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Bartolo Colon

Olney On Price, Relievers, Colon, Salaries, Red Sox

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David Price's trade value may never be higher than it is right now, ESPN's Buster Olney argues, so the Rays may have to quell their competitive instincts and deal the ace southpaw even if they "aren't completely sold" on offers they receive before the year is out.  Olney covers several other topics in his Insider-only piece, such as how quality relievers such as Joe Smith or J.P. Howell could command three-year contracts worth $12MM-$18MM this winter.  Here's more from Olney…

  • Despite Bartolo Colon's good numbers in 2013, Olney says (in a video blog) that there isn't a strong market for his services since executives simply don't know what to expect from the soft-tossing 40-year-old.  Olney thinks Colon will find a one-year, $10MM-$12MM deal for 2014, similar to what MLBTR's Steve Adams predicts.  Despite the mutual interest between Colon and the Athletics, however, Olney predicts Colon will sign with a big-market team.  
  • Some agents believe there will be "a notable spike in salaries this winter," Olney tweets.
  • In an appearance on WEEI Radio's Mut & Merloni Show on Wednesday (WEEI.com's Jackson Alexander has a partial transcript), Olney said that if the Red Sox make Brian McCann a competitive offer, McCann would consider taking slightly less money since he's a good fit in their clubhouse atmosphere.
  • Also from the radio interview, Olney thinks "the smart play" for Stephen Drew would be to accept Boston's $14.1MM qualifying offer.  I'm not sure I agree with Olney, as while Drew couldn't find a $14.1MM average annual salary on the open market, he'd surely find a multiyear contract.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes thinks Drew can find a four-year, $48MM deal this winter.
  • Olney also thinks the Mariners will try "to change the conversation" about their franchise by making a major offer to Jacoby Ellsbury.

Free Agent Profile: Bartolo Colon

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A stem cell injection into Bartolo Colon's right shoulder helped to reinvigorate his career with the Yankees in 2011, but the merits of that procedure were called into question a bit by a 50-game suspension for elevated testosterone levels last August. Colon will turn 41 next May, but he still feels that he can pitch another three years, and his 2013 results suggest that it's certainly possible.

Strengths/Pros

Colon's ERA has dropped in each season since his 2011 comeback, and while critics will instantly leap to make PED allegations, he didn't have a positive test in 2013 — a season in which he was better than he was in 2012 when he failed a drug test.Colon-Bartolo

Colon's strikeouts and 93 mph heater seem to be a thing of the past (though he saw a notable uptick toward season's end), but he now boasts some of the best command among all Major League starters. Only Cliff Lee, David Price and Adam Wainwright averaged fewer walks per nine innings this season, and no free agent starter was able to match his precision. In fact, over the past two seasons — a span in which he's thrown 342 2/3 innings — Lee is the only starter in all of baseball with a lower BB/9 rate than Colon.

A great deal of Colon's success comes from the fact that he pounds the strike zone to get ahead in the count. Ervin Santana, Dan Haren and Bronson Arroyo are the only free agents that threw a first-pitch strike more often than Colon this season. As such, he's able to keep his pitch count down and work deep into games; he's averaged more than 6 1/3 innings per start since Opening Day 2012.

Many will assume that the spacious O.Co Coliseum is the reason for his success, but Colon's 2.95 road ERA since 2012 is actually better than his 3.03 ERA at home. Colon comes with quite a bit of postseason experience, having pitched to a 3.70 ERA over 58 1/3 innings in 10 career playoff starts.

Colon didn't receive a qualifying offer from the A's, so adding his veteran presence and postseason experience to a team won't cost a draft pick.

Weaknesses/Cons

Colon's fastball averaged just 89.9 mph this season, and he's managed just 5.5 K/9 in his two years with the A's. Would he be so effective if his heater continued its current downward trajectory? Loss of velocity on his fastball would seem to be particularly damaging to Colon, as he throws roughly 85 percent fastballs. PITCHf/x tells us that 47 percent of those fastballs are two-seamers, so perhaps it's deliberate, as his four-seamer has remained constant at 91.2 mph.

Colon's conditioning will likely be called into question. He's listed at 5'11" and 265 pounds, which will certainly be a red flag for some teams. Whether or not the two are related, Colon has had a 15-day DL stint in each of the past two seasons, and he hasn't topped 200 innings since 2005.

Colon's ERA has been outstanding, but it's also been propped up by a 7.4% HR/FB ratio over the past two seasons. His xFIP — FIP adjusted with a league-average HR/FB — over that same time is a more pedestrian 4.04. Colon's career 10.2% HR/FB is roughly league average, so it's fair to wonder if he can continue limiting homers at such a high rate.

Personal

Colon comes with a bit of baggage in the form of his PED suspension, but that hasn't changed how he's viewed by teammates, managers and front office officials. Colon is very well-regarded and well-liked in clubhouses, as evidenced by the fact that Oakland welcomed him back with open arms following last year's suspension.

Colon is married with three sons and is active in the community. He's made contributions to the American Red Cross to benefit the victims of Hurricane Katrina and also has funded the construction of baseball fields in his hometown of Altamira in the Dominican Republic, per the A's media guide. Baseball runs in his family, as his brother, Jose, pitched in the Indians system but didn't reach the Majors.

Market

There's mutual interest between the A's and Colon in a reunion for the 2014 season, and he's recently gone on record as stating that he feels he can pitch as many as three more years at the big league level. If he's open to another one-year deal, Colon and agent Adam Katz of the Wasserman Media Group will have no shortage of teams calling up this winter.

Most players coming off brilliant seasons in the late stages of their careers prefer to sign with a contender, and there's no reason to expect anything different from Colon. In addition to the A's, the Pirates, Nationals, Yankees, Orioles, Indians and Royals could all show interest.

Expected Contract

Colon may think he can pitch for three more seasons, but at this point it seems that he'd be hard-pressed to find a team willing to guarantee him multiple years. Multiyear deals for starters on the wrong side of 40 are of the utmost rarity. R.A. Dickey managed a multiyear pact that guaranteed him $12MM in his age-40 season with an identical option for his age-41 campaign, but he did so as a knuckleballer coming off an improbable Cy Young Award, so he doesn't compare that well to Colon.

The previous contract negotiated by Katz contained a $3MM base salary plus $200K for 10, 15, 17, 20, 22 and 25 starts as well as $200K for 140, 150, 160, 170, 180 and 190 innings. Colon hit each of those levels in 2013, totaling a $5.4MM salary.

Coming off a brilliant season without the doubt of a suspension tied to his name, Colon figures to receive a significantly larger salary. He should be compensated more handsomely than reclamation projects like Phil Hughes and Josh Johnson, even if each is significantly younger. My expectation is that Colon can find a one-year, $10MM contract with incentives that can push the total value into the $12MM range.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A’s Won’t Extend Any Qualifying Offers

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The Athletics have announced that they will not extend qualifying offers to free agents Bartolo Colon and Grant Balfour. Neither player will require a new team to sacrifice a draft pick this winter. The move isn't surprising, given the $14.1MM value of a qualifying offer.

Colon would've been more likely to earn a qualifying offer than Balfour. The 40-year-old enjoyed a dominant season in which he pitched to a 2.65 ERA with 5.5 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 190 1/3 innings for the A's. Colon earned a $3MM base salary and totaled another $2.4MM via incentives for games started and innings pitched, so the $14.1MM value would've been a substantial increase over his 2013 salary. Still, he projects to earn a healthy increase from that $5.4MM total on the open market. Colon and the A's have expressed mutual interest, and Colon feels that he can pitch for another three seasons.

Balfour, 36 in December, saved 38 games for the A's in 2013 en route to a sparkling 2.59 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9, earning his first All-Star berth in the process. I pegged his open-market value at $18MM over two years in my free agent profile of Balfour, though that should come with the caveat that there are more closers than jobs availble this winter. If he's left standing in January, Balfour won't be able to land that type of cash, so it would behoove him and agent Keith Miller of ACES to find a deal early on in the free agent process.

AL West Notes: Astros, Colon, Farquhar

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United States Bankruptcy Judge Marvin Isgur is considering an order to allow the Astros (and the Houston Rockets) to negotiate with other parties to see if another business model with a new partner could make a Houston sports network profitable, according to David Barron of the Houston Chronicle. Those partners include FOX Sports, and Astros owner Jim Crane disclosed in the ongoing bankruptcy proceedings for CSN Houston that he spoke with FOX executives earlier in the year about returning to FOX Sports Southwest. Crane has previously expressed concern about CSN Houston's impact on his team's ability to compete within the division. Here's more out of the AL West…

  • There's mutual interest between the Athletics and Bartolo Colon, agent Adam Katz told Joe Stiglich of CSN California. Colon "loved his time" with the A's and would be open should they wish to make an offer, Stiglich elaborates (Twitter links). Colon recently told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he thinks he can pitch three more seasons.
  • Speaking of Slusser, her latest column has a host of info on the decisions facing the A's early in the offseason. A qualifying offer seems too steep a price for Oakland to offer Colon, though she feels that he's likely to seek a deal similar to the one-year, $15MM contract Hiroki Kuroda signed this past offseason. Echoing earlier reports, Slusser feels that Grant Balfour is likely to leave as a free agent.
  • MLB.com's Greg Johns looks at the unlikely path that right-hander Danny Farquhar took to become the Mariners closer. The 26-year-old went from the Blue Jays to the A's to the Yankees to the Mariners in a span of 12 months and entered 2013 as an afterthought before finishing the regular season with one of the most dominant stretches of any AL reliever this year.

Athletics Notes: Colon, Balfour, Crisp, Anderson

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Earlier today, Bartolo Colon told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he'd like to return to the A's next season and feels that he could pitch another three years in the Majors. At the time, it wasn't known if the A's were interested in a reunion, but in their postseason address to the media, both manager Bob Melvin and GM Billy Beane said they are interested in bringing Colon back for a third season (via Slusser and John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group on Twitter). Beane went so far as to say it'd be "foolish" for the team not to be interested. Here's more from on the A's…

  • Closer Grant Balfour isn't satisfied with only making the playoffs, he told reporters, including MLB.com's Jane Lee. Balfour said he intends to keep playing until he can win a World Series (Twitter link).
  • Balfour also acknowledged to CSNBayArea.com's Casey Pratt that he wanted to make sure the inning he pitched in Game 5 last night was a good one, because he knew it may have been his last frame with the team (also on Twitter).
  • Melvin said today that the A's are well-equipped to handle the potential loss of Balfour, as internal options Ryan Cook and Sean Doolittle could take over as closer (via CSN California's Joe Stiglich on Twitter). As Stiglich goes on to caution, that comment doesn't mean Doolittle or Cook will close in 2014. The A's would likely explore the free agent relief market in that scenario for an additional arm to plug into the mix.
  • Beane said that the A's will exercise Coco Crisp's $7.5MM option following the season and implied that they will do the same with Brett Anderson's $8MM option (via Slusser).
  • Crisp said that he'd like to think the A's would want to discuss retaining him beyond the 2014 season (via Hickey).
  • Top prospect Addison Russell will open 2014 at Double-A "at the lowest," according to Beane, who then added that "anything can happen" once a player reaches Double-A (Stiglich reporting).
  • Beane feels that if Chris Young, whose contract contains an $11MM club option, doesn't return to the team, Michael Choice can serve as a right-handed outfielder for the team (Lee reporting). It seems logical that the A's would decline the option after Young batted just .200/.280/.379 this season.

Colon Hopes To Return To A’s, Thinks He Can Pitch Three More Years

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Since reviving his career with the Yankees in 2011, Bartolo Colon has only gotten better, and the right-hander tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he feels he can pitch for another three seasons. Colon added that if the A's are interested, he would like to return to Oakland for a third season (Twitter links).

Despite pitching most of the season at age 40, Colon enjoyed his finest season since 2005 with the Angels. Colon totaled 190 1/3 innings of 2.65 ERA ball, averaging 5.5 strikeouts and 1.4 walks per nine innings pitched with a 41.5 percent ground-ball rate. Colon's success is particularly intriguing given the fact that 85 percent of his pitches were either two-seam or four-seam fastballs.

Colon was mostly an afterthought from 2006-10 as he battled a host of shoulder and elbow injuries, but he underwent a stem cell treatment in the Dominican Republic in which doctors took fatty tissue and bone marrow from his hip and injected it into his ailing rotator cuff. Since then he's also been linked to PEDs, though he served a 50-game suspension last season, making it hard to imagine that he was using again in his superior 2013 campaign.

Colon earned just a $3MM base salary this year, though his contract reportedly contained incentives that could allow him to reach $5MM. Another one-year deal seems plausible as he enters his age-41 season, though his successful 2013 has likely earned him a raise. The A's are rich in young rotation options with the likes of Jarrod Parker, Sonny Gray, A.J. Griffin, Tommy Milone, Brett Anderson and Dan Straily, so it's unclear at this time whether retaining Colon's veteran presence will be of interest to general manager Billy Beane.

Quick Hits: GMs, Comp Picks, 2013 Free Agents

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On this day in 2007, Terry Ryan announced that he would step aside from his post as the Twins general manager at the end of the season. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted, Ryan's history was checkered at best at the time. Of course, as a read through this site's most recent post would indicate, Ryan is now back at the helm. Though the team has yet to post more than seventy wins in a season since Ryan returned in November of 2011, Minnesota stands at 15th in ESPN's latest future power rankings on the strength of its minor league system. While Ryan has long been said to have his job as long as he wants to keep it, some other GMs may not be so lucky …

  • There are four general managers around the league who could soon be replaced, writes Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. According to Gammons, two of those — Jerry Dipoto of the Angels and Larry Beinfest of the Marlins – have arguably been undone by meddling owners. (Gammons cites Arte Moreno's $365MM investment in Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and Jeffrey Loria's propensity for "whimsically run[ning] everything.") Meanwhile, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik may not survive to see whether the team's top young pitching talent can drive a winner. And Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd — the game's fourth-longest tenured GM — has yet to figure out how to craft a squad that can win away from Coors field. (For what it's worth, O'Dowd was in charge for the franchise's lone season with a winning road record, when it posted a 41-40 mark in 2009.)
  • It would be ridiculous to consider Rangers GM Jon Daniels among those at risk, writes Baseball Nation's Grant Brisbee. While he surely could have sacrificed future value to win at all costs this season, says Brisbee, Daniels was prudent not to and still delivered a team that should qualify for the post-season.
  • Teams must determine whether to make outgoing free agents a qualifying offer just five days after the conclusion of this year's World Series, and those decisions will play a major role in setting the stage for the 2014 free agent market. For non-obvious candidates, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, an important part of the equation lies in valuing the compensation pick that the team would receive if the player declines the offer and then signs with another club. Working off of a rough valuation of international signing slot dollars, Cameron opines that teams could value the dollars spent on a comp pick as much as three-to-four times higher than money the team could spend outside the draft. As he explains, this would imply that there is substantial excess value in obtaining non-marketable draft picks, which could move the needle in favor of making qualifying offers in marginal situations.
  • As we prepare to weigh a new class of free agents, CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman ranks the best signings of 2013. His top three are a collection of veterans whose contributions have vastly outweighed the relatively meager financial commitments that they received: Pirates starter Francisco Liriano, Red Sox reliever Koji Uehara, and Athletics starter Bartolo Colon. Next on his list is Boston's David Ortiz, who as Heyman notes was the only player to accept a qualifying offer in the first year of the system.

A-Rod, 12 Others To Be Suspended Monday

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Alex Rodriguez and 12 other players will be suspended for their involvement with Biogenesis, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Earlier today, we learned Rodriguez is to be suspended through the 2014 season and Heyman names Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta, Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz, Mariners catcher Jesus Montero, Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera, and Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli among the Major League players also expected to be suspended, as well as minor leaguers Fernando Martinez, Jordan Norberto, Fautino de los Santos, and Cesar Puello. Heyman adds there are also three players on the suspension list whose names have yet to become public.

Heyman writes Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera, A's right-hander Bartolo Colon, and Padres catcher Yasmani Grandal will not be suspended in connection with Biogenesis, as they have served 50-game penalties already. 

All or almost all of the other 12 players are expected to accept 50-game suspensions, though there could be an additional holdout or two for appeal beyond Rodriguez, reports Heyman. All the players have the option to appeal, but it is believed close to all of them have made agreements for 50-game bans with MLB, Heyman adds. Players who appeal are eligible to keep playing until their case is heard.

Cruz told reporters, including MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, "I haven't decided what I'm going to do about anything. It's not just about myself, it's also about the team." Today is the 112th game played by the Rangers, so Cruz would be eligible to return for the playoffs (assuming Texas reaches the post-season), if he serves a 50-game suspension beginning Monday. Sullivan surmises the Rangers will recall an outfielder from the minors adding Manny Ramirez is not an option and manager Ron Washington is reluctant to use Jurickson Profar in the outfield. Regardless of what the Rangers end up doing, assistant GM Thad Levine acknowledges, "At this stage of the season, that's a difficult bat to replace."

MLB Preparing 50-Game Suspensions In Biogenesis Case

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12:33am: Cruz has not decided whether he will serve his suspension or appeal it, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (on Twitter).

7:17pm: Major League Baseball is preparing 50-game suspensions for Biogenesis-linked players who have not been disciplined in the past, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Players such as Nelson Cruz, Jhonny Peralta, Everth Cabrera, Jesus Montero and Francisco Cervelli are among those facing these 50-game suspensions, as are minor leaguers Fernando Martinez, Cesar Puello and Fautino de los Santos. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes that the vast majority of players connected to these 50-game suspensions — including playoff contenders Cruz and Peralta — are believed to be willing to accept the punishment rather than file appeals. Doing so will allow suspended players to play toward the end of September and into the playoffs, though their teams would be at a significant disadvantage down the stretch

Passan also tweets that MLB has threatened to double the penalty for players who do not cooperate with the suspensions, making cooperation a much more appealing option. Additionally, he adds that players who lied during the investigation could receive an additional 15 games on their suspensions, similar to Ryan Braun's case (Twitter link).

Bartolo Colon, Melky Cabrera and Yasmani Grandal are not likely to receive additional suspensions, having already served 50-game bans, according to Heyman. Both Heyman and Passan agree that Alex Rodriguez remains firm in his refusal to cooperate with a deal, as was reported earlier today. MLB would like Rodriguez to serve a suspension through the 2014 season but could pursue a lifetime ban if he does not cooperate.

Biogenesis Announcement Not Expected Today

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Yesterday, Joel Sherman and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reported "the strong indications are Major League Baseball will announce all the suspensions in the Biogenesis case this week."  No announcement from MLB is expected today, tweets Steven Marcus of Newsday.  Wednesday's trade deadline is "no factor when it comes to the timing of announcements related to the case," hears Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  We could be in for a wild week.  The latest on Biogenesis:

Alex Rodriguez

  • MLB is willing to offer Rodriguez a suspension of the rest of this year and all of 2014, report Bill Madden, Teri Thompson, and Michael O'Keefe of the New York Daily News, and if he declines, MLB is expected to attempt to ban him for life.  Over at River Ave. Blues, Mike Axisa runs through different scenarios involving A-Rod.
  • The Yankees have continued to search for third base help, but Heyman says that isn't necessarily tied to the possibility A-Rod gets suspended.  Though first-time offenders are permitted to play during an appeals process, baseball might challenge that practice in the case of Rodriguez, writes Rosenthal.

Jhonny Peralta

  • The Tigers have shown no indication they are looking for a shortstop replacement, writes Heyman.  "I would think Detroit would want a shortstop, but we'll see," an NL GM told Heyman.  Neither Peralta nor Nelson Cruz has indicated to his team a plan in case of a suspension, writes Yahoo's Jeff Passan.  It's possible those two will be faced with choosing their current team (appealing a suspension into next year) or choosing to preserve their free agent value (serving a 50-game suspension now).  I imagine taking what might be perceived as the selfish route, serving the suspension now, could hurt free agent stock in its own right.  

Nelson Cruz

  • As you might expect, the Rangers prefer a prolonged appeals process for Cruz, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today.  Nightengale wonders, "If Cruz goes down without a fight and accepts his penalty, why would they want a guy back who quit on the organization?"  That question would apply to Cruz potentially returning for the playoffs, as well as signing a new deal with the Rangers in the offseason.  Cruz might have to settle for a less lucrative two-year free agent deal similar to that of Melky Cabrera, one GM estimated to Heyman. 

Bartolo Colon

  • Since Colon already completed a 50-game suspension for PED use, A's people are expressing confidence he won't get another suspension, writes Heyman, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also hears the same.  The team's pursuit of Jake Peavy is unrelated.

General

  • "If drug dealers can use the currency of player evidence as a means to gain immunity and even more money, then our system of policing and protecting baseball has incentivized the people and the very behavior that was the genesis of the problem," agent Scott Boras tells Rosenthal.  Baseball cut a deal with Biogenesis owner Anthony Bosch that provides many protections.
  • In dealing with Jason Giambi, the Yankees concluded they cannot void a contract based on PED use, writes ESPN's Buster Olney.  Some lawyers, however, wonder if a team could file a lawsuit against a player alleging damage to their brand.
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