candidates.

By the end of the 2024 season, the Marlins had accumulated 62 wins and 100 losses. It's clear that everything is focused on the long-term picture and there are no sacred cows. As mentioned up top, just about any major league player with trade value has seemingly been available. The manager is leaving, as is the entire coaching staff. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the club is parting ways with more than 70 employees, including "the team’s dietitian, home clubhouse manager and traveling secretary, and others." Though it has been painful and has been ruthless, it is commendable in a shocking sort of way that the club has committed to a long-term plan and is clearly dedicated to seeing it through.

Going forward, it seems fair to expect more of the same, at least until the club believes they have a core in place that is worth building around. Assuming that's the case, the Marlins will continue to trade big league pieces this winter, in the name of rebuilding for some future competitive window.

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No Extension Talks To Date Between Dodgers, Teoscar Hernandez

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The Dodgers have not had any in-season extension discussions with Teoscar Hernández, the slugger told reporters before tonight’s possible elimination game (X link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Hernández doesn’t seem bothered by the lack of talks, saying that he’s focused on the season and hasn’t given free agency much thought.

Hernández has had a fantastic rebound on a pillow contract. He drilled a career-high 33 home runs through 652 plate appearances. His .272/.339/.501 slash was back to the form he showed during his peak years with the Blue Jays. His middling .258/.305/.435 line with the Mariners from 2023 looks like an anomaly — one driven by his struggles at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home park.

That down year with the Mariners dealt a huge hit to Hernández’s market a year ago. He clearly didn’t find a multi-year deal that was to his liking. He disclosed the terms of one offer he received, telling Rob Bradford of WEEI in July that the Red Sox had proposed a two-year, $28MM deal. Hernández wasn’t interested in locking in multiple seasons at a diminished $14MM average annual value. He signed with Los Angeles for a total of $23.5MM, though he only collected $15MM this year. The remaining $8.5MM will be paid in 10 installments between 2030-39.

Hernández’s bet on himself paid off. He’ll return to free agency in a better position than he was last season. The Dodgers can make him a qualifying offer. He’d very likely decline that $21MM+ salary in search of a long-term deal. Hernández turns 32 next month, so he’ll probably be limited to three or at most four years. That could come at something like the $20MM average annual value which players like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos received as free agents. Hernández is probably the third-best outfielder in the class behind Juan Soto and Anthony Santander.

[Related: Previewing The 2024-25 Corner Outfield Class]

Gives Hernández’s productivity, it stands to reason the Dodgers will make some effort to retain the two-time All-Star whenever the season concludes. They could balk at paying market price on a multi-year deal running into his mid-30s, though. Shohei Ohtani’s presence means the Dodgers would need to commit to playing Hernández in left field for the entirety of the contract. L.A. moved Mookie Betts back to right field when he returned from injury in early August. They’ve used deadline pickup Tommy Edman as their primary center fielder.

They’ll want to keep a long-term outfield spot available for Andy Pages. The 23-year-old played mostly center field as a rookie. Prospect evaluators have generally projected Pages to a corner, which is supported by the middling defensive grades (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -1 Outs Above Average) he posted in center. The Dodgers have toyed with playing top catching prospect Dalton Rushing more frequently in left field. Barring an injury to Will Smith, there’s no path to regular playing time for Rushing behind the plate in Los Angeles.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The Astros overcame a slow start to pull away with another division title. They weren't able to extend their remarkable streak of seven consecutive trips to the AL Championship Series, as the red-hot Tigers swept them at Minute Maid Park. The attention immediately turns to the potential loss of their longtime third baseman.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional financial commitments

  • Owe released first baseman José Abreu $19.5MM through 2025

2025 financial commitments: $142MM
Total future commitments: $416MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Urquidy, McCormick, Murfee

Free Agents

The Astros remain firmly in win-now mode but are facing the potential free agent departure of a core player. That's a situation they've successfully navigated before. Houston has allowed Carlos Correa and George Springer to walk without taking a step back. Are they prepared to do the same with Alex Bregman?

That's the biggest question of Houston's offseason. General manager Dana Brown has said time and again that he hopes to keep Bregman. Multiple Astros players have gone on record talking about his importance both on the field and in the clubhouse. The financial picture doesn't point toward a reunion being likely, though.

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Latest On Jeff McNeil

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The Mets have been without infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil for over a month now, as he fractured his wrist in early September and has been out of action since. But he could be nearing a return to the club, per Tim Healey of Newsday on X. McNeil is going to play in the Arizona Fall League on Friday and Saturday with manager Carlos Mendoza hoping for McNeil to play a full nine-inning game on both of those days.

During the regular season, it’s routine for injured players to join a minor league club as part of a rehab assignment, spending a few days or weeks getting back into game shape before being activated from the IL. But the minor league seasons have all been completed by this time of year, so the AFL will have to do. The competition tends to be a mixed bag, as some top prospects will be involved but clubs also often send guys who missed a lot of time due to injury and need reps to play catch-up. A full overview of the rosters was recently provided by Jim Callis, Sam Dykstra and Jonathan Mayo in a piece for MLB.com.

In the meantime, the Mets will be trying to get through the Phillies and move on to the NLCS. They are currently up 2-1 in the series and could finish the series tonight. If the Phils emerge victorious in game four, the fifth game is scheduled for Friday. If the Mets eventually win the NLDS, they would square off against either the Padres or Dodgers in the NLCS starting on Sunday.

If McNeil is able to showcase his health by then, and the Mets are still alive, the club will have to make some decisions about their NLCS roster and playing time. Luisangel Acuña has only received two plate appearances in the playoffs so far, striking out both times, and could perhaps be the logical guy to be left off next round’s roster.

The more interesting question might be how McNeil is used once on the roster. He won the batting title in 2022 but has been roughly league average at the plate over the past two years. He’s hit .257/.323/.381 since the start of 2023 for a wRC+ of 99.

He got out to a rough start this year, hitting .217/.278/.306 through the end of June for a wRC+ of 69. He then caught fire for a couple of months, hitting .271/.353/.506 for a 140 wRC+ from July until he was hit by a pitch and suffered his fracture.

Getting that red-hot version of McNeil back on the field would be great but it’s also possible there will be some rust after his layoff. Jose Iglesias took over the second base job and had a great season, hitting .337/.381/.448 for a 137 wRC+. He’s gone cold in the playoffs, however, with a .231/.231/.231 line through 26 trips to the plate. McNeil could also perhaps take some time from Starling Marte in an outfield corner, as he is hitting just .222/.304/.222 in the postseason so far.

Both Iglesias and Marte hit right-handed while McNeil is a lefty, so a platoon could be a consideration for Mendoza. He’s already platooning the designated hitter slot, with Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez both performing well. NLCS roster announcements will be made Sunday morning.

Jose Abreu To Play Winter Ball In Preparation For 2025 Comeback Bid

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Veteran first baseman Jose Abreu has signed on with los Senadores de San Juan to play in the Puerto Rican Winter League this offseason as he gears up for a hopeful big league return in 2025, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com.

The 2024 season was an abject nightmare for Abreu, whose struggles with the Astros led to him getting optioned to Triple-A at one point and eventually released midway through the second season of a three-year, $58.5MM free agent deal that stands as a colossal misstep for the Astros (who were operating without a general manager at the time of the deal, leaving owner Jim Crane to oversee baseball operations decisions). Abreu hit just .237/.296/.383 in year one of the contract but still popped 18 homers and enjoyed a strong finish that created some cautious optimism about the current season. Any such hopes of a rebound quickly faded, however, when Abreu tanked with a calamitous .124/.167/.195 batting line in 120 plate appearances prior to his release.

It was an unfathomable decline for a former AL MVP who was a consistent force in the middle of the White Sox lineup for nine years prior to signing in Houston. Even detractors who pointed to red flags in his batted-ball profile and declining power in his final year with Chicago couldn’t have reasonably predicted a drop-off of such extreme magnitude.

With that type of production (or lack thereof) in the immediate rearview mirror and Abreu’s 38th birthday looming in January, the odds of a resurgence feel fairly slim. That said, Abreu is still locked into the third year of that Astros contract, meaning any team can sign him and owe him only the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster.

For a player with Abreu’s track record of thunderous production — to say nothing of his frequently cited leadership traits and clubhouse value — taking what amounts to a free look could hold appeal to a number of clubs. That could be especially true for payroll-conscious clubs with younger in-house options who could grow into a more prominent role but are as of yet unproven. Only time will tell whether he shows enough in winter ball to get that opportunity, but his production will be worth tracking; the Puerto Rican Winter League kicks off in November.

Mauricio Dubon To Undergo Thumb Surgery

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Astros infielder/outfielder Mauricio Dubon is slated to undergo surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb this week, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Dubon played the final month of the season with the torn the ligament, Rome reports. The recovery period will be around six to eight weeks, leaving ample time for the versatile utilityman to be healed up by spring training.

Houston acquired the 30-year-old Dubon in a May 2022 trade that sent journeyman catcher Michael Papierski back to the Giants. He’s since emerged as a key role player for the ’Stros, hitting .274/.303/.388 in 920 plate appearances over the past two seasons while playing everywhere on the diamond other than on the mound or behind the plate. Rome notes that Dubon suffered the injury on a slide in early September but went on to hit .291/.322/.346 down the stretch while playing through considerable pain. Though he lacks power, Dubon is an exceptionally tough strikeout (12.9% this past season) and excels on the defensive side of the game, evidenced by a Gold Glove in 2023.

Dubon is arbitration-eligible this offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a reasonable $4.6MM salary. That’ll stand as a raise over this year’s $3.5MM salary, which he earned after winning an arb hearing over the Astros back in February.

While injuries can at times be a catalyst for an arb-eligible player to be non-tendered, that’s highly unlikely in this instance. The Astros can control Dubon through the 2026 season, and there’s no reason to think the surgery will impact his readiness for the 2025 campaign. He should return to the same utility role that saw him log 93 innings at first base, 138 at second base, 75 at third base, 32 at shortstop, 405 in left field, 153 in center field and 88 in right field this past season. As a career .281/.324/.442 hitter against southpaws, he should also be a regular piece of Houston’s attack versus lefties (even if he had a down showing in that regard this past season).

The Opener: NLDS, ALDS, Rojas

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Phillies, Dodgers facing elimination:

Both NLDS series are on the verge of ending in an upset after the Phillies and Dodgers each fell to their divisional rivals last night, leaving them just one loss from elimination. The Phillies will send lefty Ranger Suarez (3.46 ERA) to the mound in Queens with their season on the line, while the Mets will hope to knock their rival out of the race with veteran southpaw Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA).

Meanwhile, a tense Dodgers-Padres series continues tonight with right-hander Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA) on the mound for San Diego on just three days of rest. Cease started Game 1 for the Padres but was pulled after struggling through 3 1/3 innings where he surrendered five runs on six hits and a pair of walks with two strikeouts. The Dodgers have not yet announced who they’ll counter Cease with, but all hands will be on deck in a potential elimination game.

2. ALDS kicks back into gear:

After an off-day yesterday, both ALDS series — each tied at 1-1 — are back in action today. Guardians right-hander Alex Cobb will take the mound in Detroit after making just three starts this season due to hip, shoulder and finger injuries. The Tigers have not yet announced a starter for today’s game. Thus far, they’ve operated with ace Tarik Skubal as their only true starter as the rest of the pitching staff takes on more flexible roles as directed by manager A.J. Hinch in what the skipper has termed “pitching chaos.”

Later in the evening, the Yankees will send right-hander Clarke Schmidt (2.85 ERA in 16 starts) to the mound in Kansas City opposite veteran righty Seth Lugo (3.00 ERA in 33 starts). Schmidt’s only postseason experience is an 11.57 ERA in three appearances out of the bullpen back in 2022 while Lugo is coming off a solid performance against the Baltimore in the Wild Card Series, where he pitched 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball and struck out six Orioles against just one walk.

3. Rojas day-to-day headed into Game 3:

Turning back to the NLDS, the Dodgers may face elimination with their lineup at less than full strength. Veteran shortstop Miguel Rojas has been playing through an adductor injury this postseason, and he was forced to leave last night’s game in the third inning after aggravating the injury. The shortstop told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) after the game that he’ll need to see how he feels today before he’ll know if he can play in what could be the final game of L.A.’s season. Rojas noted that in the past the next day is “more painful” than the initial problem when it comes to aggravating his adductor injury. In the event that Rojas isn’t available, the club seems likely to turn to Tommy Edman at shortstop, moving him in from center field where he would then be replaced by Andy Pages. First baseman Freddie Freeman has also been playing through an ankle injury that has left him visibly hobbled on the field, as seen last night when he limped to the dugout after hitting a single and being lifted for a pinch-runner.

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