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Hyun Soo Kim On MLB Future

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Outfielder Hyun Soo Kim returned to his native South Korea upon conclusion of the regular season and met with the media to discuss what was, in his own words, a “disappointing” second season in the Majors (link via Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency). Despite a rough campaign split between the Orioles and the Phillies, the 29-year-old Kim made it clear that his hope is to secure another opportunity to prove himself in the Major Leagues.

“It’s not something I can control,” Kim told reporters. “Obviously, I’d love to stay in the majors. But I felt my determination alone can’t do the trick. I’ll just try to do the best I can.”

Kim signed a two-year, $7MM contract with the Orioles in the 2015-16 offseason on the heels of an amazing nine-year career in the Korea Baseball Organization. In 4768 plate appearances with the KBO’s Doosan Bears, Kim batted .318/.406/.488 with 142 home runs, earning the nickname “The Hitting Machine” along the way. That nickname looked rather appropriate after Kim’s first season in Baltimore; he slashed a hearty .302/.382/.420 with six homers, 16 doubles and a triple in 346 plate appearance with the Orioles.

Kim, though, was shielded almost entirely from left-handed pitching in the Majors, and a slow start to the 2017 season (plus Trey Mancini’s early breakout) led to even more inconsistent playing time. He hit just .232/.305/.288 in 141 PAs with the O’s before being traded to the Phillies in late July — largely as a means of offsetting some of the salary of Jeremy Hellickson, who went from Philadelphia to Baltimore in that deal.

Playing time was even more scarce for Kim in Philadelphia, as the Phillies were evaluating younger options such as Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr and Rhys Hoskins in the outfield corners throughout the season’s second half. Ultimately, Kim’s sophomore campaign in the Majors produced a paltry .231/.307/.292 triple slash.

Kim took ownership of his struggles when speaking to the Korean media, though he did indicate that his part-time/platoon usage was a role to which he had a difficult time adjusting. “It was frustrating when I’d get three hits one day and sit on the bench the next day,” Kim admitted. “But it’s all on me. I just didn’t have it.”

Kim didn’t dismiss the notion of accepting a minor league contract when asked about a possible return to the Majors, but he noted that it would depend on the composition of the interested team’s roster. His time in Philadelphia made clear to him that at-bats will be difficult to come by on an up-and-coming team that is rife with outfield prospects ready for big league evaluation. A clearer path to playing time than the one he had in Philadelphia sounds as if it’ll be important to Kim when weighing offers this winter.

If there are ultimately no offers to his liking, it stands to reason that he would draw widespread interest from KBO clubs in free agency. But, Kim is still relatively young — he’ll play all of next season at the age of 30 — and is just a year removed from a 116 OPS+ and 120 wRC+ in nearly 350 MLB plate appearances. He’s demonstrated solid plate discipline and contact skills in the Majors as well, walking in 9.9 percent of his plate appearances while striking out at a 16.6 percent clip. While his defense didn’t grade out well in left field, there’s still reason to believe he could be a productive bat — at least in the same platoon capacity he had with the O’s in 2016.

Phillies Interview Chip Hale

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  • As the Phillies weigh a new managerial hire, Heyman says the team is not giving out much information. But he notes that Athletics bench coach Chip Hale has been interviewed. Red Sox coach Gary DiSarcina is receiving some consideration, Heyman adds.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

As they continued to build back from a full roster teardown, the Phillies finished the 2017 season with a 66-96 record, good for last in the NL East. But their rebuilding process has begun to bear fruit. Thanks in part to contributions from some exciting young rookies, Philadelphia finished the season strong by posting a winning record in September (15-13). The team is now free of the veteran encumbrances that trailed its last competitive window, so it’ll face some questions on how to allocate financial resources.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Odubel Herrera, OF: $26.4MM through 2021 ($11.5MM club option for 2022, $2.5MM buyout)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

[Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart; Philadelphia Phillies Payroll Overview]

The Phillies already announced in late September that Pete Mackanin will not return as manager in 2018, but will instead assume a role in the front office. Part of the organization’s focus this offseason will be to find a replacement manager who can get the most out of a very young group of players as they develop at the major-league level. Based on their record after the All-Star break (37-38), it seems as though the worst could finally be behind the Phillies after five consecutive losing seasons. Whoever GM Matt Klentak hires as Mackanin’s replacement will likely be managing the next contending team in Philadelphia.

In addition to steps forward for players like Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr and Aaron Nola, the Phillies also saw impressive contributions from many players promoted during the 2017 season. Rhys Hoskins, Andrew Knapp, Jorge Alfaro and Nick Williams all showed well in their first taste of major-league action, with Hoskins in particular looking like a star. Stud shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford saw some playing time in September as well; it’s widely expected that he and fellow infield top prospect Scott Kingery will make major contributions at some point in 2018. Put simply, a major-league club that saw a lot of success from young players this year will see even more reinforcements next season. It’s also worth wondering whether the Phillies will make a push to extend some of these young players. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd already mentioned Nola as an extension candidate. Beyond him, Altherr, Hoskins and Williams have all shown enough talent to be worth a look.

As the youth movement reaches its peak in Philadelphia, the payroll has reached its valley. The only contract on the books for the Phillies in 2018 is that of Herrera, who stands to make just $3.35MM. They owe $3.5MM more in the form of buyouts and debts to former players, for a total of less than $6MM guaranteed dollars. Beyond that, only five of their players are even eligible for arbitration, and most of them are either potential trade fodder or non-tender candidates. Given that the Phillies have averaged over $144MM in payroll over the past seven seasons, a big decisions facing the Phillies this winter is how they ought to allocate their dollars. It’s worth mentioning that they’ve got the payroll space and prospect depth to acquire Giancarlo Stanton, should the organization decide he’s a good fit. It will be interesting to see whether they give out any long-term contracts to free agents this season, or opt to make shorter commitments now and wait until next season when the market is flush with high-end talent. They’ll be one of the few teams who’ll be able to afford the services of 2018 free agent juggernauts like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Donaldson and Charlie Blackmon, any of whom might be worth waiting to negotiate with.

It’s possible that one or both of Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez will open the 2018 season in a different uniform. Galvis stands to make around $7.4MM in arbitration this offseason. Rather than pay that hefty figure for a shortstop with a .287 career OBP, the Phillies would probably prefer to see what they have in top prospect J.P. Crawford. While Hernandez is still under control for three more seasons, the Phillies will likely try to get a look at Kingery at some point in 2018. This could make Hernandez a potential trade asset as well, if the right offer comes along. With such a minuscule payroll, however, they certainly won’t face any pressure to move either player.

With a high-upside youngster tabbed for each position on the diamond, the Phillies are most likely to concentrate their financial resources on pitching. Their starters as a group finished in the bottom third of baseball in ERA last season, and their young staff could benefit from having a seasoned veteran in the rotation. They have the money to spend on a top-of-the market starter like Jake Arrieta, if the front office wants to be aggressive, or any other open-market hurler that holds appeal. Another option would be to make a big push for the coveted Shohei Otani. Indeed there are 29 other teams that will be doing the same, but the potential to join an organization with such a bright future could be a draw for the Japanese phenom. The Phillies will probably want to add a couple of veteran arms to their bullpen as well. Adam Morgan had an incredible second half and cemented himself as a clear fixture behind Hector Neris, but overall the relief corps is in need of support.

Philadelphia had some success last year in taking on bad contracts, eating the salaries of those players and then flipping them for prospects. They acquired left-hander McKenzie Mills for Howie Kendrick, and got infielder Jose Gomez along with right-handers J.D. Hammer and Alejandro Requena in a trade that sent Pat Neshek to the Rockies. Mills, Gomez and Hammer all currently rank within the Phillies’ top 30 prospects (via MLB Pipeline), with Gomez leading the way at #16 in the organization. In essence, the Phillies used their financial muscle to “buy” some upside prospects. It’s a sound strategy. If any of these prospects pan out, it will be as though the Phillies used their extra payroll space last year to save money in the future; more cost-controlled players on the major league club means fewer dollars spent on free agents. It’s easy to imagine the club employing the same strategy during the coming season.

Following five losing seasons and a complete teardown of the major-league roster, the Phillies’ farm is stacked. Even after promoting three top-100 overall prospects last season in Hoskins, Crawford and Alfaro, their system still has four more in Mickey Moniak, Sixto Sanchez, Adam Haseley and Kingery. They also own the #3 overall pick in 2018’s June amateur draft. This abundance of talent in the minors will give the Phillies a wealth of options when they decide to make a playoff push, including the ability to use some of these youngsters as trade chips to fill holes on the roster with established major league talent.

As it stands right now, the Phillies will open the 2018 season with Aaron Nola at the top of the rotation. Behind Nola, however, likely follows a messy group of struggling youngsters. Ben Lively, Mark Leiter, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Jake Thompson and Nick Pivetta all endured major ups and downs last season. Even if they don’t manage to add an elite starter like Arrieta through free agency, they’ll probably opt to sign at least one or two mid-tier options. Jason Vargas, Scott Feldman, Jaime Garcia, Doug Fister and Andrew Cashner all come to mind as pitchers who could probably be had on short-term contracts.

With veteran Andres Blanco set to depart in free agency, the Phillies will need a backup infielder to open the season. Blanco himself could be brought back at a cheap price, but he performed below replacement level last year. Outside of Kingery, Philadelphia’s farm system doesn’t really have any major league-ready middle infield options. Stephen Drew, Erick Aybar, Danny Espinosa and Eric Sogard are some examples of cheap veterans they could use to fill in around the infield. On the other hand, they might simply opt to make a low-profile minor league signing instead. They could even test their luck with the Rule 5 Draft; they had great success in identifying Herrera in 2014 and could try to strike gold again.

Third baseman Maikel Franco had a tremendously disappointing 2017 campaign, and it might be time to start looking for other long-term options at the hot corner.  Mike Moustakas represents the top option on this year’s free agent market. Todd Frazier is another third baseman they could look into. However, since the Phillies would be considered long shots to contend in 2018, they might be better off giving the 25-year old another chance next season, and explore the free agent market next year if he doesn’t bounce back. At that time, superstars Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson will become available for bidding.

The Phillies will be an interesting team to watch this offseason. They have the financial resources to sign big-name free agents and take on a large contract in a trade, but it’s just as easy to imagine them making only small, short term signings while they continue to evaluate high-upside youngsters at the MLB level. Either way, expect the Phillies to improve on their 2017 record next season. With the wealth of young talent in the organization, the club should be on the rise for several years to come.

Phillies Notes: Showalter, DiSarcina

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  • While discussing teams looking for managers, Cafardo makes the interesting comment that “the Phillies still have their sights on” Orioles skipper Buck Showalter.  Once Pete Mackanin was reassigned from the manager’s job in Philadelphia, there was some initial speculation about the Phils targeting Showalter given his ties to Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak.  Since then, however, the Phillies have seemingly moved onto other candidates, plus there’s the obvious obstacle of Showalter still being under contract to the Orioles for one more season.

    [SOURCE LINK]
  • Jackie Bradley Jr. could be a big commodity on the trade market, as Cafardo opines that the Red Sox could deal Bradley, move Andrew Benintendi to center field and then sign J.D. Martinez to play left field.  Boston’s “need for power is so critical,” Cafardo writes, that the Sox may have to take the hit on defense, not to mention the payroll hit of dealing Bradley (controlled via arbitration through the 2020 season) and spending big on Martinez.  Cafardo also noted Martinez as a potential Boston target in his column last week, citing the past relationship between Martinez and Dave Dombrowski from their time together in Detroit.  The Giants, Phillies, Royals and Braves are all listed as potential suitors if the Red Sox did shop Bradley, and several more teams would certainly check in on the 27-year-old.  Bradley took a step backwards at the plate this season, though he posted above-average hitting numbers in 2015-16 and is one of the game’s better defensive players.
  • While discussing teams looking for managers, Cafardo makes the interesting comment that “the Phillies still have their sights on” Orioles skipper Buck Showalter.  Once Pete Mackanin was reassigned from the manager’s job in Philadelphia, there was some initial speculation about the Phils targeting Showalter given his ties to Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak.  Since then, however, the Phillies have seemingly moved onto other candidates, plus there’s the obvious obstacle of Showalter still being under contract to the Orioles for one more season.
  • Speaking of the Phillies job, Cafardo also notes that Red Sox bench coach Gary DiSarcina’s name has come up as a possible candidate.  DiSarcina worked for the Angels as a coach and front office assistant during Klentak’s stint with the club as an assistant GM.  The longtime former Angels infielder has several years of experience in a variety of front office, coaching and minor league managerial roles with the Halos and Red Sox.

Phillies Name Larry Bowa Senior Advisor To GM Matt Klentak

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The Phillies have moved bench coach Larry Bowa from the dugout to the front office, naming him senior advisor to GM Matt Klentak, per a team announcement. Bowa, it seems, will transition to a role similar to that of Pete Mackanin, who was surprisingly removed from his post as manager earlier this month.

The 71-year-old Bowa spent the first 12 seasons of his playing career with the Phillies from 1970-81. He also managed the Phils from 2001-04 and has been serving as the team’s bench coach and infield instructor since the 2014 season, working under both Ryne Sandberg and Mackanin. He won’t return for a fifth season in his current role, nor will he be considered for the managerial vacancy, but he’ll remain with the organization and continue to have some input on the direction of the club.

“Larry Bowa is a genuine Phillies icon and he has made enormous contributions to this franchise during his 33 years in uniform,” said Klentak in a press release announcing the move. “I have a tremendous amount of respect for what Larry has accomplished throughout his baseball career and I am thrilled that he has agreed to continue to impact the organization in this new role.”

Bowa himself also issued a statement: “Philadelphia has been my home for the last four decades and I bleed Phillies red. Whether it is at the major or minor league level, my number one goal is to help with the Phillies organization bring home another championship for our fans.”

Extension Candidate: Aaron Nola

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The Phillies have scrupulously maintained their future balance sheets, preferring not to make any commitments that might tie their hands in future seasons. But the organization has already made one exception, inking Odubel Herrera last winter, and could explore yet more extensions with core players this winter.

Aaron Nola | Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

One could probably make a case for a very early strike with one of the team’s less-experienced would-be stars — chief among them, Rhys Hoskins. But by far the likeliest candidate for a long-term deal is righty Aaron Nola, who was selected with the seventh overall pick of the 2014 draft and has since established himself as one of the game’s better young starters.

Nola, 24, reached the majors after just 30 minor-league appearances, showing quite well in his 13-start debut at just 22 years of age. Last year, though, he faded after a strong opening and ended the season facing injury questions. Nola ultimately avoided surgery for some UCL and flexor tendon issues and was able to rehabilitate through the problem over the offseason.

It’s easy to forget now, but entering the current season, nobody was quite sure what to expect from Nola. He responded with 168 innings of 3.54 ERA ball. Nola also racked up 9.9 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 along with a 49.8% ground-ball rate in his 27 starts, showing career-best numbers in average fastball velocity (92.5 mph) and swinging-strike rate (10.8%).

Looking at Nola’s overall body of work, it’s hard not to be impressed. While he did struggle to keep runs off the board in 2016, advanced metrics have basically loved him from day one. Through 356 2/3 MLB frames, he carries a 3.38 FIP, 3.33 xFIP, and 3.52 SIERA.

The hugely positive outlook on his future makes Nola a bargain, as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron suggested when ranking him 49th in all of baseball on his top 50 trade value rankings. Because he didn’t reach the Majors quite soon enough back in 2015, Nola will fall shy of Super Two qualification, meaning he’ll play at (or near) the league minimum in 2018 before reaching his three years of arbitration eligibility.

While Nola did take home over $3MM to sign out of LSU, he has another year to wait for significant Major League earnings. That means risk aplenty, which is true of any pitcher but perhaps especially so for Nola, given his prior injury scare. He and the team are aware of the details of the medical situation and thus can adequately account for the risk it entails, but that factor could also push him in the direction of weighing a contract extension.

It’s tempting to speak abstractly about a possible discount for the injury questions. In truth, though, the more interesting question is just what framework might be utilized as a starting point for talks. To this point, no pre-arbitration starter has scored a guarantee of over $40MM. Even Corey Kluber, a 2+ service-class pitcher like Nola, was promised $38.5MM over five years (while giving up two option years) in his 2015 contract. Kluber was more than five years older than Nola is now but also was coming off of a Cy Young Award at the time.

The Kluber deal largely fell in line with prior pre-arb starter contracts, though, and even moved the standard up a bit. Chris Sale ($32.5MM), Derek Holland ($28.5MM), and Trevor Cahill ($30.5MM) are a few of the prior 2+ service hurlers that took five-year deals with similar structures.

Though Nola has staked out a claim as a top-quality young starter, it’s hard to argue that he has shown more to this point than had Sale or Madison Bumgarner (who signed his own five-year, $35MM deal as a 1+ service-class player). Considerations of inflation could be somewhat offset by Nola’s health record, though his representatives would surely argue that his avoidance of surgery and a 2017 season free of arm issues render that a largely moot point.

Provisions could be worked in that would protect the team in the event of an elbow flare-up, such as the addition of cheap option years at the end of the pact. (For example, both Felix Hernandez and John Lackey have previously agreed to clauses that add a league-minimum option to the end of their deal in the event of Tommy John surgery) Or, perhaps the wealthy Phils would be willing mostly to look past Nola’s elbow questions in the hunt for upside, reasoning that the overall risk is minimal and that the open-market price for pitching has steadily risen in recent years and figures to do so between now and the point at which Nola himself would reach the open market.

The previously mentioned five-year structure would run through Nola’s age-29 season and buy out one free-agent year. That’s still a lucrative age at which to reach the open market, though the Phils may seek to add a club option or two that’d further delay his path to the open market. Reaching free agency in advance of his age-31 season would leave Nola with plenty of earning capacity, though tacking on a second club option (and thus delaying his free agency by three full years) could be a tough sell. Generally speaking, Nola and his reps at Paragon Sports would be weighing whether an immediate guarantee is worth forgoing the opportunity to reach free agency before his age-29 season — an age at which he’d almost certainly be one of the youngest starters on the market.

With a number of factors for both sides to weigh, it’ll be an interesting situation to watch if the Phillies and Nola do indeed sit down this winter. Nola could well become the latest Phillies player to secure a long-term commitment as part of the organization’s hopeful contending core, but his proximity to arbitration should reduce his urgency to take a deal to some extent.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Phillies Not Considering Amaro, Bowa For Managerial Opening

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  • At this point, at least, the Phillies are the only other team in the division preparing to find a new skipper. Ryan Lawrence of the Philly Voice updated the situation yesterday after some interesting names were suggested as possibilities for that opening. Former Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr., who has since joined the Red Sox coaching staff, is not a candidate for the position, says Lawrence (who expresses not a little incredulity at the proposition). Likewise, long-time Phillies baseball man Larry Bowa — once the skipper, most recently the team’s bench coach — isn’t going to take the helm. As Lawrence notes, GM Matt Klentak has cited a desire to find “a new voice in the dugout and a new style” of manager with this hire. The team has, however, considered at least one familiar face: third-base coach Juan Samuel was first in line for preliminary interviews, Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

Phillies Interested In Mike Redmond

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Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond is drawing interest from two manager-needy teams, the Phillies and Tigers, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. Redmond isn’t far removed from managing the Marlins, who went 155-207 on his watch from 2013-15. The former big league catcher played with the Marlins from 1998-2004, giving him familiarity with Tigers general manager Al Avila. The executive was in Miami’s front office for a portion of Redmond’s tenure as a player there.

Phillies Notes: Nola, Mackanin

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Though Phillies righty Aaron Nola tells Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he hasn’t thought much about the potential of signing a long-term deal with the Phils, Gelb opines that Nola is a prime extension candidate for the team this winter. The 24-year-old’s recent arm troubles present some risk in approaching him about a long-term pact, but there’s inherent risk when extending any pitcher, and Nola has established himself as an above-average starter over his two-plus seasons of work, Gelb argues. With Nola still a year away from arbitration eligibility, the Phils could look to strike now in hopes of securing control over one or more free-agent years, as they did with center fielder Odubel Herrera in the 2016-17 offseason. Gelb’s piece includes a number of potential comparables as well as quotes from Nola and teammate Clay Buchholz, who signed a long-term deal himself at a similar point in his career.

  • FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes that one reason the Phillies might’ve made the surprising decision to remove Pete Mackanin as manager just months after giving him an extension was that the arrival of players like Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams and other young talents may have somewhat accelerated the team’s timeline. Heyman writes that the Phils viewed Mackanin as “more of a caretaker” than a long-term solution, and they may now look for a skipper who’ll hold down the fort for years to come. Heyman notes that having a more concrete manager in place could be a selling point next winter when the team could pursue multiple top names in free agency.

Henderson Alvarez, Kevin Siegrist To Elect Free Agency

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The Phillies announced today that right-hander Henderson Alvarez, left-hander Kevin Siegrist and infielder/outfielder Ty Kelly have cleared outright waivers and intend to elect free agency. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer first reported that Kelly would elect free agency after clearing waivers.

It’s not terribly surprising to see the trio return to the open market after helping to round out the roster for a rebuilding Phillies organization in 2017. All three could have been kept — the former two via arbitration — but the Phils decided to keep the 40-man roster spots (and funds) open for other opportunities.

Though Alvarez made only three appearances  in the majors, they were his first since early in 2015. He held opposing hitters to seven earned runs in 14 2/3 frames, but allowed 11 walks while recording just six strikeouts. Alvarez also worked only in the 91 to 92 mph range with his fastball, well off his peak, though he’s sure to get a look with some organization in Spring Training. Once a productive starter with the Marlins, Alvarez is still just 27 years of age.

Siegrist, 28, was claimed by the Phillies after being cut loose by the Cardinals and seemingly was a candidate to be tendered a contract. Upon landing in Philadelphia, he threw five frames, recording seven strikeouts against two walks while allowing two earned runs. Siegrist likely would not have commanded much more than his $1.6MM salary from 2017, and would have come with another year of arbitration control, but evidently he didn’t show enough to convince the Phillies’ front office.

As for Kelly, he still hasn’t shown much indication that he’ll do enough damage offensively to be more than a utility player in the majors. The 29-year-old now carries a .211/.297/.340 slash through 176 MLB plate appearances. He has been fairly productive over six seasons at Triple-A, earning a .382 on-base percentage by walking nearly as often as he strikes out (233 of the former and 237 of the latter through 1,612 plate appearances), though his power has lagged (.385 slugging percentage) at the highest level of the minors.

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