Olney’s Latest: Cardinals, Snell, Milledge, Maine, Fuentes
Buster Olney’s latest offering is packed full of links:
- Bernie Miklasz notes that the Cardinals have only three starting pitchers (Adam Wainwright, Todd Wellemeyer, and Joel Pineiro) locked up for next year (he’s not expecting Chris Carpenter to contribute in 2009), and no prospects waiting in the wings. His solution? Pry open owner Bill DeWitt’s wallet, "and please, no el cheapo deals for rehabbing pitchers, medically risky pitchers, broken-down pitchers."
- The Pirates have it a little bit tougher. According to pitching coach Jeff Andrews, it consists of Paul Maholm and "a blank sheet." Here’s one vote for adding Ian Snell, "on the verge of becoming the best right-handed pitcher to come from Delaware since World War I," according to DelwareBaseball.com, who sponsors his Baseball Reference page.
- According to GM Jim Bowden, the Nationals will explore ways to upgrade their defense for 2009, including the possibility of moving Lastings Milledge from center field back to a corner spot. Left fielder Elijah Dukes could move to center.
- Despite going through a difficult divorce, Padres’ owner John Moores is not planning on selling the team—which he bought because of his soon-to-be ex.
- The Mets seem to be rushing John Maine back from the DL in an attempt to keep their playoff hopes alive.
- Dave Krieger is amazed that the Rockies aren’t doing anything to try and keep free-agent closer Brian Fuentes.
Sarah Green writes for the Boston Metro and Umpbump.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Cards, Sheets, Twins, Pirates, K-Rod, Sabean
A few random notes from around the baseball Blogosphere…
- Rockin’ The Red says one of the priorities for the Cardinals this offseason should be signing a left-handed reliever. They examine the upcoming free agent market and feel Will Ohman and Jeremy Affeldt are the most attractive options.
- Was Watching explores the Yankees "lust" for Ben Sheets and notes that he may be a better option than A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia.
- Twinkie Town projects the Twins ’09 payroll.
- Where have you gone, Andy Van Slyke? says it is better for the Pirates to wait and add payroll noting that a small increase now will not make the Buccos a contender. They believe it makes more sense to wait until ’10 or ’11.
- One writer at Fanhouse feels Chris Perez could keep the Cardinals from signing Francisco Rodriguez, giving the Cards money to spend on the rest of the bullpen.
- Another writer at Fanhouse wonders why Brian Sabean is going to be back in ’09.
- El Lefty Malo says Brian Sabean’s plan has "more or less worked". The suggestion is that it has only been one year since the rebuilding process began.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.
The Adam LaRoche Situation
Pirates first baseman Adam LaRoche will be arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter, and can expect to earn $7MM or so in 2009.
LaRoche has not been bad with the Pirates – .272/.345/.458 in ’07, .269/.340/.480 this year. The problem: he was useless in April both years, continuing a career trend. His lines look much better without April included – .296/.361/.492 in ’07 and .291/.358/.535 this year. That is the kind of production the Pirates expected when they traded Mike Gonzalez for him in January of ’07.
Clearly LaRoche has value, so non-tendering him is out of the question. In April of this year, the Pirates reached a possibly insurmountable impasse in multiyear extension talks with LaRoche. With the Pirates in a clear rebuilding phase, trading him this winter makes sense. Teams that could be in the market for a first baseman: the Yankees, Indians, Angels, A’s, Mariners, and Giants. LaRoche could be Plan B for GMs not willing to pony up the young players needed to acquire Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard. Still, the Pirates do not have payroll problems and will not trade LaRoche just to unload salary.
Odds and Ends: Alvarez, Williams, Tazawa
Today’s links…
- Chat today, 2pm CST.
- Great stuff on the Pedro Alvarez situation from Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein. Goldstein’s source says the union will claim that the Pirates and MLB engaged in a premeditated conspiracy, perhaps designed to take Scott Boras out of the picture by negotiating past midnight. The article is subscription-only. At $40 a year, BP is well worth it.
- It seems that Type B status is slipping away for Tigers reliever Kyle Farnsworth. Ivan Rodriguez recently fell from A to B, but the Yankees may choose not to offer him arbitration.
- Baseball America’s Jim Callis says Mariners top draft pick Joshua Fields wants $2MM, while the team is holding firm at $1.5MM. Fields is advised by Scott Boras.
- Interesting note from last week…Bernie Williams is training and does not consider himself retired.
- Patrick Newman discusses the Junichi Tazawa situation in-depth. He says NPB’s commissioner plans to meet with Bud Selig. One reason MLB looks extra-appealing to Tazawa: NPB limits draft pick bonuses to $1MM.
- Geoff Baker discusses Jose Guillen.
Odds and Ends: LaRoche, Bradley, Burnett
Digging into today’s random links…
- Joel Sherman looks at what went wrong for the Yankees this year. Did they fall too in love with their farm system?
- At least six teams have called the Pirates about third baseman Andy LaRoche in recent weeks. If LaRoche pans out and Pedro Alvarez comes aboard, the Bucs could have a surplus at some point.
- Craig Harris examines the rise of D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes.
- Eddie Bajek updated the Elias rankings for the AL 1B/OF/DH category. They’re fluctuating wildly. Eddie also did catchers for both leagues; Ivan Rodriguez is headed into Type B territory. Gregg Zaun lost Type B status.
- Mike Hindman conducted a roundtable asking what kind of contract the Rangers should offer Milton Bradley.
- 29 teams passed on Rays reliever Grant Balfour last spring. Now he has a 1.62 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 50 innings. Balfour’s been through a lot.
- Joe McDonald and Sean McAdam don’t see the Red Sox signing A.J. Burnett (or any big-name free agent starter).
- Padres CEO Sandy Alderson scoffed at the idea of a $40MM payroll for ’09. I never heard that figure tossed around; Buster Olney suggested the $50MM range.
- Maury Brown heard a rumor that Thomas Ricketts won the bid for the Cubs.
Pirates To Increase Budget Slightly
According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette via team president Frank Coonelly, the Pirates will slightly increase their payroll beyond $54MM next year.
Coonelly says the Bucs will not get involved with high-end free agents, but the money will be there if they see good baseball investments in the mid or lower tiers (free agent list here).
I did an Offseason Outlook for the Pirates on Friday. Even with arbitration raises to eight players, the Pirates should still come in around $40MM (less if Jack Wilson and/or Adam LaRoche are traded). That could mean $10-15MM to spend on free agents. I could see them signing a veteran shortstop as well as a starting pitcher.
Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates
Click here to view previous offseason outlooks. Today, a look at your 2009 Pirates.
C – Ryan Doumit – $412K+
C – Ronny Paulino – $424K
1B – Adam LaRoche – $5MM+
2B – Freddy Sanchez – $6.1MM
SS – Jack Wilson – $7.25MM
3B – Andy LaRoche – $400K
IF – Brian Bixler – $400K
IF – Luis Cruz – $400K
LF – Brandon Moss – $400K
CF – Nate McLouth – $425K+
RF – Steve Pearce – $400K
OF – Nyjer Morgan – $400K
SP – Paul Maholm – $425K+
SP – Ian Snell – $3MM
SP – Tom Gorzelanny – $419K
SP – Ross Ohlendorf – $400K
SP – Zach Duke – $400K+
RP – Matt Capps – $2.3MM
RP – John Grabow – $1.135MM+
RP – Tyler Yates – $800K+
RP – Craig Hansen – $700K
RP – T.J. Beam – $450K
RP – Denny Bautista – $400K+
RP – Phil Dumatrait – $400K
Other candidates: Jeff Karstens – $400K, Daniel McCutchen – $400K, Sean Burnett – $400K, Robinzon Diaz – $400K, Andrew McCutchen – $400K
Non-tender candidates: Jason Davis – $650K+, Raul Chavez – $550K+
Other commitments: Yoslan Herrera – $400K
The Bucs entered ’08 with a $48.7MM payroll. The ’09 team has about $30.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Doumit, LaRoche, McLouth, Maholm, Duke, Grabow, Yates, and Bautista. Even after those, they’ll still be comfortably under $40MM. So there is no need to make payroll-motivated trades.
It is fair to suggest the Pirates moved in the right direction with this year’s trades. This team won’t sniff contention in 2009, even with some breakout seasons. Right now it’s simply a team short on star power without much in the way of hitting or pitching. It will get worse before it gets better if the Bucs move LaRoche and/or Wilson this winter. The focus should be a young shortstop and pitching. The Pirates won’t be signing any significant free agents.
Doumit, McLouth, and Maholm were the bright spots in ’08. Hopefully those players can sustain their success while players like Andy LaRoche, Moss, Snell, and Ohlendorf take a step forward. Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata represent outfield promise for the future. Signing Pedro Alvarez would add another future star to the farm system. Neal Huntington did a nice job amassing young arms this year, and I’m sure he’ll continue to do so. With some luck added, the Pirates could be competitive in 2010.
Tazawa Headed To MLB
As expected, amateur pitcher Junichi Tazawa has decided to forego Japanese baseball and sign with an MLB team. The Braves, Tigers, Red Sox, Pirates, Mets, and Yankees are thought to be in on him. Patrick Newman has a slew of links and videos on Tazawa here.
I am curious what NPB fans think of this development.
Odds and Ends: Sabathia, Pavano, Penny, Burnett
Random links to start the morning…
- Ben Shpigel says Billy Wagner‘s $10.5MM for ’09 is not covered by insurance, making the Mets unlikely suitors for K-Rod (hat tip to MetsBlog).
- The Padres claimed knuckleballer Charlie Haeger. You have to like the move; he’s only 24.
- Ken Davidoff writes about Nationals pitcher Tim Redding, who dreams about returning to the Yankees one day.
- Davidoff also says that contrary to popular belief, C.C. Sabathia did not buy a home in Southern California.
- In another post, Davidoff lists the worst trades of ’08.
- Nats GM Jim Bowden will probably bring in a veteran first baseman next year due to health concerns with Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young.
- Not much cooking on the Pedro Alvarez front…Bud Selig testified yesterday, and the next part of the hearing isn’t until September 23rd.
- Andrew Baggarly explains Bengie Molina‘s contentious relationship with the Giants.
- From Saturday: Carl Pavano‘s side of the story. Can Pavano be a useful pitcher next year?
- Larry Borowsky would like to see the Cardinals enterain an extension for Todd Wellemeyer. He’s eligible for free agency after the ’09 season.
- Joel Sherman isn’t sure the Yankees will invite Andy Pettitte back next year.
- Brad Penny says he pitched through a shoulder injury because of uncertainty around his ’09 option.
- Interesting fact…A.J. Burnett is second in MLB with 3286 pitches thrown (Sabathia jumped into the lead last night). Many of the ’07 leaders in pitches thrown came down with injuries this year.
- Michael O’Keefe sits down with agent Scott Boras.
- ESPN’s Buster Olney notes that the Blue Jays will pursue a shortstop this winter.
- All you ever wanted to know about Dr. James Andrews.
- Jed Hoyer explains where Curt Schilling learned his negotiating tactics.
Odds and Ends: Pettitte, Hampton, Tazawa, Blalock
Let’s round ’em up…
- Chat today, 2pm CST.
- Andy Pettitte seems to want to play next year, but Peter Abraham believes he may have to take a pay cut.
- Gerry Fraley writes about the Rockies and Mike Hampton. It’s safe to rule out a return to Colorado for Hampton, who is currently auditioning for his next team.
- The Royals dismissed their scouting director Deric Ladnier, offering him another position in the organization. Craig Brown reflects on Ladnier’s tenure.
- More Royals linkage: Rany Jazayerli defends the Gil Meche signing and implores the team to lock up Zack Greinke this winter. Jazayerli would also like the team to pick up knuckleballer Charlie Haeger, recently designated for assignment by the White Sox.
- Patrick Newman continues to update us on Japanese amateur pitcher Junichi Tazawa, who is coveted by several MLB teams. If Tazawa starts a trend, an interesting debate could follow. Newman also has a running list of Japanese free agents for this winter.
- Bobby Valentine may be clashing with his boss over in Japan.
- Will the Rangers cut Hank Blalock loose, or exercise his $6.2MM option? Blalock’s ability to play third base remains a question mark, but he will try to improve his arm strength this winter.
- Neither the Pirates nor Pedro Alvarez‘s people will be present at today’s hearing. ESPN’s Buster Olney says Alvarez can’t win – he’s either villified in Pittsburgh or forced into next year’s draft. In the latter case, Alvarez could lose money down the line.