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Brewers, Willy Adames Avoid Arbitration

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The Brewers and shortstop Willy Adames have avoided arbitration, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The CAA Sports client will make $12.25MM in 2024.

The 2023 season was a slight step back for Adames at the plate but he continued to excel on defense. He hit 24 home runs last year, a bit below the 25 he hit in 2021 and the 31 in 2022. His .217 batting average was also the lowest of his career. He made up for that somewhat by having a career-best walk rate of 11.1% but his overall offense was still below average, leading to a wRC+ of 94.

But on the other side of his game, Adames produced 16 Outs Above Average, second only to Dansby Swanson among all big league shortstops. His 5.9 Ultimate Zone Rating was also tied for second in the majors among shortstops, behind Francisco Lindor in this case, while his eight Defensive Runs Saved put him in the top 10. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.4 wins above replacement on the year even with that slightly disappointing offense.

This is the third arbitration season for Adames, who made $4.6MM in 2022 and then $8.7MM last year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Adames for a raise to $12.4MM in 2024 and he will come in just a shade beneath that.

Adames has been a speculative trade candidate this winter, a reflection of his talent, his escalating salary and the fact that he is now one year removed from free agency. The Brewers have occasionally made trades of notable players before they reach the open market, with Josh Hader as the most famous example. As of a few months ago, the club was set to have Adames, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff all playing their final arbitration seasons on eight-figure deals in 2024. But Woodruff required shoulder surgery that is going to have him miss most or all of the upcoming season, which led to his non-tender.

There have still plenty of rumors this winter, moreso about Burnes than about Adames. If the club were to consider trading their shortstop, it would be a tricky balancing act with the weak crop of free agents for the position. On the one hand, they would surely get aggressive offers since he is far better than anyone on the open market. But on the other hand, they wouldn’t be able to easily replace him by signing a free agent.

At this point, given the lack of meaningful rumors, it seems as though Adames may stick with the club into the 2024 campaign. If they remain in contention as planned, he should be able to stick as their primary shortstop through the season, when he will be a qualifying offer candidate. Though if the club were to fall out of the playoff race, he should be one of the top trade candidates available at the July trade deadline.

Braves, Max Fried Avoid Arbitration

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The Braves and Max Fried agreed to a $15MM contract to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’ll avoid a hearing in his final year going through the process.  Fried is represented by CAA Sports.

Fried, who turns 30 next week, put up a 2.55 ERA in 2023.  He made 14 starts spanning 77 2/3 innings, enduring a three-month absence for a forearm strain.  The abbreviated season resulted in a $1.5MM raise for the lefty.

This represents Fried’s fourth and final time through arbitration, as he achieved Super Two status after the 2020 season.  He reached an agreement with the Braves for ’21, won a hearing against them for ’22, and lost a hearing against the club for ’23.  Fried had submitted a $15MM figure at his hearing nearly a year ago, but the arbitration panel instead chose the team’s $13.5MM figure.  So now in 2024, he will earn the amount he was hoping to earn in ’23.

Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported in December that the Braves discussed an extension with Fried’s agency prior to the ’23 season.  Braves president of baseball operations and general manager Alex Anthopoulos has given out 18 extensions since being hired in November 2017, according to our MLB Contract Tracker.  His longest deal for a pitcher was Spencer Strider’s six-year pact, though Strider had one year of MLB service at the time.  Otherwise he hasn’t given a multiyear deal to any starting pitcher, if you don’t count Reynaldo Lopez as one.  Though they’ve signed many players to extensions, the Braves did ultimately let Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson leave as free agents, as noted by Toscano.

Fried is a special case, given a run of success for the Braves that has included Cy Young votes in the 2020 and ’22 seasons as well as the clinching win in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series.  Starting pitchers who signed deals worth $100MM+ with five years of service in the last decade include Clayton Kershaw, Homer Bailey, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Berrios, Joe Musgrove, and Luis Castillo.  After back to back years of arbitration hearings, perhaps Fried reaching an agreement for ’24 can be viewed as a mild positive in his relationship with the team.

If he reaches the open market, Fried would be one of many interesting starting pitchers in the 2024-25 class.  You can check that out here.

Guardians, Shane Bieber Avoid Arbitration

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The Guardians have avoided arbitration with righty Shane Bieber, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The two sides agreed to a $13.125MM salary for the upcoming season, and his contract includes additional incentives based on Cy Young voting, a potential All-Star appearance and postseason awards voting. Bieber, a client of Rosenhaus Sports Management, is in his final season of club control before reaching free agency and has been a rumored trade candidate throughout the winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a $12.2MM salary.

Bieber’s 2023 season was slowed by injury and was quite arguably his worst since his rookie effort back in 2018. Of course, that’s only relative to the 2020 Cy Young winner’s lofty standards. Bieber still notched a tidy 3.80 ERA in 128 frames and averaged more than six innings per start. He was undeniably a solid starter — just not the clear-cut ace he once was.

Drilling down a bit deeper, Bieber’s 2023 performance carried plenty of red flags, even beyond the forearm and elbow troubles that limited him to 21 starts. The right-hander’s fastball velocity has been on the decline since his 2020 Cy Young win, but this past season’s 91.6 mph was a career-low mark that checked in nearly three miles per hour shy of his 2020 levels. Bieber whiffed a comical 41.4% of his opponents in 2020 but sat at less than half that mark in 2023, with a 20.1% strikeout rate.

Bieber still sports strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.4% and 47.2%, respectively, but neither is elite. His swinging-strike rate, meanwhile, has plummeted from 17.1% in 2020 to 10.5% this year — below the league average. Bieber also logged career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%), placing him in the second and third percentile of the league.

Concerns about the underlying numbers in his 2023 performance will probably drop Bieber’s trade value more than many onlookers would expect, but the $13.125MM salary is still a plenty affordable rate even if he continues to pitch more like a third or fourth starter than the front-of-the-rotation arm he once was. And, of course, given his impressive track record, there’s reason to believe he could rebound in 2024 — perhaps not all the way back to his peak levels but at least closer to his 2021-22 output. The demand for starting pitching far outpaces the supply of available arms as well, which will keep interest in Bieber robust.

The Guardians aren’t rebuilding, to be clear, but they’ve historically traded away their best players before they reach free agency — assuming an extension can’t be reached. Cleveland has shipped out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, among others, as they’ve reached four and five years of service time in recent offseasons. In doing so, they’ve kept their farm stocked and been able to continually churn out quality arms thanks to their nearly unparalleled pitching development prowess. Whether the Guards trade Bieber this winter or hold him into the season, the long-term rotation outlook in Cleveland has turned over. Bieber’s time there is surely drawing to a close, and the future rotation will be anchored by the likes of Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams.

Astros Outright Joel Kuhnel

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Right-hander Joel Kuhnel has cleared outright waivers, the Astros informed reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Athletic). He has the right to elect free agency since this is his second career outright assignment; the team didn’t announce whether he’ll do so. Houston had designated him for assignment last week as the corresponding move for their waiver claim of Declan Cronin from the White Sox.

Houston acquired Kuhnel in a cash transaction with the Reds in June. He spent most of his tenure in Triple-A, appearing in 17 games for Triple-A Sugar Land. Over 19 2/3 innings there, he posted a 5.03 ERA. Kuhnel pitched seven times with the Astros, allowing five runs with three strikeouts and walks apiece through 9 2/3 frames.

An 11th-round pick in 2016, Kuhnel has appeared at the MLB level in four of the past five years. His only extended work came in 2022. He soaked up 58 innings for Cincinnati that season, pitching to a 6.36 ERA in mostly low-leverage relief. For his career, he has allowed 6.02 earned runs per nine across 83 2/3 frames. Kuhnel’s 19.3% strikeout rate is below average, but he has kept the ball on the ground on a lofty 52.5% of batted balls.

The grounder rate and a fastball that lands around 95 MPH on average should allow Kuhnel to find a minor league deal elsewhere if he chooses free agency. If he accepts the outright assignment, he’d likely receive an invite to Houston’s Spring Training camp as non-roster relief depth.

Bud Harrelson Passes Away

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The Mets announced the passing of longtime infielder Bud Harrelson last night at age 79. He had battled Alzheimer’s for an extended period, according to the team.

“We were saddened to learn of Mets Hall of Famer Buddy Harrelson’s passing. He was a skilled defender and spark plug on the 1969 Miracle Mets,” owners Steve and Alex Cohen said in a statement. “The Gold Glove shortstop played 13 years in Queens, appearing in more games at short than anyone else in team history. Buddy was the third base coach on the 1986 World Champs, becoming the only person to be in uniform on both World Series winning teams. We extend our deepest condolences to his entire family.”

Harrelson was a Bay Area native who played in college at San Francisco State. He signed with the Mets as a 19-year-old. The switch-hitting infielder got to the majors two years later, debuting with 19 games in 1965. Harrelson spent most of the 1966 campaign in Triple-A before emerging as a regular on the ’67 club.

He was an excellent defensive presence at shortstop for the next decade. Harrelson was the starter for the ’69 team that surprisingly secured the first World Series in franchise history. He made a pair of All-Star Games in 1970 and ’71, securing down-ballot MVP support in both years. Harrelson won the National League’s Gold Glove at shortstop in 1971. He finished among the top five NL shortstops in fielding percentage each year from 1969-72 and twice ranked among the top five at the position in assists.

Harrelson helped the Mets back to the Fall Classic in 1973, an eventual defeat at the hands of the A’s. While he had a solid showing in the World Series, he’s perhaps better known for his role in a bench-clearing brawl with the Reds in that’s year NLCS. After the Mets shut out Cincinnati in Game 2, Harrelson quipped that New York starter Jon Matlack had made Cincinnati’s vaunted offense “look like me hitting.” The following game, Harrelson took exception to a hard slide from Pete Rose on a double play turn, leading to the fracas.

As he self-deprecatingly noted, Harrelson wasn’t much of an offensive threat. He never hit more than one home run in a season — he had seven over his 16-year MLB career — and didn’t top a .659 OPS in any season in which he reached 250 plate appearances. That the Mets nevertheless stuck with him as their primary shortstop for over a decade speaks to how highly the team valued him as a defender. Harrelson remained in Queens through the 1977 campaign.

New York dealt him to the Phillies on the eve of the ’78 season. He played two years in Philadelphia and logged 87 contests with the 1980 Rangers to conclude his playing career. Harrelson appeared in more than 1500 games. He was a .236/.327/.288 hitter in over 5500 trips to the plate. He appeared on MVP ballots in three seasons and helped the Mets to two pennants.

He returned to the Mets in his post-playing days, managing in the farm system before taking on a role on the coaching staff. He was inducted into the team Hall of Fame in 1986 and, as the Cohens mentioned, was on staff for the franchise’s second championship. Harrelson got a brief look as manager, replacing Davey Johnson midseason in 1990. He led the team to a 70-49 record down the stretch but was fired the following season after a second half collapse put the club at 74-80.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Harrelson’s family, friends, loved ones and former teammates.

Pirates Sign Sergio Alcantara To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates announced Thursday that they’ve signed infielder Sergio Alcantara and righty Hunter Stratton to minor league deals and invited them to spring training. They’re two of a slate of eight NRIs announced by Pittsburgh today, although the other six — outfielders Gilberto Celestino and Billy McKinney, righties Ben Heller and Ryder Ryan, infielder Jake Lamb, lefty Michael Plassmeyer — have all been previously reported.

Alcantara, 27, has appeared in three big league seasons, spending time with the Tigers, Cubs, Padres and Diamondbacks. He’s a career .209/.281/.343 hitter in 502 MLB plate appearances and carries a .275/.389/.412 slash in a comparable amount of playing time at the Triple-A level. Alcantara is an above-average runner with a plus glove and arm at shortstop, but his sub-par track record at the plate leaves plenty to be desired. He’s played shortstop, third base and second base in his limited big league career to date and will give the Bucs some depth all around their infield.

Stratton, 27, was the Pirates’ 16th-round pick back in 2017. He made his MLB debut this past season and pitched well in a small sample, holding opponents to three runs on nine hits and three walks with 10 punchouts in a dozen innings of work. Pittsburgh non-tendered him earlier this winter.

Stratton has long demonstrated worrying command issues in the minor leagues, however, and those were on full display again in 2023. Stratton notched a solid 3.99 ERA with a hefty 30.6% strikeout rate in 56 1/3 Triple-A frames, but that was accompanied by a 12.8% walk rate. He’s never posted a single-season walk rate south of 11.8% and has issued a free pass to 13.1% of the opponents he’s faced as a professional. Add in 24 hit batters in his career, and nearly 16% of Stratton’s opponents have reached base without needing to put a ball in play. Stratton throws hard, sitting just shy of 96 mph with his heater, and can clearly miss bats in bunches, but he’ll likely need to improve his command to carve out a longer look at the MLB level.

Cubs Sign Shota Imanaga To Four-Year Deal

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The Cubs officially announced the signing of left-hander Shota Imanaga to a four-year contract. It’s reportedly a $53MM guarantee. The deal contains a fifth-year team option and could reach $80MM. The Cubs will need to decide after the 2025 and potentially ’26 seasons whether to exercise the option for 2028. If the club declines the option at either point, Imanaga would have the ability to opt out and become a free agent. He receives limited no-trade rights and would earn a full no-trade clause if the Cubs exercise either of their options.

On top of what they’ll pay Imanaga, the Cubs owe a posting fee to the Yokohama BayStars of Nippon Professional Baseball. That’ll initially be a $9.825MM sum and would increase if the team exercises the option and/or Imanaga unlocks more money via escalators. The Cubs would owe the BayStars an additional 15% of whatever money the southpaw earns beyond the initial guarantee.

It’s the first MLB free agent pickup of the offseason for the Cubs. It’s a big acquisition, as the southpaw is one of the more intriguing pitchers in this year’s class. That makes the financial terms unexpected. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract. Reporting in recent weeks had suggested he could top $100MM. Even with the conditional opt-out possibilities, a $53MM guarantee and an $80MM maximum value comes in below general expectations.

Imanaga has spent the past eight seasons with the BayStars in his home country. He owns a career 3.18 ERA in a league generally regarded as the second-best level in the world. Imanaga has turned in a 3.08 or better in each of the past three seasons, including a sub-3.00 figure for the last two years.

During the 2023 campaign, he allowed 2.80 earned runs per nine through 148 innings. He led all NPB hurlers with 174 strikeouts, narrowly topping Dodgers’ $325MM signee Yoshinobu Yamamoto in that regard. That’s an impressive 29.2% clip that’s well above the 22.1% MLB average. He paired that with a tidy 4% walk rate, ranking him among NPB’s best pitchers at dominating the strike zone.

Despite the strong strikeout and walk profile, Imanaga doesn’t come with the kind of excitement generated by Yamamoto. That’s in part due to age. Having turned 30 last September, Imanaga is a typical age for a first-time free agent starter. More importantly, his repertoire points more toward a projection as a solid mid-rotation arm than a potential ace.

Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke before the offseason suggested Imanaga profiles as a #3/4 pitcher in a big league rotation. Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser pegged him as a #4/5 type in a scouting report from early December. The 5’10” hurler typically sits in the low-90s with his fastball, touching the 94-95 MPH range in shorter stints.

Evaluators have credited him with above-average life on the pitch, allowing it to play for whiffs at the top of the strike zone despite the pedestrian velocity. Glaser writes that Imanaga backs that up with an above-average split but suggests his MLB upside may be capped by middling breaking stuff.

The main concern in Imanaga’s statistical profile has been the longball. He surrendered 17 homers last season, the second-most of any NPB pitcher. While some of that is attributable to workload — he was 15th in innings pitched — it hints at a fly-ball profile that could give some evaluators pause. The Yankees reportedly stayed on the periphery of the bidding in part because of concerns that Imanaga wouldn’t profile well in a very hitter-friendly home park. Statcast’s Park Factors rate Wrigley Field as slightly favorable to home runs, but it’s not among the top handful of hitting venues in MLB.

Imanaga’s stellar strikeout/walk profile and consistently strong results generated a decent amount of reported interest. The Red Sox, Giants and Angels were all reported to be in the bidding of late. He’ll bypass those teams to step into a Chicago rotation that seems likely to lose Marcus Stroman to free agency.

Imanaga joins Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon as locks for the Opening Day rotation. The likes of Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski and prospect Ben Brown could battle for the #5 job. There’s still plenty of time for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office to add another starter if they want to solidify the final spot and push all their younger, unproven arms into depth roles.

The fee to the BayStars is proportional to the contract value: 20% of the deal’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of further spending ($450K). The 15% rate also applies to whatever future earnings Imanaga secures.

A posting fee is on top of the sum to the player but not included in the deal’s competitive balance tax calculation. The average annual value checks in at $13.25MM. According to Roster Resource, that’ll push the team’s CBT number north of $198MM. That’s nowhere near next year’s $237MM tax threshold. Evenly distributing the salaries would move the team’s 2024 payroll commitments to roughly $191MM — slightly beyond last year’s approximate $184MM Opening Day mark.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Cubs had an agreement with Imanaga. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the presence of various escalators and option provisions and the deal’s $80MM maximum value. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported the four-year, $53MM agreement, as well as the club option/opt-out possibilities after years two and three. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported the no-trade provisions.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates Showed Interest In Shota Imanaga

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Shota Imanaga’s 45-day posting window closes today, meaning the Cubs will likely announce his reported four-year contract in the near future. It’s known that the Chicago outbid a field of interested parties including at least the Giants, Angels and Red Sox, although multiple reports in the final days of Imanaga’s free agency suggested there were as many as five teams in the mix. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers now reports that the Pirates showed interest in the star NPB left-hander — a surprise entrant into the Imanaga market for a number of reasons.

On the one hand, word of interest that didn’t materialize in a deal can be waved off by many as inconsequential. Imanaga is headed to the Cubs, and he’ll spend anywhere from two to five seasons there, thanks to the complex nature of his contract. (Four years are guaranteed, but he has multiple opt-out chances and the Cubs can supersede those by picking up a fifth-year option after the 2025 season.) What’s done is done. Imanaga is not and will not be a member of the Pirates.

On the other, the Pirates are a genuinely surprising entrant into the Imanaga bidding. Signing him would’ve required the Bucs to commit the largest contract they’ve ever given to a pitcher; Francisco Liriano’s $39MM pact currently holds that distinction. That’s interesting in and of itself, but it’s also further intriguing in that their reported interest now makes it worth wondering whether the Bucs might have a bit more money to spend than most would’ve assumed. And, if that’s the case, it’s fair to consider that perhaps they’d be in play for other middle-tier starters who remain unsigned. The likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still figure to be well beyond the Pirates’ price range, but there are still a few notable arms in the next tier down — Marcus Stroman, James Paxton, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and Cuban righty Yariel Rodriguez (who’s spent the past several seasons starring in NPB) among them.

Thus far, the Pirates have added lefties Martin Perez (one year, $8MM) and Marco Gonzales (acquired from the Braves for a PTBNL) to their rotation behind Mitch Keller. With right-hander Johan Oviedo undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this offseason, however, there’s greater need beyond that trio — especially considering Gonzales’ own injury troubles this past season. Former top prospect Roansy Contreras took a step back in 2023 after a more promising 2022 showing, while prospect Quinn Priester had a rocky debut in 2023.

The Pirates will get righty JT Brubaker back from his own Tommy John procedure this year, but he’ll surely be eased back into the fold and will be on some level of innings limit. Right-hander Luis Ortiz and southpaw Bailey Falter are among the team’s other options in the rotation, and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes could make his MLB debut during the summer of 2024. That all gives the Bucs some depth, but with at least two rotation spots still in flux, there’s room for another arm to be added.

It’s possible that the Pirates viewed Imanaga as an exception of sorts, and that their interest in him will go down as little more than a footnote. It remains unclear, after all, whether they pursued him with any level of aggression or whether they were hoping to land him on a shorter-term pact that falls well shy of where he ultimately landed with the Cubs.

If the Bucs fill out their rotation internally or make another budget pickup to stuff some low-upside innings into their starting staff, the interest in Imanaga will quickly be forgotten. But it’s nevertheless interesting to see Pittsburgh punching north of its typical weight class in free agency. General manager Ben Cherington indicated earlier this offseason that the team’s payroll can be expected to increase — although last year’s $73MM Opening Day mark is quite a low bar to clear. The Bucs currently project for a payroll of about $70MM, per Roster Resource.

The Opener: Arbitration Deadline, SP Market, Astros

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As we arrive at a major date on MLB’s offseason calendar, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Arbitration Exchange Deadline

The deadline for teams to exchange salary figures with players eligible for arbitration is set for today. The deadline was reportedly moved up from its original date of Friday, January 12 last month via joint agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, though news of the change only broke for the first time last night. A deadline for players and teams to come to contract agreements avoiding arbitration has been set for noon CT today, while salary figures will be exchanged by 7pm CT this evening. While teams and players can continue negotiating beyond the exchange of salary figures, teams have increasingly opted for a “file and trial” approach to arbitration in recent years, cutting off talks on pure one-year deals once figures are exchanged.

Today’s deadline should spur plenty of activity around the league throughout the day, as every team in baseball has at least two players with whom they’ll need to come to an agreement this afternoon or exchange salary figures with this evening. Most notably, each of the Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Marlins, and Dodgers have ten or more such players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arbitration-eligible players back in October. Yankees star outfielder Juan Soto leads the pack this year with a projected salary of $33MM that would break the record set by two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani last winter.

2. Could the market for starting pitching pick up soon?

With left-hander Shota Imanaga off the board after reportedly agreeing to a four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs, could more movement on the starting pitching market be on the horizon? The trio of southpaws at the top of the starting pitching market this winter has been whittled down to two as only Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain available, though it doesn’t appear that either player is close to signing at the moment. That said, rumors have begun to pick up in recent days regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman, who is generally regarded as one of the better arms still on the board. Meanwhile, White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease remains the focus of the rumor mill in terms of trade candidates as all indications point toward a deal coming together in the coming weeks even as the club’s reported asking price for their top starter remains quite hefty.

3. Kuhnel exiting DFA limbo:

Astros right-hander Joel Kuhnel was designated for assignment last week after the club claimed fellow righty Declan Cronin off waivers from the White Sox. Today marks one week since Kuhnel’s DFA, meaning a resolution is expected sometime today. Kuhnel, 29 next month, spent his entire career in Cincinnati prior to a cash deal shipping him to Houston back in June. The righty sports a lackluster 6.02 ERA in 76 career appearances at the big league level, though his 4.55 career FIP improves his overall resume somewhat. While Kuhnel’s 19.3% strikeout rate is nothing to write home about, he does sport an impressive 52.5% groundball rate for his career. That could spur an interested club to take a chance on Kuhnel, claiming him off waivers and adding him to their own 40-man roster. If no team opts to do so, the Astros can attempt to outright the right-hander to Triple-A as non-roster depth, though Kuhnel would have the ability to reject such an assignment after previously being outrighted by the Reds back in 2020.

Latest On Dylan Cease

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Dylan Cease remains atop the list of potential trade candidates for teams seeking rotation upgrades this offseason, but White Sox general manager Chris Getz isn’t backing off on his asking price in a trade, writes ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. Other clubs who’ve spoken to the Sox about Cease tell Rogers that the ask has been “multiple” top prospects with additional lower-end talent; the Sox aren’t open to dealing two affordable years of control over their top starter for a package centered around just one top-tier prospect.

That generally aligns with prior reporting that the White Sox asked the Reds for last year’s first-round pick, Rhett Lowder, and top prospects Edwin Arroyo and Connor Phillips in exchange for Cease. Other teams have similarly balked at the idea of parting with so much talent from the top end of their system.

Rogers reports that the Braves approached the Sox and dangled infielder Vaughn Grissom, among others, but were rebuffed. Grissom instead went to the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade. The Yankees, despite having known interest in Cease, aren’t likely to further deplete their farm after already acquiring Juan Soto (and Alex Verdugo) this offseason, per Rogers — at least not at the current asking price. Outfield prospect Spencer Jones, in particular, seems highly unlikely to be included in any potential deal, he adds. Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of The Athletic writes in his latest mailbag that talks between the Red Sox and White Sox never gained traction, thanks to Chicago’s steep ask.

Despite the lack of traction in talks thus far, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said in a Tuesday appearance on Foul Territory that he expects Cease to be moved prior to the season. The demand for starting pitching, as Rosenthal rightly observes, clearly outpaces the supply that’s available in free agency. Beyond that, the asking price on some other pitchers rumored to be available — Jesus Luzardo, in particular — would likely be even greater than the ask for Cease. Luzardo has three years of club control as compared to Cease’s two.

Each of the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Giants, Dodgers and Padres, at the very least, could still use some degree of rotation upgrade. The Cardinals signed three free agents early in the offseason (Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson) but were reported to have interest in Cease even after making that trio of additions.

Getz, unsurprisingly, kept things close to the vest in his public comments yesterday. The newly minted general manager rattled off a series of familiar choruses, noting that Cease would only be moved for the right deal, that there was no urgency to make a swap given his remaining club control, and specifying that the majority of the league has shown at least some level of interest in the right-hander.

Cease is coming off a down season that saw him post a 4.58 ERA with a slightly diminished 27.3% strikeout rate. That’s down only by his lofty standards; he punched out 30.1% of his opponents a year prior while pitching to a sparkling 2.20 ERA that netted him a runner-up finish in American League Cy Young voting.

While last year’s ERA was unsightly, Cease still missed bats at a high level, sat just under 96 mph in terms of average fastball velocity, and notched a well above-average 13.6% swinging-strike rate. He’s also made a full slate of starts in each of the past four seasons, leading the Majors with 109 games started since 2020. Add in that Cease is projected for an eminently affordable $8.8MM salary in arbitration this winter (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and is controllable through the 2025 season, and his appeal becomes even more apparent.

Any team to acquire Cease would surely view him as a prime rebound candidate whom they can control for two seasons before recouping some prospect value in the form of a qualifying offer. An extension with Cease always remains a possibility, albeit perhaps a faint one. Clients of the Boras Corporation tend to test the open market, though there are plenty of examples of Boras clients who have instead signed extensions (e.g. Xander Bogaerts, Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez — among others).

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