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If The Pirates Become Sellers

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The Pirates haven't finished above .500 since 1992, back when Jose Tabata was a toddler.  They've lost six in a row, so that goal may be slipping out of reach for 2011.  If GM Neal Huntington decides to trade veterans for prospects, as he has many times before, who might be available?

  • Catcher Chris Snyder is earning $5.75MM this year and has a $750K buyout due after the season.  Ryan Doumit is at $5.1MM with a $500K buyout coming.  The D'Backs picked up part of the tab on Snyder, some of which the Pirates might have to send along to another team if they wish to move him again.  I think Doumit will continue to be the catcher they prefer to trade, and he is healthy and hitting currently.  Of course, Doumit hasn't caught 800 innings in a season since '08.
  • Southpaw Paul Maholm has a reasonable $5.75MM salary, plus a $750K buyout after the season if his option is declined.  The groundballer owns a solid 3.67 ERA through nine starts, six of them quality.  If he keeps up the good work it'll take more than salary relief to acquire him, though as ESPN's Buster Olney notes, he's a guy who "might not be suited to go head-to-head with teams in the AL East."
  • First baseman Lyle Overbay might be best-served as a platoon bat.  Another impending free agent, shortstop Ronny Cedeno, has been showing signs of life in May.  The pair make about $7MM this year, and trading them would be about unloading some salary. 
  • Another position player, Garrett Jones, projects to be arbitration eligible after the season as a Super Two.  He has a .281/.363/.496 career line against righties, which would be helpful to teams such as the Dodgers, Athletics, Phillies, and Tigers.  Between his low salary, years of control, and ability to help as a platoon bat, Jones has trade value.
  • Kevin Correia and Matt Diaz were perhaps the headliners in the Pirates' offseason, signing two-year free agent deals.  Correia could be dealt for something useful in theory, though his 4.87 SIERA is more representative than his 3.97 ERA if his peripherals don't improve.
  • The Pirates' bullpen has a solid 3.34 ERA, though that's only good for 10th in the NL.  Potential targets: closer Joel Hanrahan, lefty Joe Beimel, and righties Jose Veras and Chris Resop.  Veras and Resop are tied for fifth in the league in relief strikeouts with 26 each, and Veras' K/9 ranks fourth in the league.  Hanrahan's strikeout rate has oddly dropped, but groundballs are way up, walks are down, he's throwing harder, and he's 11 for 11 in save opportunities.  He's earning $1.4MM this year and is under team control through 2013.  July might be the time to sell high and maximize his value.
  • We've previously tackled the Diamondbacks, Twins, and Astros as potential sellers, so check out those posts.

Keith Law’s First Mock Draft

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There is still a lot that can and will change between now and the amateur draft in three weeks, but that didn't stop ESPN's Keith Law from posting his first mock draft today. It's an Insider-only piece, but here are the important points…

  • The Pirates are considering Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, and have "done their due diligence" on Dylan Bundy. Law notes that "under Neal Huntington the Pirates have long considered value relative to cost in their drafts, sometimes preferring to spend less in the first round when they see opportunities to spend their savings on other appealing prospects in later rounds." He has them taking Danny Hultzen first overall.
  • Everyone Law has spoken to says the Mariners will take Rendon as long as the medicals check out, and he hears from the very good source that there is nothing structural wrong with the Rice third baseman's shoulder.
  • The Diamondbacks will take Hultzen third overall if he's available, and they're hoping for Bundy or Trevor Bauer with the seventh overall pick. That pick is compensation for failing to sign Barret Loux last year.
  • The Orioles have interest in Bundy, Bauer, and Jed Bradley with the fourth pick. Law emphasizes that everyone has told him the Royals want a college pitcher with the fifth pick. The Indians have their eyes on Bauer for eighth overall.
  • High school outfielder Brandon Nimmo is looking for $2MM, and Law has him going to the Rays with the 32nd pick.

Conor Glassey’s Draft Overview

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Baseball America's Conor Glassey posted a draft overview yesterday, and it appears to be free to all.  A few highlights:

  • Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, Francisco Lindor, and Bubba Starling are in the Pirates' mix for the first overall pick, writes Glassey.  Pirates scouting director Greg Smith told Glassey he's more prepared for this first overall pick than he was when he drafted Matt Anderson with the Tigers in 1997.  There is no obvious number one overall talent, in Glassey's opinion.  High school pitcher Dylan Bundy could be a longshot for first overall, writes Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein in this free article.  Goldstein also ranks his top 20, so be sure to check that out.
  • One NL scouting director told Glassey he hasn't seen this kind of depth in a draft at any point in the 2000s.  This draft features a lot of high-velocity pitchers, though it's light on impact college bats and up-the-middle players.  Glassey notes that "many premium players are from non-traditional states."  One such example a little further down the draft might be Ben Roberts, a high school outfielder out of Montana who participated in his first showcase recently.
  • 2011 could be the last year without a hard slotting system, prompting some to assume teams will go crazy spending.  One NL scouting director Glassey spoke to expressed skepticism about that possibility.
  • Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison echoes the velocity sentiment in this Bill Chastain article for MLB.com: "This is the most guys I've ever seen who are throwing mid-90s."  The Rays have 12 picks between #24 and #89, and Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Chastain the team has "planned in advance for this Draft and the expected financial outlay for this many players in the top of the Draft."    

Quick Hits: Colvin, Olsen, Lackey, Astros

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On this date 15 years ago, Sammy Sosa became the first Cub to homer twice in one inning. Here's the latest from around the league, including a note on a less productive Cubs bat…

  • The Cubs optioned Tyler Colvin to the minors after today's game and GM Jim Hendry told Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune that he wants the outfielder to get regular playing time in Triple-A. As Hendry says, MLB teams are in the "production business."
  • Scott Olsen made about $108K with the Pirates before they released him, according to Colin Dunlap of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter).
  • John Lackey's DL stint probably won't affect Boston's 2015 option for the right-hander, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Though the option will be worth the MLB minimum if Lackey misses extended time because of a right elbow injury that existed before he signed with the Red Sox, he'd have to miss the rest of the season for the option to be affected, according to Bradford.
  • Brian McTaggart of MLB.com looks back at Drayton McLane's 19 years of ownership in Houston. McLane has agreed to sell the Astros to Jim Crane; for details on the sale and how it could impact the franchise, click here.

Pirates Release Scott Olsen

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The Pirates have released Scott Olsen according to Colin Dunlap of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter). He has not pitched this year due to a hamstring injury.

Olsen, 27, signed a one-year worth just $500K this winter, though he could have earned another $3MM through incentives. GM Neal Huntington told Dunlap: "We believed we were not going to have a good opportunity for Scott and made this move to allow him to find a better situation."

Draft Links: Mock Draft, Hultzen, Slotting System

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The amateur draft is now three weeks and two days away, and we're going to start hearing some more rumblings about teams targetting maybe not specific players, but a group of three or four players. Here's the latest…

  • Baseball America's Jim Callis posted his first mock draft, and has the Pirates taking UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole first overall. That link is free for all, but subscribers can see an in-depth analysis of each pick.
  • Rob Biertempfel of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports (on Twitter) that Pirates' GM Neil Huntingon was on hand to scout Virginia RHP Danny Hultzen last night. Click here for Ben Nicholson-Smith's interview with Hultzen, and here for a little more about the team's draft strategy.
  • ESPN's Keith Law says (on Twitter) that Diamondbacks senior vice president of scouting and player development Jerry Dipoto was scouting Hultzen as well. The D'Backs hold the third and seventh overall picks. Click here for the full draft order.
  • Sources tell Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports that an international draft "remains extremely unlikely for the next collective-bargaining agreement," but a hard slotting system that assigns fixed bonuses to each pick is something "MLB will not concede without a fight."

Minor Deals: Brewers, Clevlen, Alaniz, Boleska

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The D'Backs released Ron Mahay and the Mariners claimed Jeff Gray. Here are the rest of today's minor moves…

  • The Brewers released Alex Periard and Demetrius McKelvie, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (Twitter links).
  • The Reds signed Brent Clevlen, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Clevlen, a former top prospect who's now 27, has big league experience with the Tigers and Braves. 
  • The Phillies released Adrian Alaniz, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (on Twitter). The 27-year-old right-hander struggled in eight appearances at Class A this year, posting a 7.71 ERA. He has a 3.19 ERA with 7.8 K/0 and 3.0 BB/9 in five minor league seasons, but has yet to pitch above Double-A.
  • The Pirates released Double-A right-hander Tom Boleska, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (on Twitter). Boleska, a 24-year-old right-hander, has a 2.73 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in five minor league seasons, but has struggled in 12 appearances at Double-A this year.
  • The Mets acquired Bubba Bell from the Indians and assigned him to Triple-A, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (on Twitter). The Indians acquired Bell from the Red Sox in March and he hit .292/.346/.375 at Triple-A..

Pirates Notes: Cole, Rendon, Hultzen, Boleska

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Paul Maholm (2003), Neil Walker (2004), Andrew McCutchen (2005) and Pedro Alvarez (2008) were all first round selections by the Pirates. The last time they had the first overall pick, however, they selected Bryan Bullington (2002), who has yet to make a significant impact in the Major Leagues. The Pirates select first overall this June; here’s the latest on what they’ll do with the top pick:

  • The Pirates appear to be looking primarily at UCLA righty Gerrit Cole, Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon and Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen with the first overall selection, according to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. Nine of 14 scouts predicted that the Pirates will take Cole, with three predicting Rendon and two predicting Hultzen.
  • For interviews with all three players, check out our Draft Prospect Q&A series.
  • All signs point to the Pirates taking a college player rather than, say, high school standout Bubba Starling, according to Mayo.
  • The Pirates released Double-A right-hander Tom Boleska, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (on Twitter). Boleska, a 24-year-old right-hander, has a 2.73 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in five minor league seasons, but has struggled in 12 appearances at Double-A this year.
  • You can follow the Pirates on MLBTR with Facebook, Twitter and RSS.

Gammons On A’s, Pirates, Royals, Rays

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Starting pitching is one of the most valuable assets in the game and, as Peter Gammons explains at MLB.com, small-market teams usually have to rely on the draft to obtain it. Here are Gammons’ latest notes from around the league…

  • A's GM Billy Beane says his current rotation, a group that’s more or less untouchable, could be as good as Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito were. Trevor Cahill has “become one of the best pitchers in the game,” according to Beane.
  • "Let's face it, no small-market team can afford to go into the market to get starting pitching,"  Beane told Gammons. "To survive and compete, you have to draft and develop pitching, or go out and get it before it's on the Major League radar screen."
  • Gammons reports that some expect the Pirates to take Virginia left-hander Danny Hultzen with the first overall pick this June. Click here for MLBTR's Q&A with Hultzen.
  • Georgia Tech Lefty Jed Bradley will likely disappear within the first ten picks of the draft, and Connecticut righty Matt Barnes will likely be a top-15 selection.
  • The Royals are looking for a college starter who can arrive in the Major Leagues and make an impact in the rotation soon.
  • Royals GM Dayton Moore agrees that you need pitching to go along with premium position players. “They're not going to win if we don't find young, affordable pitching," Moore said.
  • The D’Backs, who hold two of the first seven picks this year (#3, #7), will take at least one arm early on and the Rays are also likely to take a number of pitchers with some of their many high picks.

Pirates Notes: McCutchen, Heredia, Ascanio

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The Pirates have won just one of Paul Maholm's eight starts this year, but the left-hander and his 3.60 ERA aren't to blame. Pittsburgh has averaged 1.5 runs per game with Maholm on the hill, including last night's shutout at the hands of the Dodgers. Here's the latest on the Pirates…

  • Jim Bowden of ESPN.com explains that he believes the Pirates should move now to lock Andrew McCutchen long term. Since McCutchen hasn't fully realized his potential, the Pirates could save on an extension and pay him Justin Upton money ($51.25MMM) instead of Carlos Gonzalez money ($80MM). Plus, it would be a positive for fans and other players, Bowden argues. The Pirates have discussed a long-term deal with their center fielder and hope to sign him for five years or more.
  • Tim Dierkes says he expects a six-year deal for McCutchen, who probably won't have to settle for less than $52MM.
  • Pirates prospect Luis Heredia is just 16 years old, but he looks closer to 20, according to Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News. The right-hander retired rehabbing catcher Carlos Ruiz in extended Spring Training, much to the delight of his mother.
  • John Grupp of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review chronicles Jose Ascanio's long path back to the Pirates roster. The right-hander, who was acquired as part of the 2009 Tom Gorzelanny trade, is back in Pittsburgh after a two-year absence.
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