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Kona Takahashi To Be Posted This Offseason

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Nippon Professional Baseball’s Seibu Lions announced overnight that they will post Kona Takahashi for MLB clubs this offseason. The news isn’t necessarily shocking, as it was reported back in August that the Lions were likely to post Takahashi this winter.

Takahashi, 29 in February, pitched to a solid 3.04 ERA in 24 starts for the Lions this past season. He struck out only 14.3% of his opponents in 148 innings of work, however, and his 2024 season was limited to just 15 starts at the highest level of NPB play when he posted a 3.87 ERA in 81 1/3 innings of work last year and saw his velocity dip below his previous career norms. Takahashi’s numbers in his platform season aren’t too dissimilar from those of southpaw Shinnosuke Ogasawara last season, who posted a 3.12 ERA in 24 starts with a 13.6% strikeout rate in his final NPB season before he landed a two-year, $3.5MM guarantee with the Nationals this past offseason.

Ogasawara spent much of his season at the Triple-A level and struggled when he did pitch in the majors, with a 6.98 ERA in 38 2/3 innings of work. While Ogasawara hasn’t worked out in the majors at this point, that doesn’t necessarily mean Takahashi will follow in his footsteps. After all, Takahashi did enjoy back-to-back dominant seasons with the Lions in 2022 and ’23. Those years, he posted a combined ERA of 2.20 while striking batters out at a higher clip, though even those elevated numbers capped out at 19.2% in 2023.

It’s not unheard of for NPB players to see their strikeout rate tick upward when they reach the majors, which is less contact-oriented than NPB. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, for example, struck out 26.6% of his opponents in his final NPB season and has a career 29.1% strikeout rate in the majors to this point. With that being said, there were just 11 qualified starters in the majors this year who punched out less than 20% of their opponents. Among them, only Michael Wacha and Zack Littell mustered an ERA below 4.00.

That reality casts Takahashi as more of a back-end starter or swing man at the big league level, and while it’s possible there’s an organization that thinks they can help him take a step forward it seems likely he’ll be relegated to a relatively small multi-year deal or perhaps even a non-guaranteed deal. Even with that likely deflated price tag, the process by which he’ll come to the majors is the same as it is for any other NPB pitcher who hasn’t yet reached free agency. Once he’s been officially posted for MLB clubs, which likely won’t happen until later this month or early December, he’ll have 45 days to reach a deal in the majors.

If a deal isn’t reached, he’ll remain in Japan and won’t be eligible to be posted again until next offseason. If Takahashi does work out a deal, the acquiring club will have to pay a posting fee to the Lions depending on the size of Takahashi’s contract. For contracts worth $25MM or less, that translates to a fee worth 20% of the total guarantee. A minor league contract, meanwhile, would see the Lions recoup 25% of the value of Takahashi’s signing bonus and an additional fee if Takahashi were to be added to his new club’s MLB roster.

MLB Mailbag: Freddy Peralta, Sonny Gray, Bichette, Tucker, Cubs

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MLBTR's annual Top 50 Free Agents list comes out Thursday evening!  We'll also be launching our free agent prediction contest at that time.

This week's subscriber mailbag covers possible Freddy Peralta and Sonny Gray trades, how the 2026-27 lockout might affect free agency this winter, where Bo Bichette will sign if not Toronto, the chances the Dodgers land Kyle Tucker, and how the Cubs will approach the loss of Tucker as well as a rotation upgrade.

Morris asks:

What would a realistic trade with Milwaukee for Freddy Peralta look like for the Braves? While I would love to see Cease in a Braves' uni, I think he may get a much better deal elsewhere with Atlanta's seeming insistence on being "logical" with every free agent (cue Friedman's famous quote). Milwaukee has a penchant for really getting something extra out of pitchers, and Peralta is a finished product who will be too expensive for them to keep much longer. Would something like Bryce Elder (Milwaukee could absolutely figure out how to make him better), a top-15 pitching prospect, and a top-30 position-player-prospect get the deal done?

At one point in our free agent deliberations, we had Dylan Cease signing a three-year, $93MM deal with two opt-outs.  We were having a bit of a hard time giving Cease the long-term contract he's likely seeking, mostly because of his 4.55 ERA.  For the most part, we've gotten past those reservations and expect Cease to sign for perhaps seven years, as Aaron Nola did coming off a 4.46 regular season mark.

It should be noted that the Braves were competitive in the bidding for Nola, so we can't completely rule out Alex Anthopoulos going long for the Georgia-native Cease.  But it's also true that in eight years atop the Braves' front office, Anthopoulos' biggest free agent deal in both years and dollars was Marcell Ozuna's four-year, $65MM pact in February 2021.  I agree that Cease feels unlikely in Atlanta.

On September 30th, Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote, "The Braves could use another reliable veteran — someone in the mold of Charlie Morton as a pitcher who can provide steadiness, leadership and consistent innings."  The thinking is that with Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Spencer Strider locked in, the Braves need reliability more than they need a front of the rotation guy.  In my Top 50 picks, I've got the Braves signing Chris Bassitt.  I also find the idea of a paid-down Sonny Gray acquisition to be plausible.

But there's nothing that precludes Anthopoulos from thinking bigger and renting Peralta for a year, regardless of whether they can eventually extend him.

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Shane Bieber To Exercise Player Option

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Shane Bieber has surprisingly exercised his $16MM option to remain with the Blue Jays, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. He’s passing on a $4MM buyout, so he’ll pick up an extra $12MM to remain in Toronto for a second season.

The decision removes one of the better starting pitchers from the free agent market. Bieber was midway through a Tommy John rehab when he hit free agency for the first time in his career last offseason. He re-signed with the Guardians, then the only organization he’d known, on a two-year deal that allowed him to opt out after season one. Bieber was on a minor league rehab assignment when the trade deadline rolled around. Cleveland, then believing they were out of contention, traded him to Toronto for pitching prospect Khal Stephen.

The Blue Jays made one of the more fascinating risk-reward decisions of the deadline. They surrendered a legitimate prospect for a potential rental starter who hadn’t pitched in an MLB game in more than 14 months. It worked out well, as Bieber returned as the #3 caliber starter he had been with the Guards in 2023. He made seven regular season starts and turned in a 3.57 earned run average across 40 1/3 innings. Bieber fanned an above-average 23.3% of opposing hitters against an excellent 4.4% walk rate. He looked fully healthy and averaged 92.6 MPH on his four-seam fastball — his best velocity since 2021.

Bieber added another 18 2/3 frames over five postseason appearances. He pitched pretty well overall, allowing nine runs (eight earned) with 18 punchouts against six free passes. Bieber did surrender three playoff home runs, including the World Series-deciding Will Smith longball in extra innings of Game 7. It ended in disappointment, but Bieber was generally effective for the Jays both in the regular season and October.

That seemingly positioned him well for a return free agent trip this winter. Bieber turns 31 in May. While he’s unlikely to recapture the ace form that earned him the AL Cy Young award in the shortened 2020 season, he’d certainly have gotten plenty of interest as a mid-rotation starter who is still young for a free agent. A nine-figure deal didn’t seem entirely out of the question. At the very least, he looked set for a higher average annual value on a two- or three-year guarantee that allowed him to opt out after the first season.

The $12MM difference between the option price and the buyout is well below market value for a pitcher of Bieber’s caliber even if he were determined to take a one-year deal. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that’s less than Walker Buehler, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Alex Cobb, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano pulled on free agent contracts last winter. It’s a few million dollars above the guarantees signed by Michael Soroka ($9MM) and Michael Lorenzen ($7MM).

Bieber will nevertheless lock that in and try to help the Jays get over the top in 2026 after their heartbreaking near miss. Only his camp knows the specific reasoning behind that decision. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible he’s hopeful of hammering out a longer-term deal with the Jays. He’s clearly comfortable with the city and the organization. However, there hasn’t been any reporting to suggest the sides have opened extension talks, much less made significant progress. That’s not to say it’s impossible that such conversations have taken place behind the scenes, but the option decision is a huge development for the team.

Toronto had been facing the free agent departures of Bieber, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt in the rotation. They’re balancing their starting pitching needs against their desire to retain Bo Bichette, who could command a $200MM+ contract that makes him the second highest-paid player in the free agent class. Bieber voluntarily locking in a below-market salary to rejoin Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage and José Berríos is a major boost. They’ll still look to add at least one more starter, but this could give the Jays more flexibility to make a competitive offer to Bichette and/or upgrade the late innings.

Image courtesy of John Sokolowski, Imagn Images.

White Sox’s GM Chris Getz Discusses Free Agency, Luis Robert

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The White Sox remain amidst a full rebuild on the heels of their third straight 100-plus loss season. Unsurprisingly, they don’t seem to be in for an exciting winter.

General manager Chris Getz downplayed the possibility of making any multi-year free agent pickups. “Free agency is an avenue to bring in players to help in the win total, but to go beyond this upcoming season I think would be a little premature considering the state of our club right now,” the GM told Scott Merkin of MLB.com. The Sox gave out one multi-year free agent contract over Getz’s first two offseasons — the two-year, $15MM deal to bring Erick Fedde back from Korea in 2023.

Chicago handed out six major league free agent contracts last winter. They were all one-year deals worth no more than $5MM. The long-term books are wide open. Their only commitments for 2027 are a $14.5MM salary for Andrew Benintendi to close his five-year deal and a $2MM buyout on a $20MM club option to Luis Robert Jr. The White Sox could afford to make multi-year commitments even if they’re obviously not going to be in the Kyle Tucker bidding. It appears they’re content to essentially sit out mid-tier free agency yet again.

Perhaps the Sox will find another situation like the Fedde one that leads them to at least consider a modest two-year offer. Cody Ponce, Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin all pitched in Asia this past season but could explore a return to MLB. Ponce would seemingly have the best chance of that group to land a two-year contract. A rehabbing injured pitcher like Jordan Montgomery, Griffin Canning or Nestor Cortes could pull a cheap, backloaded two-year deal.

Merkin writes in a separate column that the White Sox will keep an eye on the market for a veteran starter who can take a few innings off the plate of their in-house arms. That could simply be on a one-year deal. The Sox tried that route with a $5MM signing of Martín Pérez last winter. It didn’t really work, as Pérez was limited to 10 starts by forearm and shoulder injuries. He pitched well — probably better than the Sox expected — but wasn’t able to eat many innings or net them a lottery ticket prospect at the deadline. Candidates for that kind of contract this winter include Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin, Michael Lorenzen and old friend Jose Quintana.

It seems likely to be a quiet winter on the trade front as well. Getz made the biggest move of his GM tenure when he shipped out Garrett Crochet for four prospects last offseason. They don’t have anyone close to that on the trade block now. Robert is their most notable veteran player, but he’s unlikely to move until closer to the deadline. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored when the Sox exercised their option this morning, other teams are unlikely to meet Chicago’s high asking price on the center fielder coming off another inconsistent and injury-plagued season.

Robert showed enough in the second half for the White Sox to roll the dice on a $20MM salary. Getz said this evening that while the front office won’t close the door on any trade opportunities, they’re expecting him to be on the team going into next season. “We’re planning on (Robert) being in a White Sox uniform,” Getz told reporters (via Merkin). “What he did in the second half was very indicative of what he’s capable of doing and how that can impact our team. … If there are opportunities for us to strengthen the organization, we’ll have those conversations. But as it stands today, we’re very much preparing for having Luis Robert play center field.”

If not Robert, there probably won’t be any headline-grabbing White Sox trades. They have an uphill battle finding any interest in Benintendi, who is owed $31MM over the next two seasons. They could find a modest return for veteran corner outfielder Mike Tauchman, utility infielder Lenyn Sosa or third catcher Korey Lee.

Marlins To Hire Chris Hess, Corbin Day As Assistant Hitting Coaches

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The Marlins will hire Chris Hess and Corbin Day as assistant hitting coaches. WEEI’s Rob Bradford first reported the Hess hiring, while Christina De Nicola of MLB.com was first on the Day addition. Derek Shoman, their assistant hitting coach from this past season, is leaving the organization to take the lead hitting coach job with the White Sox.

The 30-year-old Hess is a University of Rhode Island product who was drafted by the Yankees in 2017. He played a couple seasons in A-ball before retuning to URI as an assistant coach. Hess joined the professional ranks with the Red Sox organization in 2021. He spent the last two years as the hitting instructor with Boston’s Double-A affiliate, where he worked with the likes of Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell. This is his first job on an MLB staff.

It’s also the first MLB coaching opportunity for Day. He played two seasons of NAIA college ball at Mount Mercy University in Cedar Rapids, Iowa between 2018-19. Day then spent a few seasons coaching JUCO ball in his home state. His first professional opportunity also came in Cedar Rapids, as the Twins hired him as hitting coach with their High-A affiliate in that city. Day moved up to the Double-A Wichita coaching staff in 2024 and worked for Minnesota’s big league team in an advance scouting /game-planning role this year.

Pedro Guerrero was Miami’s lead hitting coach this year. Assuming he returns for a second season under skipper Clayton McCullough, he’ll lead what is now a three-person hitting staff.

William Contreras Undergoes Finger Surgery

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Brewers catcher William Contreras underwent a minor procedure to repair his broken left middle finger, president of baseball operations Matt Arnold told reporters (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). It’ll keep him from participating in baseball activities for 5-6 weeks but is not expected to impact his availability for Spring Training.

Contreras played through the fracture for the entire 2025 season. The injury is believed to have occurred during the ’24 campaign, though the team didn’t announce the presence of a break until this past May. Contreras did not spend any time on the injured list and has not had a single IL stint in his career. Only J.T. Realmuto logged more starts or innings behind the dish this year.

The injury did seem to weigh down Contreras a little bit at the plate. He hit .260/.355/.399 with 17 home runs through 659 trips. That’s still strong production, especially from a catcher, but is below the .285/.366/.462 combined slash he posted over his first two seasons in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee declined a $12MM option on Contreras this afternoon. That’s a procedural move that isn’t related to the injury. He remains eligible for arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $11.1MM salary. Contreras collected a $100K option buyout, so any arbitration salary under $11.9MM would mean the Brew Crew saved themselves a little bit of money with the option decision. Contreras will go through arbitration once more and is on track to hit free agency during the 2027-28 offseason.

Royals Sign Salvador Perez To Two-Year Extension

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Salvador Perez will remain in Kansas City for at least another two seasons. The Royals announced an extension with the nine-time All-Star that covers the 2026-27 campaigns. It’s reportedly a $25MM guarantee for the Beverly Hills Sports Council client, though it actually amounts to $23MM in new money. Perez had been guaranteed a $2MM buyout on a $13.5MM club option for the upcoming season.

There’s a decent amount of deferred money that reduces the net present value. Perez receives a $7MM signing bonus that will be paid in annual installments between 2030-34. He makes $9MM salaries for the next two seasons, with $2.5MM annually deferred until 2030-34. The Royals will only pay Perez $13MM during the next two years. Meanwhile, the decent-sized signing bonus ensures he’d get that money even if a work stoppage threatens players’ salaries in 2027.

General manager J.J. Picollo said at the end of September that the Royals would bring Perez back, though he left open the possibility of a new contract rather than simply exercising the option. That’s indeed how things played out. Teams and players have until Thursday to decide on all option decisions. That presumably served as an unofficial deadline for the Royals and Perez to get a new deal in place. The deferrals save the Royals $7MM next year compared to the option value, while the catcher locks in more money down the line with some protection against a lockout.

Perez, 36 in May, is headed into his 15th full season in the big leagues. He’s obviously one of the most accomplished players in team history and seems likely to be a Royal for life. He’s seventh in franchise history in games played and trails only George Brett in both home runs and runs batted in. Perez isn’t going to make up the nearly 600 RBI he’d need to run down Brett, but he should become the franchise’s home run leader next season barring a significant injury. He has 303 longballs, placing him 14 behind the Hall of Famer’s career total.

A healthy Perez should still easily hit 15+ homers in 2026. He drilled 30 round-trippers this year and has eclipsed 20 homers in all but one full schedule dating back to 2014. The lone exception was the ’19 season which he missed due to Tommy John surgery. Perez trailed only Cal Raleigh, Shea Langeliers and Hunter Goodman in home runs among primary catchers this past season. Raleigh is the only other catcher who drove in at least 100 runs.

While Perez remains a legitimate power threat, the flaws in his game are equally well known. He has never been a patient hitter, and he’s coming off his third sub-.300 OBP in the past four seasons. Perez hit .236/.284/.446 across 641 trips to the plate. The overall slash line is a little worse than league average despite the gaudy homer and RBI tallies. It is still strong production from the catcher position, but Perez has begun to branch out to first base or designated hitter a little more often as he has gotten into his mid-30s.

The five-time Gold Glove winner still has a plus arm and did an excellent job shutting down the running game. Pitch framing metrics have panned his receiving work throughout his career. That remained the case in 2025. Statcast also graded him as the second-worst blocking catcher in the sport, better only than Marlins’ rookie Agustín Ramírez (who somehow committed 19 passed balls in 73 games).

There’s very little chance that Wins Above Replacement models are going to look favorably on this deal. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference had Perez only marginally above replacement this year. The Royals have long valued the player a lot more highly than public advanced metrics would suggest. He has always been a revered clubhouse presence and fan favorite, and he won the Roberto Clemente award in 2024 for his contributions in the community (both in Kansas City and his native Venezuela). He served as the bridge between their 2015 World Series team and the ’24 club that returned to the playoffs after a nine-year drought.

They weren’t able to get to October this past season. A lack of offense and some late-season rotation injuries combined to drop them to an 82-80 record. Perez will be back as the primary catcher and should split first base/DH work with Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone. The Royals will want to work rookie Carter Jensen into the mix more frequently behind the dish. The 22-year-old was called up in September after K.C. traded longtime backup Freddy Fermin to the Padres at the deadline. Jensen hit .300 with three homers in his first 20 games, an impressive follow-up to a .290/.377/.501 season at Triple-A Omaha.

The Royals have around $140MM in estimated commitments for next season, according to RosterResource. Perez joins Bobby Witt Jr. ($19MM), Seth Lugo ($20MM), Michael Wacha ($14MM) and Cole Ragans ($7.5MM) as their players with contracts for 2027. They’re also locked in to at least a $2MM buyout on a club option for Carlos Estévez.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com first reported the $25MM guarantee, the $7MM bonus, and the presence of deferrals. The Associated Press had the specific deferral structure. Image courtesy of William Purnell, Imagn Images.

Padres Decline Options On Elias Díaz, Tyler Wade, Kyle Hart

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The Padres have turned down options on three players, per Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune. They have declined a $7MM mutual option for catcher Elias Díaz, going for the $2MM buyout instead. Infielder/outfielder Tyler Wade’s $1MM club option has been turned down in favor of a $50K buyout. Left-hander Kyle Hart’s $5MM club option has been turned down in favor of a $500K buyout. All three will head to free agency.

None of the three moves comes as a major shock. The Padres signed Díaz last offseason, a one-year deal with a $3.5MM guarantee for his age-34 campaign. That took the form of a $1.5MM salary and a $2MM buyout on the $7MM mutual option. It’s been over a decade since both sides of a mutual option were exercised. They are usually a way for the team to kick part of the payment down the road. That appears to be the case here, as the option buyout was more than the salary in this case.

Díaz got into 106 games for the Padres, slashing .204/.270/.337 for a 74 wRC+. His defense was considered around par. With Díaz now removed, the Padres are down to two backstops on the roster. Freddy Fermin projects as the top option. Luis Campusano is still there but the club doesn’t appear to trust him behind the plate, as they opted to give playing time to older veterans like Díaz and Martín Maldonado, even though Campusano was crushing in the minors. It wouldn’t be surprising if Campusano were traded, now that he’s out of options, with the Friars circling back to Díaz or some other veteran.

Wade, 31 in November, has long been a glove-first utility guy in the majors. He got into 60 games for the Padres this year and played all the outfield slots as well as the three infield positions to the left of first base. However, he hit just .206/.309/.252.

The Padres signed Hart in February, hoping he could build off a strong year in Korea. Pitching for the KBO’s NC Dinos in 2024, he posted a 2.69 ERA in 157 innings. The Friars brought him back to North America on a one-year deal with a $1.5MM guarantee. That included a $1MM salary this year and a $500K buyout on a $5MM club option.

Unfortunately, his return to the majors didn’t go smoothly. He logged 43 big league innings with a 5.86 earned run average this year. His 20.7% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate were decent but he was mostly used in a low leverage swingman role. The Friars need pitching but they have a tight budget and Hart didn’t perform well, so it’s understandable that they haven’t given him a raise.

Photo courtesy of Denis Poroy, Imagn Images

Pirates Place Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero, Jack Little On Waivers

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The Pirates have placed three players on waivers. One of them is outfielder Ji Hwan Bae, per Danny Demilio of Pittsburgh Baseball Now. The other two are infielder Liover Peguero and right-hander Jack Little, per Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

At one point, the now-26-year-old Bae was a high-profile international signing who ranked among the organization’s better farmhands. He’s appeared in parts of four big league seasons but has never found his stride. The South Korea native carries a meek .223/.294/.293 line in 514 trips to the plate at the MLB level. He’s a good runner, swiping 37 bags in 49 tries (75.6%) and sitting in the 82nd percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed, but Bae has fanned in more than one-quarter of his plate appearances and sits well below average in terms of exit velocity, hard-hit rate and other batted-ball metrics.

Originally a middle infielder, Bae never developed into a passable option at shortstop due in large part to subpar arm strength. The Bucs have given him plenty of run at second base and in center field — more the latter in recent seasons — but he hasn’t drawn quality grades at either position. He’s continually posted strong numbers in Triple-A (.305/.389/.451 in 1109 plate appearances) and has a minor league option remaining.

Peguero was an even more highly touted prospect than Bae. Originally acquired from the D-backs in exchange for Starling Marte, he’s a former top-100 prospect whom the organization at one point viewed as a possible shortstop of the future. In an all-too-common refrain for Pirates position prospects, however, his bat never came around. Peguero has seen action in four big league seasons but has mustered only a .227/.278/.368 slash line in 315 turns at the plate.

Unlike Bae, Peguero has also looked overmatched at the top minor league level. Outside of a late-2023 cameo in Triple-A where he smacked a pair of homers in 30 promising plate appearances, Peguero has produced well below-average numbers with the Pirates’ top affiliate in Indianapolis. He’s a .253/.317/.403 hitter in 888 plate appearances there, including a career-worst .247/.313/.375 showing in 75 games with Indy this season. Baseball America and other outlets have lauded his quality defensive tools but also noted a penchant for slipping into poor mechanical stretches that lead to far too many throwing errors. Peguero is out of minor league options.

The 27-year-old Little came to the Pirates via waivers in August. He made his MLB debut with the Dodgers in 2025. Los Angeles selected Little out of Stanford with its fifth-round pick back in 2019. He’s pitched only three MLB innings and posted a 4.06 ERA with a 20.2% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate in 62 relief innings between the two organizations’ Triple-A affiliates in 2025.

Little sits 94 mph with his four-seamer and complements the pitch with a slider and splitter — both in the mid-80s. He’s never been a top-ranked prospect in L.A.’s system but does have a pair of minor league options remaining and decent track record in the minors.

Krall: Reds’ 2026 Payroll Will Be “Around The Same” As 2025 Levels

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The Reds enter the offseason likely to seek bullpen help and multiple upgrades within the lineup, but they won’t have an especially lofty budget for achieving those goals. President of baseball operations Nick Krall said Tuesday that 2026’s budget “will be around the same as our payroll from 2025” (link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic).

Cincinnati opened the 2025 season with a roughly $112MM payroll and finished around $116MM, per Cot’s Contracts. RosterResource pegs their end-of-season number a bit higher, at about $119MM.

Regardless, running back the same payroll gives the Reds a bit of spending power but not all that much. They’re currently projected for a payroll around $91MM, per RosterResource. That’s before option decisions on relievers Scott Barlow and Brent Suter. Barlow’s $6.5MM option seems likely to be bought out. Suter is a bit more of a borderline call at $3MM but could still be cut loose (or re-signed to a restructured deal with lighter immediate payroll implications, as was the case for the Cincinnati native this time last year).

The 2025 Reds nabbed the final NL Wild Card spot and saw an attendance increase of about 147,000 over their 2024 levels. However, the 2025 payroll was up about $20MM over the prior season, so much of the increased attendance revenue was offset by a more expensive on-field product. Reds ownership has never trotted out an Opening Day payroll north of roughly $127MM — though their prorated $55.5MM Opening Day payroll in 2020 indicates they’d have set a new franchise-high were it not for that year’s shortened schedule.

Cincinnati currently has just three players signed to guaranteed contracts for the 2026 season. Ace Hunter Greene will earn $8MM, while third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is owed $7MM and catcher Jose Trevino is owed $5.25MM. Assuming the options on Barlow, Suter and outfielder Austin Hays (a $12MM mutual option) are bought out, their only other financial commitments will be in arbitration. The Reds already outrighted infielder Santiago Espinal and reliever Ian Gibaut, sparing themselves a projected $4.6MM in salary between the two of them.

The Reds still have 12 arbitration-eligible players even after that pair of outrights (effectively non-tenders), but the only players projected to earn more than $5MM are right-hander Brady Singer ($11.9MM) and catcher Tyler Stephenson ($6.4MM). Any of Gavin Lux ($5MM), Sam Moll ($1.2MM) or Will Benson ($1.7MM) could be non-tendered or traded to buy a little extra breathing room. Speculatively, the pitching-rich Reds could swap out Singer for a comparably priced veteran bat to plug into their outfield (e.g. Taylor Ward).

Krall has downplayed the possibility of trading a starter, but the quintet of Greene, Singer, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and top prospect Chase Burns is strong as it is, and well-regarded young arms like Chase Petty and Rhett Lowder loom as rotation possibilities as well.

Adding to the bullpen also figures to be on Krall’s to-do list. Closer Emilio Pagan is a free agent. Holdovers Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips all showed well in 2025 (Phillips in a fairly small 25-inning sample), while young flamethrowers Luis Mey and Zach Maxwell provide some upside. Still, there’s not much end-of-the-game certainty among the group, making a few reasonably priced bullpen pickups seem likely.

Depending on further non-tenders and some potential trades, it seems the Reds probably have room for one big-ticket item. A major bat like Pete Alonso or Cincinnati native Kyle Schwarber would be highly out of character, but there’s probably enough payroll flexibility to make that type of splash if the other moves are minimally priced. The likelier outcome would be a handful of more measured, mid-range additions to the roster, likely with a bit of wiggle room left for in-season maneuverings like we saw with this summer’s acquisitions of Zack Littell and Miguel Andujar.

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