Reds Notes: Chapman, Harang, Arroyo, Owings
Mark Sheldon of MLB.com answered some Reds-related questions from fans in a mailbag today. Here are a few of the more intriguing items….
- With Aroldis Chapman looking like he might make the Cincinnati staff, a reader wondered how this quick entry into the majors might affect the six-year, $30.25MM deal Chapman signed in January. Sheldon says that if the young hurler is eligible for arbitration after 2012, then the final three years of his contract would be voided and part of his remaining salary is converted into a bonus. Sheldon notes that the Reds would still control Chapman for at least the full six years of the initial contract.
- Chapman is one of several young pitchers whose 2010 performance may dictate what the Reds do with the options of Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang, Sheldon writes. Cincinnati has $2MM buyouts on both Arroyo and Harang, but if the club chooses to bring one or both pitchers back, Arroyo will be owed at least $11MM and Harang will be owed at least $12.75MM. (Both options could be worth as much as $13MM based based on innings pitched.) If the youngsters step up, the Reds might be comfortable in letting both veterans go.
- Sheldon says Micah Owings' primary value is still as a pitcher, and his strong pinch-hitting is just a bonus. But Sheldon notes that since Mike Lincoln is out of options and on a guaranteed contract, he may squeeze Owings out of a bullpen spot.
Odds & Ends: Melky, Green, Branyan, Lowe
It's officially Winter Meetings time! New thread for links as the folks in Indianapolis begin to wake up and get going:
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets an interesting situation: the Cubs and Yankees both like Mike Cameron, while the Cubs like the Yanks' Melky Cabrera. The Cubs will need to clear payroll space before they can try for Cameron though. Also muddying the picture: both clubs may have interest in Curtis Granderson.
- ESPN's Buster Olney is hearing that the starting pitching market is "intensifying."
- Larry Stone of the Seattle Times has all kinds of amusing Winter Meetings memories from years past, and he explains why the Meetings were cancelled for five years in the nineties.
- David Lennon of Newsday says Mets COO Jeff Wilpon is not scheduled to come to Indianapolis this week, suggesting the team won't be signing major free agents at the Meetings.
- The Dodgers met with Nick Green's agent, tweets Yahoo's Tim Brown. Green, 31, hit .236/.303/.366 in 309 plate appearances for the Red Sox this year while playing all around the infield (mainly shortstop).
- The Mariners have begun preliminary negotiations with Russell Branyan, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Branyan already rejected an offer from the Mariners in November. The Mets appear to be among Branyan's other suitors.
- Jon Heyman reports, via Twitter, that Adrian Beltre is "not likely" to accept Seattle arbitration offer. They'll still likely try to retain him, however. It might be difficult to keep Branyan, Beltre, and Jose Lopez, with Ken Griffey Jr. already signed.
- In case you were wondering, Morosi tweets that nothing is cooking with the Braves and Diamondbacks for Derek Lowe. Nor are the D'Backs in on Bronson Arroyo.
- Dan Uggla doesn't like the uncertainty surrounding what uniform he'll be wearing in five months. The Marlins slugger says he still sees himself as a second baseman, though many teams would like to move the 30-home run machine to third base. Matt Lindstrom is in a similar spot.
- Andy MacPhail told Steve Melewski that free agents are beginning to look at Baltimore in a different light, thanks to the great reviews their farm system is getting in the national media. That said, Melewski still feels that if the O's add a big name this offseason, it'll be through a trade.
- Alex Speier takes a look at what pieces the Red Sox could potentially use as trade bait.
- Joel Sherman explains why Andy Pettitte is so important to the Yankees, why personal relationships matter among GMs, and the Mets struggles in finding a taker for Luis Castillo.
- Mark Feinsand gives Yankee fans five situations to watch this week, including Pettitte, Roy Halladay, Johnny Damon, the Tigers, and Hideki Matsui.
Reds Expect To Maintain Payroll
MLB.com's Mark Sheldon talked to Reds GM Walt Jocketty, who offered up a few hot stove nuggets.
- Jocketty said the Reds' 2010 payroll will be close to last year's ($73MM). The Reds are already around $72MM committed before arbitration raises to Jared Burton, Jonny Gomes, and Nick Masset.
- The Reds did not talk to Gomes' agents last week. It'd be a surprise to me to see him non-tendered after a .267/.338/.541 campaign.
- Asked if players would be moved to meet payroll, Jocketty replied, "I don't want to talk about that. I'm still working on it."
- The Reds would like to improve their offense and possibly add a fifth starter, but Jocketty does not want to trade young players.
- My take: Jocketty has a tall order ahead of him, improving the team despite a complete lack of payroll space. Committing $3MM to Ramon Hernandez was a questionable start. At this point Jocketty can only create flexibility by trading Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Francisco Cordero, or Arthur Rhodes. ESPN's Buster Olney heard from rival executives that the Reds prefer to trade Harang over Arroyo.
Odds & Ends: Towers, Randy Johnson, Arroyo
Links for Monday…
- Former GM Kevin Towers will attend the Winter Meetings and meet with three or four teams about possible employment, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Towers prefers the American League.
- Randy Johnson is undecided about pitching in 2010, say Rosenthal and Morosi.
- MLB.com's Mark Bowman tells readers in his latest mailbag that he wouldn't be surprised to see the Braves trade Jordan Schafer.
- Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues speculates on what the Yankees would have to give up for Josh Johnson.
- ESPN's Buster Olney compares a potential Joe Mauer extension to Todd Helton's contract, in that it'd make up such a large percentage of the Twins' payroll.
- Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel discovered that a handful of teams have avoided four-year commitments to pitchers in recent years.
- Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos talked to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports about the team's strategy to beef up scouting.
- For someone who hasn't been paying attention to the hot stove, Bronson Arroyo has a reasonable take on the Reds' direction and recent Scott Rolen/Ramon Hernandez commitments (MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reporting).
- ESPN's Jerry Crasnick discusses the role of advanced defensive metrics in player acquisitions.
- MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone notes that a very similar report surfaced in three different media outlets within a span of a few hours.
Discussion: Reds Looking To Deal?
SI.com's Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the Cincinnati Reds might field offers for Brandon Phillips, Francisco Cordero, and Bronson Arroyo.
We've heard plenty of speculation that the trade market will be more vibrant this offseason than the free agent market, with so few big names available through free agency. Phillips and Cordero would each match up well with the best free agents available at their respective positions, and even Arroyo posted a 3.84 ERA in 220.1 IP this season. Teams may be more inclined to inquire about their price tags than to dish out long-term contracts to similar or lesser free agents.
The Reds once again finished below .500 last year in the NL Central, and are looking up at the Cardinals, Cubs, and Brewers, who all seem more likely than Cincinnati to add an impact talent this winter. The Reds are not a large-market team; their 2009 payroll sat at $73MM, and we heard earlier this week that it'll be even smaller in 2010. It makes sense that they would explore the return on a few of their bigger contracts and attempt to rebuild around players like Jay Bruce, Edinson Volquez, and Joey Votto (or top first base prospect Yonder Alonso).
These contracts won't be easy for the Reds to move, however. Cordero's deal runs through 2011, with a club option for 2012. In each of the next two seasons, he'll make $12MM, and a limited no-trade clause could complicate matters even more. Arroyo will earn $11MM in 2010, with a $11MM club option for 2011. Phillips is a little cheaper for now, earning $6.75MM in 2010. He'll also make $11MM in 2011 though, with a club option for 2012.
An all-out fire sale seems unlikely, but the Reds could earn salary relief, and maybe even decent prospects, in exchange for Phillips, Cordero or Arroyo (or, for that matter, Aaron Harang). On the other hand, it might kill whatever hope the team has of contending in the near future. So what do you think, Reds fans? Would you like to see the club explore trade options, or is there a better way to restore the franchise to prominence?
Check out Tim's offseason outlook for the Reds to see all of the team's 2010 commitments. And if you missed it earlier today, click here for his analysis of the trade market for starters, which includes Arroyo and Harang.
Heyman’s Latest: Lackey, Tigers, Reds
Jon Heyman of SI.com's last few Twitter updates have provided a variety of intriguing information from around the league. Let's check them out….
- The Milwaukee Brewers and Seattle Mariners could pursue John Lackey, but won't offer a deal worth up to $100MM. FOX Sports suggested earlier in the week that the Brewers weren't likely to be major players for Lackey, but that wasn't necessarily because the team didn't have the money.
- Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski insisted the team wasn't having a "fire sale," but Heyman suggests that the club might listen to offers for Brandon Inge, along with Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson.
- The Cincinnati Reds could put a few of their top players on the trading block, including Brandon Phillips, Francisco Cordero, and Bronson Arroyo.
- Heyman also cites sources that back up the report we heard earlier tonight: Jim Riggleman will manage the Washington Nationals in 2010.
Reds To Cut Payroll, Big Names Could Be Dealt
Add the Reds to the list of teams that are slashing, rather than spending, this off-season. Fanhouse's Ed Price and Jeff Fletcher are reporting that Cincinnati is looking to cut their payroll from $71MM in 2009 to between the $65-$70MM range next season. While it may not sound like much of a reduction, Cot's Baseball Contracts lists the Reds as owing just under $66MM to just ten players for next season, leaving little room to fill out the rest of the roster.
Lagging attendance figures are to blame for the Reds' financial cutbacks. Price and Fletcher noted that attendance at the Great American Ballpark dropped by more than 15 percent from 2008 to 2009. General manager Walt Jocketty was quoted in the piece as saying, "We're going to probably have less to spend this year than we have in the past…It just depends on how [ticket] sales go this offseason."
If Cincinnati does make a deal, the likeliest candidates to be moved are second baseman Brandon Phillips (owed just under $7MM in 2010), and pitchers Aaron Harang ($12.5MM) and Bronson Arroyo ($12.25MM). Phillips, with his .452 slugging percentage over the last four seasons, is the most attractive candidate to other clubs given his power from the second base position and reasonable contract. Harang and Arroyo are both coming off decent years themselves, but Price and Fletcher speculate that their bigger contract numbers would require the Reds to absorb a chunk of their salaries if traded.
One star player who looks to be staying in Cincinnati is closer Francisco Cordero, who Price and Fletcher say the club "would prefer to keep" despite the $25MM he's owed through 2011. A very intriguing trade chip could be young slugger Joey Votto, if the Reds wanted to make room for star prospect Yonder Alonso at first base. Another team could be convinced to take on a bad contract if it meant getting Votto, who isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season.
Reds Report: Volquez, Bruce, Gomes
To put it mildly, this has been a rough year for Reds fans. Edinson Volquez had the Cincinnati faithful buzzing after posting a 3.21 ERA with 9.5 K/9 in his first full season in 2008. After logging just nine starts in the 2009 campaign, Volquez needed surgery to repair damage in his right elbow. The Reds faded fast as their depleted staff wasn't getting much of a lift from their sagging offense. Injuries to Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion (prior to being dealt to Toronto) certainly didn't do them any favors.
However, if the team's recent performance is any indication of what lies ahead, Reds fans might have something to cheer about in 2010. Dusty Baker's squad has gone 19-11 since September 1st, thanks in part to stronger pitching (3.39 team ERA) and the return of Jay Bruce, who missed two months with a broken wrist.
Buster Olney, Baseball Prospectus and the ESPN Insider staff compiled a glance at this past season and what to expect next year in Cincy. An ESPN Insider account is needed to read the article, but here are the brass tacks for those without:
- It's no secret that the Reds don't have a top-flight budget. They opened this season with a payroll of $73MM and owner Bob Castellini isn't going to "go all Steinbrenner" and tack-on much more.
- Further exacerbating their financial woes are their pricey commitments to Bronson Arroyo, Francisco Cordero, Aaron Harang and Scott Rolen. Combined, these four players are owed $46.5 million next season.
- Olney says that considering their lack of flexibility this offseason, Homer Bailey might be their best chance for improvement as he recorded a 2.41 ERA in September. The velocity that made Bailey such a highly-coveted prospect has returned, with his fastball being clocked at an average of 94.5 MPH this year. This is a big step-up from his previous big league work and could spell an even bigger jump in 2010.
- Baseball Prospectus says that their "acceptable" rate of 4.5 runs allowed per game is due in part to their much-improved defense. It will be interesting to see if defensive-minded yet weak-hitting shortstop Paul Janish will be the Reds' starter next season. Manager Dusty Baker said on Friday that a "definitive decision" hasn't been made yet.
- Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus notes that the combined efforts of all Reds batting in the top two lineup spots resulted in a slash line of .245/.301/.354. When Willy Taveras hit the DL in August, Dusty Baker put rookie Drew Stubbs and the aforementioned Janish at the top of the order. The team has gone 27-15 since then, but Jaffe attributes most of the credit for that to the improved performance of the pitching staff.
- The "Rumor Central" portion of the piece encourages Reds fans that are anxious to see the team acquire a big bat to consider what the offense is capable of if they are healthy. Injury-free seasons from Bruce and Votto should give Cincinnati a major boost.
- The report says to expect the Reds to tender Jonny Gomes an offer as he is arbitration-eligible. This should come as no surprise as Gomes has belted 20 HRs in 311 plate appearances while posting .266/.338/.540.
- Jaffe says that Jocketty could deal Arroyo or Harang to give the team room to make a mid-level signing this winter. He adds, "…It's difficult to envision this team breaking out of the middle of the pack without keen vision and bold steps."
Reds Rumors: Looking To 2010
The Reds seem unlikely to make a move. As they stand, John Fay of The Cincinatti Enquirer asks whether the Reds have a shot at making a run in 2010. His answer?
“It will depend on how the young players develop. Adding [Scott] Rolen’s salary took away all of the flexibility the Reds had in their payroll. They’d have to move one of the aforementioned veteran pitchers in the offseason to open money to pursue free agents. That’s probably not going to happen. Again, when the Reds got Rolen, it was a clear signal that CEO Bob Castellini thought the Reds were a short-term fix from contending in 2010.”
The “aforementioned veteran pitchers” he mentions: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, or Francisco Cordero. Fay notes their are several holes in which young players will need to step up. He breaks them down by position.
Odds And Ends: Chavez, Arroyo, Thome, Millwood
More links for the morning…
- Eric Chavez told Joe Stiglich of the Oakland Tribune that he would consider extending his career as a DH, even though he'd prefer to play defense, too.
- Does Bronson Arroyo want to go to a contender? No, he'd rather stay in Cincinnati and pitch for the Reds next year, according to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News.
- Jim Thome wants to play next year and make a run at 600 career homers, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Thome is just 36 homers away from reaching the milestone.
- Kevin Millwood's $12MM option for 2010 becomes guaranteed if he pitches 19.0 more innings and reaches 180 for the season, so he's only about three starts away.