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Bronson Arroyo

Cafardo On Greinke, Arroyo, Hall, Rays, Ortiz

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In today's column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo examines the possibility of a Zack Greinke trade, noting that the Red Sox should at least inquire, given Allard Baird's history with the Royals and Greinke. Here are some of Cafardo's other notes:

  • One AL GM on Greinke vs. Cliff Lee: "There may not be anyone better than Lee right now, but how long is that going to last? …. If you’re looking to build around someone, you would roll the dice with Greinke and hope that what he showed this season is an off year and not a sign of things to come. You’d have to do due diligence, but the upside with Greinke is pretty good."
  • The Reds are attempting to work out an extension with Bronson Arroyo that would keep him in Cincinnati for a few years and slightly reduce his 2011 salary ($13MM). That way, the team could have some flexibility to add free agents this winter, and would lock up one of its best arms to a long-term contract.
  • Bill Hall will look to find a full-time job at one position this offseason, but "people around Hall" are suggesting the all-purpose utility role he played in Boston might be better suited for him.
  • The Rays are expected to field trade offers for B.J. Upton, Jason Bartlett, and maybe James Shields.
  • David Ortiz and the Red Sox have had some contract discussions, but there's no resolution yet on either an extension or Ortiz's 2011 option. Boston will have until three days after the World Series ends to decide on the $12.5MM option, last month, we heard the Sox were prepared to exercise it.

Reds Will Exercise Arroyo’s Option

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The Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay tweets that Reds' GM Walt Jocketty has said he will "definitely" pick up Bronson Arroyo's $11MM option for 2011. Jocketty says they'll try to add years to the contract as well. If that fails, Arroyo is essentially on a one-year, $9MM deal, as the Reds would've had to pay a $2MM buy out on the option anyway.

Arroyo, 34 in February, was traded to the Reds from Boston along with $1.5MM in exchange for Wily Mo Pena back in 2006. The trade came as a surprise move, as Arroyo had just signed an extension with the Red Sox two months prior. In February of 2007, he signed a two-year $25MM extension with the Reds that includes this $11MM option.

Arroyo has been a workhorse for the Reds over the course of his Cincinnati tenure, throwing 200 innings or more in every season, and compiling a 3.97 ERA over that time with 6.2 K/9 and a solid 2.6 BB/9. While his strikeouts are down over the past two seasons, his control has improved and he's become more difficult to hit. Arroyo allowed a career-best 7.8 hits per nine innings in 2010 (though that was likely aided by a .246 BABIP — well below his career .290 mark), helping the Reds to the NL Central Division Championship.

The Reds will have their hands full in trying to extend Arroyo, as he's made it clear this season that he won't accept a discount to stay with the Reds. Back in July, Arroyo told Fay that he wouldn't consider restructuring his contract at a discount like teammate Scott Rolen did. Arroyo said that got burned when he took a discount to stay in Boston and was traded months later, and that he had to look out for his own best interest this time around.

One thing the Reds will have in their favor is that Arroyo has said that he would prefer to remain with the Reds for at least three more years. He cited liking the city and the team's young talent as reasons.

Arroyo Believes Reds Will Pick Up 2011 Option

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After the season, the Reds will face a decision on Bronson Arroyo that will essentially be worth at least $9MM. Arroyo's $11MM option could increase to $13MM based on innings pitched, but the right-hander tells Hal McCoy of the Daily Dayton News that he thinks the team will exercise the option rather than pay the $2MM buyout.

"They have to pick up my option, no matter what, even if they planned to trade me,” Arroyo said. “They have to pick it up. If they let me walk for free ($2 million), they’d be giving me a huge lottery ticket."

Arroyo hints that while he wouldn't expect to earn Derek Lowe money ($15MM annually) if he becomes a free agent, his numbers (215.2 IP, 3.88 ERA) are probably good enough that teams would be willing to match or exceed the price Cincinnati would have to pay to keep him. When MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at the possibility of Arroyo reaching free agency, he agreed, suggesting the 33-year-old could earn a contract worth $20MM over two years. Still, Arroyo doesn't sound like he expects to hit the open market, indicating that he'd prefer to remain in Cincinnati anyway.

"I’d like to be here for a few more years," said Arroyo. "We have a young club with the opportunity for success down the road and I’m comfortable in my surroundings and I enjoy the city. I’d like to be here for at least three more, but it all depends on what they want."

Odds & Ends: Hudson, Mets, Arroyo, Atkins

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As major league teams unveil their 2011 schedules, here are some news items….

  • As Daniel Hudson improves to 6-1 with a 1.67 ERA as a Diamondback tonight, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets that Hudson "probably" could have been a Brewer had Milwaukee accepted a one-for-one offer from Chicago for Prince Fielder.  The problem at the time was that the Brewers projected Hudson as only a third or fourth starter and wanted more for their slugger.  Obviously hindsight is 20/20 on any missed trade, but if Hudson continues to pitch well in Arizona, it will put even more pressure on the Brewers to get a big return back if they do end up dealing Fielder.
  • An anonymous NL official tells Newsday's Ken Davidoff that Jose Reyes could command "one really good prospect, one solid prospect, and one or two medium-range prospects" in a trade should the Mets put their shortstop on the market this winter.  This source seems in favor of a total rebuild for the Mets; he also thinks they should try to deal David Wright and Francisco Rodriguez.
  • Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News cites Bronson Arroyo's durability, consistent win totals and veteran presence as reasons why Cincinnati should pick up the right-hander's $11MM option for next season.
  • We've heard that the Rockies will look for a right-handed first baseman to platoon with Todd Helton next season, and ESPN.com's Jason A. Churchill cites former Rockie Garrett Atkins as a possibility for the role.  Atkins was non-tendered by Colorado last winter and after signing a one-year contract with Baltimore, was released by the Orioles last July.
  • Interim Arizona GM Jerry Dipoto will interview for the full-time position tomorrow, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert (Twitter link).
  • Any Boston fans tickled by A.J. Burnett's struggles this season might not want to crow too much, since Fangraphs' Joe Pawlikowski cites Burnett as comparable to the also-struggling John Lackey.
  • Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wonders if the Red Sox might pursue Jim Thome as a cheaper free agent DH option rather than pick up David Ortiz's 2011 option.
  • Travis Buck's "organizational status is clearly at an all-time low" in Oakland, writes Mychael Urban of CSNBayArea.com.  Buck is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and could be non-tendered given the number of other promising outfielders in the Athletics' system.
  • If Jesus Montero can develop a solid catching glove to go along with his powerful bat, the Mariners may regret passing on New York's Montero-centered offer for Cliff Lee, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
  • Blogger El Lefty Malo praises the Giants' acquisition of Cody Ross and some other recent Brian Sabean moves.
  • Angels manager Mike Scioscia thinks the Halos just need a "tweaking" rather than an overhaul in the winter, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says upgrading the infield should be a top priority for the Cardinals in the offseason.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Bronson Arroyo

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If the Reds don't pick up Bronson Arroyo's option for 2011, he'll be in high demand. Only three pitchers have logged more innings than Arroyo over the course of the past five seasons and the 33-year-old has posted a 3.97 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over that span. Arroyo's 2010 season has been strong, as usual. He has a 3.84 ERA with 4.7 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 for the NL Central leaders this year.

Arroyo hasn't started fewer than 28 games in a season since joining Boston's rotation in 2004. That kind of consistency has value on the open market, even if Arroyo doesn't have overpowering stuff. The Mariners, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Indians, Rockies, Brewers, Nationals and Diamondbacks are some of the teams that could have interest in adding an innings eater this winter. There are other options of course – Kevin Millwood, Ted Lilly, Javier Vazquez and Dave Bush will be available – but Arroyo would have no trouble finding a job if the Reds decline his option.

It would cost Cincinnati $2MM to decline Arroyo's option and either $11MM or $13MM to pick it up (the cost depends on how many innings the right-hander pitches). The Reds have many pitchers to consider for their 2011 rotation, but none of them are as predictable as Arroyo. It would not be surprising at all to see the Reds pick up Arroyo's option.

If GM Walt Jocketty decides to turn down the option, the Reds will have to decide whether to offer arbitration to Arroyo, who currently projects as a Type A free agent. They could obtain compensatory picks if Arroyo declined an offer of arbitration to sign elsewhere, but he could always accept their offer.

Jason Marquis, another durable early thirties right-hander, signed a two-year deal worth $15MM last offseason despite similarly low strikeout rates. If Arroyo hits the open market this winter, it would not be surprising to see him sign a two-year deal worth $20MM or so.

Brewers Will Prioritize Pitching In Offseason

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The Brewers' number one goal this winter will be upgrading their pitching staff, Mark Attanasio told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Specifically, the team hopes to improve their starting rotation, according to the Brewers' owner.

"We know we've got a problem, which is starting pitching," said Attanasio. "We, as an organization, need to face that reality and address it, as opposed to shrink from it or excuse it."

Attanasio goes on to say the free agent market isn't "the perfect answer," and that the team may have to look into trading a position player for pitching. Haudricourt interprets Attanasio's comments to mean the Brewers will explore the possibility of moving Prince Fielder for an impact arm. 2011 is the slugger's final arbitration-eligible season, and GM Doug Melvin has said in the past that he prefers to trade position players in the offseason, when there are more potential suitors.

If the Brewers don't receive any offers they like for Fielder, turning to the free agent market should still be an option. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe estimates that Milwaukee may clear as much as $47MM off the books this winter, which could make them "huge players" in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. Cafardo adds that the club also "should be in on Bronson Arroyo," who has an $11MM club option for 2011.

Earlier this month, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith examined the Brewers' 2011 rotation, touching upon potential trade and free agent options.

Odds & Ends: Heilman, Overbay, Delgado, Reds

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As Nationals fans cross their fingers about Stephen Strasburg, here's some news from around the majors…

  • Aaron Heilman is looking forward to his first taste of free agency, reports MLB.com's Andrew Pentis.  Heilman said that he and his agent hadn't had any talks yet with the Diamondbacks about a new contract.
  • Lyle Overbay thinks he has a chance of returning to the Blue Jays next season, writes Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.  Given the Overbay trade rumors we've been hearing all year, this would certainly be a surprise, especially since the Jays have given Adam Lind a few starts at first recently.
  • Carlos Delgado has been placed on the seven-day disabled list by the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox, reports Sportsnet New York's Ben Wagner (via Twitter).  Delgado is experiencing soreness in his back and left hip, not his twice-operated on right hip.  The slugger signed a minor league contract with Boston on August 7.
  • Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News thinks the Reds should "make signing Bronson Arroyo a priority," implies that 2010 is Ramon Hernandez's last year in Cincinnati and gives some other opinions in a fan mailbag.
  • Was Khalil Greene the biggest loss for the Rangers this season?  Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News thinks so, given the team's ongoing depth problems.
  • Ricky Nolasco's contract extension talks with the Marlins may be on hold.  Josh Friedman and Craig Mish of The Ticket 790AM radio report (via Twitter) that the Florida right-hander may miss the rest of the season with a partially-torn meniscus. 
  • Dontrelle Willis has been promoted to Triple-A Fresno, and Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News tweets that Willis is a candidate to join the Giants when the rosters expand on September 1.
  • LaTroy Hawkins will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder, reports MLB.com's Adam McCalvy.  It's unknown if the scope will reveal more severe damage, but Hawkins says he plans on pitching in 2011.  Since signing a two-year, $7.5MM contract with Milwaukee last December, the injury-plagued Hawkins has made just 18 appearances for the Brewers, posting an 8.44 ERA.

The Reds’ 2011 Rotation

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The Reds have an abundance of major league starters under team control in 2011. Mike Leake, Homer Bailey and Travis Wood are not yet arbitration-eligible and Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. All except Wood, a 2005 second-rounder, ranked among Baseball America's top 100 prospects before they became prominent major leaguers. That's an entire rotation's worth of former top prospects and they're all still cheap.

Of course it takes more than five starters to get through a season. The Rays, who relied on their own quintet for the first four months of the year, are finding that out now that Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann have sore shoulders. Tampa Bay has more pitching depth than most teams, so they can call on Jeremy Hellickson and Andy Sonnanstine. Like the 2010 Rays, next year's Reds should have rotation depth.

They will be able to stretch out Micah Owings or call on one of three minor leaguers. Aroldis Chapman, who is now pitching out of the bullpen, has the potential to be a frontline starter, according to Baseball America. The left-hander has a 3.90 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 at Triple A this year and has allowed less than one hit per inning pitched, though his command clearly needs work.

A pair of 26-year-old starters are pitching well at Triple A. Right-hander Sam LeCure has a 3.15 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 for Louisville and left-hander Matt Maloney has a 3.36 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Those two starters won't make more than the MLB minimum in 2011 and even Owings (headed to arbitration for the first time) and Chapman ($1MM salary) are affordable.

That kind of depth means Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo don't have obvious roles on next year's club. Both veterans have $2MM buyouts for expensive 2011 options, and at this point, it's extremely hard to imagine the Reds picking up both options. The Reds are probably not going to pay $23.75MM to bring Arroyo and Harang back when they have so many affordable and potentially effective arms around. 

It's easy to over-estimate pitching depth; injuries and unexpected performances can change plans. Arroyo, who has pitched well this year, would not re-structure his contract, but the Reds could decline his option and try to bring him back for less. The same goes for Harang, who has some value even though he has been hittable this year. 

Harang's $12.75MM option isn't worth picking up and Arroyo's $11MM option is no bargain, either. It would be a major surprise to see the Reds bring both pitchers back, but they could re-sign one for depth. For now, that's the last thing the Reds are concerned about. Both pitchers will be part of the club's late-season push for its first playoff berth in 15 years.

Arroyo Won’t Consider Restructuring Contract

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Bronson Arroyo will not consider redoing his contract even if it means staying with the Reds past this season, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Arroyo is in the final year of his two-year deal and has a club option for $11MM ($2MM buyout) next season. If the team hopes to keep the right-hander in Cincinnati next year, it looks as if they'll have to exercise that $11MM option.

As Arroyo told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the 33-year-old hopes to remain in Cincinnati, but is also looking ahead to what might be his last chance at a big deal on the open market. He indicated to Fay that he wouldn't restructure his contract and accept a discounted rate, like Scott Rolen did:

"Not in a million years," Arroyo said. "Scott's in a different position than I'm in. He's in a position where he feels like he's only got a couple years left in the game. He wanted to retire in this uniform…. He restructured because he’s made $150 million in the game or whatever it is…. I'm not in the same boat."

Fay suggests that it's unclear whether the Reds intend to exercise their 2011 option to retain Arroyo. If Arroyo is not in their future plans, the club might consider exploring his trade value before the deadline. The right-hander would be a "hot commodity" on the trade market, and with Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, and Homer Bailey on their way back from the disabled list, the Reds could have the pitching depth to make a move worthwhile.

The bet here though is that the Reds hold onto one of their most reliable arms. As long as they remain in first place, the team may be better off shelving the issue of Arroyo's option until after the season.

Cafardo’s Latest: Arroyo, Carmona, Garza, Lilly

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In this week's installment of his Baseball Notes feature, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the 2006 deal that sent Bronson Arroyo to Cincinnati for Wily Mo Pena. "I'm sure it's not one [trade] that Theo has on his mantle at home," Arroyo jokes, before going on to say that he'd love to stay with the Reds past this season. The team holds an $11MM 2011 option ($2MM buyout) for Arroyo. Here are Cafardo's other notes of interest:

  • The Brewers and the Rangers, before they acquired Cliff Lee, were among the teams "sniffing around" Fausto Carmona.
  • Cafardo wouldn't be shocked if the Rays were willing to discuss trading Matt Garza, with Jeremy Hellickson waiting in the wings (2.21 ERA in 105.2 Triple-A innings). In exchange for an impact bat, the Rays appear more inclined to deal major league players than prospects. A National League scout tells Cafardo that the team has been "very willing to include B.J. Upton in trade talks" and may even think about moving Wade Davis, if the price was right.
  • The Rays also have some interest in Ted Lilly, who could be a fit for the Twins and Tigers as well.
  • Cafardo thinks the Red Sox should pursue Evan Meek if the Pirates make him available.
  • Lou Piniella's agent Alan Nero says that the Cubs' skipper will definitely finish out the season, but isn't sure about Piniella's future past this year.
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