Odds & Ends: Lincecum, Gonzalez, Damon
Let's check out some Wednesday morning links….
- With rumors of Tim Lincecum's arbitration filing abound, Dave Cameron at FanGraphs determines that the two-time defending NL Cy Young Award winner could realistically get about $12-14MM this year. Cameron notes that Lincecum's success isn't unprecedented; Roger Clemens took the baseball world by storm in a similar fashion over two decades ago.
- Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune believes there will be a time for the Padres to trade Adrian Gonzalez, but that it hasn't come yet.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports examines some of the more intriguing arbitration decisions around the majors.
- Johnny Damon isn't stressing too much over his future, according to MLB.com's Bryan Hoch.
- Sam Donnellon of the Philadelphia Daily News thinks Chone Figgins would look good atop the Phillies' lineup.
- Aiming to quell the concerns of Tigers fans, John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press points out a few reasons why the Miguel Cabrera trade rumors are lacking in substance.
- WEEI's Rob Bradford breaks down why Roy Halladay should be a priority for the Red Sox. In another article, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes that we should soon find out how badly the Jays and Red Sox want to get a deal done.
- Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball provides an interesting read on the dissent between baseball's management and labor.
Olney On Halladay, Wagner, Bay
In his ESPN.com column today, Buster Olney notes that many teams are waiting to get involved in the free agent market, meaning there might not be many moves made in the next couple weeks. Here are a few other highlights from Olney's blog:
- One executive tells Olney that the Blue Jays' chances of moving Roy Halladay are no better than 50/50. Another source suggests that the Jays could have had three top prospects for Halladay last summer, whereas now they could probably only land one star prospect and a second with some major-league potential.
- Billy Wagner's Type A status could make him undesirable to clubs not wanting to give up any draft picks to sign him. However, Wagner could make himself more attractive by lowering his contract demands. If a team thought they were getting a potentially elite closer at a discount, they'd be more willing to part with a draft pick.
- Olney hears from a pair of execs that the Red Sox will continue to take the Jason Bay negotiations slowly, and that the team would ultimately prefer to sign Matt Holliday.
- The Padres likely won't want to pay Kevin Correia a raise through arbitration. The team will try to work out a "moderate-sized deal" with him, and if they can't do it, the right-hander could be non-tendered.
- Olney reiterates what he wrote in yesterday's blog: it doesn't seem like Adrian Gonzalez is going anywhere.
- Randy Wolf has received plenty of interest from teams looking at starting pitching.
Olney On Cabrera, Yankees, Cust, Rays
In today's blog post at ESPN, Buster Olney writes about the potential market for Miguel Cabrera, who is now apparently available in a trade. He notes the enormous financial commitment attached to Cabrera's All-World bat, and discusses the Red Sox, Angels, Mets, White Sox, Giants, Mariners, and Braves as potential landing spots.
Here's the rest of Olney's rumors…
- Olney tweets that the Astros' payroll will be cut from $107MM to the low $90MMs.
- Olney says the Yankees will look to add two relievers in all likelihood, though it's unclear if they're willing to give up a first round pick for one of the Type-A bullpen arms. For what it's worth, GM Brian Cashman said the bullpen wasn't an area of "obvious need" yesterday.
- Jack Cust could be in line for a $4.5MM payday through arbitration, which just might get him non-tendered. Given all the DH-types on the market, that might not be a good thing for Cust. We learned yesterday that the Mets might be among the suitors for him.
- Regarding a potential Milton Bradley to Tampa trade, Olney says the Rays "absolutely will not do it unless it's on their terms, which is that the Cubs might absorb enough money in the swap of Bradley and (Pat) Burrell to make it worthwhile for the Rays."
- Olney also reiterates that it's extremely unlikely the Padres will move Adrian Gonzalez given his favorable contract.
Red Sox Willing To Pay Half Of Lowell’s Salary
The Red Sox are shopping third baseman Mike Lowell and are willing to eat half of his $12MM salary for next season, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. However, a rival executive says that he would be surprised if another club would even be willing to pay Lowell $6MM.
The 35-year-old has played less than 120 games in each of the last two seasons. While he remains productive offensively, Rosenthal and Morosi point out that he posted a .932 OPS in Fenway Park while batting for a .713 OPS on the road. However, it should be noted that Lowell's production hasn't followed this pattern every year in Boston. While he hit much better at home than on the road in 2007 and 2009, his away numbers were actually stronger in 2006 and 2008.
Theo Epstein has to move Lowell and shift Kevin Youkilis to third if he acquires Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres. Boston could also move Lowell to create an opening for free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre.
Who should be calling the BoSox about Lowell? How much of his $12MM salary would you make the Red Sox pay? Let's hear your thoughts in the comments.
Cafardo On Lackey, Sheffield, Pavano
In his usual Sunday morning column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo passes on some hot stove talk from around the majors. Let's check out the highlights….
- The fate of John Lackey could potentially affect the offseason plans of each of the AL East powers. Both the Yankees and Red Sox have interest, and Cafardo suggests that landing Lackey would allow the Red Sox to turn around and move Clay Buchholz in a deal for a coveted bat, like Adrian Gonzalez.
- Cafardo relays this quote from an AL GM: "The Red Sox could be the major player this offseason if certain things fall together for them. They still have enough chips in their farm system to make something big happen."
- The Yankees, meanwhile, appear willing to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain in the hunt for Roy Halladay, though they'd like to hang on to Austin Jackson.
- Gary Sheffield will return in 2010 and has softened his stance on DHing since his Tigers days. He now says he'd accept a DH role, though he'd still like to play in the field occasionally. Cafardo names a handful of teams that could find a spot for Sheffield, noting that the 41-year-old would love to return to Atlanta or play in his hometown of Tampa Bay.
- The Twins and Brewers are "very interested" in Carl Pavano.
- The Brewers could also be players for John Smoltz, though the Cardinals would like to bring him back.
Hoyer Met With Gonzalez’s Agent
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reports that new Padres' GM Jed Hoyer met with John Boggs, agent for Adrian Gonzalez, on Friday. The two-hour lunch meeting was said to be more of a "get-acquainted session" than a formal negotiation. Said Boggs:
"There wasn't any kind of negotiating or exchanging of numbers or anything like that. I'm sure we're going to keep the dialogue open, but nothing is imminent at this point. The way we're looking at it, Adrian is a Padre until something happens . And they're the ones who are really in control of the situation.''
Hoyer declined comment, but Boggs said the two sides "agreed to stay in contact over the coming weeks."
Gonzalez is the biggest name on the trade block (non-pitcher division), and several clubs, including the Red Sox, Mets, and White Sox are said to be interested in the first baseman. The 27-year-old Gonzalez hit .306/.402/.643 with 28 homers in 80 games away from Petco Park last year, and is owed just $10.25MM over the next two seasons, assuming his 2011 option is picked up.
Gammons & Edes On Boston’s Offseason
In a piece for ESPN Boston, Peter Gammons and Gordon Edes answered five key questions about the Red Sox and the upcoming offseason. There's not many hard rumors in the piece, but there's plenty of discussion topics, so let us know what you think…
- Both Gammons and Edes believe the Sox will retain Jason Bay (Gammons guesses the contract will be in the four year, $64MM range), and neither is sure who will compete with them for his services.
- The Red Sox "can easily" keep shortstop Alex Gonzalez at a reduced rate even though they declined his option earlier this month. Gammons feels the team needs depth and mentions Marco Scutaro, while Edes doesn't think it would be wise to make a long-term commitment that would block prospect Jose Iglesias.
- When it comes to blockbuster trades, Gammons thinks the only way the team pulls one off is if they a) get frustrated during contract extension negotiations with Josh Beckett, or b) can get Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez.
- Edes says it wouldn't be a Red Sox offseason if they didn't explore a big trade, but he thinks it's a longshot that they'll acquire Gonzalez. He says another run at Roy Halladay is more likely.
- Gammons notes the Sox would like to add a righthanded batter than could play center and right, and they've long been intrigued by Cody Ross. He mentions that the Marlins tried to get Manny Delcarmen in July.
- Both writers believe they will make a run at Rich Harden, and Gammons thinks they'll go after Ben Sheets as well.
- And finally, Gammons says the team believes they will not be the high bidder for Aroldis Chapman, but they made a strong case for Boston as the place he'd want to be.
Red Sox Express Interest In Four Boras Clients
The Red Sox have expressed interest in four players – all Scott Boras clients – early in the hot stove season, according to Mike Silverman of The Boston Herald. Those four players would be Matt Holliday, Adrian Beltre, Mike Gonzalez, and Rick Ankiel.
Silverman notes that the Sox consider Holliday and alternative to Jason Bay, should they fail to re-sign him. Gonzalez could replace Billy Wagner, although Ankiel is somewhat redundant after the team acquired Jeremy Hermida earlier this month. Beltre could replace Mike Lowell at third, who Silverman says may "wind up being traded if the Red Sox go out and find a big-slugging first baseman," mentioning Adrian Gonzalez.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Wood, Sheets, Bradley, Wagner
On this date two years ago, Mike Lowell re-signed with the Red Sox for three-years, $37.5MM. In this first two years of the deal, Lowell has taken in $25.5MM, and according to his WAR has been worth $19.9MM. In '10, Lowell will be 36 as he enters the final year of his deal. Today is the first day of free agency, let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…
- Howard Megdal and Chris Pummer of The Perpetual Post debate the Oliver Perez and Derek Lowe signings of a year ago.
- The Ghost of Moonlight Graham looks which teams might be interested in trading for Kerry Wood.
- Jorge Says No! look at which teams might be a good fit for Ben Sheets, with eight teams that could be in the hunt.
- The Sports Banter ranks the top free agents.
- MetsCitiBlog doesn't see the Mets signing Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, and feels they should set their sights on Adrian Gonzalez.
- UmpBump is running a series on what each team needs this off-season. Here is the Giants.
- Bleacher Nation wonders why the Braves aren't rumored to be in on the Milton Bradley sweepstakes.
- Baseball Time In Arlington thinks there should be plenty of money in the budget to bring back Bradley.
- 10 Scoreless projects the Twins' roster for next season.
- MLB Notebook looks at what it would take for the Mariners to compete next season.
- The Pinstriper makes some free agent predictions, with Billy Wagner ending up with the Rays.
- River Ave Blues breaks down what Hideki Matsui is worth to the Yankees.
- Sox and Pinstripes discusses the ramifications of a salary cap in baseball from the point of view of a Yankees fan.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.
Heyman: Yankees, Red Sox Have Shot At Halladay
Jon Heyman's latest column begins with this simple declaration:
"The Yankees recently called the Blue Jays to express interest in superstar pitcher Roy Halladay."
And Heyman points out the change in administrations in Toronto- from J.P. Ricciardi to Alex Anthopoulos- means an in-division trade is no longer out of the question.
Heyman also points out that with Halladay seeking a big payday from whoever acquires him, the suitors for his services could quickly dwindle to the precious few big-market teams who can afford to pay him long-term.
He lists the Yankees as option 1, the Red Sox as option 1A for Halladay. Keeping him in Toronto for now is second, with the Phillies, Angels and Mets all trailing behind.
Heyman's column also discusses topics ranging from Adrian Gonzalez to Zack Greinke, and is obviously worth a read.