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Yankees, Gleyber Torres Avoid Arbitration

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The Yankees and infielder Gleyber Torres have avoided arbitration, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The Octagon client will make $14.2MM this year in his final year of club control before reaching free agency.

Torres just turned 27 in December, so he’s on track to become a free agent at an earlier point of his career than most free agents. He put together a strong .273/.347/.453 slash in 672 trips to the plate in 2023, popping 25 home runs and connecting on 28 doubles and a pair of triples. Torres walked at a 10% clip — the highest mark of his career in a full season — and struck out at a career-low 14.6% clip. He added 13 steals in 19 tries as well. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-4) and Outs Above Average (-3) pegged him as a slightly below-average defender, but neither portrayed him as a pure liability. Torres’ well-rounded offensive output more than offset any shortcomings with the glove.

While Torres has been an oft-rumored trade candidate throughout his Yankees tenure, it seems increasingly likely that he’ll play out his final season of club control in Yankee pinstripes. He was the team’s second-best hitter behind Aaron Judge last season, and the Yanks are going all out in an effort to return to the postseason after last year’s miss — evidenced by their acquisition of Juan Soto, their aggressive (but unsuccessful) pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and tonight’s subsequent $37MM deal with right-hander Marcus Stroman. Add in the club’s trade for division rival outfielder Alex Verdugo and the potential for some further free-agent upgrades in the bullpen, and it’s clear the Yankees are focused on putting the best possible team on the field. Torres should be a pivotal part of that.

Torres has had an up-and-down tenure in the Bronx. He’ll probably never replicate the 38-homer season he delivered in the juiced-ball campaign back in 2019, but after moving off shortstop to a second base position that suits him far better, he’s been a consistently above-average hitter. Whether that’s pure happenstance or whether the pressures of struggling at shortstop were weighing on him at the plate can never be definitively proven, but either way, Torres has hit .266/.330/.452 since his position change.

Assuming he’s able to author a third consecutive season in that general vicinity, Torres will reach free agency next year as one of the top infielders available — both based on his age and his offensive track record. He’d be a surefire candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer, giving the Yankees the opportunity to recoup some value in the form of a 2025 draft pick (as will be the case with the aforementioned Soto). That could well be the ultimate route for Torres, too, as the Yankees could turn the second base job over to prospect Oswald Peraza in 2025, when he’ll still be just 24 years of age.

Yankees, Juan Soto Avoid Arbitration

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The Yankees and star outfielder Juan Soto have avoided arbitration, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The sides settled upon a $31MM salary for the 2024 season — a new record for the largest salary every agreed to by an arbitration-eligible player. Soto, a client of the Boras Corporation, surpasses the $30MM benchmark that was established by two-time AL MVP Shohei Ohtani just last offseason.

The 25-year-old Soto is coming off another strong season at the plate. After being shipped to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline, the young phenom struggled with his new club early in the 2023 campaign with a .183/.345/.344 slash line in his first 27 games.

Soto managed to flip a switch from there, however, slashing an excellent .293/.423/.554 the rest of the way to elevate his season-long slash line to a strong .275/.410/.519. The performance saw Soto walk more often than he struck out for the fourth consecutive season, earn his third consecutive All-Star appearance as well as his fourth consecutive Silver Slugger award, and finish sixth in NL MVP voting while appearing in all 162 games for San Diego.

Between that walk year performance and the three prior times he’d been through the arbitration process as a Super Two player, Soto now stands alone as the highest-paid arbitration player in history (at least on a one-year deal). A new record was always the expectation; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s model projected a $33MM salary for Soto, and both the Padres and the Yankees were surely anticipating a new highwater mark as well.

The looming precedent served as the impetus behind the deal that shipped Soto to the Bronx earlier this winter, as the Yankees surrendered right-handers Michael King, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez as well as catcher Kyle Higashioka and top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe to acquire Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham. The Padres, after years of ultra-aggressive spending in free agency and on the trade market, were known to be looking to scale back payroll by as much as $50MM and simultaneously looking to replenish a rotation mix that lost Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha to free agency.

Soto’s stop in the Bronx could well be for one year, though the Yankees will surely do everything in their power to keep him long-term. However, he’ll reach free agency at just 26 years of age next winter and do so as one of the most accomplished young bats to ever reach the open market so early.

The rarity of this type of talent becoming a free agent at such a young age could position Soto to command a contract in excess of the $460MM net present value of Ohtani’s extraordinarily deferred 10-year, $700MM deal — and it’s also possible that he could lock in the lengthiest contract ever put forth if he and agent Scott Boras prioritize that. Last offseason saw teams willing to dole out contracts greater than a decade in length to Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts, each running through the players’ age-40 season. A contract covering Soto’s age-40 season would need to extend a mammoth 15 years in length, but for a player of this caliber at such a young age, anything could be on the table.

Soto, in fact, already rejected a staggering 15-year, $440MM contract offer from the Nationals back in 2021, which led to his original trade from D.C. to San Diego. Detractors panned the decision at the time, but with today’s $31MM agreement, he’ll already have pocketed $54MM since spurning that overture. He’ll “only” need to top $386MM in free agency to come out ahead, and as surreal as that number sounds, it also feels quite feasible.

Any talk of a record-setting deal (or close to it) in free agency next winter is putting the cart before the horse to some extent, of course. Soto will need to remain healthy in 2024 and continue to produce at the prodigious levels we’ve come to expect throughout his incredible big league tenure. Despite having just turned 25 in October, Soto already has 160 career home runs and is a lifetime .284/.421/.524 hitter in 3375 plate appearances. That incredible OBP currently stands as the 19th-best mark in MLB history.

Astros, Framber Valdez Avoid Arbitration

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The Astros and left-hander Framber Valdez have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $12.1MM salary for the 2024 season, according to Chandler Rome of The Athletic.

Valdez, 30, took something of a step back last year from a standout 2022 campaign that saw the southpaw post a 2.82 ERA while leading the AL with 201 1/3 frames en route to a top 5 finish in AL Cy Young award voting. Nonetheless, Valdez posted strong numbers in 2023 with a 3.45 ERA that was 22% better than league average by measure of ERA+ in 198 innings of work. That solid performance was backed up by a 3.50 FIP that largely matches his top-level run prevention numbers. Looking under the hood, Valdez posted a 54.2% groundball rate that, while well above average, was actually a career low for the lefty, who generated grounders at a 66.2% clip for his career entering 2023. That being said, he countered the increased contact in the air with the best strikeout (24.8%) and walk (7.1%) rates of any 162-game season in his career.

It’s Valdez’s third trip through arbitration, though as a Super Two player the left-hander will be eligible for arbitration a fourth and final time in 2025. The $12.1MM salary for 2024 is an exact match for the projection put forth by MLBTR contributor Matt Swatz back in October. The deal continues the streak of the sides avoiding arbitration throughout Valdez’s career. Last season, the sides avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6.8MM salary for 2023, while the sides settled on a $3MM salary for the 2022 campaign in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Houston attempted to work out a long-term extension with the left-hander last spring, though the sides ultimately did not come together on a deal. While it’s possible the sides could look to reopen those negotiations in the coming weeks, rumors swirled last month that the Astros were listening to offers on the left-hander from at least half a dozen clubs. Between those trade rumors and the impending free agencies of second baseman Jose Altuve and third baseman Alex Bregman, both of whom GM Dana Brown has expressed interest in extending as recently as November, it seems reasonable to think any talks of a longer term arrangement with Valdez could be on hold for the time being. In the meantime, Valdez figures to be paired with veteran ace Justin Verlander at the front of Houston’s rotation with the likes of Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, J.P. France, and Hunter Brown also in the mix for spots in the club’s Opening Day rotation.

Yankees Have Made Offer To Blake Snell

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The Yankees have made an opening contract offer to free agent starter Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, but Heyman adds the team and Snell’s representatives at the Boras Corporation remain “far apart” in talks.

New York is one of the teams that has been most frequently connected to Snell in recent weeks. That’s at least in part because they’re seemingly involved on most or all of the big-name pitchers available. They’ve been linked to old friend Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency. On the trade front, reports have tied the Yankees to the likes of Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo and Shane Bieber.

It doesn’t seem they’re all that close on any of those players. Heyman reports the Yankees have thus far balked at Chicago’s asking price on Cease, which he adds involves a prospect package centered around 2022 first-round pick Spencer Jones. Baseball America recently ranked Jones, who hit .268/.337/.450 with 13 homers in High-A last year, as the #2 talent in the New York farm system. That’s consistent with various reports that Chicago wants multiple high-end prospects for Cease.

Meanwhile, Heyman notes there’s been “no traction” between the Yankees and Miami on talks involving Luzardo or righty Edward Cabrera. It’s unclear whether rentals like Bieber or Corbin Burnes will move this offseason. If New York doesn’t pick up steam on any of their trade conversations — they’ve surely discussed possibilities beyond what has been publicly reported — that could increase their urgency to add a top-of-the-rotation starter via free agency.

Snell and Montgomery are the clear top two options available. The incumbent Rangers have been linked to Montgomery throughout the offseason. Teams like the Angels, Giants, Phillies and Red Sox have been tied to both left-handers. The Giants and Halos have been more frequently linked to Snell than have the latter two clubs.

The Yankees are the first team known to have an offer on the table (although that’s certainly not to say there aren’t others that were unreported). Snell is coming off his second career Cy Young campaign. He worked to an MLB-best 2.25 ERA over 180 innings. He fanned over 31% of batters faced and was utterly dominant down the stretch, posting a 1.23 ERA from June 1 onward. His command is erratic, but few pitchers are as difficult to hit when they’re on.

A pursuit of Snell is fairly reminiscent of last winter’s run at Carlos Rodón, another left-hander with huge stuff coming off an excellent platform year despite some career inconsistency. Rodón’s six-year, $162MM deal looked disastrous in year one. While one could argue that should make the Yankees gun-shy about pursuing a similar pitcher, it also increases the need for another high-end starter. Neither Rodón nor Nestor Cortes looked like top-of-the-rotation arms last season. That leaves New York looking for another star to pitch behind Gerrit Cole and reduce some of the pressure on Rodón and Cortes.

MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM deal for Snell, who turned 31 last month. A signing team would also forfeit draft compensation because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. For a team that paid the luxury tax like the Yankees, that’d be their second- and fifth-highest selections next year and $1MM in international signing bonus space. New York’s luxury tax payroll sits around $291MM, according to Roster Resource. They’re taxed at a 95% rate on spending up to the $297MM mark and will pay a 110% tax on every dollar beyond that figure.

Astros, Kyle Tucker Avoid Arbitration

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The Astros and Kyle Tucker have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $12MM salary for 2024, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The outfielder is a client of Excel Sports Management.

Tucker, 27 next week, is coming off another excellent season at the plate. He hit 29 home runs, just one beneath the even 30 he hit in each of the previous two campaigns. He also drew walks in 11.9% of plate appearances while striking out just 13.6% of the time. For reference, the major league averages in those categories were 8.6% and 22.7% in 2023. Tucker’s .284/.369/.517 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 140, indicating he was 40% above league average.

His defensive metrics slipped a bit in 2023 but he’s been solidly above average in his career overall. On the basepaths, he stole 30 bases last year, setting a new career high. He swiped 14 bags in 2021 and then 25 the year after.

Tucker first qualified for arbitration last offseason and went to a hearing with the Astros. He filed at $7.5MM but the arbiters opted for the club’s $5MM salary instead. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a jump to $12.6MM but he has settled for a salary just beneath that. He will be eligible for another raise in 2025 before he’s slated to reach free agency.

He and the Astros have had some extension talks in the past but the two sides didn’t appear to make much traction. Regardless, he’ll head into 2024 as part of an outfield that’s also slated to feature Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, with Yordan Álvarez perhaps spending some time there as well when he’s not serving as the designated hitter.

Reds To Sign Brent Suter

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The Reds are in agreement with left-hander Brent Suter on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a $3MM guarantee that takes the form of a $2.5MM salary in 2024 and a $500K buyout on a $3.5MM club option for ’25. The deal is still pending a physical for the Diamond Sports Management client. Cincinnati will need to make a corresponding move to clear a spot on the 40-man roster once the contract is finalized.

It’s the latest move in a pitching-heavy offseason. The Reds have added Frankie Montas to the rotation and Emilio Pagán to the late innings. Swingman Nick Martinez could contribute in either role. Suter seems ticketed for the bullpen, although he reportedly drew some interest as a starting pitcher this winter.

The 34-year-old has spent the past half-decade in relief. Suter saw some work out of the rotation early in his career with the Brewers. Despite finding a decent amount of success, he was pushed to the bullpen by 2019 as Milwaukee graduated pitchers with higher caliber stuff.

While Suter isn’t a prototypical power reliever, he has been a valuable bullpen piece. The Harvard product has turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in five straight seasons. Suter’s profile has been built around strong control and excellent contact suppression. He has posted better than average ground-ball rates over the past five seasons and is consistently one of the game’s toughest pitchers to square up.

Opponents have averaged between 84-86 MPH in exit velocity in each of the last four seasons, per Statcast. That ranked in the 95th percentile or better in all four years. Batters made hard contact (an exit velocity at or above 95 MPH) on only 26.3% of their batted balls a season ago. Among qualified pitchers, only Phil Maton, Tom Cosgrove and Tanner Scott did a better job avoiding authoritative contact.

The ability to stay off barrels allowed Suter to overcome hitter-friendly home environments. He turned in strong results in Milwaukee and had no issues acclimating to Colorado’s Coors Field after a waiver claim last offseason. In 69 1/3 innings, he turned in a 3.38 ERA for the Rockies, including a 3.66 mark in 32 frames in Denver. A track record of success in difficult home parks is surely appealing to a front office building a pitching staff in Great American Ball Park.

Nevertheless, teams generally harbor skepticism about a pitcher who succeeds on guile and command without overpowering pure stuff. Suter’s only season with an above-average strikeout rate came during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. Last year, he punched out just 18.8% of opponents while sitting in the mid-upper 80s with his sinker and four-seam fastball.

Suter’s age and lack of velocity was always likely to limit his market. It’s still somewhat surprising that he landed a $3MM guarantee. Next year’s salary is a half million dollars below the $3MM he made last year, his final arbitration season. Suter grew up in Cincinnati and attended high school there, so it seems fair to presume that geography played a role in his decision — particularly if his camp was sorting through a number of low-cost, one-year offers.

He joins Sam Moll and Alex Young as left-handed relief options for skipper David Bell. The Reds have Alexis Díaz in the ninth inning and brought back Buck Farmer to join Pagán and Lucas Sims as right-handed setup candidates. Ian Gibaut, who is out of options, could compete with Fernando Cruz and Tejay Antone for the final spot or two in the middle innings.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles, Anthony Santander Avoid Arbitration

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The Orioles have agreed to an $11.7MM deal with Anthony Santander to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). The outfielder is a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Santander, 29, is coming off yet another solid season as a potent middle-of-the-order bat with the Orioles. The switch hitter slugged 28 home runs in 2023 while batting .257/.325/.472. That line translated to a wRC+ of 119, indicating he was 19% better than the league average hitter overall. His defense isn’t considered as strong as his offense but his glovework received better grades last year than it did in 2022.

This is his fourth arbitration season, as he was a Super Two player going into 2021. He and the O’s went to a hearing that year, with the club winning and paying him a salary of $2.1MM, as opposed to his filing number of $2.475MM. He then avoided arbitration in each subsequent campaign, earning $3.15MM in 2022 and $7.4MM last year before this year’s bump into eight-figure territory. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a bump to $12.7MM, though Santander will come in a bit below that.

Due to the O’s avoiding notable free agent deals, Santander will remarkably be second on the club in terms of the salary the O’s are paying. Craig Kimbrel is at the top of he list, making a $12MM salary and he has a $1MM buyout on a 2025 option. James McCann is also set to make $12MM this year but the Mets are paying $8MM of that as part of the trade they made with the O’s just over a year ago.

Due to the club’s surplus of outfielders and position players in general, there has been some speculation the O’s would use that to line up a trade for some pitching. There’s still plenty of time for that to happen but nothing significant has happened thus far. That leaves Santander in the corner outfield/designated hitter mix alongside guys like Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, Sam Hilliard, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Ryan McKenna and Kyle Stowers. Santander is slated to become a free agent after the 2024 season.

Mariners, Michael Chavis Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners and free-agent infielder Michael Chavis have agreed to a minor league contract, reports ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. He’ll in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

Now 28 years old, Chavis was the Red Sox’ first-round pick back in 2014 and was considered one of Boston’s top prospects prior to his big league debut. He got out to a hot start in his 2019 rookie showing, and while he faded a bit at season’s end, Chavis’ overall .254/.322/.444 slash and 18 home runs gave him the look of someone who’d be a long-term piece in Boston.

Instead, the late-season struggles from 2019 trickled into 2020. Chavis batted just .212/.259/.377 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, and he’s struggled to regain his footing during brief stops with the Pirates and Nationals. Overall, since that mostly productive rookie effort, Chavis owns a tepid .231/.265/.382 batting line. He’s popped 42 home runs in 1186 MLB plate appearances and shown particular power against lefties (.200 ISO), but he’ll be a depth piece and a project for the Mariners at this point.

Chavis has experience all around the diamond. He’s spent the bulk of his time at first base but also has more than 800 innings at second base, 133 innings at the hot corner and 102 innings of corner outfield work in his MLB career. He’ll give the M’s a potential righty bat off the bench, and if he doesn’t land a roster spot this spring he’ll likely open the year in Triple-A Tacoma.

Cubs Designate Brian Serven For Assignment

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The Cubs announced they’ve designated catcher Brian Serven for assignment. The move clears the necessary opening on the 40-man roster for the two players acquired in this afternoon’s trade with the Dodgers: Michael Busch and Yency Almonte.

Serven is a newcomer to the Chicago organization in his own right. The Cubs claimed him off waivers from Colorado six days ago. They’ll now trade him or, more likely, put him back on waivers within the next week.

Until that claim, Serven had spent his whole career with the Rockies. Colorado selected him in the fifth round of the 2016 draft out of Arizona State. He reached the majors six years later and worked as their backup catcher for a good portion of the ’22 campaign. The right-handed hitter posted a .203/.261/.332 batting line over 62 contests as a rookie.

Colorado went with a catching tandem of Elias Díaz and Austin Wynns for the bulk of last season. Serven only appeared at the MLB level 11 times. He got into 38 contests with their Triple-A team in Albuquerque. Despite an extremely favorable environment for hitters, he managed only a .199/.241/.331 slash over 162 plate appearances.

Serven had turned in better offensive results earlier in his minor league career. He’s a .240/.310/.418 hitter in a little under 1500 minor league plate appearances. That’s still fairly tepid work at the dish, but the Cubs placed a claim a week ago on the strength of his defensive reputation. Serven received solid marks for his pitch framing in 2022 and has strong caught stealing numbers throughout his minor league tenure.

Yankees Sign Luke Weaver To Major League Deal

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The Yankees announced they have signed right-hander Luke Weaver to a one-year deal with a club option. Robert Murray of FanSided initially reported the deal, noting that Weaver will make $2MM in 2024 with the potential for the deal to max out at $8.25MM. The deal for the Ballengee Group client is pending a physical. Jon Heyman of The New York Post relays that there are performance bonuses in 2024 while the 2025 option comes with a $2.5MM base salary and escalators based on innings pitched in 2024 that could push it to $6MM.

Luke Weaver | Jake Roth-USA TODAY SportsWeaver, 30, had a nomadic season in 2023, one which he finished with the Yankees. They claimed him off waivers from the Mariners in mid-September and he made three starts for the club down the stretch. He tossed 13 1/3 innings over those outings and had a solid earned run average of 3.38.

That’s obviously a small sample of work and the rest of his season wasn’t nearly as impressive. He signed a $2MM deal with the Reds for the year but posted a 6.87 ERA in 97 innings for that club. He was released in August and signed with the Mariners, logging 13 1/3 innings for them with a 6.08 ERA before heading to the Yanks to finish out the year. Between the three clubs, he talled 123 2/3 frames with a 6.40 ERA, 19.4% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 35.5% ground ball rate.

The righty has shown better form in the past, including a stretch from 2017 to 2019 when he posted a 4.21 ERA in 261 innings between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, with Weaver joining Andrew Young and Carson Kelly as the return in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. He paired a 23.4% strikeout rate in that time with a 7.6% walk rate, also getting grounders on 43.5% of balls in play. But his ERA jumped to 6.58 in the shortened 2020 season. He recovered somewhat in 2021, getting that down to 4.25, but missed time due to a strained shoulder and elbow inflammation and only made 13 starts.

In 2022, the Diamondbacks moved him to a relief role, which didn’t work out. He finished the year with a 6.56 ERA, split between the Snakes and the Royals, getting flipped at the deadline for Emmanuel Rivera. The Reds took a shot on him and moved him back to a starting role but, as mentioned, that didn’t work out well either.

Overall, he goes into 2024 with a 5.14 ERA which isn’t immediately impressive. He has never really had control problems, however, having never walked more than 8.9% of hitters in any season and currently sporting a 7.4% rate for his career. For reference, the league average in 2023 with 8.6%. Perhaps there’s some bad luck overall in his results, as his .328 batting average on balls in play and 68.4% strand rate are reach on the unfortunate side of average. ERA estimators such as his 4.31 FIP and 4.20 SIERA paint a more flattering picture than his actual ERA. But on the other hand, his strikeouts have ticked down for four straight seasons now.

The Yankees put a sizable dent in their pitching depth with the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez were each sent to San Diego. The Yanks are set to have Gerrit Cole ace the ace this year, with Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes each looking to bounce back from injury-related struggles in 2023. Clarke Schmidt should be line for a back end job. The club has also been heavily connected to free agent starters like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Marcus Stroman, as well as trade candidates like Dylan Cease.

Even if they do land another starter in the coming weeks, depth will still be important. Almost no club gets through a season using only its top five projected starters, with each team inevitably needing to turn to starter number six and seven and so on. The Yanks have Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gómez, Cody Poteet and Will Warren around as depth options but Weaver will presumably jump into that mix.

Though his results on the season as a whole were poor in 2023, he finished strong in pinstripes and they must have liked what they saw. He’s also a former first-round pick and top prospect, in addition to having some decent major league results in the past. The $2MM salary isn’t far beyond this year’s $740K major league minimum, but the Yankees are slated to be a third-time competitive balance tax payor, with Roster Resource projecting a $291MM CBT figure at the moment. That puts them above the third tax line and near the fourth and final line of $297MM. Their current level of spending has a 95% and it would be 110% for any spending beyond the top line, so the Yanks will effectively be paying double for Weaver and anyone else they sign from now on.

If Weaver doesn’t have a rotation job to start the season, he will likely find himself in a bullpen job, perhaps as a long reliever. He has over five years of major league service time and cannot be optioned to the minors without his consent. If the Yanks want to remove him from the active roster at any point, they will need to work out a trade or designate him for assignment.

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