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Arbitration Eligibles: Philadelphia Phillies

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Phillies are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Revere's season ended on July 13th with a broken foot, but the 25-year-old center fielder is secure for next year.  Bastardo's season was cut short by a Biogenesis suspension, but he's expected to play in winter ball and will be tendered a contract for next year.  Frandsen trailed off significantly over the season's final three months, but is cheap enough to retain as a reserve.

Regarding Kendrick, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said on Monday, "I don't know why people are asking about that.  We will [bring him back]," according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  People were probably asking because as a guy with a 4.70 ERA, Kendrick's projected salary isn't much of a bargain.  Plus, he posted a 6.04 ERA over his final 17 starts and was shut down in September with a shoulder injury.

Lannan is likely to be cut loose, as a knee injury cost him more than half the season and he wasn't effective otherwise.  Mayberry is a "definite non-tender candidate," wrote Gelb yesterday, as the Phillies may slide Darin Ruf into his fourth outfielder role.  Mayberry, acquired by the Phillies in November '08, hit .227/.286/.391 this year.  Bernadina will likely be gone, after a lackluster showing in 27 games.  I expect Wells to be cut loose also.

If the Phillies tender contracts to Kendrick, Bastardo, Revere, and Frandsen, they'll be looking at an estimated $11.4MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Phillies Outright Zach Miner, Pete Orr

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The Phillies announced that they have outrighted right-hander Zach Miner, infielder Pete Orr, lefty Mauricio Robles and utilityman Michael Martinez off their 40-man roster. Miner and Orr are of particular note, as each would've had to be retained via arbitration to remain with the organization.

Miner pitched 28 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball for the Phillies with 6.3 K/9, 5.3 BB/9 and a strong 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. A veteran of parts of five Major League seasons, Miner has four years, 78 days of Major League service time. The 31-year-old posted a 3.90 ERA in 85 1/3 innings at Triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2013 and has a career ERA of 4.25 in 385 2/3 innings between the Phils and Tigers.

Orr collected just 22 appearances in his third straight season in the Phillies organization and posted a .684 OPS in Triple-A. To this point in his career, he's compiled four years, 145 days of Major League service time between the Phillies, Nationals and Braves. The 34-year-old is a career .257/.289/.328 hitter in 738 plate appearances.

Martinez, 30, has received 396 plate appearances at the big league level despite slashing just .187/.234/.261. Robles posted a sub-2.00 ERA betwen Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors, which would make it surprising that he cleared waivers to some, but the 24-year-old averaged six walks per nine innings.

The Phillies also lost Raul Valdes to the Astros and Tyler Cloyd to the Indians via waiver claims yesterday, meaning they've dropped six players from their 40-man roster in the past 24 hours.

Indians Notes: Giambi, Cabrera, Kazmir, Smith, Cloyd

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The Indians' magical season came to end at the hands of Alex Cobb and the Rays last night, as the Tribe fell 4-0 in the American League Wild Card game. Here's the latest on the Indians, whose focus will now shift to the offseason…

  • Jason Giambi told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he would like to play one more season, making an even 20 for his career (Twitter link). The Giambino hit just .183/.282/.371 in 216 plate appearances this season, but he did belt nine homers, including a dramatic pair of walk-off shots, the latter of which has to be considered one of the highlights of the season for the team.
  • General manager Chris Antonetti brought the team to the playoffs by making bold moves and should continue to be bold by trading Asdrubal Cabrera this winter, opines Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. The Indians are set to lose Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir to free agency, and Pluto writes that some pitching depth could be added if Antonetti can strike a deal with a team like the Cardinals. Mike Aviles is capable of bridging the gap between the declining Cabrera and top prospect Francisco Lindor, writes Pluto.
  • Kazmir and right-hander Joe Smith both told reporters, including MLB.com's Jordan Bastian, that they hope to return to the Indians in 2014 (Twitter links). Kazmir added that he hopes to pick up where he left off in 2013, and Smith stated, "I don't want that to be my last game."
  • Twenty-four teams passed on Phillies right-hander Tyler Cloyd before the Indians claimed him off waivers yesterday, writes Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. That Cloyd was waived despite having two options left shows that the team was never particularly enamored with him, adds Gelb. Cloyd was part of the proposed package for Astros reliever Wilton Lopez last offseason before the Phils backed off due to concerns over Lopez's elbow.

Indians Claim Tyler Cloyd, Designate Clay Rapada

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The Indians have claimed right-hander Tyler Cloyd off waivers from the Phillies and designated left-hander Clay Rapada for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster, the team announced via Twitter.

The 26-year-old Cloyd was rocked for a 6.56 ERA in 60 1/3 innings for the Phillies this season, averaging 6.1 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings with a 39.4 percent ground-ball rate. A 4.49 FIP suggests that Cloyd's abnormally high .365 batting average on balls in play and 64.5 percent strand rate helped to partially inflate his ERA. There's only so much room for optimism though, as his 86.3 mph average fastball velocity is one of the lowest you'll see from a right-handed starter. He has a 3.39 ERA and 3.6 K/BB ratio in 254 2/3 career innings at the Triple-A level.

Rapada, 32, pitched to a 1.12 ERA with 20 strikeouts and nine walks in 24 innings at Triple-A Columbus while in the Cleveland organization. He held lefties to a .188/.240/.261 batting line in the minors this season, which is par for the course for Rapada, against whom lefties have hit just .164/.255/.231 in 257 big league plate appearances. Rapada gets torched by right-handers though, having allowed a .345/.464/.611 line and clearly establishing himself as a pure left-handed specialist.

Astros Claim Raul Valdes, Decline Humber’s Option

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The Astros have issued a press release announcing that they have claimed left-hander Raul Valdes off waivers from the Phillies and declined their 2014 club option for right-hander Philip Humber. Humber is one of four players that has been outrighted off the team's 40-man roster; the others are infielder Brandon Laird and catchers Cody Clark and Matt Pagnozzi. Perhaps more noteworthy is the fact that top prospect Jonathan Singleton has been added to the team's 40-man roster to fill one of the new vacancies.

Valdes, 35, posted an alarming 7.46 ERA in 35 innings for the Phillies this season, but his peripheral numbers suggest that he was far better than that unsightly number. Valdes averaged 9.5 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings, leading advanced metrics like FIP (4.39), xFIP (3.74) and SIERA (3.10) to project better days on the horizon. He also held opposing lefties to a .229/.275/.375 line.

Houston held a $3MM option on Humber, but declining it proved to be an easy decision. The former No. 3 overall pick turned in a 7.90 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 54 2/3 innings for the Astros this season after signing for just $800K last offseason. Humber was designated for assignment in May and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Oklahoma City, where posted a 4.68 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.

Laird hit .169/.224/.423 with five homers in 76 plate appearances for the Astros in 2013. Pagnozzi, who was acquired from the Braves at the beginning of September, went 3-for-21 in 22 plate appearances for the Astros in the season's final month. The 32-year-old Clark, a career minor leaguer, reached the Majors at last in 2013 and recorded his first big league hit with the Astros. Clark went 4-for-38 with Houston and hit .212/.250/.265 in 46 minor league contests this season.

Free Agent Profile: Carlos Ruiz

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Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz was a late bloomer, reaching the Majors at age 27 and eventually shaking off the backup label.  He received MVP votes in 2010 and '11 and made his first All-Star team in 2012, but after the '12 season was slapped with a 25-game suspension for testing positive a second time for taking Adderall, which is used to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.  His 2013 season was his least productive since '08, and the man known as Chooch is heading into free agency for the first time.

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Strengths/Pros

Among those who caught at least 250 games from 2010-12, Ruiz is tops in all three slash stats: batting average (.303), on-base percentage (.388), and slugging percentage (.454).  Ruiz was about as good a hitter as Joe Mauer was during that time, and easily better than Yadier Molina, Miguel Montero, Brian McCann, or Matt Wieters.  On a rate basis using weighted on-base average, Ruiz's offense was on par with non-catchers like Billy Butler, Nick Swisher, Carlos Beltran.  He topped Ryan Zimmerman, Dustin Pedroia, David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, and many other very good hitters in wOBA during that time.  FanGraphs wins above replacement puts Ruiz's total 2010-12 contribution on par with Wright, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Gonzalez.  Though Ruiz's work went under the radar, he was recognized with MVP votes in each of the 2010, '11, and '12 seasons.

How about 2013?  Ruiz posted a .268/.320/.368 line, so even in a down year, he got on base more often than the typical catcher.  And though it may be arbitrary, agent Marc Kligman can point to a more Chooch-like .288/.343/.444 line over the season's final two months.  A right-handed hitter, Ruiz excelled against lefties to the tune of a .300/.374/.463 line.

Defensively, Ruiz is above average at blocking pitches, according to a stat from Bojan Koprivica.

A qualifying offer is not in the cards for Ruiz, so unlike fellow free agents Brian McCann and perhaps Jarrod Saltalamacchia, he will not cost a draft pick to sign.  Ruiz is a buy-low candidate who would have required a significantly larger contract a year ago prior to the suspension coming off a great season.

Weaknesses/Cons

As mentioned earlier, Ruiz had a down year with the bat, showing below average power for a catcher and falling well below his own recent norms.  Why did Ruiz's batting average, walks, and power take a dive this year?  One way or another, his amphetamine suspension was a factor, most likely in that he started his season a month late without a normal spring training.  It's also possible that he was affected by the pressure from his first contract year.  Ruiz's relative struggles could also simply be age-related decline, as he turned 34 in January.  His 16 home runs in 2012, in particular, appears to have been a fluke or at least something that will not be repeated.

On the defensive side, Ruiz cost the Phillies 23 runs from 2007-11 due to pitch framing, according to a Baseball Prospectus article by Mike Fast.

Ruiz has had a DL trip in each of the past five seasons, missing about 23 days on average.  Teams will have to ask if at age 35 Ruiz will be able to play 115 games or so.  A team signing Ruiz probably needs a better than average backup catcher.

Personal

Ruiz, a native of Panama, has two sons, also named Carlos.  He's a family man who enjoys his horses on his ranch in his native country.

Market

Brian McCann, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, and perhaps Dioner Navarro are the other starting catching options on the market.  Pierzynski will be Ruiz's main competition, in the aging backstop bracket, and A.J. took a one-year deal last winter and may again.  According to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. recently said of Ruiz, "We'd like to bring him back.  He knows we'd like to bring him back."  The feeling appears to be mutual, as Ruiz told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Inquirer he'd like to finish his career with the Phillies.  Ruiz is a fan favorite in Philadelphia and they lack a promising alternative, especially one who can provide right-handed offense.  They re-upped Chase Utley for a minimum two-year, $27MM guarantee covering his age 35-36 seasons, and Kligman could use that deal as a frame of reference.  If things don't work out with the Phillies, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves could be fits for Ruiz.

Expected Contract

Ruiz signed a multiyear deal in January 2010 and ended up earning just $8.35MM for this three arbitration years.  According to FanGraphs, his production from 2010-12 was worth $53.1MM.  Since at least six years of Major League service is required for free agency, the timing often doesn't work well for late bloomers, and Ruiz may already be nearing the downswing of his career.  Given the offense Ruiz provided as recently as 2012, he'll be a popular buy-low candidate on a one-year deal.  I imagine Kligman will shake off references to Pierzynski's contract, however, initially aiming for a three-year deal.  Ruiz's ceiling is probably Russell Martin's two-year, $17MM deal.  Martin was coming off a better year and was five years younger, so it will be a difficult benchmark to pass.  In the end I think Ruiz will sign a two-year, $14MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Phillies Notes: Coaching Staff, Ruiz, Amaro, Halladay

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The Phillies have already found their manager for the next three years (or so they hope) in Ryne Sandberg, but there was more work to be done. Earlier today, the team announced that longtime pitching coach Rich Dubee will not have his contract renewed and that Paul Fournier will be the team's new Major League strength and conditioning coordinator. Fournier had served the same role in the Phils' minor league system and has also been a high-ranking conditioning coach for the Marlins and Expos. Here's some more on Phillies-related news…

  • Carlos Ruiz hopes to return to Philadelphia in 2014 and finish his career with the Phillies, writes Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. wouldn't comment as to whether or not he'd begun discussions with Ruiz's agent, Marc Kilgman, but the Phillies are known to be prioritizing catching help this offseason.
  • Amaro admitted to reporters, including MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, that he feels pressure to get the Phillies back to their winning ways.  “I always feel under the gun,” Amaro said. “I put myself under the gun. I don’t listen to a lot of it. But listen, I’m the GM of the club, so I fully expect to take heat for it. I’m the one making the decisions on player personnel. I’m accountable for the things that have happened. I didn’t have a very good year; our team didn’t have a very good year."
  • The GM went on to say that while they'd like to fill the right field hole with a quality right-handed hitter, they could go out and get a left-handed batter instead if that's what's out there.  Amaro doesn't feel Darin Ruf is an everyday option in right field.
  • Amaro reiterated his desire to see Roy Halladay back with the Phillies but before the two sides can try and work out a risk-controlled deal, the pitcher may want to see if the Phillies will be in a position to contend before re-signing.
  • Because of missteps in player evaluations in recent years, Amaro says that they will "build more analytics" into the gameplan going forward, Zolecki writes.  

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Phillies Notes: Pitching, Kendrick, Ruiz

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The Phillies' pitching staff, once one of the game's best, may require an overhaul, Matt Gelb of The Philadelphia Inquirer writes. The club has used ten starters this season, which is the major league average, according to Gelb.  However, stats such as the team's 4.29 ERA, good for second-to-last in the NL, indicate an inability to cope with even "an average amount of uncertainty" in the rotation. "Long guys, swing men, depth in the bullpen and depth in the triple-A level are a need," manager Ryne Sandberg commented. "That is very evident right now." More Sunday morning Phillies links:

  • While Gelb highlights uncertainty in the rotation as a prime contributor to the Phillies' disappointing 2013 campaign, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says the club plans to tender Kyle Kendrick a contract in the offseason, meaning that four of the team's five rotation slots may already be filled. If Kendrick returns to the rotation, he and Cuban import Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez would likely slide in behind Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. "I don't know why people are asking about that," Amaro said of speculation on whether Kendrick will be tendered a contract, according to an article by Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. "We will."
  • There appears to be mutual interest in catcher Carlos Ruiz returning to the club next year, according to Zolecki's piece. "I think mutually we would like to continue the relationship," Amaro said. "At some point we'll get together, negotiate, and see where it goes." Ruiz says he's happy in Philadelphia, but added that he plans to test the market if a deal isn't done before the World Series.
  • Despite the Phillies' pitching woes, offense is also a need for a club that entered its final two games of the season averaging 3.75 runs per game, Zolecki writes on his blog.

East Notes: Kuroda, Lee, Mets, Blue Jays

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Yankees starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda hasn't decided whether he'll pitch in 2014, Anthony Rieber of New York Newsday reports (via Twitter). He might pitch in the U.S. or in Japan, and it's not impossible he could retire, either. Kuroda ranked sixth in Tim Dierkes' most recent Free Agent Power Rankings, and even though he'll turn 39 before the 2014 season starts, his ability to rack up high-quality innings makes him a valuable commodity. If he were to retire or return to Japan, that would put a significant dent in this offseason's free agent pitching market. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee plans to retire after the 2016 season, Matt Gelb of the Inquirer reports (on Sulia). Lee's contract is guaranteed through 2015, and the Phillies have an option on his services for 2016. "I'm financially able to shut it down, so… that's how I feel right now," Lee says. "But when the time comes I might look at it differently."
  • The Mets will look for a veteran catcher to serve as Travis d'Arnaud's backup next season, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York tweets. Adding a veteran would also insure the Mets against the possibility that d'Arnaud gets hurt, Rubin notes. In mid-August, d'Arnaud took over for John Buck as the Mets' starting catcher.
  • The Blue Jays' disappointing season has left them well outside the playoff picture, but that doesn't mean their final series against the Rays is irrelevant, MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm writes. Right now, the Jays have baseball's seventh-worst record, tied with the Phillies, Rockies and Brewers. They're currently one game worse than the Mets and two worse than the Giants. That's significant, Chisholm points out, because the top ten picks in the draft are protected, meaning that if the Jays finish with one of baseball's ten worst records, they'll be able to pursue free agents who have been extended qualifying offers, and they won't have to worry about losing their first-round pick if they sign one. For example, the Indians had a protected first-round pick last season, which allowed them to keep the No. 5 overall pick (which they used on Clint Frazier) even after they signed Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. The Indians did sacrifice their second-round and Competitive Balance Round B picks.

Quick Hits: Commissioner, Rollins, Diamondbacks

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Now that Bud Selig has announced he will retire following the 2014 season, speculation has already begun about who will be Major League Baseball's next commissioner.  ESPN's Jayson Stark thinks it would be "a monumental upset" if MLB doesn't go with an internal candidate, and the favorites are league executive vice-presidents Rob Manfred and Tim Brosnan, and MLB Advanced Media CEO Bob Bowman.  Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan hears that Manfred is the safest and most well-rounded pick, though some sources consider Brosnan to be the better candidate.  Stark and Passan list such names as Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Sandy Alderson, Indians president Mark Shapiro and Diamondbacks president Derrick Hall as other possible choices.

Here are some notes as Yankee Stadium says goodbye to Mariano Rivera…

  • Jimmy Rollins is confident that the Phillies already have the pieces they need to succeed thanks to their emerging youth, CSNPhilly.com's Corey Seidman writes.  “That old window's closed," Rollins admitted. "This is a brand new thing. You've still got the pieces, but this is a brand new thing going forward. Obviously we would love to have that right-handed bat, but Darin Ruf has come up and done that so far. We're going to get Ryan [Howard] back, hopefully a healthy Ryan back on his legs and strong."
  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers will recommend to ownership that manager Kirk Gibson be retained for next season, Towers told reporters (including MLB.com's Steve Gilbert).  Gibson has a 289-277 record since taking over as Arizona's manager halfway through the 2010 season and he led the team to an NL West title in 2011.  Both Gibson and Towers are only under contract through the end of the 2014 season.
  • While Brad Ziegler has enjoyed being the Diamondbacks' closer, he tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that it doesn't matter if he's closing or in his usual set-up role next season.  Ziegler has a 2.28 ERA and 12 saves over 71 IP and a league-best 76 games this season.  He's going into his third and final year of arbitration eligibility though there has been talk that Arizona will try to work out a contract extension.
  • Jack Zduriencik's mistakes as the Mariners' general manager are recapped by Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times in a piece that chronicles the team's strategies and major transactions over the last several years.  While Baker holds Zduriencik accountable for his own mistakes, he also points the finger at the club's upper management for the larger issues surrounding the Mariners' lack of recent success.
  • John Danks is "embarrassed" by his performance since signing a five-year, $65MM extension with the White Sox before the 2012 season, the southpaw tells MLB.com's Scott Merkin.  "The goal is always to throw 200-plus innings, take the ball every day and give us a chance to win. I've got three years to make everyone believe it was worth it," Danks said.  "That's part of my motivating factor. I want to be the productive player I'm expected to be."
  • "The Cubs are the last-place team poised to contend the soonest. The Astros are the one with the brightest future," Jim Callis writes for MLB.com in his analysis of both teams' young talent.

MLBTR's Zach Links contributed to this post

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