Extension Candidate: Albert Pujols
Baseball is a numbers game, whether you're talking about home runs, on-base percentage or xFIP. It's also a numbers game off the field when it comes to players' contracts. Some deals are entirely predictable. Shin-Soo Choo, for example, will likely earn $3-4MM through arbitration next year; Carl Pavano will probably sign for about $10MM per season; Russell Branyan's likely in line for another one-year deal.
But most of the comparable players for Albert Pujols are in Cooperstown, not in uniform. So determining a fair price for the 30-year-old will be a unique challenge for Cardinals GM John Mozeliak and agent Dan Lozano. Quite simply, there is not much precedent for Pujols.
Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard signed contracts that could come up in talks between Pujols' representatives and his team. Both Rodriguez and Howard are former MVPs who signed long-term deals that begin with their age-32 seasons. Pujols, who has three MVP trophies on his mantle, will be 32 in 2012, which would be the first season of a potential new deal.
Howard, a tremendous player who isn't on the same level as Pujols, received $125MM for his age 32-36 seasons. Rodriguez, an all-time great who was arguably the best player in the game when he signed his extension, will make an average of $27.5MM per season (plus bonuses) for his age 32-41 seasons.
Rodriguez and Howard aren't perfect matches for Pujols, but few other contemporary players even compare. Baseball-Reference lists Ken Griffey Jr., Manny Ramirez and Juan Gonzalez as similar batters to Pujols through age 30. Seven Hall of Famers including Lou Gehrig, Hank Aaron and Mickey Mantle fill out the top ten list of his most statistically comparable players.
In other words, Pujols is in select company. Not only is the nine-time All-Star and two-time defending NL home run champion one of the best players of his generation, he's one of the best players of all time.
A similar argument led Rodriguez to the two biggest contracts in baseball history. But A-Rod hadn't won a World Series with the Yankees or endeared himself to their fans when he signed his most recent contract.
Pujols, on the other hand, defines the Cardinals much like Derek Jeter defines the Yankees. The Cards developed Pujols after drafting him in the 13th round of the 1999 draft (when Mozeliak was the team's scouting director). Five years later, the Cardinals were in the World Series and in 2006 the team won its first world title since 1982.
Pujols means more to the Cardinals now than A-Rod did to the Yankees in 2007, but Rodriguez does have one considerable advantage over the Cardinals' 6'3" slugger: he plays a more demanding defensive position. Not only that, the Yankees have the option of working Rodriguez's bat into the lineup as a DH at the end of his deal, but the Cardinals will have to play Pujols on the field for the life of his extension, even if his now-stellar glovework deteriorates.
As tempting as it is to compare Pujols to Rodriguez, Howard and various historical players, it doesn't make much sense to do so. The Cardinals don't have as much money as the Yankees and the sides could get creative with incentives and performance bonuses to ensure that the star first baseman stays put. Not much is certain about Pujols' demands or the Cardinals' willingness to spend, but we can say this: Pujols is on track to become an inner-circle Hall of Famer and it would not be unreasonable for him to ask for an Alex Rodriguez-like contract.
Quick Hits: Pujols, Jones, Nationals, Ledezma
One year ago today, the Reds won the bidding for Aroldis Chapman. The Cuban left-hander made 15 relief appearances in the majors last year and figures to have an even bigger impact on the 2011 season. Here are today's links…
- The Cardinals' negotiations with Albert Pujols could resemble the Yankees' negotiations with Alex Rodriguez, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Cardinals executives have acknowledged that an extension with their first baseman would take the organization "places it hasn't gone" in terms of contract value and potential incentive clauses, Goold writes.
- Benjamin Kabak of River Ave. Blues says he'd lean toward Andruw Jones over Marcus Thames for the Yankees in 2011.
- Meanwhile, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports that the Rockies still have some interest in Jones (Twitter link).
- The Rangers are concerned that Jim Thome would prefer to return to Minnesota, according to Danny Knobler of CBS Sports (on Twitter). The Rangers are interested in Thome, though he's not a perfect fit for their needs.
- The Nationals need a utility player who can back Danny Espinosa up at second base and potentially play in the outfield, according to Ben Goessling of MASNSports.com. He lists Willie Bloomquist, David Eckstein and Willie Harris as possible fits.
- Dan Szymborski explains the challenges the Giants face if they want to repeat as World Champions in a piece for ESPN.
- The Blue Jays announced that they outrighted Wil Ledezma to Triple-A Las Vegas.
Cards Notes: Pujols, Penny, Punto, Eckstein
In a chat with fans today, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch dished out some information about the Cardinals' remaining offseason wants, some free agent rumors and the Albert Pujols extension talks. Here are some of the highlights…
- Strauss thinks it's "feasible" that Pujols could agree to an extension that doesn't stretch over as many years (maybe a five- or six-year deal) but pays him the highest average annual salary in baseball history. This way Pujols gets his big payout, but it doesn't leave St. Louis on the hook for a huge salary in the seventh or eighth year of a longer contract.
- The Cardinals are looking for some infield depth at shortstop and third base, plus another starter to provide rotation depth. They're looking for players with Major League experience to fill these roles, but on non-guaranteed contracts.
- There is "little enthusiasm" for bringing back Brad Penny. Strauss isn't sure Penny would be content with serving as an emergency starter out of the bullpen.
- If the Cards sign a backup infielder, it will have to be an infielder who is "adroit" at third base in case David Freese can't handle the everyday job. This seems to rule out a return to St. Louis for David Eckstein, but Strauss says Nick Punto "is a popular name within some quarters of the organization." We haven't heard much about Punto since the Winter Meetings, where the former Twins infielder engaged in "meaningful negotiations" with Cleveland.
- The Cardinals believe Mitchell Boggs and/or Jason Motte can develop into a solid closer, so there isn't much interest in Rafael Soriano.
Cardinals Open Extension Talks With Albert Pujols
The Cardinals have opened extension talks with Albert Pujols, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Negotiations between the team and agent Dan Lozano have been “positive” so far, Strauss reports.
The Cardinals are discussing potential deals with considerably more urgency than they were a year ago, when Pujols was two seasons away from free agency. The first baseman is now just months away from the open market, so he’s the team’s top remaining offseason priority.
Lozano did not exchange figures with Cardinals GM John Mozeliak when the pair discussed a Pujols extension at last month’s Winter Meetings. Pujols has said he will not negotiate once he reports to Spring Training in February, so the sides have less than two months to work out an agreement.
Cardinals Rumors: Pujols, Backup Catcher, Berkman
On Wednesday night, we heard that the Cardinals would like to add some pitching depth to supplement their current staff. As we enter the early hours of Thursday morning, let's take a look at some other Cardinals notes:
- Jayson Stark of ESPN.com discusses Albert Pujols' contract negotiations, wondering if the Cardinals will be able to fit an Alex Rodriguez-esque contract into their budget. Within the piece, Tony La Russa reiterates that Pujols doesn't want negotiations to leak into spring training, leading Stark to conclude that if the two sides don't reach an agreement within the next ten weeks, Pujols will be heading for free agency.
- Speaking to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, however, Cards chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said he wasn't feeling any urgency about a Pujols extension.
- Goold writes that the team believed they were close to a deal for a backup catcher before talks faltered late Tuesday night. As of Wednesday, the Cardinals' search for a catcher was in a "holding pattern," according to GM John Mozeliak. St. Louis has been linked to names such as Bengie Molina and Gregg Zaun so far at the Winter Meetings.
- La Russa told Goold that the Cardinals may go into the year with newly-signed Lance Berkman in right field and Matt Holliday in left, rather than vice versa as initially thought.
Possible Extensions For Pujols, Uggla, Cahill
TUESDAY, 7:39pm: Braves GM Frank Wren and agent Terry Bross will discuss an Uggla extension soon, according to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Wren says he would like to sign Uggla to an extension and is optimistic about reaching one.
MONDAY, 8:43pm: The Cardinals, Braves and Athletics have interest in locking up star players to multiyear extensions. Cardinals GM John Mozeliak met with the representatives for Albert Pujols today, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (on Twitter).
The Marlins traded Dan Uggla to Atlanta partly because extension talks with the second baseman stalled, but the Braves are now making progress on a possible extension, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter link). Uggla, who turned down a four-year, $48MM offer from the Marlins this fall, will likely earn about $10MM in 2011.
The A's are exploring a possible multiyear deal with Trevor Cahill, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). The 22-year-old is under team control through 2014. It wouldn't be the first time GM Billy Beane has locked up a young starter, as Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Rich Harden, Dan Haren and Brett Anderson will attest.
Pujols Seeking A-Rod Money?
Yesterday we learned that the Cardinals' brass planned to sit down with Albert Pujols' agent Dan Lozano and discuss an extension to keep the game's best player in St. Louis.
Today, SI's Jon Heyman tweets that the Cardinal slugger is thought to be looking for the type of contract that Alex Rodriguez received to stay in New York. A-Rod inked a 10-year, $275MM contract back in December of 2007 at the age of 32, so it would be no surprise to see Pujols, 31 in January, making similar demands.
Pujols boasts a career line of .331/.426/.624 with 408 home runs and three NL MVP awards to his name. He finished second in this year's voting to Joey Votto, his fourth runner-up finish.
Regular Season Award Winners Cashing In
Players take a lot of pride in individual awards. While most will say that team success outweighs winning a Cy Young, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, or MVP, there's no question that these achievements still serve as highlights in any player's career. There's more to it than just that, though. Many players have clauses in their contracts which award them extra cash for taking home these individual marks of excellence. As we're in the midst of award season currently, let's take a look at who's cashed in so far:
- Mark Buehrle: The Chicago lefty took home his second Gold Glove and was rewarded with an extra $25K on top of his $14MM salary.
- Joe Mauer: Minnesota's catcher earned his third Gold Glove and his fourth All Star nod, each netting him another $25K on top of his $12.5MM salary.
- Evan Longoria: Longo grabbed his second Gold Glove and his third All Star appearance, bringing in $25K and $50K, respectively, for an additional $75K on top of his ridiculously affordable $950K salary.
- Franklin Gutierrez: Seattle's standout center fielder finally took home a Gold Glove after missing out last season despite a terrific performance, and he'll bring home $50K to go along with his $2MM salary.
- Yadier Molina: Both Molina's second straight All Star selection and third straight Gold Glove will earn him $50K, for a total of $100K, pushing his 2010 earnings to $4.35MM.
- Albert Pujols: The NL's best player took home $25K for his All Star selection, $50K for his second Gold Glove, and $50K for his sixth Silver Slugger. Depending on where he finishes in the MVP voting, he'll take home $50K (third), $100K (second), or $200K (first).
- Brandon Phillips: His second Gold Glove earned him a whopping $250K, as it caused his 2011 salary to increase from $11MM to $11.25MM.
- Scott Rolen: Gold Gloves are nothing new for Rolen. He earned his eighth this season, and took home an additional $50K as a result. He also earned $25K for his sixth career All Star selection, for a total of $75K on top of his $6.5MM payday.
- Troy Tulowitzki: It was a big year for Tulo, who earned his first All Star selection ($25K), Gold Glove ($25K), and Silver Slugger ($50K) to go along with his $3.5MM salary.
- Michael Bourn: Bourn's second Gold Glove was good for $25K on top of his $2.4MM salary.
- Shane Victorino: The Flyin' Hawaiian's third consecutive Gold Glove gave him a $50K bonus on top of his $5MM salary.
- Matt Holliday: His fifth NL Silver Slugger brought in $50K, as did his All Star Selection, netting him $100K in addition to the $17MM he had already earned.
- Felix Hernandez: King Felix's 2010 Cy Young earned him a cool million dollars, as his 2011 salary will now increase from $10MM to $11MM.
- David Price: The sensational lefty's second-place Cy Young finish earned him $80K on top of his $1MM salary.
- Jered Weaver: The AL strikeout king's fifth place finish in the Cy Young voting earned him $50K.
- Adam Wainwright: A second place finish in the 2010 Cy Young voting earned Wainwright an additional $100K on top of his meager $4.65MM salary.
- Ubaldo Jimenez: His third-place finish in the Cy Young voting added $50K to his dirt cheap $1.25MM salary.
Obviously, this isn't a complete list, as not all players' award clauses are available to the public. Still, that's a total of over $2MM in award bonuses, with the MVPs still to come this week.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
Heyman On Weeks, Matsui, Pujols
SI's Jon Heyman is gathering all kinds of information at the GM Meetings; here's the latest…
- Brewers GM Doug Melvin will talk to second baseman Rickie Weeks today about a possible extension, tweets Heyman. The arbitration eligible Weeks is one year away from free agency.
- Heyman tweets that the White Sox are talking to free agent designated hitter Hideki Matsui, who would fit as one of two lefty bats they hope to acquire. The Sox have already had preliminary discussions with Adam Dunn's agent. Heyman says the Cubs have not appeared to be big suitors for Dunn so far.
- Regarding Albert Pujols, Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt does not want to repeat Alex Rodriguez's ten-year, $275MM contract. In fact, he believes the Yankees would retract A-Rod's deal if they could. Heyman floated an eight-year, $240MM deal to DeWitt, who questioned the $30MM salary.
- Expensive closers Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Cordero are on the trade market, with the Red Sox and Reds willing to kick in money. Still, Heyman sees the Red Sox retaining Papelbon, whose trade market is weak.
- Heyman could see something around three years and $57MM for Derek Jeter.
- Heyman believes the Orioles are looking at Paul Konerko and/or Adrian Beltre for their corner infield openings.
Cardinals Rumors: Pujols, Uribe, Tejada
Cardinals GM John Mozeliak would like to begin talks on an Albert Pujols extension "between now and the Christmas holiday," he told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Strauss has a source who believes Pujols "is unlikely to revisit the matter once the 2011 season opens." At the least, Pujols figures to sign the third-largest contract in baseball history whether this winter or as a free agent after the '11 season.
Regarding infield upgrades, Mozeliak told Strauss Sunday that "we probably have more of an emphasis on short than second at this point." They'd also like a utility infielder to back up David Freese at third base. Unless Dan Uggla fits into the picture somewhere, free agents Juan Uribe and Miguel Tejada are on the Cardinals' radar according to Strauss. Though they also have an eye on recently-posted infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Mozeliak "indicated the timing may not be right for the club to make such a heavy commitment for a Pacific Rim player."
It's becoming more and more clear the Cardinals won't be moving Colby Rasmus; today Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports quoted a source who sees a 99% chance of the center fielder staying put. Indeed, Mozeliak told Strauss Sunday that Rasmus is "almost impossible to replace."
One note you may have missed from yesterday: the team is growing more optimistic about signing Jake Westbrook, according to Rosenthal.