Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates
Coming off their third straight last place season, the Pirates remain squarely amidst a rebuild. It’ll be another quiet winter and likely another poor season at the major league level for Pittsburgh. Yet the burgeoning farm system is finally beginning to offer some long-term hope.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Roberto Pérez, C: $5MM through 2022
- Yoshi Tsutsugo, 1B: $4MM through 2022
- José Quintana, LHP: $2MM through 2022
Owe $3MM buyout on 2022 club option to Gregory Polanco, who was released in August
Total 2022 commitments: $14MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Bryan Reynolds — $4.5MM
- Chris Stratton — $2.2MM
- Kevin Newman — $1.95MM (settled to avoid arbitration)
- Ben Gamel — $1.8MM (settled to avoid arbitration)
Free Agents
- Colin Moran, Chad Kuhl, Chasen Shreve, Kyle Keller, Phillip Evans, Trevor Cahill, Steven Brault, Wilmer Difo, Chase De Jong, Cody Ponce, Erik González, Shelby Miller, Connor Overton, Enyel de los Santos, Shea Spitzbarth, Taylor Davis, Tanner Anderson
As expected, the Pirates were one of the worst teams in the National League in 2021. It was the Bucs’ second consecutive season with a win percentage south of .400, and they’re again in line for a top five overall pick in the draft. That’s par for the course for one of the league’s most obvious rebuilders, and it sets the stage for another fairly quiet offseason.
The Pirates have been one of the lower-spending clubs around the league even during years with strong rosters. Pittsburgh entered 2021 with a player payroll estimated just north of $45MM, and their end-of-year expenditure was reportedly the lowest for any MLB team since 2013. Without any path to contention in 2022, it’s unlikely the Pirates push payroll much higher next season, although the complete lack of financial commitments entering the winter gave the front office some freedom for early-offseason moves.
Before the lockout, Pittsburgh made three low-cost big league signings. Southpaw José Quintana inked a $2MM deal and will get another rotation chance after spending the bulk of last season in the bullpen. An All-Star caliber hurler earlier in his career with the White Sox, Quintana hasn’t been especially productive over the past three seasons.
Quintana did miss bats at a career-best rate last year, even as he struggled to a personal-worst 6.43 ERA. That’s at least a bit encouraging, although it came with a corresponding spike in walks. The Bucs have enough rotation uncertainty to afford the veteran some innings in hopes of a bounceback. In an ideal world, Quintana would follow the Tyler Anderson path of posting solid enough production to recoup a mid-tier prospect or two from a contender at next summer’s trade deadline.
Pittsburgh is still in the stages of the rebuild where they’re willing to move players off the big league club for future value. They did just that last month, in fact, sending Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings to the Marlins. The move brought back right-hander Zach Thompson — who has a chance to step right into the rotation after flashing some promise as a rookie — and a pair of prospects, right-hander Kyle Nicolas and outfielder Connor Scott.
Parting with the well-regarded Stallings likely wasn’t an easy call, but this was probably the right time for the Bucs to pull the trigger. Not only is the backstop coming off perhaps the best season of his career, he just turned 32 years old. While the late bloomer remains under club control for three more seasons (barring changes to the service structure in the next CBA), he may not be as productive as he was this past season by the time the Pirates are ready to contend.
The Stallings trade and outright of backup Michael Pérez left the Pirates without a catcher. Yet they quickly turned to free agency to find the solution, signing former Indian Roberto Pérez to a $5MM guarantee. The 33-year-old is coming off a miserable offensive season that got him bought out by Cleveland, but he’s a high-end defender who should work well with the young pitching staff at a non-exorbitant cost. Pérez isn’t a long-term answer, but he’s a perfectly capable veteran stopgap for next season.
Roberto Pérez is the only catcher on the Pittsburgh 40-man roster at the moment, meaning there’ll be more moves coming out of the lockout. Acquisitions will come via low-cost free agency or perhaps the Rule 5 draft, but Pittsburgh will have to select at least one more catcher to the big league club by Opening Day. Michael Pérez remains in the system as non-roster depth and figures to get another look himself in Spring Training.
Moving elsewhere around the diamond, first base is accounted for by the Bucs’ other major league free agent signing thus far. Yoshi Tsutsugo returned on a $4MM deal, and general manager Ben Cherington has already indicated he’s likely to spend the majority of his time at first. Tsutsugo struggled with the Rays and Dodgers after an impressive run in Japan, but he showed signs of life after latching on with the Bucs late in the year.
Tsutsugo hit .268/.347/.535 across 144 plate appearances in black and gold. Can he sustain anywhere near that level of production over a longer run? That remains to be seen, but he impressed the front office enough to earn another look. With Tsutsugo taking over as the club’s top lefty-hitting first baseman, the Pirates moved on from Colin Moran just before the non-tender deadline.
The other corner infield spot belongs to Ke’Bryan Hayes. It was a disappointing 2021 for the 24-year-old Hayes, who entered the season as a favorite for Rookie of the Year after a monster three weeks late in 2020. He suffered a fairly significant wrist injury within the first week of the season, and he never seemed to get on track offensively upon his return. The organization will hope for more than a .257/.316/.373 line from Hayes moving forward, but he’s clearly a key piece of the franchise’s long-term future.
The Bucs’ middle infield is in a bit of flux. All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier was traded away this summer. Kevin Newman, who took the bulk of playing time at shortstop this past season, remains on hand but hit .226/.265/.309 over 554 plate appearances. Newman may open the year at the position, but it shouldn’t be long before top prospect Oneil Cruz is playing shortstop regularly. The 23-year-old was rewarded for a monster Double-A season with a two-game big league cameo to end the year. But he’s only played six Triple-A games, and a season-opening assignment to Indianapolis may be in order.
Cruz is a fascinating prospect, with his massive 6’7″ frame leading to questions about his ability to stick at shortstop. The rebuild affords the Pirates some freedom to evaluate Cruz’s long-term defensive home, as they can live with a few miscues during what’ll be a non-competitive year regardless. Either way, Cruz’s huge power potential from the left-handed batter’s box makes him an intriguing young talent who’ll get plenty of reps against big league pitching in the not too distant future.
Second base is completely up in the air, with Cole Tucker, Hoy Park, Michael Chavis and Newman among the internal options. Everyone in that group underperformed in 2021, though, and none should be a lock for playing time. Free agency offers numerous depth options around the dirt. Old friend Josh Harrison is available, while Hanser Alberto, Ehire Adrianza and Shed Long are among the infielders who could sign minor league deals. Adding some veteran help to the mix — even if just via non-roster pact — could be in order.
There’s also plenty of uncertainty in the outfield, but one player is locked in. Center fielder Bryan Reynolds had an excellent 2021 campaign, hitting .302/.390/.522 over 646 plate appearances. That was his second very strong showing out of three big league seasons, and Reynolds looks to have emerged as the type of cornerstone position player clubs are hoping to find during a rebuild.
There’s surely robust interest from teams around the league in acquiring Reynolds, but it’d be a major surprise if he’s ultimately moved. Pittsburgh reportedly rebuffed huge demand for the left-handed hitter at the deadline, viewing him as a potential anchor of their next competitive club. That won’t stop teams from calling coming out of the lockout, but all indications to this point are that the Pirates don’t have much interest in parting with Reynolds.
The Bucs can control the 26-year-old (27 in January) for another four seasons via the arbitration process. They surely have their sights set on competing within that time frame, and Reynolds isn’t slated to hit free agency until after his age-30 season. It’s justifiable for the front office to just hold onto him via arbitration, then, although the organization would likely have interest in extending their window of club control an additional few seasons if Reynolds is amenable.
As a Super Two player, Reynolds is already in line for his first significant salary this winter. He’s projected to make $4.5MM in 2022, which could lessen his desire to push back his path to free agency for more up-front security. We’ve seen a few extensions for outfielders in this service bucket in the past, but Reynolds’ offensive track record to date far surpasses those of players (Max Kepler, Kevin Kiermaier, Ender Inciarte) who have signed this kind of deal.
In all likelihood, a Reynolds extension would probably have to set a new precedent for players in this service class. For a Pirates’ franchise that has never gone beyond $60MM on a guaranteed contract, that kind of deal may not be in the cards. That said, the Pirates don’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the books beyond next season, so the possibility of committing to Reynolds long-term can’t be ruled out.
Aside from Reynolds, there’s little in the way of locks for outfield playing time. Ben Gamel avoided arbitration and will probably be in the mix. Former top prospect Anthony Alford finished the season on a bit of a hot streak and could get a look. The Bucs grabbed the out-of-options Greg Allen off waivers from the Yankees and will either have to keep him on the active roster or designate him for assignment themselves. Prospects Travis Swaggerty and Canaan Smith-Njigba each seem likely to begin the year in Triple-A but could debut within the first few months.
None of Gamel, Alford or Allen should stand in the way of the team looking into upgrades though. Pittsburgh has an estimated $39MM in 2022 commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, leaving a few million dollars even before reaching last year’s minuscule mark. The Pirates aren’t going to sign anyone in the Michael Conforto range, but they could look to the free agent outfield market for possible minor league or low-cost MLB deals in the Quintana/Pérez mold.
That’s also true of the rotation, which Cherington has expressed an interest in continuing to address. Quintana has a rotation spot and Thompson likely does as well after being acquired in the Stallings deal. JT Brubaker will probably get another shot. The right-hander allowed far too many home runs en route to a 5.36 ERA last year, but he posted solid strikeout and walk numbers.
Bryse Wilson, acquired from the Braves in last summer’s Richard Rodríguez swap, joins Mitch Keller as former top prospects who may be running out of chances. Both pitchers have strong pedigree but have yet to produce in the big leagues, either from a run prevention or peripherals perspective. Wilson is out of options, so he’ll likely be on the active roster in some capacity. Such players as Max Kranick, Dillon Peters, Miguel Yajure and Wil Crowe could be in the mix as depth options at the back end.
Given that collection of generally unestablished names, it’s no surprise Cherington’s open to further additions. The Pirates should be a target destination for reclamation candidates like Vince Velasquez, Zach Davies or Drew Smyly. In addition to the possibility of landing a rotation job, the pitcher-friendly nature of PNC Park could help arms of that ilk who have struggled with home runs in recent seasons.
As is the case for most rebuilding teams, the Pirates don’t have a ton of certainty in the bullpen. David Bednar and Chris Stratton are in line for high-leverage roles, although either could attract trade interest. Duane Underwood Jr. probably did enough in 2021 to earn a season-opening spot, and some members of the rotation depth mix will wind up working in shorter stints as well.
There’s room here, as there is throughout the roster, for some cheap fliers. There’s the possibility of a Rodríguez reunion; the Bucs’ former closer finished the year terribly in Atlanta and was non-tendered after the season. Yet he’s clearly capable of having success in Pittsburgh, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if the front office tried to bring him back. He’s just one of numerous options available, and the Bucs will probably bring in a few relievers on minors deals and/or waiver claims before the start of the season.
The Pirates are perennially hamstrung by payroll limitations, and they’re not going to make any impact splashes this offseason. There’s enough flexibility around the roster that the front office may just have their pick of bounceback/reclamation targets coming out of the lockout. For another season, though, the organization’s most important developments will likely be concentrated on the farm.
Quick Hits: Pirates, Robinson, De La Cruz, NPB/KBO Signings
The Pirates hired Dewey Robinson as their new special advisor for pitching development, coaching and player development last week (John Dreker of Pirates Prospects was the first to report the news). Robinson played three seasons with the White Sox from 1979-81, then embarked on a long coaching career that has included stints as the White Sox bullpen coach in 1993-94 and the Astros’ pitching coach in 2008-09. Robinson also has extensive experience working at the minor league level as a coach and instructor, and has spent the last 12 years working with the Rays, serving as the club’s director of pitching development over the last two seasons.
This time in Tampa Bay overlaps with Pittsburgh manager Derek Shelton’s six years as the Rays’ hitting coach, so Shelton and Robinson very likely already have a prior connection. In the bigger picture, Robinson becomes the latest in a long line of former Rays executives, coaches, and staffers poached by other organizations looking to replicate Tampa’s success at developing young talent (and young pitching in particular). The rebuilding Pirates have a particular need for arms, as while GM Ben Cherington has done a good job of restocking the farm system during his two-plus years in Pittsburgh, position players make up the majority of the Bucs’ top prospects.
More from around the baseball world….
- Reds infield prospect Elly De La Cruz received a lot of trade attention this past summer, The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans writes, but Cincinnati “didn’t want anything to do with moving him.” De La Cruz was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, and after a solid Dominican Summer League showing in 2019, he made a big impression in his first season in the North American minor league system. The 19-year-old hit a combined .296/.336/.538 with eight home runs over 265 plate appearances with the Reds’ rookie ball (55 PA) and A-ball (210 PA) affiliates. Prospect evaluators took note of the breakout, as Baseball America (4th) and MLB Pipeline (8th) now have De La Cruz entrenched in their rankings of Cincinnati’s top prospects. BA’s scouting report notes that “there are few players in the majors or minors with three 70s on their scouting report. De La Cruz is a plus-plus runner with a plus-plus arm and plus-plus raw power.” Defensively, De La Cruz is a good athlete who might be able to remain at shortstop and could have center field potential, though he has thus far played only shortstop, third base, and some second base in his brief pro career.
- MLBTR’s readers have surely noticed the number of recent posts on this site about players signing or re-signing with Nippon Professional Baseball or the KBO League. While it may seem like more players than ever are heading overseas, the volume of NPB/KBO transactions is more a product of “how there’s no MLB activity going on to otherwise overshadow these moves” than a true increase in players signing outside of North America, R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports writes. It would still be very unlikely to see a truly major name head for Japan or South Korea, as an agency source tells Anderson that “the uncertainty surrounding what the market is going to look like post-lockout is the clearest reason why some of these fringe players are going overseas….the marginal types have zero leverage and teams are going to move through that group of players quickly so more guys are seeking security.” It is also worth noting that notable players were becoming more open to foreign leagues long before the lockout or even the pandemic (i.e. Adam Jones’ two-year, $8MM deal with the NPB’s Orix Buffaloes in December 2019), as players increasingly see NPB and the KBO League as avenues to rebuild their stock for MLB scouts.
Joel Hanrahan Departs Pirates Organization
Two-time All-Star reliever Joel Hanrahan, who has spent the past five years coaching in the Pirates organization, announced on Twitter today that he’s decided to step away from the organization. Said Hanrahan:
“After 5 years coaching with the Pirates I have decided to move on and look for other opportunities. Thank you to the Pirates for giving my first shot at coaching. I wish all the players, coaches and organization the best. I’m looking forward to a new challenge and opportunity.”
Hanrahan, 40, was the Pirates’ Triple-A pitching coach in 2021 and was expected to reprise that role for the 2022 season. He spoke with The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel less than two months ago about his ambitions of coaching in the Major Leagues with Pittsburgh. The Pirates clearly valued having Hanrahan in their system, naming him the organization’s coach of the year following the season. Hanrahan tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette he now has another position lined up, although that specific role isn’t yet clear.
A second-round draft pick by the Dodgers back in 2000, Hanrahan pitched parts of seven seasons in the Major Leagues, working to a combined 3.85 ERA with an even 25% strikeout rate and exactly 100 saves over the course of 404 2/3 innings. He spent the bulk of his big league career with the Buccos, twice leading the team in saves (40 in 2011 and 36 in 2012), though Hanrahan originally debuted as a National and pitched his final game for the Red Sox.
Hanrahan was very much in his prime at the time Pittsburgh traded him to Boston in Dec. 2012, having just racked up those 76 saves and made consecutive All-Star teams with the Pirates. Unfortunately, his Red Sox tenure lasted just 7 1/3 innings, as he was diagnosed with a torn UCL early in the 2013 season and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery. He signed with the Tigers as a free agent following that year but ultimately wound up requiring a second Tommy John surgery that proved to be a career-ender.
Coaching/Organizational Notes: Padres, Williams, Nationals, Pirates
The Padres still have a few vacancies to fill on manager Bob Melvin’s coaching staff, including both base coaching positions. As part of his latest reader mailbag, Dennis Lin of the Athletic writes that San Diego has been in contact with Matt Williams about the possibility of serving as third base coach. As Lin points out, the 56-year-old Williams spent the 2018-19 seasons on the A’s staff as third base coach during Melvin’s time as Oakland skipper.
Of course, Williams is better known for his 17-year big league playing career and two seasons as Nationals’ manager. A five-time All-Star as a player, Williams took over the Washington dugout in 2014. He was named the National League’s Manager of the Year in his first season at the helm, a year in which the club went 96-66 to claim the NL East title. Yet the Nats disappointed the following season, and Williams was dismissed and replaced with Dusty Baker after the 2015 campaign. Most recently, he spent the 2020-21 campaigns managing the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization. Williams and the Tigers mutually agreed to part ways at the end of this past season.
A couple more staffing notes around the game:
- The Nationals are planning to expand their scouting, player development and minor league coaching staffs, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. As Dougherty explores, Washington has had one of the smaller player development groups around the league in recent seasons. General manager Mike Rizzo and player development director De Jon Watson each recently spoke with Dougherty about the changes, which will see the Nats attempt to streamline their use of video and data in player development. Not coincidentally, the increased emphasis on the minor leagues comes a few months after the club kicked off an organizational reboot at the July 30 trade deadline. Barring changes to the service time structure, the Nationals will control Juan Soto for three more seasons via arbitration. Soto’s potential post-2024 free agency only adds to the urgency for Washington to develop ancillary contributors around their superstar outfielder.
- The Pirates are also embracing a philosophical change on the farm, as Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette chronicles adjustments to the club’s pitching development processes. The goal, coordinator of pitching development Josh Hopper says, is to more effectively tailor training regimens to individual hurlers as opposed to dictating a universal, top-down approach throughout the organization. Prospects like Tahnaj Thomas and Quinn Priester tell Mackey they’re excited about the new direction, with both righties implying the previous approach was not as personalized. Mackey writes that the Bucs have become increasingly willing to embrace different drills as certain pitchers prioritize development of velocity, command, biomechanics efficiency, etc. Mackey chronicles numerous training methods used by different prospects in a piece that’s worth a full read for Pirates’ fans.
Central Notes: Pirates, Brault, Reds, Lodolo, Guardians, Francona
The Pirates designated left-hander Steven Brault for assignment before the lockout began, with Brault electing free agency shortly thereafter. The rebuilding club could feasibly re-sign Brault and fit him into their plans for 2022, but Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic doesn’t think that’s likely. He quotes general manager Ben Cherington as saying he’ll “keep the door open” to bringing the lefty back, but that “The health has gotten in the way the last couple of years.”
Brault missed about a month in 2019 with a shoulder strain but managed to stay healthy for the shortened 2020 campaign. Over those two seasons, he threw 156 innings with a 4.67 ERA, seeming like a decent rotation piece for a rebuilding club to have on hand. Unfortunately, 2021 wasn’t kind to the southpaw, as he spent much of the season on the IL and only made seven starts in the big leagues. He’s still only 29 years old, turning 30 in April, meaning another team could give him a chance to log some innings and show his health, even if it might not be the Pirates. He has between four and five years’ service time, which means a team that signs him and sees him round back into form could control him through 2023, as long as the service time rules remain unchanged in the next CBA.
More news from the Central divisions…
- Much like Brault, Reds prospect Nick Lodolo also had an injury-plagued season in 2021. The 23-year-old was only able to make 13 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this year due to a blister as well as a shoulder strain. However, he seems to be on track for a healthy start to 2022, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He spoke to Reds farm director Shawn Pender, who says he reached out to Lodolo about two weeks ago “just to check in, say hello and how are you doing. He says, ‘Gosh, I feel great. I guess all that strength and conditioning helped me, and the time off. I feel really up to the task of coming back ready to go,’ so that’s all been positive.” That’s surely good news for Reds fans, as Lodolo could be an important contributor in 2022, if healthy. The 7th overall selection of the 2019 draft, Lodolo is one of the most highly-touted prospects in the game, being ranked as the 89th-best prospect in baseball by FanGraphs, coming in at #31 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 and 23rd on Baseball America’s list. The Reds’ rotation has a strong front three in Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle, but all three have been frequently mentioned in trade rumors in recent months, as the Reds are apparently looking to reduce payroll. If those rumors prove true and any of that trio is moved, it would enhance the likelihood of Lodolo being able to make the jump to the big leagues in the coming season.
- Terry Francona stepped away from his managerial duties in Cleveland at the end of July to undergo a hip replacement and foot surgery, leaving DeMarlo Hale in charge for the latter parts of the 2021 campaign. Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com provides an update, saying that Francona “should be off crutches in the next few weeks.” In September, team president Chris Antonetti said “We continue to plan looking at ’22 with Tito as our manager. If at some point that changes, we’re going to have to reconsider and relook at things at that point. But we have no reason to think that will be the case.” Based on this most recent update, it appears everything is still on track for Francona to return to health and to the dugout in 2022.
Kyle Keller Signs With Hanshin Tigers
Former Pirates right-hander Kyle Keller has signed a deal to join the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan, MLBTR has learned. Keller is expected to compete for closer responsibilities with the Tigers.
The 28-year-old Louisiana native spent the 2021 season with the Pirates, logging a career-high 33 1/3 innings over 32 appearances with a 6.48 ERA/6.95 FIP. Keller had previously seen time in the Majors with the Angels in 2020 and the Marlins in 2019.
Keller was originally an 18th round draft choice of the Marlins back in the 2015 draft. After making his Major League debut in 2019 in 10 outings with a 3.38 ERA as a 26-year-old, he was traded the following winter to the Angels for Jose Estrada. The Pirates purchased his contract in April of this past season. After shuttling between the Majors and Triple-A, he was released to free agency in November.
The Hanshin Tigers will give Keller high-leverage opportunities. That might surprise at first blush given his 2021 numbers, but Keller fared much better in Triple-A, where he posted an impressive 1.96 ERA in 18 1/3 innings. Combined, Keller struck out 30.0 percent of opposing batters while walking 11.1 percent of batters, suggesting he certainly has the potential to be a potent arm if he can limit free passes.
Keller combines a 94.5 mph heater with a hook that generated a strong 34.7 percent Whiff rate. He mixes the two offerings fairly evenly to lefties and righties. He has been prone to keeping the ball up in the air, generating just a 29.9 percent groundball rate in his Major League career.
Pair Of Pirates’ Relievers Should Attract Trade Interest Once The Transactions Freeze Is Lifted
Coming off their third consecutive last-place season, the Pirates remain mired in a massive rebuild. Contending in 2022 looks far-fetched, and it remains to be seen if there’s enough internal talent to be competitive by 2023. Aside from perhaps Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh figures to at least be willing to entertain offers for anyone on the current big league club. Once the lockout concludes, it seems likely they’ll draw calls from rivals on a pair of their top relievers: David Bednar and Chris Stratton.
Bednar’s a fairly recent trade acquisition, one of five young players Pittsburgh added last offseason in the deal that sent Joe Musgrove to the Padres. That proved to be an adept pickup for general manager Ben Cherington and his staff, as Bednar was rather quietly one of the league’s better relievers in 2021.
Over 60 2/3 innings, the now 27-year-old Bednar pitched to a 2.23 ERA. That was buoyed a bit by both a strand rate (84.9%) and opponents’ batting average on balls in play (.259) that might be tough to maintain. Yet it’s not as if Bednar’s success was a complete fluke. He struck out 32.5% of batters faced while walking only 8%. That’s a strong combination of punch outs and control, as the 24.5 point gap between his strikeout and walk percentages ranked 15th among the 138 relievers with 50+ innings pitched. His ERA checked in 17th among that group, while his 2.92 SIERA ranked 19th.
In addition to those strong results, Bednar boasts the kind of power stuff teams love in the late innings. His fastball averaged just shy of 97 MPH, according to Statcast, a personal high over his three MLB seasons. He backed that up with a solid splitter and a curveball against which batters made contact only a bit more than half the time they swung. Behind that three-pitch arsenal, Bednar generated whiffs on 15.5% of his offerings. That’s nearly four points higher than the 11.7% league average for bullpen arms, ranking 18th among those with 50 or more frames.
The Pirates certainly don’t have to trade Bednar this winter. The 2021 campaign was his first full season as a big leaguer, and he remains under team control through 2026. That includes the next two seasons at pre-arbitration salaries, making the right-hander an affordable option for the Bucs’ relief corps. (Alterations to the service time structure in the next collective bargaining agreement could affect that timeline, of course, although he’d come with at least two years of remaining control under any system that has thus far been reported to be under consideration in CBA talks).
That said, relief pitching can be volatile. Because Bednar didn’t settle into a big league bullpen until he was already 26, he’ll likely be 28 or 29 years old by the time the Pirates can reasonably expect to contend. Even if they don’t need to actively shop Bednar, the front office could be willing to pull the trigger on a deal if another team put enough young talent on the table.
There’s comparatively more urgency for the Bucs to trade Stratton. The righty is already 31 years old and has four-plus years of service under his belt. Without changes to the service time setup, he’d be controllable another two seasons via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Stratton for a salary in the $2.2MM range for the upcoming season.
Stratton wouldn’t bring back as strong a return as Bednar could. Not only does he come with less remaining club control, he’s not as dominant. Yet Stratton is coming off a nice season of his own, his second straight solid year. He absorbed 79 1/3 innings of 3.63 ERA ball in 2021, posting capable strikeout and walk numbers (25.5% and 9.8%, respectively). That came on the back of a 12.4% swinging strike rate, his second consecutive season with better than average swing-and-miss numbers.
Going back to the start of 2020, Stratton owns a 3.70 ERA/3.61 FIP over 109 1/3 frames of relief. That’s come with above-average strikeout and swinging strike rates and roughly league average control. Opposing hitters own a .232/.306/.363 line against him in that time. Stratton isn’t an impact piece, but he’s a solid reliever who’d upgrade the middle or late innings for plenty of more immediate contenders around the league. Pittsburgh wouldn’t bring back a franchise-altering return, but his solid two-year run should allow the front office to recoup a mid-tier prospect on the trade market.
Stratton looks likelier of the Pirates’ top two relievers to wind up elsewhere over the next few months, but a Bednar move would involve a more significant return. It stands to reason teams will call the Pirates to gauge the asking price on both hurlers. Moving one or both of Bednar and Stratton could serve as the Bucs’ next step in their continued efforts to strengthen the farm system in anticipation of a contention window a few years down the road.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Mets Interview Joe Espada In Managerial Search; Don Kelly Withdraws From Consideration
The Mets have interviewed Astros’ bench coach Joe Espada as part of their ongoing managerial search, reports Andy Martino of SNY (Twitter link). He becomes the fifth known interviewee, joining Matt Quatraro, Buck Showalter, Brad Ausmus and Bob Geren.
Espada, 46, has spent the past four seasons as the Houston bench coach. His first two years were under A.J. Hinch, and he retained that position even after the club moved on to Dusty Baker in the wake of Hinch’s firing for his role the 2017 sign-stealing scandal. Before his time with the Astros, Espada spent four seasons in the Yankees’ organization, the latter three of which came on Joe Girardi’s coaching staff. Espada’s time in the Bronx partially overlapped with that of current Mets’ general manager Billy Eppler, who worked as an AGM with the Yankees from 2012-15.
To date, Espada has no big league managing experience. He’s long been regarded as a viable candidate to land a top position at some point, though. Over the 2018-19 offseason, he reportedly interviewed for managerial positions with the Twins, Angels and Rangers, and he was reported to be a finalist for the Blue Jays’ job that eventually went to Charlie Montoyo. The following winter, he met with the Cubs and Giants — making a strong enough impression with the latter organization that he was once reported to be the front-runner for a position that ultimately went to Gabe Kapler.
Espada has also drawn interest from the other club with a current vacancy in the dugout. Britt Ghiroli and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported earlier this week that he’s expected to sit down with A’s brass as part of their efforts to find a replacement for Bob Melvin.
Of the six known candidates for the Mets’ position, five have now interviewed. The other — Pirates’ bench coach Don Kelly — appears to be out of the running. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported this evening (on Twitter) that Kelly has pulled his name from consideration for personal reasons. Presumably, that means he’ll reprise his role as Derek Shelton’s top lieutenant in Pittsburgh in 2022.
That’s not to say the group of five known to have interviewed are the finalists for the position. Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that the Mets have an interview with an additional unknown candidate scheduled for tomorrow morning.
Update On Mets’ Managerial Search
Not long after reports of the A’s conducting their first managerial interview surfaced, the Mets have begun an interview carousel of their own. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets conducted their first managerial interview today, and expect to keep the process going Tuesday. Among the identified managerial candidates include a trio of bench coaches— Houston’s Joe Espada, Tampa Bay’s Matt Quatraro, and Pittsburgh’s Don Kelly— as well as two veteran managers, Buck Showalter and Brad Ausmus.
Martino notes that the current list of candidates still has room to grow, but throws cold water on the notion that beloved Mets alumni Curtis Granderson and David Wright will interview after their names surfaced in earlier discussions. Whoever makes the shortlist and earns a shot at interviewing will meet with newly-minted GM Billy Eppler and his staff. Owner Steve Cohen will meet with vetted candidates some time after the initial round of interviews.
The identity of today’s interviewed candidate was none other than Brad Ausmus, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Ausmus has quite a few things going for his candidacy that surely helped net him the first opportunity to meet with Mets decision-makers. One such factor working in Ausmus’s favor is his relationship to Eppler, as Ausmus served as a special assistant to Eppler before being promoted to dugout manager in 2019 while the two were with the Angels. In other networking news, Fansided’s Robert Murray also notes that Ausmus is a Dartmouth alum like Mets president Sandy Alderson and assistant GM Bryn Alderson.
Unlike some of the candidates who have yet to interview, Ausmus also has a track record as a Major League manager. Between his time with the Angels and Detroit, he has compiled a 386-412 record as a manager, including two winning seasons at the helm and a playoff appearance. It probably also doesn’t hurt Ausmus’s case that his best season in Detroit coincided with Max Scherzer‘s last season in the AL. Scherzer, one of the Mets’ marquee pickups this offseason, owns one of the game’s more fiery personalities and is perhaps best handled by a dugout operator who’s familiar with his tempo.
If Quatraro’s name rings a bell it may be because he interviewed with the A’s within the past couple of days. That the Tampa Bay bench coach has landed interviews for 100% of this offseason’s managerial vacancies is no surprise. The Rays have proven their division’s winningest team during Quatraro’s time as bench coach, no small feat considering the powerhouses that reside within those same confines. Martino reports that Quatraro is in line for a Tuesday interview.
There aren’t many updates for the remaining candidates of Espada, Kelly, and Showalter, though they all remain highly credible options in the wake of MLBTR’s profile of their candidacies last week. Jon Heyman does note (via Twitter) that Espada and Eppler share a “strong link” dating back to their time in the Yankees organization, and calls Espada a “serious contender”.
Latest On Mets’ Managerial Search
10:04 pm: Martino tweets that while Granderson’s name had come up in initial discussions, he is not expected to interview for the position.
9:49 pm: Robert Murray of FanSided reports (on Twitter) that longtime big league outfielder Curtis Granderson is also under consideration for the Mets. The 40-year-old announced his retirement from playing in 2020 following a 16-year big league career that included a trio of All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger Award.
Granderson had emerged as a respected veteran presence in clubhouses over the course of his career. He currently serves as the president of the Players Alliance, a nonprofit organization aimed at increasing accessibility within the sport for Black athletes. Granderson played four seasons with the Mets during team president Sandy Alderson’s time as the club’s GM. Prior to that, he spent four years with the Yankees — a stint that overlapped with Eppler’s time in the club’s front office.
6:35 pm: The Mets declined an option to bring back skipper Luis Rojas shortly after the end of the 2021 season. Two months later, they remain without a manager. After spending a significant chunk of the early offseason in the search for a new GM that eventually landed Billy Eppler, the Mets turned their attention to the player market last week in advance of the lockout. With clubs barred from making major league transactions for the duration of the work stoppage, the Mets and the Athletics, the other team currently without a manager, figure to zero in on those respective searches in short order.
Andy Martino of SNY reports some preliminary candidates, naming Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro, Pirates bench coach Don Kelly and former MLB managers Buck Showalter and Brad Ausmus among those under early consideration. Martino cautions that’s not an exhaustive list, and it’s not clear whether everyone in that group will get an interview.
No one from that group registers as much of a surprise. None of Espada, Quatraro or Kelly has managed at the big league level, but they’ve all been rumored as part of searches elsewhere. Espada, 46, has been the bench coach in Houston for the past four seasons, working underneath both A.J. Hinch and Dusty Baker. He’s interviewed for a few different managerial openings in recent years and at one point even looked to be the favorite for the Giants job that eventually went to Gabe Kapler.
Quatraro’s name has come up a few times over the past couple offseasons. Kevin Cash’s top lieutenant over the last three years in Tampa Bay, the 48-year-old Quatraro has interviewed with the Giants, Pirates and Tigers in winters past and was reportedly a finalist for the Pittsburgh job that went to Derek Shelton. Kelly has worked underneath Shelton in the Steel City over the past two seasons. The 41-year-old interviewed with the Tigers and Red Sox last offseason and was reported to be among the top handful under consideration for the job that went to Alex Cora.
Showalter and Ausmus, meanwhile, come with significant managerial experience. The former has been one of the more accomplished skippers of the past couple decades. Showalter, now 65, landed his first big league managerial job with the Yankees in 1992. He spent four years in the Bronx, managed the D-Backs from 1998-2000, the Rangers from 2003-06 and the Orioles from 2010-18.
Over his career, Showalter won Manager of the Year Awards at three of those four stops. He’s overseen five playoff clubs (including three division winners), taking the 2014 Orioles to the AL Championship Series. Showalter hasn’t managed since being dismissed by Baltimore after the 2018 campaign, but he’s continued to express openness to a return to the dugout.
Ausmus, meanwhile, has managed at two separate stints. He spent the 2014-17 campaigns at the helm of the Tigers, then managed the Angels in 2019. That stint in Anaheim overlapped with Eppler’s tenure as Angels’ GM, fueling immediate speculation upon the latter’s hiring with the Mets that he could look to bring Ausmus to Queens.
Prior to that stint as skipper, Ausmus spent the 2018 season as a member of the Los Angeles front office. Eppler’s Angels fired Ausmus after just one season in the managerial chair, but it was reported at the time that call was made by owner Arte Moreno (perhaps not coincidentally just one day after it was announced Joe Maddon was leaving the Cubs).