Perrotto’s Latest: Red Sox, Mets, Burnett, Blalock
John Perrotto over at Baseball Prospectus has his weekly column up… let’s take a look at what he has to say:
- Couple of notes about the Red Sox: Perrotto expects Theo Epstein to re-sign Jason Varitek to a two-year deal in the $16MM range. This seems like drastically overpaying for what Varitek has become, in my opinion, but as Perrotto points out, there’s very little on the free agent market. Epstein will then look to trade for a young catcher who can become the starter in 2010 or 2011. Additionally, he’ll try to move Mike Lowell to open up a spot for either Mark Teixeira or Garrett Atkins, but that won’t be an easy task most likely. On a Manny-related note, Terry Francona said the last couple months of 2008 were the "most fun he’s ever had" in Boston, calling them "tremendous." He didn’t mention Manny specifically, but does he really have to?
- Perrotto says the Mets have decided to pass on Francisco Rodriguez, and will instead pursue Brian Fuentes, as well as Derek Lowe. The Red Sox may also make a strong pitch for Lowe.
- The Padres will likely take some gambles on rehabbing pitchers for 2009. Perrotto lists Mark Mulder, Matt Clement, and Mark Prior as candidates.
- Toronto’s interim president Paul Beeston is making A.J. Burnett the organization’s top priority, and Perrotto feels that Burnett wants to stay. Personally, I’m in the other camp and see Burnett opting out and cashing in on a big payday.
- The Rangers will almost certainly pick up Hank Blalock’s $6.2MM option for 2009.
Blue Jays Rumors: Burnett, Manny, Ryan
10:07pm: Dave O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution heard the Blue Jays will make Burnett a "take it or leave it" offer of four years, $54MM ($13.5MM per year). Burnett’s agent hasn’t heard that, and Ricciardi says there’s no offer on the table currently. Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail says the Jays have indicated privately they’ll do a three-year, $48MM deal ($16MM per year). On the open market, Burnett can probably get four or five years at a higher salary.
10:06am: A little more on Ricciardi’s talks with Burnett’s agent. Here, Ricciardi says talks have been "very productive." But here, Ricciardi says they’re "not going bad, they’re not going good. They’re fine."
8:42am: Talking to Cathal Kelly at the Toronto Star, Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi gives the standard line of being willing to trade any player if it makes the team better. Beyond that, he gave some quotes about his offseason plans.
- Ricciardi says payroll will be $100MM, which should mean $15MM+ to spend after A.J. Burnett leaves for greener pastures. Ricciardi may allow for uncertainty in the rotation and spend that money on a slugger. He likes Manny Ramirez, but doesn’t sound optimistic on signing him.
- Burnett hasn’t officially decided whether to opt out, but…c’mon. The Jays’ exclusive window to talk to him will depend on when he opts out. Burnett’s agent set salary expectations at more than Derek Lowe, less than C.C. Sabathia.
- Ricciardi says trading B.J. Ryan is not a priority for the Jays at present.
- To sum it all up: Burnett is a long shot, he won’t be replaced with another free agent starter, Manny is unlikely, Marco Scutaro is the shortstop, and Ryan is probably staying put. If all of those things hold true, it may be difficult to improve in 2008. On the other hand, full seasons of Vernon Wells, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider, and a free agent hitter could result in a decent offense.
Ricciardi On Burnett, Manny, Shortstop
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports talked to Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi today.
Re-signing A.J. Burnett is one of Ricciari’s primary goals, but Rosenthal says J.P. won’t spend $15-18MM on another free agent starter if Burnett leaves.
The Jays also want to add a hitter. Ricciardi’s take on Manny Ramirez:
"Manny is not priority No. 1. I can’t even say he’s priority No. 2. It would really be a long shot for us to bring him to Toronto. He’s on our radar, but maybe not on our radar like some people will report. I don’t see us getting involved in unbelievable, astronomical numbers. We would not go down that path."
The Jays are expected to add some kind of hitter, with free agent Raul Ibanez a person of interest from July. Rosenthal has also mentioned Jason Giambi as someone to consider. A shortstop signing seems unlikely. Ricciardi said he would "really need to be knocked over" to replace Marco Scutaro as the starter.
Peavy Rumors: Wednesday
Another day, another batch of Jake Peavy links.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post talked to several executives. They expect Peavy will be traded to the Braves for Tommy Hanson, Jordan Schafer, and one of Kelly Johnson/Yunel Escobar. This scenario becomes more plausible to me if Johnson/Escobar is replaced with a lesser player. But, maybe I am misguided. Buster Olney also talked to execs who envision a Hanson/Schafer/Johnson package.
- Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune checked with Towers and Peavy’s agent Barry Axelrod, and learned that Peavy has a clean bill of health. Krasovic also discusses Peavy’s violent delivery and minimal usage of his changeup.
- Chipper Jones likes the idea of the Braves acquiring Peavy, and also would welcome A.J. Burnett as a teammate.
- Axelrod agrees that the Braves are the frontrunner and the Astros may not have the goods for Peavy. He downplayed Peavy’s friendship with Roy Oswalt as a factor in his decision.
Perrotto’s Latest: Peavy, Unit, Joba
John Perrotto has his Every Given Sunday column up over at Baseball Prospectus. Here’s some highlights from his "Rumors and Rumblings section" this week:
- Perrotto expects a Jake Peavy deal to be done before the Winter Meetings, stating that the Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers seem to be the leaders in the race right now. He notes that the Yankees will be willing to include Phil Hughes, while the Braves are willing to move Yunel Escobar. I personally like the Escobar idea for San Diego, as it would allow them to make Atlanta take on Khalil Greene’s salary. A package around Escobar and Tommy Hanson would certainly be tough to ignore.
- Perrotto reiterates that a move to the Dodgers or Angels for California-native Randy Johnson seems like a strong possibility. Johnson posted a fine season for the Diamondbacks, despite being 45 years old. He’s maintained a very solid strikeout-rate even at this stage in his career, fanning 8.46 batters per nine innings.
- The Yankees are planning on using Joba Chamberlain in their rotation next year, but are not planning on settling for what they have. Perrotto states that the Yankees will "go all-in" on the free agent market, making aggressive offers to C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Mark Teixeira. Add in the pursuit of Peavy, and decisions on numerous free agents, and it looks like a very busy offseason for the Bombers.
Olney’s Latest: Teixeira, Sabathia, Ramirez, Burnett
Buster Olney has some fun-to-read analysis of last night’s game, as well as some solid rumors for our consumption:
- The Yankees seem almost destined to sign Mark Teixeira this offseason, but while it’s been suggested that Teixeira is seeking upwards of 10 years, $200MM, the Yankees may be looking to offer half of that, or "a deal in the range of 6 years, $18-20MM a year." Good news for the Orioles who look to be the biggest competitor for the Yankees in pursuing both Teixeira and A.J. Burnett.
- The Yankees are gearing up to offer CC Sabathia "an offer that may dwarf those of other clubs, by a factor of 30 or 40 percent." Olney feels that may be a necessary surcharge to convince Sabathia to pitch in the Big Apple.
- An interesting note: a few months ago, the suggested numbers for a Manny Ramirez contract were 3 or 4 years and $45MM; however, Scott Boras is effectively "working to change the perception of what is an acceptable offer… trying to raise the bar in the minds of teams, so that in the end, somebody might give him 3 years, $60MM and feel like they’re getting a bargain." I’ll add that Manny has done a lot, if not more, to change this perception as well.
- Make of this what you will but Derek Jeter, whether intentional or not, contributed toward restoring Roger Clemens‘ image by standing beside him on the sidelines of the nationally televised Longhorns game yesterday. Olney notes, "I know a whole lot of image-conscious players who would not have done that." Clemens is still unsure whether he is officially retired or not.
Heyman’s Latest: Yankees Offseason Plans
The latest column by Jon Heyman of SI.com is full of all kinds of Yankees notes:
- They will pursue a top-of-the-rotation starter, and yes, C.C. Sabathia is one of them, but the list also includes A.J. Burnett, Jake Peavy, Derek Lowe, and possibly Ben Sheets. As we wrote yesterday, Peavy’s agent said he’d need "a lot of convincing" to approve a deal to the American League.
- According to Heyman the goal is for the Bombers to "secure more than one of them."
- The Yankees have targeted Mark Teixeira but may also take a look at Manny Ramirez (Heyman has mentioned the Manny to the Yankees possibility before, as has Ken Rosenthal).
- Interest in Teixeira almost certainly means that Jason Giambi is not returning in 2009.
- Center field is another position the Yankees hope to fill, but they may go the trade route and Heyman mentions Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy as possible bait.
- If Mike Mussina decides to pitch again in 2009, the Yankees would want him back. A couple of weeks ago, Buster Olney wrote about a "growing sense" that Mussina would be returning for another season.
Alejandro A. Leal writes for UmpBump.com and can be reached here: alexo05 -at- umpbump -dot- com.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Bradley, Peavy, Young
A look at what is being written around the Blogosphere…
- Goat Riders of the Apocalypse looks at Milton Bradley and sees a clubhouse cancer, but can’t ignore his .999 OPS and wonders if he is the answer in right field for the Cubs.
- Pinstripes Published takes a look at the crop of free agent starting pitchers and speculates on who will sign with the Yankees, with the most likely being C.C. Sabathia, Jon Garland and Ryan Dempster.
- Chop-n-Change takes a look at which prospects it might take to land Jake Peavy, and wonders if a package built around RHP Tommy Hanson and OF Jordan Schafer could get it done.
- Talking Chop does not want to the Braves giving up prospects for Peavy and would rather see the Braves acquire pitching through free agency.
- First And Goal From Second Base warns that it will be a mistake for the Twins to trade Delmon Young.
- Twinkie Town takes a look at which Twins free agents could return (Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes) and the rest of the Twins offseason.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.
Odds and Ends: Gillick, Cashman, Burnett
Links for Tuesday…
- Tim’s chat will be moved to Wednesday at 2pm CST.
- J.C. Bradbury thinks A.J. Burnett would be wise to accept Toronto’s two-year, $30MM extension offer.
- Ken Rosenthal examines the Caucasian-ness of the Red Sox roster, and what it could mean to their free agent targets.
- The AL free agent catchers list is done at Detroit Tigers Thoughts. Eddie has Ivan Rodriguez as the last Type A, though that’s not concrete.
- Sox Machine tries to determine the trade value of the White Sox roster. They consider John Danks, Carlos Quentin, Gordon Beckham, and Aaron Poreda basically untouchable.
- The Tigers will start looking for a new pitching coach today, though the candidates are unknown.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post thinks Brian Cashman should hire soon-to-be-ex-Phillies’ GM Pat Gillick as a consultant. Surprisingly, Sherman never mentions that Gillick worked with the Yankees in the past. He was their scouting director in 1975 and 1976 before moving onto the Blue Jays.
- Craig at Fishstripes looks at the ridiculous Dan Uggla and Scott Olsen for Yorvit Torrealba and a pitching prospect speculation, which appeared on MLB.com.
Odds and Ends: Steinbrenner, Burnett, Sabathia
Links for Sunday, before I head out to Chipotle…
- Hank Steinbrenner talked to George King of the New York Post. He made it clear that he has not taken a step back in running the Yankees. Hank also mentions Mark Teixeira by name, calling him a "quality player."
- Ken Davidoff tries to determine if A.J. Burnett‘s injury-prone days are behind him, as his agent would like us to believe.
- Henry Schulman chatted with Dodgers GM Ned Colletti.
- John Shea lays odds for the C.C. Sabathia bidding.
- Phil Rogers campaigns for an extension for Cubs GM Jim Hendry. He wonders if Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood would follow if Hendry joined a different team.
- A’s GM Billy Beane talked to Matthew Lutovsky of the Sporting News about fantasy baseball as well as a new video game.