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Adam Dunn: Type B Free Agent?

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As I mentioned earlier, Eddie Bajek's reverse-engineered Elias rankings are subject to change if we find errors.  However, the current end-of-season iteration presents an interesting possibility: Adam Dunn may be a Type B free agent.

We have Dunn at 74.166 points in the NL 1B/OF group, tied with Derrek Lee and just shy of Angel Pagan's 74.353 Type A status.  If Dunn is a Type B, here are the implications:

  • The Nationals would only be able to receive one compensation pick for losing Dunn, not two.  This would make the decision not to trade Dunn in July look worse, and could serve as extra motivation to extend him.
  • The Nationals might be more inclined to offer Dunn arbitration if he's a Type B rather than A.  Dunn's agent at Legacy Sports knows that his client's market will improve if he's a Type B, since the signing team would not have to surrender a draft pick.  An increase in Dunn's free agent stock makes him more likely to decline an arbitration offer from the Nationals in search of a multiyear deal.  The Nationals, knowing Dunn is less likely to accept as a B, might be more likely to offer him arbitration.
  • The market for Dunn will improve.  For example: at #19, the Tigers have the best unprotected draft pick for 2011.  If Dunn is a Type B who turned down an arbitration offer, they can sign him without giving up that prized pick or any others.

Odds & Ends: Gross, Cubs, Dunn, Ellis, Pujols

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Links for the final day of the 2010 regular season…

Cubs GM Says Zambrano Will Stay

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Cubs GM Jim Hendry says that Carlos Zambrano will remain with the club next season, writes Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.  Even though the hurler said earlier this year that he would waive his no-trade clause, Hendry says that he never anticipated dealing him.

"I've never assumed that he really wanted to go," the GM said Sunday. "He earned the contract that he got. I've always assumed that he will be pitching for the Cubs. I'm glad he's righted the ship and had a really good end."

Even if Zambrano doesn't change zip codes in 2011, several Cubs could as the club may look to trim payroll.  Hendry has yet to meet with owner Tom Ricketts about 2011's budget but the GM says that he expects it to be lower than this year.  The Cubs owned the highest payroll in the National League this season.

Tightening the belt could mean that the Cubs won't be able to land a major free agent such as Adam Dunn, which Zambrano suggested that they do earlier today.  Hendry refused to comment on Big Z's suggestion, citing tampering rules.

Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Cubs, Valentine, Dunn

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Ken Rosenthal's weekly Full Count video is up over at FOX Sports; here are your highlights:

  • The Cubs would be taking a risk if they choose to wait for the Yankees' season to end to interview Joe Girardi for their managerial opening. Given that six to ten managerial openings may arise, other candidates such as Eric Wedge and Bob Melvin (who's interviewing today), as well as their internal candidates (Mike Quade and Ryne Sandberg) could find work elsewhere.
  • Boston pitching coach John Farrell's contractual clause that prevents him from interviewing for managerial openings expires this offseason. Rosenthal says he's likely to interview with at least one club. He turned down a chance to interview with the Mariners years ago, but may be a fit once again.
  • Seattle, meanwhile, is also looking at Ted Simmons, Joey Cora, and others. They ultimately may prefer someone with more experience than Farrell.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Mets will hire a new GM before a new manager. Bobby Valentine could indeed return, but everyone involved would need to determine exactly what his responsibilities would be. Wally Backman could also be a candidate to manage the Mets, but his managerial experience comes in A-ball. If hired, the team would need to put a strong coaching staff in place around him.
  • Valentine is still a candidate for the Marlins' managerial opening, as is interim manager Edwin Rodriguez, Jim Fregosi, Tim Wallach, Bo Porter, and Simmons. 
  • There's still a chance that the Nationals could sign Adam Dunn to an extension, and the two sides will speak at least once more before the slugger hits the open market. At this point Dunn would require a deal at market value to return, which Rosenthal suggests could be four years, $60MM. As bad as his defense is, several metrics rate him better than Ryan Howard and Miguel Cabrera with the glove.

Gammons On Ortiz, Beltre, Dunn, Crawford, Dice-K

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In his latest appearance on WEEI's Big Show, Peter Gammons discussed the playoffs, the offseason, and, of course, the Red Sox. Here are the highlights:

  • The Red Sox will likely pick up David Ortiz's 2011 option in part because they'd be afraid to see him playing for the Yankees or Rays if they let him go.
  • Adrian Beltre was never comfortable in Seattle like he was in Los Angeles and is in Boston. Gammons thinks the third baseman could end up signing with the Tigers this winter and wonders if he'd be uncomfortable in Detroit's spacious home park.
  • Although Adam Dunn insists he doesn't want to DH, he may end up having no other choice. The Nationals appear unlikely to re-sign Dunn because "they don’t know where to play him in the field," according to Gammons, who says the Yankees are a potential destination for the slugger.
  • If they pursue either player, the Red Sox are more likely to go after Carl Crawford than Jayson Werth.
  • Crawford signing with the Angels may not be as likely as people think, Gammons says, since owner Arte Moreno "isn’t always great with free agents."
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka is a trade candidate this winter, and Gammons can envision Boston dealing him to the Mets for Carlos Beltran.

Poll: Will The Nationals Re-Sign Adam Dunn?

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Adam Dunn is what he is: one of the few hitters in baseball capable of reaching 40 homers annually and a consistently below average defender. He knows it, the Nationals know it and so do all of Dunn’s other potential suitors. His game hasn’t changed much recently and his strengths and weaknesses will likely remain constant for the next few seasons.

The Nationals would like to build a better defensive team and, with no DH slot, must find room for Dunn on the field if they re-sign him this offseason. Any team would love to add 40 homers to its lineup, but after two years, the Nationals realize that Dunn’s defense is a liability. They are said to like Carlos Pena, another powerful first baseman on the brink of free agency, partly for his glovework.

Despite Dunn’s defense, the Nationals have had interest in re-signing him all season long. At this point it seems likely that Dunn will reach free agency, but the 30-year-old could be a fit in Washington in 2011. Ryan Zimmerman wants the slugger back and so do the Nats fans who have been encouraging the team’s front office to keep him. But their wish won’t necessarily come true…

Will the Nationals re-sign Adam Dunn?

Click here to vote and here to view the results.

Cubs Rumors: Ramirez, Dunn, Payroll

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The Cubs are finishing up their first losing season since 2006; of course the focus is on next year.  The latest:

  • The Cubs "remain intent on taking a run at Joe Girardi," tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.
  • The Red Sox "have a lot of interest" in Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez, reported ESPN's Bruce Levine in a chat yesterday.  It is assumed Ramirez will exercise his $14.6MM player option for 2011, and the clubs would have to work around issues of a no-trade clause and an assignment bonus.  Plus, I imagine the Cubs would have to swing another trade to find someone to replace Ramirez at the hot corner.
  • Levine writes that "Adam Dunn is a top priority for the Cubs if they can afford him."  We learned last month that Dunn likes Wrigley Field and Jim Hendry, but the slugger made it clear yesterday he's tired of discussing his future.
  • Levine notes that Cubs ownership has indicated there will be a slight decrease in payroll for next year.  Hendry might have to move a current contract or two to create flexibility.
  • Cubs starter Ryan Dempster endorsed Mike Quade as manager, saying to CSNChicago's Patrick Mooney and others, "He’s done a great job and I hope that he’s here longer than just this year (and) managing for us next year because he deserves it."  Mooney also spoke to hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, who's intent on honoring his three-year contract regardless of the team's manager changes.

Nationals Unlikely To Re-Sign Dunn?

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The Nationals are unlikely to re-sign slugger Adam Dunn, according to MASN's Ben Goessling.  Goessling's sources say GM Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman find Dunn's defense untenable, and the team will seek a better defensive first baseman like Carlos Pena.  Goessling also hears that outfielder Jayson Werth "could be a possibility" for the Nationals this offseason.    

On September 19th, Dunn told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that extension talks "have picked back up."  At that time Dunn expected to reach free agency in November, but still re-sign with Washington.

Dunn is known to be seeking four years but would be open to three with the Nationals.  Goessling expects the Nats to offer arbitration to the Type A free agent.  If they do, Dunn will have to decide whether to accept on November 30th.  As I mentioned earlier today, Dunn's low Elias number (projected at 75.000 currently) increases the chances of the Nationals failing to snag a first-round pick as part of the compensation.

Talks Picking Up Between Dunn, Nationals

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Talks about a contract extension between Adam Dunn and the Nationals have "picked back up" according to the first baseman, and he says a deal "could happen today." That appears to be a little optimistic on Dunn's part, but we'll let you decide. Here is exactly what he said, courtesy of The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore…

"I do [think I'll be a National in 2011]," Dunn said. "More than I did a month ago. Talks have picked back up. We'll see what happens. We're obviously talking. We're going to work something out, I think."

"Going to free agency doesn't mean I'm leaving here. I'm sure whenever the season is over, I'll have, whatever it is, a month. If things haven't worked out here, yeah, it's going to go to free agency. But that doesn't mean I'm not coming here."

The Adam Dunn contract extension saga has lasted all year long, with both sides expressing interest in getting a deal done only to have nothing in place with the season about to draw to a close. Dunn indicated that he's in no hurry to sign, acknowledging that it's probably a disadvantage for him to agree to a deal without at least seeing what the open market has to offer.

Dunn, 30, is hitting .262/.358/.542 with 35 homers this season. He's gone deep at least 35 times in seven straight years, and right now the ability to hit for power is at a premium around the league. Despite the obvious fit, Dunn reiterated that he does not want to be a full-time designated hitter in the future, something that will work against him as a free agent. 

Odds & Ends: Rangers, Pirates, Cotts, Marlins

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Links for Friday, before Dan Haren celebrates his 30th birthday by taking on one of baseball's most potent offenses…

  • MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan lists ten decisions that have been critical to the Rangers' success this season.
  • The Pirates have released lefty Neal Cotts according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America and this week's edition of minor league transaction.
  • Padres' first base coach Rick Renteria is on the Marlins radar with regards to their managerial opening, says MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. He adds that Yankees bench coach Tony Pena is a candidate as well. 
  • Chipper Jones told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that it would be hard to stop playing before his body prevents him from doing so, partly because “you can make absurd amounts of money” as a baseball player.
  • Former Orioles manager Dave Trembley told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that he’d like to coach in the major leagues next year (Twitter link).
  • The Pirates' minor league success has been a major positive this year, but Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette questions how the Pirates also allowed for "near-total destruction of the major-league product." The team is 50 games below .500 with the worst record in baseball.
  • Carl Crawford told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that his impending free agency hasn't been hard to handle, since the Rays are winning. Click here for Bradford's analysis of how Crawford would fit in Fenway.
  • Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald breaks down Boston's options behind the plate for 2011, from free agents Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek to new acquisition Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
  • John Dewan of the Fielding Bible explained to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that Adam Dunn's poor defense wouldn't necessarily prevent the Nationals from building a better defensive team.
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